1127: Trump's Dangerous War Games

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28:49Jon Favreau:All right, let's turn to a lighter topic. The peace president's next war. A lighter topic than your Twitter fights with a fucking loser. Yeah, what is that? It's war. It's war, Dan. Real estate bozos Steve Whitcoff and Jared Kushner met with Iranian officials in Geneva on Thursday to negotiate a new nuclear deal and possibly stave off military intervention. Spoiler alert, didn't go well. No agreement was reached after the first day of negotiations. This comes after Politico reported that the administration is toying with the idea of having Israel, not the U.S. military, launch the first strike against Iran.

29:27Jon Favreau:Why? Here's what a source familiar with the discussions told Politico. Quote, there's thinking in and around the administration that the politics are a lot better if the Israelis go first and alone and the Iranians retaliate against us and give us more reason to take action. I don't know. What do you make of the White House wanting to use American lives as bait to sell the rest of the country on a war with Iran? It seems like it should be a gigantic scandal that they would like to do this. Right? Seems like it should be a big deal. It's not. There's a lot happening today. It's not to even make the A block of this podcast.

30:06Jon Favreau:It literally came after an online feud you had. About the State of the Union. It was an offshoot. Yeah, I understand. There was a reason it fell to where it did in the lineup. Um, but it does speak to how impossible this war is to sell to the American people that they cannot do it in any sort of normal way. It's why they're not even trying to do it so that they're so desperate for a rationale for a war that the neocons of which Trump is not one of them, apparently have wanted for decades and decades and decades. It's they're so desperate for that for to create a pretext for this war that they are that they are.

30:46Jon Favreau:One of the ideas on the whiteboard is let's get let's get some Americans killed so that Americans will be mad and want to go to war with Iran. Seems bad. Let's yeah, I mean, let's let Israel go first. So because, again, the Israeli government, very popular here. Let's let the Israeli government go first. And then Iran will retaliate and what, maybe hit an American military base, I guess. And, you know, we're hoping that our defenses will hold and no one will get hurt. But, you know, who knows? Because maybe if an American service member is killed or wounded, then American people will be like, well, Iran attacked us and killed Americans.

31:28Jon Favreau:And so now we have to attack Iran. And, like, honestly, the worst part of it is I could see it working. I don't think it would work. I really don't. I think that the Trump people think the American people are stupid, and they're not. If Israel attacks Iran, and then Iran attacks an American base, I do not think the American people are then want to sign up for a protracted war in the Middle East. I certainly hope not. I certainly hope not. I was, I talked to you about this earlier, but I think, I can't remember which podcast I said this on, but you know, the polling was at like 20 % of Americans support any kind of action against Iran.

32:06Jon Favreau:We talked about this in an actual private conversation that wasn't recorded. There we go. It's wild. But then the CBS poll that dropped the day of the State of the Union asked it with, would you support military action in Iran to prevent them from getting a nuclear weapon. And when you add a nuclear weapon, then it was 47 % approve, 53 % disapprove. So you can start, basically you can just start seeing their house of lies that they're building this case on. You know, ballistic missiles that may reach the United States soon. And oh, now what if Iran attacks America as a retaliation for Israel? Oh, now what if there's a nuclear weapon and they're a week away?

32:49Jon Favreau:They like they're just, you know, they're it's all the greatest hits from Iraq without any of the effort, really. But, you know, everything's gotten dumber since then somehow. And the information environment's gotten a lot more awful. So the American people have gotten a lot more skeptical of foreign interventions. And that question in the CBS poll, I think, in people's minds is a military strike like midnight hammer or whatever we call the other thing. Not an actual protracted conflict that could cost American lives, could lead to attacks on the homeland or on Americans abroad, could likely lead to a giant spike in oil prices and just general chaos in the world.

33:34Jon Favreau:And just remember, this is a president at 38 % approval who is underwater on every single issue, including national security and foreign policy, who may launch the United States into a war he has not explained to a single person why it's happening. And so I just think people do not want to go to war, and they really don't want Donald Trump to take him to war. Yeah, that's true. All right, I'm holding out hope. Holding out hope. Although, I mean, I guess hope for public opinion. I mean, by the time you're listening to this, it is quite possible that the strike happened because the gating issue was they were going to get through these talks on Thursday.

34:16Jon Favreau:We're recording this on Thursday. The talks are over. So at any point something could happen. I would not be surprised if it happened over the weekend or overnight. We don't know. Yeah. So House Democrats are also planning to hold a War Powers Resolution vote next week that would force the president to seek congressional authorization before carrying out any military service. strikes in iran democrats already have the support of thomas massey who sponsored the bill with roqana and on thursday morning uh representative warren davidson a republican from ohio threatened to support the resolution if the white house didn't brief congress on its justification for the war uh the white house unsurprisingly is already uh whipping votes to defeat the resolution and i think we democrats have already lost at least josh gottheimer and uh and and jared Moskowitz, I think, on this one.

35:02Jon Favreau:So I don't think we have the votes currently, but I don't know. What do you think? Do you think there's a chance that Democrats can get enough votes to pass this thing? I don't know. I think it's hard for Republicans to vote to him in the president on a national security issue. So we'll see. You guys got to rant about this on Tuesday. I would like to reclaim my time for a second. Please. Yes, go. What Jared Moskowitz and Josh Gottheimer are doing here is disgusting. Even if you believe against all evidence that Iran is an imminent threat to the United States that demands military action, the idea that you would let this president, this corrupt tin pot dictator surrounded by yahoos, including a military commanded by a Fox News host.

35:50Jon Favreau:Who's drunk. Who's with a reported drinking problem. Allegedly, maybe. wage war in Iran without going to Congress, that you would give up your responsibility, your power to try to influence how that war would take place because you want to show yourself to be tough on Iran or friendly with Israel or whatever else is just, it is immoral. It's unpatriotic. It is truly, truly disgusting. Like we can disagree about the merits of military action in Iran, you cannot credibly argue that Donald Trump without Congress on his own should unilaterally launch a war with Iran. That is an insane position for a Democrat.

36:34Jon Favreau:Like, I think striking Iran in a war is insane. But like, let's say that you just genuinely believe it's the right thing to do, right? Well, then like, what are you afraid of taking it to Congress where you work, where you have been elected to represent people and having the debate there and making a decision as a Congress as the Constitution intended. Yeah. All that War Powers Resolution is doing is saying Donald Trump has to come to Congress first. There is not an imminent threat here. And if there was, then the president has the power to act. But there is not one. We know this because Donald Trump told us quite recently that they obliterated the nuclear program in Iran.

37:14Jon Favreau:And you can, I mean, you know, I yelled about this before, but you can tell that it's bullshit from the line in Gottheimer's statement that it's like, you know, doing this would show weakness. What are we in, fucking 2003 here? Yes, I mean, it's also just like, Josh, you were there. You were there. We went through this. He was on the Kerry campaign with me. We went through John Kerry voting for the fucking war in Iraq. Everyone gave President Bush the authorization for the same reasons. We don't want to hemmen the president. We want to give him the authorization for war. I mean, this isn't even that.

37:49Jon Favreau:If you want to vote to authorize the war, I think that is an insane position. But that is a vote. That is you putting your name in and saying, I support this. I'm giving you my power from a co-equal branch to authorize this military conflict. To try to block the vote from ever happening to somehow burnish your national security bona fides is disgusting. It's insane. I do not understand it. Well, Dan, good news. Sometime in the near future, our government's wars of choice may not require humans to fight them. I talked about this on Offline last week, but the Department of Defense is threatening Anthropic because the AI company won't let the government use Claude, their AI model, for mass surveillance on Americans or for firing weapons without human involvement.

38:39Jon Favreau:Axios reported on Wednesday that the Pentagon has taken its first steps toward designating Anthropic a, quote, supply chain risk, which would mean that no company that works with the Department of Defense could also work with Anthropic. The Pentagon typically reserves the supply chain risk penalty for companies that are based in countries that are U.S. adversaries, like China's Huawei. Even more alarming, Elon Musk's XAI signed a deal with the Department of Defense this week that agreed to the standard Anthropic rejected. So the government's murderous surveillance drones may someday run on grok.

39:18Jon Favreau:And Anthropik, in a statement, right, as we were starting to record, said that they are in good conscience cannot agree to this, and so they're holding strong. Dan, is this what people voted for? For murderous surveillance drones that can run on grok? To be commanded by Pete Hicks death? No, I don't think it's what people voted for. I mean, this should be honestly one of the biggest stories in the country because it tells us two things. One, it speaks to all of the massive, ethical and policy dilemmas that come with the very rapid emergence of AI. It also reveals that the Department of Defense, because I will call it that, not the Department of War, under Donald Trump, would like the power to do mass domestic surveillance.

40:00Jon Favreau:And then just on top of that, at the same time this story comes out, that what they want, they want it like the Department of argues we want Anthropic to let us do everything we're legally allowed to do. There are only two rules from Anthropic here. No mass domestic surveillance and no autonomous weapons that don't involve humans actually be the ones who make the decisions. The latter is technically legal, although quite irresponsible, and I'll get to why it's even more dangerous in a second. But mass domestic surveillance, not legal. And why do they want that? There should be some follow-up questions on that.

40:37Jon Favreau:Well, I'm sure it's only going to be mass domestic surveillance if they go to the FISA courts and they get Article 3 courts and they get the warrants properly because that's how they've been doing things in the Trump administration. And that's also not mass. Right. Those are individual things. Although obviously the Bush administration did do it with metadata at a very high, high level. And that continued for many years after that. But the other thing is there's this study that came out the other day where they They were having all of the AI models play war games against each other. And the big takeaway was AI models are very quick to use tackling nuclear weapons in war games.

41:18Yeah.

41:19Jon Favreau:I mean, because they're not hindered by the moral qualms of it. And it is a way like it is the fastest way to domination. And this is like the big takeaway is that this is what they do. And now we want to give them the keys to the arsenal. Like it just it is insane. Also, just on this, it's not just Pete Hexed is such a fucking moron. In the meeting with the CEO of Anthropic the other day, he threatened them with two things when they refused. One was what you mentioned, blacklist and the supply list. The other one is that they would use the Defense Production Act to seize control of Anthropic's AI model.

41:57Jon Favreau:Now, those things are in complete conflict with each other. If you are subject to a Defense Production Author's Act acquisition, it's because what you have is so essential in national security, the government needs it right now. And the other one in the blacklisting is that you're so dangerous that no one who does business with you can be in contact with the government. Yeah. Yeah, I don't know that consistency is what they're going for. But this is just a – this is the future we are living in. And I don't think any of these AI companies are covered in glory. Anthropic, to their – I would say limited – to their credit in this instance.

42:41Jon Favreau:But Anthropic exists. And I just read an incredible book about this. It's called Emperor of AI. Anthropics, which is about open AI. But Anthropics exists because the CEO and the heads of Anthropic and that team left open ai because they thought sam altman was abandoning the original mission of open ai which was to guard against risk now they have also commercialized are running a 380 billion dollar uh company right now but there are a lot of other people who are going to do like elon musk who are going to do the things that anthropic well this is i know and we were talking about this like you could i mean anthropic could be the best actors ever right let's just in a pretend scenario that they're they're only out there they don't even care as much about making money and they're only there for good just let's just the people who gave them 380 billion dollars probably hope they care about but i'm saying like just for the sake of argument yeah the problem is like we're in a very competitive environment in a free market system and there's going to be other companies and there's good and like whether they're u.s companies or bad actors overseas and foreign companies whatever they may be someone's going to figure out a way to do this which is why you can't just fucking make a make a bet on a company being made up of good people you have to fucking regulate it, which this administration is not doing.

43:51Jon Favreau:Like there is, there is no scenario here where it is not absolutely necessary to regulate artificial intelligence. There's just no scenario. And with statutory, with statutes, with legislation, like, yes, the administration whose current philosophy is no regulations at all. And they're trying to ban regulations at the state level, but Congress needs to get involved here. And that is dangerous because most of them are still using their AOL accounts. But the fact that AI cannot do mass surveillance and automated weapons should be in law. That's something that should be in law and written in a way that prevents it.

44:30Jon Favreau:So it's not up to the goodwill of CEOs of multi-billion dollar companies to hold the line against this. And the only sliver of good news here is that they can't automatically fire the weapons yet. They're not. That is, they don't have that capability yet. I think they don't have the mass surveillance capability yet either, but they're, you know, they're all pretty close. But they are using AI to go through intelligence and do decision-making matrices. God knows when Elon Musk get the ex-AI on there, but, you know, I'm sure that could be greenlit by Donald Trump any day now. Yeah, well, he's too busy making sure that AI can undress images of random people online.

45:12Jon Favreau:So that's what he's focused on.

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48:16All right.

48:17Jon Favreau:We should also talk about the latest developments in the Epstein scale. Man, what a pod this is. Honestly, now I'm sort of regretting spending seven to eight minutes on your Twitter habits. Apologies to the listeners. Which is in the news today because the House Oversight Committee took a field trip to Chappaqua, New York, for a closed-door deposition with Hillary Clinton. Bills is scheduled for Friday. Hillary said she had no memory of meeting Epstein, no knowledge of his crimes, and briefly paused the deposition at one point after Lauren Boebert snapped a pic and leaked it to Benny Johnson because, of course, Hillary later came out and told the press the same thing that she said in her statement, but that also towards the end of the deposition, They started asking her about UFOs and Pizzagate.

49:02Jon Favreau:So that's what that's how the Republicans were using their time in Chappaqua. Stay tuned tomorrow for part two with Bill Clinton. But the much bigger Epstein news this week is that Trump's Justice Department appears to have removed FBI notes from three interviews that agents conducted in 2019 with a woman who accused Jeffrey Epstein and Donald Trump of sexually abusing her in 1989. when she was just 13 years old. We know this because the DOJ did release the FBI's initial interview with the woman, where she only accused Epstein of abusing her in that initial interview, and because they released a summary of the allegations against Trump that just happened to be in an FBI presentation about the Epstein files from last summer, allegations that were also referenced in an evidence list that prosecutors provided to Ghislaine Maxwell's attorneys, which was also released on the DOJ website.

50:01Jon Favreau:So the existence of those two documents reveals that there were these three interviews that the FBI conducted with the woman where she had made allegations against Donald Trump. But the notes for those three interviews have disappeared from the website. This was first reported by the journalist Roger Sullenberger and then confirmed by NPR and other outlets. On Wednesday, the Justice Department said it would take another look to see if any documents were improperly tagged and will release anything they find that falls under the requirements of the law. On Thursday, Oversight Chairman James Comer said the committee would be looking into it as well.

50:35Jon Favreau:What do you think, Dan? It's just pretty stunning. What are the odds that the documents we mislabeled would be the ones that included allegations about Donald Trump? Just like what are the odds? What are the odds? What are the odds? But also, what are the odds that they are still incompetent enough to leave a couple documents in there that reveal the existence of these allegations? We are dealing with criminals. We are not dealing with criminal geniuses. Yeah. This is the thing that people said about the Epstein files, which is, you know, it's very possible or real that Pam Bonney, Cash Patel, some other person who works for Trump could go in there and take out the Trump stuff.

51:19Jon Favreau:And people kind of said, that's crazy. That's conspiracy theory. It's like these guys lie and cheat in every way, shape, or form, and they did it here. They're just really bad at it. But if they were slightly better, if they had third-grade competency in criminality, then no one would ever know this happened. Yeah. And the documents are currently not – we don't know where they are. And I think the oversight-ranking member, Congressman Garcia, went to go find him. He hasn't seen them yet. Have they been destroyed? like these are fair questions to ask yeah it also seems like this one is uh not going away because you assume that um the the victim is out there or the the person who made the allegations um she also made allegations against jeffrey epstein they're more substantiated than the allegations against donald trump we should say of course they're unsubstantiated so far but like you may have to imagine she's out there her lawyers are out there people who know her out there like i just people who conducted the interviews are out there people who yeah the fbi agents are Right.

52:18Jon Favreau:So it's like, I don't think this is the last we've heard of this one. It speaks to the volume of insane news in Trump's presidency that we have talked about a war with Iran. We have talked about the Fox News host defense secretary trying to use killer robots. And now we are talking about a potential, like the Department of Justice going illegally. This is illegal what they did if this was done intentionally. Illegal. It violates the law that was passed requiring disclosure of the records. Went into illegally hide, steal, or destroy records that implicate Donald Trump in a child sex trafficking ring.

53:03Jon Favreau:Like that is what it is. Like whether those allegations are real or not, we don't know. But the cover up, the attempt to protect him from those allegations is a massive, massive scandal. Also one that, like, this was known, the NPR story hit the day of the State of the Union. Because we first talked about this on Jimmy Killen Live. Yeah. Because there was a question about the Epstein files. And so we brought it up there too. But, like, it's wild that the whole State of the Union happens and we're just like, okay. That's so true of, like, so many other things. Like, I mean, there's just a different world with a different president of a different media environment where this is all we've talked about for a year and a half now.

53:42Jon Favreau:Every single day. Yeah. I mean, it is wild that, I mean, it's still in the news. I mean, it is a gigantic scandal, like you said, but it is one of the few stories that has sustained itself for all these months. This all kicked off last summer, really. Yeah, for sure. So I know we've talked about Trump's plans to steal the midterms quite a bit recently, but there's a new development on that front we should also mention. The Washington Post reports that, quote, pro-Trump activists who say they are in coordination with the White House are circulating a 17-page draft executive order that claims China interfered in the 2020 election as a basis to declare a national emergency that would unlock extraordinary presidential power over voting.

54:22Jon Favreau:So that's fun. One lawyer who's pushing the EO told the Post it would empower Trump to ban mail ballots and voting machines, among other things. So they're going to use this fake finding that China interfered in 2020 to justify a national emergency to justify taking the power to run elections away from the states, which is, of course, constitutionally mandated. How real do you think this is? And what's your gut on how the court might respond? There are definitely lunatics outside the White House working on this. There are definitely lunatics inside the White House who are helping them do this.

55:02Jon Favreau:Whether Trump signs it or not, or actually comes out open question, I really struggle to see what the legal basis for any of this is, right? As you mentioned, it's in the constitution. They are ironically enough, relying on the same statute that the tariffs were used for, the emergency power statute, which has no specific discussion of elections or any of these things. There is no statutory power the president has, even in an emergency over elections. And there is no evidence of foreign involvement. This is based entirely on an intelligence report that Beijing considered, but then decided not to get involved in the 2020 election.

55:50That's it.

55:51Jon Favreau:And also, the remedy for Beijing considering, but deciding not to get involved in the 2020 election is to ban the mail ballots and voting machines? In the 2026 election. There is some weird thing about how they were like a, like one of the conspiracy theories is they're going to make driver's licenses, fraudulent driver's licenses for people to vote by mail. But the point is, it makes no sense. I can't imagine, like, you know, I don't put a ton of faith in the judiciary and the Supreme Court, but this seems quite, like, if you thought their interpretation of the law on the terrace was absurd, this is like, 10 ,000 times more absurd than that.

56:30Jon Favreau:I agree with you. And if I were a conspiracy minded myself, I might say that one of the reasons that Trump flew off the fucking handle with that Supreme Court decision, why he was so angry at the Supreme Court and said such crazy shit, like they've betrayed their families and they're disloyal and other shit is because someone told him that that 6-3 majority in that case is probably what you'd get in a case where he tried to declare a national emergency and take over the elections. Yeah, that seems possible. If I was conspiracy minded, I would also think about that. But you're right that like, even if that wasn't going through Trump's mind, I do think that the reasoning, if you look at that case, the reasoning that Roberts and Barrett and the liberals signed on to and Gorsuch and the liberals all signed on to is like it is it's like you can do major questions doctrine.

57:31Jon Favreau:You can use president like there's there's you can't you can't usurp Congress's power that is prescribed explicitly in the Constitution with a fucking executive order just because you say there's a national emergency. Right. It's literally the exact same thing, right? It's the same reason. Power to administer elections. In this case, states, you're taking power from the states, which is explicitly designated in the Constitution. You can't do that. You can't do it with the law. You can't do it with an executive order, just like the tariffs. Like, I think this is – like, what is more disturbing about this is the mentality and the lengths to which this administration is willing to consider to try to avoid the – what they believe to be a significant ass-whipping coming in November.

58:13Jon Favreau:Yeah, you can see why it's, yeah, you can see why rigging the election feels important to them, because here's Mike Johnson on Tuesday threatening us with a good time. If we lost the midterms, heaven forbid, if we lost the majority in the House, it would be the end of the Trump presidency in a real effect. So we've got to keep it. Hell yeah, it would be. If that is not in a DCCC fundraising video right now. I mean. And do not text me with it. Do not text me with it. If I get a fucking text, I'm going to say stop. So do not text me with a DCCC. But if you put it in a YouTube pre-roll, that's pretty good.

58:46Jon Favreau:How do fucking Republicans pitch every dumb reporter in D.C. that the moment of the Democrats sitting in the State of the Union, it's going to save the midterms. And then they got the ad out already and they got all the stories about the bullshit ad that's terrible anyway. And like Mike Johnson says that and we can't we can't make something of that. Yeah. Yeah. I mean. anyway we also have a new washington post abc news ipsos poll that found a 14 point enthusiasm gap working in democrats favor for the midterms 79 of democrats said they were certain they would vote in the midterms only 65 of republicans said the same thing that said the generic ballot in this one is only a two-point democratic lead didn't love that part uh but what do you think is going on here or do i have to wait till the next episode of polar coaster because i am a subscriber, which you can be too, at crooked.com slash friends.

59:37Jon Favreau:Actually, John, I hate to do this to you, but you have to wait to the next message box to come out, which you can be a subscriber to at crooked.com slash yes, we did. There we go. Look, I think I'm not worried about the generic ballot in here. The generic ballot average is about six or seven, depending on which site you look at. But this is a, the post reveals what is obvious in the electoral data we've seen so far this year. Democrats are incredibly fired up. Republicans are depressed and swing voters are looking for Democrats. That is what we saw in that special election in Texas. And if you don't want to believe a post-ABC Ipsos poll, just look at what's happening in Texas right now in the early vote.

1:00:14Jon Favreau:So there's a day or two left in early voting. As of Wednesday night, in the Democratic primary, early votes cast are 163 % of what they were in the 2022 election, Democratic primary. Now, you may say to yourself, I don't remember a particularly competitive Democratic election in 2022 in Texas. I don't either. But here's what I will tell you. There is an incredibly contested Republican primary happening right now, which has had tens of millions of dollars spent in the air. I think there's been there might have been$100 million spent in that race already. And Democrats have cast in Texas, a state Donald Trump won by almost 14 points.

1:00:52Jon Favreau:Democrats have cast 140 ,000 more early votes than Republicans as of Wednesday. How do you think some of that is just behavior like Democrats vote early and Republicans don't that um maybe but but the republicans are also trailing their pace from they so there you can look at this comparison of 2022 is instructive right right so you can compare now to 2022 democrats are doing well their republicans are not or you can compare democrats republicans right now and democrats doing better but even democrats do better it's a state with more republicans so they should be doing better and they are not so democrats are fired up like we know republicans are more same-day voters all of that but there is plenty of evidence that Democrats are very, very fired up, and that is good news.

1:01:32Jon Favreau:Too big to rig. That's what we got to do. Just got to have more people voting. So it's too hard to declare a national emergency and take the voting machines. Sure. Yeah, that makes sense. Oh, that's right. I forgot you said this. We need the voting machines to be so full of ballots that little Kash Patel can't carry them out of the Fulton County. Yeah, we did say that. Yes, that's right. Again, I forget what I say off mic and on. All right. Speaking of the midterms, when we come back from the break, you'll hear Tommy's conversation with Shelly Jackson about why we need to field a Democrat in every down ballot race, especially in states like Arizona, where we need to build more electoral power.

1:02:08Jon Favreau:We'll be right back.

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1:04:06Jon Favreau:My guest today is doing absolutely essential work in Arizona, recruiting and supporting candidates for office. Shelly Jackson, welcome to Pod Save America.

1:04:14Dan Pfeiffer:Thank you so much for having me. I'm so grateful to be here.

1:04:17Jon Favreau:We are grateful to you for the work you're doing. So you have a lot to talk about. You ran for school board and you flipped a seat when you were 24. We need more people like you. Now you run an organization called Instituto, which is doing recruiting, training, ongoing support for people who want to run for office or who organize around really important issues. Instituto is also a key partner, I should say, for our friends over at Vote Save America, who launched this first of its kind candidate recruitment pilot program to get candidates to run for down ballot races in Arizona, North Carolina and Texas.

1:04:47Jon Favreau:Now, the filing deadlines in Texas and North Carolina have already passed. But in Arizona, I believe you have until March 23rd if you want to run for office. So go to votesaveamerica.com slash run if you want to learn more. Also, I think the filing deadline has not yet passed in about half of the country. So if you're listening and you are inspired to take the plunge, check out your deadline in your state. But let's start with Instituto. What are the gaps that you guys are filling to help candidates run for office and then, more importantly, to be successful once they win?

1:05:18Dan Pfeiffer:Yeah, I love this question. And yes, also shout out to the Vote Save America team and the Pipeline Fund. It's been so incredible to have this partnership. Here in Arizona, a lot of the times when candidates are running for office and probably all across the country as well, they're doing it with very little support. They're going in, maybe excited to help their community, but don't know where to start and end up missing a lot of gaps along the way. But aside from like the logistical pieces of running for office for women, for people of color, there's also these pieces around funding, right? Having a support system that are also super essential to making sure a candidate can win and that they also have the morale they need to move things along the way.

1:05:59Dan Pfeiffer:And so at Institute, though, we do a couple of things. We help identify candidates. So we are always on the search and we're always looking to find new people who want to get involved. And sometimes just tapping people on the shoulder is needed. A lot of times people don't even see themselves as someone who can make change. And even for myself, let me tell you, I did not have on my bingo card that I was going to run for office. Someone asked me and then they asked me again and again. And so being able to have someone actually tap you on the shoulder is super essential. So that's one of the things that we do is we just straight up ask people.

1:06:32Dan Pfeiffer:And then after that, we are supporting them with training, making sure they have the skills needed to run, making sure that we're also talking through with them. how are you thinking about your finances? If you're running for school board, you don't get paid. If you're running for the state legislator, I believe the most they make is about$27 ,000. And that's a really hard job, right? So we have the conversations and we provide the resources for people to make informed decisions. And then once they get into office, we also have a co-governance fellowship. And this really helps support the now elected thinking through what does it look like to govern?

1:07:07Dan Pfeiffer:What does it look like to do this job well? And what does it look like to do it with community to make sure that we're also not moving on our own and being harmful once we get into office?

1:07:16Jon Favreau:That's great. I mean, so Turning Point USA is also based in Arizona. Folks probably heard of it. It's the organization started by Charlie Kirk. It funds a ton of grassroots youth activism to bring people into the MAGA movement. Now, obviously, I disagree politically with them on like everything, but I am very impressed by the work they have done. What kind of support do you think Turning Point is providing on the Republican side that Democrats are missing on the progressive side? Ooh, I love this question.

1:07:49Dan Pfeiffer:Also cringing at the fact that they started in Arizona. Don't love that. But you know what? One thing I think that they are doing that we can think about more on our side is creating low barriers of entry. I think a lot of the times on our side, we start to do purity tests. We start to create this really high bars just for people to get involved. And sometimes we just end up pushing people away instead of inviting them in. And I do think at Turning Point, they are on campuses. They are all over and they're welcoming any and everyone. And then once they get into the door, I think they push them.

1:08:25Dan Pfeiffer:I think they share this ideology and this narrative that they have. And the more people are there, the more they start to adopt it. But I think sometimes on our side, we forget about that or we expect people to be at a certain place right away. And that's just not where most people are.

1:08:42Jon Favreau:That is such a good point about the barrier to entry, because in a lot of ways, the barrier to entry for a turning point event is like going to a big event that feels like a party where everyone is welcome and they bring you in this giant funnel. And then eventually they can try to get you to run for office or be an activist or whatever it might be. Now, Arizona is a really important swing state in like every single election. One would like to think that, you know, National Democrats, the National Democratic Party, maybe big donors are just chucking resources at you guys. Is that happening? Do you hear from like the DNC, Super PACs, anybody?

1:09:14Dan Pfeiffer:You know what? This year is actually really interesting in Arizona when it comes to the funds, because this will be the first year, I think, in about 14 years that we haven't had, we won't have a Senate race, right? Right. So for the last few cycles, we've had a really big top of the ticket race that has been helpful to garnering support. We know that when we get big funds like that, it really helps other candidates that are down ballot as well. But this year we don't have a Senate race or anything like that. So I think we are already starting to see some differences. The money is not flowing in the way that it has in the past.

1:09:49Dan Pfeiffer:I'm still trying to hold out hope that it is coming and it is on its way because, as you know, we have other races that are still important here in our state.

1:09:56Jon Favreau:Yeah, absolutely. So back to you, you ran when you were 24, you ran for school board, you flipped a seat. What you said, like, you know, you had to be asked and asked and asked again. I mean, what made you want to run for office? And what did you learn from that experience that might inspire or just, you know, like inform listeners who are thinking about doing the same thing?

1:10:14Dan Pfeiffer:Yeah. So you know what, I'm someone who never thought I was going to be in politics and social justice. So I definitely never thought I was going to run for office. So we can just start there. I never saw myself like that. I grew up thinking I was going to be a nurse because my grandma was a nurse. I wanted to be just like her. And I got to my senior year of high school and realized that I like taking care of her. I don't think I would actually like taking care of other people. Yeah, that's fair. Yeah. I was in this crossroads, but I had a dance teacher who was like, look, Shelly, you've danced your entire life.

1:10:47Dan Pfeiffer:Why don't you become a dance teacher? And I said, sounds like a plan. So I went to school for dance and dance education. And during that time, I actually had the opportunity to teach dance all over Arizona, working with an organization. And that was really eye opening for me and was my entry point to really critically thinking about systems and resources. And I started to wonder why when I'm in Scottsdale or when I'm in Chandler, like these students get X, Y, and Z. But when I'm on the South side in the neighborhood I grew up in, we actually don't have as much as many accesses to after school programs or the arts or these other essential pieces that I was seeing in other places.

1:11:27Dan Pfeiffer:And so that had already kind of like opened up my mind. And that's how I started to get into organizing. I was really lucky that a former teacher of mine at the time was now a state representative. And he had posted on Facebook one day, I'm looking for young black organizers to get involved. And I was like, I don't know what that means, but I'm there and I started organizing on all the things. And so to fast forward, 2020 comes around. It's the pandemic. Candidates all over are struggling to get on the ballot, right? Because in order to get on the ballot, you have to get signatures. A lot of the times people get signatures by standing outside of a grocery store, right?

1:12:05Dan Pfeiffer:Asking, can you sign this thing or knocking on someone's door? But people didn't have the ability to do that because everyone was staying inside. So then we end up getting to a place in my district in Roosevelt where we had three open seats, but only one person had actually made it on the ballot, which was just wild. So in that situation, people can now start to run as a write-in. And I didn't think anything of it. I was watching what was happening and I was hoping for the best. But what ended up happening was MAGA folks in our neighborhood said, hey, this is an easy way for us to be on this district.

1:12:41Dan Pfeiffer:So they started running as writing candidates. And at the time, they were the only ones. So we were going to end up in a place where we now had a majority MAGA district. And people started calling me. And I was ignoring their calls because I had a feeling. I had a feeling what they were going to ask. And then I started to answer. And folks kept saying, hey, we're in this moment. We need you. You're from here. You taught in the district, right? You have an education background. and I said no and I said no for a couple of weeks and it really got to a point where I was like am I going to be okay with whatever happens if I'm not there am I going to be okay with um students missing out on more resources am I going to be okay with this ideology being pushed that's also going to show our black and brown students that they don't belong in their own neighborhoods and then I said no I'm not okay with that and I finally ended up saying yes so I'm really grateful that people kept pushing me.

1:13:37Dan Pfeiffer:And we were able to do really great things. Two years in, I became the board president. So I spent my last two years actually leading the district and working on the ground with really great people. But it was hard to see myself in that position because I had never thought of it for myself. To your point, I was also 24 years old. And I did hear a lot of rhetoric around, well, young people can't do this, right? Or we need more qualified people. But I'm lucky that I had finally got to a place of, no, me being young is exactly why I am qualified, right? These are actually things that make me ready.

1:14:12Dan Pfeiffer:They're not barriers to doing the work.

1:14:15Jon Favreau:That's an amazing story. I mean, yeah, I'm sure you've noticed that a lot of the elected Democrats are super old. A lot of them pay lip service to the idea of this next generation of leaders, but it's not clear they're doing much about it. What kind of things do you think are keeping young people from running? And what do they need to get over those hurdles and take the plunge, like you did?

1:14:33Dan Pfeiffer:Yeah. You know what? I think that a lot of it is apathy. I think if you're a young person and you're looking at what's happening, you're kind of like, well, this is just how things are. And this is how things have been in a really long time. And so that may be a reason why folks don't even want to get involved, let alone running for office. I think something that young folks should remember is that if we see things as they are, as not working, it's because we're not at the table because the people who have been in office are the ones continuing to make the rules. And the conditions show that it's not changing material conditions for everyday people.

1:15:11Dan Pfeiffer:The conditions show that cost of living continues to rise and that they need fresh voices, fresh people who are ready to provide a different perspective and like really shake things up. What I hope is that young people start to see their apathy as like a superpower. I don't think apathy actually has to mean we do nothing, right? I don't think apathy means that we kind of just sit and watch things go. I think it's actually a nudge towards like, I'm not feeling it. And in order to be able to have a different outcome, I actually have to do something and investigate what is that something? Is it running for office?

1:15:47Dan Pfeiffer:Is it organizing? You know, is it joining a protest?

1:15:51Jon Favreau:That's great. I love it. Last question for you. So, you know, you've done all this work, sort of finding these candidates, recruiting them, training them, helping them succeed when they get there. Are there any like stories or people you've met that really inspired you or that, you know, I don't know, maybe open your eyes that like, about how different someone could be for running or like how just like the range of places people are coming from to run for office because of your organization.

1:16:13Dan Pfeiffer:Yeah. So many amazing people that are coming up. One person that I want to highlight that's not from this season, if you will, but has just won City Council seat. Her name is Ana Hernandez.

1:16:23Jon Favreau:I love it. This season. This season on Running for Office. Exactly.

1:16:28Dan Pfeiffer:Exactly. I think a lot about Ana Hernandez. She is someone who first ran for a state Senate seat in a very Democratic district, but she had an incumbent who had been there for a really long time. But he was very status quo. He wasn't getting things done. He wasn't holding the line on different issues. And she came in and everyone said that she had no chance of winning. And she won. And she won by a lot. And while she was there, she led the charge against the abortion fight that we were having in the state of Arizona and was able to make a ton of different change. And now she's at the city council fighting.

1:17:04Dan Pfeiffer:And she is someone who is loud. She's like super authentic. She brings her family everywhere. And I think it is just so beautiful to see. And I think so against status quo. So I mentioned her a lot. But someone I actually want to highlight who's from the VSA program. She came through the pipeline. She heard you all on the podcast and she said, oh, I'm interested. Her name is Caitlin and she is from New York now living in Arizona and has an education background and was watching what we're seeing across the country on authoritarianism and the attacks on democracy. Heard the podcast and was like, well, maybe I can do something about it.

1:17:41Dan Pfeiffer:She reached out to our team. We had several conversations with her and And she shared with us more about the district she was living in. She's in a school district where they have appointed a lot of seats. So that's a fun fact, right? People don't know that when there's not a seat, like let's say a seat goes uncontested or someone steps down from the seat, then someone else appoints that seat. And Arizona, specifically in Maricopa County, we have a county superintendent. Her name is Shelly Boggs. I don't claim her. A different Shelly. It's spelled with an on-tongue. Okay. Not a fan. Not a fan.

1:18:16Dan Pfeiffer:Yeah, mine just fell with the E-Y. But Shelly Boggs has been appointing MAGA folks to school boards all across the state. And so now she's in a district that's actually very blue, but a good chunk of her school board members representing her are MAGA red. And so once she heard the podcast and talked to us, she actually decided, yeah, I can do this and I can change my district and I can put students first. And now she's running for office and we're really excited about her.

1:18:41Jon Favreau:God, I love that story. That is such a great story. And your point about them appointing people to these seats if no one runs is why we have to run people everywhere in every election all the time, especially this year when, fingers crossed, things might go well. So, again, if you're in Arizona, you still have until March 23rd. If you want to register, go to votesaveamerica.com slash run. Shelly, where can people learn more about Instituto or Chippen to help you guys out?

1:19:06Dan Pfeiffer:Oh, that's a great question. So folks can go to instituto.io to both donate and learn more about our trainings. Everything is on that website. And from there, let's talk. Let's figure out how we can get you running and support you along the way.

1:19:20Jon Favreau:Well, Shelly, thank you for the work you're doing. Thanks for doing the show. And I hope to talk to you again soon.

1:19:24Dan Pfeiffer:Thank you so much. I appreciate it.

1:19:31Jon Favreau:That's our show for today. Thanks to Shelly Jackson for coming on. if you're interested in running in Arizona, head to votesaveamerica.com slash run to get more info. I'll be back in the feed on Sunday with a conversation with Maine Senate candidate, Graham Plattner. Bye everyone. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad-free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts. Also, please consider leaving us a review that helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production.

1:20:02Jon Favreau:Our producer is Saul Rubin Our associate producer is Farrah Safari Austin Fisher is our senior producer Reid Cherlin is our executive editor Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics The show is mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick Jordan Cantor is our sound engineer With audio support from Kyle Seglin and Charlotte Landis Matt DeGroat is our head of production Naomi Sengel is our executive assistant Thanks to our digital team Elijah Cohn, Haley Jones, Ben Hefcoat, Mia Kelman, Carol Pellaviv, David Tolles, and Ryan Young Our production staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.