Trump Mobile, WhatsApp Ads, and Bezos Wedding Protests

24:24As AI replaces Google searches, news sites aren't getting much need of referral traffic. We've talked about this. Organic search traffic to HuffPost and Washington Post is reportedly down 50 % over the last three years. Google search volume on Apple's Safari browser just fell for the first time in 20 years. TV news is feeling the pinch, with social media reportedly now surpassing TV as American's top news source. And over at Amazon, Danny Jassy told employees that AI would come for their jobs. What a nice memo to get from your CEO. You suck. I'm going to fire you. Amazon is the second largest private employer in the U.S.

24:55It's a huge company, a million people, whatever. The number is enormous. This thing everyone should have seen coming here in advertising, every publisher that didn't see what they were going to do coming. At first, they stole your content and got in the catbird seat and pushed stuff to you so you were beholden to them. And now they're just taking your shit and putting it up. And I have to say it's very effective because that's the first thing. I don't go any further than the first AI thing because it's gotten increasingly better. I mean, what's the point of going, except then I then go organically to people's sites like the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal or whatever.

25:34But it's a real killer for the clickbait websites. It's a death sentence for them, much like what happened to demand media many years ago when Google did the, when they did that redo of whatever, Panda, whatever the fuck they called it. Yeah, so I mentioned this probably once a month on the podcast because I'm desperate for your affirmation, but I was on the board of the New York Times from my way to 2010. They didn't like you, I heard. Not true. They kicked me off after 24 months. Okay. Salzburgers, really, really talented, thoughtful people, seriously. Choosing my words very carefully. We had something called About.com, and it was essentially a content forum.

26:14And we'd have somebody who did a whole thing on Southern cooking, and then we would optimize it for Google. And then Google would send traffic, and we'd split revenue from them, and the site was doing really well, and we could have sold it for a billion dollars. And I remember saying, why on earth would we not sell this thing? This is not our business. A billion dollars is a lot of money. And they said, no, because the management team wanted to accessorize an analog outfit with digital earrings, thinking it made them look younger, right? It was their bell bottoms or whatever it was. They thought it made them seem hipper.

26:43and then one night literally overnight uh google changed their algorithm and 40 of our traffic went away like that like 40 and i had this conversation and i have this conversation with any entrepreneur i have this conversation with jessica yellen news not noise which i absolutely love she's dependent upon meta yeah i'm like the only thing a partner of meta and alphabet have in common over the medium and long term is you're going to get fucked yeah they will run their fingers through your hair, send you traffic, call you partners, invite you to the cool party tonight, and then slowly but surely, the moment you have anything resembling real margin that they can come from, they will tweak their algorithm and suck it out.

27:25Google used to be the best place to go. Now the first two or three pages are where they can go to further monetize. And the thing that really bothers me about these generative AI descriptions now is if you type in, give me the major themes from Kara Switcher's book, Burn Book. It'll list links to Amazon where they can buy the book, but it summarizes it. Yeah, it does. Which means they've crawled your content. That's right. Which means they haven't, are they paying Penguin Portfolio Random House for Simon and Schuster? No. So this is a moment in time. Going back to the New York Times, I suggested that we form a consortium and stop letting Google crawl our data.

28:04I mean, they've convinced us that this is good for us and they're sending us traffic to run shitty banner ads that nobody watches that we get 50 cent CPMs on and they run stuff across the right rail that is much more targeted and they get a dollar for so they're giving us two pennies they're taking a buck from our gorgeous content right and we're supposed to be happy about it and they said no we're in the business of eyeballs this is before they went subscription that was a moment in time where we could have pushed back on search where if we'd all banded together as content creators and said we're gonna license it to Bing which was still a player at the time, or to Google, we could have extracted a lot of money.

28:40We are at that moment in time right now with AI. Yeah. And that is we need a very aggressive, very intelligent group of people and a lot of money for lawyers to go to every one of these guys and say, we have evidence everywhere that you are crawling our amazing content that includes people who are willing to go to war zones and risk their lives. It includes people that spent a lot of money on graduate education such that they can fact check and write reasonably well and compelling narrative. And you are crawling their data and running these synopses and not paying them. Right. Exactly. And the Times and others spent, you made that point about the fact checking on the article about me that you got called, he's here in the room, Ben is here, but.

29:22The puff piece? Yes, the puff piece. The puff piece? No, it was not. It was very hard hitting. Oh my God. So anyway. Literally, I got a call. Can you talk about her leadership skills? Oh, God. Make it stop. Puff piece. Now, you're just jealous. Did you see my puff piece in the FT? Yes, I did. Daddy got a little love from the FT. That's right. It's too bad everybody reads the New York Times. Hello, ladies. Yeah. FT, subscription only. How many people read the FT piece? How many people read the New York Times piece? Everybody, right? Thank you. Okay, anyway. That literally? Okay, just so you know, you're all cynical.

29:57This is what advertising has become. Advertising media used to shape culture. Now it falls me to the fucking urologist on Instagram. Congratulations. Well done. In any way, in any case, they will do it again and they will do it again and again. And they have no interest. I will give you one very quick. When I, I was at Google when they started and Larry Page was taking me around, showing me the office and there was a room and I've told this story full of television sets and they were all on. And it was, everything at Google was weird at the time. You'd turn a corner and there'd be a tent or there's something.

30:26It was all, it was a very strange, quirky culture. And I was like, oh, a room of television is like Circuit City, essentially. And I said, what are you doing? At this point, Larry was carrying a pollution meter around his neck because he was worried about pollution. And I was like, no matter what you do, Carmen, you're going to die. I did the moonstruck line to him. And he's like, what is that? What do you mean I'm going to die? I'm like, you're going to die. Like, this was the kind of conversation. But we get to this room. It's full of TVs. I'm like, what are you doing in there? And he goes, we're taping TV.

30:55And this is exactly where he talks. And I go, taping TV. He goes, yes, all of TV. And I said, you're taping TV for what? They were crawling it through closed captioning so they could search it. And I said, did you get any of the copyright to do that? And they were doing the same with books very soon after. And he goes, why would I need to do that? And I was like, because other people own that content, not you. And you're a fucking shoplifter. And he was like, I think it's going to be good for the world. I said, I think it's going to be good for you because no one's going to do it after. So we had this big debate right there.

31:26But this is in the DNA of these companies. Let me tell you, shoplifting and thievery is in the thing. And Walt Mossberg got it right when he called them information thieves many years ago. And I think that's absolutely true. And then they serve you the solution for it. Like they give you info cancer and then say, we have the medicine to cure you of info cancer, which they don't, which is a line from Mountainhead this week. Anyway, speaking of things that might cause cancer, when we come back, we'll talk about Trump launching a mobile plan.

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33:40and we're back live from con

33:47we've got some time for questions good the trump organization has announced a mobile phone plan for and a 499 smartphone they said will be made in the u.s this is not true you cannot make a phone in the u.s but they don't care if they lie about things like that Trump Mobile will offer plans under$50. It's like the Bible. Will offer plans under$50 a month. The T1 smartphone appears to have a gold covering with an American flag, obviously. Gold is best. For those who haven't seen that, it's a great skit on Apple. Gold is best. Get the gold. This device will run on Google's Android operating system.

34:20And Trump Organization says it will be made in the U.S. Again, it's not possible. But meanwhile, in the podcasting world, the boys at SmartLess have also launched their own mobile phone company. We're not going to be doing that, just so you know. But this is ridiculous. Shira Ovi did a great thing. She tried to sign up. They charged her immediately. She can't get her service. It's very confusing. It's obviously just, he probably did, they did a deal with someone. It's not, Trump isn't running it. It's like stakes, except now people buy it, essentially. Any thoughts on this, creating a mobile service?

34:55Well, it... Why would we create a mobile service? Why would a podcast? The grift and the criminality and the monetization of the White House has become so outrageous that this doesn't feel strange. If Obama or Reagan or Carter had tried to launch a phone service, Fox News would have had their hair on fire for seven days straight. But because we now have a president who opens a Swiss banking account, that Qatar or anyone else can say, I'm putting$100 million in tonight at 12.03 a.m. and nobody knows. And by the could you stop sending shipments of arms to these people or you know basically the white house is now for sale the criminality is just so outrageous that we now see the monetization of something that this should not happen this is crazy but it almost feels like oh that's not a big deal right sending your kids to qatar who is the political mouthpiece and funder of hamas and then taking a 400 million dollar bribe from them well if you can do that okay let them launch a phone.

35:52So what's so sad about this, by the way, you can get the exact same plan someone did an analysis. Yeah, because some of these plans are great because you are being overcharged by Verizon and AT &T. So some of these other plans are terrific because they basically ride on Verizon and AT &T. They pay them. And some of them are wonderful. And the prices should not be these prices. Well, not to get too deep into the weeds here, but there's a duopoly. A small number of companies own the networks. And the FTC and the DOJ came in and said, you have to lease them out to people to start what's called an MVNO.

36:26And a lot of great companies, including Mint Mobile, came in with fantastic advertising and acquired a bunch of customers. And then they basically sell to one of the big guys. They end up being kind of niche customer acquisition vehicles for the duopoly that is Verizon and AT &T. Right. That's what I was meant, for sure. But you can get the same plan for less money. But I don't, I like these little niche offerings. If people are that crazy about Trump and they want to do it, but it's just insane that somebody who has the power of the purse, power of laws, gets to decide the most important decisions globally that sets the tone for the rest of the world, is selling a fucking phone.

37:04I mean, come on. And we become so numb to how terrible and inappropriate all of this is. And just the incredible erosion. I have found, I'm on a bunch of panels, and I have found I'm the anger pillow for Cannes. They set me up, you say brand is dead, and then they have a very articulate British person say why brand matters more than ever. And I have felt, I don't want to say anti-American resentment, but I just think globally, our brand, you want to talk about brands? there has never been a brand erosion of a brand as big fallen as far as fast as the U.S. in the last 151 days. Well, Tesla, but go ahead.

37:43Fair enough. That's fair. And that's still going. But if you think about it, we used to be the good guys. People said, okay, they get it wrong, but generally speaking, the White House has an occupant in there that may be dumb, maybe not the brightest person in the world, may be arrogant, may be imperialist, bad wars, but generally speaking, our hearts in the right place. I've always found that. And what I'm sensing when we go abroad is a certain level of fear. Like I think people quite frankly took America a little bit for granted. They sort of said, oh, you're smart, you're nice, you have more weapons than anybody.

38:19That's kind of nice. And then when they realized, okay, our rich Uncle Sam's gone fucking crazy. They're like, wow, we kind of miss our uncle. We kind of miss the old uncle. That felt pretty good. And also there's a real decent level. I find that it's not, I don't want to say there's an anti-American thing in France. We're still wonderful allies. We've pushed back fascism together. But what I notice visibly when I'm on panels, someone makes an anti-American joke and that people just love it. That people just love it now. So that erosion of brand equity has enormous impact on it. It means that one of the largest exports in our nation, U.S.

38:57education, where we make$42 billion a year, we make$40 billion selling TV shows and movies overseas. We make$42 billion getting the richest kid from El Salvador to come to NYU Stern and pay $288 ,000 in tuition over four years. All those numbers are accurate. We get the best and brightest, the flows of human capital in the U.S. People have one aspiration of the best and brightest, typically, and that is to come to the U.S. If you're noticing a terrorist cell forming and people wanting to get on planes to D.C. or to San Francisco, there are a lot of people who say, you know what, Americans are good people, and they notify our embassy.

39:32They highlight security threats. I have always run global companies, small companies, but global companies. And I I was found when I walked into Samsung or to LVMH or Toyota in, you know, Tokyo, Seoul or Paris. And I took for granted, you know what? People generally like Americans. They generally speaking think you're obnoxious, funny, but they like us. They think, oh, you're. Not now, though. We're going to have to. Well, that's my point. That's my point is that that brand erosion. I mean, you're in the business of brand. Brand erosion means less margins. It means less consideration. It means less profit.

40:08the erosion and goodwill will translate to an economic hardship and making our soft targets much bigger targets. Except for the Trump family, which is making out like bandits. And I mean bandits. I'm stressing bandits. What could they sell next? Then I want to get to questions because we only got a few minutes. I have no idea. I think erectile dysfunction. Well, if you think about advertising, advertising used to shape culture. Now it sells creatine to self-hating people like me. Yeah, good. Excellent. All right. One more quick break and then we'll take some questions from the audience.

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42:54Scott, we're back. Let's take some questions right here. Do you think Trump and Musk are going to make up? No, I do not. No, I think Trump has he's used his Musk has outlived his usefulness and he's he's a he's a live wire and he takes away too much attention. And Trump doesn't need him at this point. He's got his billions of dollars. He's got his presidency. He'll probably get off scot free. Not everyone in that administration will get off scot free, but Trump certainly will. And so I think he doesn't need him. And the only thing is Musk is not, like I said, it's not like Omarosa leaving. There'll be if Scott, although he has qualities of Omarosa, although I like her a lot better.

43:35I think that she will, I think that he will, he could cause trouble. You just never know what he's going to do. So I think that's one of the, he has some power, especially if he changes the algorithm on Twitter, he could fuck with him there, he could fuck with him a lot of places. That said, there's plenty of people rushing in to take his place, and Trump's got most of tech by the ball. So, for some reason, I don't know why, because they could certainly do damage to him, too. I don't know. Very quick? Quick. No. No. No. I'm not going quick. You don't love the whole me. You don't love me. Bowen Yang is waiting.

44:11Oh, I'll go quick. The gays are waiting to come on. They want to see the gays. This happens every day. I'm a gay. This is a much bigger, bolder, cattier, stupider version of the following, and it happens millions of times in corporate America. My company was acquired. I didn't like working there. They didn't like me. I didn't like them. That's a little harsh. Shocking. Different culture. And they said, okay. I said, I want out. And they said, fine, we want you out. And they gave me a shit ton of money, and I signed non-disparagement and non-compete agreements. That is effectively what's going on here.

44:45They have fired him. He wanted input on CIA, NASA, and IRS picks. They said, no, you've overstepped your boundaries. We need you out. He started shitposting them, calling the president a pedophile. It didn't seem to bother him when he wanted subsidies. Can you think of anything worse you could call somebody? And meanwhile, all the right-wing media that was saying, release the Epstein files. There's all these Democrats. They're all of a sudden like, oh, that's not true. That's just Trump. He just hung out with Epstein for fun. I just love how all of a sudden they're like, oh, conspiracy. Anyways, they basically said to him, boss, we're not going to give you extra money, but we're not going to put Tesla and SpaceX out of business.

45:20But you have to sign a non-disparagement. This is a firing. And he's basically been told, okay, if you want us to take SpaceX from 300 billion to 30 billion by losing all contracts, and you want us to take Tesla from 950 to 50, you better shut the fuck up. Sign here. This happens every day in corporations. He's much more leveraged than you realize. If Starlink falls apart, he's got a lot of problems. And Tesla's on a downward spiral, which has something to do with his Trump support, but a lot to do with his lack of good cars. That's really, I mean, at the very heart of it. Hi, I'm Kendra Barnett, senior tech reporter.

45:54I'm going to shoot. Thank you for being here today. I just wanted to ask if you guys could share any predictions about the remedies that we're going to see in both of the DOJ cases. I think I think probably they'll have to break it up. I think they'll have to be spinning something off. I think that Judge is really smart, actually know a lot about him. But I think Google's on the ropes on that one. The Facebook one, I'm not sure, because some people felt it wasn't a particularly strong case, and Facebook's being ultra-aggressive. And they've got some support for the idea that they do have—I think it's a better case that they brought back that Lena Kahn then resubmitted.

46:32but I think a lot of people feel that possibly Facebook will possibly, I think the judge will rule against them but it will go to appeals it will go on and on and on but I think the Google one is probably a significant issue and it will keep going but the Google one is more and it's very clear what's happened there and they should not be on every side of every market including you know YouTube is now television they control so much stuff and it's so obvious that they should be broken up in some fashion But scrolling back the Instagram purchase, I don't see it happening. Yeah, there's a lot of moving parts here.

47:07But I think if Alphabet stock continues to underperform it, for some reason it goes down, I think that they will decide to prophylactically spin YouTube. Because I think once an asset, Alphabet trades at a P of, I think, 16. The S &P trades at 24. The average S &P company is not nearly as impressive as Alphabet. At some point, the shareholders of Alphabet will go, all right, the whole is worth less than the sum of its parts. So maybe we can kill two birds with one stone, go to the DOJ or the FTC and say, what if we spin YouTube, which would probably be worth more than Netflix. It captures 11 % of viewership.

47:39Netflix captures 7.7. So I think if they see the tea leaves, it would be good for shareholders and potentially maintain the wolves, the FTC and DOJ wolves at the door. I think you'll see a spin. Having said that, every prediction I have made around DOJ and FTC over the last decade has been entirely wrong. But the Trump administration hasn't pulled back on this, which is interesting. I don't you know, I think they probably thought they might get a little bit of but it doesn't matter. This isn't in front of a judge and we'll see what happens. But they don't seem particularly interested in helping these companies.

48:12But I do think Google is probably going to have to spend something off at some point. Anyway. OK, this is the end. OK, thanks. But Bowen Yang is waiting and he's sick of you. OK, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot. Be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Scott, let me give it to you. Read us out. You think I know by now. I'm not going to wait for you. Go ahead. Go. All the people we value so much. I'm getting like the hook situation. Can you please? Today's show was produced by Lara Nehman, Zoe Marcus, Taylor Griffin, and Kevin Oliver. Ernie Injured on Engine this episode.

48:42Thanks also to Jubaro's Miss Averio and Dan Shalon, the Shaq Kerouas, Vox Media Executive Producer Podcast. Thank you to Lauren Stark, Ray Chow, and Jackie Sanguia. Do I get that right, Jackie? I've known you for so long. All right. Come on. She's in charge of events. She does a great job. At Vox. Anyone in charge of events, it's what I call an invisible until you fuck up job. Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. I say that with affection. She knows it. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at redemindemag.com slash pod.

49:12We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Thank you so much. We love you. We love you.

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