Drinks with Raoul: June 25, 2026

0:00RAOUL PAL.

0:09Raoul Pal:Well, welcome to the I don't know what the fuck I'm doing show. I'm on my own here. My beautiful blonde accompanist, Blondie, has left me standing. So I'm on my own coping while she's in Florida. And I am now out of control. So we've got wine. We've got nicotine. And we've got shitty fucking markets. So welcome to this world. Oh, it's also hot as balls here in Little Cayman. It just gets more and more humid. The mosquitoes are coming. And it's unbearable. So the only way to pass your time is actually get drunk, look at charts, talk shit, maybe insult some people. I find it works for me. Hopefully it works for you.

0:52Raoul Pal:So anyway, cheers. Happy Thursday. So what are we going to talk about today? I think...

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2:03Raoul Pal:Firstly, we need to talk about food and wine because culture is everything, even in a market that's fucking imploding every single day of our lives, which makes us all feel so special, right? So what I've got today is, today is a champagne day. Why? Because it's four o 'clock in the afternoon. It's hot as balls here. So I'm not drinking a, you know, Sassakaya or something. I'm going to drink something fresh and light. And champagne is my go-to drink because I live in the tropics and I just like champagne. And it doesn't do me damage. I'm an old fucker now. And it starts to give me, red wine gives me migraines.

2:38Raoul Pal:Anything over like 12 and a half, 13 % gives me migraines now. So even though I collect red wine, I've got tons of the stuff hundreds and hundreds of bottles. I barely drink it, which is kind of ridiculous. And then all of the white wine and champagne that I have, I drink excessively probably. So what have we got today? We have 3210, a champagne by Philip Gonnette, extra brute. So it's super bone dry, which I really like. I'm becoming less and less enamored by anything sweet. And I really like kind of clean, fresh, dry, which is why I'm in my Albarino phase in white wine as well. Even though Albarino is not expensive, you can get really good Albarino for like 30 bucks.

3:23Raoul Pal:It's lower alcohol. You drink it like water. It's fresh, it's salty, it's clean, as is a Brut Champagne. So Brut Champagne or extra Brut is when they finish it off, you can have Brut Natural, which is where there's no sugar added at the final moment. I can't remember the bloody name, whatever that process is called. With extra brute, it just keeps it super dry. So brute means dry, super dry. So it's clean and fresh. It works on a hot summer's day. If you're in Australia, tough shit, but it's breakfast for you. So champagne works perfectly for breakfast for me. Just don't put orange juice in it.

4:00Raoul Pal:Not in good champagne like this. So cheers. And then in order not to be a fucking philistine, which you guys immensely struggle with. You have awful taste in music, terrible taste in clothes. Your fashion sense is basically awful. Your interior design needs a lot to be lived up to. It's pretty crappy. And your food is like child's palates. So what we're trying to do is educate you on how you have an aperitivo. We've got a nice chip bowl here, but this is from Morocco. It tells stories. It tells stories from Morocco. And here we have the famous toasted pumpkin seeds in a little drizzle of olive oil, toasted myself in the oven, and added with mold and salt on this one.

4:54Raoul Pal:And it's so good because it's crunchy, super healthy. All of the omega-3s and the fibers and all of the things in it, the magnesium, zinc, all of these things, fantastic snack, really good. The other one is Himalayan sea salt lentils. So again, roasted lentils, a bit of Himalayan salt. Why do you want the salt? So the salt makes your taste buds salivate. And that means that you're ready for both your drink, and when you've got it slightly dry as well, you get this whole light, dry saltiness of a fresh sea air. And it also prepares you for dinner. Now, it's 4 o 'clock in the afternoon, so I'm going to be shit-faced by the time I have dinner, because we've got a long session.

5:45We've got lots of questions to get through on the Real Vision platform, and some really

5:49Raoul Pal:bloody good questions. So we put up a prize of$1 ,000 in USDC for questions. And the best question is the question I'm going to answer. So that's coming up. If you do want to ask questions and you haven't joined Real Vision yet, it's free to join. Just go to realvision.com forward slash join. You will win. No, you will win. You will be part of the prize winning because I'm going to give out maybe another grand or two grand just for people who joined today. because if you haven't joined Real Vision, it's like a really good friend of mine, Jules, amazing artist, really one of the best artists and one of the loveliest human beings.

6:26Raoul Pal:He's like, oh, fuck, I just checked out Real Vision. It's amazing. People think it's like this video platform of me. Then they go there and they're like, holy shit, there's a whole community of people here posting trade ideas, writing research notes. There's all of the experts on the platform. There's the AI tools. There's all of this stuff. Nobody knows it's there. Well, except the tens of thousands of Yahoo members. But still, it's an extraordinary place to find alpha on investing, the best ideas from the best community, the smartest people, and the intelligence of that huge community too. So it is really, really worth joining.

7:04Raoul Pal:I can't express this enough. We'll talk a bit about that in a bit. But more importantly, it's like Little Cayman is quite special at this time of year because half of you have gone because it's hot as balls elsewhere as well. So nobody bothers to come here. So it starts quieting down. And then after August, you get into hurricane season and they shut down most hotels here. And now I'm only in Little Cayman once a month, twice a month. And then for some periods, I come here for a whole month because I absolutely love it. We've got some, well, Blondie in fact has chickens she's been feeding. So we've got these baby chickens that are now grown up and now come up to the doorstep of the house.

7:45Raoul Pal:And the house is very elevated, so in case of hurricanes and flooding. So it's on stilts. And the chickens now come up to be fed. And she managed to get a baby iguana. So the iguanas here are like big fucking sister islands rock iguanas. They're indebite to these islands. You don't get them anywhere else. And the major concentration is here in Little Cayman. And they're huge fucking things, like Komodo dragons. and so she had a baby one so big in the house to feed it it came up the stairs because it followed the chickens because they seem to talk to each other and explain where the free food is followed by a curly tail lizard and the other thing that she does which is very sweet is she has a colony of hermit crabs when she's here so there's a bunch of hermit crabs we just all of our scrap food goes to the hermit crabs.

8:36Raoul Pal:So you don't need to compost it, do anything. The hermit crabs eat it all. But they all come in their different shells and their different sizes. And she paints the shells because hermit crabs change shells. And then she goes on the beach for a walk and gets different shells, paints them, and then leaves them out, put some food out. And before you know it, all the crabs are swapping houses. So it's like this house exchange going on whilst they're getting fed. It's just a really cool thing. And I thought, maybe Blondie's just a bit weird. And then we were speaking to a friend of mine who has been on this island for 20 years.

9:09Raoul Pal:He's like, oh, I've got like a colony of 100 crabs or so. I feed them all of my food and I give them shells. I found the best shell place. So yeah, we get weird on this island, but nature is everything in a world of AI, a world of markets moving 24 seven, seven days a week. It's really nice to just be able to connect with nature and go for a walk and see the bigger picture. And the bigger picture is really what this is all about. It's how I try and approach everything. And I know, again, I keep saying how painful it is for all of us in crypto. I mean, I'm fucking still heavily loading crypto. Yes, we've got a lot of tech, and that's amazing.

9:50Raoul Pal:But crypto is the bet that is not the gift that keeps on giving. It was, and it's not right now. and we'll come on to markets and stuff in a second. I'll hopefully give you some alpha. But I know how tough it is. It makes us all feel like shit. We're all feeling poor. But over time, I really strongly believe it plays out. And I strongly believe in my thesis that the layer ones are still the place to be. I still strongly believe in Ethereum, Solana, Sui, for those of you in crypto. So just stick with the program. I'll come on to that in a bit. But summer, summer's the time to go to Europe. You see, those of us lucky enough to be able to earn our money in the Western Hemisphere, where the United States is the king of earning money and opportunity, the king of spending money of quality of life is Europe.

10:46Raoul Pal:Most of us try and head to Europe for at some point in the summer. I'm going to be heading there sometime in July and spend a month in Europe. And I'm so looking forward to not eating fucking awful food, to be honest. What do you get in the US? I mean, yes, you can get everything on Amazon delivered to your house. And then there's like 78 ,000 steak restaurants, fine dining steak restaurants. And they're all basically shit. Go to Galicia in northern Spain and have steak. And it's like a religious experience. In the US, it's a corn-fed experience, which is one most of the US leaves over the summer and goes to Europe.

11:28I actually think about this a lot, about people say, well, Europe's just going to become a

11:32Raoul Pal:museum. In a world of technology, which is moving faster, this exponential age where everything's going exponential, I talk about nature a lot. But the other thing that grounds us is culture and our sense of history in place. And Europe actually does that really, really well. And I notice it every time I go back, even to London now, they really trade on these experiences. And these experiences are immensely valuable to us because they give us a sense of grounding. So it's really hard not to enjoy being in Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal in the summer and slowing down, enjoying amazing fresh food and people that just aren't driven in the same way.

12:16Raoul Pal:And I love that. I really love it. That's the reason half of England tips out over the summer and Northern Europe, the Dutch and the Germans. A, because they're fucking miserable countries, full of miserable people. Well, they're miserable until they get into the sun, and then they're delightful people. You just have to get out of that awful weather. Belgium, it's all the same. Danes, I mean, look at Andreas. He's always miserable. Just needs to get in the sun a bit more, but he's got that Scandinavian tan, so he just burns in seconds. But the summer's here. It's time to actually enjoy ourselves, relax a little bit, have a glass of champagne, spend time with friends, do all of that, and hopefully the fucking crypto markets recover because it's getting a little bit tiring.

13:05Raoul Pal:So before we go on to the alpha stage, Real Vision, we've talked about it a lot. I know you're on here thinking, oh, fucking hell, he's going to sell me something. And yes, I am. I'm going to sell you a 70 % discount. Well, it's between 50 % and 70%. We've got a big fucking sale, a generational sale going on on Real Vision. Why? Because we've got a K-shaped economy going on. We've got a bunch of people making a fortune in AI and technology. We've got a bunch of people living ordinary lives, trying to get ahead, and are still feeling fucked because your mortgage rates are up here, your credit card rates are up here, opportunity steps still not coming.

13:42Raoul Pal:I think it comes, but it's miserable. It's hard, and we've all got to get ahead. And then those of us who thought crypto was going to be our answer, we're sitting there with portfolios either underwater or not quite where they wanted to be. And so that's miserable too. And we get that. We get that people don't have all the money in the world, but we all still need to find the opportunity in all of this. We need to be able to make money. We need to unfuck our future. And that's what the whole Real Vision discount is about. So join for free or go to realvision.com forward slash pricing if you've been sitting on the fence for ages or you used to be a member and you thought, yeah, maybe I don't need to anymore.

14:22Raoul Pal:Come back and see the changes. Come back and see the platform. It's fucking incredible. There is nothing like it that exists. It'll change your life over time. Be part of the community. Be a proactive part. Give ideas. If you've got 20 ,000 people giving trade ideas and notes, you've got something that is incredibly valuable. It's not about me. let's instead see 20 ,000 people get it wrong, as I got it wrong in the last year. Well, I got some of it wrong. Crypto, badly. Technology, really right. But everyone remembers you for your shit calls. But go to realvision.com forward slash pricing. It's fucking stupid discounts.

15:00Raoul Pal:And we're doing it because it matters to me. It matters to everybody at Real Vision to give as many people the opportunity to participate in that economic future. and to understand why markets go up and down, where the opportunity is, how to do it. That's the important part. And I'll come into some of that in a sec, realvision.com forward slash pricing, or just come for free, forward slash free. I don't give a fuck. Just come across. And also, if you ask me a question and you're a brand new member, there's 1 ,000 bucks up to grab. And maybe I'll add another 1 ,000 in just because I'm feeling that way.

15:36Raoul Pal:Okay, I'm going to drink of wine, and then we're going to get into some alpha, I think.

15:45Raoul Pal:Okay. So I'll start sharing some screens, random stuff. So when we go to trading beer, okay. So here is the chart. I've got a log. I love log regression channels. They give me an idea of how overbought, how oversold things are in a secular trend. We know AI is in a secular trend, he says, now pausing for a vape. And it has been one of the great trades to own the semis. I'm just writing Global Macro Investor over this weekend and Real Vision Pro. And one of the things we've been doing is taking some money off some of these bets, took some money off Rocket Labs, took some money off semis. But when I look at this, semis are now 3.8 standard deviations overbought versus their log trend since 2008.

16:52Raoul Pal:So this is like la-la lands now in terms of overboughtness. Does it mean that they stop? Do they go down? they will definitely not be the leaders of the next phase. That's where I'm getting to on this. And so I start looking at these log channels. And then you get to the opposite end of the sphere. And we've got, actually, we haven't got the log channel on ETH here. But just ETH itself is, yeah, I love DeMarc indicators. Tom DeMarc, great friend of mine, best technical indicators I've ever use, the depth and nuance of what they have. And you can get it on TradingView. I don't know, it's like 250 bucks.

17:32Raoul Pal:It's nothing. For what you get, it's stupid. So you find the DMARC 913 on TradingView. But where we are is a monthly 8 and a monthly 12 in, this is Ethereum, but they're all the same. 9s and 13s are the full reversal pattern. So we're at the bottom of the wedge of this consolidation pattern. If you remember, gold did something very similar, and then it exploded out of the range. And then when we look at Cui, which I know a bunch of you are in as well, the log channel is we've already hit the nine count. We won't go to the 13 count. We are 1.8 standard deviations oversold. So I like this. I like this versus that.

18:21Raoul Pal:Let's have a look at gold out of interest.

18:25Raoul Pal:Let's see if I can find it via. Let's do it all.

18:36So gold really did overshoot.

18:40Raoul Pal:It overshot to, I don't know, three and a bit standard deviations overbought. So it kind of feels like semis did. But if you remember this whole period, there was a 14-year period of sideways or four or five years period of summer. This looks a lot like ETH now. That's how I think about things. Technology keeps moving. Those of you in Real Vision Pro and those of you lucky enough to be in GMI, which is separate to Real Vision, it's my institutional research service, I'm writing up about this great rotation, which I think is coming. I think there's a great rotation amongst a bunch of different areas.

19:21Raoul Pal:I definitely think there's some areas that are super undervalued. I think layer ones obviously are undervalued, particularly versus NASDAQ and particularly versus semis. OK, but let's change to something else now. So on Real Vision, I've built dashboards because now we're all fucking AI superpowers and we can do everything. So I can just build shit all day. And I'm the least technical person in the world. So what I've managed to build on Real Vision is one of the things is the GMI compounding machine. And this is really useful for you to understand how to invest in secular long-term trends. This is how I think of the world.

20:04Raoul Pal:I've made more money from long-term trends than anything else. I ignore the noise. And I was like, how the fuck can you ignore the noise? Can't you see that it's gone down this much? I don't care. Because my thesis is, and my framework is, is that these assets compound returns over time because of technology. because intelligence per unit of energy is the way the universe works, and it compounds into the things that produce it. Layer ones produce massive amounts of intelligence, the coordination layer of the internet, the agentic layer of the internet, the value layer of the internet. They're just undervalued because of liquidity.

20:40Raoul Pal:I'll come on to liquidity in a bit. So GMI compounding machine, very simply, that log regression channel we looked at before. So here it is again. Here's in Bitcoin. And you see these green dots. It's like, oh, my God, yeah, of course. If you were so lucky, you'd be able to buy the bottoms and sell the tops. Yeah, you can. It's pretty simple. What you do is you put in your initial investment. Let's say, let's make this more reasonable. Let's make it 25 grand. OK, so there's your big chunk of savings in. You're at 25 grand. And you're going to add another 25 grand. And so you're going to save furiously every time the market gets over 1.5 standard deviations oversold.

21:22Raoul Pal:And when it's overbought by two standard deviations, you're going to take some lifestyle chips. So this is what it looks like. You're sold in January 2018. And we took off 20 % of our Bitcoin. And then we bought back in the low. And then we bought again in the 2020 crash. And then we sold twice when it got to two standard videos which was overbought in 2021 and 2022. We bought back again, right at the low in 2022. And it's flashing that we should be buying now. This is why I get excited when I see lower prices. Everyone's like, you fucking scammer. Why did I lose money? I hate you. And I'm like, this is fantastic.

22:06Raoul Pal:All I need to do is keep saving money so I can invest. because it's almost impossible for me that crypto is now over, that it's never going to work. It's all a scam. It's all bullshit. You rob me of my money, you crypto scammers. It's like, are you fucking insane? It's the coordination layer for the internet. It's not about that stupid, shitty coin that you bought. It's about how do you organize the agents to make payments in a digital age, at the speed that they require, at the proof of identity that they require, at the privacy that they require, all of these things require crypto rails. Blockchain technology is a profoundly important technology, and AI and blockchain are married at the end.

22:57Raoul Pal:And people think, oh, are we just saying that now just to try and give crypto a bid? It's like, I don't care. Just wait and see. It's obvious. It's fucking obvious for any of you who use AI, any of you using agents, or anybody who's involved in crypto. These layer ones, the programmable smart contract layer, is incredibly important to all of what is to come. So I look at this. Has that trend changed? No. Is the opportunity there? Yes. It's flashing. And then we've got those DMARC9s. So I look at that, and I'm like, amazing, amazing. We're back to basically the same levels we've done like three or four times before, but now we're so oversold that the opportunity set means that the risk reward on an adjusted basis going forward is extremely high.

23:43Raoul Pal:Now, you can think about that and think, what's going to be higher in a year's time? NVIDIA in terms of percentage gains or Ethereum, Solana, SWE, Bitcoin? Bitcoin. It's very hard to argue that NVIDIA doubles from here, considering where we are in the compute cycle, where we are in the semi-cycle, where we are in the CapEx build-out cycle. But for here, for the applications layer of this, yeah, I can see that. Anyway, so I'm very interested in that. When we go to the QQQ version, so now we're talking about the NASDAQ. Again, this is all on Real Vision. It's all part of the tools that you get once you sign up as a member of Real Vision.