Which Democrats Have What It Takes to Win the White House?

28:47And the question is, is that the case here? One of the wild cards in Texas is that Trump won a solid victory there, but it was with a lot of Hispanic votes, particularly in South Texas. The two biggest losses in terms of support for Trump have been among Hispanics and young people. Hispanic voters, I think they're very sensitive to economic issues. They're a working class constituency in the main. And I think in South Texas, I think they were eager for border control. They weren't eager to be racially profiled. And I think because of all the stuff that ICE has done, combined with the economic stuff, he has completely dealt away the advantages that he gained among Hispanic voters.

29:41That puts Texas more in play. It also means that they're probably not going to capture all the seats they thought they were going to capture when they gerrymandered the state. Yeah, Texas is interesting. I think Tallarico is a uniquely talented candidate. Yeah, he's great. Yeah. He's very good. He is, I think, if anyone can do it, it's James Tallarico in this year, particularly against Paxton. he you know the his the latino numbers you point out are very notable pew has a poll out today which shows that trump's approval rating among latino trump voters is down 30 points since election day 2024 um which is you know that that's a big chunk of voters you know we saw this in the primary right it's a primary but talarico got more primary votes than kamala harris got votes in you know sometimes by magic two to two or three and some of these rio grand valley counties She got two or three times number of votes Kamala Harris got on election day in 2024.

30:37So there's obviously some persuasion. This is not just turnout. There's some persuasion happening here because a lot of these people, these Latinos who voted for Trump were registered Democrats. So it's interesting. No, I was going to say just on the Hispanic issue, I think one of the reasons Trump is harping on him and Christ is that I think it's very advantageous for Tallarico to be able to go into churches across Texas, including Hispanic churches, and as fluent as he is in scripture. And so I think Trump is trying to chip away at that. What were you going to say? I was going to ask you about the decision to have Obama come to Texas for him.

31:25Like, it is a race where he's got to win. You know, Trump won Texas by 13, I think. He's got to get a bunch of people who pull the lever for Trump to vote for him. Do you think bringing in Obama was a good move? You know, I haven't seen his numbers in Texas, but my guess is that looking at his numbers nationally, they're not bad. And there is a, you know, Obama's not campaigning that much for candidates at this juncture. I'm sure he will. But there is a stature thing. It kind of elevates Tallarico in the race. And he may just want to, you know, because of the whole vegan thing, as you said, Trump said, maybe he just wanted a guy who really appreciated a good beef taco.

32:10Yeah. And look, I think also, I imagine, I'd have to look at it. I imagine that Obama's numbers with Latino voters, even Latino voters who voted for Trump, are quite good. And so with like, Tallarico's smart. His campaign's being run by smart people. They're not just doing this because it's good for TikTok views. Like they obviously have looked at their data that suggests that with their target voters, Obama is a plus. And the other, it's not like there are a bunch of Republicans who are going to stay home because they're mad at Trump. And all of a sudden Barack Obama shows up for tacos one day in May.

32:38Like, OK, we're turning out. One last thing on this. I mean, one of the reasons Trump's going after Tallarico is because it seems pretty clear that he's decided to stay out of this race. There was a presumption that he was going to endorse John Cornyn as the most likely candidate to win. He's now been convinced that either of them can win. But the Paxton question is really an open one because he's a guy who is absolutely freighted with scandal. and while he's very popular with the Republican base, he could be very vulnerable with some traditional Republican voters in the suburbs around the big cities there.

33:17I don't think Obama's going to play badly with those voters. I don't think it's going to hurt Tallarico to have them there with those voters. So we'll see. But I will say, I mean, because of the fool's gold PTSD I have. I look at Iowa, for example, and I'm wondering, is Iowa ultimately going to be a better shot than Texas? Is Alaska, with Mary Peltola and the ranked choice voting system against a very weak incumbent in Sullivan, does that give you a better chance? Here's the thing. You have to win a couple of states where Trump won by double digits in any case. And you want as many opportunities as possible.

34:08So Democrats can turn to Alaska, to Iowa, to Texas, even, and I think it's the longest of them, but even Nebraska, you know, where you have an independent candidate supported by Democrats who did very well in a Trump landslide last time against Ricketts, the senator, the incumbent senator, former governor. You know, I think that there's a better than 50-50 chance that Democrats can piece it together, assuming that the wave is what we think the wave could be. And remember, the wave is more important in these Senate races. you know they may piece districts together to to hold down the house margin but statewide you know harder

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38:32Yeah, the Senate map is, I mean, it's challenging. It's kind of shocking. And it says everything that we'd be sitting here now and you'd say it's a coin flip that we take the Senate or maybe even a little bit better than a coin flip. When I look at it, But if you're just doing most likely scenarios, I would probably pick Alaska of the Texas, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska. Probably I'd pick Alaska just because of the fact that Mary Pantola's won in that state before. There was ranked choice voting. Dan Sullivan is particularly unpopular. And then I think maybe Ohio. Yeah. And then the other two. I think Ohio.

39:10Now, you know, Sherrod Brown came pretty close last time as Trump was carrying the state by double digits. And he's running against a senator who was appointed, who's never run on his own statewide and who doesn't have a, you know, a huge image in the state. So he's going to be more associated with Trump just by dint of having no real profile. I mean, he'll try and be, he was DeWine's guy. He'll try and run that way. But he can't run away from Trump. Trump won't allow him. And it's very hard, as you know, to run away from an incumbent president anyway. So, you know, Sherrod Brown was an economic populist before economic populism was cool.

40:00Uh, so, uh, I think, you know, I'm not sure that I would rate Alaska over Ohio, but I think that the most likely combination, if Democrats are to take the Senate, would be, uh, North Carolina, Maine, uh, Ohio, and Alaska. Yeah. I'm sort of stipulating Maine and North Carolina as must wins because winning three of the other four is hard. Yeah. But Plattner is going to, you saw David French wrote a very tough column in the New York Times this week about him. And I mean, not that people read that, but that was the tenor of what he, you know, they're going to go back at him with more ferocity. Um, and, uh, but Susan Collins, you know, after all this time and given the nature of the times is, uh, is a, uh, is a really vulnerable candidate, you know?

40:54So we'll see for all the reasons we discussed earlier. It's the Susan Collins thing is interesting because she has been like, she is a Republican in a state that Democrats win by nine points. We should beat her, should have beaten her in 2020. She's very tough to beat. She's been fortunate enough to be able to avoid some of the worst votes this time around because of the Senate margin. Yeah, they cut her loose to do it. Yeah. Yeah. She didn't have to vote for the beautiful bill. She got to take a pass on some of the worst cabinet appointments, but she still is a Republican in a democratic state and one who represents status quo.

41:32It's going to be a very fascinating race. And the question is, and you and I both know the folks working on that race is Ken Plattner withstand what will be a massive amount of scrutiny, some of it from his own side, because there are people pretty pissed about how this race played out. And every possible dollar dumped on his head with some of the nastiest. Yeah. And I mean, I think time will tell about that. Yeah. I heard someone tell me about a focus group in that state and someone was talking about Susan Collins and they said she's only bipartisan and when it doesn't count. And I think that's something that a lot of voters there kind of intuit.

42:14And, you know, she didn't vote for all of Trump's Supreme Court nominees, but she voted for some. She voted the ones that counted, for sure. As I pointed out to someone, you know, you can remove a tattoo, but you can't remove a Supreme Court justice. So, you know, we'll see how this goes. It'll be a fascinating, fascinating race. But I'm assuming that Plattner wins the race in the end. That's my hope for sure. You know, both in the House and the Senate, everyone keeps saying the campaign's about affordability, affordability, affordability, affordability. Like obviously just saying the word affordability is not actually a message.

42:53Although, you know, some Democrats have the habit of reading the stage directions instead of the script. And so they're just saying affordability over again. Is a message around affordability enough? Does it need to be bigger than that? What do you think Democrats should be saying? Well, I think that we have structural issues in our economy. The affordability issue is hitting people hard, but people have been kind of bobbing in the water and not gaining for a long time. And the polarity in our economy gets worse, and AI is going to turbocharge that, at least in the short run, maybe in the long run.

43:31And I really think, I don't know that it's necessary to win in November. There are discrete things you could propose in order to win in this November. But as I said, it's largely a referendum. Anybody who runs for president better have a much bigger vision about how you reform a system that was broken before. I've always, you know, I think it's a mistake to assume that when you run in 28, that the message could be, we're just going to kind of restore everything that Trump knocked down because people weren't that happy with the system before he knocked it down. I mean, they didn't feel they were being well served.

44:10And they felt the system was corrupt. They felt it was rigged against them. They felt that they weren't getting ahead. And it requires big structural kinds of answers. that, you know, to not only to put some equity into the system, but also to genuinely try and reform a system that is, you know, since our, you remember when our boss warned people about Citizens United in 2010, and Justice Alito was deeply offended by that and shook his head on the floor. Everything he said has happened. I mean, we are awash in money and dark money and pernicious influence. And it all conspires against working people.

45:05So campaign finance reform is really important. We also have to think, I think Democrats, you know, what strikes me, Dan, is that we have this battle going on between the great ideas of the 19th century and the great ideas of the 20th century, you know, tariffs and no civil service and so on from the 19th century. And then, you know, sort of Rooseveltian structures in the 20th century. And we're in the 21st century. And we ought to be thinking about how do we solve the problems of today using the tools of today and not be wedded to the old ways of doing things, be wedded to creating a country in which people can work hard and get ahead and where we can deal with some of our most pressing problems.

45:51But don't assume that the way we approach them in the 20th century is necessarily the way we have to approach them now. I think there's a lot of room for a genuinely reform oriented candidate who has some vision for the future to move this country. I also, now you put the quarter and you're getting 10 plays, but I, uh, I expect nothing less. I love it. I, uh, but you know, I've been thinking a lot about this election and, um, there no, no two elections are alike. Um, but if you were going to say, well, what is this election most like? It goes back to one that you will not remember, but I do, which is the election of 1976.

46:34It was the first election I ever voted in, right after Watergate. And the country was stunned by what happened in Watergate, by the corruption of Richard Nixon. And by the way, there was a real politicization of the Justice Department, of the CIA, a lot of these institutions. I mean, it was somewhat analogous to what we're facing today. People wanted a cleansing. They wanted to give Washington an angioplasty. They wanted a fresh start. And that's how Jimmy Carter emerged in 1976. No one would have known who Jimmy Carter was at this point. And he became the nominee of the party, and he won. I don't know who that person is, but I think that two things, qualities of character are going to be very important.

47:30Empathy, decency, honesty, integrity, humility, all the qualities that Trump doesn't have are going to be prized in 2028. And the second thing is I think being an outsider who's willing to really challenge orthodoxy in Washington, challenge the institutions on behalf of people is going to be a candidate who's well received. This is a perfect segue to what I want to get to because we're going to have a little fun here. I'm going to play some clips from some 28, potential 28 contenders and I'll get your take on them, both as messengers, what they're saying. But before we get to that, I want to, you sat down with AOC at the Institute of Politics before a live audience.

48:14One of her answers went quite viral. I'm going to play it for audience. I'm going to ask you about it. It was very clear this was a veiled threat, right? So the elite saying, if you want this job, you just stepped out of line. They assume that my ambition is positional. They assume that my ambition is a title or a seat. And my ambition is way bigger than that. My ambition is to change this country. Presidents come and go. Senate House seats, elected officials come and go. But single-payer health care is forever. A living wage is forever. Workers' rights are forever. Women's rights, all of that.

49:07So a couple of questions on this. That answer was a Rorschach test for people about whether she was going to run for president or not run for president. I wanted to see, how did you take that? Do you think that means she's planning on running for president, planning on running for the Senate, doesn't yet know? First of all, let me say, I thought it was a really powerful answer. You know, I heard Favreau say the other day that if you want to run for president, you better know what you believe. And what she was saying there is, I'm not in politics for a job. I'm in politics for goals that might impact positively on people's lives, the kind of people who I grew up with, the kind of people who live all over this country.

49:54And I think she really means it. And I think that authenticity is really powerful. That said, she said other things in this answer and elsewhere in this conversation that made me think she really isn't hungering for that job. And if I were her, what I would be thinking is, I want to have an impact. And I'm not ready to sideline myself. The chances of anyone getting elected president, no matter how good they are, are limited. And, you know, she's 36 years old now. She'll be 38. She could walk into that Senate seat in New York. and uh interestingly with this crowd of young people i said you know some people would like to see you run for president a bunch of them cheered and i said others would like to see you run for senator schumer's seat in new york louder cheers i couldn't tell they were cheering for her to run for senator or cheering for the fact that you said schumer was up yeah no it was definitely a combination of those two things um you know uh she's got a high class problem here she she get a lot of votes if she ran for president.

51:07But I think the way I interpret what she said is, I'm going to go where I think I can continue this fight for those things that I believe in and have the most impact I can have right now. And that led me to conclude that she is more likely headed to the Senate race than to the presidential race. I mean, nothing she told me, nothing I... Uh, but was that reading between the lines? I would be more surprised if she ran for president than if she ran for the Senate. And, and you and I both know that she would not be one of a hundred if she went to the Senate. Uh, she, you know, she would, you know, Barack, when Barack Obama went to the Senate, he was, you know, number whatever, 99, 98, uh, uh, in the Senate, but he was not the 98th member of the Senate.

51:56People were always interested in what he had to say. Yeah, I have seen, I worked for, as you have as well, worked for many politicians who were planning to run for president and who got this question for the years leading up to the actual announcement. And the general approach is to just start muttering words until the questioner stops paying attention. And they're terrible at it. And this is the, I mean, I say this without any hesitation, the best answer I've ever seen if anyone asked that question. Yeah. Well, you know, I mean, it really does help to be motivated by doing something than by being something.

52:32I mean, the world of politics divides into these two cohorts, the people who run because they want to be something. And that's the larger cohort. And then the smaller, more admirable and the more impactful cohort are the people who run for office because they want to do something. and um that doesn't mean they don't have a personal ambition but but you really you know honestly i would say this anybody who runs for president it's too damn hard to do it i don't mean just to win but it's such an arduous thing to do uh don't do it unless you know why you're doing it and and just you know and if you think that it's such a prize to live in a gilded prison you're making a mistake.

53:17You know, no one ever will, no one ever will feel sorry for a president of the United States, but you do change your life forever. And it's not all positive. I mean, you basically give up your, you know, a lot to do it. I, you know, I think I'm not saying that she won't run and I'm not saying that she won't run someday. But based on what I heard, and if I were betting on it, I would bet that she's going to the one place and not the other. I had the same impression that she was, that he clearly, the people who have wanted to be president since they were 17 years old. She said that. It's obvious in the answer.

53:56And she's clearly not one of those people. She said that. She said, I'm not one of these people who've been planning my campaign for an office since I was seven years old. She said, we all remember her the night she got elected to or nominated to the Congress. And she was in her headquarters in a billiards hall in the Bronx with some supporters around her with her hand over her mouth and her eyes wide open, watching these returns come in. She was as surprised as anybody. Whatever she decides. I think when she first came to Congress, she was clearly one of the best communicators in terms of how you communicate.

54:35She understood the modern media environment better than almost anyone in Congress, which is not saying a ton. But you know, she's doing Instagram lives. She's on social media. She knows how to do it. But I think in the last couple of years, she's also become the best, one of the best messengers in the party, like about what she actually says, like is very, it's very powerful. She came there. She's the youngest woman ever elected to the house. Um, I think we've watched her mature as a political leader, uh, during those eight years. I think that process is ongoing, You know, and I think she knows that, too.

55:08But she's an impressive person. The reason that she is so good. Yes, she knows how to use social media and modern media. But the thing that you can't teach and the thing you can't buy is the ability to communicate authentically and to give people a sense that you're talking honestly with them. that's what great great political leaders do and she has that quality so that's a hell of a thing to build on pod save america is brought to you by built we can all agree that housing is expensive rent mortgage doesn't matter which one you're paying it stings every month sounds like the california debates we've been watching governors seriously but built can make it feel a little better.

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58:25Chicago talks a lot. Hold on, let me step over here. People are talking too much. We debate about food, deep dish, tavern style, who's got the best beef. We yell across rooms, across blocks, across generations. Yes, nice earrings, Grammy. And now we're doing it on our phones too. Video calls from the L train, group chats that never shut up. Neighbors texting you the score before your TV catches up. Get a load of this guy. Catch up on a dog. Yeah. We've got thoughts. Because nothing here gets built without conversation. Nothing moves without connection. So, if you think you know AT &T, it might be time to rethink that.

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59:29All right, let's watch some other people, see what you think. I'm going to start with John Ossoff, who may or may not run for president, but he certainly has to win re-election in Georgia first. Let's take a look at one of his recent rallies. How does American politics really work. It's coin operated. Money goes in, favors come out. It's been running on secret money, corporate money, billionaire money, both sides. Both sides.

1:00:05Citizens United was the worst court decision in modern American history. He's singing from my hymn book there. Yeah, I know, I know. What do you think about him as a communicator? You know, he's a great communicator. I haven't seen him as, most of the time when I see him, he's behind a podium. And, you know, there are other elements of communication and I haven't seen a lot of that. Although I just spoke to someone, someone you and I both know who saw him at an event. You may have been at the same event because I think it was out west and said he was really, really good in kind of off the cuff interaction with people and so on.

1:00:45Listen, I take him seriously. You know, if you if you believe what I said earlier about the kind of candidate who will do well, he checks a lot of those boxes. And he hasn't been in, even though he is a senator, he has not been there long enough to be sort of corrupted in people's minds as a kind of fact, as a practitioner of inside the beltway politics, which he's not. So, you know, I mean, it's a quick turnaround. He's young. But I think youth also is an advantage in this election because after two presidents who were in their 80s, I think people are going to be really looking for a more youthful candidate.

1:01:33You raise an interesting point because I think he is the best speech giver that I've seen in a while. He, you know, there's a whole generation of politicians sort of raised on Obama who speak like Obama. And I think he does the best, like you can see it in the tone. He has some of the same pauses, the same cadence, but it doesn't look like Obama karaoke, which sometimes you get. Apparently, yeah, yeah, we've seen that too. He apparently does a lot of writing. You know, Obama, you know, he had great speech writers. you work with some of them, but they would tell you that, you know, they would give him a product that was in good shape, and then he would buff it up or add things that took it from one level to the next.

1:02:12And he, because of that, he was familiar. He felt organic to the copy he was reading. So I think he has that. But the other thing that people don't appreciate about Obama, and you would, because you travel around with him, like, you know, those 87 days we spent in Iowa, where he was, you know, doing six, eight, you know, stops a day more, even in small venues, interacting with people. He was very good at that. You know, you have to, running for president is a decathlon. It's not just one event. So you can be great at, you know, pole vaulting, but you still have to throw the javelin. And so the test of campaigns is, do you do all the events well enough to win?

1:03:03So I don't know that about Ossoff, but he's certainly a promising politician. Yeah. I want to see him, I mean, this is a very self-referential way to say, but can he pass the podcast test? Can he sit and shoot the video? I was just watching a clip of Obama. Well, that's subtle, Pfeiffer. Well, he's been on our podcast. He's done fine. But it's not really, can you come on Positive America hacks on tap. It's can you go on Rogan or all the smoke? Can you relate to people on a cultural, personal level that's not just politics? The test that Vice President Harris wouldn't take. Yes. Yes. All right.

1:03:35Let's do the next one is someone familiar to all of us, Pete Buttigieg. There is a powerful American majority for change and for the things we believe in. Because right now, you've got this administration that's created the illusion that their positions are supported by most Americans. And it's just not true. Most Americans agree that we should be taxing the wealthy more, not giving giant tax cuts to billionaires. Most Americans think it is nuts that we're being told we can't have nice things like rural hospitals and good roads and fully funded public schools at the same time that you've got billionaires paying a lower tax rate than the nurses in those hospitals and the workers who work on those roads.

1:04:18and the teachers who teach in those schools. What do you make of Pete? Well, look, I've said this before. He is as bright and thoughtful as anybody I've seen since Barack Obama in terms of his ability to sort of think in interesting ways and posit arguments in ways that really are clear and thoughtful. Um, and, uh, he's, he's a very, very talented guy. And, and, um, I, I really, I like him a lot. I mean, uh, and I think he's underrated in this, you know, I mean, when you hear conversations, he's not, people don't talk about him, but he, you know, every time you look at a poll and some of it's name recognition, yes, but he's, he's well regarded by, uh, Democrats And the things he's articulating out there kind of they square up with some of the things I'm saying.

1:05:20He's talking about renewal, not restoration. He's talking about reform, you know, like basic fundamental reforms. You know, now, you know, I don't know whether experience of the Biden administration is advantageous or not. Maybe not. I'm going to guess net neutral at best. This would be my guess. Yeah. Yeah. I wonder, I haven't ever had this conversation with him, whether if he had to do it all over again, whether he would have opted for that. He might be in better position than he was. You know, there's always this question about an openly gay man running his miracle ready for that. And look, the one thing that he did not prove in 2020 was that he could win black votes.

1:06:05And that is a really essential task for anybody to get through this process. You know, black voters in the South in particular are really, really important. And so, you know, there are questions, but the talent is undeniable. Yeah, I think Pete's incredibly smart. I saw him at an event recently and he just – he's so good off the cuff. He's so good answering questions. Yeah, and he does the podcast. He passes the podcast. Yeah, all those things. The thing that was always, I think, not like the black voters is like the mass. It's just impossible. You can't win the math as such with primaries across the South, the way delegates are allocated.

1:06:46There's no way to do it. That's why Obama won. It's why Hillary won. Right, right. It's why Biden won. Right. But the thing about Pete's communication in 2020 was it always felt to me like a little bit at a remove. move like he was so good and so polished that you know it just like there was this distance between i think it's a really i think it's an important observation yeah but i will say when he was on cnbc a few weeks ago and he was arguing with joe kernan yes i thought it was some of the best people like people go on and he'll have like at every word exactly right on fox news and he'll stuff uh sean handy into a proverbial locker or whatever else and it's incredible but he when he was on the show currently like he showed like a real he was so frustrated and so angered by the stupidity of and the unfairness of what krennan was saying that it was really was like a that was one of his most authentic moments i thought it was quite quite good and i think maybe indicative like his life has changed a lot since 2020 right he's had he's got married he's had kids he's like been he's been through times and i so i think you know i think it'll be i mean very interested to see how he's involved canada this time around because if so there's real potential And he benefits from the fact that New Hampshire is probably the first state and it's a place where he has a great base of strength.

1:07:59Yeah, and continues to pull well. Don't underestimate the value of having run the track before, you know, or just to use another sports analogy, he knows the lay of the greens. And running for president is not like running for any other office. So he knows the pressures of it. He knows the cadence of it. He knows this stuff. That is a valuable asset. All right, let's look at Andy Beshear, the governor of Kentucky. You've seen how some of this speak has crept into the Democratic Party, and we sound like we're talking down to people. We've got to talk to people and not at them. You know, Kentucky got hit by that opioid epidemic as hard as anybody, but maybe West Virginia.

1:08:43I mean, we've all lost people we love and care about. I didn't lose one to substance use disorder. I lost them all to addiction. If we want to push back against this president and what he's doing to snap, trying to hold hold hungry people hostage for political gain. It can't be that they'll be food insecure. It's got to be that they'll go hungry. We've got to communicate to people and the values that they know and how they would talk to each other. Electability is obviously going to be a huge issue for Democrats as it was in 2020. No one has a better electability story than this year. What do you make of him?

1:09:16Look, I mean, again, going back to the things I told you before, I mean, you have to look at him because he's an outsider. He's also a guy who, by the way, can go into those black churches and in a compelling way. And, you know, and in terms of empathy, most of the time when we've seen him over the last eight years, it's because his state has been beset by some natural disaster or, you know, in some cases, a horrific gun incident. And and he's really, really good at that. He's great at expressing empathy. I sort of agree with what he said there. The thing I would say is it's not just about the language that we use.

1:10:02It's about and I've said this a lot of times. My objection to Democrats since the Democratic Party has become a kind of metropolitan college educated party is we're still a party of working people or see us that way, see ourselves that way. But we approach them like missionaries and anthropologists. And we show up and we say, we're here to help you become more like us. And the implied message is that what you do really isn't as important as what we do, except then when we have a pandemic and then we're home and we're making our living on our computer. And they're out there caring for us, protecting us, making things, shipping things and doing everything it takes to keep the country going.

1:10:44And then we go out on our balconies and we bang our pots and we say, you're the essential worker until the pandemic's over. And then they sort of become invisible again. So I think it's more it's about more than just the language. We fundamentally have to think about what how we value people in our society. All right. Last one we'll do is Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro. We have an opportunity to have a real debate within our party about what we stand for, about what our affirmative vision is. It has to be about what we are going to do to make people's lives better. And I think that that is a debate that our party hasn't had for a good long while.

1:11:29And that debate is not only going to help the Democratic Party. I think it's going to be healthy for this country. And what I can tell you for sure is that I want to be a part of that debate. Bring the common sense sensibility of what we do in Pennsylvania to that conversation. Like Beshear, Shapiro has won the key set of Pennsylvania. He's likely going to win it again by a very large margin, which will bolster his electability case. What do you make of Shapiro? Look, he's a very talented and very smart. And what he said, I obviously agree with. Um, I, um, he's one of the guys who, uh, he can slide into sort of pigeon Obama, uh, from time to time.

1:12:14And he, he's taken a lot of, uh, uh, criticism for it. He's a, he can be a little irascible. Um, and for him, I think the important thing is to be real. He's so smart and politically savvy that sometimes you feel like he's giving the politically savvy, well manicured answer and you don't know what you don't see the person behind it. So those would be the concerns that I'd raise. But look, I thought, you know, I thought he should have been the vice presidential candidate in 2024. 24, probably good for him that he wasn't. But I think highly of him. And he's got some good stories to tell. That story about the sort of record pace at which they repaired the fallen bridge in Pennsylvania is a metaphor for something that Democrats need to struggle with is if you're the party of government, how do you assure people that government can work?

1:13:15And he's got some examples to underscore. He also, Dan, he's forged a relationship with working class voters and rural communities in his state. I think he does approach those voters respectfully and has built alliances there that I think is very useful and important and instructive. So again, you've got a good assortment there. I know you only have a short period of time, so you can't put all 106 aspirants up there, but that's a pretty strong assortment of candidates. Yeah. Shapiro, it's probably not discussed enough how popular he is in Pennsylvania. Being a popular governor of Pennsylvania is not an easy thing to do.

1:14:01This is a state that Donald Trump has won twice and has moved away from Democrats. We have moved away from Pennsylvania demographically as a party. He basically has a coalition that combines the new version of the Democratic Party with these college-educated suburbanites outside of the collar counties around Philadelphia with some of the numbers that Democrats like Obama and Clinton had in the rural parts of the state in the great expanse between Pennsylvania and between Philly and Pittsburgh. And it's very impressive. Let me ask you a question. And based on, you know, you've got your finger on the pulse of the left and the party.

1:14:41You know, the question that comes up oftentimes from Jews, and I'm Jewish, is, well, can a Jew get elected given the antipathy toward Israel now? And now he's been a very strong critic of Bibi Netanyahu. but how big an issue is that? Do you think that's an insuperable barrier for Democratic candidates? I don't, but you would know better. I don't believe being Jewish is a barrier that cannot be overcome for a Democratic candidate. I think that any Democratic candidate is going to have to have a vociferous criticism of the Netanyahu government. It's going to have to take very strong positions that would have seemed impossible a few years ago about conditions on aid to Israel, about funding the Golden Dome.

1:15:29I mean, even our, your close friend, my old boss, Rahm Emanuel, came out suggesting he would not be for that. I think what you cannot be seen, you don't want to be seen in a Democratic primary as the pro-Netanyahu candidate or the AIPAC candidate or someone who's associated with the Biden's administration's position or policy on Gaza. So I think he can do it, but those are going to be tricky waters for him to navigate, given some of the ways in which he's approached those issues in his past. Well, let me say - I think he's a change of rhetoric in recent times. Yeah, well, I mean, one thing you said, I quite agree with.

1:16:04The attitudes have shifted in ways we wouldn't have predicted because Bibi has done things we never would have predicted. Perhaps we could have or should have. But the way he prosecuted the war in Gaza, you know, I say this as a Jew, it's, you know, I was horrified and angered by what happened on October 7th. But that doesn't mean that I don't grieve for the children of Gaza, and that I'm not repulsed by the way that that unfolded. And I don't think you're going to find candidates Jewish or not who don't agree with that. One interesting thing is that they have an election in Israel in October.

1:16:53Bibi Netanyahu may be gone by the time this campaign begins in earnest. And you wonder whether that changes anything. Yeah. It's a very open question of what the world will look like when these candidates actually have to go get votes in New Hampshire or whatever other states in the early part of the calendar in early 2028. I did not play a clip from Kamala Harris. If you had asked me two or three months ago, I would have put the strong odds against her running. I think in the recent months, she's been out there more. She's been doing more things that suggest that maybe she's seriously thinking about running.

1:17:28What do you make of that? I don't know what to make of it. I mean, she obviously is making noises as if she's going to run. And you know, once you run for president, especially when you come as close as she did, especially under the circumstances she did, very hard to look around and say, why not me? But I also don't think America is going to, and Democrats are going to ultimately go for the back to the future candidate. You know, there's a lot of, there are a lot of seared memories of 24 and a lot of it don't have to do with her, but with her boss, you know, in the White House. But, you know, it didn't end well.

1:18:08There were a lot of Democrats who were hoping that it would. And part of it did have to do with her inability or reluctance to do the things that you have to do at that level. You know, go on those podcasts, be real, be open. And of course, the answer on The View under the withering interrogation of the people on The View, to not be able to answer the question that I think any sort of competent candidate at any level would know how to answer when asked, is there anything you would have done differently? She didn't have to say, yes, these things. She could have said, I'm grateful for the opportunity he gave me.

1:18:55I'm not going to critique him here. I'm here to tell you I'm not running to be the second term of Joe Joe Biden, I'm running to be the first term of Kamala Harris, and I'll tell you what I'm going to do. I mean, there are a million ways to have answered that question. She just couldn't find any of them. And those are the moments that define campaigns. Yeah. From her perspective, right? As you came very close, she believes, as many people in the campaign, that given more time, she might've actually won that race, or if she had not been thrusted, if she had a chance to actually, if Biden had just not run at all and she'd won a primary, she could have maybe actually won.

1:19:32No way to answer that counterfactual. But you look at one way she's leading in all the polls right now. And now you and I know, and everyone knows that oftentimes the person leading in the polls at the beginning is leading by dint of name recognition and nothing else. And that falls pretty quickly, like it did for Rudy Giuliani in 2008, Joe Lieberman in 2004. But it still is true that you're not winning the Democratic nomination without running up the score with Black voters across the South. And you look at that field right now, and she's the candidate best position to do that. So she could make an argument to herself about how she could win that nomination.

1:20:09Now, the question will be, and this was, I think, the experience John Kerry had when he was thinking of running again in 2008, is he was all ready to go, picked up the phone, started calling all his old supporters, and they were like, I'm with Hillary, I'm with Biden, I'm with Hillary, I'm with Obama, I'm with Edwards. And she might have a similar, I don't know what the appetite is. Probably, from what I understand, not just supporters and donors, but even some key staff. Look, I respect her, and she got thrust into a really difficult position, but I just don't see this. And yeah, I mean, I do think she's the beneficiary of early name recognition on this issue.

1:20:56She may well do, you know, really well with African-American voters in the South. But I keep thinking back to 2019 when she was a co-frontrunner with Joe Biden when she entered the race and she never made it to Iowa. And her numbers in those southern states weren't that good. So I don't know. I just don't have enough information to know, but I think she's going to receive some tough news from some of the people whose support perhaps she was counting on. Anyone I didn't mention that you have your eye on? Actually, it's kind of uncanny because you listed a bunch of folks who... You know, look, I got two guys from Illinois, right?

1:21:50Yeah. I was looking for a good Rom clip to play at the end for you, but I didn't want to do that to you. Look, Rom, you know, I would say that Gavin Newsom won the presidential primary of 2025. I think Rom is doing pretty well in 2026, at least with opinion elites. I mean, he's throwing out a bunch of ideas. He's really aggressive, you know, and we'll see where that takes him. Governor Pritzker is running for re-election, but it seems pretty clear to me that he's headed in that direction. And he's shown a lot more serious political chops than I would have expected when he first ran for office.

1:22:38And he does have affection among the Democratic base. you probably hear it in your own. And he's got, obviously, he's got the advantage of resources. So, you know, I wouldn't draw him out of the circle. You know, rumors emanate from Washington that Cory Booker might run again. He didn't do that well in 2020. but he's got talents, he's got gifts. And in an election that may be about sort of character and kind of the, you know, to borrow Biden's phrase, though, no one should use it, the soul of America, which honestly is going to be important in 2028. You know, he's a guy who can speak to that. But I, you know, I don't know if he can, you know, do appreciably better than he did.

1:23:36But I'm also like open to someone we haven't, you know, someone coming from somewhere we don't even know. Like I said, this is this is a thing, an election that's grooved for an outsider. And it may be, you know, you hear about Mark Cuban, you hear other people mention. So who knows? Who knows? I remember calling Jon Stewart in 2019 after Zelensky got elected president of Ukraine before Zelensky became, you know, the wartime leader, the Churchill of our time. And I said to Jon, Jon, you know, short Jewish comedians, they're all the rage right now. So, you know, don't count him out. All right. I think it's a great place to leave it.

1:24:23Jon Stewart for president. David Axelrod, thanks for joining us. always great to talk to you. See you in Chicago. Absolutely. Thanks, Dan. Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. Our show is produced by Austin Fisher, Saul Rubin, McKenna Roberts, and Faris Safari with Reed Cherlin, Elijah Cohn, and Adrian Hill. Our team includes Matt DeGroat, Ben Hefcoat, Jordan Cantor, Charlotte Landis, Kirill Pellaviv, David Tolles, Mia Kelman, Ryan Young, and Naomi Single. Our staff is proudly unionized with the Writers Guild of America East.

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