We buy a lot of Christmas trees (Update)

0:00Support comes from our 2025 lead sponsor of Planet Money, Amazon Ads. Less than half of customers fully trust their financial institutions. Amazon Ads helps financial brands build that trust through relevant ads using first-party signals to reach the right customers. More at advertising.amazon.com. This is Planet Money from NPR. Happy holidays, everybody. It is that time of year again, and if you're still hoping to nab a Christmas tree, well, best of luck, I guess. Coming up, we have a Planet Money Christmas tale, in which Robert Smith and Nick Fountain get to the root of what is happening in the Christmas tree market.

0:48This episode originally aired in 2020. Stay tuned for an update at the very end. Here's the episode. Christmas tree! Christmas trees. Hey, Christmas tree here. Planet Money Christmas tree. The day after Thanksgiving, Nick, you and I participated in a grand American tradition, trying to make a buck off a religious holiday. You guys need a Christmas tree? We're good, thanks. Christmas trees. Look at that beauty right there. Planet Money Christmas trees. We had a pickup truck filled with Christmas trees, a few signs on a corner in a fancy Brooklyn neighborhood, and we were ready to make some cash.

1:27How much does a six to seven foot Christmas tree go for these years? We're asking for$150. And people are actually paying$150. No, no, they are not. Not a single person. That's why we still have a truck full of trees. So are you trying to dupe people into buying too expensive Christmas trees? Is that what's going on? I don't think it's duping. It's seeing what the market will bear. Okay, and the market so far has borne nothing. He was right. We were striking out. What was it? Were our prices too high? Was our sales pitch off? Maybe people couldn't see our fancy podcast microphones. I think we got a customer.

2:09We're curious if this is a tree sale or if it's a news program. It is both. Whoa! I know. It's kind of crazy. Amanda and Leo Sidren and some extended family were headed to the park when they saw our sign. It was just a matter of reeling them in. Are you interested in a tree? Yes, we are interested in a tree. Excellent. We were just discussing how much to charge for them because we have a little... I overheard you say that you think they might be worth$150. Before we put a price on this tree, would you like to hear the story of the tree? Of course. Excellent. Picture, if you will, a farm in the middle of Pennsylvania.

2:52Rolling hills. There are cows. There's a beautiful little barn off in the distance. And you're thinking, oh, is this where they grow the Christmas trees? But no. This is where they auction the Christmas trees. Alright, ready? Three, two...

3:11Crossfade with walking sounds. Footsteps in a field. One week ago.

3:22All right. Good morning, Mifflinburg. Woo! Beautiful, beautiful day. Sunrise, 38 degrees. Gonna be warm today, not very Christmassy. Hello and welcome to Planet Money. I'm Robert Smith. And I'm Nick Fountain. And we are in Mifflinburg, Pennsylvania. You know, every time I've had a Christmas tree, I somehow pictured it cut down from a snowy forest by a burly lumberjack and it magically appearing on my street corner. But really, there are a bunch of weird, fascinating steps in between that determine exactly how many Christmas trees get sold and how expensive they are. Today on the show, we visit the world's largest auction of Christmas trees, where the yuletide dreams of boys and girls meet the hard reality of supply and demand.

4:13We have$1 ,000 in cash. We have a pickup truck. Anything can happen. Thank you.

4:48at key decision moments, whether they're planning retirement, buying a home, or managing debt. Using rich first-party insights, Amazon Ads connects brands with the right audiences where they browse, buy, and stream. Learn more at advertising.amazon.com. This message comes from Capital One. Say hello to stress-free subscription management. Easily track, block, or cancel recurring charges right from the Capital One mobile app. Simple as that. Learn more at CapitalOne.com slash subscriptions. Terms and conditions apply. Let's just take a moment. That is a lot of trees. It's amazing. The Buffalo Valley Auction Center is a big warehouse plopped down in the middle of prime Pennsylvania farmland.

5:39The Christmas trees are stacked like firewood in this big quarter-mile circle around the building. As far as the eye can see. It looks like an evergreen wall surrounding the property, like it's a medieval castle. Each of the trees is wrapped in twine and piled in mounds the size of a truck. And in front of each mound is a single tree that's unwrapped so you can smell the needles or count the rings or kick the stump, whatever people do here. Good morning. Hey, we're looking for the office for the Courtney's. There are 45 ,000 Christmas trees here. So many that the auction doesn't take place inside the building.

6:15Oh, we have topiary over here. No, the auctioneer is going to move from tree pile to tree pile on the back of a pickup truck. And we hear that auctioneer before we spot him. Neil Courtney is getting ready to haul himself into the back of the auction pickup truck. There's a tiny stool for him in the back. The auction starts in 10 minutes, so we're already talking fast. How long have you done this? I've been on the tree truck 30 years. What's the deal with the little stool? The little stool is where I sit. That is a tiny little stool, and you are not a tiny little man. It'll be all right. You have a sense of balance on the back of the truck?

6:49I do. Have you ever fallen off? No, the chair is screwed fast. Gotcha. Neil says this big Christmas tree auction started as a way to make his professional life just a little bit easier. 30 years ago, he was a traveling auctioneer. Farmers would bring him out to their farm to auction off, well, anything they had to sell. And eventually Neil and a bunch of farmers thought, why not build an auction center and cut out all that driving? Centralized location. Yeah, what if everyone comes to me? And they did it. People said no one will cut trees and bring them. They cut trees and brought them. 30 years ago, Neil sold$3 ,000 worth of Christmas trees here.

7:27Today, he's hoping he's going to auction off$1.3 million worth of needles and branches. But to hit that huge number, everything will have to go perfectly. And Neil has this theory that this year will be the hottest auction in the last 30 years. He can just feel it. With everyone stuck at home during a pandemic, he thinks people are desperate for something cheerful. And Christmas is going to be huge. Christmas is going to be huge. You think people will get more trees, more boughs, more holly? They're going to make Christmas Christmas. Yeah. If this is indeed a banner year for Christmas trees, the market will sense it here first.

8:06This is definitely the largest tree for all in the nation. Tree for all. Hundreds of buyers and sellers come together in one spot. The farmers truck in conifers from across Pennsylvania and as far away as Canada and North Carolina. Little trees for apartments that were planted only a few years ago. Big 18-footers for apartment building lobbies. Those take over a decade to grow. And it's not just your classic Fraser furs. We got Frasers, we got Douglas, we got Turkish fir, we got Cananes, we got Concolors, we got Blue Spruce. Serbians Nordmans lots of different varieties. I've never heard of most of those varieties.

8:48Well you're going to hear the Douglas and the Fraser, the two you hear the rest are exotics and that's our... We suddenly hear a loudspeaker calling for the start of the auction. I guess that means I've got to get to work. Check, check. Oh, that's hot. Neil climbs up into the bed of the pickup and onto the little stool. And the truck drives off along a dirt path towards tree pile number one. Good luck with the driving. I don't know where all the buyers were hiding, but as the truck moves into position, a crowd starts to assemble. Maybe a hundred guys, and they're mostly guys, in hoodies and car hearts.

9:25They work at garden centers, hardware stores. Some are just planning to set up in a vacant corner lot. And they're all here looking for a good deal. Yes, sir. My name's Robert Smith. I position myself next to a man who looks like he spends a lot of time outside. My name is Kerry Knowles. And where do you work? What do you do? Alexandria, Virginia, in the farm market business. That's right outside of Washington, D.C. Kerry has this brick red baseball cap. It's the only one in the crowd. Maybe it's just fashion. Maybe it's some sort of auction trick to get the best deal. That's unclear. But what is clear is that everyone will need some sort of edge today.

10:01This is going to be a day like nobody's ever seen. How many do you need? Don't need any, but if the right stuff's there, the right money, it could be$1 ,000, could be$2 ,000. Check, check. Neil, the auctioneer, is ready. Just about showtime. His mic is hot. All right, ladies and gentlemen, here we go. We're going to give you the terms and conditions for today's auction. Ladies and gentlemen, your eyes are your guide. Your checkbook talks. When I say sold, it's yours. Okay? Neil runs through a few more rules, and then... Ladies and gentlemen, let's get this show off the ground. You're on, Harvey.

10:32We're going to start here. You're set. You bet. 512-foot con caller. 512-foot con caller. What are you going to give? What are you going to give? $200 a go. Did he just say$200 a treat? That's just the first number out of his mouth. It's meant to prime the pump, to anchor expectations. Watch, watch. He's going to quickly drop the price.

10:59Sold for$95 a treat. And you can feel a chill go through the crowd. That's about$15 more than last year. Neil was right. This is going to be a hot year for Christmas trees. A lot of the buyers aren't even bidding yet. Linfama has a garden center in New Jersey. The prices are a little high right now. We're going to wait. Well, I hear if you wait, you might have to pay even more. Then we'll be going home with nothing. After each sale, the auction truck starts up, moves about seven feet down the road, stops in front of the next pile, and the auction starts all over again. Neil can auction off a pile of 50 trees in 30 seconds flat.

11:39Kerry with the red hat has been right in the middle of the bidding. I've come to check in. What's it looking like this year? It'd be a good year to be a tree farmer and have trees here to sell. They're bringing big money for them. So that means a bad year to be in the retail business? Well, you just got to adjust your figures a little bit.

12:01There's not enough to go around for everybody, so you got to get in there and get them. Kerry is already lowering his standards. The very best trees here are graded number one. Kerry was desperate in buying number two grade trees. These are trees that are, you know, misshapen or have a big bald spot on the back. I bought a misfit. You bought a misfit? Yeah, a misfit. Gotta give them a home, too. Everybody's watched Charlie Brown at Christmas. Washington, D.C., you're getting misfits this year. Good misfits. Check back with me in a little bit. You know, there's something Kerry said that stuck with me.

12:37There are not enough trees to go around, which seems incredible with 45 ,000 trees here. But there's clearly something unusual going on this year beyond just the increased demand during a pandemic. If there's a supply problem, we need to go to the source, to the growers. And it wasn't hard to find them. They were the folks hanging out in the back of the pack with huge smiles on their faces as prices went up and up. These prices are amazing. Even for the misfit trees. My name is Byron Mitchell and this is my wife. Holly Mitchell. And where's your farm? Where do you grow? Gaines, Galton, Pennsylvania area.

13:14The Mitchells have about 250 acres of trees, which sounds like a lot. But Byron says, in fact, this year, all across the nation, we are experiencing a critical shortage of Christmas trees. Not because of COVID, but because of the way Christmas trees are grown. Remember how we said that it takes about a decade to grow a decent-sized Christmas tree? The seedlings of this year's shortage were planted 10 years ago. They were planted during the Great Recession. Now, I didn't know about this because at the time I was covering, you know, banks going under. But during those years, the tree farming business also collapsed.

13:53Remember how no one was buying real estate and there were all those new homes that were, you know, either vacant or foreclosed upon? Well, no one was buying evergreen trees for landscaping. And the farmers who grow those trees, they'd lost this huge revenue stream. And so in desperation, they started to cut the landscaping trees to sell as Christmas trees. That Christmas during the recession, trees flooded the market. Byron remembers the prices plunging. Trees that might usually sell for$24. Here at the auction,$7 a piece. We were losing money. It was just cash flow to keep the business running.

14:31The price for trees was so low that during the worst year, 2013, farmers started to give up entirely. They didn't even bother cutting the trees down and shipping them to market. We had fields of trees, literally thousands and thousands. We probably lost somewhere in the realm of 75 ,000 to 100 ,000 trees that we just let grow because we couldn't afford to maintain them any longer. People stopped planting new trees. A lot of tree farms went out of business. Byron estimates half of his fellow tree farmers gave up. The Mitchells only survived because a gas company came in to lease some of their land for fracking.

15:08And that's why there are so few farmers here. So few trees up for auction this year. All these years later, these trees that we see today are the miraculous survivors of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. And to the survivors, go the riches. It gives us hope for the future, the prices that we're seeing today, that we're going to be able to continue. And in the springtime, we'll be able to plant seedlings. So that way, in 10 years, we'll have more trees to keep going. A nationwide shortage of trees. You know, when I heard that, I got that feeling. That feeling you get when you're shopping online and you see a little pop-up that says, only three items left at this price.

15:50And you start clicking because you lose all your rational thought because you just have to buy it now. You thinking what I'm thinking? We should buy a metric buttload of trees. I mean, if we can get it at a good enough price, we could totally turn a profit in New York. Everything is expensive in New York. We can't not buy them, really. It's weirdly easy to turn from being reporters to auction participants. We walk over to the auctioneer's son, Ben. We fill in a form. He doesn't ask if we know what we're doing or if we have enough money or even if we have a truck. Although we did come ready just in case.

16:26I got a thousand dollars cash in my pocket and a small pickup truck. It is the world's smallest pickup truck. No. It has a six foot bed and a lumber rack. Ben hands us an official piece of paper with our number 1099 written on it in big Sharpie. That is our bidder number. 1099 like the tax form. We plunge into the crowd gathered behind the auction truck. Starting to feel a little desperate. We got a show to fill. By this point, we kind of understand how the auction works. You do not bid on the first price you hear. That's just the teaser number. You do have to be able to do math quickly in your head.

17:05The number you hear from the auctioneer is the price per tree. But if you bid and win, Then you get the whole pile of trees. You all of a sudden own 57 Fraser firs. I spot a pile I like. 40 cute little trees that would fit in my truck and inside tiny New York apartments. And while we're trying to figure out what they're worth, Neil starts auctioning them off. Wait until the price drops. 20 bucks for this thing on that line. Just keep going down. 22 and a half. 22 and a half. Put up the auction number. I got 26. I got 26. You got 26. Oh. Oh. Oh, 26, 27. Somebody's bidding against you. I can't do it.

17:47I can't go more. No, no. Oh. Wait. 27? No, you bid 26. We missed it by a dollar. Oh. We go over to talk to the pro who beat us, Steve Kropp of Virginia. Did you just buy these? Yeah. You just beat me by a dollar. Daggone it. I thought I could get a steal, but then you just swooped in there. No, I started it. I started it. I was at 20. You went up to 26. I'm like, what are you doing? We've got to work together. Seriously, let's collude. Yeah, we've got to work together. Now, we should be jumping right back in. But Robert is just kind of wandering off, muttering, I don't know, about flaws in auction theory.

18:27So I know it's capitalism, and I know that's the way the market works, right? This is price discovery. But we don't know anything. It's true. We are complete idiots. We're complete idiots. So are those really worth$27? I mean, that guy's willing to pay it, but he had to have something. We bid it up. If we hadn't been here, would they have gone for 2021? What is the price of that tree? The price is what he paid for it, man. You know, I did remember there is a name for this in economics. It's called the winner's curse. By definition, in order to win an auction, you have to bid more than everyone else thinks the object is worth.

19:07Throw in a couple of city boys like us, and this whole efficient markets thing goes out the window. Also, it's starting to seem like there are other inefficiencies here. We spot the red hat of Kerry Knowles, the guy who sells just outside of Washington, D.C., and ask him how he's doing. Fantastic. I swear, I just kicked, yeah, it's been good. Wait a minute, you are smiling. I did not expect that early this morning. You were grim-faced. That's what makes this business so fascinating, is that it turns, just spins right out from you. Well, explain to me what happened. What'd you get? Why are you so happy?

19:38They must have all been sleeping or something. I don't know. Somebody came over there with a box of donuts, and half the buyers went over there to get them a free donut, and I just scooped them up. What did you get? How many? Just a couple piles. Piles of trees, not piles of donuts. Kerry, though, has inspired me to think creatively, to just, like, grab the moment. And I'm thinking, let's go for misfit trees. The number two trees. This is where we brand the Zoom tree. I think like, I don't think anyone's tried this yet. Hear me out here. For a lot of people, their social life now and their work life is on Zoom, right?

20:14Sure. And so you want to have a nice background that says like, oh, you know, I'm enjoying the holidays. And it doesn't matter if it's a good tree. It just has to look good on Zoom. Right, right, right. Just like nobody's wearing pants anymore. We get a skanky. We get a flawed number two tree. And then we just market Zoom trees. We add 20 bucks to it. I'm loving it. Let's do it. Then we spot him. The smallest pile of number two trees around. 1967 feet. These are hefty trees. You can sell 19 trees in New York. So we're making our stand here. Can you guys who know something about trees tell us how much these are going to go for?

20:51Nobody knows. And then it's too late. Neil in his auction truck pulls up. Which one? I make eye contact with Neil. But don't bid yet. Okay, we're at$50. Are you in? Are you in, Nick? Nick finally bids, but he's quickly outmatched. $52.50. Okay, he's doing$52. Nick bids$55 a tree, and then, I cannot believe I'm seeing this, he bids against himself. And you only get one free pass a day. $55.50. You just went past go. You bought it. Hell yeah! Yeah, we got it! Let's win! 50-yard strikes. What's the number, guys? $10.99. $10.99. The largest food media group in the country. You bought those things?

21:36Oh, no. Immediately, people start giving us a hard time about the price we paid. But you know what? We don't care. We got trees. We start throwing them in the bed of my pickup. All we have to do now is bring them back to Brooklyn and sell these 19 trees for a profit. When our show continues after... Wait, what? One second, I got a... Nick. The truck is full. Whoa, you've only put in half the trees. Yeah, we have seven trees we can't fit into Nick's tiny truck. It's a decent sized truck. But Nick, ever the hustler, approaches a bunch of guys next to us. Excuse me, sir. No, you're not going to try it.

22:13And goes into salesman. I bought them for$55. I mean... Would you take them for$55? How about$50? It's worth it to me. Okay, come on. Wait, did we just lose money already? We just lost seven times five,$35.

22:32Okay, Nick, now are we ready? You just got to tie them down. And head for the big city after the break.

22:48This message comes from Vanguard. Capturing value in the bond market is not easy. That's why Vanguard offers a suite of over 80 institutional quality bond funds, actively managed by a 200-person global team of sector specialists, analysts, and traders. They're designed for financial advisors looking to give their clients consistent results year in and year out. See the record at vanguard.com slash audio. That's vanguard.com slash audio. All investing is subject to risk. Vanguard Marketing Corporation Distributor. This message comes from Better Health. The holidays are a time of traditions, like making your grandmother's pudding recipe or watching that movie you've seen a thousand times.

23:33Incorporating therapy into your life can help you take time for yourself during what can be a joyful, but sometimes tough time of year. And by caring for yourself, you can show up more for the important moments. This December, start a new tradition by taking care of you. Visit betterhelp.com slash NPR for 10 % off. This message comes from Charles Schwab. When it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices, like full-service wealth management and advice when you need it. You can also invest on your own and trade on Think or Swim. Visit schwab.com to learn more.