Drinks with Raoul Pal: Crypto, Macro, Wine & Life (AMA)

27:40I won't go through this in great detail. But in absolute terms, spring and summer is equities. Commodities, summer. So if you're a commodity trader, now's the time. You don't want to touch bonds. You don't want to touch cash. And crypto, yeah, baby. you're into that. So that's basically that tool. And I think that's pretty useful. Now, for those of you who are, let me go to add-ons because we don't just leave you with that and hope you to figure it out. Where are we? Macro investing tool. So Julian actually does videos and I do videos with Julian explaining it every month. What's going on? How to understand it?

28:22Also, there's academy courses on how to understand the business cycle. Then every week, Julian writes an unbelievable report about all of this in huge detail because Julian can't do a short presentation. He has to do 1 ,000 charts. So we cover everything, all the inflation, all of what's going on. But let's get to what you care about because you're trying to pretend you care about macro. What you actually care about is your bag. Your bag is probably Solana. Well, it's breaking out. It's retesting that breakout. That's what it's been doing the last couple of days. Looks beautiful. We want to see this kind of stuff because retested breakouts, bit of sideways consolidation brings you the power of the banana, which is all we care about.

29:08The Solana Bitcoin cross, look at that. Beautiful. Why own Bitcoin when you can own Solana? Solana Bitcoin cross two, when you look at the big chart, But, okay, that's a fucking killer inverse head and shoulders, cup and handle, whatever it is. It's suggesting there is a very big move to come in this cross, meaning Solana is going to outperform a lot. That is a typical signature of crypto summer, which is altcoin season. And just to remind you, the game we're playing, here's the chart that looks like a banana. We understand bananas are phallic and they make us laugh, and we like to talk them out on the internet.

29:48The memes are fucking brilliant, so please keep sending the Banana Zone memes. What you have is the boring zone and then you have the Banana Zone. And I would like you guys in the comment section to tell me when do you think the Banana Zone starts? I kind of think we actually started, so I would say it really starts becoming obvious in the next couple of weeks. I could be wrong. Again, it doesn't make any difference. I'm not trading around this, not doing anything. I'm just watching from the stands and waiting because I'm fully loaded. I've been in the position for a long time. But listen, in the comments section, I'd love to know your view of when you think bananas have.

30:29Some people think after the election. Some people think just before the election. Others people think, well, when people come back from holiday, maybe in September. I don't know, but let me know.

30:42Yeah. Another interesting thing, sorry, I'm showing the Real Vision platform, not because I'm pitching or anything, but realvision.com, sign up if fucking cheapskates. It's free, so therefore, why would you not do this? If you look down here, it's the trade ideas. Somebody, Derek, I don't know Derek, but Derek's really active here, has put up a trade idea based around what I'm talking about right now, which is, sorry, I just need to move this out of the way.

31:16which is the Tesla idea. And he's put Tesla up as the long because I've recommended it, which is great. I was actually going to put that trade idea up myself, but you can come along and see the trade ideas. I put trade ideas up myself. I don't give too much away because ProMacro is where all of my work is. But there's hundreds of trade ideas. So if I go to the Knowledge Center, these are just members, amazing people putting together trade ideas. And there's some absolute killer ideas. So there's the one that Derek put up for me, which is my Tesla idea. And I think it's timings right now because it's just filled the gap on the chart.

32:01In fact, I can show you that. So if I just click into this one, let's give it a bar chart. Let's give it a daily. Let's give it Tesla.

32:22So Tesla started wave one, wave two, wave three. This is a wave four correction of a larger move. The long-term chart pattern, it actually broke out of the big downtrend. It's going to be forming a larger head and shoulders top, bottom, which is giving me price price of like 800 plus. What we're doing is just filling this gap here. So that's, I think, what we're doing. So I think it'll be over pretty soon. And then I'm looking at buying that. So that's Tesla that came from the trade ideas that we were looking at. And there's a whole bunch. I mean, there's hundreds of trade ideas. So if I keep scrolling, they keep loading as members put amazing trade ideas, both crypto, macro, all sorts of stuff.

33:08It's probably a bit slow because I'm on so much internet. Anyway, that's enough of the platform. We're going to get into the questions. The questions are you asking me questions on the platform itself. Let me just close this one down.

33:30I will put a trade idea on the platform, so make sure if you're new to Real Vision or you're not using the trade ideas yet, check it out because I will definitely put something up there. I don't know what the idea is yet, but we'll see. But I think there's some opportunities. I just want you to use this feature. Even though hundreds of you are, the value of this, as we iterate and improve on the experience of this, is incredibly valuable. A network of me giving an idea to 20 ,000 people is miles less valuable than 20 ,000 people giving ideas to 20 ,000 people. That's the network effects. That's what Real Vision is all about.

34:08Okay. So realvision.com, sign up, do that, ask the questions. Let's go over to the questions. Now, refill your drinks if you want. Do all of that. Make sure you have a snack. Those in New Zealand, yeah, you can probably open your Sauvignon Blanc now. About the right time for you. And Americans, please. you may be starting with a manhattan or whatever you drink or neat scotch or neat whiskey great have it with a snack not fucking doritos and um and remember we don't drink that with dinner it's just uncivilized so let's go to the questions so i'm going to pull up my screen next to me so i can read the questions and let's have some fun so firstly in the comment sections a shit ton.

35:02So let's do that. Thor staying awake. I hope I haven't been too boring, but at least we're here. Thor waiting here in Mallorca with a glass of much amassed white wine, keeping awake to hear you insulting us. Well, at least you're in Mallorca. Your name is Thor, which is a ridiculous name. It's like God of Thunder or something. But I'll let you off because you're drinking a glass of white wine in Mallorca, which is one of my utter favorite places in the world. Paul Cohen. Hi, Raoul. Hope the hurricane season didn't cause too much damage. It looked rough. Currently sitting here with a black tea and a soul beer.

35:36Now, Paul is actually in Australia, so he's got a beer for breakfast, which, you know, oh, the soul beer he actually gave me in Melbourne. I think it was Melbourne. He gave me a soul beer, which I think I forgot to take when I was there. And again, it was for breakfast, obviously, because Australians drink beer for breakfast because, We threw them out of England a couple of hundred years ago. They've never really gotten over it. Ruth Alvarez. Hi, Raul. Watch Julian's update and use the bot to see it was recommended to sell some of my assets. This is Julian Brigden, not Bittle. Julian Brigden is part of Promacro.

36:16He has an independent research service called MI2 Partners. I'm all in here and have limited cash reserves. The bot suggested to be prudent to reduce risk and increase liquidity. Do you have any thoughts here? I don't want to miss the banana zone.

36:34Ruth, time horizon, time horizon, time horizon. If you're in it for the asset allocation time horizon of the business cycle, you shouldn't do anything. If you're uncomfortable and you can't sleep at night, you should always reduce your positions. Now, I can't help you manage your positions. I understand you're 62, you want to retire early, you don't want to fuck this up. um the last thing you want is to try and time something then you get caught out and then it goes up and then you're not ready to buy it because oh my god i've missed it and then you're waiting for the correction the correction doesn't happen if you're in it for the longer term time which is the remainder of the business cycle let's say uh which is end of 2025 then you shouldn't really do anything if you're really worried just buy some puts um but what what is really going to cause a gigantic correction, a 20 % plus correction.

37:30What we're dealing with is dollar-yen moving, a bit of politics and trying to figure out who the new politicians are going to be in the United States. There's nothing to worry about. Markets will be volatile. They should be volatile. You should embrace the volatility. see um although as um brian wild said her plan is i'm hoping to retire in style and buy a home in the south of france to be with my daughter and grandson love you this is what lifestyle chips are all about this is what i talk about is you need the lifestyle chips to accumulate so you can have that accretive lifestyle that's the game we're in is that lifestyle of you being in the south of france maybe in provence you got lavender growing down your driveway you've got um you know some beautiful food.

38:16You've got the views over the gentle hills. You've got sunflowers. Yeah, I get it. South of France, gorgeous. Ruth, you go for it. Ludo. So Ludo's an old friend of mine. Isn't there a case to be made for a short, magnificent seven and long Bitcoin sole ETH? If Bitcoin is digital gold and trouble in over-end tech, with Bitcoin ETFs now available, then we have a trade. No, I'm off to bed. Love to hear your views, Ludo. Ludo's in Switzerland. I used to work with him at Goldman. Ludo, my answer to this is, if you want to be cute, you can trade a spread of tech versus crypto. Don't forget, the NASDAQ is down 99.97 % since 2011 versus Bitcoin.

39:11So yeah, that trade's always going to work out. What's the point? It's all about the numerator, and crypto goes up a lot. So I don't see, it's not really going to hedge you in anything. I don't think it adds a tremendous value. But yes, it will do that, and people can do it because the ETF is now available. So yes, I don't think it really adds any alpha to your portfolio.

39:34Alex Lester, can we talk about Julian Bridgton's flash update? Yes, we can, Alex. Any concerns from you regarding the yen carry trade? Also, the real yield curve reinversion has historically been very bearish. Is this time different? It has not always been bearish. It usually means that economic growth is slowing down. Here, it's not the case that we're headed into a recession. The case here is because of the stickiness of inflation, it took a while for the Fed to cut. So financial conditions and everything else, I've discounted this a long time ago, as did all markets. So I am not concerned about the yen carry trade.

40:16It's fucking noise. It makes you sound smart on the internet. Really, it's just noise in the time horizon that I operate in. Sure, if your time horizon is two weeks, yeah, worry about the yen carry trade and the leverage and the option expiry level, and I don't care. It's not the time horizon that I operate in. Yield curve reinversion, red herring. NM, hey, boss, good to hear your thoughts on Julian's video. Look, Julian operates in different time horizons to me. He is also a more natural bear than I am, and that's okay. So he will look for these opportunities more than I will. I would look for them to buy.

40:57He would look for them to sell. Not saying fading him. I'm like, okay, yeah, if the market comes down to 10%, yeah, I'm absolutely a buyer. so again I don't really necessarily now spilt olive tapenard over my shorts as I was getting passionate about time horizons looks like poo

41:20it's not good I just realised what I did that might gross you out gross me out thank you anyway let's keep going sorry there's a lot of questions and we're already 40 minutes in Raoul any thoughts on the carbon trade will that pick up on the economic cycle or something fundamentally changed Matt this might be my idea that I might put on the platform so yeah good spot when the business cycle picks up it slightly lags the carbon trade should kick in those are the EU ETS allowances for those of you who are playing along at home I'll probably write about it. Well, I'll certainly write about it in ProMacro first anyway.

42:05I won't put it on the platform before then.

42:12There's a lot about Julian's update. Where do you see DXY? This is from David Valancius. Where do you see DXY and JPY short, medium, long term? Long term, dollars going higher, much higher, much higher. The whole world is short dollars. Dollar is a global reserve currency. Everybody's in debt. You're borrowing dollars. It's a big fucking problem. Medium term, I think the dollar goes down. This is the part of the business cycle, macro summer, macro fall. The dollar tends to weaken. So that's where we are. Again, the macro investing tool should help you discover that if you're a paid member of Real Vision and Real Vision Plus.

42:53Short term, I don't really do short term, but I think dollar down.

43:11Okay. Julian, everyone's really worried about the Julian update. Look, if you're worried, if you're really worried, are you using too much leverage? Is it going to affect you if the market corrects 20 %? I don't think Julian said we're expecting the crash of the century in 1929. I think he just said, be careful. deleveraging to come, et cetera.

43:36I do see this way too much as an honest piece of advice. Everyone's far too focused in the minutiae. And what you're missing, you're focused on these little things, but these things are part of that thing. Focus on that thing, not this thing. Even if you've got a lot of your net worth in the trade, we've gone through in detail, as have millions of people on the platform explained that the business cycle is the driver of asset prices. We are just picking up in the business cycle. We're early stage. So therefore, this is not the time to worry about selling out of your assets. Oh, my God, are we peaking?

44:18Sure. Can you have an air pocket? Can you have a correction? Absolutely. But this is not the time. I urge you to watch the business cycle courses, to read the macro investing tool. Watch Julian Bittles' video. They will calm you down. They will get your sensory system just calmer. And I think you'll find you'll become a better investor once you feel like you've got a framework and you're not listening to, well, he said that, and he said that, and he said that, and she said that. Don't do that. Understand the framework you want to operate and the time horizon you want to operate and just stick with it.

44:55Okay. Right. Shit ton of other Christians. Chris Nyers. This will be fun. He's had his rest. Now down to work. Yes, thank you, Chris.

45:10Justin Russo. Raoul, are you a fan of Limoncello? Limoncello is the Italian drink of alcohol. spirits with infused lemon and sugar. I find it a bit sweet. I made it at home. I used to make it with an unsweet version, which is like a lemon vodka or whatever your neat spirit is. That's kind of fun. But I do like it occasionally. Jordan McCaffrey, why is it the fact you can't talk about suey makes me feel like it's going to explode? Just saying hi from Paso Robles, California, home of high octane red wines. Yeah, they are actually. Thanks. I love these spaces. Jordan, I just don't want to be accused of shilling.

45:57That's another 20 minutes. It's not too bad. It's not too bad. I don't want to be accused of shilling something because it gets taken out of context and the internet's an evil place and I'm quite scarred by people from the past. and my intention i think most of you know is pretty pure however i'm on the foundation of sui even if i wasn't it's one of the most interesting technologies it's one of the most incredible group of people who built the entire move protocol whilst at facebook the largest web2 network in the world to scale for the entire Web2 world. If that does not make you pick, sit up and pay attention, I don't know what will.

46:54Now, you know, it's kind of moving in line with Alts. It's not showing its trend yet, but it's very early. It only launched about a year ago. So there's a lot going on in the space. Follow it on Twitter. Make your own mind up. It's firmly on my radar screen and not because I'm on the foundation because it's fucking good. So that's how I'll phrase that. I actually do also think that it's going to be part of the next bull run. That might freak you out, my little bit of fish. Some people are going to go, that's disgusting. And those of you who know Boca Ronas will go, oh, my God, how lucky is he?

47:38William Julian Brigden Julian Brigden Julian Brigden anybody's asking about the Julian Brigden question Julian can be bearish I can be bullish we operate in different time horizons as I said I am not concerned and again even if it falls further than here I'm not saying he's wrong or anything it's just we operate different time horizons different risk tolerances

48:04okay Right, I need to go down this list a bit further. Sorry if I'm skipping over you.

48:12Derek Roberts, a lot of bear porn out there. Do you think it's the evidence of risk to your thesis or just confirming that liquidity wave is coming? Bear porn, there is always bear porn. Bear porn sells research. Bear porn gets attention. You can see it here in the comments. People are like, bearish? Oh, my God. Is somebody going to take my money? I need to know. I need to know. That's what it does. Doesn't mean it's wrong to be bearish from time to time, but just remember that.

48:45Matt Azevedo, here's a nuclear bomb question because people are fuckwits on the internet. Please share your thoughts about XRP. I will share my thoughts about XRP. XRP is a real project with some elements of traction, an incredible team, and they deserve a lot of kudos, and they have not had a breakout of volumes and use cases. It's always on the promise. And that's why I find so many people stuck in XRP. I went for dinner last night with a very old friend of mine. He's like, yeah, well, I got some XRP. I'm like, how long have you had that for? Oh, like five years. I'm like, for fuck's sake, you've missed the whole market.

49:24And I've got nothing wrong with XRP as a concept and its valuation I don't have a problem with. I just, I'm here to make money. And if it's not out forming Solana, go in the fucking dustbin. Impeccable taste tonight from John Crichton El Bariño. From Riesch Bayes in Galicia. There's the wine again. Zarate El Palomar. I don't know this wine, just bought it from the shop. That's Riesch Bayes. I don't know if you can read that. Maybe you can. So you can understand how it's spelt. 12.5%, not too high alcohol, not the stupid 14 % white wine shit that people are selling now. This is elegant. We're trying to live a civilized existence, as I say.

50:16Paola Golbin, Good Wine Albarino. Thank you. YS, keto is shit, not sustainable. Calories in, calories out. I've been on keto for years. It actually, it's not the case. But anyway, I don't have time to go through that. But yes, calories in, calories out, matters a lot.

50:41Simon de Santos and Portugal. I presume that's talking about Portuguese wine, which is amazing. I was in Portugal after the Global Macro Investor Antigua, when it was in March, April. Went to a beautiful vineyard there as well. Drunk some fresh, beautiful Portuguese wine. So it's good. And Portuguese seafood is good because the Atlantic closed. Hi from St. Louis, Abisco, California. We're cultured folks here. Really? I've never heard that. Okay. Oh, fuck, there's so many of you. Derek Roberts. Again. So Derek, you've had two questions, and I think we've read up your trade idea. Raoul, you've been clear about your own strategy of not trying to time the tops and bottoms of the market.

51:31Instead, standing mostly all in throughout the cycles. However, the selection of assets and portfolio allocation are important variables in this strategy. Yes, as you know, I've gone from being all Bitcoin to all Ethereum to all Solana. So even if I stay in cycles, asset allocation is crucial. I don't know what the next asset allocation is, so I am where I am, and I'll do the work when I decide.

52:05Banana Zone. I want that shirt. So Thor, I want that shirt. Right, I'm just going to share the platform again, because this is important. This is very important. Can I do it on the Safari version? Yeah, I can. Can I? Yeah, maybe I can. I got all weird because that's me lagged on the screen because I'm having to read the questions here. But if I go into here, oh, you won't see it. It launches the merch shop window.

52:49oh there it is sorry the merch store window go there all the merch is there it's amazing stuff there is banana zone merch coming i just want to be in the banana zone first and not fucking jinx it so anyway that's that bit let me go back to the questions okay uh i need t-shirts as well yes they're all there merch store merch store merch store tons of cool stuff the hoodies are cool as shit. The t-shirts are great, but there's also all of the millennial drinking cups. What is that with a comfort cup for water? What's wrong with the fucking putting your head under a tap and drinking some water? But no, apparently you need to have a millennial drinking cup.

53:28It's like a comfort blanket.

53:40Finn, what's your opinion on XRP? Again, I'm not saying XRP won't go up. I just don't want to be trapped into an old trade. It could be great. In fact, let me just have a look on my Bloomberg screen next to me. I don't have to keep pissing around with the other thing.

53:58XRP down 2 % year-to-date. Solana up 65 % year-to-date. This is my point. What are you doing? You've missed a 70 % difference. I don't get it.

54:21Okay, sorry, I'm reading the question. This is when I get the dumb mouth. Nothing that. Michael Cole, Musk is a shill. Brilliant. Thank you for the value add. I love community members like you. Musk is a shill. What value is that, Michael, to the community? If you've got a point to make, make a proper point with a reasonable, rational argument. That's what real vision is about. We're here to respect each other's opinions and not make stupid, dumb comments. Sorry, but I get passionate about this. We treat each other well, create a great community. We were undefeated. If we do stuff like that, it's pointless.

55:04Okay.

55:09Okay, I'm just going to move down because these are all old. Microstrategies, microstrategies, microstrategies, MSTR. I don't know. If crypto goes up, it goes up. Blake O'Shields, any thought on the Cardano-Chiang hard thought? Is there any hope for Cardano at this point? It feels like it's been left in the dust. Do the chart, Cardano against Solana. Make your own mind up. It's been left in the dust. You've made your mind up. Just take the action. I know it's horrible to realize losses. Sometimes you have to.

55:45Joshua Smith, why are you so long? I'm six foot four. It's not that long.

55:53Okay. This is so far behind where we are in the conversation. Raoul, how do I email you directly? You don't. You message me on the platform directly and I answer my messages. So just go to the notes. You can message anybody. You knock your socks off. That's what the whole community part's about. So go and do that. Zane. Hey, Zane. Good to see you, my friend. Hey, Raoul. I wonder if you have any thoughts on the process of finding the balance between not mid-curving, yet staying open-minded enough to explore and not have an investment thesis formed in the echo chamber. Simply put, how do you tell signal from noise?

56:27Great to see you again.

56:31It's a really good question.

56:36you need to two things one is experience and time the other is to have a clear robust framework of which you are able to test against it does this actually matter does it change my hypothesis so let's say your hypothesis is the business cycle is going to drive crypto asset prices and drive liquidity up until 2025, end of 2025. And there's a US election, and it could be one Trump versus Harris. And they're like, oh, my God, is this going to change my equation? Is that the trade you're changing? Does it fundamentally change the story or not? Does because Julian Brigden get bearish at an interim point in a cycle because he thinks it's a capturable thing.

57:28Does that change your thesis or not? So it really is kind of prioritizing. How important is this and how big is this and how real is this? What is the probability of this? Because it's so alluring because everyone will tell you China's going to invade Taiwan. Every fucking month they'll read the same shit. Why? Because everyone gets scared and it sells newsletters.

57:52So, Jane, I don't have a clear answer for you, my friend. it really is experience and testing the hypothesis with things that actually matter to that hypothesis.

58:10Taz Blenow, instead of trade ideas, we should do a wine idea sharing platform. Try Languedoc region in South of France. So Taz, there is a notes section. Let's go. Let's start creating wine sharing ideas in the notes section. you can then everybody can add in the comments on the notes do that love it people are going to love it um so ruth ral the video of you in spain teaching the server to distill wine was hysterical thank you for everything you do no i'm going to explain that that's me that's my wife talking about how you need to add, aerate Chacoly. Chacoly is the light, clean, fresh wine from the Basque Country.

58:56And you're supposed to pour it in this great height, and it aerates it. They do it with cider there as well. And so as you do that, you get it into the glass, and the servers do this. It comes to your table. That was a gorgeous fish restaurant in Getaria, just outside San Sebastian, called Cayacalpe, which is one of the best fish restaurants I've ever been to. Just very cool. Not as good as the one in Madrid, but amazing. So there's my wife. She's tried it. A bunch of people have tried it. They all failed. And I'm like, no, trust me. Let me show you. I am a guru, and I also play a guru on the internet.

59:29I did that, and it's just the whole thing, spoiled all over the table. You'll see that on Twitter. So have a look at that. It was quite fun. We had a very good lunch. It was quite liquid. Brian Wilde, get on with the basidra with some oily tapas. Give it a go. Yeah, I just mentioned the basidra. I love it. That's cider in the Basque Country. Ultra, ultra petrol fresh. Can't describe that. But again, it suits the green, salty, mountainous country. And then with the oily food, it cuts through it. So very good.

1:00:06Adrian Miles, Bank of Canada just cut rates again yesterday. How soon do you think the US Fed follows? I actually have a hunch they'll do it in the July meeting, whenever that is. When is that?

1:00:19But if not, September's almost a certainty. What is the Fed? FOMC, 31st. I kind of think they're going to cut, but the market's not pricing that, so maybe I'm wrong.

1:00:39number one thing you're excited about right now from caleb

1:00:46what am i excited about i'm excited about a lot well it's fucking amazing i was just chatting to peter diamandis today got an interview with him coming out shortly just i things are just amazing i'm in love with with technology the technological change you know it was lovely to go traveling i'm very excited about traveling to zambia uh at the end of august i am going with a friend meeting a friend in zambia going with my wife and we are off-roading through the north luanga uh national park which is super remote um sleeping on the tent on the roof of the of the Toyota Land Cruiser with a tent way away from any people and just pray the leopards or the hyenas don't get me.

1:01:29So I'm very excited about that, actually. Excited about a bunch of stuff we're doing at Real Vision. It's actually really exciting. I'm excited about... I'm excited about the banana zone. That'll be fun. So there's a lot going on.

1:01:46What was that?

1:01:50Oh! That was Paul, who helps me on the social media side. In fact, he runs all the social media. He's like, tell him you're excited about your YouTube channel hitting 100 ,000. I'm not. I want more. I'm just greedy, and I want it to be like 200, 250 ,000. That's what I said to Paul. At the end of the year, I want a quarter of a million people on the YouTube channel. So if you're watching this and you haven't fucking subscribed, you're just rude now at this point. So please hit the subscribe button and then go across to Real Vision. In fact, I'll give you a second to note. Subscribe to the channel.

1:02:23Put your notifications on. That's on YouTube if you guys are the cheap stakes on YouTube. The rest of us on the platform, we'll just carry on drinking wine and being elegant and sophisticated. Okay, now you've subscribed, then come across to realvision.com where you can hang out with the cool kids, network with them, do everything else. That's another 20 minutes. It's not too bad. 20 minutes of glass. I'm going to slow down now and cook some dinner. So come to realvision.com and then just put something in the chat or the comment section to say that you've come across. Because if not, you're probably lying.

1:03:00Realvision.com. There you go. You can just do the QR code if you're too lazy to type. And then come across and just put something in the comment section. Say, hey, I'm new here. Maybe I'll be nice to you. Maybe I'll insult you. I don't know yet.

1:03:17Christian Greedy. Raoul, is the US late in adding liquidity? If so, why, in your opinion? Yeah, they're a little bit late, actually, as you saw from the leading indicators in the macro investing tool on the platform. I think it's just because they just so desperately want to get inflation to a certain level so they can cut rates more. But liquidity, don't forget, has led all of this, so it's been pausing. But it will come. It is coming. But it's not a prerequisite, because if you go to the 2016 cycle, the US didn't really add much liquidity. It really came from other countries. So remember, it's a global game out there.

1:03:58It's not just the US. It's a global debasement of currency.

1:04:07Rupesh, the US cannot be late in adding liquidity. It's the main provider of it. Yes, but it can also be added by the euro dollar system. Sam Gill, this is a good question. Like this, Sam. Put me on the spot in an actual reasonable question. Raoul, if you choose one stock, Coinbase or Tesla, which do you go for? I've gone on paper and said, these are going to be the best two performing stocks of this cycle.

1:04:38I don't know. I'm going to go for Tesla.

1:04:46Kimberly Vizuraga. Raul, any updates on the Fire Dancer release or other Solana real-world assets you're excited about? I don't know about the real-world asset stuff. The Fire Dancer, as far as I know, it's in test right now. I think it's going to be out by Solana mainnet in September, Solana breakpoint in September. It's a very big deal. It's fast, stuff like that. Oh, by the way, also you should check out the SUI thing, the Mr. Setti release that just came out today has made it the 400 milliseconds latency now. So you can swap a currency in less than a second. These blockchains are getting really crazy smart.

1:05:31Lucas Rosema, Raoul, with Chris Bonisky, you explain the global liquidity is an invisible force that makes asset prices go up and not money flows into the market. I don't completely understand this, is there has to be money flows to make the market cap of a certain asset go up, right? No. Let's say tomorrow, no, how best to describe this? The denominator is the US dollar. And if you increase the supply of US dollars, it goes down. It optically, because we base ourselves in US dollars, it optically makes asset prices go up. this is debasement of currency i think i've done a lot on this on the platform so i'd search the everything code and look about this uh because i can't really do it justice here but really it's all about the debasement of the currency optically making prices higher they don't trade it's like when they did the massive debasement of currency here in the cayman islands a house opposite me sold for a 50 % price change overnight.

1:06:42The guy buying it didn't have more money. But the perceived valuation in terms of US dollars of the house had changed. It's the perceived valuation. I follow this a lot. There is no increase in volumes with liquidity increases, quantitative easing. Doesn't actually, sorry, I'm trying not to get tapenade all over me again. but I'm after a scoop of it.

1:07:15The S &P 500, when I look at the volumes, doesn't show extra volume. So therefore, it's not a flow thing. It's a debasement, a rebasing. Call it that. Stuart Murray, subscribe on YouTube. Current crypto member, thanks. so we have been running for those of it kind of feels a bit weird to promote it here but i promise the marketing team we do have a lot of education on the platform in fact i'm going to share the education stuff if you don't mind nick um so we're going to go to the platform so let me share the screen because actually this is important i'm not shilling the platform it's actually pretty important so here's delayed me living in my parallel quantum universe um but when i go to um the academy these are all of the courses so like we have the real investing course and that's an incredible needs to load that up it's an incredible multi-part course all about investing that's free these are all free as part of your subscription um the real investing course ones but if i go back to uh the investing academy we have the crypto academy and if you follow the link below if you want to learn more about investing crypto so firstly the first course is included it's like why macro matters how to trade majors how to trade altcoins and mean coins how to trade nfts right super fucking useful Ovi and Mando, two legends, helped us with that.

1:09:03Then if I go back to, then we had a whole series on Ichimoku Cloud, Demark Indicators, Bitcoin Risk with Benjamin Cowan, Market Maker Method by Trade Travel Chill, on-chain analysis with our own rock star Jamie Coots. That's all there too. And then just out recently is this one, which is really cool because we're about to go into the banana zone. And the banana zone is basically a kind of mini bubble cycle. Could be a full bubble cycle. Now, we've had this incredible course, which gives you the understanding of how to trade bubbles. Most people, Sebastian Purcell talks about this, but most people are like, well, bubbles, well, I'm going to keep out my way.

1:09:52George Soros is like, trade the fucking bubble. You make more money in that and you'll trade in anything ever in your life. And Sebastian teaches how to do it because crypto has a lot of bubble-like features that happen every cycle, and he teaches you how to do it. So the Crypto Academy is really worthwhile if you're early in your journey. It's not very expensive. It will really help you. It's a great introduction to what we can do with Real Vision, and it will help you not fuck this up. So follow the link below. stop sharing that so okay final thing we're now 10 minutes over time um and i didn't answer all your questions but there was a lot and i'm sorry i didn't manage to do it uh i love you all um i love you especially on youtube because there's 100 000 new people there but i i don't really respect you because you're on youtube and not on the platform so love and respect and always the same thing right so you know if i really want to respect you come to the platform everybody's lovely uh and you can start networking being involved in this bigger community with all of the tools and the amazing stuff um banana zone in a nutshell it's on its way be fucking patient everyone's like the banana fear i mean just stop all of that it'll come chill out take a summer holiday a glass of wine enjoy yourself but you leave in the comment section on the platform on youtube just tell me when do you think the banana zone comes because we can look at that and we can see where most people think it lies and you guys are smart people so you'll figure it out cheers out there see you next time make large crypto trades with crafted otc execute orders of more than a hundred thousand off the open exchange through our premium otc trading service get 24 7 access to deep liquidity minimal slippage and competitive execution and settlement services Private and secure trading options include chatting securely with our trade desk for a personalized high-touch service or use our self-service RFQ for super-fast automated OTC trading.

1:12:01Non-investment advice, crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to U.S. customers through Payward Interactive, Inc. For more information, go to realvision.com backslash kraken OTC.

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