1077: Noem Won't Rule Out Tear-Gassing Trick-or-Treaters

28:20Maybe they think that somehow they were going to get, because they what, they need three-fourths of state legislatures and they have, you know, they have like 50-something percent. They're not quite at 75 % yet, but I don't know. Maybe they thought they were going to flip a bunch of state legislatures. Steve Bannon is a lunatic, but he's not dumb. And if he has a secret plan, it's not amend the Constitution.

28:43Well, so I guess we get J.D. Vance. It's really, yeah, there's no... No, that's the wrong attitude, John. It's a question of who are we going to beat? Are we going to beat Donald Trump in 2020 or are we going to beat J.D. Vance? Trump? No, that's what I meant. Get J.D. Vance to write him. Get him. We're not going to receive him. We're going to get him. Like we get him as the nominee is what I was trying to say. And then we get him. Okay. Okay. Careful. You're about to get a knock on the door. Electorally. Electorally. Like maybe you remember the Get Mitch Fund? That's right. Like we got Mitch.

29:16Yeah. Yeah. We did not die trying though. There's still plenty of time. Yeah. We still might. We got him. We didn't keep him. That was the problem with Mitch. I think we should start calling him lame duck president Donald Trump. He's now conceded it himself. He's a lame duck. And once we, pretty soon, it's not going to really matter. Donald Trump admits lame duck status. Fuck, that would have been a great message box. God damn it.

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31:06All right. Speaking of clickbaity topics, let's talk about the latest with the government shutdown. We talked last episode about how November 1st is the date that the SNAP program will stop providing food assistance to 42 million low-income, mostly working Americans, mostly because the administration is falsely claiming that they can't use the program's emergency funding to keep it going, even though Trump did just that the last time he presided over a government shutdown. More than two dozen states are suing the administration to keep SNAP functioning. And on Thursday, a federal judge in Massachusetts signaled that she's likely to order the administration to use the contingency funding.

31:43But we'll see what she says and what the higher courts say. Also on November 1st, people can begin enrolling in a health insurance plan through the Affordable Care Act for next year, which, thanks to Donald Trump and the Republicans in Congress, will cost more than they have in years. Senate Majority Leader John Thune said on Wednesday that he expects to start talking to an unnamed group of Senate Democrats about ending the shutdown, quote, pretty soon. Thune said that some Democrats are, quote, looking for an off-ramp and that he told them if they open the government, he'll ensure they get a vote on health care.

32:16But alas, the Senate has since packed up and left town for the weekend. And next week, the shutdown will officially become the longest in U.S. history. First, do you believe, Thune, that some Democrats are looking for an off-ramp and are talking to him privately that they might want to? I do not believe that any Democrat, with the possible exception of John Fetterman, is talking to John Thune. Is it possible that some Democrats are looking for an off-ramp and maybe talking to other, quote-unquote, moderate Republicans, like forming a gang, as senators sometimes do in these situations? I think that is very possible, but there is no cabal of Democrats who is going around Chuck Schumer to meet with John Thune.

32:56That is not happening. Yeah, I could definitely see that. No Thune meetings, but I could see some of the – I could see like Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski talking to some moderate friends. Yeah, there's some reporting that some back-channel conversations have happened among people that seems to be something like the Collins, Murkowski, Angus King, Gene Shaheen types. People who on the Democratic side voted against the shutdown last time have been some skeptical. Angus King originally voted against him, but changed his vote this time. What does that add up to? I don't think very much at this point because the fundamental dynamics have not changed here.

33:36Democrats are demanding something that Republicans will not give them. Republicans are demanding something Democrats will not give them. And people are continuing just to stare at each other. OK, so you are in the in next week's Senate Democratic lunch meeting. And you are the you are the new senator from Delaware, as we all know you will be someday. Just pretend. And some of the some of the moderate Democrats or the Democrats who have joined this informal gang, bipartisan gang are saying it is it is time. The the SNAP benefits are running out. The airports are getting delayed. People at home are getting anxious about this.

34:16Also, it seems like it's going to be really tough, even if we extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies at this point to have that make a difference for next year's plans because people are already buying the plans. And so now the relief doesn't come till 2027. Didn't we make our point? Shouldn't we just figure out a way to save some face and call it a win here? What does Senator Pfeiffer say? Senator Pfeiffer probably points to the polling presentation we just saw, which includes private polling, like the polling presented by Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster presented, I think, today or yesterday to congressional Democrats, and the polling in The Washington Post, which shows that we are winning this fight, right?

34:58People do, they blame trump the republicans more handling of trump how trump is handling the federal government the federal budget uh his is being seen very poorly by people those numbers those disapproval numbers are going up we are winning the fight and we there is no reason that we should fold right now when is there a reason to fight at that point i think well here this is the question right like let's be like i'm no longer the senator from delaware okay i'm taking i'm new to the caucus it's fun while it lasted well i mean look i'm new to the caucus it's like maybe my first lunch I'm not going to be the one who sides with John Fetterman to try to - I'm not going to be the skunk at the garden party.

35:34Not at the beginning, no, no. But here's the question, right? Let's say the courts side and say that people are not going to get SNAP funding, right? So that millions of children are going to go hungry, right? And this is happening at a time in which food banks are stretched incredibly thin because the economy sucks and things are too expensive. And so there's limited supplies to help the people, like children, who will not eat. I don't know the right answer. Like Republicans are never going to care. Right. This is always the hard part. And this is always the hard part in debt ceiling negotiators and everything else is they do not give a shit if these children go hungry.

36:10They would rather children go hungry than be forced to lower premiums for American people. Like that is their position. And so what if if people are not going to get lower premiums next year, how long do you stay in this fight? Right. Yeah. for what is essentially a symbolic victory of a vote. I don't know the answer to that. And what is hard here is the dynamics are such that no one is feeling political pressure, not the Democrats, not the Republicans. Both sides think they're winning. I think the Democrats are right, the Republicans are wrong. But politics is so polarized that really, and there aren't a lot of people who are, the House is out.

36:45There are a lot of incumbent senators who are up, who are feeling pressure here, either Democrats or Republicans. It's just like what, And politics is so fucked up now that the shutdown is the most normal thing happening. So it's not the dominant story, right? Like in every other shutdown, what brings it to an end is it is the A, number one story in the country. Business leaders, the press, everyone puts pressure on the side, which is always to this point being Republicans, and says, give in because you are fucking everything up. That moment is never coming in this media environment. Like we could just be like this for a very long time.

37:19And all of a sudden, so in a couple of weeks, we start hearing these stories of people who are trying to stretch the money left on their EBT cards from last month to pay for food for a month. Are Republicans going to react to that? Probably not. So I legitimately do not know what the end game here is, particularly if you cannot actually get people lower premiums for this upcoming year. yeah this is this was i think way back when we were talking about the different options for this i think i said that i would rather them but democrats choose not to engage in a shutdown fight than to engage in one that they give up on about a month in when they said like because it's just it's like if you and you you said this a million times before we um got into the shutdown which is like, if you don't know the end game, if you don't know how you're going to get out of it, how are you going to get into the shutdown?

38:12Well, they had an end game. They have not achieved it. Right. Well, I guess they still do. I mean, they could still, they're still looking to get the subsidies extended, right? Yeah, I mean, you can keep fighting for that. I mean, for sure. I think a lot of the pain points have been avoided to this point. Like the troops are being paid by like slush funds and billionaires. um wick you know snap and wick funding stopping would be that's a real pain point you know ironically enough i guess there were ground stops all day at uh rakey and airport in dc because why is it trying to go home uh because the air traffic control there was air traffic controller shortage i don't i i honestly don't know what the next step is here we just like because we can stare each other for another year in this exact position yeah and they just i mean it is I just don't know what it says that Republicans have the higher tolerance for pain because they don't give a shit about people.

39:07And if they know that, then they will always have the upper hand in these fights and that these fights are pointless unless we're willing to say it is fucking horrendous that the administration is causing kids to starve. And if Republicans want to end it, they are free to open up the government tomorrow. They can just change the Senate rules, change the filibuster, made an exception for judges, made an exception for all kinds of other things. Why don't you go ahead and if you if there's there's there's one party that can easily end this by just one little one little vote. And I guess two votes, one vote to change the rules, one vote to reopen the government.

39:46You're good to go and they won't do it. Or another way to do it is to not make people's health care more expensive. That's another way to feed hungry children. When Obama won the shutdown slash debt ceiling fight over Obamacare, he basically had to say, if you want to push us over the cliff, I fucking dare you. And then I will make sure, because I'm a better communicator than you have a bigger bully pulpit, that I will make sure everyone knows you're the ones who did this. And I will win that fight. And we are winning. And like you said, in fairness, Democrats are winning that fight right now.

40:18I mean, what I think is fair is that Democrats have – they're winning the fight over who is more blamed, which I think is not the fight. Yeah, that's true. They have very successfully made this shutdown entirely about making healthcare more affordable. That is a political win. That was one of the goals. There was a question of whether they could actually do that. Are you giving healthcare to illegals with the Trump argument? They lost their argument. Democrats won the argument. It's all about are you going to extend the Obamacare tax credits? If not, why not? what they've been unable to do and this is not even really their fault per se but is they've not made politics about health care right politics about a whole bunch of other things right and and that's just this is the world we live in that's out of their control it is and so then you get into this fight where it's like okay you want to starve children we'll make sure every fucking person in america knows you're the one starving children can you win that fight you know That's the question.

41:14And is that a fight worth having given the fact that once again, if you cannot change people's programs for next year and you're going to be – you believe you will be in the majority the next time you can do this in 2027, then it's maybe a different calculus. and the and the most depressing thing is that the people who are going to be most hurt by food assistance being cut off are not the people who are going to like make a lot of noise about it and come to congress and protest and talk about it on tv and social media right and which which made me think that maybe it's the air traffic control stuff but that's what ended the last town then the ground stops right because then you you know fortunately there you have people who are just like, you know, in the media, in politics, talking a lot more, complaining a lot more, louder, bigger platforms, right?

42:01Unfortunately. So maybe that does it. But it's pretty bleak. It's pretty bleak. Do you think that one last maybe note of optimism? Dan or Senator Dan? Podcast Dan or Senator Dan? You're just Podcaster Dan in this one. If the elections, we have election day on Tuesday. If for some reason Democrats in Jersey and Virginia way outperform the polls and it's like a big margin in either state, bigger than expected, do you think that puts any more pressure on Republican members of Congress? It should. I don't think it will. Yeah. Because they're Democratic. They're states that Kamala Harris won. right if all of a sudden you know if the mississippi governor's race was this month and we won mississippi over this that could change things but this is and even they'll just find uh they'll create a rationale for why this doesn't matter yeah on the promising the vote thing the challenge with that is like you could see thune and schumer work out something where they do that in a second we'll do a vote in the in the in the senate and that probably passes in the senate the extension of ACA subsidies because you probably get enough Republicans on that.

43:13But I don't think Mike Johnson brings that up in the House. You'd have to have Mike Johnson on board saying that he'd bring it up in the House and that he'd probably get a fucking revolt from his right if he ever did that. That deal could only work if Trump was involved in negotiation. Right. But he could force Mike Johnson to do it. He cuts the deal and that's the deal. Yeah. Trump needs to feel the pressure and God knows he's not going to feel the pressure. At least I don't think. Well, according to him, he has the highest numbers ever. That's true. That's true. He does.

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45:38All right. We're going to indulge briefly in our true passion, which is to squabble about democratic messaging. Not really squabble. Discuss. Discuss a squabble about democratic messaging. Who knows? Yeah, that's what it is. Discuss a squabble. There's a debate about a debate. If you're very online, if you're plugged into the persuasion versus turnout discourse, which we unfortunately are you may have seen the democratic analyst simon bazalon published a big new report called deciding to win along with some co-authors the report argues basically that we fucked ourselves in 2024 by adopting positions that aren't popular with persuadable voters also not focusing enough on the fabled kitchen table issues that the voters really care about you know both of us talked to Simon about, I hadn't known Simon before this, but he reached out and you talked to him.

46:37I talked to him. Yeah, I did not know him before this either. We're both in the acknowledgements as people who read a draft of the report. So I don't think the report changed too much from when I looked at an initial draft. No, I offered thoughts and comments. That was just the point to play. Simon and I basically had a conversation and a debate that we'll probably have right now, So just to let you in on what it was like. But why don't you walk people through sort of the basic findings and particularly those findings that you thought were different or new or surprising in any way? Yeah. I mean, this report has been characterized as a call for Democrats to become more moderate.

47:18And it is that in some ways. Now, the headline in Semaphore from the story that Dave Weigel wrote analyzing the report was something like, report, left-wing ideas, crush Democratic brand or something like that. And I think the report is much more nuanced than that. It's like 100 pages. It involves hundreds of thousands of interviews with voters, discussions with a lot of people like us who agree with some of the report, don't agree with all of the report. But it's a very thorough, very thorough research project. It's based on a report done in 1989 called The Politics of Evasion, which became the foundation for Clintonism, essentially, after we got clobbered in the 1988 election.

47:57I think the basic argument of the report is as follows. Not just over in 2024, but basically since 2013, or basically the bulk of the Trump era, Democrats have become seen by voters as much more liberal, much more out of touch with mainstream values. the percentage of voters who say Democrats is too liberal has gone up by huge numbers over that period of time. While, interestingly enough, the number of voters who say Republicans is too conservative has actually gone down over that same period of time, which I know seems crazy, and we can come back to why that might be. And Simon argues that it's not just perception.

48:37This is not just the Fox News calling us liberals or Trump tweeting about us. If you actually look at how Democrats talk and you look at the platform, you look at the words Democrats use, you'll see we've become much more focused in our rhetoric on identity and cultural issues over that period of time. And then Simon looks at what voters want politicians to prioritize, which is economic issues and border security, essentially. And then he looks at what - Public safety. Yeah, public safety. That can be crime, immigration, et cetera. Then looks at what voters think Democrats are prioritizing, and it's all the other things, They think we prioritize climate change, democracy, guns, identity issues, those sorts of things, and that we're essentially not focused on the things they want us to focus on.

49:24And therefore, and there's a lot of sort of specific recommendations in this report, but that the argument here is that Democrats have to change what we're focused on, become much more focused on economic issues in the minds of voters. We have to be willing to run against or break from the positions that voters think we have on issues like immigration, crime, some identity issues that are unpopular and basically rebuild the Democratic brand since the ground up. Now, Simon would say to you, and the report makes very clear, he is not arguing for sort of corporate centrism. He's not saying for centrism at all.

50:00We're just trying to find the mushy middle between the two. He gives special credit in the report to politicians like Bernie AOC and Zoran who have focused like lasers on economic issues, and that has been to their great benefit. And then we can – the rest of the party can learn a lot of lessons from them. But then we could also learn lessons from people like Tom Swasey who won a tough election in New York running in part against Biden's border policies or Jared Golden who has won several tough elections in a very red part of Maine. And then you have to be willing to break with the party and break with party orthodoxy on some issues.

50:39Fair summary? Fair summary. I'm trying to think of anything else that I like. I guess my impression of it was nothing. And this is not a criticism, but nothing in it really surprised me, which I think is that's OK, because I think it confirmed a lot of other really good research that we have talked about many times on the show. I think it is in line with some of the exit polling. It's in line with what cattle has found. It's in line with what Pew found in terms of the electorate and how the electorate has changed over time. One thing you see is that the groups and basically the time horizon of this paper or this this report is between 2012 and 2024.

51:20And you see over that time that the groups of voters that Democrats have suffered the biggest losses with between 2012 and 2024 are black conservatives, black moderates, Hispanic conservatives, Hispanic moderates and non-college white moderates. there's you don't have non-college white conservatives in here because we've already lost them and you know like the biggest the biggest loss comes from black conservatives right also like hispanic conservatives we probably had lost some of them before 2012 as well but what really happens is voters of color who uh black voters latino voters asian voters to an extent as well who were voting for democrats even though they identified as politically moderate or conservative have now realigned to the Republican Party so that their identity is less salient in their political choice than what they believe about politics, which is that they are more moderate and conservative.

52:23And people don't see that the Democratic Party is as welcoming to moderate and conservative voters. And unfortunately for all of us, the vast majority of voters are either moderate or conservative and and non-college educated and the percentage of voters in the country who identify themselves as liberal is the lowest of all three categories conservative moderate and liberal on top of that they also find what i think the new york times and others have found as well catalyst all of them that the voters who stayed home in 2024 were not more progressive in any way or liberal in any way than the voters who showed up.

53:06And in fact, they looked more like moderate or conservative voters. They look more like Trump voters. Most of these analyses say that if everyone had voted, Trump would have won by a lot more. There are some people who disagree with that. I'd say the bulk of the analyses to date suggest that. Yes. And so that's tough news. I think the better news is what I found interesting was sort of the list of policies Because when you say like be more moderate on this and don't be more moderate on that, it's like we talk about it in terms of like broad categories. First of all, the broadest category is just like you're moderate, you're conservative, you're liberal.

53:42Like what does that mean? Then you go issue by issue. But even when you go issue by issue, within those issues, there are different policies that are more popular or not. So I actually found like the list of like most popular Democratic policies, least popular Democratic policies, most popular Republican policies, least popular Republican policies. I found that more illuminating than a lot of the other information which I had just seen in other reports. Yeah, I think – I mean, this is challenging for me because like I – like one of my big schticks is that like left-right is not the right access to understand politics.

54:16And I think we were all hung up on that. That's the point I made to Simon when I talked to him about this. And obviously, his entire report was basically around that concept. And so I sort of struggle. So I find the things that I just went through about the state of the party and how people view the party being incredibly useful and important. And whether you think we should be more moderate, more liberal, or do stay where we are but do it differently, you have to reckon with the reality of how people see us. And this isn't a value judgment on the term liberal. It's that people see we're out of touch.

54:49There's an interesting chart in there which goes through the percentage of people who said that the Democratic nominee was too liberal. So from Barack Obama ran in 2012, it was like 43 % said he was too liberal. And like 54 % said he was too conservative or just right. For Hillary Clinton, the majority said she was too liberal. For Joe Biden, and this is really notable, only 39 % of voters said he was too liberal. Because he really had that sort of moderate demeanor, and he's an old white man and all of that. And then for Kamala Harris, once again, a majority said that. 50-50. Yeah, it's like it is like I think that's correlation, not causation.

55:28But, you know, and also there's another chart that looks at who say the party is out of touch. The huge rise in the number of Democrat voters who think Democratic Party is out of touch and the number of Republican people who think the Republican Party touches come down 5 percent since 2012. Right. And so you have to reckon with the fact that we are not people do not relate to our party. They do not. The brand is in tatters. Right. And so how do you fix that? And it's not to me as simple as become more moderate. Right. Because like he's not actually arguing as far as I can tell that we have to develop, quote unquote, moderate economic policies.

56:07Right. That's not really what he's arguing. No, though some liberal policies or progressive policies are unpopular and some are very popular. And I think that I think the difference there is important, not just because, you know, the policies that you sign up for are automatically what voters decide the election on. But I do think that, like, some of the values behind those policies are an indicator of, like, messaging and values that we might want to think about. So like minimum raising the minimum wage, very popular, right? One of the most popular policies. Also, like anything about not cutting Medicare and Social Security, adding prescription drug coverage to Medicare, dental, vision, like making health care better, more accessible, more affordable, for sure.

56:55Medicare for all not not popular. Right. Even though all those other health care things were. And so it is interesting, like what becomes popular and what doesn't even within these buckets, you know. I think the thing that people have to reckon with here is – this is sort of another version of popularism, this idea that we should talk about popular things and not talk about unpopular things. Almost every Democrat is for raising the minimum wage. It's not like we had a bunch of anti-minimum wage Democrats out there who are getting hammered at the polls for not being sufficiently pro-minimum wage.

57:28The problem is they can't get any attention for the fact that they're pro-minimum wage. Right. And so – Because they need a fight. You need a fight. They need a fight for that, yeah. And this is the real challenge is Democrats do not have the media throw weight to make politics be about what we want it to be about. And so we're constantly fighting on the issues that Republicans want it to be about, but also happen to be the issues that drive conversation and virality in this media age, which is issues of identity. right and we've seen that that has been true basically really if you take back go back to like 2012 when it started to change remember when like the most popular content on the internet was buzzfeed lists of like 10 reasons 10 ways you know you went to uva in the 90s or you know how you know you're from outside of boston like because it speaks to your identity and so now when you have algorithms that are serving content to that is based that they think you're going to engage with they're looking at they're using the metadata about your identity to show that to you and so So making politics about some of these other issues and getting attention for them is quite challenging, right?

58:35And so it's easy to say, talk more about the economy. The real question is, how do you get people to hear what you're saying about the economy more? And that is like what everyone has to reckon with. I think there's that. And then I think the other big issue is, how do you engage on the issues where Democrats are not as popular as Republicans or not as trusted as Republicans and in a way that is still in line with what people want. So my hobby horse is immigration. And, you know, I think everyone should be talking about the armed agents in the streets. And, you know, no policy was tested about whether or not we want armed masked agents in the streets disappearing people.

59:15But when you look through the and even, you know, you mentioned some of these are cultural identity issues. But when you look at the most unpopular democratic policies that they tested, like trans issues, they were not in that top. Like the ones that were most unpopular had to do with public safety and immigration. Those are that, like if I would say even more than cultural identity stuff, like that is looking at this report, like that is where Democrats have the biggest weakness. Abolish the police, most unpopular policy ever. Which no Democrat supports. Which no Democrat supports, but you know, it was a thing in 2020 and everyone probably thought a lot of Democrats supported it, right?

59:52Even though no one does now. Abolish prisons. Same thing. Provide free health care to undocumented immigrants, number three, which again, no Democrat supports, but this is what they did in 2020. They did in 2020. Yeah. Lower the voting age to 16. Sorry, Lovett. I know. I like that idea, too. That's the fourth most unpopular policy. Cut police budgets by 10%, which I think a lot of Democrats would say some of the more progressive Democrats back in 2020 probably were four. Oh, yeah. Something like that. Increase refugee admissions. Very unpopular. and subsidized electric vehicle purchases. A lot of the stuff that is subsidies, right?

1:00:31Student loan forgiveness, free college for everybody, subsidized electric vehicle stuff. That is, those economic, I guess you'd call them economic issues. Those economic policies are less popular than economic policies that require more of corporations and rich people, which I think is notable here. So like minimum wage, going after tax cheats, making, you know, like things that don't seem like a handout, but seem like or at least will be perceived as a handout because Republicans will say that, but are like really taking on corporate power tend to be much more popular. Yeah. And Simon does recommend in the end that no matter what else you do here, you have to have an aggressive critique of the system, right?

1:01:17The political system, the economic system, corruption, money and politics, all of that. Because one of the challenges here is, and the report doesn't exactly get to this either, is it's not just that people don't think we focus on these policies. It's also they don't think that we can deliver on them because we're too weak, we're too much of institutionalists, we're too corrupt. and until you do it. And so my main takeaway from this is I do not believe that Democrats have to move to the center writ large. I think that is an overly simplistic thing. I think we do have to do some things in our, we have to come to terms with the fact that we don't just get that the median voter is to the right of the median Democratic politician.

1:01:57And we have to recognize that we have to appeal to those people. We have to persuade those people that we share their values, even if we disagree on some issues. And that the Democratic – this is where this is going to get my other controversial – I think the Democratic Party brand as it currently stands cannot be fixed. I just like, tell me what the world is where like Democratic Party establishment figures go on a whistle stop tour and they remind everyone of what we're doing right or that a bunch of billionaires. get together and they run ads during the Super Bowl, right? To tell you that Democrats, you know, it's got FDR, Truman, Barack Obama, right?

1:02:37Like this is the future of the party. Like, no, the way we're going to fix this is actually the way we fixed it the last time the party brand was in tatters. With a nominee. Which is a nominee who runs against the party brand and therefore is seen as a different Democrat. And so if you're running for president, you have to run against the party as it currently stands. because, frankly, the establishment is not up to the task. It has failed. This report is an indictment of the Democratic Party over the last 10 years, even as we won elections, a lot of elections, including a presidential election.

1:03:10And the party brand is in tatters, in particular, over the last four years. And so you basically have to burn the thing down to rebuild it in a new image. So this is probably my biggest critique of the report, is there's one chart that Simon uses to argue that it's, you know, all the like we need more to go on Joe Rogan or we need more progressive media or we need to be better at getting attention on social media. And the chart shows that the Democratic politicians in Congress with the biggest social media followings tend to perform. They don't they don't perform better than expectations in that given district.

1:03:47Right. In fact, they perform under expectations in their given state or district. And that some of the Democrats who most overperform their expectations in their district or their state are people who don't have almost any social media following and barely get any attention. And then they have an electability index, which shows the same thing of like possible 2028 candidates. And it's like who has performed better than the national average in their last election? You know, and like Andy Beshear in Kentucky, right? Top of the list. Gavin Newsom, bottom of the list, because he won California by a lot, but not as much as like their, whatever, the national, he didn't overperform expectations.

1:04:30He didn't overperform his own state by more, right? So if you're running in a Republican state, you're always, if you win a Republican state, you're always going to win that, right? It'd be mathematically impossible for Gavin Newsom to win California enough, by enough to have Andy Beshear-like numbers. And my big problem with this is that may be true for members of Congress who can run an election in a especially in a House district where you can go talk to a lot of people, meet a lot of them, TV, get reach them by TV, reach them by wherever or even a state. when you're running for the deciding to win is deciding to win the general election it is also deciding to win the democratic primary which is a national primary and in order to get the democratic nomination like andy beshear who way overperformed in kentucky is going to have to get a lot of attention and to get attention what is is he going to be able to get attention we'll find out his first test will be at crooked con next week that's that's what i say like we'll find out Right.

1:05:27And that is and it's so it's it is about getting attention for the issues like like says in this report that people care most about. But there's also like just a lot of intangible factors here about the person's charisma, their ability to excite people, inspire people like you do. And people say, oh, well, you know, we just got to win. But you still have to win a Democratic primary and that's still going to be Democratic voters. You still have to win a general election. You still have to win a general election. And if you cannot win the attention wars or compete in the attention wars and be someone who can go on every podcast and answer all the questions and not get flummoxed and have a quick rejoinder when the right-wing media comes after you, then you're not going to win the election.

1:06:08And be acceptable to the liberal base of the party, even though that by no means makes up the majority of the general electorate or really even the majority of the Democratic Party. It's about half and half liberal and moderate even within the Democratic Party. But you need a candidate who liberals will at least be fine with, if not super excited by, and moderates will get behind. Not an easy task. It's a much harder task than just like picking the most popular policies, I think is where I come down on it. My last thing I'll say here, I think this is for everyone, is that obviously this report, as any report that gets into the future of the Democratic Party does, has created like massive backlash.

1:06:49People are so pissed about this. They're yelling about it. here's the thing i'd say i haven't even seen much of the backlash is it's not weird like i've seen a few tweets here and there but usually usually i'm really in the discourse on this one i guess i must have been busy you haven't been on blue sky because the screenshot of the acknowledgements with uh our names in it has made the rounds um oh no i would say i have not i have not checked blue sky since the the graham platner incident yes um but i would say that before that the the post-Charlie Kirk assassination incident. The nicest thing I can say about it is people are curious as to why you and I are on the list with all these other corporate centrist shills, right?

1:07:27Who are all friends of ours. But it's like, because it's not even - Think that answers itself, guys. But it's people from, you know, the list. It's like people we've worked with in the past. It's like Democratic strategists who work for Progressive Canada. It's like Liz Smith. But the thing I'd say is just, like, no one knows the answers here. Like, there was no one simple answer of go left, go right, do anything else. Like, so let's like get all the data, look at all, look at everything and try to have an open mind about all the various things because we're going to find the solution to this in between the poles of this overly polarized conversation.

1:07:56Yeah. Go tell that on Blue Sky when you go to your Blue Sky launches. I'm going to do that in the safe space of this podcast right now. When you do, yeah. When Senator Dan goes and does a Q &A on Blue Sky. It's AMA. Okay. Two ridiculous updates we had to fill you in on before we get to Tommy's interview with Zoran Mamdani. First, if you aren't a regular viewer of Piers Morgan Uncensored, which what are you doing with your life? You may have missed this exchange from Wednesday night in which hit podcaster Katie Miller got into it with liberal commentator Cenk Uygur. It's very normal for a Miller to be completely and utterly lying.

1:08:39Piers, I'm going to be done with this. If you're going to allow racist and bigoted attacks against one of your commentators, he inserted a line. that says the miller's lie is that not coded language for therefore we are jewish come on pierce where are you what where are you standing god you're so katie if i can if i can hold on hold on hold on so what happened in the holocaust and all the pogroms were disgusting okay Okay.

1:09:09So, first of all, Katie Miller, she talks like her husband now? They do the same, they have the same cadence? Maybe that's how they met. At a fascist speech class. So he says, the Millers lie, and that's anti-Semitism. Yeah. And two, I guess now, we're just going to denaturalize people who hurt the feelings of the ruling regime. people who are who are in the ruling regime also did she just announce some pillow talk about the denaturalization of ilhan omar did she i missed that did she say yeah because it's hard to say what she's saying because she's so much yelling there's so much yelling and backtalk but it's she says hope you know check hope check your citizenship papers hope everything in there is entered correctly you're gonna end up like ilhan omar wow i missed that last part that's a good find i mean a bad find but like what the fuck yeah it's just like what are we doing i'm And they've said it with Momdani, too.

1:10:07And we've talked about that. The two Republican House members, they just they're now. And you see it from all the like MAGA influencer assholes online. The denaturalization thing is the next thing that's coming. But really tough for Katie Miller that, you know, she's in the she's in the media space now, but cannot take criticism very well without threats to deport you. So that's where we're at right now. Absolutely disgusting. Second big media event you might have missed. The other day, the Times of London briefly posted an interview with former New York mayor Bill de Blasio about Zoran Mamdani's economic plans, in which de Blasio appeared skeptical of Mamdani's ideas.

1:10:46The problem was, as de Blasio quickly and strenuously pointed out, he never did an interview with the paper. Now, after a global online manhunt We know who the culprit is Not a prankster Or a Mamdani opponent But a Long Island wine seller Also named Bill de Blasio Whose email address the reporter mistook for the former mayor He told Semaphore that he chose not to correct the misimpression Figuring that a fact checker would And used ChatGPT to help formulate his own actual criticisms There were so many amazing parts of the story. What's your favorite? I really feel like you're the one who should react to this because...

1:11:27I was going to say, yeah, it really does. Have you ever answered questions of The Mandalorian without... Yes, I have. Yeah, I have. No, I told you. I once got an email from someone pretty high up at Disney ABC sending me their notes on the season two of The Mandalorian. And I had to say... Well, first I said, I think it's great. And then I quickly looped in the other Jon Favreau, who's email to have and who we have been confused for each other. So it does happen. It does happen. But so the thing for you is like the other Jon Favreau is a popular, famous, cool person who made The Mandalorian and Swingers.

1:12:08Other great stuff. This other guy has been running around with Bill de Blasio's name for years. and he has a total grudge because when they actually met at a Mets game, Bill de Blasio, the mayor, made a joke and he said, basically, he said, well, how's it feel about my name? I think he sounded like you're fucking killing me with it or something. He did. And then he said to Semaphore, who spells D with a lowercase d because that's the difference. It's the wine cellar, Bill de Blasio, is capital D-E-B-L-A-S-I-O, but the mayor is lowercase d-e, new word, Blasio. And so Wine Cellar says, who spells d with the lowercase d and inserts a space between the two parts of his surname?

1:12:55In de Blasio's view, quote, low-class Italians use a little d. Take that, Bill de Blasio, the mayor. Take that for what you will. There's also a picture of them together. Yeah, because that's when they met for the first time. And then this Bill de Blasio that they reached was very upset. He said, I'm Bill de Blasio. I've always been Bill de Blasio. Great. Nice to have a little moment of joy in these dark times. That's all. That's all we got. All right. You're about to hear from Zoran Mamdani himself, the real one, not a wine cellar from Queens. It's the real Zoran Mamdani. Before we do that, a reminder that depending on where you are, this could be your last chance to vote early in person for Tuesday's election.

1:13:38You know by now that we are hyper-focused on the governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey, Prop 50 here in California. Found my ballot. It's already counted. Love California. I already got the Secretary of State text. I love that text. State Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania, the Public Service Commission race in Georgia. If you know anyone, any of those states, please reach out. Make sure they have a plan to vote. They can find all their voting info at votesaveamerica.com slash vote. Also, fans of strict scrutiny, big news. By popular demand, Leah, Melissa, and Kate are headed to California for their first ever live shows on the West Coast.

1:14:13They'll be at the Herbst Theater in San Francisco on March 6th, and then the Palace Theater in LA on March 7th. Before that, they'll be doing a live show at CrookedCon to close out the day. So go to CrookedCon.com to get tickets for that. There are only a few tickets left. If you can't make it to CrookedCon, you can get tickets to those California shows now at Crooked.com slash events. Lastly, a humble reminder to subscribe to Senator Dan's newsletter, The Message Box. Get it now while he can still write it. I guess you can write it as a senator. Yeah, Chris Murphy has a sub stack. Ted Cruz is fucking podcasting every day.

1:14:47The Message Box is all... Do you think I'm quitting this pod when I get elected to the Senate? Fuck no. I hope. You better not. The Message Box is all about how Democrats can rebuild our coalition, rebrand our party, and most importantly, win elections again. Dan want to give a pitch? I don't know how it could just beat that pitch that I just gave, but yeah. So here's the pitch I'd give. Some would say that MessageBox is a newsletter. I'd say it's my passion project, right? I have discovered that I have so many takes, so many thoughts. They cannot be contained in one podcast alone. That's why I've had to take to writing.

1:15:19Wow. And also, perhaps more importantly, I had this never-ending itch to get back into more granular politics than we do on this podcast. And I really do view message boxes as essentially the equivalent of writing the memos that contain the message guidance, the polling analysis, the political analysis they used to write for candidates like our former boss. And so now anyone can get those. And so it's become very important to me. I feel like we want people out there. I want everyone who reads MessageBox to be able to talk about politics with all their friends and family in a way that can actually persuade them.

1:15:55And so that's sort of the goal there. So the more people that sign up, the more people that sort of expand exponentially so we can reach more people. And so this part always takes a little piece of my soul. But to sign up, go to crooked.com slash yeswedan website we will have to claim back for the Senate race. Yes, we will. Yes, we will. Yes, we did. And you care so much that you're willing to give people a 30-day free trial if they go there right now. Yes, for Pod Save America listeners only. It's a special. And if you say to yourself, Donald Trump's made everything so expensive, even 30 free days is not enough for me, sign up for free.

1:16:36Sign up for free. I want to convince you to become a paid subscriber. Put a lot of content above the paywall, particularly the stuff that can help you win the arguments with your people. And then next week, get ready because we're going to have a lot of analysis on what happened in the elections and what it means for 2026. All right. You heard the man. Cricket.com slash YesWeDan. When we come back, Zoran Mamdani.

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1:18:30My guest today is running to be the next mayor of New York City, Zoran Mondani. Thank you so much for doing the show. Thank you so much for having me. It's a pleasure to be back. So election day is less than a week away. How are you feeling? What's keeping you guys up at night at this point besides, I guess, everything? Well, I was talking to my mom this morning and she was asking me which poll that she should actually trust. And I told her none of them because at the end of the day, all of these are just snapshots in time. The only thing that we know for certain is if we get out there and canvas ourselves.

1:18:58And that's what's giving me a lot of confidence is that we have, we're getting close to 100 ,000 volunteers. We have, I think, 92 ,000 as of last count. And that's going to be the way that we make the case. Because as much as this has been every waking, breathing moment of my life for the last more than a year, I had a friend, Charlie, that went out to Canvas the other day. He met somebody that had never heard of me or of the race. They said they were just tuning in. That's the reality for a lot of New Yorkers, because they're too busy trying to afford the city they call home to care about the politics of that place.

1:19:27That's right. And if people want to knock some doors, Zoron for nyc.com slash GOTV. Is that right? That is exactly right. And I would recommend you come out, you knock, whatever neighborhood is closest to you, it might even be your own. And if you're not in New York City, or you can't make a canvassing shift, you can still phone bank. Because the story of how we won the Democratic primary is as much the 1.6 million doors we knocked as it is the 2.1 million phone calls we made. Here's my pitch. October, November is a beautiful time in New York City to be outside knocking on doors. You will have conversations with voters that surprise the hell out of you.

1:20:00Like they didn't know there was an election happening. They don't know the difference between the candidates. You will learn something about politics that you did not know. And also you'll probably will do it with a group of people that are young and excited and inspired by a campaign and not like just talking about Donald Trump. So give it a shot. We should just have you doing the pitches. I'm in. I'm in. I'm sold. The only downside I'll tell you is after my mom came back from a canvassing shift, she was like the 25 year old I was paired with walk too fast. I was like, okay, you can handle that.

1:20:28That's a good downside. So like bigger picture, President Trump has gone all in to defeat you. He got like Eric Adams to drop out. He's clearing the field. Some of his biggest donors are back in Cuomo. He's overtly threatening to punish the city if you win. What is it like having the full force of the Trump administration coming down on your campaign? And do you think those threats are intimidating voters or make them worry? Like, I don't know if I vote for this guy, is Trump going to send the National Guard into my city? You know, I think this campaign shows New York as a glimpse of what it would be like in governing, in that Donald Trump is sparing no effort at trying to stop our campaign, right?

1:21:04As you've said, pushed Eric Adams out of this race, has made very clear that Andrew Cuomo is his pick. And it's Donald Trump billionaires who put him back in the White House, who've been the ones that are funding Andrew Cuomo's very narrow path back to City Hall. And yet, in spite of all of that, In spite of millions of dollars being spent every single day, we're still seeing an outpouring of support from New Yorkers across the five boroughs. And I think it is New Yorkers who refuse to believe that the two choices in politics are either what we are living through right now in the most expensive city in America, or that it could be worse.

1:21:37Politics has to also offer a vision of life that is better than this, and also has to offer the will to deliver on that vision. And that's what is so exciting is, yes, we will continue to have threats from Donald Trump. But we've also seen those threats existed while he had the most collaborative mayor in New York City history to the Donald Trump agenda. He had Eric Adams, who quite literally knew that his personal freedom was a reality in exchange for him assisting with the administration's immigration agenda. And in spite of that coordination, still the Trump administration took$80 million from New York City's bank account.

1:22:09Still, they suspended more than$50 million from New York City schools. Still, they looked to suspend$18 billion in infrastructure funding. And so we know that the threats, we know that the attempts at intimidation will continue. But I'm confident in our administration and in our city's ability to rebuff them. Yeah, and we cannot let him dictate elections all over the world or here. I know in this final sprint, you guys are leaving no stone unturned. You're trying to persuade every last voter. In that spirit, have you considered reaching out to the fake Bill de Blasio who did an interview with the Times of London attacking you?

1:22:39I couldn't believe that. It was – I think he lives on Long Island, right? So I reached out. I reached out to the fake Bill de Blasio. I shit you not. It turns out that they emailed ****.com. Honestly, not a bad attempt. There are a lot of politicians that have pretty straightforward contact addresses. Yeah, that is true. Bill wrote me back. He said he would be happy to chat this morning. Well, the Bill de Blasio that was featured in the Times of London. Yeah, Times of London, Bill. He told me he'd be happy to chat. I sent him a list of questions, and he didn't write back. So either he didn't like me or he's doing the most authentically de Blasio thing ever by being super late.

1:23:22So we'll find out. I read articles where people reached out to him, and then he told them, meet me on the steps of City Hall. Let's fight. And then they showed up and then they emailed him, where were you?

1:23:36I don't think there's another guy with my name. But I did meet a grocery store owner named Zahran on Steinway the other day. Shout outs to you. Shout out that guy. I really wanted fake Bill to let me know whether you thought Curtis Silla was saying glazing too much. Like, is it funny? Is it try hard? What was your take? Well, that was the first time I'd heard it, and I thought it was quite funny on that stage. Yeah, it was a good moment. Okay, jokes aside, the Times of London is a Murdoch paper. The fact that this London-based newspaper was so desperate to write something shitty about you that they humiliated themselves by interviewing a fake Bill de Blasio, it suggests a level of interest in your campaign from Rupert Murdoch that strikes me as a bit ominous.

1:24:22Does that worry you at all? You guys feel ready for like four years of the New York tabloid treatment? We are. We're ready for it. We've been living through it through the course of this campaign. And it's also an opportunity to make the case to each and every New Yorker as opposed to write people off. And what I mean by that is, you know, we had this rally at Forest Hills. We had more than 10 ,000 people there. One of the attendees, I was stepping out onto the stage and a member of our NYPD security detail pulled me aside. They were like, sir, I just want you to know in your line of sight, you will see someone with a MAGA hat.

1:24:50but we checked and they're here sincerely. And I walk out and there's a guy with a MAGA for Momdani hat and a MAGA for Momdani t-shirt. And I say this to you as an example of there will be many New Yorkers who read the post as the way that they get their news. And I'm still looking to reach out to them as well. And it was actually the post that has endorsed a piece of legislation that I introduced quite some time ago, though they probably won't recall. And that's what it means to have a desire to serve each and every New Yorker, not just the ones who already agree with you. Yeah. And you seem to actually believe it when you say it, unlike the president of the United States.

1:25:26So this question is a bit of a journey, but bear with me. So the closing message from a bunch of your opponents is like, in some part, overt bigotry and Islamophobia. There's Cuomo laughing when a radio host suggested you cheer at another 9-11. Adams and Curtis Lewa said some vile things I'm just not going to repeat. At the same time, I'm watching Donald Trump blow up boats off the coast of Venezuela and kind of marry up the war on drugs with the war on terror in just the worst way possible. And for me, it's just like the latest reminder that this country has not moved on from the post 9-11 fear-based war on terror policies and politics.

1:26:05And you recently gave this remarkable speech where you addressed the Islamophobic attacks on you. And you said, quote, the bigger question is whether we are willing to say goodbye to anti-Muslim sentiment that has grown so endemic in our city that when we hear it, we know not whether the words were spoken by a Republican or a Democrat. We know only that it was spoken in the language of politics in this city. A great speech. Everyone should watch it. It's up on YouTube. It's only 10 minutes long. And my question is, where do you think your campaign fits in that process, in that journey, this like decades long effort now to move past the post 9-11 politics of fear?

1:26:41You know, I hope that this campaign represents to New Yorkers across the five boroughs, the possibility of being their full selves in the city that they call home. Because I spoke in that speech about how for a long time, many Muslims were made to feel as if that safety could only be found in the shadows. And two days after I gave that speech, I went to Abyssinian Church and Reverend Johnson gave a sermon in part in response to my speech, speaking about the allure of the shadows and the necessity of stepping out of those shadows. And he looked at me in the course of that speech and he told me that I was enough.

1:27:19And these are the words that I think many New Yorkers need to hear and understanding that there is no amount of shrinking themselves into a box that will ever be sufficient. And he quoted from the Bible and spoke about Esther. And when she said, if I perish, I perish. You know, if the cost of living up to the moment and what it is demanding of me is to lose myself, it is still worth doing so. And I continue to see in New Yorkers, many of them Muslim, but many of them also not, that this feeling of an ever narrowing definition of who gets to belong in the city is the antithesis of what makes so many so proud to be New Yorkers.

1:27:58And I think that there's this tendency to think in an era where we have a bully in the White House that the only way to take him on is to become the bully ourselves. It's similar to the articles that were written after the presidential election when we saw the rightward shift in New York, that in order to defeat the Republican Party, we may have to become the Republican Party. The truth is, in fact, we have to live up to what made so many people excited to be a part of the Democratic Party when we had an affirmative vision for the dignity of working class people. And I think that we have been far too willing to cast so many aside in the hopes of retaining power as opposed to building a coalition that can win power.

1:28:39That is what I hope that we are on the precipice of right now. Yeah, me too. As you know, at the same time, your opponents in the New York Post, again, they're closing the campaign by going back to this focus on your views on Israel. Specifically, they're circulating this clip from 2023 where you said, quote, we have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it has been laced by the IDF. Was that a reference to just like police training that happens often, including NYPD going to Israel to get training from the IDF for the Israeli police or intelligence. That's what that was a reference to.

1:29:12And I find that no matter how much we have, whether it be the Post or whether it be my opponents, looking to make the closing message of this race about anything other than the most pressing crisis in New Yorkers' lives, I found that New Yorkers, when I actually meet them in person across the five boroughs, it still comes back to the same thing that they told me more than a year ago. Cost of living, cost of living, cost of living. And I think in many ways we see that all Andrew Cuomo has is a vision of the past as it was, as it should have been. And what we have actually is a vision of the future.

1:29:43And we're going to see the contrast of that only increase over the next five days. Yeah. When I watch your campaign, when I watched the great rally you did with AOC and Bernie on Sunday, and I see that energy, it brings me back to 2007 when I was young and working for Barack Obama in Iowa. And everything was ahead of us. It was all hope and excitement. And there was nothing we couldn't do. And then, you know, of course, as you know, right, like candidates become, you know, get elected and you face inevitable setbacks and sometimes, you know, your supporters can feel frustrated or demoralized. And I just wondered if you have thought about that or worried about, you know, how much hope and excitement there is behind your campaign and how many young people are getting involved and feeling like your campaign is the avenue to get them back into politics and feel that excitement again, and how they can prepare themselves for how difficult it is to govern.

1:30:36You know, I think that with hope comes an immense responsibility to deliver on the promise of it. And I take very seriously that responsibility, because as you've said, this is a hope that for many New Yorkers has been the first time they've experienced it in the politics of their city. For others, it's the first time they've experienced it in years, since the last time they actually engaged with politics. And the things that are written behind me, these cannot just be slogans. These have to be commitments that we deliver on. And it will be hard, it will be difficult, but I continue to believe that what we have seen in our politics in this city for far too long is an unwillingness to even try, an unwillingness to even dream of the life that people actually deserve.

1:31:19And I know that the coalition we've built has proved that impossible is nothing on many a different juncture over the course of this last year, I know that we can continue to do the same in actually governing the city, delivering on these promises, and showing New Yorkers that when they look for representation in their city hall, they will find it in the struggles that we focus on, because those will be the struggles that New Yorkers are experiencing each and every day. Final question. What is more annoying, people whining on message boards about Arsenal's playing style or Bill Ackman's tweets?

1:31:52You know, it's tough. It's tough. I'm going to say it's got to be Arsenal. Because at this point, Bill, I've come to expect the tweets. I kind of look forward to the tweets. It feels like you're trying to tweet as many as we would tax you, but you're spending even more than that. So long. But when it comes to the Arsenal message boards, guys, we've been through the tough years. Come on. Results. Is Arteta getting fired if Arsenal doesn't win the Premier League? Arteta Inn. I'm not even entertaining that hypothetical. Okay. This is what's wrong with the media. Every other question was fair, and then you went the wrong way.

1:32:29Zoran Mamdani, thank you so much for doing the show. Again, that's Zoran4NYC.com slash GOTV if you want to knock on some doors. Best of luck next week. Thanks so much, man. Appreciate you guys.

1:32:44That's our show for today. Thanks to Zoran Mamdani for coming on. I'll be back on your feet on Sunday with a great conversation I had with CNN's Abby Phillip about covering Trump, hosting one of the most contentious shows on television, and her fascinating new book about Jesse Jackson's presidential campaigns. Talk to you all then. Bye, everyone. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad-free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review. That helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked.

1:33:17Pod Save America is a Kricket Media production. Our producers are David Toledo, Emma Illich Frank, and Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farrah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reid Churlin is our executive editor. Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics. The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer, with audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis. Matt DeGroat is our head of production. Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant. Thanks to our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, We'll see you next time.