Drinks with Raoul Pal: Wen Banana Zone?

28:30I panicked and said, fuck, I need to do something on screen. I need to give them some value. and so

28:40what we produce is some of the charts we're using Global Macro Investor Global Macro Investor that is the cool kids research that's like the famous hedge fund managers all the cool kids that's what they get GlobalMacroInvestor.com if any of you are professional crypto traders macro traders family offices or you've got a bit of cash and you want actually the real research. That's the epicenter of everything I do. So I'm going to open up this presentation and whiz through it. Some of the charts, I don't even know what Julian's talking about, but I humor him just to be nice to him because he's a millennial, so he's slightly sensitive.

29:26And me being a Gen X, we don't give a fuck. Okay, he's labeled at the macro-investing tool. This is actually GMI research, Real Vision pro-macro research, although it's not been in pro-macro yet. And it's partly been the macro investing tool. This is really from the last GMI. So Julian's not on deck to do this. So you're really getting a peek into the cool kid stuff. Firstly, Julian's putting this chart up of the Bitcoin halving versus previous ones. That's from the halving date. Underperforming now. but Kevin Kelly posted an amazing chart on Twitter. In fact, sorry, Nick's going to hate me because I keep switching charts.

30:10I'm going to show Kevin Kelly. Kevin is part of Real Vision Pro Crypto, one of the co-founders of Delphi and a very close friend of mine and one of the loveliest people in the world. He posted a chart on Twitter, which is a longer version of the chart Julian posted.

30:36And that's kind of peak, trough, and where we are. So it's so normal. Everything going on is exactly what it should be doing. We should be getting pretty close to the acceleration phase. The wiggles are different. The pattern is the same, right? So Kevin's chart, Julian's chart, same thing. Right, Nick, I'm flipping back to the other presentation. um so this is why nick is the most amazing person he's been with us forever um he's just the most talented editor and one of the nicest people you could ever meet in your life um so okay next chart this is the gmi total uh liquidity index that's private and public to liquidity.

31:23You can see it does these wedge patterns. Remember that alt season chart and the wedge patterns? Same pattern, by the way, kids. Oh, it's liquidity. Yeah, the everything code told you that. I told you all of this stuff. And every time it happens, every time it breaks out, which it's done, the market breaks out. So exactly the right timing. Everything looks good. This, I think, is the fucking money shot. We produce charts that everybody else in the world copies. Honestly, a global macro investor, and in Real Vision pro-macro, we do more macro crypto research and more in-depth macro crypto research than anybody else in the world.

32:03We have definitely changed the landscape of how people think about this stuff from the work that Julian and I have done. I'm immensely proud of it. Not blowing my own trumpet, but Metcalfe's Law, the global liquidity stuff, all of this stuff has come from us. And it's been And it's been amazing. I don't know how this happened, where we found this everything code, how we found a lot of this stuff, but we found it and we keep finding new stuff. Here's the money shot, kids. This is the chart that you need to just sit back, chill the fuck out. I'm just going to let you marvel in that beauty.

32:46You see it?

32:51liquidity is everything kids

32:56bitcoin is exactly following total liquidity and it says we keep going into the end of the year could be something to do with the yellow fruit i don't know who's to say that we don't mention it we don't talk about it we summon it by wearing it we'll come on to that in a minute Okay, so that's that.

33:25Julian's showing the same chart that I showed earlier. It's like, chill the fuck out, people. This thing is ripe. Weekly Bollinger Bands, that's tight there's ever been. Every time that happens, yellow fruit tend to occur. They tend to ripen pretty fast. I'm flipping through charts. The chart that we did have in the past that is not working perfectly is like, ETH this time versus last time. The Bitcoin version is actually better. The ETH version, yeah, ETH is trading like a piece of shit.

33:59It's just lost its narrative. I actually think they've overbuilt blockchain capacity for the demands of the chain via the layer twos. Overbuilding blockchain capacity, I think, was a calculated move in terms of a longer-term future for the chain. I actually am not long-term negative over it. I just think, yeah, they've got excess capacity right now for the market. And, I mean, ETH is the big daddy of smart contract platforms. I mean, there's still all the developer talent applications, the finance sector will build on it. It's all still there for ETH. The story's still there. But I think they've built a bit of excess capacity as they've scaled it using Vitalik's scale model.

34:45model, and we'll find out whether it was right or wrong to do that. I actually think it might work. I think it might pay off, that by doing what they did today means that it's a multi-trillion dollar blockchain in the future. But let's see. Let's see. The other one's a killer chart, is ETH today versus Bitcoin back in the previous cycles. It's following it so beautifully. It kind of looks like it's in catch-up mode to come. Sorry, I'm just going to... It's not bad. I've refilled the glass. It's 5.39. It's 40 minutes. I mean, before I was doing every 20 minutes, remember, in the previous show. Although it's a large glass of wine.

35:34So Bitcoin ETH, generally directionally right, right? There's nothing really you want to concern yourself over. presidential election years maybe really cares who gets elected because the market goes up now i think a trump victory probably extent may extend the cycle um in terms of magnitude but the amplitude is probably the same i it just goes up um and it's from this period end of October, really. That period now is like the correction we're having today. Think about that. And then the rest looks kind of like something down there. You know what I'm talking about.

36:23Think of a boring chart. Boring chart.

36:30Business cycle. Those of you who are not crypto people here, the business cycle. The interest rate market, how it's moved, is indicating the ISM, the business cycle for manufacturing, is about to rise. That will paper over a lot of sins. It will allow a lot of cyclical stocks, commodity plays, all of this to really start working. We're starting to see commodities starting to work. Really, the ISM has yet to turn higher. The next 12 months will be nothing more than the business cycle going up. The business cycle going up will drive all of your favorite stocks and make you all look like investing geniuses.

37:13We are generally all morons. And if the business cycle can make us look like geniuses, we'll take any victory we've got. So I'll take that. It means basically you throw a dart into the stock market and everything goes up when you buy it. So we're at that point. It starts with the growth cycle. the macro summer and macro spring is really all about the growth stocks and the crypto. And then it starts as the macro summer. This is not the summer season. This is the third year of the Everything Code cycle. That's when the cyclical stocks start performing as the ISM has come up. ISM has been really sticky on the lows, right?

37:57Look at this. This pattern we've not seen really. Even then, the 2000s wasn't quite the same. So it's been sluggish. And it's one of the reasons I think the Fed will continue to cut rates. And we're not seeing an inflationary environment. And we'll talk a bit about bonds and stuff in a bit. That's that chart flipping through. General business conditions in the future are going up. New orders expectations going up. ISM, that term in the ISM matters. because guess what? When the business cycle goes up, we've all got a bit more money because our businesses are doing better. We might get a pay rise, all of this shit.

38:36And your mortgages are tending to fall. So we're spending less money on our mortgages or our car service payments or whatever it may be. And guess what? Altcoins go up as a percentage of market cap in relation to the business cycle. Everything is the business cycle. This is what I've been trying to tell you. Crypto is macro. Everything's fucking macro. It's all the same thing. You could change altcoins and turn it into small caps in equities, or you can turn it into credit. You can do whatever you want. They're all the same thing. It's all risk. It's all allocation of our liquidity, our capital into markets based on how we feel, which is the business cycle.

39:14So as the business cycle turns up, alt season.

39:22That's that inverse head and shoulders I talked about of alt season. this is um previous bull markets obviously the first bull market we can discount second one 1113 that was wild i was involved in that one that's when i first started investing bitcoin was uh where was i in that one i can't remember bought it 200 got to 2000 was kind of blown away These are the percentage returns. And then, you know, the returns have come down a bit over time, as we can see, as adoption curves. We're right here, right? Kids, it's nothing to worry about. There's nothing to worry about. Literally all normal. So if we can stop the drama, I'd appreciate it.

40:15There's too much of it everywhere. Everyone's just too involved. because the problem is the engaging Twitter accounts, and I follow them too. I'm guilty of this. I like Ansem or any of these people who I follow and like. I've been following Freddy Bull Crypto, who's a long-term bull, but his short-term time horizons are bearish and it could fall from here. Other people are this and that. It's a real skill as an investor. Fuck, we're going to run so out of time. No, over time. Because I'm not going to cut you off. We're going to run so over time. It's 5.45 Cayman time. We're 45 minutes in and we haven't gone to questions yet.

41:02So we're going to run so over time. But what happens is, as a long-term investor, you're kind of just waiting for this. But there's a lot of, oh, my God, it's going down, it's going up. and their time horizon is much shorter. And it fucks with your head. So it's a real skill set to learn. It kind of hurts you when you're hearing, oh, my God, it's going down, it's going up, it's going down, it's going to... And you're forgetting what game you're playing, which is like, I bought it somewhere when it was low in crypto winter or crypto spring, and I'm going to sell out late crypto autumn, and it'll have gone up.

41:4510x, 20x, 30x from then. And that's all I'm doing. I don't actually have to do anything. I was talking to a friend of mine about this. It's like, crypto is so incredible that it's been giving us the same opportunity every four years. And it's like, it's so stupid that it's been so easy. You just buy that big sell-off or add to your positions in the sell-off and do nothing. and everybody who've done that would have made better returns than starting a startup um if you had raised a million bucks for a startup if you just put it in the market instead using that cycle you'd have done better i mean pretty much everything we do everything else is actually diluted and i know people like oh well he's become such a crypto guy he used to be the macro guy he took about oil and dollar yen i'm like i don't give a fuck about that stuff because it doesn't produce 150 % returns a year.

42:41I'm actually trying to unfuck my future and your future. That's what matters to me. It really matters to me. In fact, it bothers me. I was back in England. I was with my closest and oldest friends. I mean, luckily, they've all been pretty successful. Well, that group had been very successful.

43:04But not one of them was investing in anything. and they know I'm into crypto and they kind of respect my opinion. Maybe sometimes, maybe not. But I just can't get them to talk about it or think about it. And yet they'd like talk about the next big house they want to buy and how they need to change their car. The UK cars and houses is the big thing. I'm like, guys, you could have made this all easier for yourselves by just doing some of this stuff. But they kind of can't. I don't know. There's this big stumbling block about investing with some people. The UK is really bad for it, I find. It was a bit depressing going back to the UK, just seeing how underdeveloped the crypto community is.

43:51Or just investing in general. In Europe, investing in general, I mean, nobody does it. In crypto, yeah. If you're a kid in Spain, maybe Italy, maybe France, Portugal probably. certain countries have a higher propensity for more speculative activities the others just like resign themselves to where it's all fucked i'm like guys it doesn't have to be this way you can unfuck your future it's what real vision is all about it's trying to it's trying to do this thing um and part of that is i really would like everybody to realize that if the yellow fruit comes, which as you can see, I've shown the charts.

44:40Is it before the election, after the election? How does it end this month? I don't know. But it's there. I mean, it's there already. But don't fuck this thing up. And then, I've already seen there's people at Real Vision, fuck this thing up. Colleagues. Because what happens is you get taken over by the madness. Ansem, this guy, Murad, they're making 100x. If I made 100x, I could be them. I could be wealthy. And before you know it, that nice bucket of Solana, Ethereum, well, Ethereum's been a dog, but I still own Ethereum via NFTs, Solana, Ethereum, Bitcoin, and maybe you've diversified some racier sui or near or whatever it may be.

45:35And then what happens over time, you creep all that into meme coins. And then you're desperately in the search for the next big one. It's that kind of cocaine hit that you're searching for your next high, the next 50x, oh my God, I got that one early and that one. And then you're buying into this AI narrative. Oh, my God, AI has started a meme revolution and everything in the world has changed. I need to buy this. Before you know it, you're going to get washed out and washed out and washed out. I mean, I'm looking at my 10, 5, 7, whatever, 5 % maybe allocation to memes, which are Church of the Smoking Chicken Fish, which has been correcting recently.

46:23It's still probably well above where I bought it. I did add a significant amount. I've got a decent size in that, really, for me in a meme coin, because I fucking love the community and I love the humor. But who knows? I mean, maybe Lord Fishnu fails and they worship another god, the AI god. I don't think so. I think Lord Fishnu is all-powerful. But certainly do not follow a moron like me into what I do. The other one I have is Doge. I think Doge is the alt cycle. I think it does it really well. I think Elon even calling the bloody government thing that he wants to start does. But let's see. Who knows?

47:10Have I done all right out of my memes?

47:16I probably doubled or tripled my money. Doubled? Tripled, maybe? I don't know. In the last year. I've had no 10Xs, 20Xs, 50Xs, 100Xs. I had one called Gwack. I got out at the right time. It's fallen 99%. A bunch of shit that I looked at. I mean, I've got no edge. Zero edge. I like the church that's smoking chicken fish. I think Doge is actually more of a macro bet. you choose your your um mean get involved just don't do stupid shit please i will never forgive myself if you fuck this up honestly just don't do it and don't go oh my god well i've lost all that money now so i just need to gamble more and then i'll do what you say ral i will go into the the top tokens and I'll chill out.

48:19No, please don't do that. You'll be fine. There's plenty of upside to be had. If you're somewhere between Solana and Sui, you've got five, 10, whatever times your money to make. I mean, Christ, anybody from traditional financial markets, this is like la-la land stuff. And you guys are going, well, unless it's a 50X, I'm not going to do it. You'll be fine. Get some capital together. Understand how to manage it. A place like Real Vision, that really helps you. I'm going to show you something actually about Real Vision that I've not done. I've still not answered any questions. This is going to be a long one.

48:57Sorry, I don't know why I've been bleating on so much.

49:05Hopefully I'm adding some value. I don't know. Maybe I'm not, but just tell me in the questions if I'm adding any value at all. I'm just an idiot. Okay, so going to the Real Vision platform, that's an incredibly handsome man. My hair's a little bit long there. Let's just marvel at how handsome he is. He's probably incredibly smart as well, I would imagine. But let's just go down here to the leaderboard. This is where people put in their trade ideas. Remember I've talked about trade ideas before? We've now got this trading competition that finishes at the end of the month. Old Solana Sphere Capital with his Oklo bet up 146%, which is now closed.

49:50What a killer. David Graham with his MicroStrategies. I think it's a Leverage MicroStrategies, I think it is. And then we've got, I've never even heard of Wolf, digital asset technology company that engaged in, well, anyway, Francisco nailed it, 73%. But what is happening here is on the platform, you can find the reasons. So here's Solana Safir's Capitals. He's got some Oclo trades. Virx, he's done very well. Didn't do so well in Palantir so far. But I can see his reasons for his trades. I can learn how to be better in my decision-making process. So I can learn from the best in the world by going on the Real Vision platform and seeing what people are putting and why they're making money.

50:55So there's some moron down here. This moron put Rocket Labs. What is Rocket Labs? It's a space company building rockets. It's one of the only other, it's about the only listed rocket company. And it's an incredible company. So this moron, Raoul Pal, with a weird name, he puts the idea he's up. He's only 18 in the leaderboard, up 57%.

51:26Oh, he said, it was based on my research in GMI. It was also in pro macro. But you have people's research ideas are here. Somebody's got Doge in there. You can't buy groceries on Mars without Doge coins. Love that. That is part of my view. That's mimetics, left curve, which is actually right curve. Vlad, that is a genius answer, by the way. And those of you who don't know what I'm talking about, it's a joke, but it actually means a lot about Elon, system of currencies, how you operate outside of a sovereign world or global world and how you can capture money and all of this stuff. It's very, it's actually, that's brilliant, Vlad.

52:09I love that. In fact, I'm going to give it a thumbs up and tell you I love it.

52:17Love this thesis.

52:24Okay. I'll stop sharing that stuff now. So anyway, that's, I want you to learn from each other. I want you to get better. You've got to unfuck your futures, all of you. And I'm trying to help with that. So that's what I'm trying to do. The other thing is, if you don't want to fuck this up and you want to summon the unnamed yellow fruit, then, Nick, if you can bring up the merch store. Here is the merch store. You go to the Real Vision platform, or I think it's shop.realvision.com. I think is the link. I don't know. But on the Real Vision platform, shop.realvision.com. Hey, hell yeah, I got it right.

53:09Somebody's going to be proud of me. But if you're on the platform, it's even easier. Just go to the icon on the left of a T-shirt, click on that. It pops up. The Real Vision merch is cool as shit. I wore it across London and Paris. I was at like the ledger event in Paris with all the cool kids. But everyone wanted my bananas. Oh, no. Oh, no. I've mentioned the yellow fruit. hopefully I didn't finish the word that we probably get away with it, but I wore my, my hoodie with this. In fact, I've got two versions of them and everybody stopped me. I got stopped in the street for it. Hilarious. Also, I've got the don't fuck this up ones.

53:49They're really cool as well. I've got the don't fuck this up t-shirt. I've got the don't fuck this up hoodie. I've got a don't fuck this up black t-shirt with the kind of computer graphic stuff. and I've seen a lot of people with a DFTU hat. When I went to the Real Vision meetup in London, the RVIP meetup in London, people are wearing this merch, and I love this shit. But if you want to summon the yellow fruit, you need to buy the yellow fruit merch. So Nick, can you just go back to show the yellow fruit merch?

54:32i mean i love one of the hoodies has yellow fruit down the sleeves like a sergeant stripes three stripes stuff like that it's just really good so i urge you to buy the yellow fruit to summon it i went to the fucking heart the source of the bananas that this is the issue this is the issue kids this is why we don't drink wine why we don't drink wine oh god we're gonna have to have another sell-off it's my fault i'm so sorry just forgive me i tried really hard i didn't do it i went to the source of the yellow fruit zone for you guys um in fact let me just i think i've got i'm just gonna really annoy nick he's like oh god ral stop doing this.

55:26I just want to remind you.

55:32So I went to the source of the yellow fruit zone for you. I had to battle with lions, leopards, hippos. I had to negotiate with the baboon chiefs. I had to talk to the elephant leaders to say, release the yellow fruit. The least you fuckers can do is to summon the yellow fruit by the merch. and also join realvision.com. Actually, that's Chris Nyers. I just get a message on Slack from Chris Nyers. Chris runs the RVIP community. He's one of our community members. He's chairman of RVIP, which is our super exclusive community. He goes, Raoul, you're a total mess. Really? Is that what you're telling me?

56:36Right, I've not answered any questions. I'm going to have to do questions in speed time. I'm probably a total mess. Right. Questions. Raphael McEnroe, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Yeah. Ryan Byrd, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Do you think a bond crisis might unfold in the near term? Feels like bond markets might clue this. I don't think so. I think the bonds and the dollar are the key macro variable right now. Generally speaking, after the first cut, everyone gets over their ski tips. The market gets over positioned. It corrects. I think it's nothing more than that, but I could be wrong. So I think it went further than expected because market overposition, the Fed delivered, everyone takes profits.

57:22Oh, my God, everyone gets squeezed. And then what happens is bond yields rise, prices fall, the dollar rises, and then the US issues like$500 billion of new debt. Market's not quite happy to take that. I actually think it reverses. William, oh my God, I've got so many questions. I'm so sorry. I'm out of control today. I've not done anything. Nala, I know. You can have some peanuts, okay? Just not ignoring me. That's Nala. You know Nala by now. William, what's the probability that relative to the last liquidity cycle driven in large part by COVID response, this cycle be more muted. Well, William, if you remember, last cycle had the most liquidity of any cycle and it actually had the lowest price rises.

58:21So it's not a measure of the amount of liquidity per se. So I don't think, I'm not concerned by that.

58:32If there was no liquidity globally, the US and there was a question about this from a RVIP member

58:462016-17 cycle had had no US liquidity really but liquidity globally exploded and that was China and a few other places sorry I'm just going to give Nala some more peanuts Nala here you go she's old, deaf and lovely so yeah I don't think it's a direct, it doesn't mean amounts of liquidity, it's kind of as long as liquidity, percentage wise is increasing, I think it's fine

59:20Nicole Pierce question to Raoul, do you have a gold bug analogy that can apply to crypto, explaining gold mining stocks, you have main producers, juniors, prospectors where the main producers are low risk solid reward What a good analogy in crypto be. Bitcoin and Ether main producers, Solana, Cardano, Juniors, Casper, prospectors. This is all a risk curve question. I don't think Juniors are pretty shit on the risk curve. I would not put Solana on that.

59:59Cardano, et cetera, in the Juniors, maybe. I don't want to get into trouble because, Jesus, the Kadana community or the XRP community just hate me every time we say anything, except this is the best coin in the world and we really love this. But don't say that, they hate me. Steve Randall, any chance of a long-form interview with Stan Drucker-Miller or Paul Jones? A, Stan's been on Real Vision. If you guys haven't watched the interview with Stan Drucker-Miller on Real Vision, it's one of the all-time classics. It's not about what his view is today, which is irrelevant. Stan changes his mind. And before you know it, he's out of the trade and he's spoofed you into it.

1:00:37And what you need to understand is how he thinks. The Real Vision interview, just go on the platform, search for Stan Drucker-Miller, you'll see that interview. Paul, I've known Paul a long time. I've known Stan for a while, for a long time.

1:00:51I just won't come on. He's agreed. He's agreed four times to four different people. I can't get him to do it. I'm out of touch with him personally. Now, Novo was the last person to get him to agree to do it. He was going to interview Salas and Adam. Stan and Paul, great story. They're best mates.

1:01:14And I'll never forget, I was at Goldman. And they were both trading spreads of one market versus another. It's because nothing was really happening. So they're looking for Vidalf, and they were trading the CAC-DAX spread. CAC is the French stock market. DAX is the German stock market. and the cactax spread was their trade and I was the broker, I was the European guy I was the main hedge fund salesperson in Europe and Paul was in the trade first because he would look at the technicals of the thing he was in the trade and then he told Stan about it here's the reason you need fundamentals Paul didn't give a shit mainly about the fundamentals he's a charting guy and a flood funds guy so anyway I get this phone call eventually where Paul goes Paul goes yeah I got Stan into the trade.

1:02:00I'm like, oh, that's amazing. So I get the phone call from Soros. Yeah, we want to buy the CACDAX spread, you know, in like X billion dollars. Next minute, I get the call from Tudor like, yeah, okay, if you've got any orders in the CACDAX spread, we'll do the opposite and unwind it. And what he'd done, he broke his best mate into the trade so he could get the liquidity to get out. Genius. Anyway, so those are the games those guys play, and they've played them a lot.

1:02:36Gerald Trueblood, what are your thoughts on a second wave of inflation in the near future? Jim Bianco, Stan Drucker-Miller, blah, blah, blah. The second wave of inflation, I think, is utter fucking bullshit. There will be inflation increasing in 2020, at the back end of 2025, into 2026, because that's what the business cycle does. No, the 1970s are not going to replay again. There is no basis that that will happen. There is also a deep confusion between what is inflation and what is debasement of currency. The biggest issue is debasement of currency, not inflation of basic goods prices. That's driven by cyclical factors, supply and demand factors.

1:03:18So I cover this at length. If you want to go, pro macro, go into that, see it. It's all there for you. It's free, realvision.com. Okay, let's do that again. realvision.com forward slash join. All of my research I've ever written in Real Vision is free for you to go and explore in the next seven days, including my portfolio. So just going to do it. And then you can stop giving me the shit. Oh, yeah, you bought the top in ETH and you did this and you did that and bullshit, bullshit and Luna. And because it's all fucking written down. Every mistake I've made and all of the home runs I've had and all the average trade I've had, it's all there.

1:04:02So that should settle that. Okay, this is 33 minutes. Mike Siskowski, what do you make of Solana breaking out with the rest of the crypto lags today? We covered that before. I'm always suspicious. We need everything to happen.

1:04:21Michael Klum, why haven't they had the WorldCoin CEO or Sam Altman yet? They're on. Bankless in the past year. I haven't seen any interviews of the CEO. I mean, I know them. They're here in Cayman. I just don't have a chance. I'm interested in WorldCoin. Eating with my mouth open. That is uncivilized. Just so you know. Eating with your fingers is acceptable in certain places. Americans who don't use knives. They need to be thrown out of fucking restaurants. I'm sorry. It's a knife and fork. why is this i never forget a harder bloke who worked for me who i took him out for dinner with a bunch of fancy hedge funds in new york he slumped on the table like that and then ate midwest style with a foot i don't know how he even ate his steak he probably stuck it like that i'm like no it's not gonna happen anyway it's enough insulting by americans you can insult of english people they're fucking miserable i'm just in england awful awful um you can sell australians um because they deserve it um who doesn't deserve it spanish people they're lovely italians they're lovely italian americans big big ego uh worship the homeland don't go there um get them trying to live there try and get somebody from from new jersey you know italian in America and New Jersey live in Italy.

1:05:55They'd hate it. They'd be screaming and shouting at everyone, hey, I want my pasta a bit warmer. They'll be throwing out the country.

1:06:05Rui Morris, is ETH the Blackberry of crypto? I don't know. I don't think so.

1:06:15Ali Dadfar, how high do you think Sol, ETH, SUI, Bitcoin will go this cycle? Jamie Coots's research out tomorrow on the platform free Ali you're going to get it answer your questions Marco Salud este Alicante welcome from Alicante Alicante was the province I lived in

1:06:46okay we don't need to do this whole Spanish thing

1:06:52reese dv brother this is a smoking chicken fish thing because we paid in the broth um and we are base and all of the things that go with the smoking where do you see the market cap of smoking chicken fish landing at the peak i don't know maybe it's zero or maybe it's a billion bucks my bet is okay at 100 million market cap wherever it is today 70 million it goes to zero i lose 0.7 and it goes to a billion and I make 10. It's like, that's a great risk reward. So I just go for the risk reward and just hold it and see. If it does anything really weird, yeah, sure, I might get out and protect some of the money I've made.

1:07:32Lost. I'll have lost at that point. I don't know what my average price is, but I don't really think in those terms. I'm not going to puke it for that. Andreas, do you still think it's going to take third lifestyle chips off the table by year end? Even if Bitcoin stays below 70 ,000 and the long yellow fruit zone hasn't started. Michael said he said next year, not this year. I said this year. It's all about price without it being about price. Yeah, I know. I'm inconsistent. I understand that. What I'm trying to say is if it's kind of rallying and it's getting higher, so it's kind of like above 70 ,000, towards 100 ,000 Solanas, maybe back at all-time highs.

1:08:19Just take some money off, start cashing in some lifestyle chips. It doesn't feel like it's the time now, unless you bought Solana at eight. But even then, it still doesn't feel like it's the time. But again, I don't want to be too cute, because if we all wait too long, you know how it works. If we all wait too long, it tops earlier. if we all do it early it then explodes giga X from here so we're never going to win so I don't expect to win I basically haven't got enough money in my account to do some of the big lifestyle chips I want to do so I'll just wait oh my god the other part of the comment section Timothy Harris, Ralph Apes

1:09:08no, I haven't had the nicotine addiction since the age of 14. That'd be a lie. I don't know why people say these things. It's not a blunt either. It's a mango nicotine. Yeah, it's not good. You can tell me off. Okay, no, it's not a spliff. I actually don't like weed. Okay, oh my God. I didn't realize so many questions. We're now 14 minutes over time. Bill Foster, don't diss pork rinds. Bill, being a person who actually, when I want to lose a bit of weight, which I'm doing now after Africa of eating shit in a Toyota Land Cruiser or whatever it was, Hilux, I'm back on keto. Pork rinds, I love. They're fantastic.

1:10:00Salty, crunchy, amazing. In fact, I will do that one time. Usually I do it better over in Little Cayman, but I will do some pork rinds for you at some point because they are massively underrated. Not the shit you buy in a bag, but make them yourself. It's just incredible. Somebody's wearing their yellow fruit hammock. Nice. Anna Burrito. It's not a burrito. Burrito. Anna de Burrito. Sui. Sui's great. It's fine. Charp, just correcting. Stock market, Mike. Love consolidation patterns. Yeah, I do too, actually, because it generally gives power to the next one.

1:10:41Timothy Oldinger, I thought the one-hour chart was for zooming out from the one minute and the 15-minute chart. Yeah, you need help, my friend.

1:10:57Okay, I need to move down. We've got so many questions. Ben Anderson, I'm in the UK and all everybody cares about is cars and houses. China have been orange pill people for years, and nothing has come from it. Yeah, Ben, I agree. I agree. I spoke at the Zibu Live event. That whole atmosphere is different. There's not really many amazing builders, few good hedge funds in the UK. It's like a really niche, not great industry in the UK. And it's a shame. It deserves to be better, and the UK deserves to be better than it is. And people just, investors don't care. They don't care. yet they want to complain all day about how shit the lives are, but I can't get them to invest.

1:11:40They're so cynical. Europe is a continent of call spread buyers. They see everything capped upside. Whether the US and Asia tend to be call option buyers, they see all upside. A lot of that is a function of World War II and World War I. It's not deeper than you think, but a lot of people in Europe lost the ultimate optimism because you had the ultimate catastrophe. It's a story to get a thing, but World War II and World War I have really, really big implications for people in Europe. You can't understand when every country around you is being invaded or killing each other on a scale of unimaginable destruction.

1:12:30People talk about other wars. They have no fucking clue what World War II is, what it was like for my mother's generation or whatever.

1:12:43Bradman, what are your thoughts on Drucker Miller's current investment thesis based on his expectation Fed rates higher for longer? I think he nailed the bet to the fucking day. Talked with Andreas yesterday.

1:13:02who knows whether Stan's out of his bond trade or not. I mean, I know Stan's trade. I've seen his trades. They can be very fast. So, well, Jones talked about inflation. I think there's inflation, monetary inflation, there's the CPI inflation, monetary inflation debasement. I think Paul's right. That's the everything code thesis. We read Paul's thing. It's basically the everything code.

1:13:41Ah, Theo Cain, 551. I'm not that far behind, 20 minutes. Hi, Raoul. Respectful fellow crypto punks and visionaries. Joining him with a glass of superior Santorini's...

1:14:00Acetico. Acetico. Acetico. Acetico. White wine with a delicate Croatian almonds. Croatian almonds. Love it. Greek culture. Love it. Santorini and Crete. You've got two islands there. Very nice. Neil Spraylor. Memes is too risky for its pocket money like a gamble, nothing more. Yeah, that's fine. I think actually some people know how to trade those markets. Like some people are actually good at sports betting and stuff. I'm not.

1:14:44AlexVDM, SCFX page is dead. Is the project still there? Yeah, what happened was the bloke who was running it, who started it, ended up being a total douchebag and a bit of a scammer. The community beautifully threw him out, cast him out from their religion, and he kept the page, and they're trying to win it back from X. But no, it is real. It's all fine. it's actually super vibrant and again I bought into that community late I bought everything myself I've never been given an incentive it is just for the fucking fun of it because I love it

1:15:31Oliver M I love to eat a yellow fruit split right now Oliver I told you not to fuck this up you don't mention the fruit why are you doing that just trying to be a dick Oliver I want you to answer in the question why you've done that. Why are you mentioning the yellow fruit when I specifically ask you not to? Do I have to ban you from the platform? Or do you have to go to the merch store and buy five pieces of merch as a way of forgiving yourself and then maybe beg Lord Fishnu for forgiveness? I think you need to do that. um christian where do you see salt and sweet prices in six month fire look no point trying to trap me into this is a stupid game christian you trap me into asking telling you oh well i think it might be at x dollars then when it's not at x dollars you go on twitter and go you fucking bastard you told it was going to be x you were such a moron i can't do that it's just not fair for me right it's just not fair for me to do that i'm just not going to do that get that game anymore because people just abused what i try and do which is probabilistic outcomes and analysis and just yes i'm a bit scarred and i've talked about from every time i've done this i'm a bit scarred from um from from how people suddenly turn from ral's a guru to ral's awful i'm not i'm the same person.

1:17:01I'm just Raoul. He's probably drunk too much wine on this feed, rambled on too long, eaten with his mouth open, insulted everybody, because he probably deserve it. I'm just a normal bloke, and I don't need the fucking downside from all of this shit. I'm just trying to help you. Okay. We are going to have to wrap up, because 7.30 in the US, and Nick has got kids and a wife. Bulgaria. He's now in Florida. So I know he's probably going to a strip club. No, he's married. He's married or got a girlfriend. I don't know. But people on the feed.

1:17:42Nala's getting some wonderful peanuts. Yeah, Timothy, she is. Although not enough. So she's a little bit pissy with me. Okay, I'm going to go right to the bottom of the section.

1:17:57There's questions, deepest stuff, questions on meme coins. I think today is not the day because I completely fucked up this entire live feed by A, talking too much, B, rambling too much, C, drinking too much wine and having too much fun. So listen, I'm going to leave it there. I've had a lot of fun. You've had a lot of fun. I've given you as much alpha as I can possibly give you. I'm trying to help you unfuck your future. Real Vision is all about unfucking your future. I know people go, stop plugging Real Vision. I'm like, for fuck's sake, I'm trying to help you, as we all are.

1:18:37And, yeah, I'm trying to help you in as many ways as I can, but I'm on the journey with you. We all are. Our hopes and dreams are in all of this. Our hopes and dreams are in the yellow fruit. But it's based on an enormous amount of research and everything else. But it's not all about that. There's all of the macro. There's all of the opportunities. And then there's life itself. Life is an incredible journey. That's why I talk about wine. Jesus, I'm now a little further in than I should be. Life is about the journey. It's about the adventure. It's about the joy. It's about the pain. You will go through ups and downs.

1:19:21You won't get everything right. But ride the big wave, and the big wave in macro, in investing, is technology and crypto. Don't overcomplicate it. Don't overtrade it. Go out, see the world, taste the wines, eat the foods, break the bread with people. Stop fighting over stupid shit about politics and realize the world is an incredible and beautiful place. And we should be truly thankful. And yes, we might have six years before the economic singularity arise. We're seeing the rise of the AI mean coins and all sorts of shit. AI mean coins meaning AI building them. I've been following this whole journey.

1:20:10That's a story for another day. The economic singularity is coming. Yes, we have pressure for us all to make money. And, you know, again, going to keep plugging this because we do it on purpose. It's Real Vision, Pro Macro, Pro Crypto, all the paid tiers. They're all there for this journey. But outside of all of that, the world is a beautiful place. You have one life, as far as we know. You may be part of a larger collective consciousness or universal consciousness, but we have one life. Live it, my friends. Until next time.

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