Printer? I Hardly Know Her!

21:13Jon Favreau:And for the sailors on that ship and for their families and for the people who actually understand what's going on, to have your presidents like belittle your service like that, to have the Secretary of Defense just lie about the conditions you're living in. It's really messed up. And these guys can't even call home half the time for operational security reasons. They're just isolated on the ship. And it is a lie that they're telling. And we know that because the sailors and Marines have anonymously, because they don't want to get in trouble, have been complaining about this. And Tapper, Jake Tapper on CNN, was talking to the wife of one of the service members who had to listen to the president say that and listen to Hickson say that.

21:48And she was like, they can't show some empathy at all for this. She's like, just take some accountability for what's going on with your military, your ships and your war. It's your war. It's infuriating. Care packages aren't getting there in time. They can't get toiletries on the boat. It's just like it's inexcusable. And you're right. The lying is the worst part of all of it.

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24:51So the story about the Lincoln is already finding its way onto the campaign trail. Here's Senator John Ossoff talking about it and a whole lot more on Sunday. And while the sailors on the Lincoln fight his war, while he fruitlessly drains our munitions and oil reserves, the president sleeps through his meetings. He golfs and trades stocks. See, he doesn't want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace gifted by the Emir of Qatar. So Natalie, of course, refers to White House aide Natalie Harp, known as the human printer, who was chosen over several cabinet officials to join Trump in the catering cart on the way to the secret flight home.

25:44For their book, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan also got their hands on, quote, raw emotional letters that Harp had been leaving in Trump's private spaces, including one that read, quote, you are all that matters to me. Notes that reportedly alarmed the Secret Service, according to Maggie. Hoo boy. Maybe that's why they had to switch planes. Yeah. So what do you guys think of Ossoff mentioning her by name?

26:11Jon Favreau:it made news you know he's obviously like alluding to the rumor that this is more than a president staffer relationship there might be something romantic going on that he might be having an affair um it made news it went viral uh i think there's a question of whether it might kick up media coverage of these allegations now in a way that is frustrating to the white house you can tell it really really pissed off the the white house staff because steven showing the communications director put out some unhinged statement. Then the rapid John Jackoff got him, got him. Then the rapid response 47 account, which is like the White House rapid response account, went after the journalist who asked about the quote from CNN.

26:55Jon Favreau:So they are attacking everybody at the moment. This is what they they tweeted, the White House rapid response account at Kristen Holmes. Someday your children will come across your disgusting and inhumane question. They will be sickened and embarrassed to have a parent be so callous and vindictive. It's quite troubling. Boy, I'm just sad to hear that she's going to allow her kids to have so much screen time. And also, it's sort of a thrilling idea to imagine our kids having electricity. I saw like Scott Jennings doing this tweet of like, what do you say to young women working in politics? Yeah, they're trying, the MAGA people are trying to say it's sexist.

27:38Yeah, I mean, I would just say to any young woman thinking about politics, don't fuck Donald Trump as a rule. But also, and in fairness, right, we have. Not that we know that that's happening. Of course not, of course not. And just in fairness, like that's obviously the rumor that everyone's talking about. But nobody's suggesting that Trump is trying to have sex with Dan Scavino, who was also in the cart, right? Was he? Oh, yeah, yeah, Scavino. And Walt. Walt Nauta. Nauta, too. He's a co-conspirator in the Mar-a-Lago paper. So, yeah. Who knows? Or Pete Hegseth. Well, Pete Hegseth wasn't in the car.

28:10He was in the car. He was on the secret plane. He was on the secret plane. He was on the secret plane. And who knows what they're doing. Yeah. Look, the letters are, like, whatever. People want to insinuate a romantic relationship. Like, the letters are embarrassing and gross enough. The fact that she is called the human printer because she just sort of takes this dictation, the kind of worshipping praise she's heaped upon Donald Trump is really, I think, you is plenty beyond just the rumors. But I do think the amount of shit that... Scott Jennings saying, what are you going to say to young women who want to work in politics?

28:43In that press conference that we just had it on our office, just a normal day, it won't even be covered. It's so normal and expected now. He just sort of lit into a CNN reporter, stop yelling, stop talking, be quiet, just sort of directed at this woman. He is just endlessly disgusting and sexist. So like, oh, what would I, what would you say to young women because of this insinuation? Like Donald Trump is a misogynist. He's a sexist. He's disgusting. And that will be the great shame of this era for any woman associated with him, any man associated with him.

29:15Jon Favreau:He led into this, that reporter in the most condescending sexist way in front of a 16-year-old lifeguard. Yeah. Who was his guest in the office. And then turned to the lifeguard. It was like, don't you agree? I don't, don't get into it. Can you believe these people? They get it. These lifeguards get it. This kid's like, I want to go home. This is the worst. No, yeah. He's drowning in there. You don't even have to do the, like, what about how bad he is to women either on this. It's like there were, like, obviously we know why Azov included the word Natalie there. But there were, like, a million ways he could have done that that could have been fairly characterized as, like, cheap, cheesy, resist lib, blue MAGA bullshit, you know?

29:52And the point he's making is that, first of all, anyone who watched the clip, it's not like you just get Ossoff insinuating something. You get this image of Trump who is a buffoon who bungled his way into a war that we're all dealing with and paying for while he is corrupt as hell, not wanting to do his job and just hang out. And then Natalie gets inserted in that whole story. But she wrote that letter that said, you're all that matters to me. The Secret Service is alarmed. Trump himself has said, according to Maggie and Jonathan in their book, that she will never leave me. After all of you will leave at some point and go on and make money.

30:33And she loves me as much as my wife and children. And she will never leave me. When you have all that out there and he says, yeah, all he wants to do is travel with Natalie. I think that's fair. Yeah, it's reasonable. It's pretty reasonable. That's all he said. It's not not weird. It's just what are we talking about? And Matt, again, apply all those facts to Barack Obama or Joe Biden or anyone else in the White House. Yeah, Joe Biden would kill to have someone that loyal.

30:57Jon Favreau:So they're all leaking about how old he was. I'm sure Scott Jennings was very upset about allegations of infidelity about Bill Clinton or previous Democrat presidents. Right, yeah. You don't want to insinuate anything after she's leaving him notes in private spaces that say you're all that matters to me. By the way, like maybe it is just – no one of us knows. and I'm like, I don't even care that much. It's just creepy. In that case, he does just want to travel with Natalie. Yeah. Maybe he just likes having a sycophantic, pretty young woman around him all the time who sends him worshipful letters.

31:28Yeah, and he takes her on the catering cart with him. Yeah. Maybe she was hungry.

31:32Jon Favreau:Yep. There's a third plane where you just get to avoid the consequences of all your bad decisions. That's the catering cart. That's where we go. Start a war, go to plane number three. Yeah, honestly, the mistake in Ossoff's statement there was saying all they want to do is fly on the defenseless plane gifted by the emir of Qatar because that wasn't the plane they went on either. You might say that a second plane has hit the Trump administration's scandals, in a sense. You know? Yes. When you think about it. You may want to say that. You may want to say that. You may want to say that. Trump was actually asked about Ossoff's comments in the Oval on Monday, and here's how he handled it.

32:11John Ossoff said, if you'd rather travel with your aide, Natalie Hart, and build the ballroom and do your job as president? What is your response? John Alza. You mean Pee Wee Herman? Pee Wee Herman lookalike? No, I would much rather do other things. It's a, we're building a great facility here. We have President Xi coming on September 24th or so. I think it's September 24th. And we'd love to have 2 ,000 people coming to dinner and celebrating a nice evening, et cetera, et cetera. But we only have a room that's going to hold 89 people. and 89 people is not appropriate. So maybe more importantly, it's totally secure with bulletproof windows, bulletproof sides.

32:52It's drone proof. It's missile every at the top of the line. And we need it. And especially with what's happened, unfortunately, to the world, you could say. The people that are opposing the ballroom are people that, in my opinion, are very disloyal to our country, very, very disloyal to our country. You know, when I was in China, we went to the Great Hall of China. It was this big, beautiful building. And we don't have anything like that. And we have to have that. It's very important. It just went on forever. It's just amazing. President Xi's coming. What am I supposed to do? I need to make this place look nice and fit all the Chinese who come with him.

33:30And when I went there, they had this beautiful, everyone's saying wonderful things about him. And they have this great building and everything. the handsome young senator says that you're focused too much on building a space for parties and he's like that guy he reminds me of Pee Wee Herman now let's talk about some of these parties I'm thinking about having it's also it's like let me pivot from Natalie Harp to my true love the ballroom right structure you I honestly if you don't love this ballroom you don't love America hey not his best rejoinder no that's also tough because uh that's like Disapproval of the ballroom?

34:03Pretty high. That's a lot of disloyal Americans.

34:07Jon Favreau:Let's pivot to something politically damaging. We haven't talked about the ballroom construction in a while. On Friday, the Trump administration petitioned the Supreme Court to allow construction to continue after an appeals court upheld a ruling that Trump exceeded his authority by building without congressional approval. Trump's solicitor general told the court that construction is already 65 % complete. So this injunction takes effect on Friday. They've got an emergency appeal to the Supreme Court to save them. What do you guys make of this? What happens here if the court says he can't proceed?

34:39He's already got half of it built, more than half of it built.

34:42Jon Favreau:It doesn't really seem like a win for anybody, you know? Well, it's just like a hole in the wall, a hole in the ground now. Then you got to go to Congress and get it through Congress to fund it. My pitch is you never finish it and you turn it into some kind of museum of American failure. Okay. And it's just like, it's like, it's a museum of reckless stupidity and there'll be exhibits and different things. And you can go explore it kind of like a, sort of an avant-garde. General Lee at Appomattox. Yeah. It's a memorial. It's a memorial to our worst accessories. Yeah, for sure. The Knicks. We have the Nixon.

35:19We have all of Trump's impeachment.

35:20Jon Favreau:It'd be like a Quibi Conquadrant. No, for sure. Yeah. Wow. Quibi. Quibi catch you. Somewhere Jeffrey Katzenberg's like, I got a weird feeling. He's doing the audio of the tour with Quibi. Very short. It's great about the Quibi sections. You get in and out, in and out, in and out of Quibi. But something like that where you kind of never finish it and leave it as a kind of a warning to others. Like remember when they were – George R.R. Martin could do the – Yeah, yeah. This is where the seventh book of – This is where the seventh book of – Remember when there was this contest or this organization was trying to figure out how would you mark nuclear waste sites?

35:54because a thousand or many thousands of years from now, if humanity has fallen, you would need to have language and an architecture that would make people afraid, even if they were more kind of had gone backwards. And there was a quote, hold on, I want to find it. There was a line that was, we could also mark it like an old nuclear site that we're trying to protect the future humanity from. And it would just have some language that says, this place is a message and part of a system of messages, pay attention. This place is not a place of honor. No highly esteemed deed is commemorated here. Nothing valued is here.

36:25What is here was dangerous and repulsive to us. This message is a warning about danger. And we just make that what the whole vibe is of the kind of half-built ballroom. It's a very pithy message. Wow. Free pitch for a Democratic candidate in one of those first primary debates. Who's going to take it? Who's going to take it? Nothing is honored here. I do find it interesting that the whole thing started as like, I want the ballroom. That's what I want. I just want my nice, pretty ballroom. And now, because there's legal consequences potentially, he's like, actually, it's all for the military. The military needed this space.

36:59And they are apparently like, look, the underground, there's a like World War II era presidential emergency operations center. And they are, I guess, rehabbing that. And now Trump's making it sound like it's basically building a fortress around the White House where there's going to be drones protecting the White House and now all of D.C. and...

37:18Jon Favreau:But, like, couldn't the drone base be somewhere near the White House and protect it from... It's gotta be a ballroom. It has to be on the roof? That's how drones work? He also said they drilled five stories underground, which is probably something that the military didn't want him to say. Yeah, probably didn't want him to say. Yeah, probably didn't want him to say. It's also like, boy, Trump sure does care about the military, said two sailors splitting a taco for lunch. It's fucking believable. I'm very open to the idea that advances in drone technology have made the White House more at risk than before.

37:53Jon Favreau:And then maybe a tent full of world leaders on the South Lawn has more risk to it than we understand or acknowledge. But it does seem like he's sort of manufacturing all these security needs in real time. Yeah, just so he can get new drapes. I would just say also if we're at the point where we have to worry about a military scale drone swarm tackling a state dinner at the White House, a lot of things have already gone wrong. Where's our drone port? Yeah. Well, this was the UFC threat, right? That someone was going to hit the ultimate fighting event on the South Lawn with some sort of drone and the FBI broke it up.

38:28Yeah, but it's bad news. you guys see the in related corruption news the news on Friday that World Liberty Financial the Trump family and Steve Wyckoff's son's crypto venture got preliminary approval to act as a bank what do you guys think about that

38:46Jon Favreau:it made me excited that one day our tax dollars would get to bail out that bank that's exciting isn't that nice to think one day we can be a part of it that's right it's just sort of it's like Kamala doesn't have a good answer on the view 15 years later, we're bailing out World Liberty Financial. It's like, what the fucking, God damn it. Yes, Joy, I think there's many things I do differently. And then all of a sudden, whenever you're heard of World Liberty Financial. President Ossoff is like, yes, World Liberty Financial is too big to fail. Yeah. I'm not happy about it either. I didn't want to bail out the bank either.

39:20But the crypto, yeah. First president in history to approve, operate, and supervise his own bank. Another historic first for Mr. Trump. Pretty crazy. Because it's like it's one thing to launch a coin, but not everyone gets to have the federal government basically, you know, stamp that with national approval by giving it a charter. Because the OCC, which is the office that does this, that can give banks charters for the government, basically went years without receiving a single application between 2011 and 2024. So it's not like they give charters to anyone who wants to start a bank. But now they're giving one to the president's family, which will be regulated by the president's government.

40:07I don't see the problem with that. Yeah. It also just opens up the door to a lot more kinds of corruption from foreign sovereign wealth funds and all kinds of other ways in which this now allows Trump to find new and exciting ways to make money. So great job, everybody.

40:22Jon Favreau:It also does seem like a pretty big official stamp of approval on the crypto business and industry at a time when Congress is supposed to be negotiating and writing laws to actually govern these things, which doesn't make me feel great. Yeah. And I think that that timeline I mentioned 2024 was because after 2024, suddenly all the crypto ventures and all the, you know, they wanted to get they wanted to start banks, too. But, you know, who's got approved? World Liberty Financial. Yeah. I mean, so my understanding of the reason you would want this if you're the Trump family is that currently their stable coin reserves are held with a third party.

40:57Jon Favreau:So now the Trump family can issue and redeem and then hold collateral themselves and not have to pay a third party. So if you have if you have issued four billion dollars worth of USD one, which is their stable coin, you have to hold four billion dollars worth of collateral, probably in the form of treasuries that gives you interest income. And now you keep it all yourself rather than have to go through some third party. Also, it's a competitive advantage with all the other stablecoins, right? Because now if you want to do business in crypto, why not go to the use the stablecoin that's backed by the U.S.

41:30government? Because that's what this is doing now.

41:32Jon Favreau:Yeah, there's definitely an imprimatur of the U.S. government on the Trump business now. Thank you. That's the word I was grasping for earlier.

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44:08Let's do a midterm update focused on control of the Senate. Dan and I talked on Friday's show about Nate Silver's new model. He currently has the odds of the Democrats slipping the Senate at 56 % as of right now. Over the weekend, the Silver Bulletin had a piece on the seven Senate races most likely to determine control. Texas, Michigan, Maine, Iowa, Ohio, Alaska, and North Carolina. Dems need five out of those seven. and apparently they almost left North Carolina off that list because the model is quite confident that Roy Cooper will flip that state and even more confident that Ossoff will win in Georgia, which is why it wasn't on the list.

44:42Wild. Wild is that confident about Georgia. We're going to zero in on developments in Texas, Michigan, and Alaska today. But before we do, anything stand out to you guys in the analysis of the other Senate races? The one thing just overall is how the models have to like how scandals and other kind of individual factors of a race matter less as polarization and party line and the sort of partisan voting becomes more and more what defines kind of the outcomes because it tells you that as much as you're hoping that fundamentals kick in in some places right if they kick in too hard say in michigan to kind of get abdul over then you have to worry about what's happening in texas you have to worry about what's happening in alaska right And so that was sort of my takeaway from it.

45:31And the other was just you look across this, oh, what's the pivot going to be? And you think about the difference between 2006 and 2018, both years where there was somewhere like an eight-ish swing towards Democrats or eight-point lead by Democrats. And because of the map and because of luck, we lose the Senate in 2018 or we don't gain the Senate in 2018. We lose seats. And then in 2006, we actually managed to eke out a victory in the Senate, not because we did so much better in a bunch of different races, but because in three or four races, Montana, Missouri, Virginia, we won by 10 ,000, 40 ,000, just a small, small margin.

46:11And because all of those happened to tip right at the end, just over the line, the whole direction of the country changes. That was what I was sort of panicking, getting anxious about as I was looking at the numbers. Yeah.

46:24Jon Favreau:I mean, I was getting anxious looking at them because they are more bullish than I sort of feel emotionally. Like Nate has Democrats winning Ohio at a 62 % probability. That's surprised me. Very bullish on Ohio and Texas. Very bullish on Texas. He has Maine at 70%. Michigan at 68%. Now, look, I think we can pull out Michigan and it's a state we should win. But I do think like it's going to be a battle. I guess I was just sort of surprised at how lopsided some of these numbers seem. I was surprised on the flip side of that, how they are bearish, more bearish on Iowa and Alaska than I would have expected.

47:00Iowa, they have 44 % for Democrats to win and Alaska at 42%. So they were bigger underdogs, those two, than I thought. And also, you know, I look at this lesson, I think, for everyone listening. Like if you're looking for, you know, where do I donate and where do I want to volunteer and which races should, you know. they go down the list at the end and they're like well there's a couple other races that are you know getting a lot of attention but florida where you know democrats are according to the polls like maybe up a couple points but um just the fundamentals and the model and everything else just make it seem like there's there's not a great chance in florida like it's a quite a long shot and then even more of a long shot nebraska which was sort of a surprising uh to me as well and Kansas.

47:49People have been talking about Kansas recently. And then, of course, like, you know, we've talked about races in Mississippi and South Carolina and stuff like that. And those just aren't on the radar at all. So, you know, if you want to pay attention and help out in a Senate race, those seven tend to be the big ones. So Texas is the most likely tipping point state in the model, meaning that it's the state most likely to determine control of the Senate. Right now, silver has the odds of Tallarico winning at 59%. One big reason is that Ken Paxton is an awful candidate. And sure enough, Tallarico is out with a new ad where he's endorsed by the guy whose$1 ,000 pen was once stolen by Ken Paxton.

48:30Let's watch. This is Ken Paxton. And this is Ken Paxton stealing someone's$1 ,000 pen. Here's what happened. The incident happened at the Collin County Courthouse, the same courthouse where Paxton would later be indicted for investment fraud. Paxton walked up to the trays next to the metal detectors, rummaged through them, and came across someone else's expensive Montblanc pen. He decided to take it for himself. The pen belonged to Joe Joplin, a local attorney who'd accidentally left him behind. It was a special gift from his wife. When Joe realized it was missing, he contacted courthouse security.

49:04This is the footage they pulled. Ken Paxton, on camera, stealing this man's pen. After the police got involved, Joe got his pen back. He could have pressed charges, but he decided against it because Joe's a nice guy. He'd never take someone else's pen, but he also hasn't forgotten who took his. Hi, I'm Joe Joplin, and I endorse James Tallarico for the United States Senate. Vote for James Tallarico. He won't steal your pen. Paxson response ad, finders keepers. That trans-loving Jesus freak wouldn't steal a fucking thing.

49:40Jon Favreau:I would just note that I also think you should go to jail for having a$1 ,000 pen. I was going to say, yeah, you're not exactly. I noticed why they didn't put the cost of the pen in the ad because it doesn't exactly help our friend Joe. Maybe it writes beautifully. It's crazy. Maybe it has a beautiful feel. I've never written with a$1 ,000 pen before. I think that's a great ad because obviously on the list of Paxton scandals, this one is the lowest in terms of the impact or the consequences. But it's a fun story that can go viral. I think they did a really good job telling it there. Yeah. I mean, midway through, just reminding everybody that he was indicted for fraud.

50:14He is—somebody was—I think maybe it was like Josh Barrow or someone made this point that it is shocking how in every aspect of his life he seems to be a prick or a sleaze, just without exception. His wife of many years is a state senator, leaving him on biblical grounds because of this affair he had. His people that worked with him were whistleblowers. They believed he was taking bribes. He was impeached in a bipartisan way, but not removed. He's only gotten the nomination because Trump didn't like John Cornyn and sided with Ken Paxton as a fuck you to John Cornyn. but even Republicans in Texas would obviously have preferred someone more electable.

50:57He also just not a great fundraiser. He just seems like a shitty fucking guy that nobody likes. And it puts Texas in play. Including Republicans. Including Republicans. Just seems like a fucking asshole. Well, in Nate's model, the fundamentals put Texas at R plus 3.4. So even with the huge shift towards Democrats, it's still more of a Republican-leaning state. But Tallarico's ahead in the polls by 1.9 average right now. And the reason that they have it as a toss-up, but it's almost at lean D, is just because Tallarico is a good candidate. And also, Paxson is such a bad candidate and has all these scandals.

51:34And also, Tallarico has raised an ungodly amount of money. Ken Paxson, he's also not a prolific fundraiser.

51:39Jon Favreau:Tallarico has raised$65 million to Paxson's$9 billion. What I didn't realize until I read Nate's piece is that Beto O 'Rourke had trailed in every single poll against Ted Cruz. What were we thinking? And Tallarico, Beto's great. No, I know. I mean, like we were also I was excited. I thought he could win. The Tallarico is leading Paxton by, as you said, 1.9 percent in the polling average. It's pretty good. I mean, I think I imagine all of these races are going to tighten because they just always do when people pay attention. But 2026 is a very blue year and Paxton is a very bad candidate. Ted Cruz was able to eke out a win against Beto, not because Beto didn't get the votes he thought he was going to get, but they were surprised by the turnout of Republicans.

52:19And we don't like Ted Cruz, but Republicans like Ted Cruz. and Ken Paxton is sort of just a different animal. It's a worse environment. It remains to be seen if it's a worse overall national political environment. But certainly in Texas, Ken Paxton is just not nearly as good a candidate as a beloved charismatic figure, Ted Cruz. Yeah, and I also think Trump's approval was fairly bad in 2018 at the time, but you didn't have the economic approval as low as it is right now. So I think that is the tailwind that I think that Beto did not get in 2018, that Tallarico probably is. We haven't really talked about Alaska, where Mary Peltola is trying to unseat Dan Sullivan.

53:00Last week, Kamala Harris signed a fundraising email for Peltola urging people to donate. And then Peltola's campaign basically rejected it, saying, quote, Mary isn't seeking endorsements from anyone from the lower 48. Her focus is and always will be Alaska. Adding to the intrigue, someone leaked to internet journalist Yashar Ali. presumably someone from Harris's camp, that actually it was Peltola's campaign that asked Harris's political operation to send a fundraising email. Peltola is pretty close to Sullivan in the polling, but still an underdog overall. Who do you guys believe here? And what does it say that the Peltola campaign rejected Kamala's endorsement, at least publicly?

53:37Jon Favreau:I mean, I think it shows that they just don't want to nationalize this race in any way, shape or form, that the National Democratic Party brand is toxic. The entire debate about the Democratic ticket in 2024 is politically toxic, and they want nothing to do with it, which makes me surprised that anyone on her campaign would ask Kamala Harris to send a fundraising email on her behalf, especially one where the funds were split 50-50 between Kamala's PAC and Peltola's campaign. Now, I could be wrong. What do I know? But, you know, Peltola is running an entirely Alaska-focused campaign where she's, like, talking about salmon fishing and local stuff.

54:15Jon Favreau:I don't know. I think she would want to nationalize it. Yeah, who knows? I can see there being like, oh, this is an opportunity. Kamala Harris is going to get us, is going to raise money for us. Maybe one part of the campaign not talking to another part of the campaign. Maybe people don't know. That seems like the most. Right, and also maybe like when you actually read the email, it's just like it wasn't meant to be something that was so clear, like we're together splitting the money 50-50 so it ends up looking worse. Or maybe it was fully authorized, But then by the time it gets to the candidate, they realize it's a mistake.

54:43They want to denounce it. But to me is sort of you look at this and Mary Paltola has clearly decided that this email and this connection is a liability. So we're going to deny it and say we don't want any endorsements for the lower 48. And whoever is inside Kamala's org, assuming that that's where that came from, cared more about kind of whatever, claiming it was authorized than doing what clearly the Alaska campaign thinks it's best for itself, which is to get out of this. it seems like it'd be more benefit for Peltola, for Kamala Harris to say, I would never raise money for that woman. She's too moderate.

55:16Too much of a, too much. Too focused on jobs. Yeah, too much. She wants to bring people together too much. And you know what else? I hate fish. Yeah, that's exactly right. Yeah, it's a weird one. Also, like Mary Peltola didn't endorse Kamala in 2024. Because it's just like, it's Alaska. Unsung part of the uncommitted movement. Again, it's, yeah. Yeah. So, right. She has to outrun like – Donald Trump won the state by what? 13, 14 points? It's an uphill climb. So she has to really reject the National Democratic Party. America has got to be far away and quiet. Yeah.

55:52Jon Favreau:And like she has run really successfully statewide in Alaska before. There's something called a split ticket war score which sort of like rates your candidate quality, your ability to outperform the ticket. And she was like D plus 9 and D plus 22 in her house runs. Yeah, so she's very successfully separated herself from the National Party's struggles and won. Finally, we were in the middle of recording Friday's episode when Fox News dropped their Michigan poll, which has Mike Rogers ahead of Abdul El-Sayed by four points, 51-47. Same poll has Democrat Jocelyn Benson up five points in the Michigan governor's race.

56:29The Senate Democratic Super PAC then released an internal poll that shows Abdul ahead by six. But, of course, that didn't exactly calm the waters. What do you guys think about where the race is and what Abdul has to do over the next few months? So, first of all— Probably get more votes, right? Yeah, you should probably get more votes. I mean, look, it's hard— Than the other guy? What do they have to do? Yeah, it's hard to—you know, first of all, it's hard to trust any of these polls because we just saw an outcome in which Abdul won by a point and the polls had him up by much more overall. Like, it's hard—it's just hard to know.

57:02So the one thing that was interesting from I think it was the Fox poll is that there was just a bigger group of people that were voting for Mike Rogers for Senate and the Democratic governor candidate than the reverse. And so regardless of whether whether, you know, you think the poll is exaggerating and what doesn't like that to me, I think is interesting and instructive about what he has to do. because it's clearly people that either because of what Abdul has said in the past, because the state was blanketed in tens of millions of dollars in anti-Abdul advertising, whatever it may be, there's a lot of people that should be voting with the Democrats and would be if they hadn't been sort of exposed to so much anti-Abdul messaging.

57:43And so what does he have to do to bring those people along? How does he address some of the things that Mike Rogers is going to be advertising, whether or not AIPAC puts more money into the state? Like there's going to be a lot that he has to go up against. And one thing I just noticed about sort of some of the ways in which he's responded to this is, you know, he's under so much incoming. You know, a bunch of different Democrats have been asked, like, well, how do you explain for what you said in the past? And I think often the reaction is to kind of argue with the person asking the question.

58:14And they all do. All the politicians do this. They sort of are like, well, I actually didn't mean to fund. I meant that we should look at where the money's going as a version of something Abdul said in the past and others have too. But you look at what I think some of the more effective ways of answering that kind of question. Mamdani had an incredible one, I think, on Friday or late last week where the question is, do you think Woke One was crazy? He basically just ignores that. And he says, we all change and we all grow. I have said things I don't agree with anymore, but I believe in supporting the police and having a good relationship with the police.

58:46And we're getting crime down and we're addressing these issues. And like what was to me what he's doing, what makes him such a good politician is he's saying he's not he's he's answering the feeling underneath the question, which is what is the reassurance on this issue that gives me credibility across another a range of issues as opposed to constantly fighting to a draw by answering the previous critique or sort of trying to win on points. but rather saying something that is like a value statement that rejects the factual statement you said in the past, right? Just like a clean moral thing that resets what he currently believes and stands for.

59:23Jon Favreau:I think Abdul's like kind of core primary message is still the right one. It was get money out of politics, put money in your pocket and pass Medicare for all. That's a great general election message. You just have to stick to that. But obviously, the primary against Taylor Stevens became more about U.S. support for Israel and APAC funding and dark money generally. And I think trying to move away from that would be beneficial. You know, Abdul, he's going to have to try to find some kind of like white working class independent voters that maybe have voted for Republicans in the past. He's got to turn out black voters and Democratic base voters they didn't necessarily get in the primary.

59:59Jon Favreau:So he's got to do two different things at once, reach the base community and reach these sort of more moderate swing voters. I think he's got the political skills to do that. He's an exciting, dynamic guy. He's good on the stump. He can raise a lot of money. He's got like a lot of skills. And Mike Rogers is kind of like a washed up old Intel committee guy who would rather be in Florida seemingly than in Michigan running this race. But I think we need to treat it as a 50-50 race. I think this is going to be a close one to the bitter end. Yeah, the poll doesn't surprise me that much, only because I think$60 million of negative ads against you.

1:00:38And then Mike Rogers has none of that. And people mostly remember him as a sort of old school establishment, pre-Trump Republican. And obviously like Alyssa Slotkin ran a great race against him in 24. But I think the image of Mike Rogers they have in their head is like, okay, maybe I don't agree with him, but he doesn't seem threatening. and$60 million in negative ads, making Abdul seem like a scary Muslim socialist extremist who's going to come, you know, kill your family is, you know, that's the kind of poll result you're going to get. I also think that, you know, there's work he has to do with black voters and you can see in this poll.

1:01:18And then the voters that, Tommy, you were just talking about. And like, look, if he just goes to all these voters who say they're going to vote for Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, just has to convince those voters to like, hey, you're already voting for one Democrat, vote for another. And I think that some of his ads, and you see this online, he's had some, even in the primary, he had some sort of cringey, millennial cringe videos that I was like, oh, what is that? But I think the point is to make him seem unthreatening to people, which they are going to try to make him seem as threatening as possible because of his name and religion, as they're already doing, and that's going to happen right up until Election Day.

1:01:54And so to try to address that just by, you know, showing up everywhere and being who he is and seeming unthreatening is going to be helpful. I do think having made it through the primary, whether all these attacks come out ahead has also given him a lot of credibility. And, you know, by the same token that there are these crossover voters that show where a liability is, what a poll like this won't show is there are going to be people that are brought into that are going to kind of decide to vote, maybe be excited and energized to participate because of Abdul. And then those are Democratic votes that are going to go down the ticket, right?

1:02:29And those will be people he brought into the process that won't show up in the same kind of way. And so I do think he has that kind of credibility with the people that came along. And so that does give him the space, I think, to kind of figure out how to kind of whatever, overcome that kind of scary Muslim thing that they're going to throw at him over the next couple of months. I mean, he doesn't have to change his views on things, but he can certainly moderate rhetoric to sort of appeal to a broader audience. That's all. Yeah. Like, I don't, of course, I don't think it's any, it's not about changing what he views.

1:03:00I think like that is, but there is like, I think, honestly, it's because if people, if he can just have that conversation, which is the Abdul we know, like that will work. Like he is even like the sort of, they're calling him a socialist, which they'll call anyone a socialist, but he pointedly in interviews, like, I don't identify as a socialist. Like he believed like like there's just the version of him that existed in the ads is not the version of him that is real. And now we have three or four months for him to actually put that in place.

1:03:23Jon Favreau:It's very funny that in the primary they made these kind of cringy blues clues, goofy videos where Abdul just seems silly and all this sort of like winced at them at the time. And then Republican accounts like libs of TikTok found them last week and started resurfacing them and be like, oh, my God, have you seen this? how cringy and it's like you could not do a better job if you tried to target these ads to the audience they're trying to reach it's like republicans and sort of like conservative audiences who now see this goofy silly side of abdul as they are trying to paint him as this dangerous radical fringe candidate it's very very um hilarious that they were this stupid about their tactics on the republican side the campaign also gets by that first ad out is that of the grandparents.

1:04:06They understand this. All right. When we come back, Tommy talks to Ohio House candidate Brian Poindexter.

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1:07:25Jon Favreau:My guest today is the Democratic Party's candidate for Ohio's 7th Congressional District. Brian Poindexter, welcome to the show. Thank you for having me, Tommy. I'm happy to be here and looking forward to answering your questions. All right. Well, glad to have you. So your opponent, Max Miller, has made a lot of news lately for the worst reasons. I'm going to ask you about him in a minute. But first, tell the audience about yourself, your background, and why you decided to get into this race. Well, yeah. I'm just a regular everyday average working guy. I've been a member of the Ironworkers Local 17 for the past 19 years where we've built some of the tall buildings and bridges and schools and hospitals in the Cleveland area.

1:08:05I've been a nine-year member of Brook Park City Council, you know, where I showed up and fought for people at the local level, built a reputation of being and somebody who shows up when they need me the most. But more importantly, I've been a father of two daughters, and I have a bonus daughter. I've been helping raise them up to be strong, independent, loving, caring women. And that's kind of where I got – that's the most prideful thing about me is I'm a good family man and take care of my family to the best of my ability. And, yeah, that's me in a nutshell.

1:08:42Jon Favreau:Did you help build this new Brown Stadium? and do we feel okay about them moving out of downtown? Well, I actually worked a little bit on the old stadium in 2014 when we redid the scoreboards. I was on that. That was a good job. It was like tailgating every day for work. That's awesome. Any Sunday job site visits? You just got to be there? Yeah, it was like Sunday every day because we were on seven days a week doing 12 to 14-hour days to get it done before the season started. So a lot of hard work went into it, But it was it was a little easier being that we were, you know, building the Brown Stadium.

1:09:18Yeah, that's the news. The new stadium is underway now. It's just now getting started. They're still doing underground work and stuff like that. So I haven't we haven't seen anything come out of the ground yet. Got it. Got it. Got it.

1:09:29Jon Favreau:So your opponent, Max Miller, Congressman Max Miller, he's been accused of some awful stuff, throwing scalding hot water at his ex-wife, holding a gun to her head, fracturing their two year old daughter's collarbone. But despite all of that, he's refused to get out of the race and he's instead decided to start attacking his father-in-law, Senator Bernie Moreno, Ohio Senator Bernie Moreno, on social media. What's your reaction to these charges and the way Max Miller has responded to them? Well, yeah, they're very serious allegations. And I've said it since day one. If they prove to be true, he shouldn't be in Congress.

1:10:05He should be in jail. And I stand by that statement. The folks I talk to all across this district, whether it's knocking the doors, doing the town halls, I get asked about it a lot. One of the things that is most troubling is him withholding the blue bunny from his daughter. That's personal to me because my youngest daughter, Ashley, she had Bear Bear growing up. I remember going on vacation one time. We had to turn back around and get Bear Bear because she forgot Bear Bear at the house. So I had turned around, got Bear Bear, and then we were okay to go on vacation. But I just know how personal connections children make with their security blanket or their stuffed animal.

1:10:50And it just shows the kind of leverage Max Miller holds over people he loves. And if he does that to people he loves, imagine what he does to people he don't really like or don't understand. Yeah. And that that kind of behavior has no place in Congress.

1:11:07Jon Favreau:Yeah. My daughter has two little pink bunnies that she calls her loveys. And one time I thought I might have dropped one at the airport and lost it. And you would have thought my reaction was basically like I'd lost a child. It was like fucking Defcon five in our house. We were scrambling for this thing. Thank God we finally found it like under a blanket or in a pillow or something. But you're right. I mean, it does show a level of vindictiveness that is shocking to me as a father. I would do literally anything to ensure my daughter felt comfortable, felt safe, had a good night's sleep. The idea that he would need to give the bunny over to only the court appointed like minder guy that he wouldn't give it to someone else who he deemed a stranger.

1:11:47Jon Favreau:We know all this, by the way, because he released a text message where, you know, he had had this conversation with someone. I don't know if it was Senator Bernie Moreno or like, you know, someone who had been dispatched by Senator Moreno to have this conversation with Max Miller. But Max Miller thought that the text messages he released, like, showed his side of the story, but really just showed him being a sociopath. Yeah, I mean, I'm no therapist or psychologist. You know, psychologists, I wouldn't be able to diagnose them as that. But but I know as a father, I would do whatever I had to do to make sure my baby had her bear bear.

1:12:25I don't care who I had to give it to to make sure she got it.

1:12:27Jon Favreau:Yeah. Same. So I know that, you know, as you know, probably better than anybody, like the hardest thing about politics is most normal people just don't have time to read up on it. Right. They're busy, like getting the kids to school or going to work or doing whatever. They don't seek out political news. So when you're trying to help voters understand kind of the stakes in an election or understand about a candidate, it takes a lot to kind of get something to break through. Has this story about Max Miller, the allegations against him, has this broken through to voters in your district? I ask in part because there was like, I think, a Washington Post story or something that suggested that most voters they talk to as they kind of walk the streets hadn't heard about it.

1:13:07Well, yeah, you know, a lot of people are tuned out from politics because, you know, So politicians haven't given them anything to pay attention to, especially when you consider the fact that most working people, especially the hardworking families of this district, are doing everything they can just to make ends meet. You know, they're working, you know, two or three jobs in some cases. They are working overtime just to just to get by. And, you know, workers used to work and live paycheck to paycheck. Now they're not even making it to the next paycheck. So, yeah, it's it's it's understandable.

1:13:37I mean, I understand why people would tune out because they got more important things in their life to worry about. But what I hope they would do is lift their head up just for a second, pay attention to what's going on in this race, and support somebody like me who understands what they're going through because I actually live what they're going through, and put somebody in Washington who's going to fight to make sure that they can make that next paycheck, ensure that they can start building a life and start realizing the American dream that politicians have taken from us.

1:14:11Jon Favreau:Yeah. I mean, I've seen a lot of interviews you've done. I've read a lot of stuff, a lot of interviews you've given. I think you do a really admirable job of trying to refocus the conversation on issues and the economy and the stuff that voters actually care about and that makes a difference in their lives. And I think that's important. I really do respect that. I do think that there's also a kind of a threshold question about character from our elected officials that's very important. And I'm wondering how you view that in this context. Like, is an allegation like those that Max Miller's facing, is that a place where we should draw a line as a country and just say, no, like this guy should not serve in Congress?

1:14:47Jon Favreau:Or how are you thinking about that? Well, yeah, I mean, we've seen politicians be accused of all sorts of things over the past, you know, few years, especially as it seems like it's ramped up with with character issues with politicians. But I think it's, it's really a test of, of the American public, what we're willing to accept from our representatives. And to me, I think it's, it should be a uniting factor. I think, I think Democrats, Republicans and independents can come together and, and set the bar of what we expect from, from politicians. You know, not saying that anybody has to be perfect, you know, certainly I'm not perfect.

1:15:24I've had mistakes in my younger years and stuff like that. But what is the bar that we're going to set of what we can expect from our leaders? And I think this is an opportunity to unite people. That's what my goal is. My main goal in this run is to really unite our district through the party divide, through the political differences in political spectrum to get people to understand that we have more that unites us than divides us. And when we put aside some of the political differences and come together, there's strength there. And that's what I hope to bring. And I hope people heed the call and say, hey, we cannot accept politicians who aren't going to live by at least a minimum standard of ethics.

1:16:16Yeah, and decency.

1:16:18Jon Favreau:So back on the issues, I mean, Trump ran on the promise basically that he would get cost down and get inflation under control. That was kind of the core promise of his campaign. Instead, gas prices are up. They've been up for a while. Tariffs are making things more expensive. And then I know in Ohio, you've got people leaving the state because they can't find good jobs. Trump won your district by 11 points in 2024, I think. Have you been able to talk to some of those Trump voters? And do you find them receptive to the argument that maybe they made a mistake by voting for him and that Trump has made things work and that, you know, they might be open to voting for a Democrat this time to kind of correct that?

1:16:56Yeah, I'm not I'm not afraid to talk to anybody. You know, I've talked to people who voted for Trump in the past, people who voted for Biden and everybody in between, you know, not afraid to have those conversations. You know, to me, it's not it's not about a Republican and Democrat issue. It's worker to worker issue. and Trump was able to capture the attention of the worker. You know, this district is a very strong working class district. It's a gerrymandered district, but the one thing that unites the whole district is the fact that everyone works hard for a living. And, you know, Trump captured that message.

1:17:32He said he's going to bring back manufacturing. He's going to usher in a golden age for workers. And what we got was a golden shower instead. You know, people are working harder and harder. We're getting less and less. And this district also, too, in 2018, like Sherrod Brown would have won this district when he ran for Senate in 2018. And it's because Sherrod Brown has always run on the message of Fighting for Workers. Now, his record, Fighting for Workers, it's backed up by real results. Me, as a member of Ironworkers Local 17, the legislation he brought forward actually saved our pension from default, along with the Teamsters.

1:18:10And so many other things that he fought for actually came to bring real value to workers' lives in Ohio. And that's what I'm running on. I'm running because working families haven't realized that golden age. And, you know, Wall Street's doing great. The billionaires are doing great. Corporations are doing great. But when does it trickle down to the rest of us? When do I get value for the labor that I'm putting in and I'm putting in more and more and more value? And that's what everybody across the district is asking. That's what I'm hearing at the doors. You know, people working, again, two or three or four jobs in a household just to make ends meet.

1:18:51And people are fed up on it.

1:18:53Jon Favreau:Yeah. You said that that golden showers trickling down just forever. You've argued that I saw you in an interview talking about why Democrats have struggled so much with male voters winning over men. And you argue that culture and not policy is kind of at the root of it. Can you expand on that and explain what you're thinking? Yeah, well, like, I mean, the Democratic Party has always stood up for workers. But over the past few cycles, especially that that message of fighting for work and families kind of got put on the back burner. And, you know, it was almost like they were more, you know, the Democratic Party is a big tent.

1:19:31Right. We have a lot of different ideals and perspectives, which is good. I think the more people we bring in to the fold, more ideas, we can find the right idea. But I think they were highlighting some of the issues that were kind of more fringe and more important issues that need to be discussed, but shouldn't be the forefront core of the message. The forefront core of the message should be the most expansive, the one that includes the most people. And I think workers' issues, that covers everybody. You know, I don't care if what lifestyle you live, you have to work for a living and that work should have value.

1:20:07That should be our core message. And if people and the way I see it, if people are making progress in their personal lives, then they have the resources and energy they can use to fight for some of those other more more fringe issues.

1:20:24Jon Favreau:You mentioned earlier in the interview, and you've talked about it in the past, sort of having what you call a rough and rowdy upbringing, some brushes with the law when you were younger in your early 20s. What happened? And like, what do you think, what did that experience teach you that has been valuable in later life? Yeah, I grew up on the west side of Cleveland. It was a pretty rough neighborhood. So, you know, I mean, it was nothing for a couple of dudes to get in a scrap at a basketball game or somebody drive down the street looking at you wrong. they hop out of the car and next, you know, you're throwing down.

1:20:55It's, it was, um, it was a unique situation growing up. Um, and then, you know, grow going into adulthood, that was my environment. I brought that into adulthood. I learned quickly that, uh, that wasn't the way, um, you know, and I had some, I had some run-ins with the law. I made mistakes. Um, I owned the mistakes. I didn't blame somebody else or sue somebody in the silence over it. Um, and then I, I, I paid my price for it. and I moved on and learned from it. And I want to point out that this was very early in my adulthood, from 18 to 22 years old. And then I had a child, and that kind of changed everything.

1:21:35No longer was I the rough and rowdy guy, just worried about me and myself. I had to worry about a family, and I had to worry about building a life for my daughter, and then I had another daughter. To come full circle, the past five years as an ironworker, I've been able to teach the new ironworkers coming in and, you know, find those rough and rowdy ironworkers that were kind of like me when I was that age, kind of help them develop their skills as an ironworker, but also make good decisions so they weren't getting, you know, having the issues that I had when I was younger.

1:22:10Jon Favreau:Yeah, well, listen, if you didn't want to beat up a Steelers fan at a game in your early 20s, like, were you even a fan? I mean, look, as a Patriots fan, we've all been there. You know, was it a yinzer? Yeah. Because, you know, they're tough. I wouldn't fuck around with those guys. I'm not proud of it, let's just say. I've made some mistakes. Listen. You know, now when I go to a game, I just watch the game and mind my own business now. Yeah, no, trust me, me too. I remember being at my first ever Red Sox game when I was like a kid, and there was a huge rumble in the outfield right next to us. And I was like, you know, 12 or 13.

1:22:43Jon Favreau:And it looked like Hulk Hogan was getting in a fight with some other massive dude. I was like, all right, never. Not for me. I would not fare well there. You know, I grew up in Cleveland. Don't Google 10-cent beer night. Yes. You'll see what I grew up with. Yeah, it gets wild in Cleveland. Speaking of Cleveland, who are the Browns going to start a quarterback this year? Is it going to be Deshaun, Shadour, maybe bring Joe Flacco back? What are you thinking? I don't know what they're going to decide. If it were me, if I were making that decision, I would keep developing Shadour. I think he's got a bright future if he gets the reps.

1:23:18I think it gives our offense a little bit more fluidity as he played a little last year. But time will tell. I'm not very hopeful for this season, but I hope it shocked me. Come on. Normally, I'm like, this is our year of Super Bowl, but I don't have that feeling this year.

1:23:35Jon Favreau:You guys have Tampa week two. You got to see Baker Mayfield come out of that tunnel on the other side. That's got to be like seeing an ex who lost a bunch of weight, got a tan, looking great, made a lot of money somehow. That's rough. Yeah, I wish Baker would have never went anywhere personally, but I understand the business of the NFL. I'm proud that Baker Mayfield is doing well. But I really just hope our Browns do well and beat Baker Mayfield in week two. This time next year, do you think, you know, maybe we got Baker back on the team? Are we talking about developing Arch Manning? How's this going to go?

1:24:10Man, this is a tougher interview than I thought. If you're asking me to, like, I got to solve the District 7 problems and the Browns problems.

1:24:18Jon Favreau:I'm in a little hurt here. Yeah, you're qualified to be GM. Last question. So we talked about earlier, I mean, the Browns are about to move to a new stadium with a dome. Does that make you sad at all? You lose those like late season kind of Lake Erie snow games? You know, I've been to a lot of snow games. Like the last great one was, what was it? Not last year, the year before last against Pittsburgh. We beat them. It was a blizzard. It was a Thursday night game. Yeah. Great time. But like, no, I'm all about the stadium. You know, one, it's in Brook Park. I'm a city councilman in Brook Park, so to bring the Browns in Brook Park is huge for our area.

1:24:57I'm an iron worker, so building stadiums and buildings is kind of my thing. But really what I like about the Dome more than the open lakefront stadium is that lifelong fan who's maybe 60s or 70s, can't sit out in the cold anymore. They'll be comfortable the whole game. or that young family bringing their son or daughter for their first game. I took my daughters down on the lake, and I remember good games that they wanted to leave partway through the second quarter because they're freezing and they're cold and it's rainy. So I think it'll be good. It'll keep people in the stadium even when the Browns are 2-13 or whatever.

1:25:39It'll keep them in the seats and keep somebody who will still want to go because it's a more comfortable experience. And, you know, let's keep in mind, too, fantasy football is kind of a real thing. And I hate when my receiver goes up in an ice bowl game and now he gets me three points.

1:25:57Jon Favreau:Yeah, no, I get that. Listen, I went to the Patriots-Broncos game in Denver last year, that, like, snow whiteout game. And it was one of the coolest experiences I've ever had in terms of a sports fan, but it was so cold. And it's, like, a lot of layers to keep us there. And I get, you know, once you guys have a dome, Maybe you get the Super Bowl in Cleveland. You get all sorts of year-round opportunities for events and shit like that that's big economically. Brian Poindexter, thanks for joining the show. Where can folks find your campaign and help out if they want? Yeah, thanks for having me. People can go to poindexterforcongress.com.

1:26:32You can hear a little bit about my backstory. You can watch our videos and really get a sense of who I am. I'm really just the guy next door who decided that I'm tired of watching my community have such a hard time and I'm going to run and fight hard for working families

1:26:48Jon Favreau:we appreciate you joining and everyone check out the campaign and we'll talk to you soon thank you, thank you very much for having me and great to be here

1:27:02that's our show for today thanks to Brian Poindexter for coming on Dan and I will be back with a new show on Friday Pods of America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Farrah Safari with Ree Cherlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hethcote, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kirill Pellaviv, David Tolles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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