Ask Me Anything — Figma, Dirty Jokes, Running for Office & More

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27:05We're back with Prof G Markets. Let's keep going. How do both Ed and Scott approach analysis as a means of achieving conviction, i.e. what are the processes, avenues, metrics, and tools used to evaluate the future? I would note Tom Lee had a great definition on our last podcast with him of conviction and something I want to highlight. So he said, stubborn is believing in something when all the facts have changed. Conviction is riding through the volatility. And it's not easy to tell the difference until history has already passed. So back to the question, how do you approach analysis as a means of achieving conviction, Ed?

27:49Let's start with you. It's a really interesting question.

27:56Something I often, maybe this answers the question. Something that I often think about is an idea from John Maynard Keynes, the economist. And he had this idea called, it's called the Keynesian Beauty Contest. And this is something that we talk about on the research team. And it's pretty important. it. And basically, he made the link between, he was trying to describe what is the market, what is really happening in the market, which is our job on this podcast. It's our job of the research team. And he basically said that the market is like a beauty contest where the judge's job isn't to figure out who is the most beautiful person in the contest, but who do they think other people will think is the most beautiful person in the contest.

28:45In other words, it's not really what you believe. It's you trying to replicate and come up with an idea of what everyone else will believe and create an average for that. And his point was that that doesn't actually work in terms of truth-seeking. You get ultimately a very different answer if all you're trying to do is trying to figure out, okay, what does everyone else believe? What do they think? And then I'll come to my conclusion based on what they believe. And so something that we try to do because we are really in search of truth on this podcast, and it's hard to do that in the markets, is what do we actually believe?

29:24And that doesn't mean don't listen to everyone else's views. You need to understand what the consensus view is if you want to come up with a non-consensus view. But if you're saying something just because someone else said that, or you read some research report and it had a fancy name on it, and so, oh, that's what I believe now, then you've already lost. That's not conviction. That's groupthink. That's herd mentality. So that's at least a framework that I'm constantly trying to think. I'm constantly asking myself, do I believe that because someone said it and they have credentials and maybe that can be important?

30:01But it can't be everything. I'm always trying to ask, I believe it because I believe it. I think these things are true. I've looked at all the evidence and it's important to me these details. And so when I feel that way, that's usually a good sign that I have conviction. Scott? Yeah, I like that. Look, I used to look at everything through a strategy framework of what is differentiated, relevant, sustainable. I look at valuation metrics. But probably the part that's hardest but most important is I try to marinate and try, before I make a decision, to remove my emotions. Because I find my emotions sometimes, I backfill the analysis based on what I'm hoping or believing should happen.

30:49and just try to, that's the hardest part for me is figuring out a way to objectively look at a situation without having my emotions or, you know, beliefs, basically my biases. I go through all the proximity bias, confirmation bias. I go through all of them and try and remove them and then just look at it sort of with kind of starched almost in a sterile way. And I struggle with that. All that said, this next question is about Figma. Hi, Ed and team would love another analysis of Figma before the end of the year if possible. As you predicted, the stock had a massive pop the day of the IPO. I would love a reanalysis of the stock at its current price.

31:32I know that most shares are still in lockup periods through the middle of 2026. I'd love to get your guys' take on the stock. Very interested in it. I just want to note we're pre-recording this episode on December 11th, so the current price of Figma is about$38 a share. That could change. But Ed, let's start with you. I can't give you a super in-depth valuation analysis right now, but I'll give you something. First thing I would say, a lot of people I've seen online have been saying, you guys said that Figma was a buy and it went up and now it's crashed. I just want to clarify what we said about Figma.

32:07We said Figma was a buy at$33 because that was the IPO price. In fact, we actually said it started out at$27 and the IPO price kept on inching up and up. But we said$33 on Figma is a buy. Then it went public and it opens at like whatever it was,$120. It was above$100. It was something crazy, which we never said that that was a buy. We said that 33 was a buy, and then it goes and it opens at a crazy number. And to be fair, like, our advice wasn't very helpful because no one could get in at 33. I mean, even if you put the request in on like Robinhood or whatever, you got maybe one share. So it wasn't very helpful.

32:53But I just want to clarify, we said 33 based on that was the valuation analysis. And then the demand was absolutely insane, which says all of these things about the way the IPO market works and how crazy it is and the stuff we've talked about with the divide between private markets and public markets and how it's gated out to retail investors. That's a whole other story, but I just want to be clear on what we said there. Okay. So it's above a hundred. Then it comes down. It plummets. I think it's down like 70%. We're now at$37. dollars that's not a bad price we said 33 and we've just seen the earnings they grew at 38 growth on the revenue they have net dollar retention of 131 in other words people the existing customers they have are actually paying more and you look at the the valuation right now it's it's pretty good it's it's it's it's not bad it's trading at a higher multiple than adobe but I think Adobe is actually undervalued right now.

33:56Also, Adobe is growing four times slower than Figma. So I think it's, I'd want to look at it more. I think the lockup period is also a good point. The lockup period is going to end at the end of December. So maybe that would be the better time to buy. But I do want to just clarify what we said about that stock, because obviously it's been, had a wild ride, but we did not say buy it over$100 a share. Scott, you got in on the IPO. So how are you feeling now? I can't remember if I, I mean, by the way, I think our prediction was the IPO was going to be huge. And Randu, I think it got as high as 140.

34:34I like the number two player and it's more of a collaborative tool and we have people here use it. And the reason I like the company or the primary reason I'm real big is that if you go to any design, graduate design class, almost all of them are using Figma. so i think that you're going to see it start to absorb into the corporate market it's um i just think it's an incredible product and i like the guy who runs it and it doesn't have earnings yet so it's hard to look at the p multiple but if you look at it's got a market cap now of 19 billion uh i think adobe would buy this for 30 billion tomorrow so they tried to buy it for 20 a couple years ago and they've only grown since then so yeah and i I think its revenues are up 50 % since there.

35:20That's where I got to 30 billion. So I like it at this price. I don't, I mean, I'm going to, I'm not entirely sure, but I think I don't, I don't think I've sold a share. I think I ran, I think I ran it all the way to 140 and then down again. When I get in on an IPO and this is like kind of the country club, I don't know, code, code of the IPO investor. I don't, I generally don't buy stocks unless I'm willing to hold them for three or five years. I just don't want to be a trader. You know, that was probably stupid. It's easy to say now when it popped to whatever it was, 60 or 80 or 100 in like 48 hours, it might have been a time to get out.

35:59But generally speaking, and this is a flaw of mine, I hate to pay short-term capital gains, which makes no sense when you look at the price that I could have got out at. But generally, I want to be seen as a long-term investor that holds stocks for a while. This is a longer one, but I want to help this guy out. So, Scott, I just read Notes on Being a Man, and I really enjoyed it. One part in particular that stuck out to me was asking, what kind of son do I want to be as it relates to Scott's relationship with his father? I have a similarly fraught relationship with my father and have been trying to put all the past issues aside and focus on our relationship in the present.

36:39However, I struggle with the idea of letting my guard down while my mother is still alive, as the majority of my grievances revolve around the way he treated her, myself and my sister, when we were growing up. He's now happily remarried and has decided the past either didn't happen or it doesn't matter, which of course is easy in a glass house. And I can't help but feel like my letting go of the past would be an affront to the challenges my mother endured. So my question is this. Do you think you could have gotten to the wonderful place in your relationship with your father had your mother still been around to see it happen?

37:16What a good question. Look, I think that after what his, if it's similar to my situation, that he has the right to protect himself and protect his mother before worrying about protecting his father, adding value to his father's life. And if he personally would have a difficult time letting go of these things and needs to protect his own sense of well-being and justice and fairness and just isn't ready to have a relationship with his father, I'm not going to tell him, no, put away the scorecard and re-engage with your father. And if you really do think it would upset your mother, then I think you have to take that into account.

37:59These are very deeply personal questions. So I don't want to suggest that my way is the right way. It was just my way. And that, you know, at some point if he thinks, okay, I mean, the bottom line is I probably wouldn't have, I came to this, my mom died 21 years ago. And so after she was gone, it was a little bit easier for me. The things I would ask him to just consider are the following. One, was your father a better father to you than his father was to him? I think that's who we model. And if the answer is no, and this was just a bad person, I think you have an obligation yourself to just protect your own mental health and do what just feels right, first and foremost.

38:53Where I got to was it was going to make me happier to have a good relationship with my father. And the other question I would ask him is that if he did what I did, I think a lot of people, my parents weaponized the divorce or they weaponized me in the divorce. And that is they would, I was eight years old and my mom would say, I would leave for the weekend. My dad would pick me up and say, tell your father if the child support check isn't here by Tuesday, I'm calling his boss. And I would digest my stomach thinking about delivering that message to my father. And then on the ride home with my dad, I would tell my dad and my dad would say, tell your mother she's a bitch.

39:30and I'm not going to send the child support check. And I would have to deliver that message to my mother. Now, granted, it was the 70s. It wasn't like today where we reorchestrate our entire lives around children, but that was still a really stupid, unsophisticated thing to do and not a very kind thing. What I had a tendency to do and what I would ask him to be mindful of is you have a tendency to demonize one in a divorce. It's a bit of a war, it's a conflict. And especially back then, I think it's gotten much better. I think parents are much more mindful now But you have had a tendency, at least I did, to demonize one person and sanctify the other.

40:05And the person you're typically going to sanctify is the person who got you up in the morning and packed your lunch and stuck around for the hard part. And then you have an opportunity or a tendency to demonize the person who didn't stick around. And that is dad who goes off and starts a new family with a younger woman. And at least in my case, all of a sudden, my dad seemed to be continue ascending economically. while we ended up in just this shitty bad apartment in the valley, wondering how we were going to like fix our vacuum that had broken down because we didn't have the money. But what I did do, and I would just tell him to be cautious of, is there were good components to my father and he did try, but I didn't let any of that creep in because I decided mom good, dad bad.

40:49And then as you get older, you realize that people are deeply flawed and that no one is pure good and known as pure evil, but it helped me to recognize my dad was better to me than his father was to him and that he did try. But I'll finish where I began. He needs to affix his own oxygen mask and think about if he's ready to re-engage with his father. And if he isn't, that's fine. That's okay. He deserves that safety given the way his father treated him and his mother. And that what But I would also suggest is as the father gets older, just recognize, it sounds like his mom and dad are alive, they're both going to be dead.

41:31And just ask yourself, try and imagine after your parents are gone, how you wish you had behaved and what you wish you had said to them. Because they will leave. It's hard to imagine that people die when you're a young person. They do. And the nice thing I really treasure about my time with my mom and my dad is that nothing went unsaid. and just to maybe go through those exercises of asking themselves that question. Was his dad better to you than his dad was to him? Have you sanctified and demonized either of the parties? And if your dad were to pass away unexpectedly, would you be comfortable with where your relationship is now?

42:09How does Oscar, you feel that you said what you needed to say to your mother? Do you feel you've said, I'm just wondering personally, because I think about that, like, oh, there are a lot of these topics and questions that I feel like I should ask my parents at some point, but I'm not really sure when. And I'm not sure if I'll ever satisfy that. I feel like I'm always going to have more questions. Do you feel that you said everything you wanted? Yeah, for the most part, especially because a lot of communication is nonverbal and moving in with my mom when she was very sick was essentially telling her every day, I love you.

43:02But nothing went unsaid. My dad was around so long. My dad recently passed. He was 95. And I got a lot off my chest kind of 20, 30 years ago with him. And he was very apologetic. And just sort of took it and was never, I mean, the thing about my father was he never asked anything of me. He wasn't a great dad, but in terms of ROI, he was all positive because he never asked anything of his adult children. And my mom, you know, I don't know if one parent, do you have one parent that you feel, I won't ask you which one because they're both alive, but do you have one parent that you feel has invested much more in you than the other?

43:44The real AMA begins.

43:50I do, but I go back and forth on it. I mean, I've had years where I felt the other way. Well, that means, quite frankly, you either have really bad or really good parents. Because if they're in the running, if they're both neck and neck, for me, it was pretty obvious who had invested more. But the fact that you've even gone back and forth means that you probably have pretty good. Yeah. But what I would say is, when you get to this age, you communicate non-verbally. It's about your actions. and I was good to my dad. I hung out with him. I was a good, you know, I was a good son, better than most.

44:22But my mom, you know, when she got sick, took a leave of absence, moved in with her and, you know, put my life on hold to take care of her. And that, you know, that was, that was the, you know, that was the best communication. But again, I'll going back to what we're talking about, your parents aren't going to be around forever. And you're just, what I would tell you is after your parents are gone, you're not going to regret having erred a little bit to the upside in terms of generosity and being emotional with them. You're not going to look back and think, I really fucked up telling my dad I admired him and that I love my mom a great deal.

44:58You're just not going to regret that. Different kind of relationship question for Ed. How should someone early in their career balance ambition and self-investment with the demands of a relationship? I'm trying to build good investing habits, grow my income, and still be a present partner. but it often feels impossible to do all three as a young man in L.A. Just before you answer, I've said this to Ed before privately, but I think him getting a girlfriend was genuinely one of the best things that ever happened to this show. He had this kind of, like, surly, disgruntled vibe before he got with her.

45:38And once he got with her, he was happy, well-rested, focused. I honestly think getting a girlfriend levels you up in a way. And I think it's the same for me. 100%. Yeah, I can't relate to what this guy's talking about, like demands of a relationship. I think actually the right relationship should be leveling you up and only helping your focus in your career. But Ed, what do you think? I think everything you just said. I 100 % agree with you. Yeah, I can't tell from the question whether he is in a relationship right now or thinking about one. But yeah, my view on this is relationships should make you actually more focused and more ambitious and more interested in investing for the long term.

46:34You're thinking in a long—if it's the right relationship. If you're thinking for the long term, it means that you're going to be more focused on how do I make sure that I make money and build up my career such that we can build a life together. How can I be structured about my work requirements such that I can show up for dinner and do something nice or take her out to a restaurant or get her a nice gift? Like, those are all kinds of things that I think actually it's a virtuous cycle where you get more focused. You end up working harder, I have found, when you're in a relationship. So I guess if the question is like, oh, I need to invest in myself now.

47:16Like, I don't think I should get a relationship yet. I don't think that's the right way to think about it. If you're in a relationship, you're going to spend a lot less time going out, getting drunk, trying to meet people and trying to get into a relationship. You're going to think a lot more responsibly about what you're doing for your career. So I think that is the question. And if so, I would be like, my answer is what you said. The relationship actually won't be a demand on your energy and your time and your focus. It'll actually multiply it. Yeah, the most rewarding thing is when I think about kids or economic security, it's having built that with someone else.

47:55It's really rewarding. It does also, I think, having a partnership makes you a better person because you know someone is watching, so to speak. You know you want to impress them. You want to start investing in their life and investing together. So I do think, especially men, I really do think men need the guardrails of a relationship. And I think especially when you're young, I don't want to say relationship, good relationships are work. Every relationship is work. And you need to bring a certain willingness to forgive, invest, think about them, notice their lives when things are important to you, important to them, even if they're not important to you to invest in those things.

48:35But also as a young person, quite frankly, if a relationship is a lot of work, that's probably a sign it's not a great relationship. Right. Agreed. When I was young and in love and no stress to kids and, you know, doing cool shit and hanging out with friends and discovering new things, God, any relationship that was work was called an ex-relationship. I'm like, okay. I mean, so a relationship that's a lot of work is a sign, especially when you're young, of maybe not a great relationship. The relationships I had when I was young, quite frankly, just weren't a lot of work. They were almost all upside.

49:09At least that's how I found them. Or net upside. It's like if it's taking more from you than it's giving you, then that's bad. But it's always going to take, you're going to have to invest something. It's going to take some level of work and commitment. But net net, it should be a surplus. Stay with us.

49:53The new T-Rock is the new T-Rock. Megan Rapinoe here. This week on A Touch More, Chris Mosier joins us to discuss his groundbreaking career as an athlete and as a trans athlete advocate. Chris was the first openly trans athlete to represent the United States in international competition after making the men's sprint duathlon team. We're also closing 2025 by giving out some year-end Meggies, taking a look at women's college basketball, and yes, checking in with how the NWSL is trying to keep Trinity Rodman in the league. Check out the latest episode of A Touch More wherever you get your podcasts and on YouTube.

50:37If you were a person online around the turn of the century, there's a good chance that AIM, AOL Instant Messenger, was crucially important to your social life. For a whole generation of us, it's how we learned to LOL and LMAO and JK and BRB. It's how we learned to be people online. And this week on Version History, a new chat show about old technology, we're talking about the whole story of AIM, from its skunkworks era inside of AOL to its very sad death at the hands of text messages. All that on Version History, wherever you get podcasts.

51:16We're back with Profit Markets. As we reach year end and begin thinking of what's in store for the future, do you think we're approaching the right time to rebrand to Prof. Elson Media?

51:34Oh, Prof. E. Media? It doesn't have the right ring to it. No, it'd be Ed Elson, it'd be E squared media. E squared. Well, you know, guys, I don't even think about these things. I don't really have a very big ego. I'm not very self-absorbed. I don't like to think about me. Yeah, no, it's going to be Prop G Media for a while. Yeah. I don't know, Ed, what do you think? Do you want something brand? I did notice. Nobody asked me. This is a true story. when we went to five days a week, all of a sudden it went from Prop G Markets to Prop G Markets with Scott Galloway and Ed Elson. Yes. No one asked me.

52:22It just, all of a sudden the branding changed. Just a slight tweak. Just a slight tweak. Yeah. Or does it say Ed Elson and Scott Galloway? I can't remember. It does not say that. You're first, Scott. You're first. What I will say though, I'm trying to couch this in a lesson and a learning, is I have always given people, I've been pretty promiscuous with titles. So for example, there's probably, I probably have 10 co-founders. That is people who on LinkedIn say they're a co-founder of Red Envelope or a co-founder of Profit. No, I hired you. You're not a co-founder. And here's the thing, I don't call them and say, I mean, maybe they've even asked me.

53:03I'm like, yeah, fine. This is what a founder is. I'm loving me as the parallel in this situation, but please continue. This is what a founder is. We may call you a co-host. A founder is someone who signs the front of checks, not the back of checks. And it just strikes me that once success has many fathers and failure is an orphan, and it just strikes me how many founders there are of my companies out there who, according to LinkedIn, co-founded my companies. And I'm like, okay, you never invested a fucking red sign of your money. And I hired the guy that hired you five years later, but you're a co-founder.

53:37Fine. And I sound like a bitter old man. Titles are pretty easy to give to people and they're important to people. So fine. I'm always pretty promiscuous with title. You want to call yourself a co-founder? Have at it. Congratulations, co-founder. Is that to me? I didn't ask this question. No, that's not you, Ed. That's not you. You have earned the right to be co-host. You have earned the right to be co-host. I'm happy. I'm generally happy for you and all of your success. Let's get your official answer on this at the end of 2025. Are you going to run for public office? Good question. You know, occasionally when I'm feeling, occasionally I get very excited about public policy ideas and I think about it for a minute because I think, well, I'll help shape the conversation.

54:29I'm going to be dead soon. It's a chance to serve. And then I realize I don't have those skills. I wouldn't enjoy it. And I think the best thing, and I've said this over and over, and I mean this sincerely, that we can do at Prop G Media is bring attention to great Democrats. I just gave money to Desmond Crockett and James Tallarico, who I think are both amazing. I love – I'm a huge fan of governors Shapiro, Moore, Newsom, Senators Klobuchar, Bennett, Governor Whitmer. I just think we have just some outstanding people who have devoted their whole life to public service. Can I interrupt and ask you a different question?

55:05Sure. Yeah, you're sick of hearing this answer. Well, I... Yeah, go ahead, Ed. Do you not think that if you ran, you might actually win? Because that's why people are interested in you running. It's like, one, you have a lot of fans, but I think a lot of people, like, if he runs, he could actually win. like he has more power uh among in terms of a platform and a voice more a greater following everyone in america trusts him more he's got he's more aligned with the direction that the democratic party should be moving in like i get that it's sort of like you know i don't have the skills but it's sort of like you actually do and you could actually win and given the first do you agree with that.

55:56And two, assuming you do agree with that, how is that not tempting? I think you're being generous to be blunt. Other people would not think that. I just want to make sure you know, many, many people out there do not think I'm being generous, but please. Well, I told you, this is a true story. Several months ago, a group of people called me and said, if I put in 10 million, they'll put in 10 million. And I said, I'm not sure I could win. And they said, it's not about winning. We want you to help shape the conversation around income inequality and the middle class and restoring prosperity for young people.

56:33Anyways, but okay, so assume you do win, right? Would you want to spend, do you think you're the best person to make these types of decisions? Do you have empathy, leadership skills, an understanding of public policy, how to get things done in Washington, an incredible feel for geopolitics, empathy for how people are struggling and the skills to affect change. I have some of those, but there are a lot of people that have more of them. And I think that the fact that there's any sort of chatter around the possibility of me running for office and being successful is just a vastly incorrect underestimate of how talented some of the people are who are in Washington who already have a lot of experience and know how to do these things.

57:22So I just don't, I feel like I'm fairly self-aware and I'm not a humble person, but I literally, I consider myself a patriot. I'm moving back to the US. I want to be part of the resistance. I feel like the Trump administration is a stain on the American experience. I want to play a real significant role in changing that. And then you think, well, all right, if you're a real patriot, you're going to figure out what weapon you are best to command and how you can best be a warrior in the fight. And hands down, everything points to the same thing. I'm going to bring a ton of attention and I'm going to use my time, treasure, and talent to get an amazing group of young Democrats elected.

57:58That is absolutely the best use of my time and skills. And any sort of ego and narcissism that takes from that is nothing but ego and narcissism. Sit down with Senators Murphy. Sit down with Senator Bennett. Sit, listen to, you know, Governor Moore. You know, you just, you meet these people. Who's that? Wes Moore. He's fantastic. I know, I know. These people are amazing. I'm standing in for my generation. Who are these guys? I don't know them. Scott Galloway's cool. He's on the internet. Yeah. He's got the mojo. Who are these boring dudes, These thoughtful dudes coming up with this. That's who should be deciding who goes where the Sixth Fleet goes in the Mediterranean to suppress.

58:39Yeah. No, these individuals, I would love to see a great Democrat. And also, I would love to see Admiral Stavridis as vice president. Anyways, but I love thinking about it because I'm a narcissist and it's very flattering. But no, if you're a patriot, you think about where you can best serve. And that's absolutely where we're going to serve. We're going to help Democrats and moderate Republicans get elected in 26, and then we're going to play a small but important role in recapturing the White House in 28 and ending this weird, dark moment in history known as the Trump administration. My promise to the audience—I know you love when I give these promises to the audience, Scott.

59:21My promise to the audience, I'm going to convince Scott to run. It's going to happen. The Prof G legacy must continue. And we'll stack the cabinet with Prop G Media people. Hey, weirder things have happened. Mia will be Secretary of State. Oh, Claire, you'd be much more qualified as Secretary of War than, you know. A chicken in every pot of C-A-L-E-S in every cupboard. Galloway Elson, 2028. There we go. Let's roll. There we go. Let's roll. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silveria is our research lead. Our research associates are Isabella Kinsel, Dan Chalon, and Kristen O'Donoghue.

1:00:03Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media all year long. We really appreciate it, and we will see you in 2026.

1:00:28You held me in kind reunion As the world turns And the dark flies In love