Drinks with Raoul: Bitcoin ATH & Banana Zone Phase 2 (Round 16)

24:35It's the US government selling bonds. The US government, they're in the Middle East right now. Well, they were in the Middle East. They're not selling weapons. They're not selling AI. They're not selling data centers. They are selling bonds. The US is in the business of selling bonds. they have trillions and trillions and trillions, tens of trillions of dollars of these fucking things to sell. And so they have to go to the Middle East that has trillions of dollars to buy them. So Scott Besson is a bond salesman. Donald Trump is a bond salesman. They're all bond salesmen. So anyway, so if bond yields get too high, Scott Besson has already said, as the Fed have said, we will step in.

25:18We're getting to the point where Japanese bond yields are too high, US bond yields are too high, and the governments are going to have to think, what do we do about this? And they will find some mechanism to stuff it into the banking system or on the balance sheet of the central banks. Using something like yield curve control, they'll dress it up, put lipstick on a pig and call it something amazing, give it maybe a four-letter acronym to sound even more amazing than three-letter acronyms, and they'll sort out the bond issue. That is the benefit of being these gigantic countries and not a small emerging market.

25:51You can act like an emerging market and pretend you're not, and you can force your huge savings pools into these vehicles. So bonds, I don't think, are a problem because the reaction function from central banks is always, and in every case, to print more money. They've removed the left tail risk for market. Sorry. I'd rather do it with my mouth closed, but we have this argument every week, every month when I do this. So I think they will solve it. Also, really, bond yields, 10-year yields have been a pretty sideways range. In fact, let me show you a chart of that. I've got plenty more charts to show you, and I'm running so late, but the questions will only be on Real Vision, and you'll have tons of questions.

26:45This is not going to run for an hour. This is going to run for an hour and a half now, 45 minutes, because I haven't seen you guys in two months now. Lots to catch up. I'm feeling on a roll. I've got two bowls of champagne open, and worst comes to the worst. I'm going to eat Chick-fil-A and not have dinner. Well, actually, I did buy some Pepto-Bismol earlier, so maybe I'm safe. Maybe I'll be okay. So let me share you my trading view here. And just very simply, let me just get to my charts before I share it. Okay, so share chart, trading view, get rid of that. Basically, bonds have been at the same point so many times over the last few years.

27:35so there's actually nothing really going on bonds everyone freaks out about when they get to the top of the range uh and then they don't now maybe these break higher if they break higher answer is print money stop that happening immediately because if not you nuke the housing market you new main street and all of the things that you don't want to happen so generally speaking beg the Saudis, beg Abu Dhabi, beg Qatar, buy our bonds, get the Chinese to do the same by agreeing a deal, get the Japanese to do the same, make sure the Europeans buy our bonds. And if not, stick on our own balance sheet because that's what we get to do because we're the US.

28:16So if I share you the charts, I didn't share it earlier. There's the chart, bonds, bond yields. For the last, since 2022, they've basically gone nowhere. Everyone freaks out at the top, so the world's going to end, freaks out at the bottom, rates going to zero. I still think they come lower, but maybe I'm wrong. Doesn't really matter. I'll show you some charts about what happened in 2017. Last time we went through the same machinations of we're all going to die, Trump's going to ruin the world, and nothing actually happened apart from the markets, crypto, tech, equities, everything just went to the moon.

28:52So bond markets are something I would suggest you should not be worrying about, which I'm I'm going to continue. I've taken the choice. This Limitage, a bit more expensive wine, because I'm a man of refined taste, it's actually fucking good. It's actually really, really good. It's from Rodeo, which is a French estate anyway, and it's got that H to it. It's really, really, really nice. America, you can do this stuff. Maybe it's just California. Maybe California, because they make better food than everybody else as well. The rest of you make pig swill. the Californians make actually kind of fresh nice healthy food and good wine but um well that's probably too strong a word but you kind of know what i mean right domino's pizza um okay so i'm reading down my list what am i supposed to be doing now okay let's go to the presentation the alpha zone dun dun dun dun dun dun dun it's kind of out of order so it's all going to be really scrappy and everybody's saying well yeah he's a bit drunk doesn't know what he's doing.

29:54I'm not drunk yet. I'm only in my second glass of wine, but I shall be probably drunk later because crypto is all-time high and I'm vindicated because I told you so. So there we go. Drinks with Rell. Here we go. The macro investing tool. Julian made this all very nice for me. Let's start with the dollar. Listen, the dollar is the largest, most important macro variable on earth. Nothing comes close. The dollar is 87 % of world trade. It's how the US adds and withdraws liquidity of the global system. It's how all commodities trade. It is the big daddy. And what we had is the dollar had been in a very sideways range for the whole of 23, 24, 25.

30:30Then it started weakening. It got the most oversold. It got three standard deviations oversold. And it's somewhat bounced since. Now, why do we care about that? Because every time it does this, the 12-month gain after a drop of that magnitude is huge. We had it in 2015, the Nasdaq gained 18%, 35 % in 2022, and back in 2020, 61%. Things like a weak dollar. The global economy loves a weak dollar. China wants a weaker dollar. Everybody wants a weaker dollar. Scott Besson wants a weaker dollar. Donald Trump wants a weaker dollar. A weaker dollar is the key to making the world go round. And when it happens, things like Bitcoin go apeshit.

31:21So the 12-month gain after a large drop in the dollar, 119%, 175%, 592%. These are big deals because a weaker dollar is a change in the denominator of most assets. The S &P 500, also after the DXY, tends to be a very positive thing. So the dollar weakening is hugely positive. And I'll come on to a bit of how this is replaying 2017. You've seen some of this before, but none of you actually listen to what I have to say. You watch it once, then you watch 17 other videos by stupid people reiterating stuff that we've done or inventing new stories i keep trying to tell you the same things over and over and over again uh you don't listen um hopefully i've got you to drink finer wine that'll be a start eat better food that'll be a better start um and then eventually you might start listening to say you know ral knows a bit about what he's talking about he's not always right i'm definitely not but i kind of know a little bit of what i'm talking about but no no you want to go on x and here's some guy saying it's the end of the world because that narrative makes you scared and if it makes you scared then you've got attention the world trades off attention and maybe when i come and say there's nothing to be scared about attention goes away because it de-escalates people and then you go back on x again and somebody goes the world's going to end you're like oh my god oh my god what's going to happen ral ral save me i'm like There's nothing going on, guys.

32:53Nothing has changed. I've been telling the same shit since the low in 2022. And luckily, that's been like, God, that soft cheese is epic. I'm going to tell you again what it was. It was a Vermont greenery, ash-ripened bambouche, goat's milk, aged cheese from Websterville, Vermont. Guys, you make great cheese, whoever you are. Those are really good cheese. Okay.

33:24So, Trump came in 2017. The world freaked out. Oh, my God, we've got this nutcase as a president. He's going to nuke everything. He's going to come with tariffs. He came in and said the dollar's too strong. Genius. Why? Because the dollar makes the world. And what happens is the dollar fell over the first year strongly. What happened this time, we said this before the dollar peaked. We said it's going to repeat the same cycle. and it did exactly as we said. And not only that, it's falling faster than last time around. And you see these wiggles. So this up move we had, we had very similar up moves in the dollar as corrective moves back in 2017.

34:06And then it keeps moving lower. That moving lower is what is increasing global number two because it's in dollars. It's also increasing or lowering financial conditions or increasing on our charts, which means financial conditions are getting easier for people because of the dollar. Foreign nations can roll their debts. Corporations can roll their debts. That means everybody has more dollars to spend. More excess spending equals faster economic recovery, higher asset prices. So the dollar is in this beautiful cycle. The dollar should hit new lows again. And this little correction pattern is actually important because it plays into the M2 chart and the global liquidity chart, which in the end is what is the key driver of assets, which again, most people don't understand.

34:55They get caught out in some bullshit on Twitter. I've been trying to show you this stuff forever. Global M2. Global M2 is the real-time pricing approximation of total global liquidity. Total global liquidity is central banks included. This isn't, but we know that they're using the banking center. Global M2 is rising faster than 2017. 2017, those who were in the market then, it was a hell of a year for risk assets. I mean, Bitcoin from the low did a 23x that year. Now, Bitcoin won't, but something will. One of the large tokens will do something approximating that. So liquidity, gushing. dollar falling all of those things positive liquidity let's look at the greatest chart of all time that every fucker copies without i mean i love the fact that you guys are on twitter all day calling out everybody uses mine and julian's chart i remember putting this bloody chart together myself with julian saying we were shuffling around for everyone we're like oh my God, this is so good.

36:06It's the chart of M2 versus Bitcoin. This has been so tightly correlated, it's embarrassing. I keep saying maybe, maybe it was this easy all along. I've known it will be. I also know it will decouple later in the cycle, and it'll decouple to the upside with Bitcoin outperforming global M2. That's how it works when the crowd come in, the herd get FOMO, that get greed, it actually starts outperforming. Then when the market flips, it eventually starts to underperform as fear kicks in. But at this point, it's really driven by liquidity. It gave us a three-month heads-up to exactly the correction. And yet, Twitter said it's about tariffs, it's about the end of the world.

36:54It told you. It is telling you and told you it would be all-time highs. I told you it would be at all-time highs by May. It tells you we should be over 140 ,000 by July. And you don't want to believe it. And then it will break down once you all do believe it. And it'll start outperforming, I think. But just generally, as a rule of thumb, it will work because it explains the asset moves. And I'll come on to that in a sec. So please just pay attention. And listen, do me a favor. Julian and I work really hard to share as much information as possible. If you see people using these charts, my charts, just call them out and say, hey, tag Rowell and Julian.

37:35It just makes me feel good because we do a lot of work. A lot of it comes from GMI, which is a very expensive research publication I've been writing for 20 years. And then it goes to Real Vision. In Real Vision Pro, people pay a lot of money for that service. And eventually down and also the macro investment tool, and eventually down the line, we put it out for free to help people. And to do this stuff that we did for free, like this chart, A, I appreciate it if you would just say it was our work, but really I'd appreciate just joining Real Vision. It's really there to help you. There is so much for you that if you don't join it, just the free site to start with, if you don't come and ask me questions there, i can't really help you i'm doing the best that i can but it's not me alone right it's not all about me it's about julian it's about andreas it's about jamie coots it's about all the guests we bring on it's about the community having the conversation sharing their trade ideas i can't do it alone for you watching on x with your short attention span oh ral said this he's amazing oh he's an idiot now because it went down three days you've got to do this properly and real vision was set up i built it in 2014 for all of this to unfuck everybody's future so just do me that favor go to realvision.com um.com forward slash join i'll wait for you for a second you can ask me questions there later but i'm going to keep pushing you to do it because i still notice that only maybe two or three thousand people every time i do one of these live streams does it and generally speaking quarter of a million people are watching the live stream so um it's it's not fair on me.

39:13It's not fair on Julian. It's not fair on Real Vision. We are trying to help and we really want to give you the best chance. So I'll wait for you. A little intermission. I'll enjoy some nicotine, a little snack and wine. realvision.com forward slash join.

39:33I've still not managed to get rid of my nicotine addiction. but hey that's crypto it reminds me of that that part from um from airplane this is not the day to give up sniffing glue um it's very difficult to give up nicotine unless you never started in the first place okay by the way that global n2 chart just to give myself a pat on the back because nobody else does i just get attacked on twitter all the day people claiming I'm shilling something it's just it's just an awful cesspool of the place but thank you all of you who actually write to me and say thank you you help me or whatever I really appreciate it we got the load to the day check it go back the load to the day based on technicals and based on this chart anyway I won't always be perfect I am not trying to pretend I'm a deity in any way shape or form but but I can educate you about food and wine and how to civilize yourselves, which to me is actually more important.

40:39If I can make you rich and buy good wine and then eventually buy good NFTs, I'm doing a good job. Okay, total global liquidity, new all-time highs. It broke out, keeps doing this wedging pattern. That breakout always works. Why does it matter? Total global liquidity is 90 % of the price move of Bitcoin since 2013. 90%. So all you fuckers using other stuff, it's like this and that, and none of it is true. It is liquidity dominant. And then it's network adoption effects, which is the excess returns. So if global debasement is 8 % a year by total global liquidity, that's how much it rises every year.

41:20That's how much they're debasing global currency, global fiat. The excess performance is network adoption, which is about 100 and something percent a year on top with Bitcoin. When it comes to NASDAQ, well, it's 95%, and it varies between 95 % and 97 % correlation. The excess return is the adoption of the new technology. So in the adoption of the new technology in NASDAQ, which does about 18 % a year versus Bitcoin that does about 150 % a year since 2013, tells you that the supermassive black hole is to own crypto. I know many of you in the stock market can't get your heads around it. many people in the stock market can't get your heads around the nasdaq being so high it's all driven by debasement it's what matters the most okay business cycle the other big driver we are so far behind today but i want to give you some pure alpha here that's my job and i enjoy spending time with you guys having a drink so cheers i feel like keith floyd those of you who are english remember keith floyd that's what i feel like right now okay business cycle the dollar being in the range for a period of time kept the ism um subdued the ism the institute supply manager survey is the best guide to the business cycle the business cycle above 50 is growing below 50 is stagnant below 45 is below 47 46 is recession So we've been crawling along.

42:48And those of you who run businesses in Main Street, you own a store or you deal with ordinary people and ordinary things, manufacturing industry, stuff like that, you know that business hasn't really picked up yet. For all of us who have earnings, you kind of know that earnings haven't really picked up yet. But tech companies and stuff have because they've got a technological revolution going on. They're attracting capital. But generally, the rest of us don't. And so it's been a bit weird where the markets have gone higher due to liquidity and earnings haven't. That's typical. That's why P ratios go out because of debasement.

43:27The rich get richer, the poor don't. But eventually, the dollar is one of the markers of this, one of the key drivers. The other is rates. They've always been sideways. Now the dollar is weakening. It sets yourself up for the business cycle to weaken. The dollar is not always the key driver of the business cycle, but it's one of the key drivers of the turning points. Bitcoin has been priced on ISM. So implied Bitcoin pricing and ISM. So Bitcoin is priced for a weak business cycle right now. But guess what, children? Our financial conditions index, which is the dollar, rates, and oil, screaming higher.

44:05Screaming higher, and it leads ISM by nine months. And that tells us ISM should go up a lot. So that means you guys are all going to start earning a bit more money. Your businesses are going to do a bit better. You'll feel a bit better. I think rates will lower a bit somewhat as well. And overall, the global economy will get better. There'll be more demand for risk assets. This is what drives alt season. As this all picks up, this is the dominant driver of the whole thing. It's also the same driver of Rolex watches and NFT prices, art itself, also driven by the business cycle. That all lies ahead.

44:43I know it doesn't feel like that now, but that's what's coming. You say we can never have an alt season again. You can't have an alt season really with the ISM below 50. Once it goes through 50 on the upside, you get alt season. Why? Because people have disposable income. and they end up investing further out the risk curve. Happens in small cap equities, happens in emerging market equities, happens in all sorts of things. It's the same risk curve. It's all to come. So just have patience with this. I think it's started, and we will see a dramatic shift in what's happening, particularly after the tariffs get agreed, and what we find is people stop freaking out about the, oh, my God, they're putting a gazillion percent on China, and China's going to put a gazillion percent squared on the US, and we're all going to die.

45:25No, that's true. It's just negotiation. They'll get somewhere sensible. Chinese will end up buying treasuries. They'll stimulate their economy. They will help stimulate the global economy. And others will do the same. It is all fine. It's all working according to plan. And those of you who think it's not, Bitcoin hit an all-time high today. So of course it's going to plan. But your alts aren't yet. And so therefore, you are miserable. And that's because you've made the wrong selection so far. Some of them have done really well, and we'll come onto some of the charts in a bit. But generally speaking, the space looks amazing right now.

46:02But you're still in the excess fear zone. People utterly freaked out over the Trump tariffs. So NASDAQ percentage of stocks trading with an RSI lower than 14 hit levels from the Lehman Brothers crisis, the Russian default trade, the COVID thing, right? People freaked out because the newspapers exacerbated it because they don't like Trump. And so they did that. I'm not a political person in this. I'm a pragmatist. I observe and try and make decisions without being driven by the emotions of what newspapers are trying to tell you. But everybody got caught up in that. But now the markets have turned.

46:45The Investor Intelligence Survey, percentage bullish, is still ultra low. professional investors and hedge funds were still massively underweight going into this week. So we've got the fuel and the kindling. It was the retail investors, and God bless you all, because you guys have been more right than the professionals, which is my base case. The hive mind massively outperforms the professional investors. The hive mind nailed it. They bought the lows in size. Professional investors, left by the sidelines. That movement is only going to continue. It's what we do at Real Vision. We're going to massively lean into this once we launch our new platform iteration, which is a huge change and is going to be mind-blowing.

47:34That comes sort of end of June-ish. That is going to really lean on the fact that you guys collectively are the smartest people in the world, not the hedge fund managers. They've underperformed you all of the way. So you guys be you. Individually, yeah, we make some mistakes. If I can get you all to make less mistakes, between the fact that how smart you are, you will actually get together, learn, collude together, form cabals together. And before you know it, we're going to produce amazing return. Now cabals, I'm talking about just communities as opposed to people in the know. okay so freak out time this looks very much like the an amazing time in my career which was i was at goldman and it was the uh asian crisis and i was running the hedge fund sales desk i was understaffed and it was the most incredible time um because everything was imploding the banks were imploding every hedge fund was on the trade it was a very exciting time we started to learn about other words, deflation, debt deflation, stuff like that, that rolled into global markets later.

48:43But that, I remember how bad it felt. It really was the end of the world scenario. And what we've done is exactly copy that. Amazing. And I think the outcome is the same. Now, whether we go into, I don't think that the 1999-2000 analogy is right. I do think we have a massive blow off top bubble cycle. I think that's 29, 30, something like that. And then as the world changes with the economic singularity, I think it becomes much more difficult. And maybe there's more downside for markets if they stop debasing currency. But we'll see. Let's not worry about that. Don't read into the chart. Oh, my God, it's 1999.

49:25The world's going to end. The world didn't end then either. done. But the point being, it should be one way street from here. Do you remember when you were all freaking out in the NASDAQ? Julian Brigden, I remember who used to be with ProMacro, was like, oh my God, it's all going to shit. These companies, these tech companies, all these people, tech companies are worthless. It's all going to go to tariffs and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And we came on and said, just follow GlobalM2. What you've got is an excess fear gap. people have overly panicked guess what it's caught up with global m2 beautiful thank you i i was worried this chart wouldn't work and it worked like a peach um and we managed to buy the lows in that stuff for real vision pro technicals okay so these were this morning julian sent them to me because i was too busy i don't know having a manicure and a pedicure or whatever um and um so julian sent me the charts before we hit the 110 or whatever we hit in bitcoin but basically wedge pattern breakout, new all-time highs.

50:26You've seen it in the M2 chart. Great. The other one, Ethereum. This is a beautiful chart. I see the mid-curve bullshit on Twitter about Ethereum. It's all over and blah, blah, blah. It's not. You don't get it. The financial system will build on ETH. It is the Microsoft operating system of the financial world in blockchain. And they'll build layer twos. It'll work out fine. They build excess capacity. And alt season doesn't start until the ISM crosses 50. We're starting to see the base in the ETH. Bitcoin cross. I've also said Bitcoin dominance peaked. I think it continues to peak and it falls sharply.

51:06And that is what we're going to see here. And once ETH breaks 3 ,600, it will accelerate very fast. My ETH bet, I don't own ETH outright. I own it by NFTs, which gives me leverage. I'll talk about NFTs in a bit. I might do it when we get to the Real Vision platform to add some alpha there, because I'm running out of time. We're 50 minutes in, and I'm still... Actually, I'm not that bad, right? Normally, I've done two-thirds of the bottle. I've been talking so much that I need to drink faster. I'm still loving that cheese, by the way. Those crackers are really good. They're almost as good as Spanish crackers.

51:41If you take the fucking honey out, Americans, You don't need sugar and everything. Obviously, you don't need to die with diabetes. I know it's kind of fun because all your friends are doing it. But, you know, it's not that necessary. Okay. Solana, US dollar. Beautiful chum. Just a beautiful chum. I would expect it to form a cup and handle, accelerate higher. Solana's been such a great asset to own. It's kind of felt like it's underperforming a bit right now. but zoom back. What a great asset. They've done a stunning job. But Sui, on the weekly chart, massively outperforms Solana. And we're just forming this little pennant here.

52:23We're going to break higher again versus Solana. Why is that? And again, I'm not interested in your utter bullshit about, oh my God, he gets shilled. He gets paid to shill Sui. I've told you, I'm on the foundation. Yeah, I've got tokens. They're all locked up. But I've switched all my capital into it. Why? Because of this chart. it's as simple as that this chart is outperforming looks like a loud perform again i want to own the fastest horse i also see this stuff on twitter as like well he flip-flops you know he was in before and then then he was in in solana and then he was in suey no shit shuttle that is my job asset allocation my job is trying to make myself as much money as possible before 2030 to unfuck my future and if i can bring a bunch of you on with me on the caveat that i will not always get it right.

53:10You guys understand that, right? You're going to understand when I get it wrong. And you're like, I really want to call Raoul a moron. But generally speaking, he really did try and help me. And again, I talk about this every time because online people are dicks. And I spend a lot of time trying to do this for everybody to really, really, really try and help as many people as possible. So try to avoid being a dick online. It doesn't help me. It doesn't help you. It just makes you bitter and miserable, and you're probably drinking Sutter Home or Buzz Balls, or whatever it's called, or maybe you don't deserve any better than that.

53:49Okay, next. Sui US dollar. Beautiful. Inverse head and shoulders. Went back, tested it. This thing's going to accelerate to new highs. I'm pretty happy with it. Deep book, the liquidity layer of Sui. We've talked about this a lot. It's been one of our great trade recommendations. We've nailed this one. Lovely flag pattern. We'll break higher. Off we go. Keep going. Walrus, another SUI project because SUI is the hot ecosystem. Walrus looking good as well. What else have we got? Julian's got this. I don't have this. Julian's a fucking degen. So he's like, stick lo-fi in. Lo-fi is a mean token on SUI.

54:28I don't own it. So I don't know why he's doing it. He's just shilling his own bag. So just tell him that when he's on Twitter. Lo-fi versus SUI. Looks like it broke out. Again, I don't really care, but Julian does, so I'll pretend it's helping him. Doge, I do care about Doge, actually, and a bag of Doge. Doge is beautiful. These wedges, inverse head and shoulders, outperforming. But what is the best thing about Doge is on the weekly charts, the stair step, higher, higher, higher. It's going to do it again. What's going to happen is retail is going to come in. Bitcoin's at all-time highs. They're going to go to CoinMarketCap, look down and go, oh, my God, XRP and Doge are so cheap.

55:07I need to buy these instead because it's$100 ,000 to buy one Bitcoin. We know the game. This is not how the world works, but this is how people think when they come into the space. I've done it, too. You've all done it. It's OK. Forgive them. We will help educate them as they come. So welcome to the space. We appreciate you. And we will try and help you make money. But even by owning Dogecoin, I'm sure you'll make a shit ton of money. I also think the funniest chart in the entire world is Dogecoin versus Bitcoin. I may be dead wrong, but I just have a feeling the funniest outcome is that we come up, break, and before you know it, Doge has outperformed Bitcoin since inception.

55:52And that would make Doge the hardest currency in the world. And that will upset many, many people. But it will make me laugh heartily. Not that I've got anything against Bitcoin. obviously um i just it's just humorous right it's humorous and it's good for the holders of doge xrp another amazing chart pattern we highlighted this when it broke i had a few huge explosion it's been doing this nice flag pattern whether it pulls back and tests or just shoots from here but um xrp is going up i mean it's going up but i don't know how high it's going to go but it is definitely going up bananas and when banana when banana right okay let's stop again shop.realvision.com that is this shop.realvision.com that's where you buy banana zone merch if you fuckers don't buy enough of it it's never going to happen well it's already happening because many of you bought it but I think it's about time you bought your merch there's actually some really cool don't fuck this up merch too because that's pretty important so you can either don't fuck this up or banana zone one is defensive one is positive you choose you you do you i'll do me i'm going with the banana zone i got my three banana stripes that makes me like super senior in the bananas in the banana world enough that i can call the president on the banana phone that's how important i am it's my three stripes um okay finally banana zone last three bitcoin rsi oversolds i we just have that correction number go up, right?

57:28It's like, I don't know how many charts we need of this. This is the chart. I keep reiterating, you utter morons. Not you guys personally, but that guy you've just seen on Twitter, them. They just don't understand this chart. Where's the banana zone? Well, it's like it's in the middle of the goddamn banana zone. It's been happening. Bitcoin's up 100 % since we called the start of the banana zone. It then had a nice correction. It's now at all-time highs. So the banana zone is paying out perfectly. Correction phase one, the first move. We've had the first move. That was the last quarter in 2024.

58:05We then have the correction phase, the correction phase, the correction phase. Then we go into the banana zone next phase, phase two, before we have the correction phase. The correction phase will be, let's go back, just pull everything together so you guys understand fully. the correction phase is this, which is when Global M2 traded sideways because of the dollar correction. It's telling me that July, August might be, not July, maybe August is a sideways move. And whether you want to take some lifestyle chips off the table, I know I've got questions on the platform. I'm already at half an hour over where I'm supposed to be.

58:46I will answer questions on Real Vision, not here on YouTube, not on X, not on Spotify, only on Real Vision. www.com forward slash join and talk about a bit about this. Cause I know a lot of you are freaked out. Is this the end of it? Do I do what do I do? Oh my God. But no, nothing, nothing. It's just a Markle point. The Markle point. Let's go back to this chart to reiterate to you. Is this bit the correction phase two, I will guarantee a correction phase two. I'll be overwhelmed by people losing their shit. It's peaked. I've told you it's peaked. It's all over. It's never going up again. We didn't get the full banana zone.

59:22Oh my God, this is a stunted cycle, diminishing returns. It's terrible. Again, it'll all be wrong. Honestly, I don't see any reason why anything is going to change this cycle. I can be wrong, but I don't think I'm going to be because I put in the work. I put in a huge amount of work to help you all. And Julian puts in a huge amount of work in macro investing tool in Real Vision Plus, or Real Vision Alpha, as it's now called, and in ProMacro and GMI. So I'm plugging my services so you will actually pay for some proper research as opposed to me drunkenly going through a few charts on the internet while eating cheese with a full mouth.

1:00:03It's not the most elegant way for you to learn, so maybe do the right thing. That cheese is epic. Okay, Julian's last slide, thanks. That's Julian thanking you. I'm not thanking you. I've had to entertain you with wine and food. I had to eat that bloody Chick-fil-A and drink that, what was that god-awful thing? Sunjoy. Shockingly bad. And let's never forget. For my friend, die with the most likes. Sutter Home Pocket Wine. And for Blondie too, this is for you. Okay, stop sharing. Next. I'm already fucked up on social media. Next, you're going across to the platform. I'm going to talk a little bit about NFTs.

1:00:52And I'm also going to... No, in fact, before we go, before we go, I want to show you guys something. Because most of you don't realize this.

1:01:02So, okay. I'm going to share the Real Vision platform. Because I'm going to show how not full of bullshit I am. Because I'm going to ask myself the question about bonds. because I think it's important, A, that you know how to use some of this stuff that's on Real Vision. So if you're on Real Vision, you click the really handsome person. It's called the Rowlbot, but incredibly handsome, wise person. You click the Rowlbot, and what you've got is the ability to talk to me. It's trained on all of my content. I train on 100 books. I train on my X feed. It's trained on every YouTube video. This is just a free version.

1:01:47Well, free content version. I will eventually chain it on GMI, creating charts and all sorts of stuff. But I want to ask it about Bonds right now because I just want to check what Raoul thinks. Okay. So I'm going to move my mic a bit closer so you can hear Raoul because he's very smart because he's me. He's also incredibly handsome. Hey there. I'm Raoul Pal. How can I help? Hey, listen, Raoul. I'd love to ask you about your thoughts on the bond market. Yields have been screaming higher recently, but inflation's been falling. It feels that maybe there's not enough liquidity in the bond market. And I can't help but look at this and think, you know, the only way out is for them to do something like yield curve control or inject some liquidity via the SLR, whatever.

1:02:37What do you think about bonds right now?

1:02:42look you're absolutely right to point out the disconnect here bond yields are screaming higher but inflation is clearly on the way down and that's a classic sign of a liquidity issue in the system i mean the bond market is essentially telling us that there's just not enough cash sloshing around to absorb all the issuance and when you combine that with the federal reserve's quantitative tightening and the draining of the reverse repo facility it's no wonder liquidity is drying up. This is a structural issue, not just a cyclical one. Now, here's the thing. The Fed is in a bit of a bind. They've been trying to tighten financial conditions to bring inflation under control.

1:03:18But the lagged effects of their actions are now starting to bite. Inflation is falling, as you said. But the bond market is signaling that the system is under strain. And when you see yields at these levels, particularly on the long end, it's a clear sign that the market is pricing in a higher risk premium due to this lack of liquidity. So what happens next? Well, I think you're onto something with yield curve control or some form of liquidity injection. Fed has shown time and again that they'll step in when the system is at risk of breaking, whether it's through tweaking the supplementary leverage ratio, restarting asset purchases, or some other mechanism, they'll find a way to get liquidity back into the system.

1:04:01They have to. Otherwise, the risk of a broader financial accident increases dramatically. The key thing to watch here is how quickly they respond. If they wait too long, the damage to the economy could be significant. But if they act preemptively, it could set the stage for a powerful rally in bonds. And let's not forget, as inflation continues to fall, the real yield on bonds becomes increasingly attractive. That's going to draw in buyers eventually, but the timing is tricky. So net-net, I think bonds are setting up for a massive opportunity. The higher yields go, the more attractive they become, especially if you believe, as I do, that the Fed will have to pivot sooner rather than later.

1:04:43But in the meantime, we're in for a bumpy ride. What's your take on how quickly the Fed might act here? So look, without boring everybody, I think you're dead right, and that the outcome is more liquidity, which drives asset prices higher.

1:05:00exactly you've nailed it more liquidity is the inevitable outcome here and that's the key driver for asset prices i mean think about it every time the system gets stressed the central banks have to step in they've essentially removed the left tail of risk right they're not going to let the bond market implode because the knock-on effects would be catastrophic so what do they do they inject liquidity whether it's through yield curve control tweaking the supplementary leverage ratio or some other mechanism. And when that liquidity comes in, it flows into assets, bonds, equities, crypto, you name it.

1:05:35Can I interrupt quickly? I just want to ask you a question because I've got to go. But I want to ask you what you think of Schramsberg, the brute rose from Napa Valley.

1:05:49Schramsberg brute rose. Now that's a fantastic choice. Schramsberg is one of those iconic Napa Valley producers that really knows how to deliver elegance and complexity in sparkling wine. Their Brute Rose, in particular, has this beautiful balance of bright red fruit. Think strawberries and raspberries, combined with a subtle creaminess and a touch of toastiness from the leaves aging. It's vibrant, refreshing, and yet sophisticated enough to hold its own at a dinner party or just on its own. Honestly, it's one of those wines that feel celebratory the moment but you pop the cork. Are you planning to pair it with anything specific?

1:06:24Yeah. Or just enjoying it as is? No, I'm pairing it with Bitcoin at all time highs. Thank you, Raoul. I'm going to make a move now.

1:06:34Well, that's the perfect pairing, isn't it? Schramsberg, Brute Rose, and Bitcoin at all. Time highs. Pure celebration. Enjoy it, my friend. Cheers to you and the markets. That's fucking great, right?

1:06:49It's underutilized. It is so damn good. You just answer the right questions, and you've got me at the end of the line. Eventually, it'll be a video version of me. So anyway, right, let's go to the Real Vision platform, realvision.com, or just click the stupid, weird QR code thing. I don't know how you do it when you're on your phone, whatever. You know that. You're younger than me. Realvision.com forward slash join. Realvision.com forward slash join. You can ask me questions over there. We can talk about all sorts of cool stuff. how I can make you tons of money, all of that kind of stuff. But if you don't go over there, then ain't going to happen.

1:07:29This is really going very long for a session. But, you know, I'm enjoying my wine. I'm enjoying my cheese, enjoying your company. Thank you for joining me. Thank you for bringing a drink. Those of you drinking water, I appreciate you joining me as well and hearing my rant. Sorry, I've been my microphone a bit closer. And also those of you who are in Australia and New Zealand drinking beer in your coffee cups because that's how you pretend to your wives that you're not actually alcoholics, but you are basically two nations of functioning alcoholics. And I appreciate you. If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership.

1:08:14Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.

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