Drinks with Raoul Pal: Crypto Gains Are BACK and It's About to Change Everything

27:45I really have to stop vaping, but how can you when you're on fucking crypto?

27:52That snack is so good. I can't tell you. You need to make it at home. Make your own snack. Sorry, I'm disturbing you. Realvision.com forward slash join. I'm going to wait for you.

28:15No, you're still sitting there on X and not fucking doing it. Just open a browser, web browser. It takes you literally a minute. Yeah, you on X. I can see you just sitting there. I can't be bothered. you have no idea how much cool stuff is in there you saw those trade ideas i posted there's some fucking guy up 130x or something stupid i mean this unbelievable community content of everybody posting trade ideas everybody writing up their trade thesis all of this stuff it's super cool um and it's going to supercharge your future it's there solely to unfuck your future lord knows your future needs unfucking yes i'm looking at you you think you're unfucking trading shit coins and ai agents and you think you got it nailed you haven't come to real vision we'll help you right what's next um i have a bunch of i'll answer questions uh they were given in early because the real vision platform doesn't seem like it's having questions you can watch the video there, but the questions aren't working yet.

29:22But you never know. It might work shortly. Oh, the comments are loading. It's all going to happen on the platform too. So, well done, Chris Ainsley, who's in Cayman, fixing this as fast as he can. I appreciate you, my friend. I know it overwhelms when all these Dorito, Bud Light, swilling Philistines turn up on platform all at the same time, baying for my blood or a good time. Okay. What are we talking about next i'm looking at my list oh you know what pause a glass of wine drum roll time for alpha let's fucking do it time for the banana zone update the thing you want that's all you're here for the rest you don't care about well you don't mind drinking on your own watching a tv screen your wife or husband thinks you're weird.

30:14I get that. But really what you hear is for these charts. So let's share them away and start talking about what matters, how we're going to make some fucking money.

30:32Okay. Mickey boy, we're good.

30:36I think we're live with the chance. I'm going to have to full screen them.

30:45Oh, let me stop sharing. I'll just, let me do it again. Sorry. I am a moron. Most of you know that by now. Um, I'm an utter moron. Is that just, is that the whole thing or hold on, hold on. I can, I can, uh, I now can't shrink it. why does anybody put me in charge of anything i have no idea what i'm doing i can't yeah it won't even shrink the screen now

31:24okay sorry nick's speaking to me in the background you can't hear me or you can think i'm talking to myself because i'm insane which you know what it's probably not far from the truth right Let me get my keyboard, and we'll start whizzing through some charts. Let's start with the elephants in the room, because you guys are nervous fucking Nellies. Oh, my God. Everything is so scary. The crypto went down 5%. We're all going to die. I'm going to lose all my money. Didn't you show me this chart of Global M2 and Bitcoin? Doesn't it mean the Bitcoin's going to 70 ,000? calm the fuck down you all need to grow some cojones and you need to learn stoicism in a piece meditate do anything but stop bleating on twitter about your fears all day we did that anywhere else people will get really bored of us i get really bored of it so let me talk you through why you should stop your bleating Firstly, in 2017, we had a new president of the United States that shocked everybody getting voted in called Donald Trump.

32:40He came in on a ticket of tariffs and trade war and onshoring and tax cuts. And now we have a new president called Donald Trump, who is coming in in a few days' time on a ticket of tariffs, trade wars, tax cuts, and deregulation. Sounds kind of familiar, right? Well, remember the M2 collapse that we're seeing now? And oh my God, oh my God, my Bitcoin is going down to 70 ,000. Do I sell? Do I buy? What do I do? Help me, help me, help me. What does it mean for my shit coins? Okay. It all happened back then too. Global M2 sold off. That was because the dollar went up. So we had exactly the same repeating pattern, which Conor says that Global M2 should probably face around here.

33:41Again, don't expect perfection, but expect some repeat. Oh, the Nasdaq did something similar too. It would suggest the Nasdaq should be going up pretty sharply now. And lo and behold, today, the Nasdaq has a really strong day. Feels about right. old Trumpy boy is about to come in. But it's about the dollar. The dollar's been strong. That's what's been driving Global M2. And guess what? It was identical back then too. Now, this chart has been copied by every fucker on X because there are two ladies who did their own research. It started with us, as all these charts did. The M2 charts, all of them, was myself and Julian Patel, a global macro investor, and then Real Vision Pro macro.

34:24And then we spread it further with the world and they all get copied. But I guess it's flattering. What it's suggesting is Trump, Scott Besson speaks, I think tomorrow, he should start signaling along with Steve Mirren that the dollar is too strong and it needs to weaken. The dollar is being used as a weapon against China, Europe, Canada, and anybody else who has trade deals to do. They've all got weak currencies. It's a problem. The US also wants a weak dollar, but they know a strong dollar forces people to the table. But we also know they've already been negotiating. So what we're likely to see is talking the dollar lower from Scott Bessent.

35:07It is very important they do so because the US needs to increase its exports. Everybody needs the economic cycle to go, to increase. The Chinese, well, we need them to stimulate because without the Chinese, we don't have a global economy. We have a lopsided economy. And for them to buy US goods, their economy needs to be growing, but they need to stimulate. But if they stimulate with a dollar too strong, their currency peg breaks and they don't want to do that because then you get capital flight. So it's a very fine balancing act of geopolitics and economics and interconnectedness and this kind of global dollar system that they need the US to weaken the dollar.

35:45If the US weakens the dollar and injects liquidity into the euro dollar market, which is the offshore dollar market, the Chinese can access it and they can roll their dollar debts. They can start doing quantitative easing. They can start stimulating massively. The global economy can start recovering. They can start buying newest goods. Everybody is a winner. So the dollar will come lower. I've known Scott for a long time, and he understands the big picture. So I'm just going to have a... I'll try that's killer. So the dollar weakening is the next big thing. Oh, crypto. Here's Bitcoin following the same pattern, roughly.

36:342017 has been my base case for a while. Do not expect it to be identical. but you know and do not expect it to be going to wherever the scale says um i'm not looking for a million dollar bitcoin sure there's a probability but it's like five percent but directionally we should get this right and it should continue to rally into the end of the year into 2025 and maybe into early 26 we'll have to wait and see but this is what the pattern tells us, it's repeating the same pattern, Bitcoin should be up only from here. And this is the typical post-correction halving. So what we have is the start of the banana zone, which we talked about from about September, and that was when Bitcoin hit 50 ,000.

37:24The banana zone t-shirt, buy the merch. There's a load of shit. There's amazing Real Vision merch. And the banana zone is the coolest ones of all. And don't fuck this up because that's the other one. That's the important lesson you guys need to learn. So the first banana zone phase one, that was this period here as we come up from the sell-off from the halving. Then we have the correction from the banana zone phase one. Happens every time. Then what do we get? The banana singularity. That's the next bit, when everything just goes up, and it makes us all look like geniuses. Every stupid shitcoin we've ever bought goes up.

38:06Everything goes up. And we think we're gods, which we're obviously not. We're probably just morons trying to do our best. But luckily, crypto market, it trends up over time, so it kind of covers all sins. As long as you're not too far out of the shitcoin curve, you'll generally be fine over time, And particularly if you don't fuck this up and stick to the big ones, they generally do fine over time. So it can cover all of your sins, your terrible entry points, all your stupid mistakes. I think it'd be fine. So that's what I'm expecting next. We should be starting now. Let's talk about the dollar again.

38:45Dollar is a wrecking ball. A strong dollar lowers economic growth. The US Economic Surprises Index shows that it follows the dollar. The dollar has a two-month lead. The dollar's strong. The economy slows down. So we're expecting to see the US economy slowing down over the next coming two months, and sharply so. And bond yields have been going up. This is inverse of bond yields. That also brings down economic growth. So rising yields, a rising dollar leads to falling growth, which leads to rate cuts coming back to be priced in, which is liquidity is coming. Another way of liquidity is rate cuts.

39:37Rate cuts are not the best measure of liquidity by any stretch, but it just tells you that we're going to go through a change in expectations. The data is going to come in more dovish. The Fed will have more room to move. The markets will feel better for it. And that, so slightly bad data, not terrible data, not recession data, just weaker than expected data gives the Fed cover. Remember, the Fed have to roll their debts. And if they roll their debts at two higher rates, the rate it compounds and the debt gets out of control. What they need to do is roll their debts at the lowest interest rates possible.

40:24So they've been shoving on the short end of the curve so they can hope that they can get rates lower and then they can refinance the whole lot. That's been the game. It's the refinancing game, the everything code game that I first came up with in Global Macro Investor. That you're going to get for free, that one edition, because it's too expensive otherwise, if you sign up for Real Vision. Realvision.com forward slash join. Get the free Global Macro Investor, all 150 pages of it, 30 ,000 words, plus the exponentialist trial. Just remember that. Trying to give you free shit to help you, right? I'm really trying to do that.

41:04So you can help yourselves by actually signing up to Real Vision. Okay, where are we? Next chart, Fed rate cuts, dollars, rates, it's all the same thing. It's all going to reverse. That is my view. That's Julian's view. We think it's going to reverse. The other important thing is the business cycle. The business cycle is the framework for everything. It drives all of this. Now, the ISM survey, which is the Institute Supply Manager Survey, is the best guide to the business cycle, comes out monthly, has been below 50. 50 is considered sort of very low growth with below, let's say, 46 being recession.

41:44We flirted with recession many times. We never got there. But we've had a slow growth. Well, the economic growth has been relatively strong. And part of that has been pre-election stimulus effects. The other part has been the technology bifurcation. So technology, which has no debt, doesn't care about interest rates. In fact, all the cash earns more interest rates, just make more and more money. That's been exploding. Well, the services economy, the manufacturing economy, all of that has actually been very sluggish. So below 50, bad. Now, the new orders, which is a little more volatile, is starting to tick up.

42:20Suggests, you know what? We might all start earning a bit more money, i.e. our businesses earn a bit more money. Economic growth comes back in more meaningful ways for Main Street, for the average person who hasn't really felt like it's been boom time unless you're working in tech or you've been investing in crypto or the markets, I guess. But generally speaking, small cap stocks, all of that's driven by the earning cycle, which is driven by the ISM. It's really delicious. So financial conditions lead it all. Financial conditions suggest that But the ISM is going from 49.3 today to 55. 55 is not yet a full expansion.

43:02Look how far the ISM normally gets to. It kind of gets to 60. So that means that on a nine-month basis, the business cycle is going to be growing. Great. The economy is going to be booming, or at least doing a lot better. I think probably booming. And that matters for our crypto banks, because Bitcoin is actually correlated to the ISM. So here's our Bitcoin implied pricing. If we go up to an ISM of 60, we're kind of 300 plus thousand Bitcoin. And if we go higher, we get higher. So there is a, and I'm not going to give you all the free alpha here. That's for the Real Vision Pro Macro and GMI. But basically, number go up ISM equals number go up in Bitcoin.

43:58Hold on, chat.

44:03I get told off eating with my mouth open. But I should have to talk to you guys, otherwise you get bored. Okay, what's next? The big driver of the overall cycle and liquidity and all of it is this business cycle. Liquidity leads it. But Bitcoin is actually highly correlated. Basically, when you cross 50, those are the white lines, which is what we're about to do. Cross 50 on the upside. That's when the real banana zone starts. And then when ISM peaks, that's normally when Bitcoin peaks as well. So we are only at the bottom of the ISM cycle. We're nowhere near the top. So what it tells me is the probability is this cycle is going to go longer or later than certainly the last cycle.

45:02Because last cycle, remember, Bitcoin peaked in March, sorry, ISM peaked in March 2021 at a huge level of like 63, 64. We are nowhere near. We haven't started the cycle yet. So it's all to play for, which is why it's going to be longer and back-end loaded. And it may go into 2026, first quarter. Let's see how it plays out. But that's looking like it to me. And I've been adjusting these probabilities, as you know, over time. But I've always had a decent probability that it's back-end loaded. I also think it might be a bigger cycle than expected. No, I'm not going to give you price targets because you absolute wankers will then go on X and go, Raul got it wrong.

45:45Look at him. Look at him. Isn't he a wanker? It's just like I'm so tired of that. So I'm just not going to do it. So I'm lucky because you can't be nice. That's just why you can't have nice things. It's simple, really.

46:01okay ISM also a driver of the Bitcoin of alt season so ISM crosses 50 people have more money, alt season starts increasing as people start reinvesting their money so alt season is that small caps in regular equities same kind of thing okay where else are we try to find the next shot uh macro seasons doesn't really matter but that's all fine macro summer is where we are in the seasons just by the fucking dip part of the don't fuck this up philosophy is by the fucking dip we are nowhere near the top you've got nothing to fear except fear itself or i don't know what you fear i i don't get it i don't get it it's just normal stuff right market goes up market goes down You will get big drawdowns very quickly.

46:58You might shit your pants unless you've been around for a couple of cycles. That's fine. You can buy new underwear and it'll all be okay because the market over time will go up until the business cycle peaks, the liquidity cycle peaks, the financial conditions peak. We're just on the way up. So there's nothing to worry about. Okay. Next chart. NASDAQ. This recent correction has also meant dips are for buying. So NASDAQ, number of stocks, a percentage of stocks trading above their 50-day moving average collapsed to the buy zone. Incredible. Great opportunity by the NASDAQ. GMI cycle, Bitcoin cycle top finder, nowhere near.

47:39Nowhere near. Nowhere near. So just buy dips. Previous cycles, I don't think you probably can see all of these colors. We're the purple one. We think we're following the lighter purple one, and that seems to be playing out pretty well. So all good on that. You can see the little mini corrections after the first phase of the banana zone, had our mini correction. Next phase, look at these puppies. That's what we're coming to, the next phase of the banana zone, the banana singularity, also known as alt season. Right, let's run through some charts. My God, it's already 6 o 'clock. We started late, though, so hopefully you'll forgive me.

48:28Bitcoin, blah, blah, blah, wedge going higher. Solana, wedge, mini wedge. See, that's a wedge there. It's going higher. I mean, the next one will break 3 ,000 new all-time highs, 300 new all-time highs, et cetera. Next chart, Sui. I know a bunch of you in Sui. It's been an incredible performer. where every time the market does nothing, we'll just bounce a little bit, SWE explodes. It just stair steps every time. Bang, bang, bang, bang. Next big rally should be kind of over six. And then it'll consolidate again. And then at some point, it'll just go exponential. And then we'll get a large consolidation.

49:04And then we go into the latter part of the bull market where it goes stupid prices. And I think SWE will do stupid prices. The great beater on SWE is DeepBook. DeepBook is the liquidity layer for the SWE protocol. So all of the liquidity layer is embedded within this. So the more SWE gets used, the more liquidity is used, the more it accrues to DeepBook, and the faster it goes up. So it outperforms SWE. So I really like it as a beta play. I've been flagging this for a while. It works really well. I think it really, really, really does well. and versus SWE, which is really interesting, it could be forming some sort of wedge.

49:53Some sort of breakout versus SWE here means it's kind of SWE on steroids. So it's interesting. Own a smaller position in this than SWE, obviously, because it's much riskier. It's not the same thing. So remember, when you're trading the smaller stuff, do it with the 10 % or 20 % of your portfolio. the big stuff you can keep. Now, I know there's a question coming up later from one of the Royal Vision members is, in your don't fuck this up thesis, should SWE be in your larger portfolio bucket? I think now it's in the top 10 tokens or very close to it. It's okay to have more of it within your larger main holdings and not an ALTS holding.

50:35I thought this would be the case where it goes. So it's always been a kind of a middle tier for me, and now it's top tier for me, It's my largest overweight. And that's not just because I get given it because I'm on the board and the foundation, as you all know. It's actually because I swapped a huge ton of my Solana for it. So it's my biggest position from my kind of non-vested, from my vested foundation stuff. I don't even include that. I am more sweet than anything else. But I'm not saying that you should because it is an early stage, first cycle. I don't want you to fuck this up. I've been doing markets for 35 years.

51:14So, please just stick with Solana, Bitcoin, ETH, bit of SUI. Don't go super overweight, which is why I try not to tell you guys this one. XRP, what an amazing chart. What an amazing chart. Wedge, break, wedge, break, wedge, break, wedge, break, giant wedge, break. It's one of the greatest charts of all time. I mean, I mean, And when you look at the monthly chart, it's just, it's an absolute stunning. It's amazing. Where's it going to go? I really have no idea. So what's the next chart we've got? Oh, no, sorry, that was a mistake. The crypto dick butt just found itself into my deck. Now, obviously, it's not the trade recommendation.

52:02Crypto dick butts, they may be OG, but it was a mistake. Like, you know, this dick bite just kind of finds its way into stuff all the time, and I can't help it. I'm sorry.

52:15Dogecoin, just staggeringly good chart. It's wedging again. We're going to see explosive price action. And when you look at it, this is just one of the most amazing charts of all time. It is Dogecoin weekly. Wedge, explode, wedge, explode, wedge, explode. And normally, it does like stupid 20x, 10x, 45x, stupid number. I don't know where this is going.

52:44But with the current administration, the interest in crypto, the first page of CoinMarketCap, the two cheapest tokens are XRP and Doge. So people just go, well, Bitcoin,$100 ,000. Ethereum,$3 ,500. Oh, but I can buy Doge at$0.37. Of course it's going to go to$100 ,000. We've all done that, my friend. We've all done that. Anyway, Doge is going high and Elon is going to help it. But this is the greatest chart of all time in crypto. So this is the dirty, horrible, filthy truth. The Dogecoin has generally been the best performing cryptocurrency of all time. And I say that sort of half tongue in cheek.

53:37Since Dogecoin came out, it's outperformed Bitcoin by 500%, 5x. And if this breaks this wedge, then the Doge standard, Michael Saylor is going to be having to switch his Bitcoin holdings into Doge as Doge becomes the hardest currency ever existed. Now, I know this is ridiculous, but it's sort of not. I'm not saying it's the hardest currency and we should all buy it. But I'm telling you, there's something in these chart patterns that is telling us something much, much bigger than we are literally thinking about. It could fail, whatever. Let's just see. I'm just asking you to keep your mind and eyes open because this is something extraordinary.

54:24If you'd have said, because the general acknowledged thing is nothing beats Bitcoin over time. Well, obviously, since launch, Ethereum has and stuff like that. But this looks like it's imminently going to break in some explosion, break towards Mars and make new all-time highs versus Bitcoin again. And then it's been making all-time highs since 2013. Okay. So I find it very funny as well. The funniest thing tends to be the outcome. Smoking chicken fish. You know I'm into this chart. This, I think, is a – and I still love the meme. And I don't really care that the meme's been struggling because all memes have been struggling.

55:08I see the community. They're fresh. They're on it. They're doing it. And maybe it doesn't go anywhere. Yeah. but it's fun and the people are good. The community's nice. And that is a wick off, a reaccumulation pattern, I think. We'll see. If it breaks higher from here, it's a very good signal. If it breaks below these ones, it's not a very good signal. And again, because that guy, Fred Kruger or his name is, is like, well, Raoul's telling people they should go all in on things like smoking chicken fish. No, you should have some fun with that 10 % of your portfolio and spread it amongst a few of these where you can really enjoy it.

55:51Hold your crypto dick butts to your heart. Hold your smoking chicken fish. Listen to Lord Fishnu. Enjoy yourselves. Don't let any fucker like Fred Kruger tell you you can't enjoy yourself. No. We've got the rules. We know it's 90%, 80 % in the core holdings. You're not touching it. I know he'll be upset because it's not Bitcoin only, but I'm sorry. Our job is to make money. We want to outperform and we've outperformed. We outperformed by owning Solana. We've outperformed that by owning Sui. And you guys have been along for the ride. So just follow the plan. The plan will be fine. And maybe Lord Fishnu will bless us.

56:29And that's the thank you to Lord Fishnu for helping us navigate this so far. Right. Next. We're already so far running behind. I get this. I fuck this up every time. So I think it should be an hour. It'll be fine. I've got nothing to talk about. I get nervous beforehand. And then a glass of wine, talking to myself on camera, I find myself very charming and funny. So I can talk to myself all day. Because I'm not looking at you guys. I'm not seeing anything. You think I am. I'm looking at myself with a glass of wine and my lounge in the background here in Little Cayman. And I'm finding myself a hilarious company.

57:09I'm very insightful. Very insightful. Right. Next on the thing, merch. Merch store. Go to the merch store.

57:21We're trying to summon the fucking banana. I know a lot of you bought these. These have been really, really stupid hot sellers. Realvision.com.

57:32I think it's shop at realvision.com or something stupid. Shop.realvision.com. Or do it on the website. Look on the left-hand side. you'll see a picture of a T-shirt. Click on the T-shirt, buy your merch, and then wear it to the Miami event. You wear it to the Miami event. Oh, there's also a crypto gathering collection as well. Paul is speaking in my, well, he's not speaking in my ear. You can't hear him or I've got voices in my head. Again, we don't really know my level of sanity. Bananas own T-shirts, crypto gathering T-shirts. And if you wear merch at the event, there are special prizes going to be given out.

58:13I don't know what they are, but apparently they're special. Okay. Questions. I don't know what's working on the... Alicia Baker Simple Fuck Them on the platform. Alicia, I don't know what you're referring to. I'm sure it's the haters. Yes, thank you. What's on the menu today? I've got a lot of written ones from beforehand. I've got these ones. So I'm going to plow through as many as I can. because I know a bunch of Real Vision people couldn't get on the platform. I've got the spinning wheel of death again. Right, let me go to the dock. Okay. Fernando Mutaloa. More and more financial institutions are adopting crypto and blockchain.

58:59Will this influence the market-driven volatility of cryptos in the next bear cycle? During the bear market of 2022, Two, Bitcoin's maximum drop was only 76.9, which was less than previous cycles. Do you think the drop will be less than in 2026? Yes, Fernando. I think that's a really good point. I do. I think over time, volatility falls as you get market adoption. The more adoption, the more users, the more market activity, the more liquid it is, the less you tend to see the drops, the less the existential crisis of, are they going to ban it? Have I screwed up? Is this a stupid thing? All of that stuff goes away.

59:38But my guess is we probably see a closer to 50 % drop than an 80 % drop. And we could only see a 40 % drop. And that will get a lot of people offside because people want to trade the cycle. And I kind of warn people about this endlessly. And we'll talk about this in a few months' time or several months' time. Be careful of like, I will all get, I'll nail the top. I'll go into stable coins. I'll fucking nail it. The market will go down 85%, and I can buy at the low like Chris Bonisky, and I'm going to be a god. You will not do that. You will, A, not put the same amount of money back in because it's terrifying.

1:00:15B, you will not get the top. And C, what happens if the market falls 40 % and then goes higher? And you'll be waiting for that drop, and you'll be chasing all the way up. You're not Chris Bonisky. And even Chris says exactly the same thing. We were swapping notes today on X about that. It's like, just be careful. Please be careful of expecting massive, massive. Now, anything smaller, your memes, smaller tokens, even earlier stage layer ones, maybe SWE, for example, they'll go down more because they're yet unproven. They don't have the network adoption, et cetera. So just be careful with all of that.

1:00:57But that's where probably the big gains are. Right, next question. Steve Rowe. going in 2025. How low do you think it will fall in 2026? It would be great to hear where XRP's pricing go this year. Steve, I've told you I don't do price things. If I'd say it, I'm going to get it wrong. And B, what are you expecting from me? What are you expecting from anybody? Oh, yes, I think it's going to 537 ,027 cents. And I mean, this is nonsense. Nobody knows. I've given you the framework. Use your own conviction. Don't rent mine. Don't rent other people's conviction. That is a crucial thing. Mark Townsend, sorry, Steve.

1:01:47I'm just, I'm really serious about this stuff. Everyone's got to stop doing this. Mark Townsend, I put on my superannuation. Preparannuation, that means he's an Aussie, in Bitcoin, Solana, Tesla, microstrategy last year. Should I let the bear market happen and wait for the next crypto summer? Or take some profit near the top of this bull run and reinvest in the bear market? Bear market, that's the question I asked before. The last bear market, I kept it all and just added. And my all-time highs in P &L were way before almost anybody else because I didn't get rid of my position. If you think you can time it and you're a market god, or you think Julian and I can help you do it, you're probably sadly mistaken.

1:02:24It's your super-anion. It's your fucking pension plan. It's supposed to have a long-term time horizon. What your job is for 2026 is find as much cash as you can stuff into markets as possible because the next cycle, that's going to be a goddamn bubble of epic proportions as ASI comes in. So I just want to repeat that. I think the next cycle is an epic bubble if it's early to tell, if the liquidity, blah, blah, blah. But if it plays out like I think, I think it's going to be one for the record books. And that'll be the time to make sure you've got all your lifestyle chips, you've got your foothold in nature, and you can sit and watch the world play well.

1:03:08Magnus, is Elon Musk a threat to US growth as he cuts jobs and wasteful spending? How did it play out? Is Scott Besson focused on accelerated growth while controlling inflation? They're all really, really, really, really smart people. My guess is they will deregulate the economy. They will have good economic growth. They will have a weaker dollar. And then inflation will cyclically pick up towards the back end of the cycle. And the Fed will have to dampen the party. And their job is to try and find a balancing act to not make 2026 too bad because they want to get reelected in 2027. Simple as that.

1:03:47That's the game. And they're a bloody smart White House, I've got to admit.

1:03:53what chance do you allocate to the US stock market having a negative year in 2025? Ian, if you follow our work in the macro investing tool, you'll see we would probably assign a less than 10 % chance, maybe a less than 5 % chance. So as you go up the tiers, particularly into the plus tier, you get this level of guidance that's going to give you the confidence that you really need, where you can detune the stupid bullshit. People are like, well, we're going to have a blow-off top, and then we're going to collapse like 1929 next year, which is a bunch of people who engagement farm on Twitter. It literally can't happen for more reasons than I can explain right now, because I'm so far behind with these questions.

1:04:45Dan Rao stated he's been transitioning from Sol to Sui how does that line up with the don't fuck this up of your future since Sui was thought of having more risk what are your thoughts on staking Sol hopefully I've addressed that it is more risky I'm a more experienced investor I am overweighted significantly I do not expect you to be but I do think it's the best performing major of this thing It's now in the top 10, 11 tokens. It'll end up in the top five, I think, at the end of this cycle. So feel free to have a reasonable risk allocation to it. Again, the caveat is you know I'm on the board, so I don't want any of you throwing cheap shots on X.

1:05:25Like, oh my god, he's so biased. It's not. I'm a fucking mercenary for price and my capital, and it's going up like a rocket ship over time. What are your thoughts on staking Sol? I go backwards and forwards with this all the time. I just don't want to lose my tokens, and I just worry that whatever validator, whatever way of doing it, I do it, I fuck it up. Feel free to do it, but it's not for me. And I know it's free money if I get it right, and then somebody's going to snapshot that and goes, Raoul says it's free money. Sorry, you can tell I'm still so scarred from that last time. I mention this every time.

1:06:06Claire Sexton, Raoul does, Don't fuck it up. Thesis means it's not advisable to spread investments across ETH, SOL, XRP, and 50 % Bitcoin. That is perfect allocation. Completely works for the thesis.

1:06:21Okay, I'm going to move forwards a bit into, because those are free members. Let me just ask one more.

1:06:30Okay, no, let's go in because we're already way over late. Let's go into the plus tier questions. Richard Joyce, does RSM have to hit 47 to force the QE reset or other factors more important? We may not have quantitative easing. We did not have it in 2017. In fact, the Fed were raising rates. The Fed balance sheet was shrinking. USM2 was falling, right? If I gave you that set, Richard, you'd go, oh, my God, crypto is going to collapse. It's all about global, global liquidity. The Chinese were, as soon as the US weakened the dollar, they had been beaten up by the strong dollar and the previous down cycle.

1:07:13They were printing money like crazy. The Europeans did a cheeky bit of printing. The UK, cheeky bit of printing, completely overwhelmed the US. So don't worry about it. Does QE come back or not? I think they're too scared to use it because everyone knows the name QE means printing money. So they'll find different mechanisms.

1:07:38Andrew, Mike Howell's liquidity report says liquidity peaks in Q4. Raoul says upsides in the banana zone. We're in Q1, dude. So Q4 will be 2025.

1:07:59Akhil Dabazia, what advice would you give people in their early 20s investing in crypto with a 5-10-year horizon? well you can the easiest way to make it is just buy bitcoin and go to the beach you don't even have to think about your portfolio ever again it'll be fine um if not you're going to have to then learn what other tokens what you're trying to do by owning other tokens is go out the risk curve find things that are gaining adoption or may accelerate and that's the investing game which is which is a beautiful game to learn. But I would say for you in your early 20s, have 50 % of your portfolio in Bitcoin.

1:08:46And the 50 % use the don't fuck this up thesis and learn. You won't fuck it up as long as you have the major tokens and a small allocation to small tokens. Keep 50 % in Bitcoin, kind of don't touch that. You just simply can't go wrong. do you think ETH will outperform Bitcoin 2025 and 6 given competition in Bitcoin ETFs in 2025 I do because it's altcoin season the ETH Bitcoin cross is actually driven by the ISM the business cycle so it should happen Donald Wong what are the chances Bitcoin drops below 90 to 80 Donald asking the wrong questions to the wrong dude I don't give a fuck and you shouldn't either um

1:09:34Stephen Bezinger, what's happening with altcoins? Is there any hope they will run this cycle? Stephen, that's your insecurity playing out. Should I flip my soul for SUI ahead of the soul unlock or stale pill for what's next? You're over-trading, dude. If you prefer SUI, buy it. If you're worried, don't. Just everybody stop over-trading. Okay, moving down. RV, crypto. Pro-crypto first. Mark Naismith Beely. What a fantastically English name, Mark. I'll probably find out you're an Australian there. But does Raul disagree with Chem Carson's view of treasury yields, or does he think crypto will benefit from liquidity injections?

1:10:23I have no fucking clue what Chem's view is. I don't read other people's research, because I like to keep mine based around my own independent thought. But Chum's a good guy. Does he think crypto will benefit from liquidity injection? My entire framework is on this. It's everything I write about in ProMacro. And you get it in the MIT and you get macro investing tools. So it's all there. uh raul would you suggest reallocating from eth to sui given a portfolio heavy in bitcoin and soul look i like sui i think it's the outperformer of the cycle i love ethereum i like bitcoin um i like solana love solana um i just think sui looks like the strongest uh thing avi crypto james irving what's the likelihood exchanges like binance and kucoin could be a money trap for China if war is declared.

1:11:22It's not fucking war being declared. Forget that. Bullshit. Nobody wants to go to war, literally. And everybody knows the risks, so they will find a solution which is not war. It's been so long. I mean, since, I don't know, since Kyle Bass has been talking about this, and he's a good friend of mine, for like eight years on Real Vision, they're going to war. And we've had so many people like they're going to war. they're going to war in this month, April 2021. I remember being told that by Mike Green, that they're going to war. No, nobody wants to go to war with China. They just want to figure a way of getting a better relationship.

1:12:06Greg, do tariffs on foreign countries affect crypto performance? No. Ahmed Wajid, Sui's lagging compared to past reversals. Does the upcoming token, there's no lumpy up token unlocks forget about it all noise again you're all too short term stop being short term it's irrelevant I don't care what unlocks in bloody Solana or anything just we're trying to play the next 12 months

1:12:35comments on micro strategies and small caps moving forwards that's James Cock who's an exponentialist member that's important because you guys If you're watching this on X and if you're watching this on YouTube and you haven't signed up to realvision.com and you're impervious to my haranguing, you can't be cool like James. See, James is an Exponentialist member. It is free for anybody who joins the platform. Right now, realvision.com forward slash join. You get the GMI report and you get Exponentialist for free for a month. So you can be cool like James. James, your question on micro strategies, I don't really have any view on it.

1:13:17If Bitcoin goes up, it goes up with more volatility. And small caps moving forward would be appreciated. Small caps as the ISM cost is 50 should start to outperform. I know it's been very hard for people in small caps. Okay, and that's the end of the prepaid list. Let me see if there's any other questions on the platform.

1:13:42Sorry, I'm trying to bring it up now. One sec.

1:13:49Stefan, play some pool for us. I'm a really, really shit pool player. I'm like a... I think friends would call me Bambi on ice. My inability to have coordination means that I am not particularly good at pool. After a few drinks, my game of pool is generally... I start really shit. All my friends beat me and then they get a bit drunk. as do I, but I'm pretty good with not fucking it up at the end, and that helps me win occasionally, but rarely. My God, there's so many questions on the platform. I'm going to keep going for a bit. Fuck it. Nick, tell your wife you're not there for dinner. What's it like to talk to your AI doppelganger?

1:14:31That's coming next week, I think, or the week after. And also the AI, if you're on the Real Vision platform, You see every day that I, an AI me, reads out news written by AI to catch you up on the markets. I think that I would love to know if you can leave some comments about, is that any use? Look, it's a minimum viable product as a test. Is it any use for me to come on the platform, give you the news? Give us some comments about it, please. It would be very helpful. Somehow we'll have to get the team to troll through this, but it would be helpful. just what your thoughts are. It's obviously going to iterate and prove and everything else.

1:15:10So assume it's not dead state, end state, but going somewhere.

1:15:19Okay. Philistines, Keith Jacobs, Philistines. You're all Philistines and I love you for it. I will get you all up the wealth curve and you won't be Philistines. You'll be civilized. you'll be sipping fine wines on a beautiful peninsula in majorca with your old farmhouse and you'll be showing your friends how civilized you really are and you'll remember me in the back of the head and said you know what that weird english bloke who lives in the cayman islands he helped me um if i didn't and you fuck it up it's nothing to do with me you've never met me should I swap my link for sweet? I don't know.

1:16:02Look at the chart. Link versus sweet. I haven't checked it. Okay. Should I, should I not borrow some money from my church's donation fund to buy more sweet? That's a great fucking question. Obviously it's a joke. My, the church, your church donation fund may well be your wife's Christmas list or birthday present list. Yeah, I'd steal that for sure. She'll never know. She'll never know.

1:16:37Ellen Vanko. I know we've had a question before. LA disaster, which is just horrific, going to impact the economy near term.

1:16:49Well, LA is a reasonably large economy, but I think business still is going on in LA. it's the housing issue. So generally speaking, there'll be stimulus in LA and a building boom for the next five years. So it probably helps the LA economy over time after this COVID-like everything shuts for a while. But a lot of LA still functions, the media industry, the entertainment industry still keeps going. Nicola Lurita, full-time chef, learning, thank you. Full-time chef, we love chefs. Love chefs. I think of myself as a chef, but I'm not. But it's actually one of my favorite creative pursuits is cooking.

1:17:32Cooking, glass of wine, some beautiful music on. It's like I'm so happy. If I'm trying to be really sophisticated, it'll be Miles Davis kind of blue, a glass of champagne, or a fine glass of Bellini Monrochet, because it's earlier in the evening, so you don't want anything too heavy, and cooking something, it's like the best ever. And it needs to be dark outside like it is now.

1:18:04Okay. Roy Blanchard, how do I get started with crypto?

1:18:15Roy, the easiest thing is to buy a basket of three tokens, or four, or five, or six. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana. If you want XRP, Doge for a bit more risk and Sui for a new technology, if not, by three. If you're not, why the fuck does my Zoom do this? If you want to do one, just buy Bitcoin. If you haven't done anything before, open an account with Coinbase or Kraken, buy Bitcoin. Feel what it's like to buy it or a fraction of a Bitcoin have much money you're putting in. And then you can think about, okay, what else do I want to do? That's what I do with most of my family. Most of them are now deep down like Sui or Solana rabbit holes when they started off with Bitcoin.

1:19:16Great to be here. Cut through the crap. Some of your members need to read your thesis. I don't really understand what you're talking about. What thesis? What cut through the crap?

1:19:29Tony Torres, will we see you on the volleyball courts in Miami? No.

1:19:36uh stringer bell ral please state a suey price prediction and stake your reputation on it good things stringer i've learned that you have a sense of humor and so i'm just going to tell you fuck off but i know you're joking anyway and i'm joking um steve stevens just booked my hotel in miami okay let's go back to this again all the cool kids we're gonna be basking in the sun you'll have suntans like me you'll probably get a little more handsome like me too we'll all be wearing our bananas and t-shirts we'll be laughing drinking fine wine and you fuckers will be in minnesota or wherever you live eating doritos thinking why did i not go or you'll be in london even worse can you imagine or berlin can you imagine just miserable sideways rain sitting there dark from three o 'clock in the afternoon thinking a flight from miami was only 500 bucks or a thousand bucks and I didn't go, I have to question you and your sanity.

1:20:37Realvision.com forward slash CG 2025. There is literally like 50 tickets or 30 tickets or whatever stupid left. So please just get them done. And it's going to be epic. Nick Correa, all good. I'll ask his wife to bring him a bag of Doritos to hold me over. Nick, you're a man of elegance. You dress well, you're good looking, you don't eat Doritos, I'm sure of it. And your wife would never allow it. Nick is our kind of senior editor. He's one of the longest standing Real Vision people and one of the nicest people I'll ever meet. And annoyingly good looking. And he's good on camera as well. Fucking annoying.

1:21:20He started doing stuff on camera for a while. He's really good at that as well. Plus being a cameraman, plus being an editor. Nick can do anything. I'm not seeing him dance. Maybe I don't want to. Selling gold for Sui. I don't know what the fuck's going on here. Okay. I'm going to go to this is the last. Stefan, I'm not playing pool for you. Okay, last question. I'm going to the top. I've now broken it. No. Lewis, thank you for your videos. Stringer. Raoul, I love you. Stringer, I don't know who the hell you are, but you're probably drunk.

1:22:00um timothy harris tim is always a super fan he's always around appreciate you tim thank you for everything you're always around always part of the community always active um best hour or more on the internet love rv love you and these awesome amas thank you everybody love you all i'm sorry as ever chaotic show i feel like i didn't say anything but then i did i gave a lot of alpha tried to bully you into signing up to the platform because you fuckers just renting me on X, sounds weird, but it's true, or on YouTube, if I've helped you in any way, I'd really appreciate if you did sign up to the platform because it matters to me.

1:22:39And what you're going to find out is it's going to unfuck your future. Scrolling, doom scrolling on X or watching stupid videos from terrible content creators on YouTube is not going to change your life. What's going to change your life is Real Vision and ask any one of these members and they'll tell you it has. Doesn't mean we're always right. And it's not me. Real Vision is a vast group of some of the world's greatest analysts, researchers, hedge fund managers, market participants, all in one place, speaking their truth, helping guide you in your future. I want you to meet that future vision of yourself.

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1:25:21Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500. It's trading with a plus.