Trump's Venezuela Oil Gambit, ICE Shooting Fallout, and Warner Bros. Says No (Again)

25:37And he's fomenting it without any accountability. And to what end? I mean, again, if there's a treaty that says we can already put bases there and we haven't done it, well, why not just do that? Why are we provoking a confrontation with one of our best allies? I think he wants to expand. He wants to be the first U.S. president to expand territory since whoever it was. That is, to me, the absolute reason. So he wants to do his version of Louisiana Purchase, does he? Yes. Yeah. Well, he wants his face on Mount Rushmore. He wants his face on the coins. He's he's building his four hundred million dollar ballroom.

26:16I mean, this guy never going to get built. I'm just telling you, really get built. That's my my thoughts is that, you know, I think it's baffling for all of us because he tends to. First of all, his ideas of foreign policy are often frozen in particular vintage. Right. It's like he really does just care a lot about tariffs. He thinks that's the way to do it. And so tariffs it is, you know, resources and transactional. I think Google called it transactional predation of resources. He sees himself as doing like what China is doing or something like that. Now, of course, it's very different. It's very, very different.

26:54And it's often, as you mentioned, Bill, undermining our allies. And I think that it is very it's very difficult to watch in real time the post World War Two world order and systems be not just chipped away, but kind of kicked in the knee. And maybe or retirement. Yeah, maybe like retirement. It was always a myth, you know, like maybe it was never going to last more than 50 to 80 years. But we are witnessing the falling apart of something that doesn't mean that something else can't be rebuilt in its place. but uh for sure i think that it might be baffling to the average person because you're like why are we suddenly talking about greenland and you can say that almost every week why are we talking about x why are we talking about let me just add in one of the greenland certainly is a strategic and there are minerals to be had whatever that kind of under a lot of ice under a lot of ice by the way greenland isn't green and iceland isn't ice um i would like to point that out Thank you for that.

27:57Anytime, anytime. But to me, the best economic thing to do from a business point of view is to help Ukraine, because that is a country, if it was renovated, they have high technical expertise. We would we would speaking of U.S. benefiting economically, that's our best economic bet. That's like the one thing we won't do. Right. It's like we're doing everything. We won't do, which is shove the Russians out and create a very vibrant technologically forward. We would make a lot of bank there versus a Greenland or a Venezuela or anywhere else. To me, if that's your criteria is what's the best deal.

28:37To me, Ukraine is the best deal from if you're just going to be that venal. Can I raise one more thing that's sort of baffling to me? You have a generation of Republicans in MAGA world, whatever, who were against the forever wars. You have Navy SEALs in Congress now, lawmakers. They're there because they were against forever wars. They were against our actions abroad and interventions and they hate the neocons and they're kicking dirt over Dick Cheney's grave. And I don't understand them right now. I don't know if this is going to be like the fiscal hawks who just sort of like squirm away, you know, and don't say anything about what he's doing.

29:15But when it comes to foreign policy, the far right that is against interventionism has lost on every single argument, like whether it's Iran, whether it's whatever. Like he doesn't care what they think about that. Green talking. There are people there are people. Green has been talking about it. Like mass. But it's like leaving. Give zero F anyway. Like Rand Paul. I mean, it's sort of the same handful of people. And I legit it's like. Lindsey Graham has gotten his wings again. And all those people who allegedly didn't want intervention are oddly silent in these moments. Bill, last question here.

29:57Is there any economic goodness to this? of trying to buy Greenland. I mean, again, first of all, it's so unattractive, the way he's going about it and doing what he's doing. Are there economic benefits? There might be, Cara. How the hell are we going to know? I mean, how do we know right now whether there might be economic benefits? First of all... What I mean is if a client came to you and said, I want to buy Greenland, what would be the thing as an investment banker you would do? I want to buy Greenland? Are you out of your fucking mind? Oh, okay. Are we going to piss off one of our best allies to try to obtain this, you know, block of ice, you know, that may have strategic value?

30:39And if it's like strategic defensive value, we are, as you said, we already have the right to put bases up there. Why don't we close 16 of the 17? Let's open them again or whatever it is. If it's like controlling the Arctic and being, having a policy matter and a national defense issue. Yeah, okay. I get that. I get that. But what, you want to mine for minerals? under a mile of ice. Yeah, that might work maybe, you know, with global warming. Of course, that's not an issue anymore. We're not warming up anymore, apparently. So it's going to be like many millennium before we get under that ice. I don't think you ever spoke to a client like that.

31:14Oh, that's the way I would speak to them now. One thing, Bill, I think there's so much foreign policy action that I think when you look at, say, the Abraham Accords for the Trump administration, they feel like if you can get people doing business together, that inherently creates the environment for peaceful interaction, that the money is what is going to make those things work, not arbitrary red lines in diplomatic conference rooms. And I guess I just want your opinion. Maybe, but so far it's just been a graft for the Trump administration and the Trump family. It's all been about graft. It hasn't been about opening up really.

31:53Well, technically grift, but graft too. All right, we're going to take a quick break and come back. Maybe I've coined a new term. Bills and my favorite topic, Warner Brothers rebuffs. Paramount, again, no surprise.

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33:41I'm back with Audie Cornish and Bill Cohen. Warner Brothers Discovery has rejected Paramount's latest buyout offer, urging its shareholders to stick with Netflix. Warner Brothers said Paramount's bid was not superior to the$72 billion Netflix offer for its studios and streaming businesses. The board also flagged the uncertainly risk around Paramount's offer, saying it would effectively be a leveraged buyout, the largest in history. This comes after Larry Ellison stepped in to personally backstop Paramount's offer with a$40 billion equity guarantee. And just a little while ago, Paramount reaffirmed its$30 share all-cash offer for Warner Brothers.

34:14No more, Bill. You've done a lot of reporting on this. And let me just add in how Versant also, Versant is what I like to call it, like croissant, factors in all of this. Comcast completed a spinoff of Versant this week, which includes MSNOW, CNBC, and other networks. Versant shares closed down 13 % on their first day and now down 29 % for the week, although that is index funds repurposing themselves, according to many investors. And I think that's correct. All while Paramount has been arguing that Warner's cable channels stub are worth around a dollar a share. Let's talk a little bit about this.

34:47Now, Audi works for CNN. Yeah, that's my disclaimer. WBD is the parent company. Is the parent company. I am a contributor to them, but I will be leaving if Paramount gets it. So I don't and I don't give a fuck. So I'm going to a lot of you may weigh in as you want. I am. No, I am literally here to learn on this front. OK. All right. OK, Bill, why don't you walk us through this and what happens next? Sure. Well, the key point of what just happened was this idea that the Paramount offer at thirty dollars a share is deemed by the board of WBD not to be, quote, superior at this time. OK, because if they did deem it to be superior, whatever that means, that's a sort of a vague term, which comes a lot of judgment comes into that.

35:32If they did deem it to be superior, they could break their merger agreement with Netflix and turn their attention to the Paramount deal. They would owe Netflix a breakup fee of two point eight billion dollars. And then, you know, we'd have the bidding war would begin again. So they they did what you would expect them to do, which was say, why are we going to You know, we've got this merger agreement with Netflix. We're happy with it. We think it's worth more. And there's no reason at this moment to change that recommendation. That doesn't mean that they, if Paramount were to raise its bid, as it sort of indicated that it might do because it said it wasn't, hadn't made its best and final offer, but yet it hasn't done anything beyond$30 yet, that they wouldn't change that recommendation and open up the bidding war again.

36:19They did note they would listen. One of the board members noted that on CNBC. Like, if they want to lob another number over, we're happy to take it. Well, they are in what is called Revlon mode now of selling. They have to sell the company to the highest bidder. They are required, you know, by Delaware law essentially to do that. And that's why they're constantly reevaluating these two bids. And once again, they've I mean, there's no difference between this, you know, the December 4th final bid that Paramount made of$30 a share hasn't changed in a month. So if if they want to upset the Apple card here, they are going to have to raise their bid now.

36:58They may not want to. You also had noted these fees of that Paramount wants more control over certain loans. And there's a lot of money there, correct? Yes, Warner Brothers is concerned about the way that Paramount would let them operate their own company between signing and closing. And since it's like an 18-month process, generally to get this kind of a deal, regulators approval, both in the EU and here, to get it closed, they need to know that they can operate their business in the normal course. and Paramount put several covenants into their proposed merger agreement that would limit the flexibility that Warner Brothers has during that period.

37:41And Warner Brothers believes that that would cost them. Which Netflix has said, no problem. Netflix has said, you know, do what you want, which is another reason that they're gone with the Netflix deal. Netflix also said, you know, if you don't take our deal, we're going to walk away, which, you know, put a little gun to their head. And so they, you know, they went with the bird in the hand. And at the time it was the better deal, it made total sense. And it still basically makes total sense. It's a real toss-up now because of the value of this global network stub. In a part of the business where Audi works, CNN, is potentially going to be spun off under the Netflix deal.

38:18And so the value of that business as a spun-off entity comes into play. Under the Paramount deal, they're buying the whole company, So that's a moot point. So, you know, that's why, you know, trying to judge the value of the two offers. So it's what it's valued at, right? And certain people saying three to five, three, three dollars a share now. Three dollars now. The chairman of Warner Brothers Discovery Board said on CNBC, three to five dollars. Morgan Stanley says, you know, a dollar fifty. The Paramount people say a dollar forty. So there's all debt issues around. If they pull some more debt off, it could go up.

38:54if, if, if, uh, when they, there's what,$15 billion in debt? There's a moment, uh, at the moment they're talking about putting$15 billion on Audi's company. And, you know, is that too much? Is that kind of - Can you pay for that, Audi? Yeah. That's why I'm wearing a quarter zip. I couldn't afford the full zip. But it's not a vest. It's a full quarter zip. If you really want to pay down that debt, you may need to wear a vest. Yeah, exactly. So, I mean, there are a lot of kind of subtle nuances going on here, which, which really puts Paramount, you know, in a bad position, to be honest. If they really want to win, they just have to spend more of Larry's money.

39:29Larry's money. He's got to get daddy. Nepo Mogul has to get daddy to pay more. You know, when this started, did I tell you? Not as smart as you think. Like, and you said they have smart advisors. I'm like, they do. I don't think they're listening to them. I think that's part of the problem. No, they aren't. Well, because still dumb, right? And you can see that over at CBS. Very dumb what's happening there. Like, what a way to run a network right into the wall, like on the daily, essentially. We won't get into it, but they suck. So what happens next? They have to just raise the price. And then what does Netflix do?

40:03Well, they don't have to raise the price. And then there's the whole Trump thing. Let me just add one more question. There's the whole Trump thing, which they've touted their friendship with Trump. But as far as I'm concerned, he's a little busy. I don't think he's going to win. He's got limited time before the midterms. Dragging this thing out is not good for Paramount Because the closer you get to the election and if the Democrats take over, they will not get it through either. They don't they will lose that ability to control the process because Trump will be essentially, you know, left naked without clothes.

40:32Right. Essentially. He won't be able to help his friend Larry. I'm sure right now he can't help his friend Larry. I think less and less every passing day. But your thoughts. Well, everybody's now, quote unquote, Trump's friend and Larry's his friend. Ted Sarandos is his friend. Right. He's played it beautifully, I will say. But he's a big Democrat. His wife was ambassador under Obama. Not sure that matters anymore. No. I mean, he wants fealty paid to him. And if you've got a big deal that you want to get through, you're going to pay that fealty. Except I don't know if he has that power as much as everybody.

41:11I don't think he will rush to Larry's aid. He loves to get involved in this, Cara. Yeah. He's busy with other things now. He's got Greenland. No, I'm telling you. He's our most healthy president ever. There's no time. There's no time. I hope you're right. We shouldn't be involved in this. All right. So far, I've been right about all of this. So as I said to Scott Altair, what happens next? Is that going to be the title of your memoir? Yes, yes, I'm right. Look, what happens next is that their tender offer is open until January 21st, and they're going to, between now and then, go around. Their hostile tender offer that Paramount has made, They're going to go around to the big shareholders.

41:49And you noted it was only a small amount. It was only like a point. Well, so far, but that's understandable because there are a lot of conditions to this deal that are kind of like the tender offer can't happen unless they have a merger agreement with Warner Brothers. Well, they're not going to get a merger agreement with Warner Brothers unless there's a superior offer. So, you know, basically people aren't going to tender, but they are going to go until maybe the last minute at most, at best. But they are going to go around and make this case that their$30 a share all cash deal is superior to Netflix because of this business of the Audis company not being worth this$3 to$5 a share or whatever it's worth.

42:29Which is kind of technical and confusing to most people, right? It is, but this is the kind of thing that these guys get into the weeds about. And so what is your, what's the next? Raising the price is the only thing to do, right? Raising the price to around$34 a share is the only way for Paramount to win this thing. Otherwise, it's going to Netflix. What about the Saudis? What about the, there's also. It's Larry's, another$10 billion for Larry. And? It's, you know, a dollar a share is$2.5 billion. Will they? Because it's already non-economic bill. This thing is already so ridiculously non-economic.

42:59They've decided that they have to have it. They've made seven bids. I suspect they're going to do it. I suspect they will raise their offer to 34 and they will win. I hate to, you know, I think they will end up winning, but I, you know, it could be wrong. I mean, there's no way without raising this bid that Warner Brothers is going to change its recommendation. Not going to happen. I don't know about that, but I think if they do win, they're not going to get it through. That's too much. The time is too short. And by that time, it will be the Democrats calling for blood and then it will be. Well, there's also a risk that Netflix won't get their deal done either.

43:36Yes, but less. I mean, that's fine, but it's not the same thing, right? It's not like this. I'm the best. Their whole argument has been I'm the best friend of. Well, right. And it's a stupid argument. Well, it's so transactional. You know, what is Larry? What have you done for me this week? Did you donate to my ballroom this week or not? Did you have you made. But then Ted could do the same thing. A lot of the stuff Larry can do, Ted can do. Comcast did it, which was quite surprising. But, you know, everybody is paying fealty now, Kara. So, Audie, any thoughts? I know that coming from NPR and coming from like nonprofit, like, oh, what are we going to do?

44:16The politics will change that I was not fully prepared for like corporate media. And it has been an education, like for sure. It's been an education. I think one of the hundreds of thousands of reasons for me not to comment on this is kind of for the thing you guys are saying, which is like we're in the realm of like personalities and regulation and the government. And so it's not the same as sitting around talking about a business deal or even a hostile takeover. It's kind of something else. And if you notice people not speaking up, I mean, A, we can't, right, because we're in the middle of a regulatory issue.

44:58But B, to say it's above our pay grade is an understatement. Right. That's a fair point. That's a fair point. But by the way, over at NPR, they said, fuck you, government, and they're doing great just fine. I had breakfast with NPR hosts this morning, and he was like, we don't even want to talk about it. Also, but the thing is, they've moved on and they're doing rather well under Kathleen Mayer. It was always, like I said, it was always haunting us there. But now it doesn't. Now they're like free. It's like now you got to just compete in the marketplace. But lucky for them, they do fundamentally have a brand people trust.

45:27Yeah. Yeah. But I think the way to go is fuck you. For a president to be sticking his fingers into an individual deal, you know, is not normal. There are agencies that are supposed to be at arm's length that deal with these issues. And that's the way it has worked. But this president likes to get his fingers. You know, I have people often, often, let me let me end on this. I have a lot of people like always go a couple of years ago would be like, can you believe he did this? And I was like, I do. I believe it. He's done it seven times before. Let me tell you, he's he does it. See Greenland. See Venezuela.

46:05That's why, Kara, he does have time for this. He makes time for this kind of crazy shit. I don't think so. All right. Well, I think I just I just this. I think they have taken far too long for this. They could have done the 34. I hope you are right. If they were smarter. But we'll see. We'll see. And by the way, and if they don't do it, he is holding a very expensive leaky. Larry has bought himself an expensive leaky yacht that he is going to not know how to unload because there's no way around. It's too small. But without doing this, it's only a$6 billion equity bet for him. So if he loses$6 billion.

46:40But I'm saying he's just a. Yeah, no. No, that's why they're serious about trying to do it. Because they know that they're at a strategic disadvantage without it. Yeah, and even with it, still a hobbit. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, Grok hits despicable new lows, even for the ever despicable Elon Musk.

47:07Oh, we're back with another headline. Elon Musk's AI chatbot Grok is facing criticism from governments around the world as it continues to create sexualized images of women and children. Grok Imagine, an AI image generator includes a spicy mode that can generate adult content. Meanwhile, Musk's ex-AI says it raised$20 billion in funding around exceeding the target of$15 billion, including from Fidelity. Just today, they're making filthy images of the woman who was killed in Minneapolis. The European countries are losing their minds. You haven't heard word one from Sundar Pichai at Google or Tim Cook at Apple, who would have should have been to see Sam is supposed to be against the law.

47:48So you two, you're you're you're you're you're soiling yourselves in public by not doing anything about this. That's my point of view. But why this funding round suggests investors don't care about these issues? I'd love each of you weigh in. Bill, you first on on what's happening here. Well, as a great American once said, Kara, X is a Nazi porn bar. And so that's me. Yes, it was. Thank you. And it certainly is. It certainly is. And this is just another example of it. But look, from a business point of view, XAI and the merger between XAI and X saved X, right? It saved Fidelity's investment in X as well as Larry Ellison's and Mark Andreessen's and other friends of Elon's, so I guess, and the banks who are about sitting on$13 billion of loans that they might lose a lot of money on.

48:48So that merger saved the X deal, which, you know, got to give, I guess, Elon credit for devising and conceptualizing that. And now he's raising$20 billion at a, what,$350 billion valuation or whatever it is. I mean, you know, I guess from a purely business point of view, Cara, you have to admire Elon's ability to make chicken salad out of chicken shit. And you've got to admire, I guess, the fact that suddenly he's now worth, you know,$700 billion because of SpaceX, et cetera, going public. I mean, so the guy knows how to make money for himself, a trillion dollar pay package out of Tesla. His old pay package was reinstated by the courts.

49:39I mean, so, all right, on one level, you have to kind of admire that if you're an American who believes in sort of Darwinian capitalism. On the other hand, you know, you expect Elon Musk, and you know this better than anyone, to eliminate these images and go whole hog on trying to reduce the Nazi porn bar aspect of what he's created here. So why haven't this is C-SAMP? This is this is porn of children. Like, I think he would utterly allow porn of women. I think he's he's a misogynist. So that's sort of that's water under the bridge for him, so to speak. But with children, this is something that usually sets off a firestorm, a problem.

50:20Any reason why they're like fine with C-SAMP? Sam? I mean, again, does Elon Musk like to do the right thing when it comes to these things, or does he just like to claim it's free speech and, you know, whatever, let it ride? I mean, you know, he reinstated Trump, you know. I wouldn't lose sleep or hold my breath thinking that Elon Musk is going to do the right thing here, but, you know, he might do that one simple basic thing that is so obvious that has to be done, meanwhile, leaving the rest of the Nazi porn bar to thrive. So, yeah. Audie, thoughts? I'm curious about the people who, you know, like the first lady or Ted Cruz, who were so touting the take it down act, you know, which was supposed to allow people a chance to take down non-consensual images, sexualized images.

51:20And Marsha Blackmer. Marsha Bly, yeah, again, it's one of those moments where you're like, do you actually care about this or do you not care about this? The other thing I think about is there's this weird collision course between the very moneyed aspect of AI and that culture, which says onward, no matter what, and a pretty broad base, not quite a moral panic yet, but very much something brewing among parents and in school systems where they're like, ban phones and we're Australia. We're saying kids can't even be on there. We're on a collision course. And sometimes it feels like the industry, their plan is just to outrace us.

51:57Build all the data centers you can. Make this thing, make your born bought quickly. Just do it all while Trump is OK with it. And then people can't really stop you. Yeah, that is their policy for everything, by the way. Yeah. Like Amazon and taxes, Google and stealing. But it's not 1995. Nobody is looking at the industry and being like, well, they do have our interest at heart and they might cure cancer. No one is saying that. Everybody is just like, I want to throw my phone out the window. I hate this. I'm not on socials anymore. I'm a teen in a Luddite club. Like, the backlash is real. And I'm very curious about going forward if that turns into a political action, so to speak.

52:39Is there a candidate who represents that? I will speak to that. I think the CSAM stuff is going to kill them. They're going to there. This is not this is not a this is where it stops. And you've noticed that Google settled with the parents of character AI. I don't know what the settlement is. And I did interview that mother and I've interviewed. I'm I'm I'm I've been interviewing a lot of these parents because it's a big issue since 2023. I've been doing it. And but at a certain point, it won't be settlements. Right. It'll be, you know what, maybe we're going to have this conversation with the public in public.

53:12I'm not sure why she. No, I'm not. This is in no way judging the decision of parents. But I'm saying, like, this is how movements start. I think the reason Google settled is because they are not protected under Section 230 on this one. And their arguments were not. Ultimately, if this stuff gets out, it's very ugly for them. And I wish one of the parents would just say, you know what, I'm going to just take you to court. It's just expensive for them. It's exhausting their child to commit suicide. But the same thing with these imagery that it does. I think there is a group of people that will not settle and they will try everything to settle because so much of this stuff is so heinous.

53:50and also what you once you what what I had is one of the parents read the dialogue and when any parent hears it you're like put those people in jail and so to me they're headed for a perp walk is what I feel like if they're in this in this issue and it's well beyond what Australia is doing but they're going to get a backlash like you've absolutely never seen right yeah so where does that affect at one point in Elon Musk you know what I mean like that's what I'm curious about I don't think he is. Do you think it's because it just becomes the gutter? Like this is the red light district of the Internet.

54:24He runs it. And and because a lot of you know, if you've noticed, the Internet is becoming less and less useful and people aren't using it. the AI slop there, it's really becoming less and less useful. And so the promise was this would be more useful. And a lot of AI absolutely is. I just think there's no business in child porn. There's no business from now until 200 years from now. Why aren't this should be an issue for federal regulation, right? Absolutely. But you'll never get the Trump administration to do the right thing. They preferred to do the wrong thing purposefully to, you know, own the libs, so to speak.

55:02But is it just the Trump administration? I mean, Kara, I feel like you and I have talked so many times about 230 and how lawmakers are just very reluctant to step on the toes of industry. When this happened, when I started interviewing these parents back in 2024, I called 10 legislators. I'm like, can you please fucking listen to this and do something about it? And they're like, oh, I hadn't heard of it. Like, And I was like, get on it. Like, get the fuck on this. Like, I can't do anything. And I think, you know, and then unfortunately, the people that get on it are sort of have, you know, they're trying to kill a fly with an anvil.

55:37Right. Like, there's a way to do this. This is illegal. There are already laws in place about these things. Yeah, but they don't really understand the technology, frankly. I would prosecute XAI. That's what I would just like time to. If there was a very ambitious prosecutor out there, I don't care if it's conservative or liberal. You're going to prosecute the$700 billion man? Yes. Yes. For child porn. For Trump administration? No. I'm dual state. I do. One of the big states. You know, just like in order to have people talking about it, right? Because he's the one I would go for because he's the biggest and the most villainous.

56:10He's the most villainous. Anyway, we'll see what happens here. But let me just say, I'm going to look, it's mostly Elon Musk's fault because he doesn't give a fuck. Obviously, he brought back Andrew Tate and others who are just heinous creatures. But ultimately, Sundar Pichai and Tim Cook, you're soiling yourself in public by letting this continue. When you say by letting, you mean not speaking out, not coming out with counter technology? The app stores. The app stores. They took down a lot of that January 6th stuff pretty quickly when I did that one interview with the guy from whatever that site that was used for planning.

56:46They've acted before on the app store, but this is child porn and you own this, both of you. I'm sorry. Anyway, they're in a position to stop it, like at least speak out against it or temporarily stop it and get him to do something about it. Anyway, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

57:12Okay, Audie and Bill, let's hear some predictions. I will go last. You will go? I shall go last. Who wants to go first? That's not fair. Okay, I'll go first. I have two predictions, Kara. One is that I do think AI valuations are going to return to Earth in 2026, the latter half of 2026. Not that AI isn't a valuable tool, like the internet is a valuable tool, but just like with internet 1.0, you slap.com at the end, a company going public, and it's suddenly everybody falls over themselves to invest. That's where we are now with AI. It's ridiculous and it will come down to earth and a lot of people will lose a lot of money, which is always, I think, justice to some extent.

58:02Not that AI won't be incredibly valuable tool as it already is proving to be and will become more so in the future. And the second prediction is one of my favorites, which is that Hakeem Jeffries will be a year from now the Speaker of the House. If not sooner. Yeah. More and more people are talking like that, frankly. Yeah. Sooner the better as far as I'm concerned. All right. Audie. I would say that this is maybe more a wish. I predict there will be a movement of human verified social media apps that someone is going to find a way to tap into the market of people who want to avoid AI slop and imagery.

58:44And I was thinking of this when I saw Adam Masseri of Instagram do this big carousel little essay where he was basically saying, like, Instagram as we know it is going to be pretty much dead under this scenario. And here are the things you need to think about. And the first thing I thought is there's going to be someone who makes an app that somehow is human verifiable and that people are really going to want that. Yeah. Yeah. Or else get off. I mean, there's a trend among young people of getting off completely. Because as you said, if it's not useful, then you just you can't find your way to it in the day.

59:17TikTok is useful for people right now because it's TV to them. They are being entertained by this thing on a loop. But if they're no longer entertained because what they're seeing is an algorithm owned by, you know, the government's friends or just AI slop. And by slop, I mean everything that is just generated for generating sake. Like, why? If you're 14, 15, why? Right, interestingly, the head of Roku, who's a really smart guy, Anthony Wood, founder and CEO, did say that he thought there was going to be an AI movie hit, AI-generated movie hit. He's always talked about the back end, and I think he's completely right.

59:56When I interviewed the head of Runway, same thing. There's a lot of back-end deficiencies about to be imposed upon Hollywood that will be helpful for their business. but when it moves into content, it's a really different thing. And one of the things the Runway CEO suggested is that instead of labeling AI, we label real. Yes. Because it's smaller. Very much so. So this is like organic. That's my prediction as well. So you're telling me the wind is at my back. This is possible. Wind is at your back. I know nothing about business, but I'm ready. I like it. All right, I will do this. I think time is running out for Trump and I think he's much sicker than people realize.

1:00:34Oh, this is a health prediction. I thought this was a political prediction. It's both health and everything. He's not going to get all this stuff done. There's too much stuff happening and not enough lackeys. I know it sounds crazy, but even the lackeys are probably lacking at this point. And so when I saw that Susie Wiles interview, I'm like, the rats, they're getting ready. As I told Scott, I'm meeting with Trump people a lot, and they all are asking for pardons. They're all getting ready for the inevitable. Right. Right. They're getting ready for those for them. But that's different from saying there's no after because he plans to stay.

1:01:10Like, I hear you making a prediction that I'm not going to. I'm going to. Yeah. As Scott says, biology is undefeated and nobody, you know, I'm not sure who's less charming, Don Jr. or J.D. Vance. But as I as I said about Vance, he's the cyber truck of politicians. But one of the. It took me. Yeah. You're like, of course. Yes. Correct. Yes, but that's why I talk about the ballroom. I think it is. There's also some legal stuff happening to slow it down quite a bit. Everything that gets slowed down is a problem, whether it's the Paramount deal, whether it's the ballroom. And I think, by the way, FYI, they do need a ballroom at the White House.

1:01:50Having covered it, there's nowhere to there. as odd as it seems. It's always a bunch of tents when they have something. It's a bunch of tents and there's small rooms. They really are people. And the offices are small. It's really quite fun to go there. But at the same time, you're like, what a shitty office this is. And so there needs to be some renovation. Just the way it was done was, of course, awful. But I don't think you're going to get the huge ballroom. I don't think he's going to get what he wants. And I think the gold leaf is going to come down and that and they will have it they will have a decent better side to it and that's okay um but that the big one isn't going to happen i'm i'm sorry to say he's not going to get his trump uh triumph triumphal arch arch either so is he gonna get his face on mount rushmore or on the coin i don't care do you care the coins might happen he can have the coins I don't care.

1:02:42Like at a certain point, you're like, yeah, give him a coin. Why not? Like Mount Rushmore. I don't care. I don't care. And none of us mentioned the 250 year anniversary. I mean, we are about to see. I think propaganda is actually the the safest word to use definitionally here. Kara, I'll defer to you because that's your area of expertise. Because it's going to be the country's birthday in his frame. That's right. Just completely in the context of him. Which is well done stakes and Bobby Vance. Well, it's a UFC octagon. It's whatever. I mean, just something that could be very sort of academic and a little sleepy and history nerd in another year.

1:03:30is going to be something else. Yeah, I just think, I don't care. Go ahead. Go for it, old man. It's your last hurrah. Go for it. I don't give up. I'm not going to get mad about those things. Anyway, so we'll see about that. But it's time. TikTok, as they say. Anyway, I really appreciate it. But let me just read this. We want to hear from you. Send us your questions about business. If you don't agree with me or Bill or Audie or whatever's on your mind, go to nymag.com slash pivot. Send a question for the show or comment or call 855-51-PIVOT. Again, that is the show. thank you so much. Audie and Bill came on at the last minute, and I really appreciate it.

1:04:04It was incredibly substantive and really helpful for people because right now the news— Bill, total honor to meet you this way. This is so cool. Thank you, Cara. You had a great job together, too. You had a lot of nice reports, the two of you. Anyway, and the thing is, the last show was Brooke Hammerling, Stephanie Rule, and Don Lemon, and all they talked about was, speaking of gay porn, heated rivalry. So this was a little different. Oh, my God. All right. Well, ask me back to this show. I don't want to have to like harm Scott every time I want to come back. Don't you worry. Absolutely. Both of you have been valued contributors to a lot of my podcasts, and I really appreciate it.

1:04:39So please watch, listen to and read all the amazing work they're doing at CNN and Puck. Audie has the morning show. Bill has a must, must read column that is so helpful to me in understanding these things. Anyway, thanks for listening to Pivot. And be sure to like and subscribe to our YouTube channel. I'm just doing rather well, I have to say. We'll be back next week, and I will read us out. Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Enderdot engineered this episode. Manolo Moreno edited this video. Nishat Kerwa is Vox Media's executive producer of podcasts.

1:05:15Make sure to follow Pivot on your favorite podcast platform. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. it. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Scott, come home.