6 Years to Thrive: Your Wealth Strategy for the Future

26:10Is your fucking mind not blown? You saw me. I loaded 120-page, 17 ,000-word GMI. and it created a two-way discussion by AI people with a very deep understanding of that document. Most of that document is graphs. It can read all of the graphs and understand what they mean. It'll give me notes on all of it, and then I can build note files based around other stuff. So let's say I want an exponential age note file. I just keep adding stuff, adding stuff, adding stuff, And I get this superpower of, A, having this voice podcast way of digesting this information for me, but also I get a different thing, which is the ability to then keep all of my notes in one space and access them like it's my own internet.

27:07And so then I can then write articles about that. So I could say, hey, knock me out an article. well, I don't know actually, but ChatGPT could do this easily, is then, okay, knock me out a quick article for LinkedIn or knock me out an article about XYZ that's part of that document.

27:31So it's an extraordinary moment in time to see that. I mean, that is literally magic. That's magic. I mean, I was speaking last night actually to Beeple, the artist, because I was talking about AI. Him and I had shared this passion for AI and he hadn't used advanced mode and I got to show him how to load it up on his thing, which was like, if you haven't got it yet and you're in the US, I think it's just been approved in the UK. Just basically off your phone, just get rid of it. Make sure it's closed, then reopen it and it comes. If you're on a computer, I think it's only when you've got the new kind of Apple M3 chip.

28:10I've got the M3 chip here, But again, because I'm not on the USIP, I can't show you guys that. But I showed him and he's like, oh my God, this is freaky. And then he comes back to me and says, my God, have you seen Notebook LLM? I'm like, yeah. He's like, I can't even get my head around it. And I think that's the same for all of us. And again, we've only just started some of this stuff. It's stupid. So anyway, that's enough of that. I think probably that's probably changed your life already, just in the small 25 minutes I've been chatting. And if it hasn't, then I don't know who you are. I don't even know how to use this yet.

28:50I don't even know the superpowers. If you guys are using any of these, if you stick in the chat how you're using them in ways that might surprise others, not in just the regular ways, but how you're getting some superpowers out, I think we'd all really, really benefit. And maybe at some stage, if we get a lot of you who really have found some superpowers, maybe David and I will interview you and you can show us some of what you're doing. Because again, this is really about all of us on this journey together. We're all trying to figure it out. So make sure you use the comment section, exchange ideas with each other and with me and David, because we are all learning, right?

29:25This is all new. I'm not a guide, a tutor who knows everything. I'm just figuring it out like you guys are and trying to give my observational ideas and put them into the framework that we've been building for our understanding. So talk about framework of understanding. The other big idea that I've been looking at is I'm sort of obsessed with this idea of left curve, right curve, mid curve. And I realize how easy it is to fall into the mid curve, particularly with technology. And I see mid curvers are arguing about, in fact, I'm going to find the page in GMI because I've got a nice little image that I want to show you because this is definitely mid-curve versus right curve.

30:10Mid-curve versus left-curve, right-curve. And I'm going to talk about another one that I actually wrote about in GMI as well. So I'm giving you alpha that you shouldn't really have, but because I love you, you can have it. Sorry, I need to find this in this document.

30:28Yeah. Okay. I don't know whether it's good. Let me see if I can zoom it a bit so the guys can pick it up. Okay, here we go. Peter, get ready for this. Sorry, I didn't clear it with you before, but you're used to my general chaos. Okay, this is an account I follow on Twitter, AI Safety Memes. It's very interesting because he's kind of always pointing out that we are sleeping on the sentience or whatever is going on. So this is a left curve, right curve. So left curve is, oh my God, this machine thinks, right? But the middle curve is language models can't reason. They're just parroting words from the data.

31:13They can't analyze their biases. They're not even very good at poetry or physics or whatever the thing is, or mathematics. This confirms a culture war talking point, blah, blah, blah. And the bottom is the left curve and right curve. it simulates thinking so it's thinking and that i think is very profound i think this is a a truth that we all get in the middle in semantics and pedantics and it's unnecessary to do so so there's another variation of this that i found myself in the trap of is we are all kind of talking a lot about energy sources. Well, you know, oil, it can't be used, and fossil fuels, we don't want to use that, and there's not enough of them to power the data centers, and it's a dirty business, and it's controlled by geopolitics.

32:04Oh, we could switch to natural gas. Natural gas is abundant, but, you know, it's harder to store. And then it's like, well, solar's never going to scale. You need batteries. and what about the stuff that goes into solar and wind power? That works, but we've got these wind turbines, so we all need nuclear, but nuclear, nobody wants to go to nuclear technology. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Add fucking nauseam. All day, all night. All the same stuff. And it was Elon who said something that he's brilliant at left and right. And he just said, the largest nuclear reactor we will ever need as a species is already in the sky.

32:52It's the sun. It's endless nuclear fission. So one of the mid-curve arguments is, well, density of energy source matters. Well, it does and it doesn't. It does because the sun is the densest energy form of all. It's just a bit further away. But what it creates is unbelievable abundance of energy. Okay, so maybe abundance is more important than density. That is the densest source. It literally is the largest nuclear reactor in our solar system. In fact, it's named after the solar system. is named after that sun. So then Elon put out a tweet, and he's like, once you understand the Kardashian scale, you realize that solar is going to scale to everything.

33:53And that was like, okay, what the fuck is the Kardashian scale? And when you look at it, it's like what type of civilizations we are. Type one civilization is the civilization. In fact, I've probably got my chat GPT note on this because it is a little bit complicated. Let me get to that. Kardash scale. Okay, reading out from... I wonder if I can get chat to read it out. I don't know, let's try. I don't know if it does, actually.

34:29No, there is a way of getting it to read it out. But the Kardash scale is a theoretical framework for measuring the technological advancement of a civilization based on its energy consumption capabilities. It was proposed by the Russian astrophysicist Nikolai Kardashev in 1964. The scale is divided into three primary types, subsequent extensions suggesting additional levels. Type 1, planetary civilization. A type 1 civilization can harness and utilize all the available energy resource of its home planet, including geothermal, solar, wind, and other forms of renewables and non-renewable. Energy output, approximately 10 to the power of 16, 10 to the power of 17 watts.

35:09Example, humanity is currently at about 0.7 on the Kardashian scale, as well as we're developing technologies. It's a logarithmic scale as well. So basically saying is that everything we ever need, we've got. And when Elon went through the numbers of, okay, what surface area of the world do we need to power the entire United States. It's like a small fraction of New Mexico or Arizona. And so you realize that when you go live in Elon's mind, you stop using the mid-curve, what that can't be done, and what about batteries? And you go into the, if physics says it's possible, then it's doable. So then the rabbit hole I went down, it's okay, what are the things in the way of this?

35:58Well, the solar panels and everything else are plummeting in price. They get more efficient over time. They're 20 % efficiency. They'll get to 30%, 35 % efficiency. Okay, that's good enough. Then it's like, well, how do you distribute it? Well, storage, David and I have talked about this, distributed grids. Well, I can take the sun. Oh, that's the other mid-curve. It's like, well, the sun doesn't shine all day. Or, well, there's sometimes when the sun doesn't shine at all. It's like, no shit, Sherlock. That's what batteries are for. And Tesla's already sold that at small level. And they do stack.

36:33But that battery technology at larger municipality or business level, that's coming very soon. So the point being is the technology will come. And then you look at the pace of technological advancements of batteries. They're all exponential. The prices of everything are exponentially going lower. The scaling of the technologies is going exponential. Solar is the fastest growing of all energy sources in the world. And it's vertical right now. And that's really happening in China and Europe. India's going vertical there as well. So what we're seeing is solar becoming what we all thought was, ah, it's not really good enough.

37:12It can run my fan in my house, but it can't run my aircon. So, well, it can run my aircon, but at night it's not very good. And I need to sell it back to the grid and take from the grid. to, well, I actually don't need the grid at all because I just use the Tesla battery and that balances my load, to Australia using massive Tesla power things to balance their entire grid for parts of Queensland. And you can see where this is going. And therefore, I kind of think that within all of this, yes, there was another argument on Twitter that I was looking at, which made the point valid, is solar, yes, can exist on its own.

37:55But really, if you hear what I said about the Car-Dash scale, it talks about all of the resources. And obviously, oil is one of them, and gas is another. But the reality is this thing is way cheaper, solar. But solar can use thermopower. It can use wind. All of these things as buffers. So you carry robustness where solar is the largest part of it, And all of these others act as the buffers for whatever conditions threaten the solar condition or the distribution. You know, if you use a distributed grid, then you don't need to rebuild the entire infrastructure. Yes, at some places, you need a phenomenally powerful grid.

38:37Well, no shit. That's what Microsoft is doing with Three Mile Island that David and I talked about. When you need massive energy, well, then you can build nuclear. And what they've done is actually rent nuclear from somebody else. But, you know, as we bring the small nuclear stuff in, which everybody goes, dot, dot, dot, oh, nuclear. And then when I go down that rabbit hole, you find out it's actually, we're still a lot of this stuff that hasn't been solved yet. But let's assume nuclear is part of it. The speed of which nuclear technology, I wonder if I can find that thing as well. That's another really interesting point for you guys.

39:16let me get to this a bit further on it's all in GMI as I keep saying that's where all of my kind of thinking comes from

39:30yeah so here's a tweet consider the 600 plus gigawatts of solar the world will add this year 600 gigawatts it has the terawatt per hour generation of 150 nuclear plants. Okay, so people don't even understand the scale of solar. 150 nuclear plants. The world has 60 new nuclear plants in construction that may start in five or 10 years. Some start now, others later. Solar is building the generational output of all of them combined every four months. Okay, this is where we're now realizing that everything we understand is probably wrong. Now, let's assume his maths are wrong, but it's kind of what Elon was getting to.

40:19Solar is scaling so fast in terms of output, power generated, cost declines, rate of technological change, plus battery changeless, all of this, that if you look at the maths, it may be impossible for nuclear ever to catch up until we get to these kind of ultra-small nuclear devices, which we don't have yet. They're literally not in production. And then we've got to get through the approvals process. So maybe they're 10 years away at real scale. They're going to try, obviously. And maybe we'll get some out in the next four or five years, but really to scale them. And what's interesting is solar is doing 150 nuclear power plants every, Sorry, it's doing 150 nuclear power plants a year in new capacity.

41:21Anyway, so these are things I like to think about is it stops us forming narratives based around political opinions or opinions that we hear from others and forces us to think a little more broadly. And when you find that you're arguing why something can't be true, and yet the laws of physics say it can be true, just not been solved yet, you realize you're probably in the middle of the curve. And again, Elon does this a lot, and it's really irritating that he's so good at doing this. I literally don't understand how his brain works. I've never seen anything like it. And, you know, he may be a total dick.

42:07But, oh, my God, his ability to go back to first principles, not in the way that Silicon Valley talks about first principles, but his basic thing is what does physics say is possible and work from that. I just find that all very mind-blowing. And talking of the mind-blowing stuff around Elon, obviously, we've got, I think, in October 10th, we've got the unveiling of what the RoboTaxis is. And what else? I mean, Elon says this will be one of the greatest product launches in all history. I have no idea what's up his sleeve. And obviously, it won't be ready to go to market because Elon stuff never is.

42:48I think it's something to do with the robots plus the RoboTaxis and that kind of AI robot stuff. I mean, don't forget, a lot of people talk about this now, but Elon's Grok 3 is trading on the largest GPU cluster in the world. And Dojo is scaling up for the cars self-driving. So the cars are now, as far as I can see, giving updates every week or two weeks. And he's like, you have no understanding how fast this is going to happen because Dojo is such a vastly massive supercomputer and it's all being trained on this. Meanwhile, he's created one of the largest GPU clusters in the world and is scaling that up.

43:31It's not fully ramped up yet to train GroK 3. I already use GroK a lot because it covers current things and you can search Twitter and it's just very, very good. I mean, I'm mind blown by GroK. And we haven't even started. So, you know, he's got that going on. Let's see what happens. So, you know, Tesla's one of the stocks that we're very long of and very excited about. And I think it's going to do, well, we'll see. We'll see what he comes out with on the 10th. You know, there will always be this, oh my God, stuff. Don't forget, we've also got this, we're still waiting for this roadster that apparently uses rockets that actually flies because he wants to create flying cars.

44:18Does he demo that? I have no clue. But, you know, this is the point being is when we're at this point in the exponential age, you just need to drop your cynicism because fucking anything can happen, literally anything. If you can create a real-time podcast from a 16 ,000-word doc, what does that mean for audio books? What does it mean for anything? What does it mean for things like Real Vision? I have no clue. The LLMs, we know, we keep asking those questions. What does it mean for, and we all don't know, but it means a humanity-level change. And yes, we will have flying cars because it's physically,

45:04it's physics says it can happen, so it will happen, to Elon's point. If it's worth doing, they'll do it. And yes, we can generate enough power. And yes, it's very mid-curve to assume, oh, my God, they're going to run out of power because of the data centers, and oil is going to go to$400, and everyone's going to face inflation. This sort of stuff has proven to be wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. So I just assume that as we scale the needs for energy, we will scale energy at the same pace. Yes, there will be occasional shortages, whether it's chip shortages, stuff like that. But talking of chip short is interesting.

45:44I mean, the semis still trade not great right now. I don't really understand why. I mean, we took profits off in GMI and pro macro from those trades. We got it as part of the basket because it's so important. But I kind of feel like, again, if you listen to Larry Ellison and his ridiculous conversation about, well, we had to take Jensen Huang out for dinner, him and Elon, and beg him that they will buy as many GPUs as he could give. And then you hear what Mark Zuckerberg is doing. He's just like, I can buy all the GPUs because I have all the cash flow and I'm going to keep going. And we haven't stopped.

46:24In fact, we barely started, was what Zuckerberg was saying this week, last week. And Google are in the same boat. Microsoft are in the same boat. Tesla's in the same boat. So they're basically saying right now, Zuckerberg was on tape saying that as far as they can tell, knowledge is almost infinitely scalable currently with LLMs and reinforced learning models just by adding more compute. They said, we haven't got to the point where it plateaus out. So we're just going to keep adding more and more compute. I mean, this is, I've, you know, well, I'll keep saying I've never seen anything like this.

46:58Nobody has, nobody ever will again, what's happening. So, you know, and that's without Chinese demand for chips. And that's without anybody else doing this. Everybody needs more and more and more and more compute. So that's really what I wanted to talk to you about today. It's like, you know, I get stuck now how to even grasp all of the things happening at the same time. David and I try and tease them apart. And these kind of the State of the Union address, this quarterly thing, for me was really about trying to frame it within the exponential age thesis and make sure you're coming along for the ride.

47:36That's when we started the exponentialist. And now it's so obvious what is going on, but yet so unfathomable that I feel like it's actually pretty hard for me to add value apart from just talk about stuff and think about stuff and want you to do the same in the, in the comment section, because there's so many things I'm not seeing. Obviously there's all of the stuff that's happened in, in, in, in biotech, uh, and the life sciences side, the genetic sciences side. You know, there's so much in every component part of the exponential age. You can double click and they're all doing this at an exponential rate.

48:11And it's impossible to see the magnitude and the picture of joining all these dots together. That's my job. And I'm pretty good at joining dots together. And I can't join them all together because I can't even see all the dots anymore. It's just, and they're all moving too fast. So even keep our eye on or keep into our news feeds. What I do do, what does help me is, you know, once you start following the right people on Twitter, just anybody, you know, from Sam Altman to the people who respond to them to maybe the AI meme guy that I just talked about and whatever, you'll get suggestions in your feed once you start watching articles and then start creating a Twitter list.

48:51and then once you've got Twitter lists, you'll then be able to have your own curated source that doesn't have all the other shit in it. And you can go and say, I want to catch up on AI or robotics or whatever and you can have your own feeds of that. I find that's a pretty decent hack. I don't know, you could probably ask Grok, hey, what are the top 10 account? In fact, I'm going to do it for you right now. In fact, I'm going to do it on screen. I've no idea this is going to work, but let's try. So I'm going to bring up my Twitter account.

49:19Let's go to Grok. Okay, what are the top 20 X counts for AI advancement?

49:43Do you see what's happening here?

49:50right you would come to me and go ral who do i follow and i'm like well try this person how do you spell that blah blah blah blah i just go to grok it's like one second there are all those you follow those people see who's in the conversations it's it's crazy if you're not using grok you're really missing out so listen i'm going to show you something else with grok um let's ask another question

50:18What's the hottest news in crypto today? I could type the gray.

50:35Okay, it's real time. I want to know how my sister's doing in Asheville.

50:57You get it now? You've got your own curated news service. You don't even need to go onto Twitter. You can just go on with your curiosity. Now, you can obviously take this out and stick it into your notebook LM and start putting all this together. anything you do can now all be put in one place and the AI will sort it. And that leads me into something that Punk 6529 had written about and didn't really understand it at first. He's like, listen, make sure you take as many photos as you can. And yes, you will have a million photographs, and of which they're all nonsense and you don't know what to do with them and you can't look at them and they don't come anywhere and they're all in this mega file and you're paying for the storage of it, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, mid-curve.

51:48And his answer was, just wait, the AI will sort it all out for you. And that was profoundly genius because very soon with the new Apple, it will sort out all of the photographs, all the millions of photographs and serve it to you, whatever you want to do. We're seeing it with Spotify and music. I'd just say, hey, listen, I want a playlist because I've got a group of friends coming. They're aged in their early 50s. They're kind of like a chill vibe, but they grew up in London, so they want to build that London edge. And then after about two hours, we want the pace to pick up because it's going to get a bit noisier and we'll be having a bit of fun after wine, it can do it.

52:26And it's the same with the photographs. Anything you want can be served to you in any way. So it's going to digest all knowledge and serve it back to you in simple forms. So hopefully you've been able to digest all the knowledge today. Go and play with the tools. I've barely started. We don't have time. None of us. We don't really know. We're always a bit scared. It's like, I don't really know how to change my workflow. It kind of works for me to do it this way right now. But we've got to push each other and push ourselves because we need to be at the front of this. We can't be behind. We need to be at the front.

53:00That's what the exponentialist is all about. Anyway, guys, again, please add any great insights for stuff in the comments section. It's important for all of us. And I will see you next time with David. So I hope you guys enjoyed that. Just a bit of how I think. I mean, that's all off the cuff. I'm just thinking out loud, showing people some of the things that matter to me that will matter to you. That's part of what the Exponentialist does. The Exponentialist goes through all of this in great detail. Yes, I also write about it a little bit in Pro Macro, but really all of this thinking is in the Exponentialist and also in Global Macro Investor, where this whole theme has been running for many, many years now.

53:39Anyway, I hope you enjoy. go to realvision.com forward slash the future. If you're on the platform watching this, then just go to the marketplace and take a free trial and hope you enjoy it. And again, if you're watching this on YouTube, just click and subscribe to the channel. Great. See you around next time. Picture yourself on a beach, retired early and enjoying financial freedom. If this is your dream, then now's the time to level up your investing game and Real Vision can help you. We arm you with the knowledge, the tools, and the network to succeed on your financial journey on your own terms.

54:18Take control of your future and visit realvision.com forward slash free. That's realvision.com forward slash free.

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