Netflix Chases YouTube, Meta's AI Photo Grab, and Disney Fights the FCC

7:31Matt Belloni:let's just say no i like pierce but i'm joking but there's a lot of that trust me having gone to the can film festival for many years you know there were a lot of harvey parties there were a lot of european movie producer parties on those yachts and like you literally you get on the boat and you're like, where am I going right now?

7:48Kara Swisher:Yeah, I went, I'm going to tell one yacht story. I have been on exactly one yacht and it was Eddie Lampert's yacht. And someone made me, some ad person's like, come out and see this fucking yacht because it's quite, he lives there apparently. And he was fascinating to talk to actually. He, you know, he was the investor. He did see her. So I knew all about him and everything. And it was really interesting. And I was like, after being on the yacht and it was beautiful. I was like, I don't ever want to be on a yacht again. And this is kind of soulless in a weird way that made me uncomfortable. But the only thing that was great is I, of course, I wandered around the whole yacht looking at everything because I'm that person who wanders around yachts and looks at your things.

8:28Kara Swisher:And I opened a door and inside was the guy that did her, Spike Jones. Spike Jones. The guy who manages Madonna. Gaia Sari. Gaia Sari. And one other person. It was a famous person. And I was like, oh, hey. And they were just in a room talking. And I was like, and I closed the door really fast and ran. It was a strange meeting.

8:50Matt Belloni:I would definitely accept an invite for David Geffen's yacht. Yeah. I think that's fun. And when he used to post photos on Instagram of the weird collection of people, it would be like Tom Hanks and Oprah and Jeff Bezos and like weird people. I just wonder, like, it's just such a, it seems like an awkward situation when you accept an invite to go on one of those yachts and you don't really know who else is going to be there. and then all of a sudden you're on a yacht for a few days with this collection of random famous rich people?

9:19Kara Swisher:I do not do this. I literally don't. It's so not my world. But anyway, I would agree with you about Cannes. I just think it's fine to have a business conference. And it is actually effective for people who are selling ads. Oh, trust me.

9:32Matt Belloni:I got many invites to go next year.

9:34Kara Swisher:Yes, yes. Yeah, anyway, that would be funny. We should do a whole thing. Is this a tacky boondoggle? We're going to do that next year. We're going to completely work that. Anyway, we've got a lot to get into today, so let's dig in. First, I want to begin with, I think, a pretty big story. Lawyers for several states are finalizing an antitrust lawsuit challenging Paramount's acquisition of Warner Brothers, likely to be filed next week. It is going to be filed. I know a lot about this. They have been in touch.

9:59Matt Belloni:It's politically untenable to not file at this point. Correct.

10:02Kara Swisher:That's correct. Let me just put it out. Sue could interfere with Paramount's plan to complete the deal in the coming weeks. The DOJ cleared the acquisition rather quickly last month. Talk about this, the lawsuit. Obviously, it's Rob Bonta from California, but there are other states. There's several states involved. And, of course, there's the ongoing British, the person who's head of essentially competition in Britain, is saying she's sort of adjacent curious of slowing this thing down at the very least, which was unusual for her to say. Several British people are like, ah, that's not great for them.

10:36Kara Swisher:It could be a leverage thing. Talk about the entire thing and where you see it going.

10:41Matt Belloni:It's an interesting one because, first of all, the antitrust case here is not as strong as some other ones recently. Absolutely not. Live Nation, et cetera. Like this one, you know, Paramount and Warners are not leaders in the industry, and they're battling these big tech players like Netflix, Amazon, Apple. So it's, you know, when they say this merger is pro competition, it's sort of their buzzword, they always say in their press releases. Like, they're not totally wrong. If this works and they can create a legitimate competitor to a Netflix, to an Amazon, like that is pro competition. Now, obviously, the wreckage within Hollywood to do this is going to be thousands of jobs lost and a legacy studio vanishing.

11:32Matt Belloni:And that's what's gotten everybody up in arms. The state action, it's going to be tough, but they need to clear a injunction to actually stop this. They need to go to a court and a court needs to say, OK, not only do you have a likelihood of winning here, I'm going to enjoin this merger from closing. That's the real leverage. If they can get that, then they're going to be in the best position to extract whatever, not whatever, but significant concessions. Because I think that's what this is all about.

12:08Kara Swisher:Explain what's happening behind the scenes. Obviously, Megan Del Raheem, who is their general counsel, is in the middle of this. He's been in the middle of the British thing. They're fighting it on two fronts. And I think the British group essentially just wants stuff like promises. Yeah.

12:22Matt Belloni:I actually think the states want stuff, too.

12:24Kara Swisher:Yes, they do want stuff. So explain what, first start with the British. Just for people who know, there's a big Harry Potter studio out there. There may be some people visiting it, the tourism stuff. They want jobs, some children's programming stuff. Explain what they want in Britain versus the U.S.

12:39Matt Belloni:Yeah. So, first of all, there's varying reports as to what they actually want because they haven't actually said. The children's programming thing doesn't seem to be that big of a problem. Paramount has a joint venture in the U.K. to distribute movies. and it's with Comcast, with NBCUniversal for the Universal movies. And there's a scenario where they exit that. Now, they may actually want to do that on their own because the Ellisons may want to just not have a partner there. But that's one area where they are together with a competitor that they may have to divest there. There's also some television interest there that they have.

13:21Matt Belloni:The real goal is to get them to concede to certain things. And if it's a divestment of certain television interests, if it's an exit from this joint venture, that's something where they can claim victory and then they can move on.

13:37Kara Swisher:Or jobs, job retention.

13:39Matt Belloni:Well, I don't know, actually. That has been something that the European regulators have gone after in the past.

13:45Kara Swisher:They have.

13:46Matt Belloni:So that could be—now, I think that is something that is going to be much more relevant for the state cases. Rob Bonta in California, he's interested in preserving jobs and getting a commitment from the Ellisons to continue to operate Warner Brothers and Paramount separately. You know, David Ellison is committed to releasing 30 movies per year from the two studios in theaters, 15 a year, which is a pretty robust slate. Right.

14:13Kara Swisher:Committed. He has no he doesn't have to.

14:15Matt Belloni:He said that's that's my point is that maybe they get that in writing. Maybe there is some kind of commitment to do that for 10 years in writing. Maybe there's a commitment to avoid the sweeping job losses at the different studios. So they're looking here. The strategy is to try to use the lawsuit and the threat of a delay here. Because remember,$650 million per quarter, Paramount has to pay to Warner Discovery in a ticking fee after October 1st. So if this drags on, it gets more and more expensive for them. And they're trying to use that leverage to get stuff. I believe that ultimately a concession here might be that they would try to get them to sell CNN.

15:07Matt Belloni:Because obviously this is a political concern. that is not an antitrust concern. And Bonta has kind of punted on that. But I know that in the attorney general's circle, that is something they have discussed as a goal. They have.

15:23Kara Swisher:I would agree with you. I would agree.

15:25Matt Belloni:The problem is that's not really an antitrust remedy.

15:28Kara Swisher:Right. How can you make someone do that? I mean, a part of me is like, good idea. The second is like, can you really make someone do, sell something you don't want to sell?

15:35Matt Belloni:And the CNN business, while still robust, hundreds of millions of dollars a year in profits, That's not the basis of this merger. Like the linear networks are not.

15:45Kara Swisher:No, but it's a sticking point. It's a stick. It's political.

15:48Matt Belloni:And this has become a political issue. Now, the Ellisons made it political by jumping into bed with the Trump administration so much. But now you have Elizabeth Warren, you have Lena Kahn, you have all the antitrust people that are putting pressure on other Democrats like Rob Bonta, who wants to have a future in Democratic politics. and he needs to do something here and get some kind of concession or trophy that he can go back to the Democrats and say, we let this merger go through, but we got X, Y, Z.

16:19Kara Swisher:So what do you think he can get that? Do you think the Ellisons would disgorge that, for example? Or what else? What else could he get? What else? What would be as important?

16:30Matt Belloni:I know there is a document that resides at Paramount that has all of the things that they are willing to concede. And it's just a question of how far down the menu they will go and what they actually ask for. I don't know if they're going to agree to preserve jobs specifically. I mean, if you look at this company, they have$80 billion in debt. There's no other way.

16:56Kara Swisher:No other way. No other way.

16:58Matt Belloni:Yeah. The entire transaction is premised on significant synergies. So if you all of a sudden agree not to fire people and then you do this deal and you're stuck with all this cost and you're trying to appease your lenders and your Middle East backers like that puts you in a really tough spot.

17:18Kara Swisher:It does. And many people off the record who, you know, sort of performerly say, yeah, great idea of a new strong studio are like the money. Like, good luck. Like every smart person I know is like, I recall having a meeting with David Zasloff when I said they're not going to be able to do anything because the costs are too high and they have to cut too much and their debt is too high. I just said I was just a math person. So it doesn't look like they can grow easily. And he called me and said, we should have drinks and talk about this. And I was like, I'm sorry, I'm a math person. It just doesn't work.

17:50Kara Swisher:And you have to cut. There's no growth for you anywhere.

17:53Matt Belloni:Well, they premised that merger on a revenue number that never materialized. They put it out there that the TV group would generate a significant amount of profit every year. And it just kept going down and down and down to the point where almost immediately they had to revise their aspirations and the whole thing fell apart.

18:12Kara Swisher:That's right. And I was like, I'm sorry, I don't know. Are you a magician? Are you going to start selling drugs? Like, I was like, what? Explain to me where the money's coming. And this here, it's quantumly, except that they're rich. And even if you're rich, that's the wild card here. Even if you're rich, I wouldn't say Larry Ellison's cheap, but Larry Ellison is cheap, right? Like, ultimately, do you want to throw this money at your son? Right? Essentially, do you want to give him someone who has a questionable, like record of money making, right? Not an enormous, money. Skydance was not a big moneymaker.

18:45Kara Swisher:And so that's the question is, how rich are you and how much? To me, speaking of yachts, it's like a big leaky yacht. I was like, how much do you want to put on the yacht? Like, how much do you want to?

18:56Matt Belloni:We have precedent here. Remember, Larry Ellison funded Annapurna, which was Megan Ellison's film production company, David's sister. That was very prolific for a decade and made a ton of Oscar winning movies. You mentioned Her by Spike Jonze. That was a Megan Ellison production. And then at some point, Larry said, enough is enough. You've lost so much money. I can't continue to bankroll this. And the place dramatically downsized.

19:25Kara Swisher:Right, right. And so the question is, is he, that was Larry Ellison many years ago. Is he willing to do this for his son? To me, Larry Ellison is the fulcrum here for everything. It's like, I'm not spending, I don't want to pay for this muffler. I don't want, and And like, the question is, does he really, I don't think he gives a rat's ass about CNN in any way whatsoever.

19:46Matt Belloni:Oh, see, I've heard differently. I've heard that that was the case in the beginning, but that he has come around to the influence of it and cares very much about Israel, for instance. Right. Yes, that is true. And wants to kind of put the media on the right track. And he's been spending time with President Trump. And I think that both he and David now are more interested, not as a business. They know that news is not a great business, but a lot of this merger is premised on the combination of CBS News and CNN and all the people they can fire at those news networks to combine their news gathering operations.

20:26Matt Belloni:And that, I think, is a reason why they may not offer to sell CNN as part of this, even though it might be politically a winner.

20:35Kara Swisher:Interesting. Yeah, I'm rich enough. I don't have to. To finish up, what happens then? What is what can Bonta get if he can't get that? Do you think he has a chance of getting that? You say no, because Larry likes it.

20:46Matt Belloni:Yeah, I don't think he's going to be able to get it. I think they want it, but I don't think he's going to be able to get it. And it becomes complicated because of, you know, it's not a real it opens a lot of doors that I'm not sure the Democrats even want to open because something overtly political as a concession for a merger. But I do think they can get the movie thing, some kind of commitment in writing. I think that to release 30 movies a year, I think they can get a commitment to buy a certain amount of content or make a certain amount of content in California, which, as you know, is a big deal these days with all the runaway productions.

21:23Matt Belloni:And that will be something that Bonta could get. You know, I don't know what the specifics of what the other states might want. You know, New Jersey is one of the states considering, and they have a big production hub there. Maybe they can get some commitments to film there. So I think it's going to be much more about investment than it is about preventing the loss of jobs. Although maybe they could get some commitment for, you know, only reducing 10, 15 percent of the workforce per year for five years, something like that.

21:54Kara Swisher:Yeah, something. So that's where you think it's going.

21:56Matt Belloni:I do. I think that these states don't have the appetite for a two, three-year antitrust war. And Paramount certainly doesn't have the appetite for that. So there will be some kind of settlement. But again, the leverage point comes not from filing the lawsuit, but from getting an injunction that would prevent this deal from closing.

22:16Kara Swisher:And if they get an injunction, they might be able to get the other stuff too. Exactly. Because that would be an enormous win for Bonta. That would send him right to Governor Bill.

22:24Matt Belloni:I don't know about that. He's not even running this time, but maybe in the future. But yeah, you know.

22:29Kara Swisher:Have you met him? He's running for governor. Just FYI.

22:32Matt Belloni:Right. But not this time. But, you know, no. Or eight years if Becerra wins.

22:37Kara Swisher:Yes, that's right. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see. But in any case, he's a he's a he's an up and coming politician.

22:42Matt Belloni:Yeah. Listen, if we get President Newsom, maybe he could be attorney general.

22:46Kara Swisher:Yeah, that's right. Well, I don't think So anyway, let's move on. Disney has told the FCC that ABC, The View, should continue to qualify as a bona fide news program, making exempt from federal equal time rules for political candidates. The filing comes as the FCC has been probing whether The View violates those equal time rules, a notable line from the filing. The First Amendment does not permit the government to sit in an editor's chair, yet that is the seat the commission now proposes to take. ABC launched a campaign, a very aggressive campaign, to encourage reviewers to make their thoughts known to the FCC in June, and the commission received over 76 ,000 comments about the case.

23:22Kara Swisher:As you know, I think Brendan Gar is a moron, and he's way overstepped here for reasons unknown.

23:28Matt Belloni:Well, reasons unknown?

23:29Kara Swisher:Well, he wants a big political career. Yeah, he wants Donald Trump to love him. Yes, exactly. It's pathetic in so many ways. But I bet Donald Trump doesn't love him, by the way. So talk about the consequences here for both sides, because I think Brendan Carter has overstepped, especially in his statements, because his statements go way over the line of any FCC chairman I've heard in the many years I've covered.

23:54Matt Belloni:Yeah, it's interesting here because this is all happening with the backdrop of Trump not necessarily being as powerful in the media sphere as he was even a year ago. You know, we're heading into lame duck status. The polling is where it is. and it's not, you know, I think that Brendan Carr was a little bit surprised that Disney came back so aggressively.

24:17Kara Swisher:Yes, he was, yeah.

24:18Matt Belloni:And he's now on Twitter, like, trying to counter this pretty normal strategy. I mean, when there's ever a carriage fight amongst distributors and content provider or any political...

24:31Kara Swisher:Disney's always good at it.

24:32Matt Belloni:Yeah, they go after their fans.

24:34Kara Swisher:The New York one, I loved watching the New York one. That was a real fun one.

24:38Matt Belloni:And shocker, people who watch The View are interested in The View having the freedom to have on any guests that they want.

24:45Kara Swisher:Right, yeah.

24:46Matt Belloni:And if Disney communicates to them to stand up to the government to keep your show that you like as your show, they're going to respond. So I think this was totally predictable. The most interesting angle to me is through the lens of the new CEO of Disney, Josh DeMar.

25:02Kara Swisher:Yes, exactly.

25:03Matt Belloni:He is being aggressive here, and he's pushing back on this one. And he's pushing back on the dumb Kimmel thing, Jimmy Kimmel thing, where they claim that, you know, they're going after Disney because of their DEI policies. But we all know they were trying to put fear and censor Jimmy Kimmel. And Disney's really fighting back on that. And I don't know that Bob Iger, the previous CEO, would have been as aggressive on this.

25:28Kara Swisher:I think he wanted to be. I think he felt like he was, that the way Jimmy Kimmel went down wasn't exactly what happened. Like, I think he was he what he had been supportive of the way it went down because he didn't say anything. He didn't call reporters. He didn't you know, he didn't really handle that very well.

25:45Matt Belloni:Well, Iger did an interview with the FT a couple of weeks ago. And he said that he didn't like Kimmel's comments about Charlie Kirk and wanted him to apologize, which he had never said before.

25:56Kara Swisher:Yes. But I think he also felt that he had supported Kimmel over the many years. You know what I mean? and that his, you know, I think he was surprised by the pile on him. And, you know, I just, I said to him, well, why were you surprised? Like, people like Jimmy Kimmel. It seemed ridiculous what Carr was doing. Like, it doesn't, I think he felt like he had a long career and people should have given him a little more credit over the time. But talk about why Josh is doing this. I think it's really interesting to be one of your early moves.

26:26Matt Belloni:He's a different person and he has a different view on this. And I think that the people advising him are telling him that they are in the right here. I mean, you mentioned Eric Gardner. He did a whole analysis of this for Buck. Disney has the upper hand here. And I think Brendan Carr knows it. They're just trying to be bullies. And Disney is a really big, popular corporation that people have an emotional connection to. So I think that he's playing his hand here. and they know that they ultimately, if this did get litigated, they would come out on top. So why not be more aggressive?

27:02Kara Swisher:Well, you know, it is interesting, the pushback. I find, I think it's the timing is correct because one of the things when I was arguing with him during the Kimmel times, a lot of the Disney executives, I was like, he's going down. Trump's popularity is only headed one direction at this point. I was like, you all can look like heroes at this moment by just stick, you know, given the whole thing that happened with Stephanopoulos and everything else, which is, I suspect there was probably more problems there to litigate that. In this case, it's a clean shot against an oaf, like who's attached to a very increasingly unpopular president.

27:35Kara Swisher:I was like, I don't know. And people love the view like they do. The fans love it.

27:40Matt Belloni:And here's the thing. When Iger came back to Disney in 2022, one of his big priorities was to depoliticize the brand. The previous CEO, Bob Chapek, had gotten into this big fight in Florida with Ron DeSantis. You had Republicans saying, you know, boycott Disney. And that's Disney is an everybody brand.

28:02Kara Swisher:You had white supremacists outside of Disney. I know that was troubling to the executives. You know, they were marching in front of white supremacists, if you recall. People don't remember this, but I do.

28:11Matt Belloni:But Disney is an everybody brand. And Josh DeMauro is a is a brand guy. So I I understand why they wouldn't want to get into a fight with a Republican president. And if you noticed last week, no other network went harder on the anniversary of America than Disney ABC. They literally did 24 hours of programming. And they got 40 million viewers out of it. But my point is like, they're trying, Disney is trying to walk both sides here, publicly be very kind of pro-America and pro every political party, but while also now standing up for itself, which it did not do in the Stephanopoulos matter.

28:54Kara Swisher:Right, and it will succeed here? I feel Ben and Carr is a paper tiger.

28:59Matt Belloni:Oh, I think they will absolutely succeed. I don't know if he'll back down completely, but this will eventually go away.

29:04Kara Swisher:And then they will get the news out, correct? Yes, you mean the news exemption

29:10Matt Belloni:or the equal time exemption? Yeah, I think Disney will win on that.

29:13Kara Swisher:Yeah, it's clearly an interview show. It's kind of ridiculous on so many levels.

29:17Matt Belloni:Yeah. The annoying thing is that they've kind of been chilling themselves during this whole process and not having political guests on as much.

29:26Kara Swisher:Well, they had Vance on recently. They did. They did. They had Vance on. But, yeah, you're right. I think they definitely have. But, you know, they do better with, like, you know, the guy from just, you know, the handsome guy. You know, that's what they do better with.

29:39Matt Belloni:I'm going to take your word on the programming of The View. I am not a regular viewer.

29:42Kara Swisher:Oh, I was just a guest host on it for two days, and I had a ball. It's so much fun and such a great audience. And one of the things that I, you know, there's a lot of declines in watching, but it's a really well-done show. It's really, it exactly meets its audience, and it's clever and interesting. And oddly, you know, in a lot of these, when you're on cable shows, as you know, they're lacking of substance. It feels substantive, actually. It's actually a good talk. And so I think that's why it works.

30:11Matt Belloni:Barbara Walters, genius, was on to something.

30:15Kara Swisher:My legend. If I had to pick anyone who was one of the finest interviews in the land, it would be Barbara Walters.

30:19Matt Belloni:She does not get enough credit for conceiving that show.

30:22Kara Swisher:Yeah, I agree. I agree. And also, by the way, Whoopi Goldberg runs that thing. She's really good at her job. She really is and really creates a really interesting environment that is unexpected. Anyway, I like being on it. I enjoy it. And I hope for the best for them because they really produce a great show. And good for Josh DeMauro for this being one of his first things, because he's going to win anyway. Okay, Matt, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Netflix's sophomore slump.

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34:21Kara Swisher:Matt, we're back. Netflix is getting into the short form content business. The company announced This week, it's partnered with BuzzFeed, Conde Nast, Hearst, People, and various Penske Media brands to bring the digital videos to the platform. These videos will range from three-minute chores to 20-minute episodes, focusing on travel, cooking, fashion, as well as celebrity content profiles and viral content. All these people have been making these extra, what I call shoulder content that you see. Oh, I used to do it.

34:45Matt Belloni:When I ran Holler to Porter, we had to do the video version. Video version.

34:50Kara Swisher:Conde Nast does actually a pretty good job. They all do a pretty good job at it. This announcement comes in the wake of a new report that Netflix is struggling to retain fans between the first and second seasons of top shows, with some shows shedding 50 percent of their audience. Engagement is slowing, too. The amount of time customers spent watching Netflix last year grew by less than 2 percent. Talk about why they're doing this. And just for people, I last yesterday went on Brian Williams' new show, which is they've also bought a bunch of podcasters. I think the one that's doing really well is The Breakfast Club.

35:19Matt Belloni:That's the one they're talking about. We'll know next week when their engagement report comes out for the first half of the year.

35:24Kara Swisher:Yeah, but I don't think they're high. I don't, I feel like they're not.

35:27Matt Belloni:I have heard internally the numbers are not high, but it's early days. That's what they're saying. They're encouraged by the trends.

35:33Kara Swisher:Yeah, but the Breakfast Club, from what I understand, is a real standout. That's what I heard from them. So talk about this whole thing and include what, it's not really podcasting. It was a TV show that I, it was an interview. It was like, you know, Charlie Rose with 100 % less creepy. It was just, I don't know. You know what I mean? And it was like, that's what the set looked like.

35:50Matt Belloni:Well, they're calling them video podcasts. I mean, there's a distinction there. I think the guilds would love for them to call them talk shows because they have to pay more for them. Fine, it was a talk show. This is all just about Netflix having YouTube envy.

36:04Kara Swisher:Yes, exactly.

36:05Matt Belloni:They look at the engagement report every month from Nielsen. They're getting their butts kicked by YouTube. They know why, you know, so much of the viewing on YouTube is this lower quality, you know, user generated. It's just, it's a different product than Netflix. It's free. Netflix is not free. And they're saying, how can we boost our engagement numbers without going full on user generated and becoming YouTube, but having enough on the platform where people start to consider it the everyday. day. You just go there to watch video.

36:46Kara Swisher:Yeah, I think it's tough.

36:47Matt Belloni:It's sad to me. Netflix has such a great thing going. They're just so it's so in their head that they've got to match YouTube because they see if this trajectory continues, YouTube will eat everything. And then ultimately they'll wake up in five years and they will have to put shows on YouTube because it's so big and so dominant.

37:05Kara Swisher:Right. That is probably true.

37:07Matt Belloni:Because ads, I mean, everybody's been talking about the Netflix stock being down 40 % from last year. And part of that is because they went after Warner Brothers and all the investors are like, whoa, wait a second. You guys thought you needed a big studio to compete here? I thought you were the darling of media. But what it really is, I think now is investors are looking for the growth narrative from Netflix. How are they going to continue to grow? And internally, they see the ads platform as being a growth engine.

37:37Kara Swisher:It is. It's done rather well.

37:38Matt Belloni:It is because it's not huge. I mean, Netflix, I mean, Amazon turned on ads for all prime video viewers and it instantly became a gigantic ads business. Netflix did not do that. It's an opt in. You get to pay less money to get ads.

37:52Kara Swisher:It's actually more attractive across the globe from what I understand.

37:56Matt Belloni:Yeah, people like free or less money and they're willing to tolerate ads. but they need the inventory. They need people on it because they're coming from this position of so many of their subscribers are non-ads customers that even though they're growing the ads tier and they're adding a bunch, you know, the percentage of new customers that sign up, most of them do so for the ad tier. The ad tier. They want inventory. And the best way to do it is this lower quality, lower cost, you know, in a sports term, a baseball, you know, a middle reliever. Someone that just eats up innings.

38:30Kara Swisher:So you bring all these things in.

38:32Matt Belloni:And that's what these podcasts are. They're looking, you know, Netflix is also the evening streamer. People watch at night. And YouTube is the daytime streamer. People watch at work or at home while they're doing laundry or whatever. And they want to compete for those daytime eyeballs.

38:48Kara Swisher:Which of those businesses, what do you think of these three? I don't, I think the three minute shorts are fine. I just don't get it. I don't know why. One of the things, you know, also what they picked, it's not very contrary. except for maybe Charlemagne. It's not very controversial, right? It's very, you know, good, but not like, wow. It's like they just signed a cooking show, you know, yesterday. And it's not, it's nothing that's in the top tiers of podcasters, which is really interesting.

39:15Matt Belloni:Well, Bill Simmons is there. Bill Simmons, yeah. Bill's a big sports podcaster.

39:19Kara Swisher:Yeah.

39:19Matt Belloni:And, you know, they have a bunch of ringer shows. And my show, disclosure, my show's a ringer show. But they have like the Rewatchables, which is a big show. And they have some barstool shows. and stuff, and they're doing more. And I've heard internally they want to do a lot more. And, you know, they're testing it out. This is how Netflix works. They go into an area of content, and if it works, they do a ton more. They started doing crime documentaries. They worked, and now they do a fire hose of crime documentaries. They started doing these choose-your-own-adventure shows where the audience would choose, and it didn't work, so they stopped doing it.

39:56Matt Belloni:And this is how they operate. You know, it's just to me, I wish Netflix would be Netflix and not try to be YouTube. But I understand why they're doing it.

40:06Kara Swisher:Why would if you are a podcaster or anyone else to do that? Why do that? If you if you have a good money, just the money they give you.

40:14Matt Belloni:Yeah, listen, some people like the prestige of being on Netflix. It's it's a it's definitely a cooler brand than YouTube where anybody could be on it. And, you know, if Netflix is successful here, they will change consumer behavior. Very difficult to do that. But their theory here is if we put enough on here and if we have some breakout shows, if you're a Charlemagne fan or whatever, you're going to go on. And then all of a sudden, on your next jog, you don't go to YouTube for the podcast you normally listen to. You go to Netflix. And that's how you change consumer behavior.

40:50Kara Swisher:Yeah, right. By the way, just for people to know, Netflix has made a deal for video episodes of Vox Media Podcasts, Unexplainable and Switched on Pop, which is – they have a very – it's a pretty good ad business, but they'll do better on Netflix, I think. So people are deciding where –

41:07Matt Belloni:Do you think they'll do better on Netflix for viewership than on YouTube?

41:09Kara Swisher:I think they'll do better on money. On money, yeah, because that's what you're sacrificing right now.

41:14Matt Belloni:Yes, that's correct. You can reach on YouTube for money from Netflix and then the promise of maybe down the line, the engagement numbers catch up.

41:22Kara Swisher:That's right. You know, something like a pivot, like we wouldn't because we're doing so well on YouTube and other places. But it's just it's an interesting juxtaposition. A lot of these companies will sort of test out certain of their products on it.

41:35Matt Belloni:I don't think that the engagement on these videos is going to be very high. I agree with you. Especially at the beginning.

41:41Kara Swisher:I agree.

41:41Matt Belloni:Most of them are low quality shoulder like the Penske videos. Most of them are auto plays that play while you're reading an article.

41:49Kara Swisher:Yeah, but they're sitting over on YouTube doing nothing. So it's fine. So why not? So the last thing with Netflix, you know, all the investors worried about their deal making. What is that? Will their next deal be NBCUniversal? What is what is talk a little bit about the big question?

42:06Matt Belloni:I think I think that they are likely to at least explore this. because what we learned from the Warner chase is that they feel they, they don't need, but they would very much benefit from strong intellectual property. It's so difficult to create awareness, to create, um, you know, fandoms on your own, even though you're as large as Netflix and they've done it successfully many times, don't get me wrong, but having Jurassic park, having the minions,

42:41Kara Swisher:The Odyssey.

42:42Matt Belloni:Having, well, that's different because that's a filmmaker relationship. But you know what? Chris Nolan won't make movies for Netflix.

42:50Kara Swisher:Right.

42:50Matt Belloni:There is a class of filmmaker that will not make movies for Netflix because they do not give their product a theatrical release meaningfully. So they would get into that business. And if it's like what they said with Warners, they would keep the theatrical business running, at least at first, on its own. So I think that they will at least look. I don't know if they'll make a formal bid. There's a complicating factor because NBC is involved and they definitely do not want to own linear networks. The other aspect of Netflix that is important here is sports. NBC Universal has the second best collection of sports rights, second to ESPN.

43:27Matt Belloni:They do. They've got Sunday Night Football, which is the highest rated show on television. They've got Major League Baseball. They've got golf. They've got a huge new NBA deal that they just did. And they have a subscale streamer in the U.S., Peacock, which only has 47 million subscribers. And they've got all of these sports rights. Netflix, they've got to take a look at this.

43:52Kara Swisher:Yeah. So what else would they take a look at? There's smaller ones like Lionsgate and others, right?

43:55Matt Belloni:I know. And they've had the opportunity to go after those in the past and have not. It's got to be special. I honestly, I don't know.

44:03Kara Swisher:Who's another buyer for this? Is it going to get bought at all? Who's another buyer for NBC?

44:07Matt Belloni:Well, that gets to the larger question as to whether NBCUniversal is a buyer or a seller here.

44:12Kara Swisher:Seller, right, yeah.

44:13Matt Belloni:They maintain that they can 100 % go it alone and they can be a buyer and they can look at things. The speculation is about perhaps a video game company like Take-Two. they did look at electronic arts a number of years ago I think they're either going to do something now or they're going to wait for a while there's tax implications of doing this spinoff so if it actually happens I'm skeptical that it will get to the actual spinoff I think Netflix if they're going

44:40Kara Swisher:to come in this is a Warner situation

44:42Matt Belloni:yeah if Netflix is going to come in they're going to do it soon

44:46Kara Swisher:right soon and they would make a deal for it would they get it is there another buyer

44:50Matt Belloni:I mean who knows Paramount No. I joked about that on the town. I don't think they have the appetite for that right now. I think Larry is all tapped out. No, they can't.

45:00Kara Swisher:They can't afford it.

45:01Matt Belloni:You know, there's only so many Saudi and, you know, Middle East moneymen that you can go to.

45:08Kara Swisher:Yeah, yeah.

45:09Matt Belloni:But there's a bunch of private equity money out there. You know, there's Apple sitting there. Apple, everybody's been speculating in Hollywood for years that Apple would buy a studio. Bob Iger keeps talking about how he wanted to merge Disney with Apple back in the day. You know, Apple has shown no inclination. I talked to Eddie Q about this. He said, no way. But you know what? You never know. There's new leadership at Apple. Maybe he'll say, what are we doing in content? We have all these great shows, but we have very little engagement. And engagement comes from library. having 100 years of movies and television shows to keep your audience on the platform.

45:50Kara Swisher:100%. And Disney?

45:52Matt Belloni:I don't think so. Do you think NBCUniversal is going to be the first thing Josh DiMauro does? I think it's going to be in the AI or gaming or something like that. It's not going to be a traditional merger. And they would have to sell one of the broadcast networks or get the rules changed.

46:11Kara Swisher:Yeah, or sell them both.

46:13Matt Belloni:I don't think they'd sell them both. I mean, they've had that opportunity. They've doubled, tripled down on keeping that stuff. They are, you know, integrating it all. And the broadcast TV business is still a business. Cable is not, but broadcast still is.

46:29Kara Swisher:Yep, it absolutely is. Anyway, really interesting. Next up, Meta has released an AI image generator called Muse Image, which the company is calling the creative partner that knows your world. I can't believe these people write these things. The generator comes with a feature that lets users create AI images based on people's Instagram photos, and any adult with a public Instagram account was automatically opted in. Kara Swisher has opted out now, just so you know.

46:52Matt Belloni:You know, I saw your post on Threads, and I tried to do that last night, and I couldn't find the button to do that.

46:58Kara Swisher:I will show you. I will send you a step-by-step. The company also previewed an AI video generator, which will be coming available in the next month. What is these people? Are they just constant information thieves? They just continually do this.

47:13Matt Belloni:Listen, it's a ask forgiveness, not permission strategy. It's been the case from the very beginning in Silicon Valley, and it takes the Hollywood people to step up. The talent agency, CAA, put out a pretty good statement last night. They said no one's image, name, and likeness, voice, or creative work should be used by a third party, including AI models, without clear documented consent. They're telling them essentially what the industry said about Sora when OpenAI launched it. It's like, don't make this opt out. Make it opt in.

47:46Kara Swisher:Right, exactly. They hate opt in.

47:48Matt Belloni:I know, because nobody does it.

47:49Kara Swisher:They've hated opt in since AOL. They hate opt in. They hate it.

47:53Matt Belloni:I get it. Listen, it's a much less convenient business to have to ask permission. That's correct. But that's kind of how it works when you have rights like copyright and name image likeness rights.

48:04Kara Swisher:They don't care. As Walt Mossberg famously said, they're rapacious information thieves. And they continue with that quality.

48:11Matt Belloni:It's not just information, though. This is like, you know, literally, unless he opts out, they could take a Tom Cruise photo that he posted himself and suck it into their model and create a video based on Tom Cruise.

48:24Kara Swisher:That's correct. That is it's like it's nuts. And of course, Tom Cruise is good for the platform being on it and putting all this marketing stuff. It's a win win situation for them and Tom Cruise. And instead, they kick him in the teeth.

48:35Matt Belloni:But they know that they're so big now that Tom Cruise can't market his movies without them. That's the problem here. It's the problem with all of these new innovations is that Meta looks at it, says, oh, we will just clone this and use our massive distribution to put that person out of business or we buy them.

48:53Kara Swisher:Right, yeah, yeah, buy or build. That's how they think. Anyway.

48:57Matt Belloni:They buy, they buy.

48:58Kara Swisher:I don't think this is a great move and I think they'll roll it back. That's my feeling. I think they know they're on thin ice here with people.

49:04Matt Belloni:We'll see how the studios react this next week. You know, they haven't actually launched the video component yet.

49:10Kara Swisher:Right, right. But you can turn it off. I recommend everyone turn it off until we know more. All right. And I'll tell you how to do it, Matt. All right. Let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the Sam Altman's movie fate and a little bit about The Odyssey.

49:27Kara Swisher:I'm Seth Matlins.

49:28Matt Belloni:My new show, Create or Destroy Reimagining Marketing, explores how every decision a company makes, not just the marketing ones, but the HR, IR, pricing, org design, and planning ones, the ones most don't consider marketing at all, contribute to either creating value or destroying it. Each week, I sit down with CMOs, CEOs, founders, cultural thinkers, the people building, breaking, and reimagining how businesses grow or don't for conversations about what creates value and what destroys it. It's a business show. It's a marketing show. The creator destroys the show that argues they've always been the same thing from the Vox Media Podcast Network and the Wisdomist Company.

50:05Kara Swisher:New episodes drop weekly on YouTube and your favorite podcast app.

50:14Kara Swisher:Matt, we're back with more headlines. The Sam Altman-focused movie, Artificial, has found a new home at an indie studio, Neon, after Amazon gave it the boot. Amazon walked away from the project after striking a major partnership with OpenAI. The$40 million film stars Andrew Garfield as Sam Altman and recounts the chaotic weekend in 2023 when he was fired and was reinstated as OpenAI's CEO. Neon plans to release the film later this year and is expected to position it as an awards contender. You know, very well regarded filmmaker made it. Talk about that. And then just secondly, a big movie is obviously coming out.

50:51Kara Swisher:You mentioned Chris Nolan, his latest film, The Odyssey, which could be the biggest movie of the summer, maybe the year. Tickets went on sale, crashing AMC's app. People are desperate to see this. Fandango says first day sales were 10 times higher than Nolan's last film, Oppenheimer. Early reactions have been raves. Despite a backlash online, it's a fake backlash.

51:09Matt Belloni:Oh, ridiculous. Downvoting the movie's trailers and calling the casting of some of the actors.

51:14Kara Swisher:It's ridiculous. It's a right-wing lunacy. One of the biggest critics, of course, is Elon Musk, who's been attacking the movie and director Nolan for months. I haven't seen the movie. I'm going to see it Monday, I think. Yeah, I'm going Monday as well. It looks astonishing, you know. Talk about, I mean, I think they beat the backlash back. I don't think any of this. That doesn't matter. That's just noise. Yeah, it doesn't matter. So talk about these two movies, the Sam Altman-focused movie and this other one. I think it'll do just fine. I think Neon is a good place for it to go.

51:42Matt Belloni:Listen, this one, I don't know if you and Scott give a Wuss of the Year award, but Mike Hopkins at Amazon is an early contender.

51:52Kara Swisher:All right. Well, you can have one. You have your own podcast. I know, I do.

51:54Matt Belloni:Trust me, I've gone on and on about this one.

51:56Kara Swisher:Wuss of the Year. We stick with Brandon Carr as a moron. That's the people we focus on. But you can go for Mike Hopkins, but go ahead.

52:01Matt Belloni:So, listen, Amazon developed this movie, hired Luca Guadagnino, who did Call Me By Your Name and Challengers, well-regarded filmmaker, to direct this movie. They went through all the motions. The only thing that has changed from when they greenlit this movie last year until now is that they now have a$50 billion relationship with OpenAI.

52:23Kara Swisher:Right.

52:24Matt Belloni:And it's so obvious that they're not even denying it.

52:28Kara Swisher:Well, no, but when you go around, like I've, you know, when you go around to these companies, like we're not touching that, you know, if it's an Elon Musk property. They do this all the time.

52:36Matt Belloni:They do. But the difference here is that Amazon committed to this major filmmaker and all of this talent. And Amazon wants to be both. They want to serve the masters in Seattle and be a tech platform that is looking at the future of AI and all the bets they're making there. But they also want to be able to do real Hollywood movies like Project Hail Mary that requires relationships with talent. The first call that Mike Hopkins had to make on this was to Brian Lord, the head of CAA, the most powerful talent agency that has a lot of talent in this movie, and tell him, this movie by your prominent filmmaker is getting dumped by this studio.

53:17Matt Belloni:What do you think Brian Lord is going to do the next time they have a hot piece of material? Not take it to Mike Hopkins.

53:22Kara Swisher:Right. So what happens here? I mean, I have read the script. I don't particularly like the movie. I think there's a lot of nonsense in it, like making certain people heroes who were. I think everybody's a mess in this situation. No one looks good. But to make Ilya a hero, questionable, make Jeff Hinton a partier. I was like, what? Like, you know, there's a lot of stuff I didn't like in the script when I read it. And I got it years ago, I think. But he's a great filmmaker. I bet it's interesting. It's sort of like the social network. It's not really what happened. but it's not on what happened.

53:53Matt Belloni:It's very much like that. And the difference here is that the stakes are much higher because we're talking about these guys who could potentially end the world. Right, that's correct. From what I understand, I also read an early draft of the script, the tone of it is pretty dark and it makes you feel bad. One potential buyer who saw it and didn't buy the movie said it's the feel bad movie of the year. But it sort of doesn't matter whether this movie is good or bad. There is a social contract in Hollywood where if you commit to a filmmaker and you commit to talent, you're in this together. And here it's Amazon, big tech company, finally showing its face and saying, we are big tech company and we will bow down and serve our master.

54:36Matt Belloni:If we think this is going to potentially even maybe hurt our overall business. And that's, there's a chilling effect there. Yeah.

54:46Kara Swisher:And then they buy the Melania movie. They look like idiots.

54:48Matt Belloni:I know. And, you know, listen, the interesting thing, I reported on the deal. And according to my reporting, Amazon is giving this movie away to Neon. They are not paying a license fee that all that they did was they committed to spend$15 million to market it and release it in theaters, which is what the filmmaker wanted because he wanted a big theatrical release. They're going to do an awards campaign if the reviews are good.

55:11Kara Swisher:It's like the Trump movie. What was the Trump movie? The Apprentice.

55:14Matt Belloni:It's very similar. To this day, The Apprentice does not have a streaming deal.

55:19Kara Swisher:Oh, interesting.

55:20Matt Belloni:None of these big streamers bought The Apprentice. And that movie did not do very much business in theaters, but it did pretty big business on premium video on demand. And it got two major Oscar nominations for the actors.

55:33Kara Swisher:You know what? It was a good movie. It was a good film. This probably will be a good film.

55:37Matt Belloni:I haven't seen it. So there's mixed reactions from the screenings, but good actors involved and, you know, big talent.

55:44Kara Swisher:Was this a good move by Amazon or just stupid?

55:47Matt Belloni:Well, it depends. It depends whether you're in L.A. or Seattle.

55:50Kara Swisher:Right.

55:51Matt Belloni:In Seattle, you know, Mike Hopkins is probably going to get a promotion because he managed this. He managed to avoid this problem and get it sold to a distributor that, frankly, is probably going to do a better job with a movie like this than Amazon would have. they just lost same filmmaker did the Julia Roberts movie the Me Too movie After the Hunt

56:11Kara Swisher:yeah that didn't do well

56:12Matt Belloni:and that movie cost 70 million dollars and did almost no business so they just had a major flop with them maybe Neon will be able to market this movie Neon did Onora which ended up winning Best Picture

56:23Kara Swisher:big hit yeah I thought it was the perfect film for it

56:26Matt Belloni:in Seattle I think Mike Hopkins gets props for this in LA I think they take a big credibility hit

56:33Kara Swisher:you putts Anyway, and Odyssey, I think it's going to be an enormous hit.

56:37Matt Belloni:Oh, big hit, but not the biggest movie of the year. I mean, we still got Spider-Man coming out and Avengers.

56:42Kara Swisher:Like, those will likely be much bigger.

56:45Matt Belloni:I think Toy Story 5 would probably end up being bigger than the Odyssey. But the win is if they can get this movie to eight, nine, a billion, that would be a big win for this movie.

56:55Kara Swisher:For this movie. And then it'll have a huge life afterwards.

56:58Matt Belloni:Yeah, we think it's the biggest event of the year. But we're old people who love history and love Chris Nolan.

57:04Kara Swisher:I don't know. My kids are interested in this movie. Okay, that's good to hear. Well, they all, of course, were completely interested in Obsession and Backrooms. My son knew everything about Obsession and Backrooms.

57:17Matt Belloni:Those two movies are the story of the year in Hollywood. They really are. The fact that two tiny movies for Gen Z audiences can get to$300,$400 million, it's such good news for the business.

57:28Kara Swisher:See, I'm not surprised because it's sort of like heated rivalry. It's like, what a surprise. I'm like, it was an enormous book hit among those people who like romantic fantasies. Like it was already had an inbuilt audience.

57:41Matt Belloni:Yes. But as much as the media talked about heated rivalry, it was never that big of a mainstream hit. Obsession cost less than a million dollars to make.

57:50Kara Swisher:Agreed. But I'm saying all the kids knew about this stuff. Everyone. And they had followed it really.

57:56Matt Belloni:Kara, we have not followed up because I remember coming on your show during the depths of the pandemic where you were saying the movie business theaters are over.

58:05Kara Swisher:I know I did. It was. Yeah, you're right.

58:06Matt Belloni:And young people don't care. And now every study we see says Gen Z likes going to movies.

58:12Kara Swisher:Here's an I'm going to make another prediction. I think there's a massive move away from social media and online life and to like that same son is going to church all the time. That same son is going out more. You know what I mean? Like so. And these were kids who just wouldn't be seen in a theater. Now, the slightly older one doesn't go to the theater, but he wants to see the Odyssey, for sure, in the theater because of the IMAX and everything else. And Chris Nolan is the brand.

58:38Matt Belloni:He's probably not going because it's based on a book that he had to read in high school.

58:41Kara Swisher:Yes, no, no, no, no. He definitely, he definitely. But what I'm saying is there has been a move away. I think that you're going to see massive declines in social media usage and everything else among young people. They want to have real life encounters.

58:53Matt Belloni:My 10-year-old is the same way. He'll do the iPad, but he so much prefers playing with his friends and being outside and going to baseball games or movies or whatever.

59:04Kara Swisher:Yeah, there's a shift. There's a real perceptible, I'm taking these apps off my days. Not everybody, but to me, I feel like all of us want to go out, right? And there's actually good movies to go out to. That's the thing. And that's the issue, whether it's Backrooms and Obsession for the Youngs or Odyssey for the Olds. I mean, it's a good movie.

59:22Matt Belloni:Do you think in 20, 30 years, we're going to look back on this era, Like we look back on the Mad Men era of everybody smoking all the time.

59:30Kara Swisher:Yes, I do. I do because I do think it's people will incorporate. And I think to me, young people are so much smarter about usage, online usage than I think the real problem is 35 to 54 people. Like to me, that's the real problematic group of people. But I think you're right. They just made some movies. I don't know if they'll stay going to movies unless they have stuff that speaks to them. Right. That actually speaks to them.

59:53Matt Belloni:Well, that is what Hollywood is very much doing right now. try to shift the intellectual property paradigm to match this younger audience. Superhero movies are increasingly for older people, and they're looking for IP like Minecraft. There's probably going to be a Roblox movie. Speaks to them. Super Mario. These properties that are just for younger people, and they feel ownership over them.

1:00:16Kara Swisher:Absolutely. And I think that's fine. That's absolutely fine. And if it's a good movie, everyone, like, look, I don't think anyone thought Devil's Prada 2 was going to make a billion dollars. Millennial nostalgia. Yes, but it was also a good movie and it was fun.

1:00:28Matt Belloni:Oh, you're just saying that because you were in it.

1:00:31Kara Swisher:Also, I was in it and I deserve an Oscar, but that's another. I stood up.

1:00:34Matt Belloni:When I saw you, I stood up and applauded.

1:00:37Kara Swisher:My favorite thing was someone sent me a note. There was a screening in San Francisco. This bunch of gay guys rented the movie theater inside it and then didn't know I was in it. And they shrieked because I'm a well-known gay in San Francisco. But it was very funny. It was fun. But I didn't think it was going to be that big, honestly. But it was.

1:00:56Matt Belloni:I didn't either. I do a box office draft with Lucas Shaw and neither of us. No, I didn't. Sorry, I didn't pick it. He picked it and he got the benefit.

1:01:04Kara Swisher:Actually, I thought it when I saw it. I was like, this is a lot of fucking fun. This is and it's really good and really fun and really actually more and more depth. Actually, it was good.

1:01:13Matt Belloni:I picked the Michael Jackson movie, though, and that's going to get to a billion dollars. So I'm pretty happy.

1:01:17Kara Swisher:That's also. Yeah, there's some really promising movies. There's a lot of not ones that you're never going to see again, too. All right, Matt. One more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

1:01:35Kara Swisher:Okay, Matt, let's hear a prediction.

1:01:38Matt Belloni:All right, so I have a fun one and a serious one. Okay, go for it. I'll do the serious one first. Okay. I think Netflix will launch a free tier within a year. Oh. This is where it's going. All of this low value podcast, social video, YouTube style content, they are going to separate it or have it available on the paid tier as well. But they're going to put it into this free tier that will serve as a top of funnel for the regular Netflix and hopefully juice their advertising business via engagement.

1:02:15Kara Swisher:Right. OK, a little bit of Tubi. Go ahead.

1:02:17Matt Belloni:A little bit of Tubi and to compete with those and, you know, query whether it will harm the brand or cause people that pay for Netflix to switch to a non-paying situation. But it's getting to the point where Netflix is showing us their cards. They are so obsessed with YouTube. They will launch a real YouTube competitor and a free service. And they can put some of this old show content that they haven't licensed out anywhere and is not doing much on the platform. They can put that on the free tier and have it be like a Tubi or a Pluto TV where it serves as a funnel for the other services.

1:02:54Kara Swisher:That's a great idea. They could do deals. Yeah, that's an interesting, that's an issue. You know, it's interesting. I saw pictures of Neil Moen from YouTube and Ted walking into the Sun Valley thing, which was interesting. I was like, ooh, I'd like to see them chitty chat. Like I'd like to be in front of them seeing them. By the way, that thing also looks bad this year for some reason. Like, I never liked it, never get invited because I'm a pain in the ass. But it looks particularly tone deaf this year for some reason. But maybe you don't think so.

1:03:19Matt Belloni:I'm interested in the fashion.

1:03:20Kara Swisher:Oh, okay. The outfits, Lauren. Lauren Sanchez.

1:03:23Matt Belloni:Yeah, the vests and the David Zaslav denim on denim look.

1:03:27Kara Swisher:Denim. He's still, that guy works the lesbian look so beautifully, I have to say.

1:03:34Matt Belloni:I'm not going to go there. but it is certainly, it's like his sort of souped up cowboy look. I'm sure both of those denim jackets cost thousands of dollars.

1:03:42Kara Swisher:I've told him this to his face. I'm like, you look like a lesbian I used to date back in the 80s. Anyway.

1:03:48Matt Belloni:All right. Speaking of the gays, you want my fun prediction?

1:03:51Kara Swisher:Sure. Yes, please.

1:03:52Matt Belloni:I think the new album from Madonna will get a album of the year Grammy nomination.

1:03:59Kara Swisher:I'm with you on that.

1:04:00Matt Belloni:Which would be her first since 1998. Confessions 2 getting unbelievable reviews. I listen to it. You know, dance music's not my thing. It's good. But for what it is, it's very good. And I think that there's a narrative around her. She's performing at the World Cup finale. And I think that the buzz around Madonna is she's a survivor and will score that album of the year nomination from the Grand Prix.

1:04:26Kara Swisher:Yeah, I agree. Let Madonna be Madonna. She hasn't, like, stooped. She doesn't do nostalgia. She could easily do a lot of stuff. She did a little bit on that last tour that I went to. I went to the concert. Oh, was it a good show? No, it was not. And it made me sad. And then now I love this album.

1:04:42Matt Belloni:Oh, she doesn't dance like she used to?

1:04:44Kara Swisher:She's too slow. I'm like, don't dance. It's like, who's that guy right now who's dancing? Oh, God, there's an old rocker that needs to sit down.

1:04:50Matt Belloni:Oh, there was a video of Barry Manilow.

1:04:53Kara Swisher:All of them. I was like, sit down. You need to sit down. I love you so much. And you need to sit down. Billy Joel, Elton John, they sit down. They sit down. But Madonna's album is quite good. It's really it's not just and it's not nostalgia. It's interesting. Like, it's an interesting and she refuses to be anything but herself. And I think people kind of like that. She is the she is the OG in many ways.

1:05:13Matt Belloni:She should be a pivot guest. I bet she has opinions on the the mergers and acquisitions.

1:05:17Kara Swisher:Oh, I bet she does. She's as sharp as a fucking tack. That's one thing.

1:05:20Matt Belloni:She went after her label. Remember, she had this whole period where she took a big deal with Live Nation and she left her longtime record label and was sort of floundering. and she criticized Gaia O'Seary. She's got opinions.

1:05:34Kara Swisher:She walked so Taylor Swift could run. Let's just, you know what I mean? Like in a lot of ways. I'm going to ask you for one more prediction. How, you made a joke about this, which made me laugh hysterically, but the Taylor Swift wedding, she goes, she couldn't possibly be preparing a movie about it. Could she? Could she? And then you said, could she? Is she? Will she?

1:05:54Matt Belloni:Okay, so a couple of things there. I don't think it will happen now Now, after I have seen, talked to a lot of people who were there and I've seen how it played out, she didn't get releases from all the big stars that were there. Now, you could argue that maybe they they put up signs there that said, like, this could be filmed. So maybe they could get away with that. But do you think they're going to put out a special on Disney Plus where Tom Cruise and all of these athletes and are dancing on the stage? Yeah, they're sort of private moments. There were no phones or anything there. It would be so tacky to do that.

1:06:35Matt Belloni:I talked to someone who was there who was saying that was the most interesting thing about the wedding, is seeing all these people like J-Lo and Tom Cruise and all these people that have had handlers around them for literally decades be forced to socialize at a party with other famous people without their teams or their phones or anything.

1:06:55Kara Swisher:They must have loved it. They must have loved it.

1:06:57Matt Belloni:Or they don't know how to interact with people. Someone said J-Lo was very awkward.

1:07:01Kara Swisher:So she's not making a movie because I would watch the fucking hell out of that.

1:07:04Matt Belloni:Oh yeah, everyone would watch. It's not a matter of whether it would be popular. It's a matter of whether they are willing to take a withdrawal from the credibility bank to do that because it's so tacky. Even if they made a donation of the money they got to a charity, it's still pretty tacky. Like, has any celebrity done that since Kim Kardashian?

1:07:25Kara Swisher:It feels very Elizabeth Taylor. I bet that, I don't know.

1:07:28Matt Belloni:Kim Kardashian did it with Chris Humphreys and it was a big E special.

1:07:32Kara Swisher:Yeah.

1:07:34Matt Belloni:I don't know. She might not. Maybe I have more faith in Taylor than you do. I just think it would be so tacky that they won't do it.

1:07:43Kara Swisher:Yeah, okay. All right, I'm asking you. That's why I want to know. I'm just telling you, I'd watch the hell out of it and I wouldn't consider it tacky.

1:07:48Matt Belloni:And all the people who went there, just the level of people would find it to be, I think, a bit of a betrayal.

1:07:54Kara Swisher:Although at the same time, they all managed to get pictures themselves. Like, here I am going to the thing. Oh, by the way.

1:08:00Matt Belloni:A lot of them did, but a lot of them didn't. A lot of the executives didn't. And, you know, it's the people who already have big followings on social media who leveraged it.

1:08:10Kara Swisher:She'll release a few short videos and tasteful photos.

1:08:14Matt Belloni:That I agree with. The question is, will she do it with a brand or will she do it on her own channels?

1:08:19Kara Swisher:On her own.

1:08:19Matt Belloni:She's bigger than any media property. Everyone's like, oh, she'll give the photos to Vogue. No.

1:08:23Kara Swisher:Why the hell does she need Vogue? Why does she need Vogue? She could do it.

1:08:26Matt Belloni:She does media stuff when it builds the brand. She did the Time Person of the Year. Yeah. She will do stuff with media when it suits her. But for this one, just put it on your socials.

1:08:36Kara Swisher:Put it on your socials. She doesn't need anybody. She'll make a big album out of it in a news tour, and that'll be that.

1:08:41Matt Belloni:I know. People are already joking about what the divorce album is going to be.

1:08:45Kara Swisher:Oh, stop it. It's not happening. That's, you know, although the guy who did, Jack Antonoff, is getting a divorce from Margaret quality. They're separated, Kara.

1:08:55Matt Belloni:Let's not jump to conclusions.

1:08:57Kara Swisher:All right. I'll try not to, but no one saw that coming. Anyway, this one I think is for life. I do. I have to believe in them. I really don't even like straight people that much, but I believe in this wedding. I don't know why.

1:09:11Matt Belloni:I am a Taylor Swift fan and I enjoy Travis Kelsey as a football player and a media personality.

1:09:17Kara Swisher:I hope this works out. Nothing but the best. I do. I believe in them. I hate, I mean,

1:09:22Matt Belloni:honestly even if it doesn't work out i hope it gives the world a taylor swift no i feel like

1:09:27Kara Swisher:it's going to i have a feeling it's going to i don't know anyway we want to i know i'm stupid we want to hear from you send us your questions about business tech or whatever's on your mind go to nymag.com slash pivot submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT okay that's the show thanks for listening to pivot be sure to like and subscribe to our youtube channel we'll be back next week uh matt thank you so much i really enjoy talking to you you're really It's such a pleasure.

1:09:52Matt Belloni:I appreciate you having me on. I am very much looking forward to learning where Scott is right now.

1:09:56Kara Swisher:And tell people what everyone, they can watch and read you. Obviously, I would subscribe. I don't like everyone at Puck, as you know, but I love you. I love Eric. I love Cohen. You know, so many good things.

1:10:07Matt Belloni:Yeah, you can subscribe to Puck at puck.news, and you can listen to the town on all the platforms, YouTube, Spotify, Apple, everywhere.

1:10:16Kara Swisher:It's terrific. You do a terrific job. You do a terrific job at it, and it's a really great podcast. Anyway, I really appreciate it. Thank you for being here. And Scott, we'll be back next week for wherever he is. Let me read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Todd Wiseman. Ernie Enderdott engineered this episode. Rich Shibley edited the video. Thanks also to Kate Gallagher and Bradley Sylvester. And Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media.

1:10:45Kara Swisher:We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Thank you.