Warning Signs From the Labor Market — ft. Kathryn Anne Edwards

25:54I think that they're going to try to shield their customers and they'll have a lag. So you exactly agree with you there. But for the rest, I mean, we've never been in a position to be a part of the integrated global economy and actively attacking it. So how the job market internalizes that and whether it becomes a leader or a lagger of those effects, I mean, that really comes down to businesses' bottom line and how they treat their payroll. For the past two years, they have treated their payroll as essentially a precious investment. It was hard to hire a couple of years ago. People spent a lot of time looking for workers.

26:34They don't want to lose people and then be in the same spot to be in a tough hiring position again. So it comes down to whether or not employers will be quick to fire or not. We've seen a change in that behavior. Typically, the U.S. is like, is that a bad economy? Go, go, go. And we lay off so much faster than other countries. We haven't seen that over the past few years. It's hard to say if that represents a true shift in behavior from U.S. firms, given the tight labor market that they experienced coming out of the pandemic, or if it's just waiting for more information before they move. So we don't have an answer.

27:09My guess is that this kind of not necessarily goodwill, but the reluctance to lay off workers will come to a screeching and coordinated halt. meaning that once you see firms start to lay off, other firms will see that as cover and act similarly. And especially if there's pressure to say like, well, they're doing 5 % layoffs to make sure we make it through this. Why aren't you? I think, and the concern there is that, I mean, layoffs are, that's just the match thrown on the kerosene. It doesn't take that much of layoffs to push up the unemployment rate really quickly. And most people think a recession is when it's hard to find a job.

27:52But really, a recession is when lots of people get laid off. But really, a recession is when it's hard to find a job because there are so many people in unemployment. And so the start of the recession is dumping a bunch of people into unemployment. That just takes three months of elevated layoffs. Some data that I found really interesting from the jobs report. One, it's super interesting what you say about what's happening in healthcare, where that's basically what's leading the report. And what it really tells us is that America is just very old and sick, which is not great. But the other thing that I found really interesting is that employment for young people with college degrees is at its lowest level in years.

28:31And this is some other data from LinkedIn, which is that entry-level hiring is down 23 % compared to March 2020. If you're a recent grad and you're part of Gen Z, that's my generation, your unemployment rate right now is 1 % higher than the rest of the working population. So what is going on with the job market for young people and for entry-level workers? Why is it so tough for a young person with a college degree? That's who's getting hurt right now. Why is it so hard for them right now? The unemployment rate of young people is always higher than the unemployment rate of older people. And that the less experience you have, the harder it can be to be hired.

29:11And so So this is a natural, not natural, because that sounds like I expect you to not have a job. This is a typical relationship between the unemployment rates. Young people, even if they have a college degree, have higher unemployment rates. But it's the highest in years. It's the highest in years. So the positive spin on this that I would be remiss if I didn't bring up is that the unemployment rate being higher amongst young people does have good interpretations. Like in your first five years out of college, you should go find a bunch of different jobs. You should figure out what you like. You should constantly be searching.

29:43If something doesn't fit, like we consider it to be a really beneficial, intense period of learning about the labor market that's associated with a lot of job jumps as well as a lot of wage growth. And so if you are looking for a job more often, you will have a higher unemployment rate. And so there's an argument here of like, you know, it's not all bad. But of course, younger people with less experience will have the hardest time in a recession getting hired. And what we are seeing is really these two labor markets that I told you about, the labor market for people with a job and the labor market for people who want one.

30:19The labor market for people who want one looks much more like a recession. and you would not expect the unemployment rate to be so low overall. So all of that said, as preface, one of the most interesting studies in the Great Recession about unemployment and job search was that this group of economists looked at job postings and the educational requirements and experience requirements for them. And they looked at how that varied for the same job based on the unemployment rate. And it goes exactly how you would expect in a really unfortunate way for young people, which is that when the unemployment rate is high and a lot of people are looking for jobs, a job that two years ago required a college degree and no experience would require a master's with five.

31:06And you would see these jumps in what you needed in an entry-level job as the unemployment rate got up. I think what we're seeing now is a version of that without the unemployment rate going up, that there are a lot of people looking for jobs. The hiring rate is low. And so you're seeing just this bar being higher, even though the unemployment rate is still low. And so historically, it is a historically odd labor market for unemployment and hiring to be delinked than their typical patterns. I can say for Gen Zers like yourself, I am deeply empathetic. Having graduated from college in 2007 and looking for a job in 2008 and 2009, it's a really harrowing, awful experience to feel like the labor market is telling you through every application you send out the door that you don't hear anything back, that you are not good enough.

31:59Even the best students. I mean, these MBA students at Stanford and Harvard, no one can find a job right now. I've seen it in the data. And then I also have friends who go to these schools and they literally can't find a job. It's unbelievable to me. It's unbelievable. And I think that because the rest of the economy is not experiencing it, it's really easy to minimize other people's experience because it's not yours. And unemployment in particular is something that America has been, I think, verges on cruelly unempathetic. It's easier for me as a person with a job to say, if you can't find one, it's because of your own personal failing.

32:38You're not working hard enough. You're not searching hard enough. You weren't a hard worker to begin with, or maybe your degree was no good. Because if you were a hard worker who searched really well for a job, who put yourself out there, who has a good degree, and you can't find one, that means I'm at risk too. And there's this degree of self-preservation that people bring to the labor market that if they admit really good, hardworking people can be out of luck, it means they could too. And so it's easier instead to say people who aren't doing well simply aren't as good as me because the consequences of them being just as good are pretty scary.

33:16And so I would say to the Gen Zers who can't find a job, you would be right in being suspicious that there's a lack of empathy for your position and that it's a lot easier to just like blame you for being on TikTok than it is to understand that you are representing a fundamental weakness in the U.S. labor market right now. What is your kind of just your prediction or sober take on the impact on the economy of the GOP tax bill? Not a lot good there. That's my technical assessment. Oh, man, the tax bill. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, which is a nonpartisan think tank in D.C. that advocates for just better fiscal policy, less deficits.

34:00It's they did a study looking at the increase in the U.S. debt since 2001. And it's a particularly important year to understand this because in 2001, the Congressional Budget Office predicted that within the decade, the U.S. debt would be zero based on the trajectory it was on. Well, obviously, we didn't get there. And what they have found is that in the 23 years since then, 37 percent of the increase in the federal debt comes from tax cuts. that's a pretty large number for what i would struggle to point to as having a single clear accomplishment it's been over seven trillion dollars that have been spent over four massive tax legislations since 2001 2001 2003 2012 and 2017 what part of our economy can you say we wouldn't have without a tax cut other than the debt i don't know what you would be pointing to Tax cuts are diffuse policy.

34:57They're not very effective. They're more political policy than they are economic ones. So when I look at this bill, which is basically it's not doubling down or tripling down or quadrupling down. It is quintupling down on a policy that has already cost us a fortune. I think that this is a willful refusal to have a champion of the U.S. economy in Congress. I mean, what is$4 trillion going to get you that the first seven didn't? That number there, you said 31 % of our deficit is a result of tax cuts. Is that what you said? It's, I believe, 37. Okay, 37%. Do people in Congress know that, do you think?

35:38I mean, you're saying willful ignorance, as maybe you're saying that they do know that. But is that something that they understand when they decide to, as you say, quintuple down on cutting taxes? Do you think that they understand the relationship between tax cuts and deficits? Or do they just assume that it doesn't really have an effect and the tax cuts just mean we grow? I'm not sure. Because there's a lot of performance to Congress. And even in relatively low stakes settings, there would still be a lot of performance that goes into being a member of Congress and how much they support something because they need to make a political show of it versus an actual understanding.

36:18I've testified in front of Congress about debt and tax cuts on two occasions. And in front of the House Ways and Means Committee last spring, I was the lone Democratic witness on a hearing about whether or not they should renew the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, basically whether or not they should pursue this big, beautiful bill. And I pointed out to them over and over again that their own congressional research service had said rather declaratively, these cuts did not improve the economy. They did not increase wages. They can have a small effect the year they go into effect, or the year that they are enacted.

36:55But the long-term effect is that they increase debt and borrowing and raise interest rates, and they're quite expensive. And they don't have the economic bang for the buck. And what I got back was like, I might as well have been at Juilliard. Like, just like the performances of response of like, how dare you? Like, you know, the Democratic witness, you know, it was laughable to the extent that it was obvious that like, there was a plague. acting going on, but people have told them unequivocally in hearings that this does not increase the size of the economy. Their own research service has told them a tax cut will not boost the economy.

37:34It did not do the things you said it was going to do. So they have the information. I don't know if willful ignorance were not inside their head. And they have a job where they publicly and privately are two very different people. So it's hard for me to say where personally they land on this. I, as not just an economist and someone who has been called on to testify in front of Congress to bring some expertise, I think just as a voting citizen, it would, this is the single largest investment the U.S. has ever made. It's$7 trillion over 20 years to lowering our tax bill. It has certainly increased the debt.

38:19You know, how much runway do these tax cuts need? Stay with us.

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40:06We're back with Profit Markets. Just curious, we were big fans. I actually don't know if Ed's a big fan. I'm a big fan of raising minimum wage to 25 bucks an hour, that if it kept pace with productivity and inflation, it'd be about 23 bucks. All the data says that there is income inequality is really struggled. The young people aren't doing as well as their parents. And I see unions is and I'm curious what you think. I see unions is on the whole being pretty ineffective and a failed construct and that there should be one union, the federal government. and we should have federal legislation that increases minimum wage to 25 bucks an hour.

40:45And then there's a lot of fear, what I think is fear-mongering on the other side, saying that that would take the markets down, small businesses would go out of business, it would expedite a movement towards automation to replace human capital. In sum, minimum wage, 25, federally mandated minimum wage of 25 bucks an hour. What are your thoughts as an economist? It would have been kept pace with productivity, but would be historically high among minimum wages because the minimum wage, even in its heyday, wasn't as high as 23. So if you look at the minimum wage, if it had like its relationship to say median wages, its relationship to say average wages, that would suggest a minimum wage somewhere between$14 and$18 an hour right now.

41:27If you look at, say, the pre-2000 relationship of the minimum wage to the rest of the wage distribution. The productivity piece, it gives me pause because productivity can reflect, I mean, it reflects productivity, but it can move in certain ways. I think keeping wages, if inequality is your concern, then keeping wages pegged to relative other people's wages would be closer to your mark of keep it pegged so that it's a share of the median or a share of the average, and so that the middle is growing with the bottom, moving with the top. That's my preference. And I think around 18 is where that would tell you to land, probably 14 to 18, depending on which relative measure you wanted to use.

42:15Even that, it would be a doubling. But again, it's kind of like AI, as we talked about earlier, there's just a lot of really good boogeyman. And economic policy and analysis is just as much about identifying narratives as it is about actual analytic consequences. And the narrative around the minimum wage, I mean, y 'all, we have a$30 trillion economy, but if people made more than$7.25 an hour, it would all go away. It sounds ridiculous when you say it out loud, but yeah, the boogeyman from regulating the low-wage labor market is, I think people, I think that this big, beautiful bill is unintentionally educating Americans of just how low wages so many workers have.

43:05If you are working in the low-wage labor market, meaning you make about$17 an hour or less, and you have two kids, you are eligible for Medicaid in every expansion state. And so the idea that we need to have work requirements is almost offensive because we have a policy that allows for wages to be so low and then are almost affronted at the idea that people would work and be eligible for a public benefit when we haven't raised the minimum wage in 15 years. So I think that there is some kind of going back to the prior question, I think there is some education happening for a lot of Americans of just how many people are on Medicaid, just how many people would lose it, and just how many people are in the low-wage labor market.

43:47I want the minimum wage to be higher, but I think it has to be part of a new Fair Labor Standards Act that does much more than raise people's wages. We need better labor law enforcement. We need universal access to paid sick days. We need to have, brace for impact, a law that you have to give people a pay stub. So as Congress is enacting more work requirements, helpful to remember that no employer in the U.S. is legally compelled by the federal government to give people a pay stub. The worker has to prove to the federal government that they're working, but the employer doesn't have to prove to the worker what they did.

44:19That's remarkable to me. But I think it's part of a broader problem of how we have neglected the low-wage labor market, and that's more than just peg it to productivity. That's conceptualizing how we treat workers at the bottom, regulating their shifts, regulating their time off, making sure we have paid sick days, and kind of moving more comprehensively to low-wage work. It sounds like a lot of that would make living standards better, which is important. but a lot of the concerns that you highlight here is and that we're very concerned about on this podcast is just the rising inequality that we're seeing and what that does to a country when you have this level of such vast wealth inequality that is becoming more and more obvious to all of us every day and people are getting more and more upset and I feel like you know you can do what you can to increase living standards but it doesn't really solve that issue of this gigantic gap in America.

45:18What you really need is to get people's hands on wealth. They need to start owning assets. So I'm wondering, as an economist, what do you see as the long-term solutions? We'll take living standards as something that is important, but what are some other things that we should be doing? What should be in that big, beautiful bill? Oh, my God. The Catherine Edwards Big Beautiful Bill. It's actually beautiful. I host a podcast called Optimist Economy where we always try to make people feel better about the U.S. economy. It could not have started at a worse time than March 2025. But we, you know, one thing that I stress again and again is to remember just how little we've tried.

46:04What has the federal government done to try and reduce wealth inequality? They lowered taxes on the wealthiest people. So haven't really tried much. And I think these problems feel insurmountable until you remember that we have done, made almost no attempt to redress them. and that were we to make an attempt, were we to go follow the evidence to the best practices for our economy and for our society, we have a wealth of really good ideas and really good policy waiting for us. I've long been a champion that we should have a higher estate tax. Me too. Big, big time. Yeah, we should have the estate tax where it was, you know, 20 years ago.

46:43And believe it or not, we still had an economy and wealth up until the estate tax being at the rate it was. and that the estate tax revenue should be dedicated into a children's trust fund so that if you die with excess wealth, it just gets reinvested to children. And it doesn't necessarily go to your children. It goes to things like a child tax credit. It goes to things like universal child care, universal school meals, that we give all children a better start and that you are going to pass down dynastic wealth to your heirs, but we're just going to put our thumb on the scale for every man's kid and not just yours.

47:16It's plenty of money to do it. And all of those things, paid, you know, universal meals, universal child care, you know, paid family leave, all of them went tilt to helping the lower and bottom of our economy be more successful, especially their children. We don't invest in them. So, I mean, your point about wealth building, you know, Congress never sat down and designed the 401k. They changed part of the tax code. you know, entrepreneurial policy gurus at private companies realized it actually created a tax preferred savings account and IRS said, okay, and we got the 401k in the early 80s. It has always been about which companies voluntarily decide to give it to which employees that they feel are fit.

48:01So can we really have a problem, like a truly insurmountable problem of building asset and wealth in the U.S. if we've left it for 45 years to be gatekept by employers? No, we could have We could have a universal IRA. We could have a universal 401k. The latest is the 401kids, which everyone gets an IRA when they're born or a 401k when they're born. All of these would absolutely disrupt the type of wealth inequality that we're seeing in a truly American way by giving rich kids less of a head start. So I think I'm with you. This is the level of inequality that we're seeing in wages, in income, and in wealth, which accumulate as we step through what you earn hourly, annually, and how you convert that into assets.

48:46We've never seen inequality like this really just compared with right before the stock market crash of the Great Depression. But rest assured, we have a lot of things we can do. Amen. Final question. Catherine, what are you bullish on right now? And it could be a stock, it could be a sector, a cultural trend, anything. What are you bullish on right now and why? I am bullish on how unpopular this big, beautiful bill is amongst constituents. It is—this is night and day, y 'all. In 2000, George W. Bush won the election on the promise of tax cuts that he had followed through in 2001 and 2003. And you are now seeing such a shift in the U.S.

49:30electorate that they are mad that this tax bill is going through. To the point that Republicans have gag orders on not taking calls from their constituents, and they're not holding town halls or they're screening the questions because they're doing something deeply unpopular. And that has its own level of frustration to see your elected members of Congress responding to a constituency of one as opposed to a constituency of you. But I am very buoyed by the fact that people don't want this bill. They don't want 10 million people kicked off of Medicaid or food stamps. They don't want another tax cut that they know they don't benefit from.

50:09Congress is a toddler kind of stamping its feet and, you know, putting its hand over its ears and saying, well, I'm going to have my sixth bowl of ice cream anyway. I don't care if I throw up. But maybe this is a backhanded insult of like, I would never look for hope from the action of the 535 clowns that serve in Congress. I take action from the people who, you know, are around you upset about this bill. And I don't think we would have had the same reaction 25 years ago. I think we have evolved. And I take a lot of hope from that. Catherine Anne Edwards is a PhD economist and economic policy consultant.

50:45Her research focuses on the intersection of labor markets and public policy, including unemployment and unemployment insurance. She has testified three times in front of Congress about economic policy. She writes a weekly column on the economy for Bloomberg. and she is the co-host of the Optimist Economy podcast. Catherine, this was great. Thanks for joining us. Thank you, Catherine. That was great. Thank you all so much for having me.

51:15Scott, what did you make of that? I thought it was inspiring. I don't, she just strikes me as pretty even-handed and I liked what she said about productivity and kind of fact-checking me on the fact I learned that the minimum wage, the best way to peg it, if you wanted to do income inequality, would be to compare it to other wage levels. So I thought it was really good. I thought it was much better than the typical Joey Bag of Donuts blowhard on a book tour guests we get. What did you think, Ed? Who are you subtreasing? What did you think? I thought she nailed it. I love what she said about what those tax cuts do to our deficits.

51:55I feel like no one really understands that, that if you want to fix this deficit thing, you got to raise revenue in the form of tax revenue. And no, I don't get why people don't have this nailed down in their heads. I mean, yeah, we need to get the spending under control. Let's do that. But also let's figure out how to raise revenue with taxes. So why are we going after more tax cuts? And why are we gutting the IRS, which is going to make it even more difficult to get money to get tax dollars from the richest? Like, this is the big problem. And I love that she just puts the number on it. 37 % of the deficit.

52:30It's all attributable to tax cuts. I love the way she simplified it, that this strategy isn't working. We've been pursuing the strategy of tax cuts for several decades, and it isn't working. And I also like, and we've said, I've often said that the illusion of complexity inhibits progress, that the incumbents will say things like, oh, you know, globalization and agility of companies. And they always blame income inequality and a bunch of forces that supposedly we can't locate or are impossible to kill, right? And what she's saying is, you know, if we were serious about income inequality, the government really hasn't proposed anything serious to try and address income inequality.

53:09So I like the simplicity of what she said, the common sense of what she said. And I love that line. We've been pursuing a strategy of tax cuts for several decades, and it hasn't worked. One thing I would have liked some more concrete advice on or perspective on from her was this Gen Z unemployment problem, the fact that young college grads can't find jobs right now. And you mentioned this possibility that a lot of this has to do with AI. I think I agree with that. She seemed to be a little hesitant or think that we don't have enough data to support that, which I'm sure she's right. But I feel like we can go with conjecture at this point.

53:51What would be your advice or what would be your reaction to the fact that employment for young people with college degrees is hitting its lowest level in years right now? I mean, you're talking to someone who when I graduated from business school in 1992, 40 % of my class had a job. so the majority of us at graduate we'd gone to a quote-unquote elite business school and the majority of us didn't have jobs on graduation day and so it's all relative what the kids are going through now and i don't mean to diminish their problems but when you're talking about college grads and mba grads i think what a lot of it is it's not that they can't find a job they can't find a job they're willing to take because the expectations have just grown so grown so dramatically.

54:34I mean, the average compensation, I think at NYU Stern is$212 ,000. So my sense is if a kid wants to go, if a kid writes a letter and says, I just want to do work and research and I'm a great data analyst, my guess is they write that letter to a dozen people to get a lot of interviews and get a job offer. But I don't believe they can't get jobs. I just, I don't think they're willing to take the jobs that are available. And I think there's an absence of$212 ,000 a year jobs at Salesforce being product managers. And I hope that snakes back to universities who have to spend some of their endowment or start expecting more from faculty, a third of which should be put on an ice flow, to offer greater value such that they don't encourage kids to continue to borrow a ton of money from a nice lady in a pantsuit with a big logo over her head saying it always pays off to invest in your education.

55:27Or measure the employment rate of those colleges. The colleges should be on the hook for a low employment rate. If you graduate at that time, you can't find a job. That's the kid's fault, maybe. Maybe it's the market's fault, but you could also argue maybe it's the college's fault too. That's a great point. And I would advocate for, in terms of legislation, I would advocate for, it's really simple. Put universities on the hook for 10, 30, 50 % of bad student debt. And they're going to start saying, oh, we need to have a conversation. And that is, we're worried you're not going to be able to pay back your loans with a degree in art history.

56:06Now, so should you be thinking about making sure you have enough accounting courses? Or do we need to lower tuition such that we don't need to lend so much money? But basically, the people who get let off the hook here are the business schools, are the undergraduate institutions and the business schools themselves. that don't have, they can just dole out money like it's going out of style, but they're not on the hook for it if it doesn't get paid back. And also one piece of this bill that I actually like is they're suggesting that the profits on endowments of universities with over, I think, a billion dollar endowment goes from 1.4 % to 21%.

56:45And then a bunch of elite universities have bound together and said, well, what if we agree to spend at least 5 % of our endowment every year? and i like that that's the market saying look stop hoarding wealth and start spending your huge endowments on financial aid expansion of freshman classes investing in the community so that's that is one like that is the silver lining that is barely visible from this this shit show of a cloud called the gop tax bill by the way when i went to princeton reunions a couple of weeks ago and they had the sign in and you get your wristband to go into the into the university, they had all these flyers in the tent when you sign in with these big, bright letters on the flyer saying, we need your help.

57:31We need your help. The government is trying to raise the tax on our net investment income on our endowment. And it was like the biggest, it was the biggest message of the day that you need to help end this. You need to stop this. Meanwhile, you got all this actually bad stuff going on. And this is the one thing that Princeton gets very upset and all up in arms about, which I just thought that was quite funny, that that was their first message as you come back to Princeton. And it's interesting. I went to my reunion, and it was so uncomfortable because there were two women there that I had fucked.

58:05And I thought, last time I'm coming to a family reunion. That's good. That's good. Let's bring back on The Economist. Ah, productivity, minimum wage. Love it.

58:22This episode was produced by Claire Miller and Alison Weiss and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Mia Silverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Dan Shallan is our intern. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof2Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. If you liked what you heard, give us a follow and join us for a fresh take on markets on Monday.

58:50you help me in kind reunion as the world turns and the dark flies in love

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