Trump's Tariff Pause, Apple's Highs and Lows, and Musk v. Navarro

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24:32Scott, we're back. Trump's tariff pause brought some much-needed good news for Apple on Wednesday after its worst four-day trading stretch since 2000, if you can believe that. It was like a million years ago. Apple stocks soared 15%, its best day since January 1998. But the ongoing and increasing China tariffs are still a major problem for the company as Apple makes about 90 percent of its phones there. Apple is reportedly now planning to source more phones from India to Austin, some of these costs. A couple of things. Apple, if you're Tim Cook, you've got to you've got to this is the biggest test of your metal, I think, ever in your in your tenure.

25:07You've done a very good job, but this is really tough. Apple was exempt from broad tariffs in Trump's first term, but that's not happening now, despite Tim Cook's$1 million donation to Trump's inauguration. It also announced a commitment to invest over$500 billion in the U.S. over the next four years back in February. You know what? It had done that in the previous administration, and it was stuff they were going to do anyway, so that was kind of a nothing burger. So one thing Trump could do is throw Apple a lifeline with an exemption, another exemption. One thing they're saying, which is nonsense, is that the White House says the solution is to move iPhone manufacturing to the United States.

25:44Press Secretary Carolyn Leavitt, who is 27, everybody, let me be clear, she does not know what she's talking about, said in her briefing this week that Trump believes we have the labor, the workforce, the resources. Carolyn, you're an idiot. Even if that were to happen, it would cost$30 billion in three years for Apple to move just 10 % of their supply chain to the U.S., according to one analyst. and the price for the iPhone would soar from$1 ,000 to$3 ,500, which is a non-starter. So there's no plans to move iPhones to the U.S. at all. The short-term benefit for Apple is that people have been flooding into their store to buy iPhones.

26:20Everyone's like, get one now. You know, there's a tariff panic happening and how much these are going to cost. I mean, they're really squeezed. So what's their best thing? An exemption? which Tim Cook do? Because sucking up didn't work, which I guess more sucking up my way. I'm fairly confident there will be no tariff on Apple products. One, I think he's going to blink around these tariffs to begin with with China when the market tells him what you've just outlined, that we're not as strong as we think relative to China too. Tim Cook is the business person that Donald Trump thinks he is. And that is Tim will be smart.

26:54He'll go there. He'll kiss his ass. And also, if you want to talk about a cult, the cult of iOS, us. I mean, first off, the insane notion that we want to bring these jobs back, Dave Chappelle summarized it perfectly. We want to wear Nikes, we don't want to make them. The average assembly wage of an assembly line worker entry level in China in an Apple factory is$500 a month. We want to bring those jobs back to America. You want to enrage a cult, take iPhones to 3 ,500 bucks. And then you're going to see the largest, the most valuable company in history, an American company, lose the value of the German GDP over the course of a year.

27:33You're going to take pushback people's retirements. Apple's going to have to withdraw all sorts of growth plans. And you want to piss off every millennial and Gen X in the world, take their iPhones to 3 ,500 bucks. Apple is not going to have any tariffs here. Having said that, what is Apple doing? And they've been doing it for a while. They're trying to diversify their supply chain out of China for a number of reasons. And by the way, you're talking about analyst Dan Ives. Just to get 10 % out of China takes three years and costs$40 billion. By that time, Trump will be gone. So this notion that I am fairly confident, folks, you're going to be able to have your iPhone at the same prices now.

28:14Because one, I think these China tariffs will not last because this is what she, this is how she thinks of Trump right now. The same way Logan Roy feels about his children in succession. You are not serious people. She looks at Trump and he's like, you are not serious people. We are not backing down. We didn't back down on TikTok. All these extensions are, I'm serious now. We're going to ban you unless you sell to Larry Ellison and Elon Musk. They're like, okay, hold my fucking beer. That's what they're saying now. Okay, you want a tariff as this? We'll respond with the same tariffs. It'll hurt us both.

28:47They will back down. He will blink yet again on China. And even if there are tariffs on China, he will come up with a reason not to inflame a cult that is even stronger than the MAGA cult. And that's the iOS cult. And Tim Cook will go back, go down to Mar-a-Lago, tell him he's a genius, show him a new iPhone with his picture on it with golden crusted leafed picture silhouette of Donald Trump. And he will find an exemption for Apple. I just, the idea that Apple, the iPhones are going to go to$2 ,200, much less$3 ,500, or that we're going to bring back those millions of jobs of people screwing in little things.

29:24Like every time they open their mouth, I'm like, what are you talking about? Like, where, where are you going to put these factories? And who's going to, oh, oh God, we will automate them before. And by the way, there are, then they always drag out advanced, we're going to do advanced manufacturing. It's already being done here, Carolyn Levitt, you dumbass. We have Gorilla Glass. They're already doing the high-level stuff here and creating jobs. And they think you're so stupid. I've got so many calls from tech people like, how stupid are they? And I was like, seems like extremely so, because they don't understand that why would you build a factory here with this lunatic in charge?

30:02You never know what he's going to do if he's going to arrest you. He's going to do, you know, I mean, or make your life hell. I don't know if any of this stuff is going to last, but it's so chaotic. It's like a monkey flinging feces at all of us. So we're just going to duck until he goes away. Apple is the most valuable company in the world, or was. It briefly went to number two. I think it's back to number one. We have hundreds or they have hundreds of thousands of people working in their supply chain and factories in Foxconn and in China. Those people make between$500, between kind of$20 ,000 and$40 ,000 a year.

30:38We've outsourced those jobs to China. Probably the most robust supply chain ever on a consumer level in history, maybe with the exception of the supply chain of the Manhattan Project that was kind of invented overnight and coordinated to create the bomb and save the world. Anyways, we held on. Apple has hundreds of thousands of employees across the West. And here's what they're in design, product management, strategy. Exactly, the higher end stuff. Yeah, that average about$210 ,000 a year. Better jobs, smarter information technology, services. So we have outsourced$500 a month,$20 ,000 a year jobs such that we would have more money to invest and grow our top line revenues such that we could pay more Americans$200 ,000 a year.

31:25Nike. Nike doesn't want people making two bucks an hour putting together Air Jordans. They want people who understand branding and sports sponsorships and great retail that, again, make about, I think,$150 ,000 to$180 ,000 a year. And if you want to bring back those jobs and pay people minimum wage at some plant in Lansing, Michigan. They'd rather work at McDonald's. Everyone else. All those other jobs are going to go down and pay. They would do better at McDonald's. They would do better at Amazon. It's just, oh, God, they're so dumb. Speaking of dumb, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about Elon Musk's escalating feud with Peter Navarro, in this case, Team Elon.

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34:37Scott, we're back with more headlines. The feud between Elon Musk and Trump trade advisor Peter Navarro is heating up, and Scott and I are on Team Elon this time. Musk called Navarro, quote, dumber than a sack of bricks in an ex-post on Tuesday. That was in response to Navarro saying on CNBC that Elon was a car assembler, not a car manufacturer because Tesla relies on parts around the world. Again, Press Secretary Carolyn Levitt, who I like to call Tracy Flick, had this to say about it when asked about the feud. Look, these are obviously two individuals who have very different views on trade and on tariffs.

35:15Boys will be boys, and we will let their public sparring continue. And you guys should all be very grateful that we have the most transparent administration in history. Oh, my God. Boys will be boys. Oh, God. Give me a break. This is—boys don't talk like this. Listen, I agree with Elon. I wouldn't have used some of the words he used. I like dumber than a brick and moron. The other ones I'm not so thrilled with. But, look, you can hate on Elon Musk as much as you want. He's made an astonishing company here in the United States. and really does know about this stuff, right? And have this like faux economist tell him how things work is just an astonishing thing.

35:53And in this case, but of course it's all in Elon's self-interest to get, because he needs to, you know, eat at the trough on the other stuff. But this is just, it's just like, I'm so glad Elon called him a stack of bricks or whatever he called him. I don't know. What are your thoughts? Yeah, it's weird to agree with Elon, But look, I thought, and I still think the fall guy for SignalGate is going to be well. So I think the fall guy here, when this just becomes stupider and stupider and stupider as the president continues to wake up next to an adult called the 10-year and blinks over and over and over, the fall guy will be Navarro, who, by the way, folks, spent four months in prison and has been, quote unquote, the architect or the whisperer here around the tariffs.

36:40and you know i gotta be honest if there's a if it's a war between navarro and musk i'm rooting for the bullets i'm enjoying this they both you know when you insult people like this in public you make them look bad and you also look bad but look he's right and by the way just not again i hate agreeing with but when navarro calls tesla an assembler tesla is the most american-made company in America. The greatest percentage of parts actually manufactured and assembled in the U.S., the winner of the top four or five cars. The design, the ideas behind it. Look, it hasn't been keeping up in innovation, but what an accomplishment.

37:20But there's a ranking done of who makes the most American car based on how many parts are actually that go into the car actually are made in America. And the top four or five most American-made cars are all Tesla models. So the notion somehow, Tesla is the least assembled car from foreign products of any automobile manufacturer. Fords are less American than Tesla. So Peter Navarro, I mean, my God, sit down. This guy, this is the last person you would want advising the president on economic policies. And Trump is going to get angry pretty fast when he has to blink over and over and over. Because of this guy's, I mean, it's interesting that he's in the sway of him.

38:06You know, Trump, as you and I know, has been talking about this terrible thing since the 80s. It's real, as we talked about last week. So this guy was playing into already interests that Trump has, right? But the fact that he's listening to him like this, I don't think he's going to suffer. I don't think he's going to get rid of him. I don't think he is. I think he keeps them around. They can fuck up as much as they want, which to me, this is the guy who has the reputation for firing people, but he actually doesn't. Right. He sort of does. It's still pretty early. I mean, we're only we're only 10 weeks.

38:35Yeah, that's true. That's true. I don't know. Yeah, Navarro has been sidelined. And then he was trying very desperately to pretend this was the plan. It might not be a press release or announcement on the West Lawn. It'll be a Vivek. Vivek Ramaswamy was fired. Yeah. He just did it quietly and pretended that he wanted to run for governor two years before the actual race. I think he's going to, it's like, you know, what they, by the way, I think, I think Elon's going to leave. What did they say about old soldiers? They never die. They just fade away. That's what's going to happen here. There's going to be a lot of people here who just fade away.

39:05I mean, I feel like probably somewhere in Elon's adult brain is like, what in the actual fuck, right? Like he's not, he's, he may be heinous, but he's not stupid, right? He can't like, Like, can you imagine sitting there and then, oh, God, pretending that this is, one particular one was David Sachs was like pretending this is a victory. It's not a victory. I read that tweet. I couldn't even understand it. He was right about everything again. I'm like, what was he right about? It was planned. I wrecked it. And then he fixed it. Isn't he brilliant? Like, what? Like, honestly, like, even Elon couldn't, like, tolerate that.

39:41Anyway, Navarro, goodbye. Good night. Go to sleep. You're done. Go home. or go back to prison, wherever, wherever you want to go. Anyway, a couple of quick things. SCOTUS is cutting red tape for President Trump. The past week, the court has said the administration does not have to comply with an order of directing to rehire thousands of federal employees, lift in an order, stopping the use of Alien Enemies Act for deportations, allowed the plan to freeze funding for teachers, and Chief Justice Roberts allowed the Justice Department more time to litigate whether administration must return a man who was deported by error.

40:11A lot of these rulings are temporary. They haven't made the ruling, but they've left things in place, which is just the same as making the ruling to many people. They're not doing anything. They must be like they're inundated. The Trump administration, just the way they're inundating law firms or media with all kinds of nonsense is inundating the Supreme Court with all kinds of requests and all of which take time. So they're like they're working. These old people are working overtime in this case. You know, I think they will put everything into stasis, which is exactly what Trump wants, meaning he can run roughshod.

40:45It doesn't stop anything. So thoughts? I think the darkest moments in Western progressive society have been something around camps, obviously Germany and concentration camps. I think one of the darkest moments in American history that we try to airbrush over is the fact that we took law-abiding Japanese families, some of whom had boys serving the European theater, and put them in internment camps. I think that some of the black sides to avoid Geneva Convention's laws that we spun up to basically torture combatants during the war on terrorism, I think that over time we will realize just how ugly that was.

41:25And I've said for a while that I thought similar to Germany, we were one economic shock away from doing something similar in the U.S. But it always takes on a different complexion. But when you start rounding people up and many of them don't have a criminal record and some of them just have the wrong tattoo and you essentially send them, I'm not going to call them concentration camps because I think there are different levels of depravity. And that concentration camps took, you know, took the crown for a level of depravity we haven't seen since then, fortunately. But when you send people to overcrowded prisons with no due process in another country, and then you refuse to acknowledge your mistake and bring them back, which you could do with one call, that is a form.

42:01That is going to be something we're going to look back on and think, you know, we really should have spoke up. We really should have spoken up. And also, I just want to do a shout out. Tim Miller from The Bulwark has been really good on this. He's been highlighting this and he's been a steadfast voice on this. Folks, just be clear. This stuff always takes on a different complexion. And when you allow this to happen without due process, just be careful when you get that knock on the door. So this is one of the reasons. Let me take it to economics because it seems to be the only fucking thing Americans care about is when their 401k goes up or down.

42:33One of the reasons our stocks trade at a higher multiple, one of the reasons we attract the most human capital and the most financial capital in the world is due process and rule of law. And it's tempting to bypass it. If we did away with search and seizure laws, crime would go down. It comes at a cost, right? But it's worth it. And over time, it creates the greatest economy, the greatest society. Think of America as a product. We offer more prosperity and more rights at the lowest cost in terms of taxes in the history. This is the best product ever. And a key component of that value is there is expensive, sometimes awkward, sometimes inefficient due process.

43:14So be clear when you turn a blind eye to some gay hairdresser who has done nothing wrong, who ends up in a hellscape prison in El Salvador, and no one is willing to make a call and get him out and acknowledge the mistake. At some point, that knock on the door might come for you. Correct. I mean, it's interesting, even in small ways. I have several friends who are on green cards here. They've every one of two of them in the last week have had real problems at coming back into the country. Like they wanted to look at one of my friend's messages and she refused. She said, no, you can't look at my phone, get a subpoena.

43:50And they're like, well, it would be easier on you if you let us see it. And she's like, do I have to? And they said, no. And she goes, I shall not then. I mean, they, and that's other lovely guy. He's from Switzerland, slowed down at the border, hour and a half, two hours, just like pressuring them to say things. It's just, even at the smallest level, it's everywhere. And they will come for you. They're a hundred percent come for you. Let's finish up on one more thing. I want to talk about Chris Krebs, who is head of CISA, who was fired by Trump for saying the election, the 2020 election was legal.

44:26And Trump fired him or everything was fine. And he is now going after the executive order, Chris, and removing security clearances from the company he works for, meaning Chris will probably he's going to hurt the company itself in order to get rid of Chris. and also Miles Taylor, who was the one who was deep-throat, essentially, the first administration. And they're going after them personally, trying to ruin and wreck their lives. And I don't know what you think about this. I have great regard for Chris and Miles. And what they're doing here is specifically targeting specific people via executive order because both of them told the truth.

45:06I don't know if you have any thoughts on that, but I will do anything to help Chris, whether it's raising a legal defense fund, anything else. But the fact that he's specifically targeting people now is American citizens who just did their job and told the truth is chilling as far as I'm, I couldn't be more outraged by this. I'm outraged by all of them, but this is an astonishing attack on people who just were doing their job. Yeah, like this is again, along the lines of depravity in an autocrat's handbook where he's trying to create an incentive program where if you say nice things about me, I might call you and say, oh, by the way, I get the sense the markets are gonna go up tomorrow and you get rich.

45:45Or if you come to have lunch with me in Mar-a-Lago, I'll exempt your company from these tariffs. And if you do your job and say, I see no election interference, I might come after you with the full weight of the Department of Justice. I'd like to think that our justice system will vomit on this. And the only observation I would have here, other than what you said, which is exactly right, and I think it's important that we keep raising these issues, is the timing of this was not accidental. He did it yesterday because he wants to misdirect from people to look away from the fact that he blinked and that he is literally fucking with the global economy like a drunk driver right now.

46:25So what do you know? Hey, folks, I mean, this is how weird it is. Let's pull this one out of my pocket. I want to outrage the libtards in the media and get them to look over here at what is a blatant violation of the law and the autocrat such that they stop staring at the fact that I am unilaterally taking the global economy down for no fucking good reason. So I agree with you. I think it's terrible. I appreciate you bringing it up. But quite frankly, I think it is a purposeful misdirect from the fact that he's taking the global economy down. Except I think it's more systematic. Like this is removing clearances from this company is going to force them to.

47:03He's going to have to quit because he's hurting this company. Right. The second thing is he does. He's reversing clearances, revoking clearances to law firms that don't cooperate. They can't do business, which is why they're being so acquiescent is they're losing clients. They're losing everything. If you can't if you have federal business and you can't do federal business because you don't have security clearances or the government won't work with you, you're fucked. Like it's it is part of a bigger picture of fucking with people's economics. Right. This is this is the goal here with Chris and Miles is to fuck with their economics and to fuck with the economics people they work and affiliate with.

47:37Not a you know, finding a lawyer is going to be hard because they fuck with the lawyers. The media is nervous. You know, I mean. And then illegally reward your allies. This is part of the same thing. Even if it's a distraction, it's also trying to kneecap everybody so they can't come after you in some fashion, whether it's the media, the lawyers. Obviously, the Justice Department has lost every bit of ethical boundaries. It's over because of that. Another oily factotum, Pam Bondi. You know, it's just I think it is a distraction. And yet it's also part of the same plan when he does stupid stuff like this with the economy, not just stupid, but dangerous and devastating.

48:20He can then threaten people at the same time. It's a similar thing. Anyway. All right, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

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51:06Okay, Scott, let's hear a prediction. What's your prediction? I have three, but they're all related. One, blink. This guy will blink again. The tariffs, you know, okay, 90-day pause. more uncertainty, more reduction in the multiple awarded by global investors on every company in the U.S. because we are now, brand America is toxic uncertainty. So this 90-day pause is ridiculous. He will, and then the 100, I think we're at 125 % tariff on China. He will blink again. The tariffs will come dramatically down because quite frankly, Xi looks at Trump and says, you are not serious people. Folks, this isn't going to happen.

51:50The tariffs are going to come way down. Trump will blink again. Even more confident, there will be no tariffs, incremental tariffs on Apple products. Tim Cook will play Trump like a fiddle. Trump will be scared to piss off the cult of iOS, which is huge in the United States, and he will not want to kneecap our shiniest, brightest, most handsome thoroughbred, in that as Apple. That's not going to happen. In addition, we're going to find out in somewhere between three years and nine months or sooner that the greatest criminal insider trading took place yesterday. There's just no way this administration who was, one, telling the DOJ to drop all cases against a mayor accused of conspiring with a foreign agent because he supports the administration.

52:46Two, that creates a Swiss banking account that you can put money into with no record. Three, tells all, after getting a quarter of a billion dollars from the crypto community, tells everyone investigating platforms in the crypto community for good reason to stop all investigations, to believe that this administration did not leak insider information or engage in massive market manipulation yesterday, we're going to find out that April 9th was literally the biggest grift day in history. But will they do anything about it? Will the SEC do something? He was pretty silent, this new acting SEC. Nothing will happen until January of 2029 if a Democrat is elected, only if, only if.

53:30But in this economy, in this digital age, there'll be digital records everywhere. They can just go through, they can use AI to go through who was buying and selling all of these options 10 minutes before. There's phone records and digital servers everywhere. And they're just, I think, going to find dozens, if not hundreds of people who have a connection to the White House, who were given a wink and a nod and made millions of dollars engaging in market manipulation or trading on non-material, non-public material information. This will go down as the biggest grift day in history, Wednesday, April 9th.

54:10All right. That's a good one. Those are good ones, and they're all related, and they're all really depressing in so many ways. Do you have anything happy? Anything? Anything? I don't know. I'm excited about— The new Mission Impossible is coming. You want to go with me? You keep talking about taking me to a movie. I don't really go to many movies anymore. You love Mission Impossible. Now that you sent me an intimate picture of us, I think it's time. I did. I'm your private dancer. I love that song. A dancer for money. I'm your private dancer. Oh, my God. A dancer for money. I love that album. That whole album.

54:43Let me just say that. That was a great album. Go listen to that album. I listened to it when I was in my early 20s. I love that fucking album. Yeah. Did you like it? Yeah. Remember, she made her way back. Yeah. Whenever I think of that, I think of Marissa Tomei from the movie The Wrestler. I think I could have ended up with Marissa Tomei. She's a beauty. I love her. She's beautiful. She's so hot. And she's age-appropriate for me. Anyway, so. Okay. All right. You're married. Okay. All right. Oh, her. Anyway. Anyways. Oh, wait. You want to go back to my college tour? Someone asked me to personify Duke.

55:15Okay. By the way, did I tell you in the middle, like you're on these tours and in the middle of the U Chicago and Duke tours, I did the same thing with my son. Totally inappropriate. Now he mentions the person giving the tour said, we want to know the real you, DMP word. And someone asked, what's the admissions rate? Okay, 4 % at Duke in the University of Chicago, which means that, so everyone is there with their two overprotective parents. Looking around. So if there's 25 people or 75 people on the tour, which is the average size of the tour, one of those people, one of those kids is getting in.

55:50So I said to my son, as soon as they said 4%, I said, let's leave the tour. And he said, why? And I said, let's break up with this bitch before she breaks up with us. And he looked at me and he knew exactly what I meant. And we peaced out and we went and checked out the stadiums and went and got food. But I'm like, it is so insane. Anyways, back to Duke. They're down to 4%. Duke will produce, Duke is the new Harvard. Duke will produce more presidents in the next 50 years than Harvard because presidents are one of two things. They're either really fucking impressive or ridiculously rich. Obama, Clinton, the former, you know, Trump, W, although I think W is actually a decent man.

56:32They're really rich. And Duke has more really freakishly impressive and really rich people than any university right now. All right. Duke is the new Harvard. Okay. All right. But you're peaced out because you broke up with that bitch. 4%. Why do we want to put – why would you want to do – that's like me. It's like the Hunger Games. That's like me at a bar with hot people. It's just not going to happen. It's just not going to happen. I mean, have at it. If there was Common App in a bar, I'd be all over it. But, you know, not going to happen. All right. You know, I'm not going to go into it because we've got to go.

57:03But I taught at Duke for a semester. Of course you did. Anyway, it's lovely. Journalism? Yes. Beautiful campus. Anyway, thank you, Scott. It was very thoughtful. And it gave me a good laugh last night. I'm glad. Anyway, it was very touching. Walt never sent me a picture of him nearly naked. If you've got a question of your own that you'd like answered, send it our way. Go to nymag.com slash pivot. Send a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. But elsewhere in the Karen Scott universe, this week in Prof G Conversations, Scott spoke with Ian Bremmer, president and founder of The Eurasia Group, one of our favorites.

57:36Let's listen to a clip. Longer term, there are some winners. And China long term will also benefit because the United States will have given up so much reputational capital and China will be able to take advantage of that, particularly in the global South, but also to a degree in Asia, the Japanese, the South Koreans, to a degree in Europe. But in the near term, China gets hit really badly. In the near term, Mexico and Canada get hit really badly. In the near term, the United States is the comparative winner. And I expect that to be reflected in the markets. So it's a little different than what you were saying, but in the long term.

58:14Yeah. And by the way, on anything geopolitics, you know, go with Ian's view. he's very bright. Okay, that's the show. Thanks for listening to Pivot and be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. We'll be back next week. Scott, read us out.

58:49We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Cara, the market is down 1 ,100 points. Toxic uncertainty. Welcome to the Trump administration.

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