From INTERPOL to Crypto: Where Crypto Meets Nation-States & Global Security ft. Adam Zarazinski

28 Nov 2024 · 1 h 8 min

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Podcast Summary: From INTERPOL to Crypto: Where Crypto Meets Nation-States & Global Security ft. Adam Zarazinski

Podcast Details

  • Title: Raoul Pal: The Journey Man
  • Episode Title: From INTERPOL to Crypto: Where Crypto Meets Nation-States & Global Security
  • Guest: Adam Zarazinski, CEO of Inca Digital
  • Date Recorded: November 25, 2024
  • Description: Raoul Pal discusses the intersection of cryptocurrency, national security, and financial innovation with Adam Zarazinski, exploring challenges, illicit activities, and the transformative potential of blockchain technology on global markets.

Key Themes and Discussions

Introduction to Adam Zarazinski

  • Background:
  • Adam's journey from intelligence work at INTERPOL to founding Inca Digital, a crypto risk management company.
  • Emphasizes the role of open-source intelligence in confronting illicit activities.

The Role of Inca Digital

  • Overview:
  • Inca Digital focuses on data analytics and intelligence in fintech risk management, primarily in the crypto space.
  • Works with a variety of clients including Web3 companies and government agencies.
  • Function:
  • Provides risk intelligence similar to a financial intelligence unit for crypto.

Challenges in the Crypto Space

  • Illicit Activities:
  • Discussion about scams, money laundering, and the involvement of state actors (e.g., North Korea, Russia).
  • Highlights how crypto can be both utilized for illicit finance and also monitored through blockchain transparency.
  • Scams and Fraud:
  • The prevalence of scams (e.g., fake smart contracts, pig butchering scams) that deter businesses from entering the crypto space.

National Security Perspective

  • Intelligence Community Views:
  • The U.S. Intelligence Community views crypto as part of a broader financial landscape, not as a standalone issue.
  • Importance of integrating crypto into national security strategy.
  • Use of Technology:
  • Highlighting the tech-forward approach of intelligence agencies in leveraging blockchain analytics.

Global Perspectives on Crypto

  • Sovereign State Involvement:
  • Insights into how countries like Iran and China utilize cryptocurrency.
  • China’s unique regulatory environment and strategies for capital outflow.

The Future of Crypto

  • Emerging Trends:
  • Discussion on the potential of stablecoins and their implications for global finance.
  • The impact of regulatory frameworks on crypto innovation and adoption.
  • Geopolitical Implications:
  • The interplay between crypto adoption and geopolitical dynamics, especially as countries explore CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies).

Personal Insights from Adam

  • Excitement for the Future:
  • Anticipation around the growth of stablecoins and their role in the economy.
  • Concerns:
  • Worries about the ongoing illicit activities within crypto spaces and the need for better risk management tools.

Key Takeaways

  • Interplay Between Crypto and National Security:
  • Crypto is integral to discussions of national security, with implications for illicit finance and regulatory approaches.
  • Importance of Data Analytics:
  • Advanced analytics are crucial for understanding market dynamics and managing risks associated with crypto.
  • Adoption and Innovation:
  • The rapid adoption of crypto technologies worldwide presents both challenges and opportunities for traditional financial systems.
  • Need for Regulatory Clarity:
  • A balanced approach to regulation could help foster innovation while ensuring safety and security in the market.

Conclusion The episode provides an in-depth look at the vital relationship between cryptocurrency and national security, highlighting the complexities of illicit activities and the transformative potential of blockchain technology in the global financial landscape. Adam Zarazinski's insights underscore the necessity for proactive measures and analytics in navigating the evolving crypto space.

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Transcript

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1:29Thank you so much. Hi, I'm Raoul Pal, and welcome to my show, The Journeyman, where I go on that journey of exploration at the nexus of macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. One of the things that interests me, well, one of the things I'm really lucky about, I get to speak to people that just do really unique, interesting things. it's just a real privilege to be able to learn and have you guys look over my shoulder. And today I found somebody I thought was really interesting, because what I wanted to understand was what do we not know about blockchains? We know the scans, we know the sovereign actors, we know the North Koreans, the Chinese, the Russians, we know the US, but what are these people doing?

2:16How are they thinking about it? How are they using blockchains? And so I wanted to speak to Adam to figure out, because his company, Inca, looks at on-chain, but not from the forensics point of view, but a much broader aspect to figure out what's really going on in blockchains and who's involved and why they're involved. And I think you're going to find this utterly fascinating. Anyway, I'll see you on the other side. Join me, Raoul Powell, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

3:03Adam, fantastic to see you on Real Vision. Thanks so much for having me. I appreciate it. This is, I think, going to be fun and a very interesting conversation for many. So give us what you do now, and then we'll dig into your ridiculous background. Yeah. So I am the CEO and the founder of a company called Inca Digital. We are a data analytics and intelligence company focusing on fintech risk management. Most of what we do is in crypto, but not exclusively so. So we're a B2B-only company, so we provide risk intelligence to a really wide spectrum of Web3 companies, L1s, exchanges, stablecoins, decentralized exchanges, TradFi financial services that are getting into crypto in some way, and then also to the government.

4:03So we do work with quite a bit of work with the USG, Canadian regulators and some of Europe too. So that's what we do now. We're not a forensics company, as you mentioned. So those companies are great. But we're more like Palantir for crypto or your outsourced national security agency financial intelligence unit for crypto. And we've been at it since 2020. So still going strong. ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven't dared try the futures market is more active now than ever and plus 500 futures is the perfect place to start plus 500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments s &p 500 nasdaq bitcoin gas and much more explore equity indices energy metals forex crypto and beyond with a simple and intuitive platform you can trade from anywhere right from your phone deposit with a minimum of a hundred dollars and experience the fast accessible futures trading you've been waiting for see a trading opportunity you'll be able to trade it in just two clicks once your account is open not sure if you're ready not a problem plus 500 gives you an unlimited risk-free demo account with charts and analytics tools for you to practice on with over 20 years of experience plus 500 is your gateway way to the markets.

5:29Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading and futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500, it's trading with a plus. So I think everyone's going to be very interested in what you're up to, but let's get to how you got here. Give us your story. So I don't have the traditional financial background like most folks. So I got my start in intelligence. I started out as an intern. Actually, I'll tell you a story. I started out as an intern at Interpol. Ultimately, I worked my way up, and I was doing open-source intelligence work for them.

6:09But, Raul, how I got the internship is I lied on my resume and told them that I speak French when, in fact, I speak no French. um but surely the agency must know it's surely they do do their due diligence no no no surprise surprise they do not so they interviewed me and the interview was going great um and they're like okay now we're going to test your french and they just start speaking in french and then my only response was like wait uh and they're like you don't speak any french do you and i said i'm sorry i don't speak any french but i needed the interview right and they're like well we've already decided to hire you free interviews.

6:47So just please never wire your resume again. And that's how I got that job. And that was my, that was my introduction to Intel. Um, so, uh, so worked my way up at Interpol, uh, and, uh, uh, a team that I was working with at the time. What does Interpol do for people who don't know? Yeah. Yeah. Because it's one of these things you hear in every spy film and everything else, but nobody knows what it does. Yeah. And And it's not, like most things, I think, in life, it's not nearly as cool as people make it out to be. It's just not a good name. It just sounds good. Yeah, it has a cool name. It has a really cool name.

7:19Yeah. Yeah. So what they do is they share information across federal law enforcement agencies. And that function is especially important where federal law enforcement agencies don't have bilateral arrangements with each other. So like while like, you know, the FBI and MI5, for example, talk all the time, right? The FBI and the, I don't know, you know, Indian National Police Force maybe don't as much. And so sometimes if the FBI is working on something that is transnational, right, it crosses a lot of different borders, different elements in different countries, Intervol can be the repository for that information.

8:03and then information can be shared across law enforcement agencies so that those agencies can cooperate. So think about, you know, think about the pipeline for Fence Home into the United States, right? It literally traverses the entire globe to get here. And Interpol is one of the places where that information is shared across those agencies. What I did ultimately there is I was taking, all that information is from those law enforcement agencies themselves. And so what I was doing is I was grabbing open source data. So, you know, bad guys talking about what they're doing back then, you know, on the gray web or the dark web or, you know, MySpace, stuff like that, grabbing that information, then adding it to the private sector, you know, the private side data streams.

8:46That's what I was doing there. And a little bit of that work is what we do now, right? We're an all source intelligence company. We take stuff from, we're partners a lot, take stuff from partners, but then, work with government agencies. And then we're grabbing a lot of open source data, data on-chain, data off-chain, data from social media and combining it all together. That's where I got my start, Interpol. And then from there I went to law school. And right after graduation from law school, I joined the United States Air Force as a judge advocate. So I spent two years as a federal prosecutor in Washington, DC.

9:30Then right after that, two years doing intelligence and operations, primarily in Afghanistan. I was doing the legal side of strike packages and intelligence ops in and around Kabul. Then left in 2018 and ultimately started being done. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030.

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11:00With a simple and intuitive platform, you can trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500. It's trading with a plus. RAOUL PAL, JR.: What was your idea in starting Inco? What were you bringing? What did you want to do? Because was this previous to crypto really in your mind? Actually, give us your crypto journey first as well.

11:38Why did all these things come together? Because everyone's always got an interesting crypto journey. RAOUL PAL, JR.: The background of mine is interesting, but it's not really all that interesting um i was um i was uh sitting in the back of a kc-130 um in um in helmand province sweating my ass off for like six hours uh waiting for the plane to take off in full gear um and uh my buddy had given me um what was the book it was um it was digital gold digital Yeah, he'd give me digital gold to read. And that was my introduction into crypto. I just sat there and read it. I think I finished it all in one sitting.

12:21And it blew my mind. And I knew that I had to get into the space in some way. and then your follow-up question on how and why this specifically. So I obviously, I think I have kind of a unique background that I thought could maybe be helpful to businesses as they enter into this new space and try to provide novel financial services to people. And then at the same time, I saw the risk management tool sets that are still to this day being used in crypto, mostly the Francis companies, which, like I said, those tools are important. But in a way, they kind of turn risk management on its head, right?

13:15It's you tag a wallet address that has done something bad or associated wallet addresses to the bad thing, and then you know not to do that bad thing again. So what we try to do at Inca, what I think the space needs is more of identifying small P problems before they become big P problems. That's ultimately for our clients, right, for financial services businesses. So that's the big problem that we're trying to solve is how do we use technology? How do we use data to identify those small P problems, nip it in the bud, so that it doesn't become something bigger for the industry? So something I think we talked about when we last chatted, you and I, is I've got a thesis that Bitcoin came out of somewhere between the NSA and GCHQ and that the Department of Defense kind of thought the same thing, that it was one of these multiple projects that gets launched to test ideas out for a kind of separate financial system.

14:13And I've yet to see that disproven, that weird mix of languages, the English and American English, the kind of skill set involved. Any thoughts on that? Yes. I'll give you more or less the same answer, which is it's possible. I'm not saying it's not possible. It definitely is. And, you know, and by the way, IARPA and DARPA, for example, obviously, they built the Internet, the first version versions of the Internet. So it absolutely could be that. At the same time, though, I think I think you see this a lot in crypto just because the U.S. government has such a huge impact on how crypto does. we're seeing this with the trump administration now right just uh the uh the market that we're in just because he was elected right the the u.s government as a whole has such a huge impact on on the industry um that there's a lot of discussion about the u.s government and the industry and how those two things the interplay between those those two parties and um i see the industry ascribing a lot more coordination and a whole of government approach that does not exist within the US government.

15:38So if Bitcoin was created by, let's just say the NSA, it would have been done in the back room somewhere, one project that probably the rest of the organization didn't even know about and probably forgot about. You know, they just like, and then somebody just took it on as a pet project and it went from there. You know, the, there's a, it's actually not only, not just an issue within the US government, but one of the reasons that Inc. is doing so well on the government side too is because coordinating across different government agencies, you know, from Treasury to the DOD, to the, you know, to the intelligence community, to DHS, That is extraordinary and takes a monumental effort.

16:29And so, yeah, it could have been, but it was probably a couple of dorks in the back room somewhere. That's what DOD said. It's like, we've got no way of telling. And I don't think the NSA would know or GCHQ would know or anybody would know. But there's kind of the same reasons. It's like so much happens that nobody really knows who's experimenting on what, what experiments work, which ones fail. And as you said, it could then become a private project of somebody and disappears off. So let's talk a bit about in the intelligence agencies, how do they think about crypto? What is the big focus for them?

17:11Obviously, it's money laundering, it's state actors, and we'll come into that in a bit. But they had very good abilities with Silk Road, and they proved out how blockchain is actually pretty useful for them. RAOUL PAL, What's the current thought within the intelligence, which is very separate to what the government thinks? RAOUL PAL, Yeah, exactly. So I would lump, so yeah, put the regulators to the side, and then put the administration, like the White House, to the side, and then lump together the intelligence community. But I would make it even a little bit broader, just call it the national security community.

17:47So that would include the Department of Defense. obviously I don't speak on behalf of the Department of Defense even though I'm a you know I'm a reservist but I would say that generally speaking you're right that you know there's this element there's an element that we can get into later of like okay illicit finance and money laundering but even there on that and then we'll get to like the bigger points but even there in that they don't see rightfully they don't see crypto as this thing that needs to be addressed on its own, right? It is part of one of many pathways that enlisted financial transactions can take.

18:29Everything from crypto, sure, but also normal money laundering with cash, trade-based money laundering, using the banking system, using other new technology that's out there because it's not just crypto, right? I mean, there's new financial services popping up, like, for example, banking as a service in the banking industry every day. And so folks that work in the DOD side is called Counter Threat Finance. So folks that work in Counter Threat Finance definitely do not see crypto as a thing that independently needs to be addressed. It's just part of the broader spectrum of financial services that are available, both good and bad, that people in illicit finance use.

19:11So that's the first thing. And then the second thing I would say is, unlike the regulatory space, even in the regulatory space, actually, I think this is true to a degree, but folks in the IC and in the DOD, they are very tech forward and tech leaning. And they see all of the benefits that this can bring as well. And in fact, I think, in large part, believe that crypto is an important part or should be an important part of our national security strategy moving forward. For example, and Raul, I mean, you know more about this than me, right? But you can talk all day. We could do another podcast on dollarization of economies and the role that Tether is playing.

20:07doing that. That is super important, especially as we enter this new era of near-peer competition. Do you think they want it? Or is excess dollarization too big a problem? Or are they just happy with, okay, as long as we've got control over it, we see what's going on. Much like the euro-dollar market, we can't see everything, but we see a decent amount, and we're happy because they're using dollars. Yeah, I think that, well, I don't know. I mean, I mean, I don't think that there's been there's a current debate going on in this topic within those spaces in particular that I'm a part of. I'm actually pushing for it.

20:43Right. I think generally speaking that the national security community needs to be more hawkish in a way that brings crypto back on shore, that accepts crypto here in the U.S., that creates sandboxes where we need sandboxes, allows for stable points to flourish, things like that. I think because I think it's sink or swim at this point, like either, you know, these technologies are already out there. And right now they're using U.S. dollars. But what I mean, you know, like Tether is what the third, fourth largest buyer of treasuries, U.S. treasuries in the world. Right. That's important. Right.

21:23And so I think the U.S. national security sector is acknowledging more and more every day that we need geopolitical strategies that are focused on economics, not just their guns, faster planes, bigger aircraft carriers, bigger bombs. we need this too, because this is the game that a lot of our near-peer adversaries are playing. So I think there is that acknowledgement, and I'm definitely pushing for that in the national security sector. And we'll just see where it goes. But yeah, generally speaking, they're the problem. So the intelligence community, we're obviously using private sector people like yourself, but also do they have a kind of large-scale AI infrastructure to kind of monitor all of this in real time?

22:22Because it's a very complex web, particularly when you take in all the other payments and all the other aspects of finance. How do they monitor all of that stuff? No, it's a mishmash, right? There's not like, there's not, it's just like we were talking about before, kind of like, you know, across agencies, it's tough to coordinate, even within teams, right? even within divisions, if you just take the DOD, right? I mean, the DOD is, you know, really four different branches plus big DOD and, and they all have their own budgets and they're all buying different tools. And so no, I, you know, there's not one platform that monitors, you know, the entirety of, of FinTech, right.

23:09Or not even the entirety of crypto, right. There's a bunch of different players and they are using the tools at their disposal or buying tools like ours, right, to monitor the aspects that are under their jurisdiction. But, you know, if you just look at, and their jurisdiction can be different, right? You've got, even within just the Department of Defense, you've got, you know, subject matter jurisdiction, right? So they're looking at a particular issue, right? We are an office that is only looking at how fentanyl is shipped into the United States from the southern border. And that's like the only thing that we do, right?

23:53And so then they have a budget or they use their parent organizations tools, or they have the budget and they buy the tools. So they'd come to Inca and say, here's the data set that we need, and then We'll provide them a data set, we'll provide them an analyst or whatever. Or it could be a territorial jurisdiction, right? So you've got, for example, the different combatant commands control, monitor different parts of the world. So AFRICOM, for example, is for Africa, right? And Southcom is - You almost used the word control at that point, didn't you? I yanked it. I meant control from the top. I heard that.

24:35Not externally, although maybe a little bit of it too.

24:41Thanks for calling me out on that. Just watch these things. Now, what about, because there's a few contentious things that will come out of this. One is central bank digital currencies. right obviously europe's pushing for this because they have a tighter requirement for control over money uh essentially china has one india's building one you know but the u.s you know this government's run the new government is run on we're not going to do that but do you think that that's something that they want um and is it a domestic digital currency that they want to have total control over where money goes, or you think it's a red herring for the US because it's too big?

25:33I think it's a red herring for the US because it's too big. I mean, these debates are definitely happening.

25:44And ultimately, I think it depends on who you talk to within any given organization. um but and this is not i hope this isn't like i hope you don't feel that this is dodging the question but i just feel like there are so many things that we need to do before we get to that point here in the united states you know like there's just a lot that we that we need to do first right we need to we need to create a safe space for small businesses to operate um uh in a way that is sustainable where they're not going to fear being stamped out of existence as they get started, right? Like that needs to happen first.

26:23And there are a lot of companies that are run by Americans that don't operate in the United States because of that. And they would love to move back, I'm sure. Stablecoins included, right? And so I think we just need to address that question first before we get to, as a country, right? The big we, the capital W we. need to address that question first before we get to CBDCs. And then we can tackle that. My guess is they won't need it because of the control that they have over the financial system, unlike anybody else. It is not necessary for the US. One of the things that I think people think of when they're hearing us talk is, yes, you've said that it's not very coordinated.

27:14So how people are looking at this. But people immediately think the rise of the surveillance state and thinking about how advanced China is of that. My view on that is we lost that privacy decades ago. They know everything goes in your bank account. They know every mobile phone call you make. They know every website you visit, that it can get all of your Google data, then get all of your Facebook data. There has been no privacy anyway. And this is just all part of that. Yeah, I mean, I more or less agree with that. I more or less agree. I would say the two caveats are, from a technological point of view, I agree.

28:02are they monitoring what you're doing at any moment in time no because it's almost they actually have the opposite problem right they have like you know let's just use the NSA as an example not to pick on them but like they have so much data that they almost don't they have the problem of having too much now if they needed to you know if they needed to like look up Adam Zarazinski and look into, like, you know, use my mobile, you know, ad ID data to see what gym I go to, then, you know, correlate that with my, whatever, my socials and my bank account? Yes. Like, if they ticked on me, they could do it.

28:45But are they monitoring everybody all the time? No, it's just too much stuff. And so actually one of the, even for parts of elements of the U.S. government, and so we've got, just as an example, we have APIs of data, right? We can build dashboards. We do data dumps. But a lot of our government clients consume intelligence reporting. So they ask for a thing, right? We can use the fentanyl example or as market-oriented, right? Hey, we just want to see what's happening with this particular stablecoin, where it's being traded, what the real versus fake trading volume is, what's the concentration risk, et cetera, et cetera, like that kind of stuff.

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29:26And that's something that you can eat nice, really easily packaged up into an API for them to check whenever they want. They don't want it. They want a regular reporting. They want you to make their life easier. Yeah. And just give it to the guy that makes the decision. And then if they want to check the data to make sure that we're doing an okay job, then they can check it. How the hell is China doing it at such scale? Or are they not? Is that just kind of false reporting by sort of alarmist media? Yeah, I don't. It could very well be a bit of both. But one of the reasons why is the nature of the U.S.

30:02system, even in what you correctly described as like the surveillance state era, right, is still fairly decentralized in the United States, right? Like just between different federal government agencies, state versus federal is a continuing issue. And that's talked a lot about in the political realm, but also like just like where and how different agencies do do work is a big is a big continuing thing that is always like for big projects. Right. Is always something that they need to tackle. And I would say in defense of in defense of like the DOD and the IC, too, they take the authorities and their lack of authorities very seriously.

30:45So if we provide data to the Department of Defense, under no circumstances whatsoever are we ever allowed to provide anything on US people. And if we do, there's even one US person that is accidentally in there for some reason we get booted. They take it pretty serious. So there's that too. Yeah. Now, what is the role of other sovereign states in the crypto market? because obviously this is of international relevancy. Yeah. So there's a few things I want to ask. One is we kind of know Iran is mining Bitcoin as a method to get US dollars. Are we able to track that? Does everybody know this? And it's just part of the fine.

31:40They need some dollars somewhere. How do we think about that one? We'll talk about China as well. Yeah. No, Iran is an interesting issue. So without saying too much, Inka has quite a bit of data on Iran. They have, at least according to Inka's data, approximately 30 large centralized exchanges. And those are just centralized exchanges. They also have OTC desks and everything like that. billions of dollars being traded for crypto to Iranian real back and forth in those markets. And oh, by the way, as you correctly identified, most normal citizens in Iran, at least what the law says in Iran, is that they're not allowed to trade crypto.

32:27They are allowed to mine it, but they're not allowed to trade it. So how and where they get billions of dollars in trading volume we can guess right um without being on the without you know people on the ground um although iranians are pretty resourceful i mean like facebook was banned for decades and i mean iranians are very resourceful people i've spent time there and they're like oh yeah that all of this stuff's bad but here's my facebook page and here's my instagram i'm like okay yeah it's like it's like you're using twitter and brisland it's the same thing yeah um totally And by the way, I'm not a sanctions expert, but I'm pretty sure that even if you've got a secondary market of crypto that's being used in Iran to trade, that's not a sanctions violation.

33:20There's no violation because nobody owns the asset. Exactly. Exactly. And on the Iran side, too, right? It's just like normal everyday Joes just using crypto because, you know, they need to buy something from Temu or something. I don't know. You know what I mean? Like, it's not a big deal. The currency keeps falling in value. So it's something, you know. Yeah, exactly. At the same time, right? Is that something that is that something that the issuers of those currencies or, you know, the organization that's it behind them might want to know on the chance that they run into issues? Yeah, probably.

33:56They'll probably want to know that. Or we have also seen direct relationships between wallet addresses of certain tokens and Iranian exchanges that are hard to find. We are monitoring for things like that, and we frequently do find them. So I think it cuts both ways. And without getting too much into the policy side, I think the standards should just be like, are you trying as a company right are you trying and are you are you being like a good crypto citizen and if you are and you know uh regardless of the tools that you're using it's not you have to be using those tools we're not perfect right but like if you're being a good citizen and you're trying um you're trying to do the right thing and dress in the right way i don't think there's anything wrong with that um but you know at the same time i think um uh there's a lot of players in crypto that are not fun and actively turning a blind eye.

34:55And, you know, and of course, like, that's just like, like Iran is like kind of like a sexy thing, right? For everyone, like, you know, oh shit, something bad is happening in Iran. There's scams that are actually affecting these exchanges and these platforms in ways that actually affect their business, right? Like, you know, fake smart contracts that are impersonating official tokens and stuff like that, that we also take down. But yeah, we also do. RAOUL PAL I want to come into the private sector stuff in a sec, but there's a few more state actor stuff that's always interesting.

35:29China, my mental model of this space is that Coinbase is the US representative of this new world. It's blessed. It's like Google. It's like the chosen one. Finance and a couple of the other Asian exchanges are Chinese-linked in that way. I think that the Chinese wealthy use it as capital flight or capital in, capital out. It's allowed, and then it's not allowed, like China trying to pull back capital now. I think there's probably quite a lot of selling coming out of China. How do you see the Chinese using this? Yeah. Yeah. Well, the - We'll get into North Korea at the end, because that's the big one.

36:12I want to do China and Russia. No, I would say China is a little bit more complicated, especially as it's related to the centralized exchanges. I'm not sure that the analogy, actually, I think that the analogy is not US Coinbase, China, Binance. I actually don't think that. I think that it's a lot, I think that Binance, it's a lot more nuanced on the ground. Now, that doesn't mean that Chinese people, just like Americans, are not using Binance, they are, right? And legitimately so. But I think, you know, China's particular relationship with crypto is like ours. It's complicated. And so, but we will see what happens.

37:04I think that China lays, I think that there's a lot more bark than bite in what their official stated policy is for sure, too. And I do also think that they're using Hong Kong as a testing ground for different businesses and different business opportunities that will then at some point be onboarded into the mainland. But the exchanges themselves, though, finance is a country unto itself, man. with the amount of success that they have seen. RAOUL PAL, In a decentralized country, because it's everywhere and nowhere. It's gigantic. RAOUL PAL, Yep. Yep, exactly. RAOUL PAL, They really tried to clean up their acts, I guess.

37:47RAOUL PAL, That's what I was going to say. Yeah, you beat me to it. That's exactly what I was going to say. Yeah, I do see this kind of like, I know this is a little bit off topic, but I do see this widening gap between like companies that are moving into the hey okay we're no shit gonna clean up Iraq now and those that that's what kind of what I was alluding to before and those that are firmly in the we are not going to try screw off camp and I think before there was a lot in the gray zone in the middle. And now it's, it's starting to, it's starting to go like that. Like another one is OKX. Like, OK, like we talked with OKX.

38:35We don't have a contract with them. So I don't want to imply that, but we do talk with them on some issues and we've gone back and forth. I think they're trying, you know, I mean, finance, I mean, finance has their own financial intelligence unit that's bigger than Incas, you know? So, so I think they're trying, That doesn't mean that they're perfect either. They still have a long way to go, but they're off the X for sure. And the Russians, they're smart people as well. They're obviously using crypto rails or whatever they can. What kind of Russian side of things and the sanctions, how does that all work?

39:10Or again, is it a non-sanctionable thing and we just use it to monitor flows? I mean, we've tried sanctioning wallet addresses. you know like it's i don't know i i think i think sanctioning wallet address is kind of silly um like i just like uh you know um you can sanction a wallet address and then you can follow the flow of funds to from that sanctioned wallet address to other wallets but like you know businesses are running into all the time now like they interact with a wallet address that was like, you know, 17 hops away from a sanctioned wallet address. And there's like a fraction of the cent in that wallet address and it's getting flagged.

39:52It's like, this is right. At the same time, can crypto is crypto being used for like what I would not like, not necessarily. I mean, sometimes it is straight sanctions evasion or at least like say what I would call sanctioned avoidance, weakening the power of our sanctions to begin with, yeah, that's happening. But it happens outside of crypto too. I mean, we can sanction it. Any mechanism they can. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, we sanction a company and the person that owns that company, and then if we don't, if Inka, for example, doesn't have an on-tept list, that person's cousin starts a new company and voila, problem solved.

40:37You know what I mean? So that happens both inside and outside of crypto as well. You just need to acknowledge both. But you can do it really quickly in crypto, right? I can split up a fresh wallet address on any L1 pretty quick. So yeah, I mean, it's happening. RAOUL PAL, And also, we sent a very big signal to Russia by basically robbing them of their reserves. When you say the US dollar is not the US dollar for you guys, you're going to push them into this other world. RUHLEN BOOTHERNANI, Absolutely. Absolutely. Yes. Particularly when they sanctioned all the yachts and all of the stuff without due process.

41:14It's like, that was, I think, a big mistake because it forces people outside and the sovereigns to think about what is my life. New ways. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, they already were too. I mean, I got this quote stuck in my mind going back to China. It was from Don't quote me on who said it, but it was somebody like the digital assets specialist to the Central Bank of China, who a couple of years ago said that they're taking a horse race approach to crypto, which is basically like the first to market, the country that does the best with innovation is going to take ultimately all of finance, is what he was basically saying.

42:07There's acknowledgment on the ground that this is happening. This is why, by the way, I think that the US needs to pull their heads out of their asses on the regulatory side. RAOUL PAL, So in the private sector, the biggest problem of all is North Korea. How the hell do we stop all of their hackers? Because they're outside of the system. We force them outside of the system. And they've become a huge problem, not from just moving money around to get access to dollars, but because they're so incentivized to get dollars on the ground because nobody earns money, they're hacking everything. So I'm sure a lot of what you have to do is North Korean hackers.

42:45Yeah, we deal with them fairly regularly.

42:50Well, so day to day, yes, we deal with them. And we work with private sector, our private sector clients, not only to like identify where, when, how that is happening, but then we also coordinate with law enforcement on their behalf. So if something bad happens, you know, we can have our federal side pick up the phone and call somebody at DHS or FBI or wherever it is. And you can basically get immediate, you know, big USG coordination on the bad thing that's happening. But can we do that? I mean, they just take money and there's not what we can do about it. Well, there are some things that you can do.

43:33So if the money's gone, one thing that you can do is if you move fast enough, you can freeze those assets as they're being transferred from place to place. If it's a place that has freezable assets, right? So if the assets are moved to a centralized exchange, we can get a court order that freezes the assets. with Inka, I actually started up a law firm specific for this purpose. So we have like a little mini law firm arm now where you don't actually need to coordinate with law enforcement. We can get what's called TRO, a temporary restraining order, in 24 hours with the right set of facts. So we can do it really fast.

44:07And typically, even North Korean hackers, they're not moving money because the volumes are so big, right? They're typically like moving it in chunks. So if they steal, it just depends on the amount of money stolen. But if they steal in the low millions, typically what they're doing is they're moving those assets into an account that they have somewhere. And then from there, collecting more stolen illicit assets until it's a sufficient amount for them to move it. So we can freeze assets. and then the other thing that you can do that happens a lot is they have insider attacks where somebody gets a job.

44:48I'm sure you did. Did you read about this? How they interview for jobs and get jobs in tech companies. So if you're worried that this is a problem for all of your watchers and listeners, all you need to do is one of your interview questions needs to be like, okay, read this statement. The North Korean regime is full of idiots and I expressly, you know, espouse the downfall of the Kim Jong-un regime. And then if they're willing to say it on camera while they're being filmed, then they're not a North Korean spy. If they're not and they hang up on you, you are probably about to get out. You can also have them like rip up the picture of the leader on screen and film it.

45:35So, you know, people hearing us talk will think, oh, my God, you know, There's so much illicit activity on chain, but it's a small fraction. And it's a small fraction of, I guess, what you do as well. So what else are people in the private sector doing to kind of understand their business, use your skill sets in ways that's not just about hacking, but just about the understanding of what's going on? Because I don't want to lead people to believe this is a whole dark, murky world. It's a fraction of that. Yeah, that's right. Yeah, it is. So all that, as I said, the sexy stuff, like Russia and Iran and all that kind of stuff, you're right.

46:20It's an important part of if you're running a business, your risk mitigation strategy, because one slip up there can be your downfall. It's like you need to pay attention to it. But you're absolutely right. It's not a large percentage of what these businesses are having to deal with, nor is it, by the way, even a large percentage of what we do for our clients. You're right. We're doing a lot of other stuff. One of the things that I'm actually more worried about that I think is going to come down, and this is still in the world of illicit. There's a lot of non-illicit stuff that we do, but in the world of illicit stuff is just like scams by scammers that are having such an impact.

47:06I've actually spoken to multiple large, I won't name who, but like large financial, like fintech forward financial service providers in the United States who want to get more into crypto, but are worried about doing so because of the amount of just like scams that are happening. Like where, and it can be anything like, you know, the one I mentioned was fake smart contracts impersonating real tokens, right? or it could be like fake airdrops or it could be like pig butchering scams where some unwitting person that has never invested in crypto before is told to send their life savings through a particular stable coin or through a particular financial service.

47:53Things like that is actually stopping more of the crypto industry from being adopted here in the United States. And so we work really hard to take those bad guys down. even more so than the big sexy stuff, because that is honestly stopping the industry. RAOUL PAL How do we stop them? Because they pop up everywhere. Pump.fun just creates a million more scammers who just launch something, rug pull everybody. That's one method of a scam. The others are the fake websites and the click through and the draining money from wallets and the NFT frauds. I mean, it's endless. RAOUL PAL It is endless. Yeah.

48:31Yeah. Yeah. The way that happens in non crypto to the Nigerian print scam or this, there's everybody wants to take your money. That's the general rule of life. It's, it's, this is like, this is, this is old scams just with new, with, you know, new, new technology, right? It's the same shit. So no, you're right. And, and, and what Inca's, what Inca's goal is all sorts of intelligence to help stop it. We block those websites. We provide the data to block the websites, to block the wallet addresses, but not just that, the people, the companies. That makes it harder. Still, though, it's still popping up.

49:15It's still not enough. So now we've got this entire actionable arm, where honestly what we're trying to do is make it not worth our while to use crypto anymore. So we're going out and we're freezing assets very quickly, right? We're sharing, we're starting up like information sharing agreements between organizations. Some of it just on the private side, right? Between different companies that are facing the same type of issue so that they can share data amongst themselves and, you know, therefore kind of grow the database on what should be blocked. And that's what we're doing in the hope that eventually we get enough data and we take enough of their money that they just go elsewhere, go back to only using the banking sector, right?

50:02Or elsewhere, cash. RAOUL PAL, MD, So what are you seeing on the non-illicit side? What kind of work are you doing there? ASH BENNINGTON, Yeah, yeah. So we do a ton of work with market data analytics, too. So we look at stablecoins as an example, right? So how and where stablecoin pairs are being traded, what the real versus fake trading volume is, if market makers are living up to their SLAs, right? Or if they're just like jumping. RAOUL PAL That's a big deal, because the market makers have a lot of power, they get given a lot of money, and it's pretty opaque. ED HARRISON Yes, exactly. Yeah. So we've got some analytics.

50:45We work with - RAOUL PAL These guys are unregulated. That's part of the issue. And it's hard analytics to see if they're actually doing their job well or if they're just dumping, regularly dumping. I'll find it for you if you're interested or if the folks watching are interested. but there's this dude who went on like a YouTube rant, like spree talking about how he creates fake market activity for some of the big market makers. So some Russian dude, he runs like an outfit in like Moscow or something just doing this, which that's a problem, right? That's a problem for our crypto clients, right?

51:33If that's actually happening. So we've got data analytics that can, that does a deep dive into these markets to see where and how liquidity is being provided. Saving everybody money, making sure that markets are efficient. It's not illicit, but it's an important aspect of what we do too. RAOUL PAL Yeah, because that behavior was banned in financial markets a long time ago via regulation. We've seen Jane Street step away from being not good actors and getting the US government on them. But we've got a bunch of these big market makers who, they're just private trading shops that can basically do anything they want.

52:14And if they don't, you have to sue them, and they have more money than everybody. RAOUL PAL, MD, PhD That's right. Yeah, that's exactly right. Yeah. And that's hurting the industry, too, right? And ultimately, really, who is hurting is retail investors, right? Retail investors are going to be the ones that I disagree. again. Are people using your service as well for understanding growth strategy and other stuff? If you have a vision of what's moving, how it's moving, where the opportunities are, that kind of stuff. Absolutely. Without naming the company, we did a whole deep dive analysis for a large social media platform that was going to launch their own token, looking into remittances from the Philippines and from one other country.

53:06So they wanted to know basically, who are the power players in the ground? Are they using crypto? So what are they using? What does market entry look like? Things like that. We pulled all that intelligence together for them too. So yeah, that's a good question. RAOUL PAL, MD, PhD. Another question that I've been thinking through is what Elon is building with X. He's talked about, he's already got money transmission licenses in whatever states. It's a stupid process to go through. And he's paying creators on X, but you can't, I'm in the Cayman Islands, we can't have Stripe, I can't get paid. If you're in Nigeria and you happen to be in Nigeria on Twitter, you don't get paid.

53:47You're an Indonesian Twitter, right? It doesn't function in that way. And the idea would be that he is setting it up to use Doge, for example. Are we seeing these Web2 players starting to understand how enabling this is? Obviously, the Facebook team that's now SWE and Aptos, whatever, got shut down because of this. But it feels that this is going to be another big thing. It's only going to be more work for you. So it's good for you. It's good for me either way. It feels like that's coming. What do you think? Oh, yeah, it's coming. It's coming. I think too, the Tread5 players already knew and they know.

54:39They know that this is coming.

54:44and I think with the change in administration now, you know, they're going to, a lot of them at least are kind of like hovering over the button, just waiting to play. Right. And I think that's both the big Web 2 players plus the financial system. They're all like... Both, that's right, man. Yep, both. Absolutely, absolutely. But like, you know, with the current administration and with the way that the regulators were approaching the market, it was just a cost-benefit analysis for them of like, listen, this is going to be too much of a headache right now. We'll just deal with this when something changes.

55:17And now I think that something has come. So yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens over the next four years because I think you're going to see a ton of Web2 participants, of TradFi participants, all ready to go and jumping in. It's going to be a gold rush for sure. for sure, which is going to be obviously good for me. RAOUL PAL, So final two questions. What are you personally most excited for in the space to come? And what do you fear the most? RON ALBINIUSSKI, That's a tough question.

55:56I'm kind of like a political science, international geopolitics nerd, ultimately. That's why I joined the Air Force, right? And I went to Interpol and, you know, I had designs. It was a little bit too bureaucratic of an organization for me, but, you know, I had designs to be a Jag, you know, for my career and everything. And that's why I still have one foot in, you know. But I am interested to see, like, you know, there's this giant rush, as you know, of stable clients coming into the market. Like, there's a bunch of them, right? And I just, I'm interested to see how that is going to play out and what the geopolitical ramifications of that are going to be.

56:40And then I obviously I'm throwing myself into that ring too. You know, like we're playing, we're playing the game there. So that, that's what's most exciting. Just like how all of that is going to play out. How about you? What's your answer to the first question? RAOUL PAL I'm just most excited about the fact that the growth of adoption of this technology is the fastest in all recorded history. And what we're doing is democratizing access to an investment asset that also gives you financial freedom. At the end of it, the ability to do and give people control of their finances or identity and all the things we can do with crypto, it's just super empowering for so many people.

57:26I can't express how many people I've met, Filipinos, Indonesians, Malaysians, Brazilians, Argentinians, where this has completely changed their lives. And it's not just about living in a country with weak currency. It's like scarce hard assets like gold or real estate are unaffordable to most people. And here you've got a global homogenous investment asset that's hard, that's fractionizable. So whatever your weekly wage is, you can invest 10%. And so you don't get left behind. If we think about how the rich-poor divide is so big now, this is, we know how broken the financial system is at a very big level.

58:10That's what I get excited about. It's a complete reordering of the financial system and society somewhat in this. RAOUL PAL, MD, PhD No, I could not agree more. That was a better answer than mine. You should have gone first. RAOUL PAL Well, stablecoins is part of it. RAOUL PAL No, it is. RAOUL PAL I mean, again, one of the funny things, I get my hair cut here in the Cayman Islands, a bunch of Filipinos, and they're crypto junkies, because they love gambling. And I'm like, why are you guys so into crypto? They're like, simple, we send money home to our family in stablecoins. And I'm like, oh, they said, you've got to understand, there is no access to US dollars for us, and now we've got instantaneous US dollars across borders, and we can save in dollars, and buy international goods in dollars.

58:56He said, it's a game changer. RAOUL PAL, Yeah. I would say, just to ride on your coattails on that answer, even just ease of payment. Take everything else, like you said, just ease of payment, even in the United States. I mean, so like we rely on credit cards, right? But there's a whole game, you know, that happens with credit cards. There's not a good way for us just to like spend our cash without a corporate intermediary, even in the United States. And so like the U.S. is now launching FedNow, which like I don't actually know where it is. But if you look at a country, you mentioned Brazil, for example.

59:46So Brazil has PIX. OK, it's Brazil only. But they have a system where you can basically keep your money at the bank or with like their version of the Federal Reserve. And it's it's no cost, zero dollars, no interest. You can put your money in there and then you have a PIX and you can buy buy things and sell things and use PIX. So you can put money onto your PIX account and send money from your PIX account with no fees whatsoever. And for like you or me, not necessarily a big deal. But for a person that sells coconuts on the street, where I go to, I visit Brazil a lot, that's huge, right? They're not having to handle cash.

1:00:37India rolled this out to 1.4 billion people, the United Payments Interface, which is unbelievable. No middlemen, instantaneous payments to small micro payments on a mobile phone. And then the government built an API, and you can build fintech companies on top. It's just like, oh, cool. Yeah, it's really cool. It's really cool. And they're about to launch a CVDC because banknotes are still so prevalent. And the idea, and I've seen the working example, is you have the banknote on your phone and just flick it to the other person. That's awesome. Yeah. Again, people say, how much cash do you actually use?

1:01:20Basically, I use cash. Valet parking is about the only time I ever use cash. Well, maybe your haircuts. No, I don't even know. I just add a tip to the credit card. There we go. Yeah. RAOUL PAL, And OK, the final question, what worries you the most in this whole space? Because you see a lot of bad things too. CHRIS BROADFOOT, Yeah, honestly, the things that, yeah, we see a lot of bad, but even the bad stuff that we see, I think from a macro view, the micro view worries me. I see crypto being used for bad shit, and that upsets me. As long as the internet has been forever. Exactly. Everything else, cash too.

1:02:11But from a macro view, that's where I was heading. It's like any neutral technology is going to be used for both bad and good. And so long as the players in the space that are building are ultimately well-intentioned, even if they're not getting it right, I think it's okay. And so, and I do see crypto heading in that direction. So from a macro viewpoint, actually, I'm not, there's not like any particular thing, but I'm like, oh God, this thing that's coming, I'm like, you know, I'm really, I'm really stressing out about it. I don't think that. I think that, I think over time, again, from a macro view, crypto is going to be adopted more and more.

1:02:55We're seeing a lot of players move into the good guy camp or trying to be a good guy camp. and ultimately the bad guys will just get snucked out, you know, via Inca and other players. Yeah, maturity leads to that over time. Once it gets more mature, it becomes that way. That's it. Also, I mean, a super interesting conversation. I think we'll try and share some of the research reports that you guys write because you write some stuff. And I think people will be interested in it because it'll just give them a different perspective and understanding. So I'd love to share those. But Adam, thank you ever so much for unveiling a little bit about what happens behind the scenes in the cryptocurrency markets and what you guys, others are doing, how the governments all play out.

1:03:36It's been super interesting. Thank you. Thank you so much for your time and for having me. I really appreciate it. Not at all. Take care. Bye. So I think you can see from this conversation that blockchains are much bigger than any of us really understand. They're being used by so many players in so many ways. And we think of this surveillance state as where we are today and what's going on. But what we can see is the coordination and the data required and the data analytics required to do that. It's a long way away. But that on-chain, we can see who's doing what. And behind that is the story of finance.

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Raoul Pal welcomes Adam Zarazinski, CEO of Inca Digital, to share his journey from intelligence and law to founding a crypto-focused risk management company.

They explore the intersection of crypto, national security, and financial innovation, address challenges like scams and illicit activities, and discuss the transformative potential of blockchain technology on global markets. Recorded on November 25, 2024.

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