BTC: The Best Investment in Human History with Anthony Scaramucci

0:00Today's Real Vision Daily Briefing is brought to you by Chintai, your partner in asset tokenization. Licensed and regulated by Singapore's monetary authority and powered by the innovative Chex token, Chintai offers a compliant, one-stop solution for bringing real-world assets on chain. Chintai enables the tokenization of virtually any asset, from carbon credits to corporate debt, private funds and real estate, enhancing liquidity and optimizing efficiency for all. The technology becomes largely invisible and seamless to the end user. I can take a selective store of value within a wider portfolio in a fairly liquid form, very efficiently, to anything, whether it's some high-value whiskey, whether it's a particular supercar that's a one of three limited edition, therefore, in this fungible trading of them in a liquid form, is the true endgame here for tokenization.

0:54With billions of dollars in client deals facilitated, explore how you can take advantage of tokenization by visiting realvision.com slash chintai. If you want to participate in the upside of crypto, but don't have the time or the inclination to go truly down the rabbit hole, then Real Vision crypto might just be for you. New from Real Vision, an RV crypto subscription gets you access to a trading basket complete with risk management strategy, technical analysis updates, private discord channel, monthly drinks online and more. And it's led by a team of RV favorites, including Chris Bullock, Jamie Coutts, Peter Pinkassoff, and more to be announced soon.

1:35So, barely have time to listen to the end of this ad, but want to take part in this crypto cycle without having to dedicate all of your time to figuring it out? Go to realvision.com forward slash RV crypto. That's realvision.com forward slash RV crypto to see if RV crypto is the right fit for you.

2:01hi i'm raoul pal and welcome to my show the journeyman where i journey to that nexus of crypto macro and the exponential age of technology what i'm really trying to do with this show is help you unfuck your future it's a term you've heard us at real vision but we all know how fucked our futures are. The current setup from central banks to basing currency, geopolitics, and the expensiveness of this world means we have to do something. We can't just sit on the sidelines and hope we get rescued. We've been given some life rafts, some opportunities, and we need to take them. Unfucking your future is all about getting that understanding of what the world is really all about and how you can take control of your own life, your own finances, and your own future.

3:02And that's what Real Vision is all about and this channel is about. So listen, if you haven't signed up to this channel, just please do so. It's a very simple click of the button and you won't miss anything. You see, not only do I interview some of the best guests in the world on those three key topics. But I also do my own presentations to keep you abreast of my own thinking, whether they're right or whether they're wrong, at least to understand where I'm coming from and how I see the world. In addition, I also do the drinks with Raoul, the AMAs, just so we have a bit of community fun, do a bit of wine tasting, a bit of snacks, some general insulting of each other, and having a laugh because we've got to have fun in this space too.

3:46The other thing I like to do is I like to include a lot of the main interviews where I've been interviewed as well on other people's podcasts. So it gives you guys the chance to hear my thinking evolve and it's all in one place. It's all on this channel, The Journeyman. So make sure you sign up for it because I think it's really important. And if you are ready to unfuck your future, then that's what we built Real Vision for. And it's free to join. It's an incredible community of the smartest people in the world, like you, experts in something, all trying to figure this out together. So we've got this amazing community.

4:25We've got all sorts of programming from crypto to macro to geopolitics to technology, everything that you need in your journey to help you. So anyway, go to realvision.com. Sign up for that. It is free. it will definitely help you unfuck your future. And my God, we all need it. Anyway, next up was where I was interviewed by my good friend, Anthony Scaramucci. Mooch and I always have fun together. It's not that long an interview, but it gives you another insight into how I'm thinking about things and how Mooch is thinking about things. I hope you find it useful. I'll see you afterwards. Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes.

5:11In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

5:21Back on Speak Up with a special encore performance is Ralph Paul. And I just told him backstage, I don't like bringing on the people that are better looking than me, but you are backed by popular demand. You have quite a demographic. I think the demographic is not the, my demographic, Raul, is like 75 to 95. But your demographic is like 22 to 50. So God bless you. God bless you. He's the founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, GMI. Now, Raul, you came on. I was sitting in sunny Hawaii, February the 9th. Bitcoin was at$47 ,000. I thought I was a very happy camper at$47 ,000. But now, if Bitcoin was$47 ,000, I'd be crying in my soup.

6:12Bitcoin is now, as I'm talking to you, almost$68 ,000. Tell me what's going to happen. A lot has happened since February 9th. Let's get right into it. What's going to happen? You've been spot on. And I will also point out you were the most popular, most downloadable. Speak up with Anthony Scaramucci. Hey, everyone. We're going to take a quick pause and hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back. Hi, you. Hey, listen, if you're enjoying this, come and see me on the YouTube channel, Raoul Pal, The Journeyman. Sign up there, get everything I ever do. See you there. Your favourite neighbourhood spot grows with Square.

6:51Indeed, my favourite neighbourhood spot has quickly become Todd Snyder in Williamsburg. Todd Snyder is one of my favourite menswear shops and has supplied me with all the clothes I have needed this quite hot summer. Every business has different goals, but Square is the business platform that supports them all. From opening a new location, selling something new, or just expanding their reach. Indeed, I've seen it with Todd Snyder. In Square, also, you can get real-time insights, so don't wait for end-of-day reports. Go to square.com forward slash go forward slash real vision to learn more about how your business can grow with Square.

7:30That's S-Q-U-A-R-E dot com slash G-O slash R-E-A-L-B-I-S-I-O-N.

7:44Well, I have no idea why. It's just the English accent. That's all it is. It's the looks. I actually think it's the looks. I think it's the looks and the smile. So listen, what's going on is the same story that's been on for a while. We are in the crypto macro spring to summer transition. That is when liquidity starts coming into the system, happens to correspond with the US election cycle, because obviously politicians can't help but give out candy around election time. Yes, of course. It's also the Bitcoin halving time. So Bitcoin halving reduces the supply. And then there was the ETF. So basically, we've got a perfect setup of liquidity, plus new demand, plus reduced supply.

8:29And so the rest of the year should play out the same way. I mean, I continue to be very bullish this year and very bullish for most of next year. But let me just, well, I'm going to play devil's advocate for a second. Okay, I'm a newbie. I lack understanding of Bitcoin. I'm watching the price movement. And so I have a little bit of FOMO. But explain to me what is happening. And then while you're explaining to me what is happening, explain to me what a having is, a having.

9:09So because Bitcoin is basically a share of a network, the more people who join the network, the more value goes up. So as the ETF brings people in, as people start fearing the governments and their deficits, they start looking for different solutions. One of the reasons gold has been rallying as the same. So what we're seeing is this was the most successful launch of any ETF in all history, which tells you it's not just an ETF. It's that the idea of Bitcoin itself is resonating with people. They kind of know they're getting screwed somewhere by the system. And this feels like a way of getting higher returns with more volatility, but it kind of saves them from what is going on.

10:03So let's assume that this is the largest ETF launch in history and a lot of newbies have come in. Well, it's happening at a magic time. The magic time is what's known as the Bitcoin halving. So new Bitcoin comes onto the market via miners, Bitcoin miners, who undergo huge mathematical calculations to produce a Bitcoin. There is a fixed number of Bitcoins that can be produced each year. So it's a competition to produce them. So you need a lot of computing power. And then every four years, the algorithm of Bitcoin itself halves the number. So if there were 100 Bitcoin being produced by miners every day, whatever the number is, right now, after April 20th, it goes to 50.

10:53So there's more people coming into the market, which is new demand, and new supply is shrinking. So all the time, the only suppliers really sellers of Bitcoin who hold Bitcoin right now. But Bitcoin is one of these weird assets where 80 % of all holders just hoard it, like you and I. We just don't do anything with it. We just hold it. And so there's really only 20 % that's available for trading. Well, I mean, speak for yourself. I stare at my Bitcoin once every five seconds, just so you know, And I've slowed it down from once every two and a half seconds. But go ahead. Keep going. You're doing beautifully.

11:32So that mechanism is driving the valuation up of Bitcoin over time. Now, it also means that people start to see this asset going up because there's less supply and lots of demand, and it joins more and more people. because this asset is the best performing asset in all recorded human history. Bitcoin itself has done 20 million percent since 2012. It has produced 150 % annualized returns since 2012. Ethereum has done, which is another cryptocurrency, about 170 % and Solana 190 % or 200%. So this asset is by far and away the greatest performing asset in all of humanity. And that gets people's attention, obviously, when people's returns have been low, and people can't get out of the wealth trap.

12:33They can't afford their houses. But I'm old. I'm an old person. This seems like a new thing. I'm old. I'm old. How do you, How do you know, you know, why, you know, Jamie Dimon tells me that this is a decentralized pet rock or a Ponzi scheme. So so go ahead. You know, like honestly, like if you saw the viewer feedback for your presentation, it was off the chart. But when I look granularly at what we're doing at Speak Up, I have a lot of people that are listening demographically that do not get it. and I've written a book about it. I try to go out on the speaking circuit and evangelize about it.

13:21And I still feel like there's a lip in a cup spread before I can get people over the hump. And I want you to help me. I want you to explain it in a way where a rock hits somebody in the head and they have to go out tomorrow and get off of zero. They have to not be zero exposure to Bitcoin. Okay. The real reason, forget all of the complexity of what this is and the technology, forget all of that. Think of why most people have bought gold. It's to protect themselves from the action of central banks. It has proven itself over several thousand years to be a way of having a store of value. Bitcoin is that for a digital age.

14:08Okay, most people know that story. They don't understand the other side of the story, is why does nobody feel as wealthy as they thought they should be? Particularly if you're a bit older, you're like, why are my savings not as much as I thought they would be, or I can't afford as much? That's the big conundrum. And the fact is, is that particularly since 2008, when we broke the world because of debt, we have been using the printing of money to try to paper over the cracks. Because economic growth from an aging population is slower. We don't have much productivity because people are retiring. And we've got too much debt.

14:50So people have to service the debt. So the central banks have been doing a bit of magic, which is printing of money. At one point, it was called quantitative easing. Now they don't do that as much anymore because everyone knows that game because that's the money printer go burr. So what they do is they inject liquidity into the system, whether through all these weird things you hear about, like reverse repo markets, stuff like that. Basically, it's to hide the printing of money, put it into the system. When you look at that on a globalized level, because everybody's doing it, you're debasing the level of fiat currency.

15:24And what that means is your dollar today buys you less assets tomorrow. Now, why do we buy assets? We buy assets to save money for future consumption. So if I were to buy gold today, it's because I want to release it in future and I want its purchasing power protector for it to go up. Now, when you look at what's happening with the debasement of currency, they're debasing currency by about 8 % on year on average amongst all the global central banks. Add in about 3 % to 4 % global inflation, you have 12 % hurdle rate on your assets before you actually make any money. So your savings, you need to be making 12%.

16:10Now, over the last, since 2012, the S &P 500 has made 12 % annualized. The NASDAQ has made about 24 % annualized. So tech stocks have helped. But crypto is the one that really offsets this and allows you to generate a lot of wealth. So if you're in your 50s like me, or your 60s, and you're thinking, I just don't know if my retirement savings are enough, then a small allocation to an asset that does 150 % a year will compound massively and will help you in having purchasing power in your retirement. Because nobody wants to be broke when they're 85 years old. That's everybody's biggest fear. Okay.

16:57So that is brilliant. And I want to say something to you. That is exactly what people need to hear. And Pompliano said something this week, which I'll repeat on this show, and I did his analysis. Since 2000, January, the US dollar has lost 22 % of its purchasing power. That's been the impact of inflation. So again, just for viewers and listeners, if I have a dollar in 2020, it's worth 78 cents today. Now, however, if I own assets, maybe they went up with inflation. So the irony is I feel richer on a nominal basis. This is the sinister plot that's pursued by the politicians. Because if I had$100 ,000 in 1989, that's like having$670 ,000 today, Rob, in terms of its purchasing power.

17:55But if I have$670 ,000, it sounds like it's more money, and I'm richer, right? But I'm not. I'm not. So$6.7 million, I'm rich, but it's the same amount of money as being a millionaire 34, 35 years. That inflation is not the only, that only captures a small part. It's the actual debasement of currency that makes assets look like they're going up. So the Venezuelan stock market, If you ever see a chart, it looks like it goes vertical. It looks like the best performing stock market in the world. Right. Of course. When you put it in Venezuelan bolivars, it's down 90%. Right. It's because they've been devaluing the bolivar.

18:33So let's put the US stock market. You don't have to give me the exact number, but I know you're a macro guy. So the US stock market in Bitcoin has done what? Down 99.97%. percent since 2012. The Nasdaq, since 2012, not even since Bitcoin started.

19:02Every single asset on earth versus Bitcoin since 2012 is down 99.9%. Okay. So when someone says it's an inflation, is just for viewers and listeners, more context. Your dollar is worth 22 % less. Bitcoin has gone up 800. It's gone up 8x since January of 2020. And so this is the reason why people like Raoul and myself are ringing the bell on Bitcoin. Let's switch to the ETF for a second. When the ETF came out, there were pundits saying, oh, the ETF is priced in. Remember that? Someone said, oh, it's priced in. Was it priced in? None of us expected$10 billion of demand in six weeks or whatever stupid number it was, right?

19:57It was, we kind of thought it might do it in a year because that's what gold did, GLD in its first year. But it did it in a record short amount of time, and it doesn't seem to be slowing down. So no, it wasn't priced in. We didn't realize how many ordinary people, RAAs and investors are starting to realize this issue that you're talking about is I need something to protect my wealth into the future and maybe make me money, not just protect my savings, but I want to make some money too. And this does that. As it says, if you hold Bitcoin over a few years, you can buy something like five times as much S &P 500 just in a few years.

20:47So your purchasing power is going up dramatically every year you own it. And that even takes into account the fact that it goes down every four years a significant amount. Over the long run, it doesn't really matter. So let me ask you this, because this is something that I was dying to ask you last time. The halving. Is that priced in? Because you're right. We didn't have$10 billion. You had asked me on February 9th when you joined me on this show, were we going to see $10 billion in the first quarter of the inception of Bitcoin? I would have said, absolutely not. But the halving, we know. The halving is going from 900 coins a day that the network is producing down to 450.

21:33So is the halving, which is going to come up 17 days from now, 15 to 20 days from now, is that pricing? Hey, everyone. We're going to take another quick break and hear away from our partners. We'll be right back. If you want to participate in the upside of crypto but don't have the time or the inclination to go truly down the rabbit hole, then Real Vision crypto might just be for you. New from Real Vision, an RV crypto subscription gets you access to a trading basket complete with risk management strategy, technical analysis updates, private Discord channel, monthly drinks online, and more. And it's led by a team of RV favorites, including Chris Bullock, Jamie Kutz, Peter Pinkassoff, and more to be announced soon.

22:18So barely have time to listen to the end of this ad, but want to take part in this crypto cycle without having to dedicate all of your time to figuring it out, go to realvision.com forward slash RV crypto. That's realvision.com forward slash RV crypto to see if RV crypto is the right fit for you.

22:42It's so known, but what is not priced in is the liquidity cycle that comes around the same time. Around election years, as I mentioned before, we get a lot of liquidity coming in. And people aren't very good at forecasting that. Even though everyone knows about the halving, nobody figures about liquidity. So they kind of take current market conditions and say, well, if you remove the supply, everything will be fine. But what actually happens is because liquidity comes into the markets, demand starts exploding at the same time as supply. And it always takes everybody by surprise. Now, it's not a one-day event.

23:18It's not like suddenly you wake up on the 20th of April and Bitcoin's up 50%. It tends to kind of chop around that period because people are like, well, it's in the price. And then before you know it, by June, Bitcoin's at 85 ,000, 95 ,000, something like that. And then you're off to the races. And then there's more demand comes in. Because remember, we talked before that as price goes up, as number go up, more people get involved. Right. And there's less supply. So it starts to get really reflexive. So it kind of gets really squeezy. And that goes on for a period of time, usually about a year and a half after the halving.

23:58Did we just experience our last bear market in crypto or Bitcoin specifically? or are there future bear markets coming? There's bear markets in all assets, and this is just an asset. And it's a very reflexive asset, so it tends to over-exaggerate the moves. But there is a good question within that is the severity of the downside markets that in Bitcoin were classically 80 %-ish, last one was 65%, so it was less than others. Is that changed because of the ETF? Well, obviously, many of the ETF holders faced with their first round of volatility in the space will panic out much like everybody else, but that's fine.

24:37But I think there's going to be a bunch of the millennial cohort who are going to put it in their 401k. And that's every two week buying regardless. So my guess is that it'll dampen the volatility to the downside. So next time around, it won't be down 85, it won't be down 75, it won't be down 65, but maybe it's down 45, 50. Okay, so like me, though, you're not a Bitcoin maximalist. And so for people out there, that means that people like Raul and I, we love Bitcoin, but we also see other assets in the cryptocurrency space, other digital assets that we think have use cases and utility. And so one of those assets is layer one technologies.

25:23These are cryptocurrencies that are working towards decentralization, perhaps not as perfect as Bitcoin in terms of its decentralization, but they're assets where we can add a layer or a smart contract on, and we can create transactions and activity. So which ones of those do you like? You mentioned some of them in February, but let's go back to them. And by the way, you mentioned Solana. I stuck you with a price prediction. And the Solana has moved up a lot since you mentioned it. So tell me a little bit about these layer ones and the smart contracts, and where are they going? What's the future?

26:08So think of a blockchain, a layer one blockchain, like the Bitcoin is a blockchain, but it's not used for much yet. They're building applications on it now. But there's other ones like Ethereum is basically another layer to the internet that allows the transfer and storage of value, whether it's digital assets or even real world assets. You can have contracts on chain, stuff like this. So that kind of sits on top of the internet. And there's a few variations of this. One is the Ethereum virtual machine, which is Ethereum. The cryptocurrency, Ethereum, is your share and your payment system to use that network.

26:53It's just like a mobile phone network. You might use T-Mobile. Okay, great. And you pay your bills to T-Mobile. If you want to use Ethereum's network, you pay using Ethereum, which is their native token. Okay, pretty straightforward. But there's a couple of competing ones that are big. The main competing one is Solana. Solana is a faster, cheaper blockchain, maybe less decentralized, but certainly less deep and broad in the number of developers working on it, number of applications, but it's rising up fast. That is another system. You might find another 5G provider that's not T-Mobile, and you might want to use them instead.

27:40Maybe they've got different benefits. Then on top of that, there's another type of blockchain that's coming up in the background, which is the Move protocol, which came out of Facebook, DM. And there's a blockchain like Sui UI, which is another very fast, very cheap, very innovative blockchains. So they all kind of allow different mechanisms what to use. They're like different computer systems where some have different benefits over others. So there's about four or five of these that are gaining traction, Sui's earlier stage. So that might be put with some of the other early ones out there. But Solana and Ethereum are the kind of big daddies of this space that have been growing.