The Primaries Will Continue Until Morale Improves

21:37We have won. The mission is like, not just mission accomplished, like, oops, there was a banner behind Bush. This was like every day they're saying that their military is destroyed, decimated. We control the skies. We control the skies. The strait is open. And also for nothing. The stated objectives, like they haven't done, they haven't achieved anything. They didn't destroy the regime. They didn't get the, they didn't make any progress on their nuclear program. They didn't destroy their ballistic missile programs. They didn't destroy the proxies.

22:05Jon Favreau:Yeah. I think we're in a situation where it, it, it feels frustrating and unsatisfying because they don't care about getting caught in those lies by the mainstream press the way every other president in history has. But when you look at the polling, like this is the most unpopular war in modern American history. It's going to get worse as gas prices tick back up. And there's just no endgame here. Like the Iranians want to control the Strait of Hormuz. Trump can't let that happen. How do you sort that out? And you want to talk about the Houthis now and what they announced there's a blockade of Saudi Arabia?

22:37Jon Favreau:Yeah. So the Houthis, So back in 2015, the Saudis launched this disastrous war on the Houthi rebels in Yemen. Hundreds of thousands of people died because of it, mostly because of famine. In 2022, they announced a ceasefire and then some peace talks. So Ben and I were talking about last week, this kind of fragile ceasefire kind of erupted because the Saudis bombed the Sanaa airport. I think they were trying to stop an IRGC plane from landing back in Yemen that had been at the Supreme Leader's funeral in Yemen. We were kind of like, uh-oh, that's ominous. Like, why are we kicking back up this conflict?

23:06Jon Favreau:And so today, on Monday, the Houthis announced that they're going to embargo Saudi ships in the Red Sea via the Babel Mandib Strait. So that's the choke point out of the Red Sea to the east where a lot of oil and gas flows. And so I don't know how this would work or how they would implement it. But if you have the Strait of Hormuz closed and then access to the Red Sea shut off, that chokes off like another 5 % of the world's oil and reformed petroleum products that pass through that strait. And so the Saudis, the way the Saudis have been getting around the Strait of Hormuz being shut is they have a pipeline that goes west and south and they've been pumping oil and gas out and getting it out through the Red Sea.

23:43Jon Favreau:If they can no longer do that, it's a huge reduction in supply. At the same time, you have the Russians, Russian oil refinery capacity has been cut in half to the Ukrainian strikes. You have all the oil reserves depleted because of the war, because we all just spent it down to try to keep costs low. And then China had been limiting imports during the conflict. Now they're ramping them back up. So you could really see a serious supply shock in price increase. So one to watch. I mean, maybe the Houthis are not actually going to go through with this, and they'll try to calm things down with the Saudis.

24:14Jon Favreau:But this is kind of like the nightmare scenario in terms of energy prices. And oil went over$90 a barrel briefly over the weekend. It's now in the 80s. But gas is up to$4 a gallon again. And this is right at the beginning of this new phase of the war. And the Houthis don't have to completely control this waterway to create a bunch of fear and force ships to either delay, go around, raise the cost of insurance, what have you. Right. And, you know, having Iran and Iranian proxies in charge of these two choke points through a quarter or more of the world oil goes through is really sort of once again showing how much more powerful Iran has gotten because of this conflict.

25:00Even the language the Houthis used was just basically, well, this is Trump is doing a blockade on a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. We're going to do a blockade on a blockade on this side, too. That's just how it goes. Meanwhile, the Republican Congress has done absolutely nothing to rein him in on this. You have a few voted for like a war powers resolution and that's about it. And now, you know, they have a week before they all go on break until mid-September. And the House is trying to pass the NDAA, also the supplemental, extra like billions and billions and billions of dollars more, which is just absolutely fucking crazy.

25:34Nuts. Billions of dollars. So ICE is back in the news for all the wrong reasons. after agents shot and killed one unarmed man in Houston, Texas, and another in Bitterford, Maine. Both men were fathers and husbands who had been living and working in America for years. Both were driving at the time, and both were victims of mistaken identity by ICE. After the shooting in Maine, DHS Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen ordered a temporary pause on vehicle stops by ICE officers, a pause that Susan Collins quickly took credit for, which was then overturned by Trump in less than 48 hours after an intense right-wing backlash to Mullen despite the fact that ICE has arrested a record number of people since Mullen's been confirmed even hitting Stephen Miller's 2 ,000 arrest per day quota a few times this month.

26:16This is of course thanks to the 170 billion dollars that Susan Collins and her fellow Republicans funneled to ICE which seems to be giving badges and guns to anyone who wants them. the ex-wife of the agent who killed the person in maine told the ap that because her ex-husband has a history of violent behavior and serious psychiatric issues when he told her ice had hired him quote she thought he was having a mental health episode and didn't believe him jesus this is the guy who killed person in maine uh and now according to the new york times federal agents recently received a written notice that the fbi would quote no longer investigate confrontations with immigration agents.

26:54It's supposed to be handled now internally through DHS. This is a report that's been denied by both the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security. So I feel like after Minnesota and Noem's firing, we were all worried that nothing would actually get better. It would just get quieter. Sure enough, even Trump's approval on immigration has sort of crept back up, though it's still slightly underwater. What do you make of the administration's response to the killings in Texas and in Maine? So yeah, that Homeland was going to be some kind of a step up from Bovino and from Christy Noem.

27:26The fear was they would continue doing what they were doing, but not as ostentatious. I do think the fact that they determined that these sieges upon cities were counterproductive politically was a win that continued, but that doesn't mean they haven't been more competently and quietly aggressive. and they have continued to put people like this out into the field. We already know they reduced the amount of time these people are trained. They lowered their standards. They've been desperate to recruit. So this is a direct result, not just what the Trump administration is doing, but what Congress has done to fund and give them the resources to rapidly hire people who have no business using a gun, let alone using a gun as law enforcement as part of the federal government.

28:16you read about this guy's background before he's in ice. This is just a fucking troubled guy. He had like a terrible head injury. He like was doing door dash. He was doing correction. Like he just was all over the place. Violent towards his own kids. I thought that the blowback to Mullen was very telling too on the right because it kind of goes to the point that like he's not running the department really. This is just like Miller's policies and he tries to do something on his own to pause and then Trump immediately just backs off.

28:42Jon Favreau:Yeah, I wonder if Mullen got a call from Susan Collins directly because they're senate colleagues and they probably know each other but yeah i mean this ice officer in maine he shot and killed a man in front of his three-year-old daughter you know it's fucking evil and it shows that um the policy has not changed much but the pr strategy has i mean noam and bovino like you said like they were being pressured to make 3 000 arrests a day and they would to do that they would have border patrol invade a city like an army and occupy it in the flashiest way possible that included flying black hawk helicopters over chicago or having like like little social media people filming all the people, stuff they were doing and then releasing it because they were proud of it.

29:17Jon Favreau:And Mullen is still trying to hit 2000 arrests a day, but the arrests are spread out all over the country and he's less thirsty for press attention than Noam was, although. Probably doesn't want it. Low bar. Yeah. DHS is still lying about all these incidents. They're de facto covering up for all these officers, but they're doing it in a slightly less gratuitous way. They're not, it's not like Minnesota where they're saying Renee Good and Alex Preddy were domestic terrorists or that, you know, know, Freddie was trying to massacre police, right? That was the intention to massacre police was like the line afterwards.

29:46Jon Favreau:And so Trump, though, is still making it clear that he doesn't care if innocent people are killed. He wants the dangerous practices like the vehicle stop arrest to continue if it means more deportations. So it is like they've definitely put a less flashy shine on their policies, but it is still very much the same dangerous, abusive practice. And that you can't give in to the libs, right? Like you can't, if something terrible happens and there's a call from your enemies to be restrained, to show any kind of restraint, you can't give in to that because that is what led us here, right? Like that's the problem.

30:23We have to prove we're really tough. Well, The Post had a good story on this about the sort of the blowback to Mullen. And, you know, it came from all the usual sort of right wing media online spaces, but also the Heritage Foundation. And there's people in the Heritage Foundation making the point that Tommy did, which is they're all saying like, oh, Collins probably called Mullen because they're Senate colleagues. And this is the problem with having someone at DHS from the Senate because you're trying to please all those people who are too moderate. And we have to just put, you know, foot on the gas for the deportation agenda.

30:54And it doesn't matter. It doesn't like we're just going to keep going. Like Stephen Miller doesn't care if it's unpopular. He doesn't care if people get killed. He doesn't care if what the detention center conditions are. He doesn't care what he just wants to do it. He just wants to get it done. And thinks that he is like and the only thing that's going to stop him is tremendous public pressure like the kind we saw after Minneapolis or Democrats winning Congress and being able to rein Trump in that way with the power of the purse. Well, look, his his immigrant Trump's immigration ratings were in the drop precipitously around the time of the killings in Minnesota.

31:31They have slowly but surely ticked back up. They're not above 50 and they're still you know, they're not as high as they once were. But when the attention comes off of it, it kind of reverts to a mean. And the baked in assumption, I think, on their part is people know that even if he goes too far, he is strong on this issue. It is a symbol of how he is strong as a president. I think that is the deeper reason he can justify politically continuing to do this. Yeah. And I think that because it's not in the news and people aren't seeing the excesses of the deportation project, Trump's deportation project, it's like they want, most people want border security.

32:15And unfortunately, most people want like approve of the deportations in general. They just think that it's, you know, when they don't see the excesses in the news, they think, well, they're deporting all the right people, right? They're deporting the violent criminals and that's that. And they forget about what happened in Minnesota and stuff like that. And you've got to this way you just got to keep reminding people and my people, you know, coming out in in Maine and Texas to protest. This is important to keep it in the news. Yeah. There's also just like a fundamental problem in when there is a mass shooting and 12 people are killed in one place.

32:47That is national news. If there are 12 heinous murders committed by people who should not have access to guns, that does not get the same coverage because they are distributed, even though it is the same level of harm. And so, yes, they are not wrong, right? That just people do not pay as much attention when these sort of injustices are distributed. And I know there's no good answer for that other than continuing to talk about it.

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36:14That's 50 % off your first order by using code crooked or going to cookunity.com slash crooked. One big question about the political impact is how this plays with Latino voters in the midterms and beyond. Our friend Carlos Odio at Equis Research always reminds us that the economy, not immigration, is still the top concern for Latino voters. In fact, their latest poll shows Trump's approval with Latinos has significantly decreased for the first time since last summer, mainly because his ratings on the economy and cost of living have collapsed. Dan talked with Carlos for this week's Polar Coaster, which you can listen to if you're a friend of the pod subscriber.

36:50If you're not, please consider joining at crooked.com slash friends so you can get subscriber only shows like Polar Coaster, along with ad free versions of your favorite crooked shows now, including Runaway Country with Alex Wagner. That said, Carlos Senequis also found that around two thirds of Latinos think Trump has gone too far on enforcement and deportation. And among Trump 2024 voters who are Latino who regret their vote, immigration overreach was one of the top reasons cited. What did you guys make of all that polling in terms of how Democrats should handle this issue from now until the midterms?

37:22I mean, I think the takeaways are Trump's approval is down.

37:26Jon Favreau:Many Latinos now regret voting for Trump, but Democratic approval is not necessarily up. So we need to treat Latino voters like they're swing voters, which they are. They have been. We're so way behind where we were with Latino voters in 2018. Carlos had a good message, which was basically like, don't scold people for voting for Trump. You just say you were lied to. Trump promised you a bunch of stuff. He didn't deliver. You're welcome back in the Democratic Party. I think that sounds exactly right. But I do think it's like the thing you hear from a lot of activist groups is that Democrats only show up in the last month of an election.

37:53Jon Favreau:It's all GOTV messaging, turnout messaging. It's not persuasion messaging. It's not early enough. I think that's like a lesson we need to learn this time. Yeah. Yeah. Looking at immigration specifically, I just think you can reflect what is true and also comes across in the polling. You know, Democrats, I think, really did have for a long time had their heads in the sand around the difference between believing in immigration and opposing a lawless border. Right. Like there was just a difference. And there was kind of a I think like treating people like they were pretty stupid about it. But now, I don't think it's very hard to say, like, we believe in controlling the border, but they're terrorizing communities, they're terrorizing families.

38:42You can enforce our immigration laws in a way that is not cruel and capricious and violent and chaotic. and in the same way he has failed to, because of his incompetence and chaos, failed to address the reason so many people gave him a chance. Cost of living is up. Gas is up. Everything is up. He's focused on all the wrong things. On immigration, we have seen so much chaos and so much violence and none of it was necessary. He was elected to bring down the cost of living and bring some order to places where people felt as though there wasn't enforcement at the border. now it's time to have responsible adults who are going to make good policy and do it in a way that reflects what people want out of their government without being so incompetent and cruel.

39:31Yeah. I thought the polling was interesting in that Latino voters, like most voters, they care about cost of living more than anything else. So that's the lead message. But sometimes it's framed as a choice between do we talk about that or do we talk about what ICE is doing? And Carlos and Eki say that Democrats should lift up the stories of the people who've been killed by ICE, but then makes the point, not just their wrongful deaths, but also the stories of their families and contributions to their communities. The data shows that among Latinos who believe Trump's gone too far in immigration, most say it's because of the impact his policies have had on families, children, US citizens, and legal immigrants.

40:07So there is, you know, the stories in the way that we would tell the stories anyway is what Democrats should be doing. Speaking of the midterms, one Republican who should be especially vulnerable on her unqualified support for ICE is Susan Collins, who is now likely to face Democrat Troy Jackson in November. Jackson is Maine's former state Senate president, who just lost the 2026 primary for governor. He's also a fifth generation logger from about as far north and rural as Maine gets. It's on the border of Canada, where Troy Jackson's from. Jackson won't officially be nominated to replace Graham Plattner until the party convention this weekend, but he ran the table at the county level meetings where delegates were chosen to the point where all of his major competitors have now dropped out.

40:47So I pretended to be a dermatologist, and I gave him a sort of head-to-toe mole check, and he's clear. So no moles and nothing else. So I just, I had to, you know, put on the stethoscope, that whole thing. You know, he kept on his underwear. I'm not a fucking maniac. Early thoughts on Troy Jackson, who's always been our favorite in this race, who we always thought would be the Senate candidate.

41:11Jon Favreau:thoughts on Troy Jackson. I'm going to spend a little more time looking. I have thoughts on huge credit to the main Democratic Party for throwing together a process this quickly. That must be hard. If Jackson gets it, hopefully that will go a long way towards bringing along the Plattner voters who are probably pretty pissed off and the volunteers who were left hanging when he withdrew. We're still in a tough spot. Plattner left us a mess. We're behind in fundraising. We're behind in name ID. Hopefully now this can become a referendum on Donald Trump and how voting for susan collins is a vote for the donald trump agenda but yeah it seems like he's um already moving towards that uh talking all about susan collins and and it's what could have been a very contentious couple weeks here yeah they figured it out they figured it out like credit to the main democratic party credit to all of uh troy jackson's challengers too who like instead of hanging into the convention have all dropped out and are all supporting him now which is great just so people know who troy jackson is um he so he was state senate president he was re-elected last in 2022 in one of the reddest, reddest parts of Maine.

42:13I looked up there in the first district, the state Senate district. Registration there is 36 % Republican, 19 % Democrat, 45 % no party preference. So that is an achievement winning that district. Internal polls, there's only been a few internal polls with him and Collins. They have him tied or slightly ahead, so it's too early for that. But he's got pretty much all of Graham Plattner's positions. He doesn't, maybe... Well, some of his older positions, sort of just more recent political ones, I'd say, probably. Yes, political positions, political positions. Maybe not quite as charismatic as, you know, he's a little gruffer.

42:56You know what?

42:56Jon Favreau:We'll see. He came in third for governor and used to be very conservative on abortion and gay rights. And over the years, now he gets like 100 % ratings from abortion and gay rights groups. so he sort of changed over time. I realize that process is not ideal but in South Carolina Republicans are like hey Lindsey Graham you're dead. What if your sister just takes over? That's weird. Hey we're in the market for Lindsey Graham in a wig. So weird. They're just handing a Senate seat to Lindsey Graham's sister? Yeah and so there hasn't been a lot of like you didn't give us a process. Why did you give us this guy?

43:28I think for Troy Jackson it's like it's name ID. People don't. I don't think even people in Maine. right like you're the state senate does anyone know the state senate president does anyone know the nobody i don't even know who the head of the legislature is here and assembly is in california do you guys gonna be very complicated i'm not doing pop quizzes today just so folks know it's

43:46Jon Favreau:not just that lindsey graham's sister is is finishing out the seat she's announcing she's going to run for it i know and and i just want to be clear we don't know for you know maybe she has great and interesting like she works with the blind i don't know gotta there's a chance let's Let's just be cool. We always thought Lindsey Graham's sister was a reasonable person who could have a conversation with. Let's give her a chance before she, if we discover that she makes Lauren Boebert look like Hakeem Jeffries. Unfortunately, Nancy Mace has dropped out of that race and won't be running now. It's so funny.

44:18She said she'll continue to shitpost. She literally said that. That's great. She posted, just when I thought I was out, they pulled me back in from Godfather Part 3. Never, like the least requested person ever being like,

44:28Jon Favreau:fine, I'll do it. They being yourself pulled you back in? The voices? Turns out Maine isn't the only speed bump on the road to a blue wave. The Wisconsin gubernatorial primary just got a little jolt over the weekend when Lieutenant Governor Sarah Rodriguez ended her campaign after revealing serious financial mismanagement by her campaign manager. She was one of the leading candidates in the polls. Her dropping out set off a panic among the state's more moderate and establishment Democrats who are worried that Francesca Hong, the DSA-backed candidate who's leading in the polls, won't be able to win in November.

45:01So even though former lieutenant governor and Senate candidate Mandela Barnes is still close to Hong in the polls, Wisconsin Democrats convinced Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, who'd ended his own campaign a week earlier to get back in the race. And then Governor Tony Evers, who had been staying out of the primary, endorsed Crowley. Seems like they got everything under control up there in Wisconsin, huh? I like I keyed into this because when I saw the Sarah Rodriguez press conference video and I was like watching this video, I really hadn't been paying close attention to this primary, to be honest.

45:36But then I watched the video and just someone at the podium being like, here is when I found out we were being robbed. Here's when I found out there was not enough money here and there. Then I realized there was a problem over here. I was like, oh, boy, I mean, I guess it's good to get ahead of this. But I don't know how you can win a campaign for governor when you're just getting when your finances are so fucked.

45:54Jon Favreau:I still feel like I'm missing something in the Sarah Rodriguez story. The campaign manager double counted donations. So they had less money than expected. Then that same staffer puts out a press release that's like, we're doing a million dollar ad buy. The candidate is like, hey, where's our ads? I don't ever see them on TV. Turns out the ad buy was fake because, again, they didn't have the money. They put out their filing and she has like thirty five grand on hand. Yeah. So that's obviously bad. But do you have to drop out for that? like I mean you couldn't have stuck it out I just think if you're running to be the chief something something I get the argument like it looks incompetent you can't manage your own campaign can't manage your own finances but it's like I don't know the primary is August 11th like I feel like there must be more we're gonna learn about what happened and by the way like when I say Rob I have no idea it just sounded like someone at least insinuating that money was going right out the door illicitly anyway she's gone uh may a memory be a blessing this is an important race uh we don't want a republican as governor in wisconsin in 2028 when there will be a presidential election to certify um and so really important that we replace tony evas with the democrat um i'm kind of confused why they didn't rally around mandela barnes so um so mandela barnes um who uh we've known mandela for a while he also ran in 2022 for Senate.

47:16He came like 26 ,000 votes shy of winning in a year where it was a 2022 midterms. It was a more Republican leaning year. And he's close to Hong in all the polls. He's probably like ahead of Rodriguez in some polls. Several polls show him ahead of the Republican candidate, Representative Tom Tiffany. And Crowley, who I don't know much about, David Crowley, but When he suspended his campaign, he never got more than 5 % of the vote in any of the polls. He never hit beyond 5%. And then somehow Evers went out and endorsed him and not Barnes. I don't understand it either, other than he lost before. They could use that same playbook again.

47:59If he lost to Ron Johnson, he's going to lose again. It's almost confusing. 20 % of primary voters have already cast their ballots. It's almost impossible that David Crowley is going to win this. What him getting back into the race may do is assure that Hong is going to win.

48:15Jon Favreau:Yeah, I mean, all the whispering in those articles is they think Mandela Barnes is basically just as progressive as Hong and therefore will have all the same problems. I think they're all kind of whispering about bad polling. I have no idea if that's true, but that's when Politico reports on this and stuff. Yeah, the strategy is baffling. yeah like it but it's it's so funny because it's it's one thing to think barnes is also too progressive uh just like hong and so crowley would be the most electable candidate like i get bad argument as a i might not agree with it but i get it as a legitimate argument but then saying okay so we'll put him in the primary with two weeks left he never hit five percent and somehow he'll vault ahead of the other two candidates they're just hoping that the tony Evers endorsement will do it, it seems.

48:57Jon Favreau:Well, also to be. Yeah. Even with like there hasn't been a lot of great polling, but also the polling's had them all pretty low, too. So like maybe they're hoping there's just a lot of people that have made up their minds or late. Yeah. The other also just to say like Barnes was lieutenant governor of the state. He's not like coming from nowhere. Right. Like I'll just say this. Like if Hong wins the primary and loses the general, it is not this is not like let's blame DSA. hey, this is the establishment decided to put in someone else, potentially split the vote with Barnes, and that's where we ended up where we did.

49:27Not to mention after Sarah Rodriguez had to end her campaign. Right, of course. I mean, you know, he saw this flame out coming. I think everyone in Wisconsin was just like, Jesus Christ, what do we do? Right. Scrambling. Right. But that's what I'm saying. The Crowley thing is the weird part. It's not the... Like, no one could have seen the Sarah Rodriguez thing coming, but the Crowley thing is just a weird thing to do.

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52:02Alright, let's end with Michigan, where there's a very chill, congenial Senate primary between former Crooked host Abdul El-Sayed, who the three of us are supporting, and Congresswoman Haley Stevens. who we're hoping to have on the show as soon as she can make it work. The polling is relatively sparse and a bit all over the place in a race where the biggest issue dividing the candidates is Israel. Abdul wants to end all USA to Israel. Stevens does not and has the support of AIPAC, who's spending heavily in this race. Abdul is also in favor of more progressive policies like abolishing ICE and Medicare for All, which is one reason he's been endorsed by AOC and Bernie Sanders, who are in the state this weekend campaigning with him.

52:39Here's a clip from one event. They want us to think that these forces are too powerful for us to overcome. That this is just how things are. There's$50 million in this race because they're expecting a return. It's an investment. They've taken to calling me dangerous. Now I don't know why you would call somebody who looks like me with a name like mine, dangerous. is. If you're a corporation wanting to buy a politician with their pack, I'm dangerous. If you're a pack and want to send our money abroad, you damn well better believe I'm dangerous. If you're somebody who wants government to work for you, I'm not dangerous.

53:28I might just be the one person running for U.S. Senate who actually wants to serve you. Thoughts on one of the last and maybe most contentious Democratic primary of the year?

53:40Jon Favreau:I mean, I hate that this has gotten jammed into the Graham Plattner discourse frame, at least on social media, because like Abdul and Graham Plattner are absolutely nothing alike. And anyone suggesting otherwise is trying to smear Abdul in a really disgusting way and just clock that when you read these tweets and judge them accordingly. Some of the issues in the race are nationalized. Like there is frustration at the establishment and Chuck Schumer for picking candidates. That's part of the race. There's Gaza. There's APEC spending. But if you watch the debates or watch them on the stump, it is very local.

54:10Jon Favreau:It's a lot of auto industry talk. There's a lot of anger at shitty utility companies. Everyone in the race made a video about a bridge from Detroit to Canada that Trump was shutting down. They're talking about health care premiums. So, look, I'm supporting Abdul because I consider him a friend. I think he's really smart. I think he's good on the stump. He's taken principled positions on stuff I really care about. I think he'd be a good senator. It's like it's no deeper than that. I'm not a Haley Stevens hater in any way, shape or form. If she wins the primary, like I will wholeheartedly support her no matter who wins.

54:41Jon Favreau:This is going to be a really tough race. Mike Rogers, a good, strong Republican opponent. We barely beat him last time. So I think what's most important is whatever happens come August 5th. Like everybody's got to put down the little Twitter knives. Stop nursing your little grudges, making this about some bigger thing, some factional intraparty thing. And let's come together and win this race. We have to do a little faster than people have been doing it up in Maine because there's a lot of lingering bullshit happening You know, there's debate about Medicare for all which is largely a symbolic debate Even if you support Medicare for all the next Democratic Congress if we're so lucky to have a Democratic Congress will have Trump as president like there's no hope of passing Medicare For all but it is a symbol of a willingness to like go bigger go against the establishment be willing to say something that may not be as popular broadly, but shows that you're willing to fight.

55:32Now, you know, what AOC says there, like, oh, they're buying the seat. It's pretty clear. Haley Stevens has said she will support military aid and aid to Israel. Abdul will not, right? They're investing to get behind a candidate who will support continuing to give military aid to Israel. But that is a symbol of what happens if either one of them is in the Senate. And put the big ideological distinctions between them aside, Haley Stevens is a reliable Democratic vote. She doesn't have a particularly strong ideological point of view. You go to her website, it's a lot of nuts and bolts, bring money home to Michigan policies.

56:15She supports a public option. She supports reforming ICE. She's just a reliable Democratic vote. Abdul is someone who will push on the party from the left. That is what he would do in the Senate. Now, I think that's a good thing. I think it's good to have people that have a strong point of view and want the Democratic Party to stand for something clear. But in the end, either way, neither one of them is going to be able to enact any kind of specific agenda. It's a question of what do you believe a Democratic Senate should look like, which is why it becomes a proxy between Bernie and Schumer and all the rest.

56:49I do think with the Senate race, because you're there for six years, ideally, this person is there for a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress. And then hopefully, the next Democratic president does make a move to expand health care. Who knows how far they'll be able to go, but ideally. And so, you know, they will get to do, they will get to set the agenda, hopefully, in some ways. But I think but to your point, I mean, this always happens with primaries, right, which is because the candidates are generally similar on their policy platforms. You try to find differences that then become magnified in the heat of a race that then make it seem like it is this Manichean struggle between good and evil for the supporters on either side.

57:37And look, I think in this one, you're right. Israel is a clear dividing line. And that is where their policy, I mean, she supports aid to Israel with no conditions whatsoever. And he wants to cut it off. And even some of the other races where AIPAC is played in, I think the difference hasn't been so clear. She's on the right edge of a dwindling minority of Democrats who are taking that position. Even in the Senate, I mean, the vast majority of Democratic senators are closer to Abdul's position now than they are to Haley Stevens. Right. And so then the other thing you would do is you'd make it about electability.

58:07And I do think it's been hard to make this race about electability grounded in a lot of firm data because, look, the polls that we've had have been from not really high quality pollsters. There's been a lot of internal polling from both sides. We don't have like a New York Times-Siena poll or a lot of really good polling. And in the polling that we have, you know, at the beginning of the race, it seemed like Stevens performed slightly better against Mike Rogers than Abdul. now it seems like abdul has like a point or two on her or they're tied so it's really hard to make an electability argument so therefore now you're just fighting over well what they're really

58:47Jon Favreau:fighting about is like they're they're hand waving at the policy shit but they're like his name's abdul al-sayed there's a muslim guy that is what is happening it is i mean i'm not saying hailey stevens specifically is saying that but a lot of abdul's opponents are when they say electability that is what they mean and that is what has gotten a little ugly well into into your earlier point and now they're doing the well he's got some of the same consultants right and so graham plattner wasn't vetted and we don't want another and it's like abdul has been vetted because he ran for governor of michigan and that's why his name idea is so high in the first place and he's been like you know he's just he's he served in public office right he's very wasn't like plucked out of obscurity and like the big controversy was about whether or not after he got his md phd he technically did a residency it's like that's like it's very different than a Nazi tattoo and a sexual assault allegation.

59:32But is it like both candidates now or I've seen them in interviews be like, well, this race isn't really about Israel and everyone else wants to make it about Israel and Gaza, but we want to make it about Michigan. But even there, there's not a lot of like there's not a fight about health care like you're for Medicare for all. And I'm from the public option. Let's let's duke it out. You're for abolishing ICE. I'm for reforming ICE. Let's duke it on that. It's there's there's surprisingly little attacks from both of the supporters, at least on the policy issues and more on it's more like it's more like money driven policy

1:00:02Jon Favreau:issues it's like you've taken all this money from corporations or apac or others therefore you're beholden to them that is kind of the proxy for a lot of the political fights and then but for hayley it's like there's a similarly weird thing happening online with her which is like a lot of people are plucking up speeches where they think she looks goofy and sharing them and then it turns out maybe people like those speeches we don't really know well i was i was into like they're Like there's moments where she's kind of goofy and like kind of she's like, we got to let her rip. We got to stick it to him.

1:00:28And like it's kind of sweet. And there's this kind of aesthetics where if someone who is seen as centrist or pro-Israel does something that is slightly cringe. Or it happened about Mallory McMurrow too when she was in the kind of Elizabeth Warren role to Abdul and they were mad at her. Like this is so embarrassing. You're so embarrassing. It's cringe. Like this is the problem. This is the problem. You don't understand real people because you don't understand what broken brain online people think is funny anymore. But if Abdul has made plenty of cringey content and but his he's you know, he's good for the movement.

1:01:01And so those things aren't as bad. And I was thinking about when I'm like Schumer farted on the Senate floor. And I do think he did not make the most of it. I think he should have done it about how we are having a gas crisis. He what happened to the man that Schumer used to be the guy at the gas station. There was a moment where he could have made news about it. He was just unblocking the straight of four. moves exactly exactly look not the only not the only waterway they were having trouble getting things through these days at my age but so but but i know but if like mom donnie farted during press conference there would be stories about how like man everybody's farting again he's so good at this so good this is a master at work generation he made such a joke this is why we need medicare for all he'd say or something i don't know how do we get to farting because oh because oh because Because of Haley Stevens' videos.

1:01:45Right, because of stick it to them. Because of stick it to them. But at the same time, it's like, okay, you want to be this sort of like hardscrabble, kind of salt of the earth campaigner, but also your campaign is propped up by tens of millions of dollars of outside money. And John, to your point, like one of the reasons the debate is about that outside money and about Israel is because she as an establishment figure doesn't have like a clear, other than just bringing money home for vision, they'll auto bail it. Like what's the policy place where she feels so strongly she wants to pick a fight with Abdul over it.

1:02:14Well, this is, this is, yes. And I know this is naive of me, but like, as we head into a presidential primary season, like my wish is that the, the factional war within the democratic party is fought over different policy positions. Cause there are plenty of differences between the left and the center left. And I think sometimes what the establishment center left, whatever we want to call them, more moderate Democrats does is they look at the progressive movement progressive candidates and they either take umbrage or dismiss them or say or just like attack attack attack and it's like try to you got to be for something yes you got to be excited about your candidates and you got to run candidates who are exciting and charismatic and have something that they really want to get done but they default to and you can kind of hear this with and i'm not saying stevens does this but some of her supporters do it's like but she works so hard and she's just she's got her head down and she works hard and that's like the that's like the thing for all the establishment candidates is like they just they're servant they're public servants and they're working hard it's like yeah everyone's everyone in public life who's running

1:03:15Jon Favreau:for office is working hard and doing a lot of good stuff she's sort of a throwback it's sort of a throwback campaign like there was a not that long ago most campaigns were like i'm gonna deliver for my state i'm gonna bring home the bacon i'm gonna get earmarks and pork barrel and just like build a fucking airport over here and you know what if susan collins wins that's why and it's hailey like it sounds like that's the kind of campaign she's running now somewhere along the way we found this desire where we also want people to be national figures and have national profiles and see value in that too there's a bit of a race here on the on the the goofy content thing like abdul has put out videos that were so cringy that i sent them to his consultants and i said no more of this i bet right was he in a hat i don't remember which one it was it might have been more than one but like he's put out a lot of corny shit now i think there are people rightly pointing out that i think hayley is treated differently because she is a woman there's a lot of misogyny and sexism uh in the messaging you'll see on twitter about these videos they're also just kind of cringy videos at times and like sometimes she's a goofy messenger and sometimes he's a goofy fucking messenger it's not always loaded to say that too like that's the other part of this well that this is where like the attention economy has made people do crazy things yes like there's a whole range of issues that are just not really that much a part of a democratic debate education one of the most important issues where democrats have lost ground for the last 10 years yep or five years really six years and like i'll say something that would like this is one of the reasons why if rom runs for president like it will be good because he will be the person that clip it right shut up i saw austin point right after it will be good it will be it will because send it he will for he will he will he will have that kind of old school democratic politics where he like he start now starring on his son piker's next stream is how ari gets it back on uh survivor too.

1:04:59Jon Favreau:Fuck. Because he will force debates about these questions on his road to not being the nominee. And like on a broad range of issues that will like kind of like in the way that Haley Seymans is not causing, not kind of forcing questions back over to Abdul on policy questions. I think you need center left figures who do that because we need to have those big debates. That's all. Well, Haley's big attack on Abdul in the debate was like, you haven't released your tax returns yet. And I just wonder, like, it was another kind of like, it felt like an old school criticism of someone. I just want to call him a celebrity.

1:05:28Well, it feels like he's attacking her on money, right? Like you've got all this money to spend on your behalf. So she's like, I want to do a money thing. It's not illegitimate.

1:05:36Jon Favreau:I'm just wondering if voters care. I can't tell. We'll find out. Who knows? Speaking of Bernie, CNN reported over the weekend that back in March when he backed a challenger to a Democratic House incumbent in North Carolina, Hakeem Jeffries called him and warned him against meddling in House primaries, arguing that it's divisive and a drain on limited resources that could go to beating Republicans. Another member who was on the call said Sanders, quote, seemed not to care. What do you guys think? Which seems, I absolutely buy that. The most Jolene phone call. Like, please, please, I know you can take these districts.

1:06:09Please stop. Please stop. He's my man.

1:06:11Jon Favreau:It's like, I get why Hakeem Jeffries would not want divisive primaries. I can't imagine any scenario where he thought Bernie Sanders would care. I can't, it's hard to imagine a conversation Bernie Sanders would care about less. other than the debate the interview i had with him where he tried to get out of it a few minutes early where he did this that sucked this is another this is another problem with like the establishment argument is it's the response is always like no no no these primaries shouldn't happen or these candidates like guess what the candidates are going to run people are going to sign up and they're going to run for office and they're going to be from all political persuasions and doing the whole and and hillary started this in 2016 with bernie right it's like the they're not real Democrats and they're and they're not they don't respect the Democratic Party's institutions like you know who doesn't respect the Democratic Party's institution?

1:07:01America. And actually, and more specifically, Democrats. Exactly. So it's like not the greatest argument to be like, how dare you run and how dare you upset our primaries? It's like, go beat them, beat them with better ideas, beat them by saying that like their ideas are bad or their or their ideas aren't going to resonate with most American people. Like there's plenty to go after before just being like, don't run. Yeah, it's a, you know, these are people trying to do a hostile takeover of a failing enterprise. You know, if you think they're not the right people to lead, you got to make a much better case to the shareholders because they're looking at your record and they're thinking, I'm going to kind of take a shot on these people.

1:07:35Yeah. Also, look at the Republican Party. Did that work really well for them, for all the establishment figures in the Republican Party when they were like, no, Donald Trump can't be it. Right. Good point.

1:07:44Jon Favreau:And also, they're facing their own version of this. Like in Arizona, Andy Biggs is probably going to be the Republican gubernatorial nominee. He's a lunatic in Iowa. My buddy Rob Sand is up against this complete unknown dude whose primary work background was like working for the Koch brothers for a decade. He doesn't even live in the state. He's in Iowa half the time. He's in Kansas. That Colorado guy. That's like, yeah, when I was a kid, I killed people. What's up? What of it? What of it? We all do it. Wait, what? Go back. We all do it. That's one of the all time interviews. So I killed someone.

1:08:17Jon Favreau:What of it? But yeah, they've nominated this lunatic in Iowa who wants to ban the mRNA vaccine. He wants COVID vaccines off the shelf. More than me. Marxists hijacked the curriculum in Iowa. There was a decade of Republican rule. But they're not backing away from him. The RGA is going to put tens of millions of dollars on air behind this guy. So anyway. Yeah. Well, like you said, I think it's going to be a bumpy couple of weeks in these primaries. But once August comes and goes, we're all behind the nominee, whoever it may be. Did you see that on the sidelines of one of the events with Abdul Politico asked AOC about running for president?

1:08:56And she said, I can't say that I've ruled it out. She also talked about her own definition of what Big Tent means. General thoughts on how she's preparing for the possibility of a run in 28. We've talked so much about elections that are happening in November. We get a little treat to talk, do just a tiny bit of speculation before we end the pod. Yeah, there's a little bit of like, there's like an Axios story about like, about AOC embracing kind of Obama style hope and change as sort of as like evidence of her shift in preparation for running. And I don't really think it like reflects, like if you go, I think AOC has evolved as a public figure.

1:09:32And I think she has learned a lot since she's been in Congress. But I think part of what her appeal has always been is that she's there's some she's asked and she says, I don't something like I don't come from a I come from a working class family. I didn't come from a militant leftist family. Right. Like that's like that's just right. Like this reading the stage directions a little bit. But her appeal has always been that she hasn't sounded like what Republicans want her to sound like. She sounded so much more optimistic and hopeful. And she's also, by the way, said something similar about not ruling out, like I think a month ago, like this is going to be something that keeps happening.

1:10:04But whether she runs for Senate or president or neither, like she's going to use the power she has. And she is, I think, a more important and attention worthy figure as long as the possibility of running for president out there.

1:10:17Jon Favreau:The single best way to get media coverage is to suggest that you're going to run for president. She's smart. She knows that this will get her attention for her ideas. I don't know if she's going to run or not. It feels like she might. Like the only size tent we are allowed to have is circus. It's like the Democratic Party. Our tent has got to be gigantic at this point. We need to fit a lot of people underneath this thing. So I'm glad she's saying that. I will say that she, if I were her and I were thinking of running for president, she is, and she's probably being told and knows herself because she's very, very smart, that like, you know, her risk is that she's seen as too left and too extreme.

1:10:56And she's seen all the polling data, I'm sure. And if you're going to run for president and you at least want to prepare for the possibility that you might, I think she's doing all the right things that you would do. Which is that it may be less than her answers. Right. About like, are you running or not? Like the the way that she's endorsing or not endorsing. Certainly she didn't endorse Graham Plattner. She hasn't endorsed this this progressive challenger in Michigan in a house seat. And then wasn't on stage for the like she's like being very careful. She's being very careful, but not in a way that seems like cautious.

1:11:28Like she's just being deliberate in her rhetoric, right? Like she said, you know, you can have a clear vision for what we're trying to accomplish as a country and also include everyone in it and show that everyone has a place in that as well. It's just it's not it's not the same as you hear from many of the DSA candidates today. Except Mimdani, I should say. I take her also at her word when she was asked about this previously, like what she's looking for sort of outcomes. Right. She's not just about her and her position. And if you think in 2020, there's obviously going to be a big, contentious and very important primary.

1:11:57Either the vote of the left will be divided or it will be united behind one figure. If it is her, she knows that as that person, she knows how responsible and capable and careful she will be and deliberate about how to hold that position, whether it is as the nominee or as the person who helps unite the party behind whoever the nominee would be. And that is like the figure who is right to represent what comes after Bernie is someone who, A, just truly believes in this fight and representing it as persuasively as possible. But also, like Bernie and AOC, understand that if the more moderate candidate wins, it is just as important to get behind them.

1:12:38She comes across as someone who takes very seriously her role in the party, whatever it may be, and her role in politics, which is a good thing to see. All right. That's our show for today. Dan and I will be back with a new show on Friday. Paws of America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Farrah Safari with Ree Cherlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hethcote, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kirill Pellaviv, David Tolles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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