Trump Loses the Gerrymander War

25:03And the answer is, of course not. Yes. That is an absurd fucking position. I do think in a different era, and maybe even the first Trump era, Democrats would not have responded as aggressively to this because we do believe germandering is wrong. We would have thought that, not everyone, I don't think you and I would have thought that, but I think many in the party would have thought that it is dirty pool, two wrongs don't make a right, we should not do it. And the fact that we did certainly is that Democrats have learned a lesson, finally, of the Trump era, which is if you are going to take on fascism, you have to be willing to fight fire with fire.

25:37You have to use, everything Democrats are doing is legal. It is a maximum use of allowable political power. The way to fix unfair rules is to fix the rules, not just sit there and let your ass get beat. So last year, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia beat her opponent by 15 points. The referendum passed by three. It's a 12-point swing. Why do you think it was so close? A couple reasons here. One, so the most obvious comparison point is the California measure that passed in November. That passed by about 30 points. This is three points. California is more Democratic than Virginia, but it's not 10 times more Democratic than Virginia.

26:24Right. And if it passed by 30 points, isn't it like a D plus 20 state usually? Yeah. And Kamala Harris won Virginia by 5.8 points. But some reasons why it was closer. One, this was a very Republican turnout was quite good. It was actually as the big 2021 levels. When we lost. When we lost, yeah, when Glenn Youngkin was elected. The Republicans did mount a very good campaign here. They actually used Barack Obama in their ads. Both sides used Obama in their ads. The no side used Obama, footage of Obama talking about why Joe Manning was bad in their ads. And then the yes side used more recent footage of Obama saying pass this amendment.

27:07Smarter than no side. And they spent real money, less money than the yes side. But the other issue here that made it closer was independence. So independence in the last Washington Post poll that was a couple weeks before the election had independence at plus 10 on the no side, which is a huge swing from Spanberg, who won them by more than 20 points in 2025. And that kind of makes sense because if you're an independent who is upset with Trump, maybe you voted for Youngkin in 2021, maybe you voted for Spenberg in 2025, probably Trump in 2024, and you're mad at Trump. You see this a process oriented anti pro gerrymandering amendment is something that you can still vote against.

27:58Yeah. And I don't know how the vote broke down in any of the individual districts, but I also think it is very understandable if you're an independent or if you're a Republican and you're deciding whether to come out and vote or not or vote. Like if you're in a district that's going to get gerrymandered and so you no longer really have a have a say and you're a member of Congress or you're not going to ever get a Republican. I can see why you vote against it. Yeah. It's like gerrymandering in general is bad and they shouldn't have sent us down this path. And the interesting, interesting, the one group that blew the doors off and it's probably why Democrats won was Asian American voters.

28:34Yeah. And black Americans, too. I saw I saw both Asian and the Asian vote and the black vote were were quite high. Yeah. Because, again, especially black voters like know what it is to be gerrymandered. Let's talk about what the redistricting war Trump started with Texas hath wrought. when you add up all the states now that have redrawn their maps, Democrats are, as of this moment, plus one in the overall count. The only state left is Florida, where the legislature has a special session scheduled for next week. But it's actually unclear if DeSantis changing the maps will net Republicans any additional seats.

29:10And some in the party are already feeling what Axios described as, quote, buyer's remorse. You bet. It's a bummer, huh? When asked if the redistricting effort was worth it, The chair of the NRCC, whose job it is to keep Republicans House majority, told Axios, quote, it's not for me to say because really it wasn't my decision. And California independent Kevin Kiley, who was a Republican and now caucuses with the Republicans still, told Axios, quote, I wish none of this had happened. Well, because Kevin Kiley lost his seat. Exactly. Did we win redistricting? Yes. I mean, yes, we won redistricting.

29:49When Florida is done, it could come out that we are a seat or two behind. Florida is interesting because DeSantis could redraw the maps. One, just worth noting that partisan gerrymandering in Florida is illegal. According to the Constitution, no less. So that seems like a hurdle. It is a hurdle. I would say the legal reasoning of the Florida Supreme Court is malleable. A bunch of Eileen Cannon's on that thing. Yeah. And so there's some thought that they're going to find a way to twist the illegal pretzel enough to get it done. But even if you draw it, right? Yeah, this is the problem. DeSantis is under pressure to do what Newsom did because DeSantis wants to run for president in 2028, potentially.

30:34This is his chance to show himself to be an important Republican player. But experts who look at this think that anything more than adding two Republican seats puts them at real risk of what you call a dummy bander. which is where you draw the districts in a way that in a bad year, you lose a bunch of seats. So even I think even if DeSantis were to do it, he's going to get two seats at max. So we end up minus one for the whole thing. And what I think in the sense that we won, I'm not sure anyone's going to do this again in mid-year. Obviously, we're going to have to do this again after the 2030 census in every state.

31:14but I think Democrats sent a message to Republicans that if you try to do this, we will do it too and you're not going to get that much and the juice won't be worth the squeeze. I saw a longtime Florida Republican consultant talking to Politico. He ran the numbers and that person ran the numbers and concluded the new map could net Republicans zero seats for the reasons you talked about. So, because right now they hold a 20 to eight edge and because basically there's nowhere left to cram Democrats without exposing safe Republicans to incumbents. So it's going to be really hard even if the Supreme Court allows it.

31:50The other thing that we've been waiting for is this Supreme Court case that could upend the map in the Voting Rights Act and basically say that all majority and minority districts can be redrawn, which would cost Democrats a bunch of seats. But I do think as of now, it's like too late. it's too late for it to matter in 2026, partly apparently because two Southern states, which is where it would heavily affect, it was affect Southern states more than anyone. Two Southern states have already held primaries and candidate filing deadlines have passed in every state, but Florida. So even if the Supreme court says that it matters for this election, like they just can't, it would be mass chaos if they were to try to make it in place.

32:36And it's just like for the states that already held primaries, you can't do anything. I guess you can, I guess the legislature could go try to change a filing deadline by passing legislation. Yeah, they'd have to pass new laws to basically do emergency elections to do it. You have new filing deadlines. People have to get signatures for those petitions. Then you'd have to have a primary. Then the general election of members seems. And you have to draw the districts at some point in that too. So seems fine for 2026. It is a problem. And it seems like the decision will be bad. But a problem for another day.

33:08Enjoy that majority while we have it. For the next two years. The redistricting fiasco only adds to the Republicans' midterm woes. Trump and the party continue to hit new lows in polling. Both the AP and ARG had Trump's approval at 33 % and 32 % respectively. So that's fun. As Sarah Longwell says, that's the Bush line right there. Cook Political Report released a new poll on Thursday, finding that just in swing districts that Trump won in 2024 by an average of two points, Democrats now hold a six point advantage on the generic congressional ballot. So that's pretty big. And in a new Fox poll, voters gave Democrats the edge over Republicans on inflation and the economy for the first time since 2010.

33:49I think that's a six point spread in the in the generic ballot as well. How much hopium are you huffing these days? I don't know. I'm not really a hopium huffer per se. I know. That's why I'm asking. Well, I think that the political environment looks about as good as we ever possibly could hope for Democrats right now. And the poll that everyone should really be paying attention to is the Cook Political Report poll of 36, the 36 districts that will decide the House, all of the toss up lean Republican, lean Democratic districts. And that was the one that was the 36. That's 6.36. And in that one, Democrats have big double-digit advantages on lowering prices and on the economy, which is something that has changed.

34:33Trump's unpopular. Republican base is divided. We have the opportunity before us, as we'll get to this conversation. There are some hurdles to maximizing that opportunity. but it like this has the potential to be a 1994-2006-2018 style election for Democrats where it is a massive rebuke to the president, incumbent president and the party in his party. And we've been talking about the House, but headline of Nate Cohen's newsletter earlier this week was why a Democratic Senate once unthinkable is now a real possibility. What did you make of Nate's reasoning? Because he's not someone who just... No, he is not a opium huffer.

35:13Flies off the handle and just starts making predictions. We've made this case on Polar Coaster multiple times, and we've talked about it a little bit here. But once again, as we've said, it is a tall order to get the Senate because you have to win two of four states that Trump won by double digits, in addition to holding all of our ones we have in winning many North Carolina. But the advantages we have are we have good candidates, very, very good candidates in three of those four. The four states is Iowa, which hasn't had its primary yet. So you have Mary Paltola in Alaska, top-notch candidate.

35:48Sherrod Brown in Ohio, top-notch candidate. James Salarico in Texas, top-notch candidate. And there's some view. And Roy Cooper in North Carolina. And Roy Cooper in North Carolina. And then Maine. Right, that's not one of the four. Maine's not a race anyone's ever talked about in this podcast. So, you know, it's an under-the-radar race. And the Democrats are over-performing in special elections by a margin that would deliver, it puts all of those states in play, right? We got to win those. We need plus 10, plus 11 environment to win those states. And we're seeing that's the sort of environment we're in right now.

36:20And then you can add some additional points to that because you have candidates who are going to perform better than a generic Democrat. Yeah, the paragraph in Nate's piece that really stuck out to me was I was talking about Sherrod and Mary Paltola. It says, in Ohio, Mr. Brown lost by 3.6 points in 2024. Ms. Peltola lost by around two points in Alaska. Today, the Democrats are faring about eight points better on the generic congressional ballot than they did in the 2024 combined U.S. congressional popular vote. Or put another way, Mr. Brown and Ms. Peltola probably would have won reelection in 2024 if those contests had been held in this political environment.

36:57So that's pretty big. Echelon did a set of polls in the Senate states. Echelon, really good pollster run by Republicans, Patrick Ruffini and Kristen Soltis Anderson. they have Ossoff up 51-44 in Georgia. In Maine, they have Plattner up on Collins 51-45. They have Mills up by a narrower 48-46. That's that Maine Senate race? Yeah, I'm just holding my tongue on that. In Iowa, they have Zach Walls, a two-point lead, and Josh Turek, a one-point lead. So they do have a tiny lead inside the margin area in Iowa. And then the only tough one there is in Ohio, they have shared down 51-45. And there's been a few Ohio polls that have been kind of troubling lately, but we'll see.

37:43So speaking of Patrick Ruffini, who literally wrote the book on the so-called realignment that delivered Trump to the White House in 24, he tweeted a few days before the Virginia election that if the referendum passed by around a five-point margin, of course it passed by three, it meant Republicans, quote, have some fight in them and can, quote, hold down Dem seat gains in the House and keep the Senate. What did you make of his case? It's not crazy. So the original point here is Democrats tout every time we overperform, and so he's going to go around tout the one time we underperform. So, you know, sporting, I guess.

38:23What I think is, and I want to stipulate that a process-oriented ballot measure is very different than a candidate race where the candidate, it's hard to hold the no on redistricting measure accountable for why you're angry at Trump. Yeah. And just to your point about ballot measures, let us not forget all the abortion ballot measures in deep red states that made us excited that maybe we were going to win those states. Or minimum wage ballots. And they did not. Exactly. We did not. The 25-point congressional performance in Georgia from three weeks ago or whatever it was is a better indicator than this.

39:01Also, it is certainly not evidence of an improving political environment. Trump's actually doing worse than he was before. The generic ballot is getting bigger, not smaller. And so I think it's a bit of a vacuum. What I think is true is that what Republicans effectively did here is they nationalized that election. And when you nationalize an election, that gives them the chance to turn out more of their voters. because we are winning both through massive Democratic turnout, persuasion, and diminished Republican turnout. They're not going to drive down our turnout. They're probably not going to do a lot of persuasion, but the one thing they can do is drive their turnout up.

39:38And that is the difference between us winning a bunch of Trump plus 12 seats and us not winning Trump plus 12 seats. Yeah. And the other point I found compelling about Patrick's argument is he basically said, in all these special elections that we've had so far, Republicans really haven't been able to sort of up the stakes and make voters feel like there's a lot at stake in this election. And in Virginia, they were able to do that because they made it seem like, you know, you could lose your voice and your district forever. And so once you get closer to the actual midterms and everything's nationalized, as you said, and the stakes are higher and they're spending, you know, all the money they have, which we're about to talk about, then you could get a closer environment than you've had in some of these special elections, which I do think is possible.

40:22It's impossible. Republicans are going to get their shit together in some way, shape, or form. That is going to happen. It always does. They're not going to get Trump-level turnout. They're not going to get the turnout they want, but they're going to get better turnout than they've been getting in some of these special elections, and that is going to hold ... That is not enough to save the House. It may be enough to save the Senate, but it's not enough to save the House, but it could hold down margins. The difference between Democrats picking up 15 seats and 25 seats.

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43:12the new york times reported this week that republican party political committees and allied groups currently have a massive 600 million dollar financial advantage over the democrats and their political committees and allied groups um the dnc's total cash is actually negative 4.5 million uh which seems less than ideal uh what do you make of the overall disparity there i would say one of the funniest things I've read in a long time is there was a political reporter was passing along. It was Natasha Karecki, I think, was passing along some of the spin from Democrats. And one of the spin from some of the Democrats about this was, well, we had all this money in 2024 and we lost anyway.

43:49So let's try running it back with no money. That's right. In 2024, we had a candidate and we lost. Let's try no candidate. That's good thinking. Here's what I'd say. it is bad when the DNC has negative money. Okay, that is bad. It is not as consequential as I think people on the internet think. The DNC is not intimately involved in funding House races or Senate races. That is the DCCC and the DSCC. They have less money than the Republican counterparts, but that's a much narrower gap. And then where Republicans are truly crushing us is in super PAC and nonprofit money, and dark money. And that's not even counting all of the hundreds of million dollars in the AI and crypto super PACs, which are mostly going to help Republicans.

44:39But where Democrats are crushing is our candidates are raising a lot more money than their candidates. And here's why that matters, because every dollar in political fundraising is not equal. By law, television stations have to sell TV ads to campaigns run by candidates, the actual candidates, at what is called the lowest unit rate. They have to do that. What the going rate is is what they charge a candidate. They gouge the living shit out of super PACs. So super PACs in the last 60 days before an election are paying two, three, four times the amount of the campaign. So let's take North Carolina, right, where Cooper's raised a gazillion dollars.

45:23Let's say the Republicans plus Michael Watley is the Republican nominee have$80 million. That's equivalent to$20 or$30 million of Roy Cooper's money. And so it is bad. We should have more money. It is bad that we are being outraised like this. But give money to campaigns because those dollars go further. which you can do by going to boatsaveamerica.com and we'll tell you the best place to send your money don't want to be wasting any of it seems like Trump is responding to the grim political outlook with his tried and true method of firing people so he's reportedly considering forcing out more members of his cabinet Lori Chavez de Ramer, the labor secretary, resigned this week in scandal following Christine Noem and Pam Bondi, there's some speculation that Howard I almost just said Nutlick you can say that it's natural now no I guess maybe maybe Nutlick could be next or possibly Cash Patel who's again not having the easiest time Tulsi Gabbard too could be oh I saw Tulsi Gabbard yeah Cash is having trouble rebutting the Atlantic story that did lead to his new nickname J.

46:34Edgar Poozer here's Patel and his boss acting AG Todd Blanche responding to questions about the Atlantic story at a DOJ press conference on Tuesday. Let's play the clip. Can you say definitively that you have not been intoxicated or absent during your tenure as FBI director? I can say unequivocally that I never listen to the fake news mafia. I'm like an everyday American who loves his country, loves the sport of hockey, and champions my friends when they raise a gold medal and invite me in to celebrate. I've never been intoxicated on the job. Obviously, you've read the Atlantic Art Room. That's now a subject of a defamation lawsuit.

47:11I absolutely did not read that article. You're being extraordinarily rude. And I know maybe that's part of your profession, but please just stop. Your lawsuit contends that you were not able to log into the system. What did you think after you were unable to log into the system? Let's have a survey. How many of you people believe that's true? It was never said. It never happened. I was never locked out of my systems. Anybody who says... Your lawsuit says the opposite. Your lawsuit says the opposite. It was the key line from the reporter at the end. Meanwhile, the Times reported on Tuesday that the FBI began investigating one of the New York Times reporters, Elizabeth Williamson, after she broke the story last month that Patel has had has assigned FBI SWAT teams to protect his girlfriend and drive her to her concerts because she is a country music sensation and even a hair appointment.

48:02Patel is now denying that the FBI investigated, even though the Bureau basically confirmed to the Times that they had looked into Williamson's, quote, methods. How hard is Kash Patel crushing it right now? What do you think of that for his conference? Oh, man. He's so uncomfortable in every situation. Yeah. He's just trying too hard at all times. Just an average, everyday American who loves hockey. The lawsuit is helpful. if you read the lawsuit because it does detail every allegation that is bad in the Atlantic piece and one helpful page just just puts them all down one through what was the Atlantic article so long you couldn't get through it yeah no it basically gave you the summary of it right in the lawsuit um and and did essentially admit that the story about not being able to log into his email system was true um do you think do you think Trump gets rid of cash I don't know it's like even more than bondi and christy gnome i think that this would be seen as an admission of failure on trump's part at least the other yeah it just i don't i mean i mean first of all trump's uh uh you know had never had a drink he doesn't drink and so i think he doesn't like the idea that someone is like running around drunk in the fbi and um not because he like i think this is all through the prism of like it makes trump look bad right this is not about he doesn't care about like the safety and security of the country and also what trump wants is revenge on his enemies and i mean look that that press conference was about uh indictments they brought against the southern poverty law center um for it seems like crazy charges but yeah um but uh so i think trump's annoyed with that so we'll see i don't know i would have said i said this on tuesday's show but i i would have said no he'll keep him if it was before bondi and gnome but now that he's got those two out.

49:56I feel like he's got a taste of like, oh, I fire someone. It's a story for a day and then we move on. So would you, I know we don't predict on this show, but if you were on some sort of prediction market platform, would you put any of your hard-earned coin on the idea that Cash Patel will not be in this role on Thanksgiving? Yes. You think he'll be gone by Thanksgiving? Yeah. I think they'll, yeah because he definitely posts midterms not definitely but I feel good about saying like if you told me like by 4th of July I'd be like yeah you think post midterms but definitely before the end of the year I think so I'd put money on that I don't know how much money but I'd put money on it speaking of money and staff behaving badly it is our solemn duty to discuss the case of Julia Varvaro the 29 year old who is serving as deputy assistant secretary for counterterrorism at the Department of Homeland Security.

50:55Don't worry about it. That's not a big job. According to a former romantic partner who filed a formal complaint against Varvaro, she is actively on dating sites where, quote, sugar daddies agree to fund the lifestyles of younger women, including one called Seeking, where she offered, quote, mutually beneficial relationships. According to the Daily Mail, the whistleblower slash ex said he'd spend $40 ,000, not betting that on cash leaving, on gifts and travel for Varvaro over the course of their three-month relationship, and he thinks she's under financial stress that constitutes a national security risk.

51:29Seems like the government agreed because she was placed on administrative leave after the story came out. As you know, Dan, our producers are constantly urging us not to kink shame on the show, even though I continue to stress that kinks that constitute a national security threat do not count and traditionally have been frowned upon at the highest levels of the federal government. What if Threaty National Security is your kink? Well, then... Then what do you do there? I don't know. Ask the producers. Yeah, no. If people want to go on wherever this is to get some sugar daddies, that's fine. If you want to be a sugar daddy, that's fine.

52:06If you want to be a sugar daddy, that's fine. Jon Favreau, April 23rd, 2026. Just, you know, just when you have a government job, especially one that involves counterterrorism and Homeland Security, I don't know. You don't want to put yourself in a position of being blackmailed. I have to admit, too, that when we were slacking about this, yesterday was on my plane. I did not know about this story. It was all news to me. Then I went to my computer, and I was about to type in sugar daddy politics, and I thought better of it. There's a lot of pictures of this guy, of the sugar daddy, with her that the Daily Mail has published to everyone else.

52:45And there's one right as we started recording, of course. Of course, our old friend, Travis Helwig, who used to work here, sent it to me and it's just um it's just the sugar daddy sitting next to her with a little sign that says she's horny again fine no but if you're deputy secretary for counterterrorism at the department of homeland security may be less fine counterpoint um on the scale of corruption in this administration this is fucking quaint well it's not corruption necessarily it's just it's a risk it's also a corruption risk oh i guess yeah but it's all but there's a black The reason that a normal FBI cares about all of this, the reason they all did interviews with all of us before our security clearance, stuff like that, is the idea is that if you have lied to the FBI or you have secrets that you haven't revealed or some foreign actor or someone can blackmail you and say, if you don't do this for me, I will reveal publicly what I know about you, that you go on this website or whatever, then you are more likely to do the thing that the foreign government or actor wants you to do.

53:47that's the whole reason anyway that's that that's that Dan sugar daddies for dessert sugar daddies for dessert that's what we got for today alright when we come back we will talk to The Atlantic's Mark Leibovich about the shit show in California

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55:52Mark Leibovich, welcome to the pod. Great to be back with you guys. Good to see you here in DC. Thanks for letting us back in the town you rule, Washington, DC. Yeah. Mayor of DC, they call him. That's me. Yep. You know how all these parties I'm blacklisted from? I'm not even invited anymore. Really? Oh, man. Yeah, you were blacklisted from ours until So we just... I know. That was unintentional, unfortunately. It would be more fun. It's all right. Just don't make... Well, I won't say it. I won't say it. So you visited our fair state to report on what you and Mike Murphy lovingly referred to as the stupid circus, a.k.a.

56:27the California governor's race. Well, I guess I kind of echoed him. Yeah, you repeat a few times. Which I love. The stupid circus. Mechanism. I think that's a good mechanism. Take the quote and echo from it. Good device. You start the piece at a Little League game with Eric Swalwell. which you know, quote, felt consistent with the wholesome image that the campaign had been straining to project of late for reasons that would become clear soon enough. It made me laugh out loud. Did you get any bad vibes from your conversation with him? I got bad vibes from everything I had heard about him going into the conversation.

57:00This was one of those things where I'd spent the whole week just sort of touching as many bases as I could. And Swalwell basically lives here. I don't know where he lives now, but he lives in D.C. You know, back in the quaint days when he was getting heat for like not really living, spending that much time in California. And that was like a scandal for him. He was, you know, he's here a lot. His kids are here. His wife is here. Oh, here in D.C.? Here in D.C. Yeah, yeah. He lived. I mean, he played a place on Capitol Hill. So, or at least he used to. So, don't know where he is now. But he is, look, I'd heard everything.

57:32It was starting to perk up on social media, but that was kind of commensurate with whatever momentum he had because there was definitely some movement to him. And Trump did him a huge favor. Well, I guess Patel did him a huge favor by releasing these sort of like completely ridiculous 10-year-old file that found no wrongdoing. So, you know, a great way to get elected statewide in California is to be a big target of Donald Trump. And, you know, Adam Schiff proved that and Newsom, I mean, well, he certainly got Prop 50 probably over the finish line. So I thought so. But I was thinking, you know, how far does this have to go before?

58:12I mean, do I ask, do I bring this up at the end or do I wait for another conversation? But, you know, there is. There was no other conversation. Well, there wasn't. I mean, literally three days later, the implosion happened. But, I mean, you guys know there's a big gap between stuff that everyone talks about and reportable, actionable stuff. And to the eternal credit to the San Francisco Chronicle first, later CNN, I mean, they nailed it down and looks like it was kind of tip of the iceberg. So, I mean, I definitely caught – I knew the reputation. I mean, he's a perfectly – he can present. I mean, he's a thoughtful-ish guy.

58:53I mean, he's kind of Adam Schiff light in some ways, except without with with all the personal baggage. But so, yeah, I knew something was coming and they were clearly very self-conscious about it. It was like and he was going over the top about his kids Little League thing. I mean, he didn't, you know, understandably want to keep his kids out of it. But it was a whole dad thing. He brought his wife along. She seemed very nice. So it was a little over the top. In all your reporting, for people who aren't from California, haven't been paying attention to the race, why is this the field? It's a great question.

59:30I mean, the short answer is Kamala Harris, Alex Padilla, who apparently everyone wanted to run. I'm not sure I'd buy that. I think there's a little bit of revisionist history there, but they're big names. they would have, if not cleared the field, definitely would have probably guaranteed 25%. Certainly Kamala would have maybe a little more. And George Clooney lives in France, as you know. Yeah. And Newsom's term limited. I mean, there are quite a few, I think, quite talented members of Congress from the delegation. I think a couple of mayors. But again, there's not like a giant in the race. And I don't know if Kamala would have been that person, but there wasn't.

1:00:16So when you have just the math of seven Democrats splitting their votes seven ways, two Republicans who are complete unknowns, and I wouldn't think that electable in California under regular circumstances, they're just splitting their vote two ways. This is the math issue. So the Republicans, for anyone who doesn't know, there's a runoff system, jungle primary, top two finishers in the June 2nd primary, regardless of party, go on to the November election. And in a lot of the polls, the top two finishers have been Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, the sheriff of Riverside County, just basically two Republicans that no one's heard of, but they could get there in November and there can be no Democrat on the ballot.

1:00:57And California is interesting because it's such a big state that it's almost impossible for anyone to be known in it. And we've just had this situation where our last three governors were Gavin Newsom, who was quite famous when he eventually won because of the gay marriage. Jerry Brown, who had been governor before and was a national figure and run for president. And Arnold Schwarzenegger before that. And if you are a member of Congress, it's so expensive to run for governor there. It's almost impossible for anyone to raise, unless you're a member of Congress with a national profile, which Swalwell sort of had, it's impossible to raise the money to run there.

1:01:30and you just possibly get named ID because we have a million media markets and no one can become famous. And so I think Padilla, who was a statewide elected official before he became senator, even if he had run, he still would have fit into this mix because he's no more well-known than Javier Becerra, who had been attorney general and HHS secretary. That just made me think, not to get us off on a tangent, but don't you think that's the future or where we are now of national politics at the presidential level too? Like it just seems like if you go back, the nominees of each party, who the president ended up being for the last 10, 15 years, just the way the attention economy works now.

1:02:08If you are not famous, it is very hard to become famous out of nowhere in national politics and in a national level. You have to be someone who is a master at attention, right? Like Pete Buttigieg is the example of someone who became famous. He's the one example. So every other candidate in the 2020 Democratic primary finish in order of name ID at the outset other than Pete Buttigieg. No, but there's a wild card here, which is relevant to this race, which is Tom Steyer, who basically became known, got actually under debate stages in 2020. It was actually – he finished seventh in New Hampshire in, I think, sixth in Iowa or something like that.

1:02:42He finished third in South Carolina, I think. Did he really? He danced with juvenile on stage at the end. That's what people remember about that. Yes. I mean, actually, no one really remembers that Joe Biden was rescued in South Carolina. It was only that. No. So Tom Steyer, I mean, he basically spent$140 million so far in this race. I mean, it's really quite something. I mean, his strategy is spend as much money as possible, put as many ads out there as possible and take the most liberal position possible. And maybe that gets you home. I mean, Swalwell wasn't was known, but that's because of MSNBC and CNN.

1:03:14I mean, it was and hearings. Right. So but that's all national nationalized political news and very Trump centric. Becerra, he's one person like surprisingly absent in your piece. Is that did they did they not give you an interview? You know, so that was just I mean, when I wrote it a week ago, he was nowhere. And I kind of had to make I mean, I had, you know, twenty five hundred words. I took about 4 ,000. And there's a lot to explain. There are a lot of characters. And Becerra seemed kind of back in the pack. And a lot of it's just logistical. I mean, I was out there to cover this debate. The debate was canceled.

1:03:50I had 72 hours. I basically could only stick around Southern California. He was in Northern California. So, I mean, there's sometimes not a lot of rhyme or reason. He also might just not have wanted to talk to me, as Steyer and Porter didn't. Did he? What did you hear about Becerra? Which was a huge mistake on there. um not much i mean i he i mean i really i'm trying to figure out um he's had the surge is real with bizarra like he's it's now been a number of polls where he's either in tied for first or right after that and that the money has followed and i'm just like what what happened yeah well i mean the numbers thinned i mean i mean betty yee who was at one percent she dropped out too so i mean that's a number but i mean swallow dropped um and there was a sense for at least a couple days that Steyer was just going to be, okay, he's going to inherit the wind here.

1:04:38And I think there was an immediate backlash. And a lot of people I talked to were just instantly just offended by that. Just part of it is just sort of like the basic American ideal that has hostility towards buying an election, which is basically what this is. And also the guy doesn't particularly present all that well. And I think Becerra, if he ever got a first look, got a first and a half look or something like that. And he's quite credentialed. I mean, he was in the Biden administration. He was the AG in California. He's out there. But there was a debate last night. I don't know how well he did.

1:05:12What did you guys think of the debate from what you saw? Dan, what did you think? I saw highlights of the debate, and then I watched parts of it on 3XP this morning in my one hour to do this.

1:05:25If Becerra had delivered a great performance, he could have essentially locked up a spot here, I think. But he did not. And so that leaves the I think you leave the debate still wondering. Who the candidate is who could actually solidify in this field, because people were really hoping it was going to be Becerra, you know, and California races are largely funded by interest groups, the California teachers, the environmental folks, trial lawyers. And they would rally around him. Well, they could have they're looking for someone to rally around because Swallow had a lot of these labor endorsements.

1:05:57Some of one of them has gone to Steyer since then. but he could have seized the momentum and I'm not sure he did. Also not sure how many people watched any of it so it's hard to say. I thought Matt Mahan was aggressive in a way that he needs to get attention, right? And so I thought he did ball there. Steyer took a lot of incoming which I was surprised, I guess because he's still kind of the front runner and so it was a lot of people attacking Steyer. Becerra didn't seem like... I thought Becerra and Katie Porter were both kind of quiet in the debate. They didn't have a lot of big moments. Yeah, Porter was a little better than I think.

1:06:31I mean, I don't know if people are going to give her a second look. She kind of stalled. I mean, she, like Swalwell, had a bit of a national profile, was a very effective kind of anti-Trump Democrat during the first term and didn't get a lot of traction. I mean, there were some pretty nasty viral videos about her that she caused. I mean, one is sort of jumping down the throat of a staff member, just yelling at a staff member, yelling at a reporter, a couple other things. So some reputational issues. Newsom told you he wouldn't endorse unless it's a break glass moment. What's your read from talking to him, both his relative absence in this race and his seemingly inevitable 2028 campaign?

1:07:13Or his preference. His preference. His preference. I would say, okay, I have some, I think some informed wisdom on that. I mean, I think he is as underwhelmed as a lot of other people are. A lot of other Democrats are about this field. I think he hasn't been that shy about it privately. Even he told you, he said, I think the field is interesting. Yeah. This field has a great personality. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. Yeah. You know what? I'm not. Yeah, exactly. Yeah. So there's that. I mean, he, I think, was looking to have some kind of Becerra breakout. I don't think he has issues. I think he's fine with Becerra.

1:07:54He doesn't like Mahan. I think he has reservations about Porter. I think he has reservations about Steyer for a lot of reasons. But I think that he was really looking for a reason to have someone like Becerra sort of make his decision for him. So we'll see. I don't know, though. I mean, I think he would love to. A real process of elimination pick. Yeah, it's not. I mean, unfortunately, you know, Newsom, I mean, he's not always the most decisive guy in the world. But I do think that his indecision here is quite or his hesitation here is sincere. And I think it's reflective of a larger ambivalence among Democrats.

1:08:36He did endorse the lieutenant governor's race this week. He did. He did. So he can do it. It is allowed. And he has experience as a lieutenant governor. Yes. So it's your favorite weekend of the year. It is. Your Super Bowl. The White House corresponds to it. My Mardi Gras, the whole thing. I guess the only thing different about this year is that Trump's going to be there at the dinner for the first time since 2011. First time as president. Yeah. That'll be interesting. What do you think, though? Has anything changed? Has the dinner regained any of its splendor from years ago? When are you getting to the Grindr Party?

1:09:10I haven't been invited to that. So here's the thing. Okay, full disclosure, I've known you guys a long time. I'm 60 years old now. Okay, I'm - Spring chicken in Congress. You look great. Thanks, I feel great. You're 20 years younger than the median Democrat. That's true, yeah. Am I too young for the Senate? I don't, I mean, I will do a Saturday night. First of all, now that I'm not at the New York Times anymore, I can go to the dinner. The Atlantic has, I think, two tables. Oh, yeah, I was going to ask about the Atlantic. They asked me. I went last year. I think I went the year before. where they asked if I wanted to go.

1:09:43And I wasn't sure I was allowed to say no, but I tried and they accepted my answer. Although I will say, I don't know if this is mystique or luster or intrigue or whatever, but from a pure voyeuristic point of view, I mean, I think Trump almost certainly has something planned. I mean, I think like the gracious - Like a mass arrester. No, but some, like a really - You ever see the red money? No, I mean, it would not surprise me at all if he was just intentionally antagonistic, prepared something not the least bit clever, not the least bit funny, not the least bit gracious. I mean, to think about all the opportunities he's had to play that game.

1:10:21I mean, starting with the Al Smith dinner and when he was with Hillary in 2016. And I don't think he would have accepted this. I mean, I think part of him just thinks, all right, what a spectacle. I'll be in the middle of it. You know, who knows how many opportunities I'll have to do this. It'll be different. But I'd be shocked if he didn't have something antagonistic planned. And I mean, the media is not organized. I don't know what they're going to do, but it's but it'll be it'll be kind of a reality show, which is what he does. And I mean, I don't think there's like a great august and, you know, beyond reproach tradition of the White House Correspondents Dinner that could be lost and that he could soil like he soiled other institutions around Washington.

1:11:04But I do think that, I mean, there could be some friction there that will be worth watching. And I'm kind of glad I don't have to be there for it. Don't you think it's going to be a problem when his plan runs headlong into those First Amendment pins that the reporters are wearing? That'll do it, man. So when I was – can I tell the story? Now you have to. So I was – when I went to college in the 80s, I graduated college in the 80s, University of Michigan. They wanted to give an honorary degree to Nelson Mandela. and there was some regent or some rule, the Michigan regents or something, he couldn't be, if you can't be there in person to receive your honorary degree, you can't get your honorary degree.

1:11:45Nelson Mandela had an excuse. We all know what that was at the time. And there was an alternative. Those of us who were protesting that wore like a big button, and I wore, you can see on my graduation gown or my thing, it was a Nelson Mandela button, so that was my protest there. You can tell that story. I thought you were going to say you accepted the award on his behalf. I thought that's what I was going to say. Wouldn't that have been fun? Liberal reporter comes out pro-Mandela. Yeah, right? You know what? You'd be surprised. Resistance. No, so - What do you think about, I mean, Trump has investigated reporters, has trashed the press, has stomped over the First Amendment.

1:12:25His Secretary of Defense, who is a guest of the Paramount Corporation, has kicked the reporters out of the Pentagon. What do you, like, talk to me about how the press sees, thinks about going to that dinner in that context. I think it's, well, I think it's uncomfortable at best. I mean, look, I mean, the Atlantic is still going. And I mean, I assume. You guys have been invited to some signal chain, so it's okay. That's right. I mean, everyone in the group chat gets a table. No, I mean, look, look, just, I mean, this week, I mean, like, Sarah Kirkpatrick, my colleague, I mean, she wrote this Kash Patel story.

1:12:57They filed a lawsuit two days ago, which, I mean, that's a little bit standard. I mean, like, nasty story. It's a constitutional response. It's a constitutional response. Yes, correct. But I don't see how many – I mean, I don't know a lot of journalists who are excited about it any more than they would normally be. Now, there's sort of like a sport around you have to sort of roll your eyes at the whole thing. It's like, oh, I'm above it, but my bosses are making it. And I mean, you can also get a lot of work done. I mean, if you're one-stop shopping and you want to talk to people and stuff. But no, but I mean, I think the dissonance between what Trump talks about, what the administration has done, and what the dinner is supposed to stand for kind of is pretty obvious.

1:13:45I mean, won't that be highlighted when the Wall Street Journal gets the reward for their Epstein letter story? That'll be an interesting scene, right? I mean, I do wonder about it. I mean, I was actually I still think there's a nonzero chance that he could pull out. Yeah. But who knows? 250 journalists, Dan Rather, Sam Donaldson, signed an open letter demanding that the White House Correspondents Association use the podium to condemn Trump by name and toast the First Amendment. You think there's any chance they do that? I was going to say something snarky, but I would say no. I don't think there's a chance.

1:14:20Yeah, like I thought it's funny because the first time I'm like, well, that's not going to happen. But I'm like, what? Why should I? I could imagine a condemnation that is not so harsh and unfair that it like I could imagine doing it in a thoughtful way. Yeah, I can see that. But I don't I mean, who's the president of the Correspondent Association? Well, actually, it's Donald Trump. Marco Rubio. It's now the White House. Yeah, the White House. I mean, the whole thing is, it's always been bizarre. It's more bizarre now. The best argument that the media organizations can make is the money goes to pay for scholarships for young journalists.

1:15:00Scholarships, yep. Are there ways to raise money for journalists of scholarships that don't involve a toast to a president who disbanded the White House press pool? Maybe, but. Yeah. Yeah, the toast to the president of the United States is always, I mean, I don't care who the president is, it just strikes me as distasteful. Yeah, the whole thing. The toast is crazy. Imagining the toast tonight, whenever it is, Saturday night, it's crazy. It is. It's one thing to be there with him, which is like you can debate that enough, but the actual toast is just, what are we doing? There are two reasons to go.

1:15:35I mean, one, the comedians can be good. No comedian this year, though, right? Mentalist. It's a mentalist. Forget that. The manosphere's mentalist. And there are certain moments when presidents can, you know, with good timing, I mean, the guy you worked for can do well. I don't think Biden's talks were terribly good. Bush had his moments, I thought. Clinton had his moments. I don't know. I mean, but those days are long gone. Last question for you. This town came out in 2013. If you were writing the 2026 edition, what's the opening scene? Who's the central character? opening scene oh man you put me on the spot can we do it for you yeah please you're at Butterworth's no that story's been done isn't there another what about that club I thought I texted you about one there was a funeral there was another funeral I mean there have been a lot of funerals I mean because you because you opened this town as people know it yeah yeah yeah I mean here's the thing I mean oh there was a funeral wasn't it Carter's were you at Carter's funeral I've done a lot of okay so here's the thing since that book came out or Chaney The New York Times, I did do a Cheney piece.

1:16:45And I've been assigned a number of pieces. I remember one of the last pieces I did for the New York Times, I was kind of playing out the string, cleaning out my desk, and Elizabeth Bumiller, my boss, walked over to me and said, hey, you know Bob Dole died. And the funerals at the Kennedy Center, or not the Kennedy Center, at the National Cathedral on Friday, you got to cover it. So, I mean, there were several moments like that where I was kind of became the funeral guy. That was during COVID, too. I remember, like, and it was a huge deal to wear a mask because you were in a cathedral, you are packed with elderly people, you know, signs everywhere, wear a mask, wear a mask, DC rules, the whole thing.

1:17:24And I remember looking, I was sitting in the press area right above where the Senate was seated, where most of a lot of the sitting senators were. Every single one of them was wearing a mask, except for Ted Cruz, who was being completely ostentatious about it. And, And, you know, we're talking elderly people. You know, there's no vaccine yet, you know, right across the way. And, I mean, it was a church. I mean, just the whole thing. And, you know, he probably got a shout out for it. Anyway, there, the problem with, I mean, Tim Russert, that was the thing, though. I mean, the critique, which seems very quaint now, was that there was this one world, one Washington, you know, overly chummy world between the media and the money people and the lobbyists and the former people and the elected officials in the White House and Congress.

1:18:10And that was what was insidious at the time, which, of course, in retrospect, seems like a comedy of manners. I mean, the fact that Trent Lott and John Breaux, a Democrat and a Republican, a Republican and a Democrat, would go into business together and make money, I mean, that was like a scandal. And, I mean, again, it's almost, I'm not embarrassed by it, but it just gives you a sense of how much time has passed. And the second book was Suck Up Culture, but it was really around Trump. Trump, yeah. And that would be - The second term does feel different. I mean, I do think, okay, so I think that it's kind of running on two tracks now.

1:18:48It's suck up culture around Trump, which is orders of magnitude worse now. I mean, it's just, it's gone beyond cult level. But there's also, so my book was called Thank You for Your Servitude. I don't know if I can talk about this, but I will anyway. Jacob Weisberg has a book coming out called Profiles in Cowardice, which I read like a part of it and it's it's a similar way there's a lot of that I mean it's sort of of a piece to that I don't know I mean I do think that it's hard to think of like what the one what the merger of MAGA and sort of normie politics as we know it whether you know independents Democrats some Republicans yeah I mean my sense like I've been gone from the city for 10 years now, but my sense is there is just less of the stuff that was at the center of your book, which is basically this idea that everyone cosplayed rivals during the day, and then they went to the same cocktail parties at night and all hung out, and it was like one party circuit.

1:19:55It doesn't seem like that's necessarily still the case in the same way. Yeah, I don't see how it could. I honestly don't. But I mean, I just have people who, I mean, you've all lived here. I mean, it was actually possible to have bipartisan friendships. It's hard. I mean, MAGA, it's a whole different dimension, and they don't seem to want to have much to do with mainstream journalists, mainstream Democrats, people who have been critical of President Trump and vice versa. Democratic institutions. Yeah. I mean, again, I mean, I always thought that, and other presidents have tried variations on this, but, I mean, blowing off the White House Correspondents Dinner would have been a great move for any president, not just when Trump started doing it.

1:20:42I mean, I thought, you know, Obama, Bush, whoever would have gotten credit for it in some way. It might have been some grudging. People would have pitched up a storm. People would have complained, but they would have walked into your office. How disrespectful to the First Amendment. Yeah, that would have been terrible. Yeah. Yeah. Anyway, no, but so I mean, so but yeah, so Trump was obviously he wasn't on to something, but I mean, he just sort of he just trashed the whatever polite society existed here. That was probably too cozy for its own good. But now he's trying to just run it because he went to the alfalfa.

1:21:15Didn't he go to the alfalfa dinner? He did. Yeah, he did. Which makes the White House Correspondents dinner look like Buffalo Wild Wings. Yeah, that's pretty. That's a good line. No, I've never actually been to the alfalfa dinner. I staffed Obama at it once. Really? I ate Burger King in the back room while he spoke. Because they didn't have food for the staff. So Reggie and Marvin and I had to go to Burger King to eat. That's perfect. He probably had the best time of anyone. Mark Lebovich, thank you so much. Thanks, guys. Come to our party. We'll toast you. We'll do a toast to the First Amendment specifically.

1:21:51Bring your First Amendment pins. Oh, I totally will. Actually, you know what, though? they'll be like a kitty for us to put money in for the scholarships, right? Yes, yes, of course. The Pod Save America scholarships. Yes, for young podcasters. Young podcasters. Just start now. All right, thanks, Leibovich. Buy the tight t-shirts. Thanks to Mark Leibovich for coming on. Tommy will be back with an interview with Sarah Longwell on Sunday's PSA, and then Tommy and Lovett and I will be back with a new episode in your feed on Tuesdays. Bye, everyone. If you want to listen to Pod Save America ad-free and get access to exclusive podcasts, go to crooked.com slash friends to subscribe on Supercast, Substack, YouTube, or Apple Podcasts.

1:22:31Also, please consider leaving us a review. That helps boost this episode and everything we do here at Crooked. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our producer is Saul Rubin. Our associate producer is Farah Safari. Austin Fisher is our senior producer. Reed Churlin is our executive editor. Adrian Hill is our head of news and politics.

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