Drinks with Raoul (Round 14): Is Alt-Season Canceled?

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27:44So, the business cycle.

27:49I've talked about this a lot. if you can simplify everything at this point in the cycle, it's about the dollar. When the dollar weakens, liquidity conditions will increase and the world will be a better place and your bags will go up. Whatever bags you hold, literally, literally anything. And so what we are doing is repeating the Trump cycle from 2017. Trump came in, the dollar had been going up, everyone was freaking out about tariffs, their inflationary rates have been going up. Trump comes in and says, I want a weaker dollar, and rates went down all the way through, even though the Fed were raising rates.

28:29We're seeing the same thing today. It's mirroring it. The dollar will weaken. It's very important the dollar weakens because the dollar is the liquidity provision for the entire system. And it's the dollar that drives global end too that you guys know about. So I'm just going to I pour myself that fresh glass. Feel free to pour yourselves a glass while you're going through this because there's quite a few charts to get through, and they're important. There's nothing like a glass of champagne to focus one's mind. Okay, so Global M2 is following the exact pattern. I've gone through these charts before, but you guys have memories of a goldfish, or you just panic and forget everything I've ever told you.

29:11So I'm trying to anchor you on some understanding, which is a tough ask frankly but i'm doing my best um and julian went through these as well so it's not like the first time you've seen them but you'll act like it is and you're like oh my god that's amazing and i've showed you these charts like 16 times before global m2 last time this time same pattern that is the same pattern as the dollar it should all play out the same way global m2 is the is is a good proxy for global liquidity which means number go up the other thing that people get very confused about is they're like, well, what happens if the Fed don't cut much more?

29:50I don't care. What happens if rates don't go down a lot? I don't care. What happens if they don't drain the Treasury General account? I don't care. You've got to understand the global picture is the big picture. And the global picture, like 2017, will most likely be driven by China. I think the US will stimulate, but China is the big one. Chinese bond yields are now at 1 % or somewhere close to it. They have run out of runway. And what is running out of runway? Jay Powell told you today, running out of runway, i.e. no rates to cut, means QE baby and more cowbell. the Chinese have a I think I think when I looked at the calculation in my Excel I think I got to they need a fuck ton of QT QE to do so yeah I think the calculation was a fuck ton they have to print money like crazy why?

30:52they have an aging population massive debts they need to service their debts everybody's in the same boat this my friends is the everything code I've bleated on forever about it You kind of half get it. It's the fact that the only way of servicing the debts is to debase the currency. And the Chinese will do a lot of debasing. However, they can't do it until Trump beats them over the head with the strong dollar, which is happening today, and saying, you will agree our tariffs, which is happening right now. And when they agree the tariffs, he will say, I'll give you the carrot after the stick. The carrot is a weaker dollar.

31:29He did that in 2017. He will do it again now. The weaker dollar plus the lack of spending from Doge, i.e. the lowering of spending, will mean that rates come down as well. And what we get is the banana zone, the next phase. It is all to play for. There is nothing else going on. There is nothing to panic about. There is nothing wrong. It is all a piece of beauty. Global M2, every time we get to this point, it comes, it breaks out, it retests, it goes higher. We're exactly at the right point where this should happen again. Next phase, Global M2 going up the weaker dollar. There's Global M2 and Bitcoin.

32:07Oh my God, I hear you say, because I hear you all the time. Oh my God, oh my God, oh my God, panic, panic, panic. Is it going to 70 ,000? Are we all going to die? What am I going to do? No, no, no. In 2017, it went down 28 % in five days, and then it kind of sideways chopped and then rallied. it will decouple from this chart going forwards from here. That I will give a high probability, a 7 % probability. The low is in. It will decouple, and eventually it will go. The next phase will be alt season. Again, I hear all of the bullshit on Twitter. Alt season has canceled. There's too many tokens. It's never going to happen.

32:53Everything's changed. the ETF, la, la, la, la, la, la, la, la. Not true. It will happen. It may not take your bags higher, but that's because you're a shitty asset allocator and you need to do better job. So, you know, we've all got our failures. I mean, I've got a few things in my wallet that are down enormously and I pretend that I don't see them because they're only in my small bag, which was like less than 5 % in mine. So I don't really care. Global M2 versus Bitcoin. Every time it breaks out, Bitcoin breaks higher, obviously. So we've talked about that before. We've done that chart. We're on that chart.

33:35The business cycle is picking up. New orders are screaming higher. The business cycle is the driver of global earnings. Global earnings get recycled into risk. Recycling into risk means risk assets like small-capped stocks through to commodities, through to alts in crypto, go higher. The business cycle has only just started. A number above 50 for the ISM is expansion of the business cycle. We've just had our first print since God knows when of this going on the upside through 50. Last time was 2021, 2020. 2020. So we've got the cycle to play out. We are nowhere near the peak in the cycle, which I'll come to in a sec.

34:21New orders, less inventory. This is a three-month lead, screaming even higher. The business cycle is going to pick up fast. And financial conditions, the dollar, oil, rates, they say, well, it should go to at least 55.6, but that would be low for the ISM because guess what? We think the dollar goes lower, rates go lower, and oil goes lower. So that should push this up into the 60s, which extends the cycle further. So we are at least nine months away from a cycle peak. So it is very interesting where we are. It is all very positive. When we look at the overbought, oversold indicator of where we are in the cycle with crypto, we're nowhere near overbought.

35:08We're just starting. Bitcoin, every time the ISM peaks, Bitcoin peaks. When the ISM breaks 50, Bitcoin accelerates. We are at the acceleration phase, not the peaking phase. Anybody who tells you otherwise is a fucking moron.

35:32so we're at the acceleration phase we've got liquidity coming the ism is not going to peak until the end of the year maybe even into 2026 there is nothing literally nothing to concern yourself here's the ism and a kind of detrended some fancy thing that julian does with this um It gives you a pricing model of Bitcoin. I mean, if the ISM goes up to 60, where it should be going, and we're talking Bitcoin in the 250, 350, whatever thousand level, we ain't even started. Oh, and altcoins will outperform Bitcoin. Here's altcoins' percentage of total market cap. Now, I've shown you this chart maybe 58 billion times, and you forget it every time.

36:19I don't know what drugs you guys are taking, but maybe a little less. So to increase your memory bandwidth would be somewhat helpful to me because it's tiring to show you the trading chart and you forget it every second. So what we have here is altcoins as a percentage of Bitcoin total market cap. As the ISM goes up, people go out the risk curve. Sorry, speaking with a mouth full. That is not actually very civilized. I get it. I'll probably start vaping later and you can insult me for that as well. oh it's true so good they're so well with champagne um so basically we just crossed 50 in the ism that doesn't mean instant alt season right now give me my alts where's banana zone banana zone's not happening the banana zone's failed you've slipped on the banana skin shut the fuck up it takes time it'll all play out as the ism accelerates altcoins will accelerate Right.

37:21So inflation, that's the other thing. Oh my God, inflation is coming back. It's going to be the seventies again. I know. I hear these narratives from you guys because I see it all over Twitter. I see you messaging me on the Real Vision platform. I see you talking to each other on the Real Vision platform. And I just hear these voices. I'm like, where are you getting this from? I don't understand. You're listening to some random crappy macro guys, never run a portfolio, telling you something, and you're like, see, he said it, he said it, inflation's coming back, we're all going to lose money. I get it, we've all got our net worth in this entire fucking trade, we want it to work.

37:56Please, please, please, just focus. So, wages. Wage tracker growth going lower. Therefore, we will not see wages increasing for a while. If at all, depending whether AI breaks it entirely. I ain't concerned about that. Oh, home prices. Well, home prices are a massive drag because there's a 17-month leave. So home prices will be bringing down CPI shelter, which is the largest part of CPI. If the largest part of core CPI shelter, it ain't going up. When rates go down, guess what? Owner equivalents rents come down, and that drags down CPI. Look at the Cleveland New Tenant Rent Index, three-quarter lead.

38:48It's puking. It's gone below zero. There is no inflation, my friends. Let's take away shelter and look at all items less shelter because shelter's the lagging one, 1.9%. I mean, really, dudes? And then we'd use the Mount Fuji chart of truth that Julian and I have been using forever. Like we take all the inflation episodes, the major inflation episodes, compare them to this one, and guess what? Inflation is coming lower. So we will get cyclical inflation later in the thing. There's nothing structural. We're not going back to the 1970s. None of that's going to happen. Literally none of that's going to happen.

39:27Tariffs are not inflationary. It wasn't inflationary last time. It won't be this time. None of that is going to happen. It'll just be a pretty ordinary cycle. So that tells me dips are for buying.

39:41the cycle top again all the fucking noise on x the cycle top is the top it isn't topped early oh my god it's the worst it's i'm so scared i'm so scared we're nowhere near um the core risk indicator are we overbought no nowhere near um bitcoin valuation model are we overvalued uh no nowhere near uh let's have a look at it versus the 2017 cycle are we near the top no no we're fucking near. Are we going to follow this exactly? No. Are we going to do decently based on this? I think so. I think it's going to rhyme more than people expect, and we will have a stronger cycle than people expect. The Nasdaq, for those of you who still bother to trade equities, which I know some of you do, is following the same pattern.

40:28It's all like a rerun of the previous Trump, because he's got the same policies, basically, apart from with the new text dimness. So let's go back. Again, Julian talked about this in his presentation, but I want to hammer it home and hammer it home to you. You guys all have PTSD from the last cycle. It finished early. Is it going to happen again? Am I going to lose my money? Am I going to round trip all my gains? Will I die? Will I have to drink Bud Light for the rest of my life? or can I drink champagne? All of these stories. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. The orange zone market goes higher, right?

41:09But it didn't really in 2021. Well, what happened in 2021? Oh, the ISM peaked. Do you remember? Raoul told you a minute ago when the ISM peaks is when you need to be worried. Oh, oh yes, the ISM peaked in March 2020, 2021. previously it peaked in january february 2018 guess what that's what eth peaked um also 2013 it works every time and where are we now oh we're at the bottom of the ism oh how silly of me to be worried about the is about the market peaking for fuck's sake people and so um i don't even know what this chart is. Oh, yeah, from the halving. We've only done, is it from the halving or from the low?

42:04We've only done an 8x from the low. We did an 85x and a 46x. We only started. Liquidity, as I said, peaked in March 2021. We're now negative currently by this measure of liquidity. if i use the global m2 we're just positive but we're nowhere near there to be a liquidity peak as we said the ism peaked march 2021 so let's look at it that was what was happening in march 2021 look at that financial conditions were falling and the ism well it it a peaked over 60 And let's look at the current one now. You ready, kids? The opposite. It's bottoming. And the green, the financial conditions index, would be going the other way.

42:59And the last time we did this, it went up a lot, blah, blah, blah. This is the chart. Again, everyone's like, where's my banana zone? It's failed. It's like the banana zone is a period of time and a price action that is nuanced because it goes in bursts and then corrections. So the banana zone started from September onwards last year. The market came up and did what it did every single time. The correction after banana zone phase one. So correction phase. Then banana zone phase two kicks in and it goes fucking la la. It goes bananas. Then guess what? Correction phase two fits in. And then we go to the final blow off top.

43:48And you've got to be embarrassed. You've got to be embarrassed from all of your complaining when you look at that chart. And look at how small that squiggle is for the correction phase. You've got to be embarrassed. Oh, no, I forgot. You bought AI tokens and they've gone down 90%. I did try to tell you. I gave you the don't fuck this up thesis. If you could follow it, don't use leverage. Generally have 90 % of your portfolio in the top five cryptocurrencies of your choice. You're generally fine. You're generally fine. Don't FOMO. Don't do stupid shit. Don't get hacked. Store your stuff carefully.

44:31And you'll be fine. But no, no, most people didn't. So let's give a few charts to love because we're kind of going into Valentine's Day. I'll talk about Valentine's Day in a bit. But there are some charts to love when you step back and stop all of the noise. Because there's the Bitcoin chart. It broke out of a wedge. It's been slip sliding down the little slope of that wedge, unwinding its overboard, ready for the phase two of the Panama Zone. ETH. that weekly eth chart is a killer chart that's a beautiful pattern i don't know you've all given up on eth is it's never going to go up again it's terrible it's the worst thing ever the eth community and vitalik save us uh just shut up it'll be fine will it outperform solana no will it do very well i'm sure it will ETH to me over-skirtle.

45:28What are we doing? We're about half a ball limb. As you can tell, the swearing and the general insulting is increasing. I apologise for that. I'm actually a nice person.

45:41I'm trying to believe. Okay. So generally I think they've overbuilt block space. That's the basic problem with the layer twos and crushing of the fees. But once the financial system builds on ETH, I think we'll be fine. So I think the financial system will build on ETH like they used Microsoft. All right, we don't really have a choice. It's the most lindy, it's the most secure, got the most devs, it's the most understood. ETH Bitcoin cross, I know I've tried this many times, but I honestly believe that this is either a wedge or a sideways consolidation and it will be fine. alt season is generally eth over bitcoin if also altcoin season is starting bitcoin dominance should fall eth should rise against bitcoin um and again i'm kind of not worried um solana versus the us dollar broke out the wedge retest up new high back down all fine bit of a sloppy chart pattern but in the bigger picture it's a killer I mean look at that top and handle test the highs next breakthrough this will be the move through a thousand simple as that Solana looks beautiful

47:04Solana versus ETH should keep outperforming ETH so that's the risk curve I've talked about ETH outperforms Bitcoin Bitcoin Solana outperforms ETH and then we go to uh, sold Bitcoin. That should break higher too. That'll be the next leg, which will be alt season. And then we've got Sui, which is the stronger token earlier, slightly riskier. Um, and, um, Sui. And again, just because you guys are going to snapshot this and he's pumping his own bag. Yes, I am. I'm on the foundation, but actually the majority of my crypto liquid crypto, is in Sui now. And I'm looking for the fucking sweatshirt to go 100%, which I don't recommend for most people.

47:52I don't. And it scares the shit out of the Sui board when I tell them that, because then it's all their fault, and I can blame them. And that's not with any inside information, honestly. I'm telling you, it's nothing. It's because of this fucking chart. So that is a beautiful inverse head and shoulders base, retested the base. I did a big amount of switching. I will do more. And I think that it should outperform over time. So I'm just trying to bet on the fastest horse. I'm just a profit maxi, trying to create the most wealth I can for myself and family and everybody else. Deep book, the liquidity layer to SUI.

48:34I've talked about this before. It's been a recommendation. It has done very well. It's like SUI beta. and it looks again like it's forming a wedge. Another beautiful chart. Deep Book versus Sui. Seems to be doing the same kind of thing. That looks great. Doge, the king of all cryptocurrencies. I'll come on to this point and say it.

49:01That chart is killer. These are altcoin seasons. This is the risk curve. Doge is such a beautiful chart every time. And here's the money shot, the greatest chart of all time, and maybe the most hilarious chart of all time, is that Doge has outperformed Bitcoin by 500 % since inception. And if we break from here higher versus Bitcoin, Doge will be the hardest money on the galaxy, and Bitcoin will not be. And I think that would be the most hilarious outcome in all of crypto, that Doge ends up being the hardest money ever created. And I'm rooting for that. I'm going to have some Doge. I just think it will be fucking hilarious.

49:46I can't believe what the Bitcoin maxis will say when you just say, well, yeah, the Dogecoin standard, that's what it's all about. And we'll have new kind of Dogecoin maxis who are bullying everybody else on Twitter because they didn't see the Dogecoin standard. So that's what I'm looking at there. So hopefully I've added some alpha. Julian, lighter than me, puts thanks. I just say, listen, can you actually listen to this stuff sometimes and stop asking me the same questions on Twitter every single day or on the Real Vision platform? So let's take a quick pause. I've been talking a lot. So I'm just going to take a quick pause.

50:23I've got a nicotine.

50:30Right. How long have I been... Oh, I've been going 50 minutes. I've been having started questions and I haven't gone to the next bit.

50:41So, I'm going to answer questions. I'll only answer them on the Real Vision platform. So you fucking freeloaders on X and YouTube, there's no love from me. Zero. Realvision.com forward slash join is free. It will help you unfuck your future. I've spent 10 years, 11 years of my life doing this for you. I would be really honored if you come across. but here is the horrible dirty secret is i actually love you and because i love you i have negotiated well i haven't told anybody i'm just going rogue that every single person in the free tier real vision or cotton or slash join or those of you who are already there will get from valentine's day on the 14th you'll get free access to real vision plus and I'll show you why that's cool in a second.

51:37But you will get free access for two weeks until the end of the month. Just part of just being on free. And that's my Valentine's gift to you because I love you. Now I'm going to show why it's cool. And I know some of you like, oh, don't show me the pitch or I'm already a Real Vision Pro member or RVIP member. I get it. Our job, my job is to bring as many people on this journey as possible and help them. so forgive me if I'm pitching this to people because it is fucking important to me okay so thank you okay so I'm going to bring up Real Vision now and share a screen

52:16okay so those of you who haven't been on the oh have I crashed the platform already so no so those of you who haven't been on the platform it's videos, amazing people amazing content written reports handsome men beautiful women more handsome men intelligent conversations not so handsome man that kind of stuff we also have the ability to message the community we've got this incredible global community in about 120 countries where you can go through and I want to find whoever this member is in Oklahoma let's go into Oklahoma City Norman in Oklahoma has nine members in Norman I'm going to go to Norman and we can see who they are.

53:03Anyway, without sharing people or doxing people, you can network, talk to people, talk to people in different channels, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, Melbourne, London, New York, macro, crypto, everything. But what I want to show you is this. Cooler shit, the trade ideas. When you get into plus, you get to see the trade ideas, which everybody can, but you get to find out what they are and why they are. You get to read the whole trade idea. Sorry, there's so many of you on the platform. And literally, when I do these, it breaks the platform every time because there's so many people come through.

53:38But what we have is thousands of trade ideas from members. And this is embarrassing now. There we go. Thousands of trade ideas from members around the world. This is user-generated content where they have taken the informational value of the Real Vision network and turned it into alpha for other members. So if I say I'm in this ludicrous 13 ,000 % return, but let's take Joe Bland. Joe is fantastic. Let's go find out who Joe is first. So Joe is a plus member. He's been a member since 22. He's got 49 followers. He's from Scotland and the UK, and he has 19 different trade ideas. And most of them, the ones that are down, down small, the ones that are big are up fucking enormous.

54:37So Joe is somebody to follow. So I follow Joe. But we want to find out what this RGT idea is. Well, it tells you what it is, but if I click on it, it actually brings up Joe's thesis on the trade idea. Sorry, the platform is so slow because we've broken it with all of you guys on it. It will show you what the trade idea is, why he did it, everything. And we can filter it by trades that are live, trades that are not live, what's moving, and there'll be much more coming. You get this as part of plus. You also get the amazing work from Julian Patel, this guy here with the slightly bouffant hair and the copycat beard, which is the macro investing tool, which will literally change your life.

55:26It will literally change your life in understanding how to make money from macro. And it's just free as part of your membership as a plus member. Anyway, you get all of this for free. I'm giving it all for free because I love you. I won't bore you on the platform, realvision.com forward slash join. There's so much fucking alpha here. It will change your life. I keep telling this to you. you don't listen because you're on YouTube or you're on X and just can't be bothered to press a button. I'm doing my best for you. Okay. Right. I'm going to go across to the platform now and answer questions. Obviously, if you've just joined, just say, hey, I've just joined and I will say hello or I'll try not to ignore you.

56:07Let's do my best. So let me bring this up and start answering questions from the platform.

56:19oh oh i've just the noise in my ear is if you fill out the survey that's coming anybody you get 14 days of all access that's every fucking thing we do so that's my reports in pro macro jamie coops's report pro crypto that is literally everything it's everything in the plus tier everything in the free tier the whole goddamn lot if you fill out the survey pro all access oh just all access uh so i didn't know that actually so that is an incredible thing to do just do it all access is a six and a half thousand dollar a year product so knock your socks off kids you can go back also the hackers you can go back and see everything you see my trade ideas you see the portfolio how i've done how andrea steno larson's done um you know you can read all of their research it's cool as shit so right that's enough of that shit let's get on to questions i just now need to pull up the platform and find questions let me see if i can do this without screwing this up uh oh by the way by the way by the fucking way you don't need to hate pester me sorry i'm going to share my screen you you you simply don't need to pester me anymore.

57:43Share this. Get rid of that. I want to show you something cool as shit. You don't know this yet, but when you log onto the platform, a RAL PAL avatar comes in, a AI avatar called the PAL avatar, and reads you the news. The AI generated news. Every morning. It's me, but it's not me. And on Fridays, I have a glass of wine. However, here's cool as shit. that image of me is actually my ai it is my llm trained on me in my voice trained on my twitter feed and all of my free content not global macro investor content and i can talk to it and i'm going to talk to me now let me ask a question this is cool as shit and you get a whole bunch of this for free.

58:33Just come, you just need to be a paying member and you get this. Let's call me. Nobody else has got this shit. It's only on Real Vision. Hey there, I'm Rebel Pal. How can I help? Listen, I'm drinking champagne with, I don't know, 120 ,000 people currently on a live stream. What champagne should I drink?

58:59Well, first off, that sounds absolutely bananas. Cheers to you and your 120 ,000 friends. Now, if you're going for champagne, you've got to do it right. Personally, I'm a massive fan of cava from Spain. It's made in the same traditional method as champagne, but it's cleaner, crisper, and doesn't have all the over-the-top sweetness or additives you sometimes find in other sparkling wines. Plus, it's got that beautiful balance of acidity and freshness that makes it perfect for a celebration like yours. But if it's actual champagne you're after, go for something classic like a Bollinger or a Krug.

59:31if you're feeling fancy. These are rich, complex, and just scream sophistication. And if you want to keep it light and fun, a rose champagne like Ruinart is always a crowd pleaser. Whatever you choose, make sure it's chilled to perfection and paired with some proper snacks. Maybe some toasted almonds or even a bit of caviar if you're really going for it. So what's it going to be? Classic champagne? Or are you ready to give Carver a shot? I think I'm going to go for champagne today, but I want to know what, if I'm going to drink Bollinger, what cryptocurrency should I buy with it to accompany its elegance?

1:00:09Ah, Bollinger, brilliant choice. It's rich, complex, and just oozes sophistication. Now, if we're pairing that with a cryptocurrency, we've got to match its elegance and depth. I'd say Ethereum is the Bollinger of the crypto world. Why? Because it's not just about the surface level sparkle. It's about the layers underneath. Ethereum is the backbone of decentralized finance, NFTs, and so much more. It's like Bollinger in that it's not just a drink, it's an experience, a statement. But if you're feeling a bit more adventurous, maybe XRP could be your play. It's a bit of a special situation right now with the ongoing legal drama.

1:00:44But I think it's got potential for a positive resolution. It's like a vintage champagne that's been sitting in the cellar, waiting for the right moment to pop. So Bollinger in one hand, Ethereum or XRP in the other. Now that's a pairing worth celebrating. What do you think? I love it. Thank you for your help, Raoul.

1:01:04You're welcome, mate. Enjoy the Bollinger and the Ethereum. Okay. That's fucking wild. And that's all part of the Royal Vision platform. Nobody else has got shit like this. And that's just the start of the journey because the avatar and that are going to merge. So knock your socks off. If you haven't used it on the platform, it's absolutely hilarious. Right. I'm going to go to the uh i'm going to start stop sharing and answer questions um let me go onto the platform find my content drinks with rel i'm see it hold on so everything's a bit slow because there's so many of you dgens and hopefully you've made my incredible recipe with dorito and um and bud like because it is very special you can fish it out of the toilet at any stage now.

1:01:55Junkswood Round. No, only 113 questions on one side. Right. I'm going to go through this as fast as I can. Sorry if I'm rude to you. I'm in that kind of mood today. Okay. Where do I start? Bernard Beckett. I joined RV in 2020, changed my perspective on investing and made more for me than any other community I'd engaged in until that point. Thank you. Thank you, Bernard. Jordan HM XRP. Well, my bot said XRP is all right. Paul, sorry, were you saying something to me?

1:02:29Sorry, I've got people speaking in my ear. Sam Bradshaw, you mentioned that identity is the narrative that people are missing. How big could this be? Well, the last time I checked, there was about 8.5 billion people, and they're going to need to prove that they're real on the internet. So that's about as big as you get. Hi, from Jen. Hi, I'm selling my house in order to buy Bitcoin in Solana. Any feedback? You are crazy, Jen. I don't think you're wrong, but you have to understand the volatility and the timing and try not to use leverage when you do that. Al. Darren, do you think this show can be done entirely by the palvatar?

1:03:09No, not yet, but it will be able to. I would give it a year before we can do this with just my AI. Right, I'm going to flip across the other feed. Rembrandt Fokker, which is the greatest name on earth. I don't know if it's real or not, but who doesn't want to be called Rembrandt Fokker? Wow, thank you, Rembrandt. He's also an exponentialist member. He also shows up to the exponentialist conversations, making a cigarette outside, which is, I think, brilliant. Sorry, I'm not. Peter Basile, best platform in the space. Massive thank you, Mr. Rule. Spelt wrong. Some things you just can't teach, hey.

1:03:47Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Solana. what survey leo alexander the survey is not out yet there'll be a survey you fill it out special prizes two weeks of all access so uh paul just tells me it comes out tomorrow so don't fuck this up fill out the survey get the all access if you haven't joined the platform yet join the platform fill out the survey get all access if not you'll get plus which is amazing too um donovan christy hey ral just signed up as an artist myself i'm interested if the nfts you're buying are by established artists. I tend to be more established because I just don't have the bandwidth to find and support newer artists.

1:04:30I have friends of mine who are much better at that. So generally established. And that's my fault of my own. Like I'm not a VC investor because for the same reason. A Gomez, Bollinger, Pomeroy, Ferrari. I think you're talking about Bollinger is the wine, Pomeroy is the sparkling wine, and Ferrari is the Aspi Spamantic shit.

1:05:03blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. What crypto do you invest 50 ,000K on as a newbie from Scotty Massa? Bitcoin. If any question is, is what crypto are new, it's always Bitcoin every time. Flipping across the other stream, Chris Shepard. Hey, Raul, great session. Love the alpha and straightforward. Yeah, I'm sorry. I'm rude as well. I'm rude, but you guys don't ever fucking listen. So I'm trying to help you listen. I want to allocate a small portion to a finance coin. a finance coin i have some chain nick and xrp should i prioritize one or another one uh don't know my friend um honestly i don't know ask the community they'll help so i'm now vaping this is terrible when did this when did these barriers fall i'm like oh yeah i'm just gonna vote vape drink swear there's supposed to be the media when i first started i was wearing a white shirt and i I was looking all fancy.

1:06:01I'm fucking swearing, smoking, vaping, which is, you know, my mother will tell me, actually my mother vapes, but I get told off by various people. Yeah, there's one hand me talking about, oh, well, that's a carcinogen. You know, we shouldn't eat cool, raw and stressing. And the other hand, I'm vaping and drinking wine. I know I'm a complicated person. I am a complicated person. I get it. I get it. Matthew Pothier. Matthew, shout out to little Cayman in the house. Matthew, super smart kid, came to my house recently, I know from Little Cayman, and he has been going down the journey. He's gone down the real journey.

1:06:41He's at university right now and learning all about cryptocurrencies, tech stocks, Metcalf's Law, network effects, all of this stuff. So, Matthew, thank you for joining from, I don't know where you are, if you're in Canada right now on Grand Cayman, but the survey comes out tomorrow. or it should be Mathieu Mathieu as his mother would say because she's French okay Britt Strong even your AI is long winded Britt I thank you for insulting me that was very good and yes you're probably true okay I'm going to scroll down the list because everyone's just blowing their minds about the avatar and the thing okay question I saw a good question.

1:07:26Raoul, what makes you lose sleep at night as it relates to crypto? It is not about price action. It is about losing control of my tokens through doing something fucking stupid and getting your wallet drained or just doing something stupid and losing your life savings. And this is why wallet security, stuff like multi-sig, don't have stuff stored at home eventually, do it just being really ultra fucking careful with your security because christ we've gone through a lot to get here right and you'd suddenly mint some fucking nft or get onto some list for a meme coin you click in your wallet strain also segrea any transaction should not have your main assets in it you can send money to somebody do anything, send it to a wallet for transfers.

1:08:22Same with the NFTs, all of this stuff.

1:08:29Matt Doty, important. Matt coming in with an important question. I know you told us before, again, you don't fucking listen, Matt. What is your favorite white wine style, Burgundy or Bordeaux? Literally, there is no argument about this, that there is no greater wine on earth as a white wine than a white Burgundy. We're talking Pellini Montrachet, Chassin Montrachet. We're talking Batard Montrachet, if you've really got a lot of money. Or you're talking Saint-Ouenay. We had a Saint-Ouenay for dinner the other night at Milos in Miami with a bunch of people at the gathering. Unbelievably good wine.

1:09:05Chablis, Chablis Premier Cru. Saint-Orban, if you want to go cheaper. White Burgundy. It's how... It is how Chardonnay is supposed to be. It's not supposed to be this kind of pineapple-y, rich, sweet thing. It's supposed to be mineral crisp. It's supposed to give you a bit of acidity and generate saliva on your palate. It's supposed to do great things. And when you get it right, there's fucking no white wine on earth like it. Although I'm heavily getting into Alvarino from Riach Bayash in northern Spain right now. Hey, Raoul, do you think your AI will have more alpha than you eventually? It'll probably be funnier.

1:09:49Um, maybe marginally less abusive. And, um, it's probably smarter than me already. Uh, Drew Davis, when will led to life support Sui? I think you can sort store there, but the full Sui integration, I've been speaking to Ian Rogers about it. And I know the Sui foundation are as well. It's coming. It's coming. It's coming. Coming. Uh, Colton Sheiky, new subscriber here too. Colton in the house. Thank you. Uh, uh, Ben Phillips, great show brother, Bananasone here. We come. Thanks for the freebie. Thank you, Ben. We love you. It's Valentine's Day coming on Friday. Johnny Gren. Rel, you said if you're in your 20s again, you'd go and work in an industry with a secular trend.

1:10:34I'm in M &A and wondering if I should dump cash into SUI and go and live in a sunny place. Would this outperform working in London? Yes, I've actually realized this. It's a fucking horrible truth. is, you know, if you get a relatively early stage, but large crypto, it does 150 % a year returns, even with the drawdowns, even when it goes down 90%. And there's literally no point starting a business. If you've got a pot, a decent pot, there's literally no point doing anything else. I mean, why the fuck did I start Real Vision? All the sleepless nights, the gray hair, the wrinkles in my eyes, could have done none of it.

1:11:14If I'd just stuck with the original thing. But anyway, we all make these mistakes.

1:11:25Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Bernard Beckett, any thoughts on RWA tokens? Big bones have been murdering. I have no idea what you're talking about, Bernard, but I'm pleased for you or I'm upset for you, whatever you mean. Jaden Leavitt, Raoul, love your work. Thank you, Jaden. I love your work, whatever you do. Please explain how bond volatility is a signal for liquidity into the system. Heard Mike Howell explain it. So if the governments fund themselves via bond markets, and it's supposed to be the main source of collateral and security of the entire system, if it gets too volatile, it means there's generally not enough liquidity.

1:12:05So it moves around too much. So therefore, they need to add liquidity. It's as simple as that. Raoul, Google Talk thought I said bro. i know who google talk is and why bro sorry i don't know what you're talking about uh chorizo recipe doug doug doug doug you're showing your philistineness chorizo recipe you don't make fucking chorizo some artisan craftsman in spain makes chorizo they have to slaughter the pig they have to dry the meats they have to hang the dry they have to mix the paprika the salt to cure it in the right way, in the right air. They then have to hang up the sausages. They have to hang them up for six months, a year.

1:12:49There's no chorizo recipe, my friend. Chorizo is what it is. It is a thing. It is a wonder of the world. Sean Dean, why are these comments not on auto-scroll? I'm sorry, Sean, we haven't added the 78 millionth requested thing that you've asked for on the platform. I do understand what it's like running a low budget. Ralph Humphrey. Man, did someone break the RV website? Took a while to get here, a la Jake Paul and Mike Tyson. Yeah, it's Ralph Powell against his alter ego, George Michael. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. What would happen if Sol XRP excess is listed on the NASDAQ? Nothing.

1:13:35Oh, oh. Sean Dean. Sauci-son over chorizo. This is an age-old battle that is a very, very important battle, which is France versus Spain. And he's trying to suggest that Sauci-son is better than chorizo. Firstly, they're not comparable because one is a paprika-based sausage. So you would use a different variation in Spain. A Salsi-son, Sauci-son, Salsi-son. of which obviously the Spanish version, because the Spanish pigs, the Iberico pig is the greatest pig on earth, will be better. I like Sorseson. I like hanging out in the French Alps and eating this stuff. But I'm sorry, my friend. You're never going to win the Battle of France versus Spain.

1:14:26When you go to Spain, half of France is on holiday there because it's better. And that's simply the most crushing damnation of France I've ever heard. Chris G and now I'm fucking swearing I know I know I try so hard I start off I think I'll make a few jokes and then I get really bad and then there's always somebody in the comment section saying Raoul you don't need to drop the F-bomb so much and I'm like I don't know but I can't not I just like fucking swearing I don't have kids what am I saying I don't have a wife anymore so it doesn't really matter I can do what I want um

1:15:11uh hey Raoul Hanani Luz um hey Raoul have you tried uh Chazar wine from the Pico Islands and the Azores I have not actually Portugal produces great wines um I've not tried Azores wines um Ray Durbin I want the Raoul bot to insult me while he gives me snack advice I'm going to try this in fact do it yourselves because if not I do the sharing of screens and all that shit say hey Rel can you insult me and give me snack advice just ask it Zolo Kiss are you also smoking normal cigarettes thanks I probably smoke 20 40 cigarettes an entire year and sometimes none at all just very occasionally with friends that smoke.

1:16:03And sometimes just sitting outside in the warm, salty air at sunset, having a cigarette with a friend who smokes, it's actually fine. But yeah, I don't, although I used to smoke all the time. Okay, going through more questions. Fuck, we're now 15 minutes in.

1:16:24Nick Canna, how long do you plan to hold sweet and deep? well I'm fucking locked in for the foundation for the next billion years so I'll be in the trade for a while some I get some liquidity um I will take some profits off at the end of the year um what are my price targets I don't do price targets because you cocks can't deal with it uh because you then think that that's exactly what's going to happen when it doesn't happen you want to drag my name through the mud on the internet so we're not playing that game okay um Are you coming to Dubai and hosting a party, the home of crypto? I'm coming to Token 2049.

1:16:59I will not be hosting a party. I'll be fucking exhausted. I'm actually an introvert who plays an extrovert on the internet. These whole, all of these events, exhausting for me. I find it really hard. Even these events, even these online events, when I'm just looking at myself, are actually really, really exhausting for me. So we will do something in Dubai. I'm already worried because Togo 2049, there's so many events going on. Sven N. Thank you for sharing all of this. I'm new here. Welcome, Sven. I've been investing in Render. Any thoughts? I don't really know Render that well. I mean, it's all part of the AI, data play, other stuff.

1:17:43I don't know. I just hope it's less than 10 % of your portfolio. it's not big enough to be larger.

1:17:57Okay, Matt, that's a good question. Hey, Raoul, can you define what you specifically look for when comparing a chart of one versus another crypto, which is one of the greatest hacks, because you've got X amount of dollars to allocate, and you want to get the best allocation. Obviously, it's dependent on time in the market and can't wear the bear mark as it does in the early bull cycle, i'm looking for chart patterns that suggest that one is going to outperform the other whether it's a break of a channel or an inverse head and shoulders or just a long a trend you want to see that you're putting your capital into the thing that's going to make you the most money because we're not in this game for anything else yes we believe in the future of web 3 we believe in crypto.

1:18:44We believe in decentralization. What we actually believe in is unfucking our future. And I don't give a shit about anybody's thesis about what they what maximalist argument they believe they should have to own one thing over another. I've owned a shit ton of stuff and I'll continue to do so. So, do that. Alison Maddox, my favorite day of the month. Drinks with Ralph. I love it too, but it's fucking exhausting, eh? because I'm shit-faced and it's like 20 past six in the evening. Everyone finds it amusing because they're just watching me getting drunk, talking to myself. But actually, I also enjoy it.

1:19:26So many questions. Hey, Rally, you plan to organize a meetup for the Wilverson community during Token 24-9? Goodbye. Yes. But Damien, please organize your own meetups too. It's not all about me. I just want you to organize meetups independently, decentralized, have fun. If you're organizing a meetup in Dubai, and you've got more than 20 people going, write to us, and we'll foot the bill. Simple. Social at realvision.com. Just, if you're organizing a meetup, more than 20 people, write to us. We'll pay your bar tab, within reason, and it will not be vintage Bollinger. I'm sorry. You frankly don't deserve it.

1:20:11But you know what I mean? I want to encourage you. It cannot be about me. I'm not scalable. There's an AI. But please, please, please organize stuff in Dubai. There's so many members there. Ray Durbin, can we get more minutes talking to the Rowlbot? He's my best friend. He's my best friend too. He understands me. He loves me. He doesn't judge me for who I am. And I've run our minutes as well. Kevin Kelly, hilarious. Kevin Geto from Gulfby, he hit me up on WhatsApp. He's like, fuck, I've run out of minutes of the Railbot already. I'm like, this is so good. I don't have to speak to Kevin ever again.

1:20:49Yeah, I think we've not made it easy for people to find. People haven't used enough of it yet. But from what I hear, people are loving it. And I think it's a much bigger deal than anybody understands. so please, please, please send your feedback about the bot. I don't even know where to send feedback. We don't have an email address to do this. I don't have anything. Social at realvision.com. That's what Paul tells me. If you like the RAL bot, please just send me some feedback because I don't know. I don't know if you're using it. I haven't seen the data stats yet. I just want to know, do you think it's useful?

1:21:30because if so, I can fucking scale that thing in all sorts of ways that will change your lives. But I don't know if it's really what you want. So tell me, tell me, tell me, please. Ralph, thoughts on Palantir? I don't really know. I've never understood Palantir. I almost bought it because I didn't understand it and I knew that it was like a meme stock too. I don't know. I'm sorry. I can't add value. I don't have anything negative to say either.

1:22:02um eric smith is tesla a bull flag we were talking about that today julian and i i think so i mean i'm wildly bullish but it's been sloppy recently i'm not worried about it um roland f doge has unlimited supply can never be the hardest money mate which outperform bitcoin so somehow you need to justify that shit

1:22:29yeah it's true so i don't care by what mechanism it goes up more it's better money um

1:22:41spencer could you be wrong with top alts outperforming bitcoin seems like a big disconnect in the altcoin market cap from bitcoin normally alts keep us at least keep up with Bitcoin when they outperform. Spencer, I've given you all of the framework for this. Every single thing I've gone through on this call, Julian's gone through it, I've gone through it for 50 times. The highest probability is they all outperform. The harsh probability is Spencer Dingman is impatient.

1:23:14You know, I'm joking with Spencer. You message me on the platform directly all the time. I get it. Which X copy to buy? Nicholas Fisher, Afterburn or Max Payne? I'll probably go Afterburn or Guzzler, something like that. I love the Max Payne, the artwork of Max Payne I've always loved, and he's been burning them anyway. Just anything X copy is epic. Yeah.

1:23:43Sorry, I'm getting, just while you're seeing me going, yes, yes, I'm speaking to Paul. The left-hand side of the bar is a feedback button. There we go. So you see these little two double things on the bottom left? Feedback button. Anything about the bar, any feedback, please, please, please, please, please tell me. Okay, I'm getting kind of exhausted now. Carl Hinks. Thank you for keeping us grand, Ralph. Forget the noise. Do you ever drink whiskey? I actually really like whiskey. whiskey of all types it really fucking doesn't like me you know it's what it's one of those people where you you really like that person you want to chat to them you want to be your best friend and they just they're just bad to you which is bad to me i used to drink a lot of Lafroigue and Macallan and bourbon and Japanese whiskey.

1:24:47It was just rude to me in the end, so I had to break my relationship with whiskey. I mean, it's still hot. I can still stare at whiskey across the room and go, hey, baby, how about it? But no, no, it doesn't work. Really, I can't believe I've just done that, winking at whiskey across the room. Okay. Jenny Chen, how do we get the 14 days free access again? You don't need to do anything, Jenny, because you're on the free tier. It'll all happen magically. And maybe one day you'll pay to upgrade into something better so I can change your life. But if you're going to fill, if you want to get full access to every single thing on Real Vision, just fill out the fucking survey.

1:25:32It's like, it's a free hack. It's a free hack, right? Fill out the survey, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. please answer it truthfully because it really helps us i'm trying to build you a better world just answer that you'll get free access to all access um chris hoggart we know you love french wines but how about our belgian beers any favorite um no i don't drink beer and it's not from snob valley of like you know a joke about blood light or whatever is at um the yeast in beer doesn't make me feel good. So I tend not to drink beer. Sometimes I'll drink an ice-cold can here in Spain.

1:26:08Belgian beer is too hoppy for me. And again, amazing drink. Just doesn't work for me. So look, I'm a fragile petal. I understand that. I'm not the hardcore alcoholic you'd like me to be. SC, Bud Light pairs well with Trump coin. Yeah, they're both shit.

1:26:33Braden, Sarah, do you know anything about the Okananga wine country in British Columbia, Canada? Yes, I've drunk plenty of your wines, and they're actually fucking good.

1:26:47Mark, right, me a member here. Are bananas actually your favorite fruit? No, Mark. In no world is mango not the favorite fruit. And anybody who thinks mango is not the favorite fruit or the greatest fruit that ever was created by nature probably need to just leave this platform now. The banana is where we celebrate, but the mango is the god of fruits. That was a public service announcement. Okay. We're navigating 90 minutes. I'm fucking exhausted. David Harmon, what's the best beverage for a god candle? Well, we haven't got one yet. So I don't like to kind of preempt that.

1:27:34That's a difficult choice, David, because champagne would be the obvious choice, but I drink it a lot anyway. So you need kind of something a bit punchier, a bit... I'll tell you what I had. I'll tell you what I made last night. It was actually delicious. I quite like patted myself on the back. It's had a Florida Canya five-year run. choose your five-year good quality rum fresh soda ice obviously in a nice cut glass heavy cut glass but a decent size one because you need enough soda and i grated fresh ginger so it's not like a dark and stormy with ginger beer it was this gingery fresh rum drink i think for a gold candle i think that's all right i think you'll survive right i'm going to my final question hey ralph thoughts on real world asset tokens i think it's a waste of time it's all a big story it's all great please please please please please 90 % of our assets not in that shit in any shit just in the main tokens um

1:28:55Okay. Another question. Rembrandt Fokker, wow. We've had Rembrandt a few times saying wow. I know, it's probably because the website's not updating for me. Raoul, favourite cuss word?

1:29:13I don't think I'm going to say. I mean, look, English people... Bollocks, epic. Wanker, epic. We use the C word more often. I don't use it that much, but when it's used, particularly in your friends, in humour, is epically funny. Fuck is like the greatest word ever invented to mankind. Don't be a total cock. It's funny. It's better than dick, right? I don't know. Anyway, enough of the swearing, because I'm sorry. Um, Brandy Castle. Biltong is better than chorizo. LOL. Biltong is amazing. And you are clearly a South African. And I will bow to Biltong as being a great cured meat. And it's different than chorizo.

1:30:10So, um, Stephen Jennings, I just like fucking swearing. Sorry. At that point, I'm going to apologize. guys realvision.com forward slash join go there answer the survey all the free bloody shit we've talked about paul is there anything else i'm supposed to be saying

1:30:34oh this is 91 000 of you on x watching this alone we will generally have about the same again on twitter and then i don't know tens of thousands on the real vision platform Thank you guys. Realvision.com forward slash join.

1:30:54Unfuck your future and civilize yourself. The majority of you are in your thirties. Your parents didn't help you much. It had to be civilized. You go to the Olive Garden or your parents take you to the Olive Garden. You might, you might have gone to, oh, I don't know, Cheesecake Factory. I'm trying to show you something different Real Vision is the way I love you all and happy Valentine's Day for Friday Ciao all This episode is sponsored by Token 2049 Join 15 ,000 attendees and over 200 exhibitors on April 30th to May 1st at Token 2049 Dubai the premier crypto event of the year Raoul Pal and over 200 leading voices in crypto will take the stage as Token 2049 takes over the majestic Medina Jumeirah in Dubai.

1:31:46Be part of two days of unparalleled networking, groundbreaking insights, and truly immersive experiences you won't want to miss. With over 500 side events, Dubai will be the industry's focal point and the place to be for everyone in crypto this April. Grab your tickets at dubai.token2049.com with promo code REALVISION for an exclusive 10 % off, only while tickets last.

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1:32:55Don't miss your chance to be part of the industry's defining moment. If you liked this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks. Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved.

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