The 35% Recession Warning Markets Are Ignoring — ft. Ed Yardeni

28:18It's not just AI, it's electric vehicles, it's robotics, space companies, and so on.

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32:22We're back with Profit Markets. When you talk about some of the resiliencies that we've seen and all of the large events that happened over the past few years that turned out to not be that big of a deal, at least from a market's perspective, there is this clashing of viewpoints that I find very interesting in markets right now. And there are the people who kind of believe that nothing ever really happens. Things change. We might have wars. We might have big catastrophic events, but ultimately things don't really change. And then there are the people life goes on. And then they'll be able to say, no, there are things that really do change things.

32:58Things do happen. And I'm always stuck on this question because, you know, part of me believes, yes, of course things happen. Of course things change. But then I also look through recent history and I think, well, maybe it doesn't really. And I guess the question becomes, if things do change in a dramatic way, what would it be if not war, if not AI? What are the kinds of things that you're looking at that could fundamentally change America? Most recessions were caused by credit crunches. The Fed would raise interest rates in an attempt to slow down inflation. And along the way, some borrowers who thought that interest rates would stay low suddenly are refinancing at higher rates or they can't get credit.

33:48Something blows up in the financial markets, in one corner of the financial market, before you know it, it becomes an economy wide credit crunch. And when you can't get credit, you clearly get a recession. We've also had some of these recessions that were caused by tightening a monetary policy, but coinciding with that was a increased significant spike in oil prices. We had that in 2008. Everybody thinks that the only thing that happened was the housing market melted down, but we also had a significant spike in oil prices at the time. You know, these commodity price spikes, you know, they're called spikes for a reason.

34:28You know, we saw just, what, a week ago the price of oil, I think it was on a Sunday night trading overseas spiked up to$120 a barrel. And then by Monday, it already had come back down to$100 a barrel, which sounds like a high number, but we've been there before without the economy really taking a dive on that. But I think right now I would say that geopolitics is sort of one of the more obvious areas of concern. I hope the markets are right, And I'm coming around to the idea that, you know, it's kind of like the awful situation in Ukraine with the Russian invasion. I mean, you go outside of Ukraine into Europe and they're sitting there in cafes and, you know, talking about politics, having their croissants and, you know, like nothing terrible is happening.

35:29A similar situation may be occurring in the Middle East. We've had lots of wars and attacks and bombings in the Middle East, and yet our economy certainly has continued to grow. I mean, it's easy to come up with a World War III scenario, but I'm not going to do that unless you really ask me to, because I tend to be an optimist. But, you know, the sketch of that would be China has us right where they want us, kind of preoccupied in the Middle East. I guess I am telling you the scenario. I was going to follow up anyway. I figured you might, so I jumped the gun. So, yeah, China must be very pleased to have us, the U.S., stuck in the Middle East, where only a couple of years ago we were saying, you know, everything's hunky-dory in the Middle East.

36:23We're not going to bother there anymore. We're going to focus on Asia, particularly China, particularly Taiwan. And there have been some changes recently in China where President Xi purged four out of five generals. And nobody knows why. They don't know if it's because the generals wanted to attack Taiwan and he didn't, or whether he wanted to attack Taiwan and they told him the generals said they're not ready to do it. Whatever it was, it's a strange development. But, you know, if I was a Chinese communist leader that had promised to bring Taiwan back, I mean, this is a pretty opportune kind of environment.

37:05And that would be an absolute disaster for the global economy because Taiwan basically has a monopoly on chips. Then again, the U.S. military forces are right there in the Middle East. and all we got to do is take over Karg Island and that's a huge source of oil for China. So, you know, you can war game this stuff quite a bit. And then, you know, Russia might say, well, you know, the United States is preoccupied in the Middle East. Let's go after Estonia, Latvia and so on. So I would say geopolitics is really at the top of a list of my concerns. And that's very hard to incorporate into an investment strategy.

37:49and the markets have learned over the years that geopolitical crises create buying opportunities. I think they've learned it to such an extent that you really don't get the buying opportunity. Look at the current situation. You know, I thought, well, this one will be a buying opportunity. Buying opportunity to me means that you can buy the stock market on a correction, 10 to 15%. And we barely got to a 5 % sell-off so far. And nobody seems to be in a particular panic to sell stocks that suddenly creates a buying opportunity for the rest of us who've learned that, you know, when things look bad, that's exactly when you're supposed to be buying.

38:28Two of our big themes for 2026, and this is before the war in Iran, was one that we would start to, for the first time in 17 or 18 years, see outflows from the U.S. markets to emerging markets. That we'd been on this incredible 17-year run, and the rivers or the capital flows were about to reverse flow, and that you needed to be more diversified into emerging markets. Well, since 2010 through last year, I was recommending stay home rather than go global. That didn't mean don't invest at all overseas, but overweight the U.S. and underweight everybody else. And that worked out remarkably well. I was kind of surprised how well it worked out.

39:14And I overstayed my welcome because 2025 was a great year to go global. Emerging markets did extremely well. Europe, Japan, I mean, just across the board, the U.S. was a total underperformer. But that's after several years of outperforming. A little ironic because I think it was in 2024, The Economist had three cover stories on why America is exceptional. And that was kind of the front cover curse because in 2025, we had the tariffs and a lot of confusion about where American foreign policy was, and suddenly investors were investing more overseas. Now, it's kind of weird, though, because when you look at the actual data that the Treasury collects on net foreign purchases of assets, securities in the U.S., they were actually showing that last year, foreigners bought a record$700 billion of U.S.

40:17stock. Maybe it was all NVIDIA for all I know, but the data belied the notion that people sold the U.S. in order to get into other markets. Maybe just global wealth grows and they kind of rebalance more towards emerging market, Europe, and so on. I mean, from a fundamental perspective, it's hard for me to get real excited about Europe, but the European banks were outperformers. The defense stocks were outperformers. And, you know, a lot of that had to do with the specific fundamental changes that were going on in the banking industry and, of course, the geopolitical changes going on in defense.

40:56Last December, a little late, I said, OK, maybe it's time to rebalance. And the argument was pretty simple. On the domestic front, technology and communication services got to be something like 45 percent of the market cap of the S &P 500. And I felt uncomfortable telling people to overweight something that was already 45 % of the entire U.S. market. And the same thing happened to me with regards to thinking about the U.S. relative to the rest of the world. It got to be 65 % of the market cap of the MSCI. And America may be exceptional, but, you know, how can I recommend overweighting something that's basically worked the way I expected it to work?

41:36So at some point, you rebalance. And now with regards to the international situation, the war upended my idea of going global because suddenly the U.S. looked like the place you wanted to park your money. And so the U.S. market is down, but it still outperformed the rest of the world. I think as this war settles down, it may just be kind of a persistent problem in the Middle East as it's been forever. I don't know why it should suddenly change. But if it just kind of becomes less headline news, then I think we could see the go global working again, particularly with emerging markets. The story for emerging markets is a lot of them have emerged.

42:25A lot of them have large middle classes. They have large populations. And I can't go country by country kind of figuring it all out. So I either would use the EEM, which is the Emerging Markets MSCI ETF, or I prefer the fund that excludes China. And that, you know, China is a big part of the MSCI index. But China's been kind of a play on AI, and I'd rather play in our sandbox than in their sandbox. A lot of people might have heard the term bond vigilante. This was a very important term last year, especially when tariffs were placed. They went into effect, and then the bond vigilantes, the people who sold bonds, which drove up yields, which sort of punished the government.

43:19Some people might not know you came up with that term. That is your term, bond vigilante. It seems to be less of a topic right now. People aren't really talking about it. But I just want to get your reactions. What are happening in the bond markets right now? Is there anything that is striking to you? And why aren't the bond vigilantes supposedly as active as they were last year? Well, it's been eerie, actually, in the U.S. bond market. It's been kind of stuck in a range between four, four and a quarter, maybe four and a half for the past four years. Been a couple of times when it was above that, a couple of times when it was below that.

43:59But all in all, the bond market has been remarkably quiet. I came up with the idea a while ago that bonds, bond yields are normalized. This is where they should be. The aberration was when they were down to 0.5 % for the 10-year when the Fed was providing quantitative easing, buying bonds. That was the aberration. That was the abnormality. And to me, an economy that can grow with bonds of 4 % to 4.5%, that's a good economy. That's an economy that's providing a good rate of return to bond investors. And that's a bond market that's probably doing a pretty good job of allocating where capital goes.

44:46You know, when you have a bond yield of 0.5 percent, it distorts the allocation of capital quite measurably. And so, yeah, I think that the U.S. bond market is kind of fine where it is. I've been doing this for over 45 years. And, yeah, back in 83, I came up with the idea of bond vigilantes. I went back in my bookshelf and I read what I wrote back then and I said, you know, if the sheriffs in town, if the monetary and fiscal authorities don't do their job and keep inflation down, the bond vigilantes will do it. They'll push bond yields up to levels that slow the economy down, slow inflation down and risk causing a recession.

45:34and back then I said what the Bon Vigilantes are concerned about now is$250 billion deficits and now we're talking about$1.5 to$2 trillion and we're at 4, 4.5 percent, no big deal. But you know, over the past year, two years, when people ask me what happened to the Bon Vigilantes, I said, you know, have you looked what's going on in Japan? During the tourist season, apparently Japan is overwhelmed with tourists. Well, now they're also overwhelmed by bond vigilantes, and I don't think they're there for the blossoming of the cherry trees. They're there because Japan has been a poster child for other developed countries.

46:16You know, they were early on in having a speculative bubble burst and having to lower interest rates to zero. And they were early on in accumulating a huge amount of debt relative to their GDP. and over the past year or so, the bond market over there, the bond yields have gone up dramatically, but it really hasn't had any significant impact on the Japanese economy. We'll be right back, and for even more markets content, sign up for our newsletter at profgmarkets.com.

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50:37We're back with Prof G Markets. There's been a lot of catastrophizing warnings about the state of the labor market due to pressures from AI. Your thoughts on whether this destruction in the labor force or jobs is overblown or underblown? Door number one, it's overblown. So nobody's going to get fired at the Ardeni Researcher. We're just a small dinky little research firm. because suddenly Claude's allowing us to do stuff we just wouldn't have done before. From my personal experience, I think AI, instead of requiring coders, requires prompters. You have to really learn how to talk to it, ask the right questions, be very specific about what you want, and then you've got to check it because it's still not perfect.

51:31But I think what's happened over the past year or two in the labor market is AI became such a big deal that every company basically decided to freeze their payrolls. So we're not going to hire anybody. We're not going to fire anybody. We're going to do a lot of research and we're going to do a lot of trials to see if AI can make the people we have here even more productive. And I think what a lot of companies are concluding is that in some areas, AI is amazing and it can augment the productivity of the people you have. There's no reason to get rid of them. Just, you know, these people, you know, can be taught if they can't naturally get a feel for how to use AI.

52:17And then in other areas, AI is irrelevant. But you know what? We finally looked at this division that nobody's really looked in for, you know, for 20 years. And maybe let's just sell it. You know, we're not making any money in this division. So I think there's a lot of focus on productivity as a result of AI. And I think like all technological—I'm not a Luddite. I think like all technological revolutions, there's a transition phase. People are going to kind of have to reinvent themselves. And I think that's what they're doing and will continue to do. And I think the labor market will continue to do well.

52:58If I'm wrong, there's some people talking about universal income. I guess the analogy would be something like the Romans. The Romans conquered so many people and made slaves out of them that they didn't have any work to do. Everybody else, everybody they conquered did all the work. And I guess, you know, we could be poets and have parties and all that the way the Romans did. But I don't think it's going to go that way. I think we're all going to have jobs. Earlier in the program, we were talking about things that really shake the markets, things that actually have a dramatic impact. And you pointed out correctly that what they all have in common is there is a credit crunch.

53:41There is some sort of form of credit crisis that stems from too much debt that we cannot handle. So, this makes me believe that the thing that's going to bring everything down is ultimately just the U.S. national debt. The fact that we're up to nearly$40 trillion in debt. We are adding to it with the big, beautiful bill. As I said,$4 trillion added to the deficit over the next decade in more deficit spending. And when you talk to people about Japan, people go, well, I guess Japan's okay. And no one really has an answer as to why it's okay, but they say, okay, it's okay. And so maybe that means America is going to be OK.

54:20I'm a little skeptical of this. And I'd just like to end with your thoughts on what is the deal with the U.S.'s debt situation? And is it going to come back to bite us? I have to tell you a little story here. You know, a fair amount of the people who sign up to our research service are institutional investors, private wealth managers. They manage money for wealthy individuals. And they particularly like my work because I tend to be balanced. And when things look terrible, you know, you read some of my perma bear competitors and you want to, you know, you start reading what they're writing. And you want to pull out a gun and blow out your brains, you know, when you wake up in the morning.

55:07You can actually read mine without going that far, even during bad times. So a lot of them over the past couple of years have been telling me, you know, I really appreciate your work because it's been balanced because our accounts are very, very nervous. The more the stock market goes up, the more nervous they get. I said, what are they nervous about? Well, first of all, they're wealthy individuals. They're conservative. They want to conserve. They want to keep what they got. But on the other hand, they're very happy to see their wealth go up in the stock market. But as it goes up, they say, you know, maybe we should get out of the market.

55:44So, well, what are you so worried about, they ask. And these wealthy individuals will say, well, I'm very concerned about the deficit. I'm very concerned about the debt. It's just there's no way we can keep doing this. So then the manager tells me, so what do they want you to – I ask them, what do they want you to invest in? I said, well, they just want to be safe in 10-year treasuries. So I said, here they're worrying about the debt blowing up, and they just want to be in 10-year treasuries. Because, hey, what the hell? I can always sit on them for 10 years. Even if we get a debt crisis and everything blows up, eventually rates will still come back down.

56:29One of the ways to understand why things haven't blown up is because the world is getting richer and richer. I mean, for all the geopolitical stresses and strains and crazy stuff going on, the world on balance continues to grow. People are aspirational. If they're prosperous, they want to prosper more. If they're not prosperous, they want to prosper. There's still a fairly heavy dose of capitalism on a global basis. There's competition, and there's companies that are under pressure to provide the best goods and services they can for customers at reasonable prices. And that's created a tremendous amount of wealth, hundreds of trillions of dollars.

57:16And wealth likes to diversify. They don't want to be all in one sector. And so, for example, I have a chart that I've been showing these days showing the S &P 500 versus the price of gold on the same scale. And what's interesting is they are kind of inversely related, which means that gold is really a pretty good diversifying asset for a stock portfolio. Because when the stock portfolio goes up, you take a little bit on the chin for that insurance policy. But when stocks are going down, gold's doing well. That's been true since gold's been set free by Nixon back in the early 1970s. But when you look at the trend, they're almost the same identical trend.

57:57So here in my roaring 2020 scenario, I have the market, the S &P 500, getting to 10 ,000 by the end of the decade, by the end of 2029. And based on that chart, I'm extrapolating the trends. Gold could get to$10 ,000 per ounce as well. Why? Because of diversification. And so that's kind of the way I'm looking at it is the world is getting wealthier and wealthier. And that's a good thing. and we want more and more people to be prosperous. We want more and more neighborhoods to be good neighborhoods, aspirational neighborhoods. Certainly want a lot fewer wars, but I guess we can't fight human nature and human history.

58:42But I guess I would say that the one thing that I've often told investors who are interested in my point of view and what I've learned is, One of the things I've learned over the years is amazing how well the U.S. economy and the global economy, but the U.S. economy and the U.S. stock market and foreign stock markets have done, despite the politicians, despite the dictators and the military and the wars, it's really quite extraordinary. And that's because people are aspirational. So here in the United States, you know, we're constantly reading the news about the Fed and about the Treasury and the White House.

59:21And I say, you know, it's amazing how we keep doing well despite these clowns. And we just kind of take them into consideration when we're going about our business all day and thinking about how can we prosper despite what's going on politically. Ed Yardeni is the president of Yardeni Research, a provider of global investment strategies and asset allocation analysis. He previously served as chief investment strategist of Oak Associates, Prudential Equity Group, and Deutsche Bank's U.S. Equities Division in New York City. He taught at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and was an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

59:58He also held positions at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and the U.S. Treasury Department in Washington, D.C. Ed, thank you very much for your time. If I may just say, I am an entrepreneurial capitalist. So if anybody wants to try the research, just go to Yardeni.com. Yardeni.com. You got it. Thank you, sir. Thank you. Thank you, Ed.

1:00:29Ed, what did you think? Well, Ed Yardeni is a legend in the world of economics and markets. I thought it was great. And I thought it was interesting his story about how investors feel about our fiscal situation, our deficit spending, our increasing debt, and the fact that you have all these investors who say, I don't know what to do. I think I want to get out of the stock market. Okay, well, what do you want to do instead? Oh, I want to buy treasuries. I want to buy more U.S. debt. which is a great example of kind of the paradox that a lot of investors are facing right now, which is they know that they're getting too risky because of the amount that we've seen and the amount of run-up that we've seen in the stock market.

1:01:13We know that we keep on spending more money than we should really be spending. But then the question becomes like, well, what is your safe haven? What is your insurance policy? What is your protection? And some people would say it's fixed income, it's treasury. Some people would say it's private debt. Some people would say it's gold or Bitcoin. And in all of these assets, you can also make the case that actually these are quite risky assets as well. And so I think it's leaving investors in this very tricky place where it's like no one can agree on what the safe haven even is anymore because there seems to be risk everywhere.

1:01:49But if someone could come up with the asset that is the true safe haven, the Bitcoiners would say, it's Bitcoin, we already did it. I don't know if everyone really buys it. I don't think we really believe you based on what we've seen with Bitcoin price movements. But if someone could do that, that guy would get very, very rich. I almost think of it. We need a new term. It's not safe haven. It's least fucked up or least dangerous haven. You know, it's the there's either there's markets that have, you know, greater debt than us or there's markets that have less debt than us, but aren't growing. And so we're the, you know, the fastest turtle, if you will.

1:02:27So, yeah, it's I'm not sure safe haven is the right term. I really the term he used that I thought was really appropriate was balanced. He strikes me as very balanced, and it's always good to hear from someone who's not easily— I get the sense that Ed's seen a few cycles and doesn't scare that easily. I also thought it was interesting. In contrast, I think his firm is about the same size as Profty Media technically. We're research firms, but it's research firms. And he said that they weren't planning to lay off any people because of AI, whereas I'm planning to lay off most of the staff here. Why does that make me happy?

1:03:01I've been thinking about that for the last 20 minutes. no but he did strike me as is very balanced and you know quite frankly just doesn't scare that easily i think he's probably a i think he's one probably one of the few investment newsletters where you read it your blood pressure comes down whereas everyone else is you know the world is falling and credit spreads are going to blow out etc anyways i very much enjoyed enjoyed the interview does your blood pressure go down when you listen to our content so speaking of blood pressure. I was diagnosed for the first time. I've told you this. Let's bring this back to me, Ed.

1:03:38Every year I get a physical, and every year it's like, you're superhuman, your good cholesterol is high, your bad cholesterol. I love getting my physical. Except this time they told me I've shrunk an inch, and I have high blood pressure. And so I work my ass off on getting my blood pressure down. I'm drinking less, I'm eating no processed meats, trying to do more cardio. And I got my blood pressure below 130, or down to like 127. And all of a sudden, the American Heart Association has now lowered what defines or what fits the qualification of blood pressure down 10 points. They moved the goalposts on me, Ed.

1:04:11Anyways. Is that RFK's fault? Whatever it is, it's RFK's fault. No, I don't have measles. That's one thing that I have going for me. That's true. But anyways, that's my high blood pressure story, Ed. Well, I don't have much to add on that. You were so bored by that. At your age, you don't need to worry about any of this. You don't even know. Anyways, don't, don't. Yeah, you got time still, Ed. You got time. You got time. Eating steak, eggs, and raw milk and I'll be good. Yeah, but I do believe AI is going to replace you. Okay. I have other things to worry about.

1:04:47This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our video editor is Jorge Carti. Our research team is Dan Chalon, Isabella Kinsel, Kristen O'Donoghue, and Mia Silverio. Jake McPherson is our social producer. Drew Burrows is our technical director, and Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from Prof G Media. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.

1:05:15Lifetimes

1:05:20You have me In kind reunion As the world turns

1:05:38And the dark flies in love

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