Tariff Turmoil, Trump's Netflix Threat, and SOTU Predictions

8:52Kara Swisher:He's a lovely guy.

8:54Scott Galloway:Yeah, and super smart. And he reached out and said—

8:57Kara Swisher:Just FYI, for people who don't know, he confronted the issue of billionaires at Davos and got a lot of attention for it.

9:02Scott Galloway:He called them a bunch of tax avoiders. He basically said, none of you want to talk about the real issue on the table, which is tax avoidance. He's unafraid. I love the guy. Anyways, I love authors and academics who are just sort of unafraid. And he contacted me and said, you've got the brand, the visibility, and the momentum. we have this group of really talented young people and some traction in something called Quit GPT. And his view is you need to consolidate and focus on one and try and bring them down. And so we're trying to figure out, we've decided we're going to continue with something in March, but we're trying to figure out what are the learnings, how do we be more impactful, and how do we keep our momentum going?

9:42Scott Galloway:And I'm going to speak to you about it and some other people, but I've had a bunch of organizations, a bunch of Congress people, elected representatives all say, how do we continue this and how do we make it more effective? I did an analysis for us to get the number of visitors, unique visitors to our site, if we paid for it and we haven't paid a dime, would cost us somewhere between five and nine million dollars. It just shows the power of social media in terms of the platforms we've built and the content stream we have and how powerful podcasts are driving. But I need to, in the next several days, figure out what we do in March.

10:18Scott Galloway:Is it focusing? Is it different media outlets? What is it that helps maintain this momentum? Is it consolidating? There are three or four similar movements around the world. Do we all consolidate? I was on a call with Recorded Ed and I was like, if the British, the Russians and the Americans can come together to defeat Germany, maybe we should figure out a way to all consolidate and come together. But the two points are distill down to a smaller number of targets, if you will, and also do what you said, structure some full-time resources.

10:50Kara Swisher:Yeah, I think so. So that you can, they just tell you what to do, right, essentially. There's a lot of people who do that. One of the things that's, you know, someone who I'm really impressed with, Amanda Littman, who runs Run for Something. And I had her on the podcast. She's incredibly, you know, strategic in terms of figuring out what people need to do, especially young people. It seems like this is something that you need to get people who are actually a little more, you know, that really can focus it energetically. I don't mean professionally, like, because there's a lot of professional organizers that don't really get stuff done.

11:20Kara Swisher:I think you've really caught lightning in a bottle here, and you've got to keep doing it. Anyway, we're still working on an event, Scott and I are, and so we're going to do that, hopefully. And we'll see where it goes from there. But let's move on to the stuff we have to cover today. Donald Trump is increasing his global tariffs to 15 percent from 10 percent effective immediately just days after the Supreme Court struck down most of his global tariffs. In a six to three decision, the court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority when he invoked the Emergency Powers Act. Trump called the decision ridiculous and anti-American.

11:53Kara Swisher:He also insulted the justices personally quite a bit. That was, you know, it was worse than that. He's just being a giant fucking baby. His latest workaround uses a 1974 trade law that allows him to impose temporary tariffs for 150 days. He just posted on True Social a little while ago about the court empowering him to use the tariffs in a more powerful and obnoxious way. He's just, you know, he's just, the court, let me be clear, was very clear about what he was doing was illegal, essentially, and that the Congress and Gorsuch, Judge Gorsuch, had a really eviscerating take on how Congress has sort of abrogated its responsibility.

12:31Kara Swisher:One of the other justices who was against it questions if the refunds could happen. Scott Besant sort of is trying to hedge that bet because they've got to give billions and many, many billions and I think 175 billion, something like that, in returns to U.S. businesses, etc. The repercussions of this tariff decision, the EU just hit pause on its U.S. trade deal until it gets more clarity on what Trump is doing. Thousands of companies around the world have already filed lawsuits challenging the terrorists even before the Supreme Court's ruling. So there's a market in that. Estimates suggest the government could owe, again, more than$175 billion in refunds.

13:09Kara Swisher:The Supreme Court is leaving the refund question in lower courts. This is just Kavanaugh who warned the process. It's going to be a mess, and it is. Let's listen to Secretary Besant, what he said about these payouts. He spoke to Fox News after the decision.

13:22Scott Galloway:This could take months. This could take years to litigate and to get to the payouts. And if there is a payout, it looks like it's just going to be the ultimate corporate welfare.

13:34Kara Swisher:Oh, please, Scott, you took the money from them. Give it back. So talk about what the next move is for everybody and the reaction that Trump had, which was very, I honestly thought it was dangerous given the political heat right now, especially for the Supreme Court justices.

13:50Scott Galloway:It's weird. Everyone says he's a loser. There's no doubt it's a check on his authority and, you know, a rejection or a gag reflex. The primary purpose or power of Congress is the power of the purse. They're the ones that are supposed to, I mean, what you've had on a meta level and Barry Goldwater back in the 70s warned of this. There's been a slow abrogation of power to the executive branch. And a lot of the power was checked by norms, not by laws. And then someone showed up and said, fuck norms. I'm declaring wars and tariffs on my own. And one of the reasons you've seen so many Republican Congress people decide to retire is they're like, it's one thing to be in the minority and know that you've been defenestrated or neutered.

14:34Scott Galloway:It's another thing to be in the majority. And the Speaker of the House is not the Speaker of the House. He's the Speaker of the White House. He's there just to run roughshod over us and pretend he represents Congress. He doesn't. He represents the president. and Republicans are like, wait, I thought we were in charge and had some say here and we don't. And these tariffs would not have gone through. There are enough Republicans against the tariffs. You know, they're supposed to be the free marketers. So this is a victory for co-equal branches of government and Congress controlling the purse. I think it's a huge victory for the Supreme Court who was looking increasingly like Trump's, you know, trolls or not trolls, Trump's acolytes, right?

15:16Scott Galloway:This does look like the independence of the court. Six to three is pretty resounding. In a weird way, I thought this gave Trump an off-ramp from what was clearly a failed economic policy that I thought the economy and the stock market would actually probably go up. What was interesting is the reaction was muted. The market was slightly up, but now it's looking like he's going to use another provision, 122, which only lasts 150 days, But it's more inconsistency. And we've said this for a long time, more than the tariffs themselves, the most damaging thing to American trade policy is inconsistency.

15:52Scott Galloway:Nobody, no small business knows how to plan their business against what will be tariffs or not tariffs. What I've been tracking, I was working with a hedge fund trying to find tariff claims. So if you're Mercedes-Benz of the United States and you paid 20 million tariffs, you could at one point potentially buy those claims for 10 cents on the dollar. Now those have accelerated to 20 to 40 cents on the dollar, but the reason they're not trading at 60 or 80 cents on the dollar is the administration and complexity of potentially getting the money back. I think that's a red herring. I just don't. I think if they collected this money easily, I don't see why they can't reimburse it easily.

16:29Scott Galloway:It was all done digitally. So I don't buy that argument. But it's more indecision. It's more sclerotic decision making where people can't plan their business against. And what you see is just a continued reconfiguration of the global supply chain around the U.S. where we have massively benefited. You know, someone brought up the notion, the very simple notion. Actually, I think it was Justin Whitfuss that said, we have a trade deficit in the form of dollars, but we have a trade surplus in the form of stuff. So the example is I have a trade deficit with my barber, but my barber makes me look just fucking dreamy for very little money.

17:06Scott Galloway:So it's a good trade. And U.S. trade policy, while we give more paper money to them, we get so much shit because of the strength of the dollar. I mean, stuff.

17:17Kara Swisher:Trump is an economic imbecile. Like, he's just, he's seeing things. Like, he learned economics in fourth grade, and that's where he's stuck.

17:24Scott Galloway:If you export$100 worth NVIDIA chips to Germany in exchange for$100 of a Mercedes G-Wagon, they operate at 10 points operating margin and get seven times EBITDA. So they get$70. We operate – NVIDIA operates at like 60 points operating margin and trades at 40. We get$2 ,400. dollars. I mean, if there's any asymmetry here of who is who is disproportionately benefited from global trade, it's been the U.S. We've been the big winner.

17:56Kara Swisher:This is stuck in Trump's brain forever because he's just not honestly, he's not that smart. Right. Like, just in a very basic way, he has this has had in this brain and then he has these facilitators. And by the way, Scott Besson knows better. Of course, he knows exactly what you know. And he's I don't know what his game is. I mean, he's talking about tarnishing a reputation that he had that was pretty decent. But one of the things that's problematic is that he's operating sort of economics for dummies or something. Like something, because he sticks in his brain that this is the way things go.

18:29Kara Swisher:And I think most people don't think about it in a complex way. I think the two things that I think about, again, were these, that the Supreme Court did him a favor here, right? He got to try out his stupid ideas.

18:42Scott Galloway:He seems to be doubling down.

18:44Kara Swisher:He's doubling down in a really demented way. And the personal stuff that he was attacking them with, and, you know, apparently...

18:51Scott Galloway:Their families should be ashamed.

18:52Kara Swisher:Families and Barrett, Coney Barrett and Gorsuch, I think, just really strange, just really, really strange. And all they were saying was pointing out the obvious, which was, this is something Congress should do. It's something Congress's job is to do. And he just doesn't feel any restraints on himself. And that's what it is. And it's like old man combined with someone who's already an egomaniac and a narcissist, combined with more old man, combined with he gets to do what he wants this term. And the victimization that he has is so massive, you know, that he's always being victimized. Someone's always fucking him.

19:30Kara Swisher:That's his whole worldview, that it's just we're being governed by a guy who just, again, didn't, is a victim, thinks he's a victim. Anyway, we'll see. Where does it go from here very briefly?

19:42Scott Galloway:Well, on Calci, they're saying it's a 76 % chance the court orders a tariff refund before 2027. So it does feel like he's running out of options. This section 122 has a maximum 150 days. Yeah, 50 days, right. The Supreme Court does seem pretty resolute on this, 6-3. I don't think he's going to get a lot of support from even Republicans or Congress like, oh, wait, we have meaning again? You mean we get to actually have input. You actually have to bring this to us. And if he thinks these tariffs have merit and they're good for the economy, then take it to Congress and work out a deal with them. That's what they're there for.

20:16Scott Galloway:That's right.

20:16Kara Swisher:But he doesn't want to do that because he can't get it passed. Because he can't get it passed. He wants to do what he wants to do.

20:21Scott Galloway:Because he can't justify it intellectually or economically.

20:23Kara Swisher:Right, well, intellectually.

20:24Scott Galloway:This is the amount of money, the prosperity we have recognized from global trade. Now, granted, some of his instincts are correct. We had an asymmetric relationship. We were getting taken advantage of, in my view, in terms of our relationship with China. They, you know, they steal our IP and then sell us stuff at 60 cents on the dollar. We are not good at looking after people who are on the wrong end of global trade.

20:49Kara Swisher:But he's never doing that. He just tells them he's here for them, but then he doesn't actually do anything for them.

20:55Scott Galloway:And then if you want to look at the manufacturing sector that was supposed to be rejuvenated, that has not happened. What has happened is that the tourist industry, which employs 12 million people versus the manufacturing industry, which employs 11 million, is taking a real hit because Canadians are thinking, no, I'm not going to Disneyland or Las Vegas this year.

21:15Kara Swisher:Look at that. Did you see that story about that British woman who was put into ICE for six weeks?

21:20Scott Galloway:Well, checking your people who have to turn over their phone and they're being asked for their password. It's like, fuck that. I'll go to Capri or I'll go to Buenos Aires. You know, do something else. I would think this is a, I would think every tourism board in the world is like, come here, we'll take your money.

21:35Kara Swisher:Yeah, anyway. Okay, Scott, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, get ready for Trump's State of the Union.

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25:21Kara Swisher:Scott, we're back. As we record, we're one day away from Trump's State of the Union speech. This will appear on the day of it. He's walking in with a 60 percent disapproval rating, according to a new Washington Post ABC Ipsos poll. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is urging Democrats either attend in silent defiance or skip the speech. And a growing number of Democrats plan to attend a counter rally on the National Mall called the People's State of the Union. And Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberg is delivering the official Democratic response. It's a good choice. What do you think of this?

25:52Scott Galloway:I'm wondering if that's if and when we bomb Iran.

25:56Kara Swisher:I don't think he has a lot to say.

25:58Scott Galloway:I don't know. I think his speechwriters are scratching their head.

26:02Kara Swisher:Apparently, Vance previewed it. Apparently, he's going to talk about how manufacturing is coming back to the U.S. like tomorrow. It's sort of like an Elon promise of autonomous.

26:11Scott Galloway:I think those screenshots here are going to be really hilarious. The audience reaction, even I think there's even going to be some Republicans who are kind of like, oh, yeah, fly clap. Yeah, that's not that's not working here. I think it's going to be very interesting. But I feel as if he's, you know, they're like, OK, how do we turn chicken shit into chicken salad here?

26:29Kara Swisher:Yeah, they're going to advance apparently gave an interview where he's talking about how we're going to suddenly have factories everywhere. Like it's all made up. Literally, it feels like, you know, there was a really interesting meme online of Elon promising autonomy for like 10 years, like tomorrow, next week. They're going to try to say everything's great with the economy, which to me, when Biden did that, was so ineffective when people know that's not the case. I think these numbers are just astonishing that he keeps doubling down, right, on the 60 % disapproval is so high. I think it was this number right after the January 6th attack on the Capitol.

27:05Kara Swisher:I mean, I think that's where we are right now. And it'll be interesting. I think there's a high chance of crazy, like, that he does something nuts.

27:13Scott Galloway:Just goes unchained.

27:14Kara Swisher:Unchained. Like, he says something kooky or he loses his words. I wouldn't get up there if I were him. You know, of course, he's going to have pancake makeup caked on his hand. By the way, whoever is doing that, I can tell you there are Hollywood people that can make that hand look better. I keep looking at it. I'm like, what is his, like, secretary doing it? or, you know, with a bunch of like cheap makeup, it's really weird. I feel like they could do a better job.

27:39Scott Galloway:I think it's the same person that came up with the tariff strategy. Right, exactly.

27:42Kara Swisher:It's Peter Navarro slabbering, you know, Mac makeup. Hold your hand out. It's not even Mac makeup.

27:48Scott Galloway:My niece works at Sephora. This is how you do it.

27:51Kara Swisher:But seriously, I think it is a good chance of crazy. Good chance, like a high chance of crazy. Like something. Yeah. I wouldn't do it if I were him. I'd find some dumb excuse not to do it. But he's now a heat-seeking missile Have you noticed how much he's been, like, appearing? Like, he keeps appearing everywhere. I don't know. I just feel like it's bad. We'll see what happens. But at the very least, if he doesn't say something crazy, poop his pants or lose his words, and it'll be fine, I guess, and doesn't just lie too much. I don't know. What should the Democrats do? Just show up and say nothing?

28:26Stare angrily?

28:28Scott Galloway:I think you just sit there and kind of look like, okay.

28:30Kara Swisher:Are you fucking kidding me?

28:31Scott Galloway:This dude is lost his shit. I don't know what they should do. I don't think they acquit yourself like the elected leaders you are and just polite. Should they not go?

28:42Kara Swisher:The Supreme Court has to go. All of them, right? Don't you think?

28:45Scott Galloway:Yeah, as do our elected representatives. I just hate the idea of whoever's president, half the House doesn't show up.

28:52Kara Swisher:I think there's a certain decorum.

28:54Scott Galloway:It's the State of the Union. Show up. You don't have to smile. You don't have to applaud. But yeah, I think you show up. And of course, the Supreme Court should show up.

29:00Kara Swisher:Yeah, maybe he'll tell us they're aliens. Maybe that's what he's going to do. I don't know. Something. He's going to have to have jazz hands. He shouldn't use his hands too much, let's just say.

29:08Scott Galloway:I'm just praying that the teleprompter goes down and he goes full apeshit crazy. Yeah, I know, apeshit crazy. I hope it's two gin and tonics for drunk uncle.

29:16Kara Swisher:No, but he doesn't drink. Remember, he doesn't drink. Remember his brother died of alcoholism? He's like anti-drinking.

29:22Scott Galloway:But other than that, Cara, how is his brother doing?

29:25Kara Swisher:What? It's dead. All right.

29:29Scott Galloway:That's like, do you ever run into a friend and you ask how their dad is and you didn't know this? Like, oh, my dad passed a year ago. Oh, but wait, other than that, how's he doing?

29:36Kara Swisher:You don't do that. That's always my response. You never do that. I totally do that. You never do that. What are you supposed to say?

29:40Scott Galloway:Never. What I find is people don't go, oh, I'm sorry. It's like, well, dude, he died a year ago. I'm fine. I didn't think you'd make a joke out of it. Oh, okay. All right.

29:47Kara Swisher:Well, my mom's still living, just to remember that. So, all right. Lucky. Lucky. She's good. I got her a Lazy Boy.

29:55Scott Galloway:That's the greatest innovation in Hollywood. It's not AI. It's Lazy Boys in theaters.

29:59Kara Swisher:Can I just say, it stands up now. It's so good. I took her to lunch. I lifted her right out of that chair, stuck her. Anyway, she loves her Lazy Boy. She loves her Lazy Boy. I'm just saying, I'm getting you one.

30:09Scott Galloway:I want one with wheels where I can just fly down the avenue.

30:12Kara Swisher:No, we're going to keep you in a room, and that's going to be the end of it. So this is one I've been really excited to talk to you about. President Trump has called on Netflix to fire board member Susan Rice or, quote, quote, pay the consequences after Rice said Democrats would push for corporate accountability. The DOJ is investigating Netflix's proposed takeover of Warner Brothers and whether the deal may, quote, substantially lessen competition. And Paramount saying there's, quote, no statutory impediment to closing its deal for Warner Brothers after clearing a U.S. antitrust waiting period.

30:42Kara Swisher:This is not true. Regulars could still stop to sue it. Of course, there's the EU and other other ways. This is not, this was a press release. Meanwhile, a group of Democratic senators is threatening to investigate Paramount seeking information on the company's contacts with the Trump administration. As we tape, the seven-day window for Warner Brothers to talk with Paramount is nearing an end at 11.59 p.m. on Monday. So talk about this, this Trump thing. I mean, Susan Rice, like what? I mean, maybe it'll have an implication. I don't know. It's just weird. He had tried to get Lisa Monaco from stopping working at Microsoft, and Microsoft just ignored him, essentially, and she's still working there.

31:22Kara Swisher:Do you think it's important? What do you think here?

31:25Scott Galloway:Yeah, it's incredibly socialist. Capital markets function on the assumption that boards are accountable to shareholders, that regulatory authority is exercised through formal channels, and that political powers and uses leverage in private corporate disputes. And, you know, when those lines erode, you introduce political risk and into ordinary governance decisions. Capitalism is supposed to be regulated competition. And a guy who just has a history of bankrupting casinos and leaving a stream of unpaid subcontractors, you know, who got rich through a grift monetizing the White House is not the person to be telling companies.

32:08Scott Galloway:It's just it's totally anathema to the way America has built its economy. You know, when political actors treat corporate boards as cultural battlegrounds, you shift from kind of rules-based capitalism to personality-driven capitalism. Investors can price regulation, but they struggle to price discretionary political targeting. So does this mean every time the administration changes, we invest in companies that have Democratic board members versus Republican board members? Yeah, exactly. Practically. If presidents start leaning on boards, it invites Congress, regulators, and state officials to do the same.

32:48Scott Galloway:And that's not market discipline. That's politicized corporate.

32:51Kara Swisher:We won't give you this unless you get rid of this person. I mean, so far, again, it didn't work with Lisa Monaco at Microsoft. They just basically ignored the request.

33:00Scott Galloway:And I think, so I was with some Netflix people. I went to the BAFTA Awards last night. Oh, you did? Wait, you went to BAFTA?

33:07Kara Swisher:Hello? Where are the lead? What'd you wear?

33:10Scott Galloway:Oh, I didn't know BAFTA was a big deal and I showed up just with a blazer and then Ted Sarandos came up to me in a tux. I'm like, oh God, I fucked up.

33:17Kara Swisher:Yeah, okay. Yeah, he was there.

33:20Scott Galloway:Yeah, but everyone, yeah, it was really, really fancy. I didn't, a friend of mine took me to dinner and said, do you want to go to the BAFTA Awards? I was like, yeah. Wow. And anyways, but they will, I have no inside information here, but I know what smart class act Netflix management is. I am sure if they haven't already, they'll put out a statement of support for Susan Rice. And this is, this has become so obviously he's now supporting Paramount. But I talked to some Netflix. So I think that at this point, so much testosterone has gotten involved in this. If you had asked either the Ellisons or Ted Sarando six months ago, would you ever pay $82 billion for Warner?

34:05Scott Galloway:They'd say, no fucking way. It's not worth that in any world. But because Zaslav, to his credit, is not a great operator, but he's an outstanding investment banker, he has played them off each other and convinced both of them to overpay. If the Ellisons end up getting this and Netflix doesn't, my prediction is that Netflix stock is up 10 to 20 percent. Because with$80 billion, Netflix can create just a shit ton of content, new verticals, new markets, new subscription plans. They'll be able to, at this point, I think it would almost be better for them if they lost and they just sue the shit out of Paramount and the government and basically create, keep Hollywood in a state of flux.

34:45Scott Galloway:And they're the winner. They'll keep on humming. I mean, that company's firing on all 12 ,000 cylinders with content production all over the world. And just, you know, they're sort of the default, right? You have to, even in the resistant unsubscribe, people would say, I'm going down to one streaming media platform. And if you go down to one, who do you choose? Netflix, absolutely. You choose Netflix, right? Disney or Netflix, yeah. Everyone else's heated seats and car stereos, they're the engine in the car itself. They're the chassis, so to speak.

35:14Kara Swisher:Or Disney, right? Because it's—

35:16Scott Galloway:If you have young kids and you don't watch TV, maybe. Well, I guess we do.

35:19Kara Swisher:I watch a lot of TV. You're wrong. I watch it at night.

35:21Scott Galloway:But yeah, what you're going to see here, I think, is that even if the Ellisons get it, if Netflix could block the closing of the acquisition until the next administration, they might be able to overturn it because— That's right. That's correct. The whole point of capitalism is it's pretty basic. in M &A. Whoever shows up with more money gets approved by shareholders, and then it has to survive regulatory review. The president has no role in any of that. That's not what he's there for. The whole point of government is we let our thoroughbreds run. We have antitrust. We have regulatory concerns.

36:01Scott Galloway:We have CFIUS security concerns. But you're supposed, guess what? The American corporation is the second best performing organizations in history, only behind the U.S. military. We create these out-of-control, full-body contact violence, not a ton of regulation, low regulation rules, regulated competition produces unprecedented profits, prosperity, and innovation. And all of a sudden, you have a failed rich kid deciding who should own what?

36:32Kara Swisher:Yeah, exactly. So one of the things that has really struck me, look, Netflix will be fine without this. I think they really want it now. You know what I mean? I think they are willing.

36:41Scott Galloway:Ego's involved now, Cara.

36:43Kara Swisher:Not just ego, but it actually could be good for them, too.

36:45Scott Galloway:I don't agree. I think with that money, they could build a bigger business on their own.

36:48Kara Swisher:Possibly. Right. You're right. You're absolutely right. So they'll be fine, whatever. And in slowing everything down, they've created a slowdown for everybody, which is always good for them because they're faster, right? They were lapping Hollywood for years. I sat there. I was like, why are you letting Netflix lap you all for years and years and years? So they have that ability to do that. And they've always stayed fresh. They're a very fresh company, even as old as they are comparatively, right? So they remain fresh and relevant. And people are learning how to do what they do, but it's taken forever for Hollywood to do so.

37:20Kara Swisher:And one of the things that just gets me is, one, the efforts of Paramount are, one, to run a shitty business and show that you cannot do content, whether it's over at CBS News or losing Taylor Sheridan. Come on, landmen.

37:34Scott Galloway:The world before HR. I love landmen.

37:38Kara Swisher:Okay, I know you do.

37:39Scott Galloway:A bunch of men drilling where they're not supposed to drill. People die, and then they pay them off, and everything's better.

37:43Kara Swisher:How could you ruin 60 Minutes? What a bunch of fucking idiots. I'm sorry. Like, how could you get Anderson Cooper to walk out? He's such a polite young man. Like, it's just like you're a bunch of dummies. I'm sorry. I really like some of you, but seriously, this is ridiculous. And it comes from the top. I'm sorry. And getting daddy to pay for it is really depressing on so many levels. Like so sad. It's like sad, rich kid. And they're going to, let me just tell you, guess who's coming for you? You think the Democrats won't do anything? You are wrong, Paramount. They are coming at you. If they win these elections, it's going to be a long time before you get your hands on CNN.

38:24Kara Swisher:And it's going to be a long time before you get your hands on any of this. And then let's stop at European regulators. And by the way, now people in Hollywood don't all love Netflix. That is 100 % clear. But now suddenly a lot of Hollywood people like Mark Ruffalo, very liberal, is pushing back against James Cameron because he loves theaters, whatever. There's now like a growing like, hey, leave Netflix alone, which is incredible because they're so like bossy to most of Hollywood. And so, Paramount, you have managed to shoot yourself in every foot possible, every toe in the way you've conducted this.

39:00Kara Swisher:And just throw the money at it as you should have done in the first place and just take daddy's money and buy it. But you're still not going to get it easily, especially because you're stressing all this closeness with the Trump administration. It's not going to end well for you in three or four months.

39:14Scott Galloway:In the first Star Wars, Jedi Obi-Wan Kenobi is on the Millennium Falcon, and he feels a disturbance in the Force, and he has to sit down, and he goes, it's as if millions of people just screamed and then nothing. And he's referring to the Death Star, which builds a capability to destroy planets, and Darth Vader orders the destruction of Alderaan. you are going to see if the Ellisons get, if the Ellisons close, if Paramount closes on Warner Brothers, you are going to hear a scream from the creative community of which they're not even aware of. You have a melting ice cube in Paramount, and then you'll get this scale.

39:57Scott Galloway:They'll overpay. At this point, they're both overpaying. Whoever gets it is overpaying. And then Father Ellison is going to go, okay, the only way we can get anything resembling a return is to reduce cost by 40%. The fact that SAG-AFTRA and the Writers Guild are not hair on fire about AI. You want to see AI come to an industry and destroy the labor? Oh my God. Because Ted Surrounded, whatever you think about Netflix, they like Hollywood. They still hire makeup artists. They still do things kind of, I don't want to call it, you know, the old way, but if you want to talk about a destruction in human capital, wait till you see what happens here of the Ellisons.

40:42Scott Galloway:I think with CBS, they're like, all right, we have to make some bold, take some risks because this thing is just going away slowly. Not in this rinky dink way.

40:50Kara Swisher:I get it. I have a list of people that could have done that.

40:54Scott Galloway:I think it's hard. It's hard to defend the execution to date. They had to take some risks here. I wouldn't have taken a lot of risk for 60 minutes.

41:00Kara Swisher:I would have waited until this deal was over and maybe hired a competent person, but that's a different story. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, investors want protection from AI.

41:17Scott Galloway:Support for the show comes from CoreWeave. AI isn't just a new tool. It encompasses so much more. It's spurring a revolution across all industries and reshaping itself to become a big part of our future together. CoreWeave is at the center, powering some of the biggest names in AI. As the essential cloud for AI, CoreWeave provides an AI platform that combines next-generation infrastructure, intelligent tools, and expert support. It's powering the world's most complex AI workloads faster and more efficiently, from medical research and diagnosis to education, from complex visual effects from movies to breakthroughs in science and technology.

41:49Scott Galloway:If it's AI, CoreWeave is uniquely ready to power it with purpose-built tech. The big ideas, the wild visions, and what-ifs and why-nots. CoreWeave is working to build what's never been built before. CoreWeave is the essential cloud for AI. Ready for anything, ready for AI. To learn more about how CoreWeave powers the world's best AI, go to coreweave.com slash ready for anything.

42:16time.

42:20Kara Swisher:Scott, we're back. This is really interesting because you've talked about the problems that companies not AI are having, but Wall Street is taking interest in a new category called Halo Companies, heavy assets, low obsolescence. Businesses seen as largely immune to disruption from AI. Really interesting. S &P 500 sectors for industrials, materials, utilities, and consumer staples have marched ahead in the last month. Companies like McDonald's and ExxonMobil are taking a win as investors try to take cover from potential AI disruption. Now, you said a lot of these companies have suffered because AI has taken most of the gains in the stock market.

42:55Kara Swisher:Talk about this. This was a story in the Wall Street Journal, but it's something we've discussed before. It was other 400 companies, not the top seven or whatever.

43:04Scott Galloway:There's been a rotation out of AI companies into what are traditionally thought of as defense stocks, like Procter & Gamble or Caterpillar, but they have been run up. And so what you've had is you've had this weird phenomena where there's been a pretty serious multi-trillion dollar destruction in the private and public market valuations of the companies most tightly associated with AI, whether it's NVIDIA or Microsoft. or they have all gotten hit pretty hard. What's also interesting though, and then there's been a rotation into quote unquote, the defensive guys that are considered AI immune. Goldman Sachs put together an AI immune index.

43:41Scott Galloway:The opportunity in all of this and where I'm actually thinking of investing is that while AI stocks have come down, there's still a massive fear that they're gonna destroy entire sectors. And the sectors that are ground zero for the sphere right now are traditional SaaS companies, Salesforce, ServiceNow, Adobe. The view is since this new innovation from Claude that those businesses that someone will just automatically put in a prompt and all of a sudden overnight no longer need Salesforce for their CRM for their salespeople and that overnight Salesforce is going to go away. I mean, Salesforce and Adobe and ServiceNow, these companies are off somewhere between 40 and 70%.

44:25Scott Galloway:These companies, and by the way, there's absolutely no evidence whatsoever.

44:32Kara Swisher:As you noted last week, yeah.

44:33Scott Galloway:So these companies are growing at double digits and trading at free cash flows of like, you know, multiples on free cash flow of 10 or 12. Meanwhile, some of these old economy companies that are growing at single digits are trading at much higher multiples. So I would argue that one of the biggest opportunities in the market right now is the traditional SaaS companies as a multiple on their free cash flow.

44:56Kara Swisher:This is beyond these halo companies, beyond the McDonald's.

44:59Scott Galloway:No, I think the halo guys, quite frankly, are overpriced right now. Oh, interesting. They're low growth companies trading at exceptional PEs. Meanwhile, I mean, keep in mind, if you think, so at all my companies, we've had Salesforce. I don't care if some kid came to me and said, okay, we can kind of replicate Salesforce with a thoughtful prompt into Anthropic. I'd be like, okay, we're going to have to retrain everybody on a new UI. These companies get so – they have client service. They have events. They have worked out millions of bugs over a couple years. I get invited to Dreamforce if I spend enough money.

45:41Scott Galloway:The thought that all of a sudden people are just going to strip out Adobe or Figma or ServiceNow is just these companies are so deeply embedded. You can call it technical debt. You can call it switching costs, whatever it is. In addition, if AI can actually take the coding down to something meaningless, then what will happen, I think, is that these SaaS companies will reduce their costs by 10 or 20%, which gives you their actual coding and technical costs are only 10 or 20 % of their revenue. The other 80 % is marketing, branding, client service, design, events. So that shows you where the value is.

46:20Scott Galloway:They'll do the same thing and then pass on those savings. So you might see some mild margin compression, but I think the flight into quote unquote defensive stocks, I think that trade has been overdone. And I think there's one of the biggest, I haven't been able to find value anywhere. I've been selling, not buying. For the first time in a long time, I look at these SaaS companies, there is absolutely no evidence anywhere that a large corporation is giving up Adobe or Salesforce and putting in new prompts into AI. So I think that threat has been massively overdone. Also, I think the rotation into these more traditional low-growth companies, quite frankly, I think those guys are really overvalued right now.

47:02Scott Galloway:These are low-growth companies trading at tech growth multiples.

47:07Kara Swisher:Yeah, I would agree. I think you're absolutely right. I think that's a really interesting take on that. It is interesting that people are looking beyond AI, right? Like, where are the opportunities? And I think your argument is excellent. So what are you buying?

47:18Scott Galloway:Oh, I'm going to put together probably a basket of Figma, Adobe, Salesforce, maybe ServiceNow. But I look at those companies, and unless there's a collapse in their business model, do you know how hard it is to get rid of? I remember, you know, these companies are so deeply embedded. I remember we were paying$25 ,000 a year for my terminal for Bloomberg. And we thought, okay, let's go to Thomson Reuters. It's cheaper. Bloomberg is so tightly integrated into your life if you're managing a hedge fund.

47:50Kara Swisher:Right, yep.

47:50Scott Galloway:Even messaging, the way we messaged other people in the hedge fund business.

47:54Kara Swisher:Things do get replaced, though, over time, Scott.

47:56Scott Galloway:I think what's going to happen here is margin compression.

47:59Kara Swisher:You used to buy in a box, if you remember, a lot of this stuff.

48:02Scott Galloway:But I think they'll cut costs. I mean, I still think, I mean, for example, Salesforce, I actually think there's really brilliant branding. They have built some of the tallest buildings in every one of their markets in the world. there's probably, if they needed to, quite a bit of cost they could cut and pass on to their consumers. There is.

48:19Kara Swisher:That's because Mark Benioff has penis building problems.

48:22Scott Galloway:These are smart people. What they might say is, if they see a threat, they might say, oh, Salesforce is now 0.6X per seat versus X per seat. These are smart, well-run management teams. And by the way, no evidence whatsoever that any of this is impacting any of those companies. That is the bigger point.

48:42Kara Swisher:All right. Scott's going different than Halo. He's going, what are we going to call them? Not dead S software as a service.

48:50Scott Galloway:Abandoned. It's like that little monkey who was rejected by his family and found a plushie. It's the plushie strategy.

48:58Kara Swisher:I knew you watched that. I can't stop watching that little monkey.

49:02Scott Galloway:I know. I can't stop watching. Did you see the one where - His mom rejected him and they gave him a plushie.

49:07Kara Swisher:I know. But did you see the one where they, it was, speaking of AI use, where the monkey attacks all the other monkeys, the monkey with the plushy attacks all the other monkeys.

49:15Scott Galloway:Oh, starts doing kung fu on them?

49:17Kara Swisher:Yeah, starts doing kung fu on them. Like he's had enough, he's going to punch. Anyway.

49:22Scott Galloway:I just thought, I saw that, and granted, I think I was on an edible, and I'm like, that's my purpose in life is to be other people's plushy.

49:29Kara Swisher:Plushy. That's my purpose. You are my plushy. Anyway, this could go somewhere weird really quickly, so I'm going to move on. One more quick break. We'll be back for Wins and Fails.

49:47Kara Swisher:All right, wins and fails. I shall go first because I have declared myself first. So when the Olympics just ended, they were quite good. U.S. women and women in general dominated. America's female Olympians won six gold medals and 17 medals overall. American men won four gold medals and 12 medals. It's not a competition, but they did really well. And in any case, one of the things I was really struck by was not an American, but someone who is American, Eileen Gu, who won the gold medal in the women's free ski half pipe event for China. She's been meddling for China, just won a couple of silvers.

50:24Kara Swisher:She's been really plagued by stupid questions, largely from male reporters. But she got asked a question when asked by a woman, what do you think about your words before you speak? It actually was a very complimentary question saying, you're so well-spoken. How do you do it? And so let's listen to her answer, which I thought was so superb. She's gorgeous. She's a model. She's a skier. She's an athlete, et cetera. Let's listen.

50:49Scott Galloway:Do I think? I think overall, I'm just a pensive person. Like, I'm a very introspective. I'm an introspective young woman. Like, I spend a lot of time in my head. And it's not a bad place to be. I journal a lot. I break down all of my thought processes. I think I apply a very analytical lens to my own thinking and I kind of modify it because it's so interesting. You can control what you think, like you can control how you think and therefore you can control who you are. And especially as a young person, like I'm 22. So with neuroplasticity on my side, I can literally become exactly who I want to be.

51:22Scott Galloway:How cool is that? Like, how empowering is that? Right.

51:24Kara Swisher:I think she was quite lively in a way that I really enjoyed listening to her, you know, push back against people. A lot of these athletes, whether they were some of the skaters, the women skaters were astonishing and they're their own people. I really enjoyed this for that, for all these athletes, especially women showing off. They don't have to be adorable little dolls. They were just their own people. I really like that. My fail is related. It's when Trump called the U.S. men's hockey team in the locker room after their victory where Kash Patel was making a fucking idiot himself, chugging beers and acting like he was 21.

52:00Kara Swisher:when he's old and spending taxpayer money, but let's not get into that imbecile. But anyways, Trump then tried to, said, hold my beer to Kash Patel, and he invited them to the State of the Union and the White House. But let's listen to how he said it. We'll do the White House the next day. We'll just have some fun. We have medals for you guys. And we have to, I must tell you, we're going to have to bring the woman's team. You do know that.

52:27I do believe I probably would be impeached, okay?

52:35Kara Swisher:It's so great to have a really old man make a stupid old man joke, and that is fine. He is what he is, and it was just gross to insult the women who had just won the gold medal. Instead, the guys laughed, and I get it. I get it. I get it. You're in a locker room. You just won. You're all excited, and you have the president calling you. But you don't have to laugh at his jerky joke. And I think it's time is over for talking about women like their battle axes or there's such a pain to be here. And oh, the ladies. It's tiresome in the extreme. I'm not someone who doesn't like a good joke. I put up with Scots all the time.

53:09Kara Swisher:But this is just not funny. And it isn't funny to the women's team. Now, a day later, after Trump did invite the U.S. women's hockey team, it turns out they simply can't make it. They don't want to hang with you. A spokesman for the team said, we are sincerely grateful for the invitation extended to our gold medal winning U.S. women's hockey team and added that they would not be able to attend, quote, due to the timing and previously scheduled academic and professional commitments. I love that. And I'm going to just relate very quickly. When my son Louis was on a men's soccer lacrosse team, there was an audio of something where it really insulted the girls in the class really badly.

53:49Kara Swisher:Like, really, like it was a dumb, stupid, sexually charged song they played. I don't remember it exactly, but they got a video of it, of course, because everything's videotaped. And it was gross what they were doing. They were insulting their classmates, like, in a really sexist way. and Louis wasn't singing the song. He was in the video. He wasn't singing the song. But I remember, you know, when I saw it, I was so disappointed in him because he didn't say anything, right? He didn't like, and I know he couldn't. He was in the locker room. And so we had a great talk at the time. And I remember spending a lot of time talking to both my boys about their role in, like you say, protecting women, not just protecting, but don't laugh at stupid shit like that.

54:32Kara Swisher:Like, you don't have to go along just to get along. And it was really, it reminded me of that moment when Louis said to me at the time, you know, I didn't do anything. And I said, you didn't do anything. That's exactly my problem with you at this moment. And I get it. I get what it's like being a boy. I get the pressures of it. But honestly, U.S. men's soccer hockey team, you know, just be better. Let's just say. Let's say be better. That's what I would say to you. If I was your parent, I'd slap you back to last Sunday. Anyway, that's my—go ahead. Congratulations, by the way, U.S. men's hockey team and the women's hockey team.

55:08Scott Galloway:I thought the highlight of the Winter Olympics was Megan Keller, who scored the overtime. I grew up going to hockey games. It was one of the few ways my father and I bonded. We used to go to L.A. Kings games and watch Marcel Dion and Whitey Whiting and Rogie Vachon. and so I know something about hockey and I used to go to Maple Leafs games with my father. The overtime goal from Megan Keller, hands down for me, was the ultimate demonstration of athleticism, grace under pressure. And keep in mind, you know, these women are really doing it for the love of the sport. They don't, their league does not pay a lot.

55:49Kara Swisher:Can I point out, Alyssa Liu and the three others, the three other women from the U.S. were all supportive of each other. Like, they weren't like at each other's fucking... Yeah, there's this level

55:57Scott Galloway:of camaraderie. Alyssa Liu, amazing. I do not fault the men for laughing. They're in a locker room and they're talking to the president. And most of them are like 23-year-olds from Wisconsin. I get it. Not that there's anything wrong. I don't fault them. I fault the president for not setting a good example for young men. You know, that's just not... And, but the women... Did you see the final of the women's hockey?

56:20Kara Swisher:Yeah, it was amazing.

56:21Scott Galloway:The goal she pulled off was so extraordinary. I kept watching it over. I spent 20 minutes watching it 40 times. I know. It's amazing. Anyways, Megan Teller was—

56:32Kara Swisher:They don't get to be starring in heated rivalry, et cetera. It really is. They're an astonishing team. Oh, my God. It's like the women's soccer team. Heated rivalry with women's hockey. That's already happening. You got one viewer. I'm sorry. That's already happening. But we'll go into it in great detail. Go ahead. Yours win and fail.

56:48Scott Galloway:Well, it's one thing, and that is— Okay, so we let our thoroughbred U.S. corporations run, and we have structural systemic laws that tell them, okay, you can't pour mercury into the river, and if an industry becomes so consolidated it starts extracting unfair rents from labor or consumers, the government moves in. Other than that, one of the reasons for our economic growth is we err on a lack of regulation or government intervention. When the president starts weighing in and saying the most ridiculous shit about a board member, he called her racist. Oh, yeah, Susan Rice, like famous racist. So that's not even my fail, though.

57:30Scott Galloway:We've expected that kind of weak and weird socialist slash communist slash autocratic behavior that hurts our economy. What I can't stand is that Democrats do not lack all creativity around how we're going to strike back. And let me just give you one idea because I love the idea of economic activism. and that is, all right, a kind of beltway on-ramp into greater wealth is the following. You serve in Congress or in the cabinet and you go on because you're an impressive person with strong connections and an understanding of the world. You go on to serve on corporate boards and make some money. I bet Susan Rice has made millions of dollars on the board of Netflix.

58:17Scott Galloway:And by the way, I think it's great. She worked her ass off. I don't mind. There should be a cooling off period going to work for lobbyists. But I have been on boards with former the New York Times. We had Bill Kennard, the former head of the FCC, went on to be the American ambassador to the EU. I was on a board with Rick Snyder, who went on to be the governor of Michigan. I think it's great that they serve on boards. They're talented, thoughtful people. They deserve to make money. I have no problem with it. But if the president starts fucking with Democrats on boards, Leader Jeffries and Senator Schumer, why the fuck are you not fucking back?

58:54Scott Galloway:And this is the following. For example, Mike Pompeo, former head of the CIA and Secretary of State, he is on a board, and I did this in about 10 minutes of research. He is on a board called Vion, which is a single class share company. And when I used to do activism, I had to spend$150 ,000 to$250 ,000 to file 13D and nominate directors and get lawyers involved. I have now written up the filings for nominating governors at this single class share company. And I did it in about seven minutes using AI. I'm going to buy one share in this company and I'm going to start targeting Republicans on boards and not renominating them and then maybe go after another board member.

59:45Scott Galloway:And anyone in Congress who's a Republican who decides they, too, would like to make some money on boards. Well, why aren't Schumer and Jeffrey saying we're going to we're going to be back in power, folks? And if you want to go serve on boards, as Susan Rice did, we're going to start fucking with you.

1:00:04Kara Swisher:Now, look, Scott, the thing is, what he's doing is totally wrong, so you should do the wrong thing in order to meet him. Like, that is a hard decision.

1:00:11Scott Galloway:You fire a gun at me. I am pulling out my gun, and I am shooting you in the fucking face. All right.

1:00:17Kara Swisher:This is about incentives.

1:00:19Scott Galloway:And this notion that Democrats that we're higher and mightier and that we'll restore the— Fuck that. Okay. Fuck that. You want to deny the Constitution and engage in depraved criminal behavior against us? Well, fine, folks. If you think we're going to restore, just go back to being the nice guys who are genteel and restore the norms, no, that is the wrong incentives. There needs to be a loud and clear message to the Republicans who are grabbing their ankles as America gets fucked here. Be clear. You want an autocracy? Fine. We'll show you an autocracy when we're back in charge. Sorry for the lecture.

1:01:00Kara Swisher:Okay. All right. I think they're not going to be invited to the next Democratic getaway. There's other ways to fight back that are just as devastating to them, that you don't have to do what they did. There's lots. Someone called me from one of these companies and it's like, oh, I don't think the Democrats are going to hurt us. I said, oh, they're going to hurt you. You're just not the same way. They're not afraid.

1:01:19Scott Galloway:They think we're going to go back to strongly worded letters.

1:01:21Kara Swisher:No, they're not going to. I think there's going to be action. I do. I just don't think we have to do it the way Trump is doing, which is essentially acting like Putin. Anyway, just for people who don't know, Trump's favorite judge, speaking of fails, Eileen Cannon, just blocked the public release of special counsel Jack Smith's report on the classified documents case against Trump, trying her best to get into the Supreme Court. Eileen or Aileen, whatever your fucking name is, you suck. And you're going to be overturned on appeal. Anyway, we want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business, tech, or whatever's on your mind.

1:01:51Kara Swisher:We don't want to hear from Judge Cannon at all anymore, hopefully. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 85551-PIVOT. Elsewhere in the Kara and Scott universe, this week on On with Kara Swisher, I spoke with Chris Applehands and Maggie Kang, directors of the K-pop Demon Hunters. Maggie is also the creator. And Scott, you got a mention. Let's listen. How do we get Scott to watch it? Do we just tell him? I don't know. Let's tell him everyone's hot. That'll work, right? Because everyone's hot. So watch it, by the way. Do it. I just got him to watch Heated Rivalry. Ooh.

1:02:25Kara Swisher:So I know. It took a bit, but I finally got him. I am going to make, when I'm with him at South by Southwest, I'm going to go to his room and we're going to watch it. He and I will have to cuddle with him. But that's what, if it takes, that's what it takes. I'm going to do that. So I will, I promise I will get him to watch it. And I will give him an edible and I'll put him right in front of it. And that's how it's going to go. Just so you know, Scott. What's the show? K-pop Demon Hunters. You have not watched it.

1:02:51Scott Galloway:I have knowledge but I don't have young kids isn't it for little kids

1:02:54Kara Swisher:no it's an adult movie just watch it you're gonna watch it with me you and I are gonna watch it okay we're gonna couple

1:02:59Scott Galloway:yeah that's definitely got involved some sort of THC

1:03:02Kara Swisher:Edibles they're sexy cartoons you'll love it aren't those folks

1:03:07Scott Galloway:billionaires now isn't that the most watched thing ever on Netflix it is

1:03:10Kara Swisher:but I think they didn't get again like he did Rivalry they got it they got it for a song but I think they did fine I mean they're amazing it's an amazing podcast I love K-pop demon hunters it's not for kids actually it's a very complex show. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back on Friday.

1:03:29Scott Galloway:Today's show was produced by Lara Neiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Nertat engineered this episode. Rich Shibley edited the video. Thanks also to Dubroz, Miss Rivera, and Dan Shalanda Sharquah's Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at All things tech and business care. Have a great rest of the week.

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