🔴 Liquidity & Timing the Banana Zone: Drinks With Raoul Pal (Round 18)

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1:17It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot.

1:52Well, lovely evening, degenerates. Good to see you. Good morning for you, those in Australia. It's the middle of night in Dubai, so I don't know why you're doing that. And good late evening in Europe. That was a cryptic start. It's probably good that you see that we're kind of teasing this incredible new platform experience, because most of you on Real Vision can't get on the platform because so many of you have come through, you've broken it. It will work shortly, and you're fine. Remember, at the end of this, the general chaotic drinks with Raoul, we go across the Real Vision platform. Then you can ask me questions about the presentation, wine, food, travel, anything you want.

2:27Anything's fair game. I will generally insult you as well. So I hope you don't mind because I'll probably be drunk by the end of it. So if you're not a member of Real Vision, I'm going to say this a few times, realvision.com forward slash join. You can ask the questions. Don't go through there yet because everyone's broken it because there's about 10 ,000 members going through immediately. So I've got to admit, well, first, no, let's just talk about last time. the last one I did was in Spain I skipped a couple of months because frankly it was fucking chaos I drank on camera about two and a half bottles of wine myself um I was home alone in Spain my girlfriend had gone back to Texas and I had nothing to do but drink with you lot and so a drink I did we had some amazing carvers um I was quite proud of myself um but it it kind of went downhill I think we were going for like two hours in the end i had all of the snacks in the world um and it was a lot of junk drunken gibberish and that was just from you lot i was obviously immaculately behaved but this time we're going to try and keep it classy you know we're trying to educate you guys because you know half of you are kind of millennials got no fucking clue how to act what to drink or anything else you know you've been brought up watching crappy tv so we're trying to help you all in how to actually navigate this world as a human and not as a child or a man child and so what we're drinking today is we are drinking we're going i said very fucking fancy today we're drinking what i is my favorite champagne in the world don perignon on it's the 1996 it was rated 100 out of 100 um and it's one of the greatest champagnes i bought this when i was still working for the hedge fund um in london and i was trying to buy wines for my 40th birthday and so i bought this i don't know i was 30 something i bought this put it in storage and then ended up opening a bunch of it on my 50th birthday instead and still have um two or three cases left it is an unbelievable champagne when champagne gets this old it really tases changes its flavor it becomes this kind of toasty brioche that's probably too fancy for you words you people like sweet bread sweet bread not sweet breads like testicle stuff uh sweet breads like um croissant that's like a brioche um and um it has this nuttiness to it and look at the color the color goes this golden color still got plenty of fizz to it but just ultra deep deep champagne and i don't know this is not easy to buy at all so those of you drinking along with me today obviously how i like to think about this when we think about civilizing the great unwashed is listen if you're having something before dinner you have an aperitivo we talked about this before generally champagne light cocktail something to get the palate going if you're in the south of france you might have pastis or you might have anise something like that or you might have campari if you're in italy negroni if you're feeling racy yeah or a manhattan if you're in the US have a cocktail a martini classic pre-dinner cocktail you shouldn't be starting before dinner with red wine that's just wrong it's just wrong and frankly it's not winter even Australians it's not even winter so just no um we go to that later and for God's sake don't be barbaric and drink cocktails over dinner it's just not acceptable unless you're a teenager or a university and somebody's made an awful punch with ever clear in it but if not just i like to start with a proper palate freshener which is why i'm often drinking white wine or something or um or champagne on this show if you are in europe watching this and i know there's a horde of germans and a bunch of drunken english people uh and swiss all watching this you can be enjoying your red wine because you've had your dinner you're now thinking well do i light the fire september it's fucking freezing in london it's probably been cloudy for two months now you know fine have a nice glass of red wine if you're in the u.s i'm expecting white wine champagne cocktails australians with your tea or coffee i found a good hack is bunderberg so bundy and coffee great drink that might work for you or obviously beer we talked about this is your breakfast go to kiwis you're easing out of your breakfast beer going into your mid-morning um cloudy bay and then you'll be colour buzzing and ready for the day.

7:15So that's how I like to do things. That is so, so, so exquisite. And we've always talked about we don't snack, we don't eat a drink without snacking. A pair of T-vos are crucial. Today we have a little bit of salsichon from Spain, which is saucisson in France or salami in Italy. A bit of manchego with rosemary on the rind. Delicious. It's a little crunchy snacky bread. Need a bit of crunch. Some toasted marcona almonds from southern Spain. And I've got a special treat. My girlfriend Lindsay tells me that this is american caviar and i was interested to see what it is so i'm going to try this on camera it's called i think spaghettios oh spaghettios

8:22okay so i'm trying to explain to you the finer elements of life the texan bird is giving me this it says it contains water okay fine tomato puree enriched pasta with niacin ferrous sulfate themine monotrite riboflavin folic acid high fructose corn syrup less than two percent of salt enzyme modified cheddar cheese um fucking hell enzymes calcium chloride water disodium phosphate enzymes vegetable oil corn canola and soybean enzyme modified butter beta carotene for color acidic acid paprika extract skim milk and the last ingredient natural flavoring i mean this is a fucking carcinogen in a can what's wrong with you people so i want to talk about because i've been away i was away in spain for two months and I just want to talk a little bit about I'm going to show you some holiday pictures and maybe compare them to yours so I'm going to do a nice little presentation for you because I've been thoughtful to present the holiday pictures

9:41so so here is I want to compare and contrast the United States we could substitute England in for this You could put Lidl in Germany within this or whatever you have in Australia. I don't know. But what you have is this is where you'll be shopping. This is Costco. And this is where I was in the Valencia market. Look at all the hams hanging up, the fresh fish, the fresh olives, the shellfish. So that's where you holidayed in Costco and I holidayed in Valencia. This is where you will be eating, maybe even tonight. This is the Olive Garden. Look at the lovely electronic ordering, the wholesome, vibrant ambience of old people who are probably got diabetes.

10:32And this is where I was eating for lunch. A little bit of shellfish, taillinas, a little crunchy bread, an espencat, which is roasted red peppers, salt cod, olives, olive oil, and a few other bits of magic.

10:49so your holiday how holiday should be done your choice of food how food should be done obviously your choice of drink how drink should be done by the way this fucking wine is amazing patho senorans alberino i think i've done it once before on the show this is the Selection de Añada, which is unbelievable. It's astonishingly good. Can't tell you how good this is. So if you can find it, Pathos En Jorans, basically pretty good, but this one is monumental. It's just a spectacular Spanish wine. And then I thought, you know, I wanted to think about this carefully. Again, let's just go through Costco, Valencia market.

11:40Olive Garden, Valencia Street Food. Your food, my food, your drink, how one should drink. And I wanted to leave you with this, is we are simply not the same. And you are not serious people. It's time you bucked up your ideas and got with the program. Okay. That's enough of the insulting over your barbaric tendencies. You need to be stopped. You simply need to be stopped. there's nothing i can do to help you more than i'm doing because if you continue in the path you're going you're going to have no friends and you're going to be dying of diabetes or some awful illness because of your spaghettios has given you rectal cancer i mean i might die of liver cancer but you know it's a more elegant way to die okay what have we got going for us oh christ it's going down quickly already just need to be careful gang um i don't know how you guys are doing but i hope you're enjoying your drinks obviously if you're on x or um or on the real vision platform even better then um feel free to post what you're drinking because i think everyone wants to enjoy show how sophisticated you are um what's amazing is is there's always some section of various countries ganging up saying but what about our wine and so i'm going to give you the portugal yes we love your wine greeks yeah you got some interesting wine too we get a few of those um spain italy france yeah we get we get it germans no shit um austrians yeah austrians got some good wine um america big fucking marginal really canadians no just not good really honestly um australians yeah some kiwis

13:33well sauvignon blanc uh no anyway enjoy yourselves with this lots to go lots to do i've got presentations sort of the general unfucking your future banana zone where are we all of that crap what we're going to try and do um as well so just to let you know i'll mention this again is today i'm going to give you a bit of a run through give you the alpha i know you want the alpha that's all you fucking come here for i'm trying to educate you all i actually care about telling you how to um to have a slightly more grown-up lifestyle um or civilized let's call it civilized all you care about is show me the fucking banana zone chart um we are not the same but that's different um so we're going to go for a presentation do the stuff realvision.com forward slash join that's where you unfuck your future because you guys really need it you guys watching on x you're addicted to x you should actually go to somewhere quality and learn something as opposed to reading some bullshit from some bloke on twitter who said look my chart um you know back in whatever 1932 the market crashed i just all of it is nonsense nobody's got a macro framework nobody's done the work It's just utter bullshit.

14:47You hang out there all day hoping to get some alpha. Just come to Real Vision. The fucking community is amazing. Look at the trade ideas section. Some of those are up thousands of percent. And these are consistent alpha generators. So come across to Real Vision. Meet the community. Come and ask me questions after this. More importantly, tomorrow, Julian, Bittell, and myself are going to do the full recap of the everything code from top to bottom. We've done it in YouTube. It's one of the most popular videos we've ever put on the channel. We'll do the full update for those of you who are new to this, want to understand what an actual framework of understanding is, why we do so much work in it, what it all means, and that we don't pluck stuff from thin air.

15:31And you'll see the entire framework again. And then on the Real Vision platform, that will be on X, YouTube, and Real Vision, and you'll be able to... Sorry, Paul? oh and spotify as well um and then you can come across to um real vision and ask questions directly to julian and myself we'll be around for about an hour asking questions the presentation about like an hour hour and a half have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared try with plus 500 futures you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet with just a few clicks you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo see a trading opportunity, you'll be able to trade it in just two clicks.

16:15Feel ready? You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with plus 500 with over 20 years of experience plus 500 is your gateway to the markets visit us.plus500.com to learn more trading and futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone not all applicants will qualify plus 500 it's trading with a plus it's fucking everything you need to know if you can't watch the ama and ask the questions you can always come back everything's recorded you won't see it on youtube you won't see it on X or Spotify, you'll only get the Real Vision platform.

17:11realvision.com forward slash join.

17:16We'll do that again, and I'll do that long pause where you feel a bit embarrassed because I'm just sitting here looking at you, waiting for you to do something. While you're doing that, if you are on Twitter, if you are on YouTube, Spotify, just give us the fucking like button, the subscribe button, all of that stuff, right? It actually does help, pays for my wine bill, if we ever get a sponsor. This show's not sponsored. It's not really sponsored enough. I think this is a flagship show. This is like the best show on YouTube. You watch some generally old bloke get really insulting and shit-faced while insulting you guys.

17:55I mean, it's like, what more could you possibly want? So I'm expecting a high-quality sponsor who doesn't mind swearing, drunken behavior, insulting the customers. okay I know Paul's going but we do have figure markets we understand and we're very grateful for figure markets and Mike for that but we want why are we not being sponsored by Dom Perignon for fuck's sake I mean surely they just want to be associated with somebody like me I mean I don't get it are you laughing from the cheap seats over there really really okay a couple of announcements she's still sniggering uh we got rv meetups going off around the world penny asked me the great queen penny asked me to remind you that um we've got i'll read these out so listen in you can go to realvision.com forward slash meetups if you're a real vision member to figure out where everybody's getting together having drinks they're amazing all over the world Tomorrow, September 25th, West Palm Beach.

19:09Very fancy. They're probably drinking Dom Perignon for breakfast in West Palm Beach. I know that's Palm Beach. You guys are the poor cousins. Friday the 26th, Dubai. Sold out. Thanks, Penny. That's helpful. 3rd of October, Seattle. You can meet up in the rain. 4th of November, Amsterdam. With RV squad presence. Nico Bijan, possibly Arta. So there you go. that sounds special in Amsterdam you're probably all too stoned to watch anything anyway early December London date TBC uh 22nd of October now we're going differently in dates Penny you need to put more order love um an evening with David Matin which is a private dinner in Chelsea for exponential uh exponentialist subscribers only there's a few seats left so if you are an exponentialist member sign up for London if you're in Europe fly over it David amazing you'll have a fantastic evening so those are the meetups we'll keep rolling them out around the world you can get to meet up hang out with fellow dgens um we're all over the place we're sort of educated finesse dgens at real vision unlike you great unwashed on twitter and youtube you just until you come through to real vision itself realvision.com forward slash join you're learning right you're learning um then when you come through you you'll feel elegant and successful you'll feel sort of civilized and like you're better than everybody else.

20:33That's what I find happens on Real Vision. It's a magical feeling. The secret to being a great investor is seeing the world six months ahead. The macro investing tool at Real Vision helps you understand the macro seasons and allocate your assets accordingly. It's like having a crystal ball, pure alpha from myself and Julian Battelle. You can try it out by signing up for Real Vision, Real Vision Alpha for 30 days. The link's below. Okay. So the next phase, I introduced a... Sorry. I'm eating snacks and talking at the same time. Somebody always picks me up on it, so it's disgusting. So I'll just do that.

21:11Realvision.com forward slash join.

21:16Okay. What are we going to do? The new section, mean tweets. Let's do it. Bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum, bum. People are fucking awful online but this is funny this there's some funny ones here because they're so just like i don't know what's wrong with people so let's go into the mean tweets uh okay here we go some of the mean tweets i've collected i mean i literally get thousands of them so here's um good friend die with the most likes one of the greatest um artists in um in the u.s and also you know top of the par when it comes to digital artists nft artists so him and i were having a little back and forth talking about this he made me because i bought a one of one of his i've just bought another one i think you saw me to post it yesterday and he made this and he does this for somebody who owns a one-on-one he creates a meat character it's a long story it's quite a long rabbit hole, but a meat version of your PFP.

22:17So he took my punk, made a meat version. And these are other versions of other PFPs. So anyway, I made a comment about something, we were joking around. And as ever, somebody goes, these all look like absolutely shit. So Nick, 4-3-4-4-4-4-4 number, which usually means you're from a bot farm in China. These all look like absolute shit, not absolutely shit. They all look absolutely shit. Anyway, you'll learn English one day. I think you have English studies in wherever you live. Okay. So I'm talking about Van Arman. This is a lot of NFT, mean NFT tweets seem to be the thing right now because maybe I wasn't plugging somebody else's coin, but I'm talking about Pindar Van Arman, one of the most incredible creative kind of nexus of AI and art geniuses in the entire space talking about stuff.

23:10And, you know, it's a glimpse into the future, blah, blah, blah. are Lindsay Young. Thank you, Lindsay. Garbage is considered good. Just thank you for your input. And then Futu Mush. Doesn't matter how much fancy wine you drink, if you like Oasis, you have bad taste. Which makes me laugh. I mean, I don't know those of you, I was lucky I went to the New York Oasis gig at the MetLife Stadium. I mean, fucking unbelievable. Unbelievable. The scenes from London were even more outrageous and Cardiff and Dublin, LA was amazing, Chicago, Toronto, and I've just seen the scenes from Mexico. It was even more stupid.

23:53That was once in a lifetime gig. That's the best that they could do. It doesn't matter how much fancy wine you drink. If you like Oasis, you have bad taste.

24:05More NFTs. You know, you need an NFT collection. I've explained it to you. to start either by CryptoPunk, if you can't afford one, by CryptoDickButt. This is me trying to give people the easy entry. Your future self will thank you. Okay, back on holiday mode. Frank, 355994644, bollocks.

24:28I mean, why? I mean, this has clearly got to be bot farms, but why do the bot farms just insult people? Is it like Russian antagonism to just get everybody riled up. Oh, I don't get it. But anyway, thank you, Frank, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5. The Wise Owl. He lost me when he told people to rotate profits into NFTs. That will do me. I know my NFTs are up 300 % in ETH terms in the last 18 months. So sorry, Wise Owl. Yeah, a bit of a moron. Jane, 1, 2, 3, 4, 9, 7, 5, 5, 5, 5. He's a shill for many chains. He lives on a private island with his wife. And dogs. He has a lifestyle support, so he has no reason to be anything other than a sycophant for ETH plus ecosystems.

25:18Cardano didn't make him rich. They did, along with stock trading before that. I don't understand a word of this, but I don't live on a private island. Grand Cayman, the last time I checked, had a big airport with lots of people traveling. In fact, we've had a whole party here for reals. you know obviously i've requested i could be the sultan of grand cayman but um i'll have to stick with being the sultan of little cayman um with his wife i don't have a wife and dogs all my dogs are dead um here's a lifestyle to support um other than a sycophant for e plus i don't even understand this but thank you jane you're so sweet uh the white the right wabbit this nft stuff is a load of horseshit how much you're being paid to pump this crap just like the last round nobody wants a digital idea of real stuff dude it's like trying to polarize the metaverse owning fine art in real life is already a rich people's circle jerk this is just a cyber joke i don't know who shat in your cornflakes this morning right wabbit but i hope you have a big spoonful of it red cloud chad thundercock um dude stop trying to dupe regular people into buying these worthless nfts you have enough money this is a finite set among infinite sets zero value thank you red cloud i told this nft thing made people quite spicy i mean it's art and if i want to spend money on art it's good for me and don't give me that bullshit about right click so i can right click save that no you fucking can't because you can't sell it and i can sell that piece of art for over a million dollars uh raoul is already the villain that guy is such a boner my god um thank you i'm touched by your generosity of spirit jamarion smiley with benson gumbel i'm sure these people actually don't exist um but thank you i appreciate being your boner um another one talking about another piece of art i bought ral you're out of touch with what art is and what is shit you still believe you clown still believe in jpeg game for a million dollars

27:43um dominic schwarzer this is disgusting what a poor take to buy that crap awful I don't know what's wrong with people. It's hilarious. Okay, here's me buying another piece of Dai with the most likes art and talking about how amazing it is and how disturbing the art is and what it represents. Satoshi's Rebellion, Craig Beck. Thank you, Craig. Garbage. I'm sure Dai actually, Dai with the most likes, will appreciate that comment because he has a good sense of humor. And then here we go. These are the comments we always get, and I need your help on this kind of stuff. This geeky nerd at Rue Cannon, we haven't forgotten Luna.

28:24Perhaps you have, but we haven't. When you see a quote about Luna, and you all know by now exactly the truth behind all of that bullshit, just say, hey, listen, fuck off. I'm not rude to people online, but I can rude to people on my show. Just reply, oh, fuck off. Medieval Fox. Dude, he's been calling the banana every day for a year now. What kind of king of spot on is that? LOL. Again, just reply, oh, fuck off. All of these win banana morons. And I'll explain why and we'll show you about the banana stuff. But what I want to explain about the banana stuff, I'm just saying because I've got notes because I've got so much to get through.

29:09The banana stuff drives me mad. And it's this sort of whimpering little dim-witted minis who are just wanting instant gratification and don't actually fucking listen to anything I say. So let's just go through just a very quick example of what we've said about the banana zone. And let's see if you can just use your dim-witted little pea brains to somehow understand. when we said in April, no, sorry, we said leg one of the banana zone. I came back from Africa. If you remember, we did the drinks with Raoul, and I said this is the start of the banana zone. That was August, the banana zone phase one.

29:53We then said the liquidity was coming out, and this would be the phase one correction. In April, we very publicly did a flash update and said, banana zone phase two is starting. And we're still in banana zone phase two. In fact, banana zone phase two is going to be so big. This is suey, right? So since the start of that, we're still up 670 % on the start of that. But no, not your fucking banana. It's because you're the moron with the bag of shit. You need to have quality assets, not the bag of shit. Let me show you the bag of shit chart. So this is others excluding the top 10. We're still miles away from breaking out.

30:40And that's because you've got a bad asset allocation. This one, that did fine. Solana, Ethereum, Bitcoin, Rockstars. BNB, Rockstar. There's all tons of stuff. I gave you the don't fuck this up thesis. It's all there. So banana zone phase two started here. And we're going to get into the acceleration zone of that comes ahead. we'll come into that but you guys have got to learn patience you are utterly moronic with the short-term time horizon like where's the banana why is my bag not going up and you're sitting on i don't know some useless mean coin that you're hoping is going to save your ass um and it's unlikely to we've said this don't fuck this up keep it major projects big 10 percent of into all the stupid shit.

31:35But no, you think, no, no, I need that 100. I've got to have the 100x. I'm never going to do this. And actually what you get is 100 % loss and everything else has gone up 20x. And you're poor. So let's not be poor. Let's unfuck our futures and try and follow the don't fuck this up thesis. Thank you. Right. We are going to get into the presentation.

32:05um i'm trying to find this meanwhile i'm going to get this presentation set up i'm probably gonna have a puff of my vape because i'm starting to get that point now and you find it well you are now used to me i'm i've come out of the closet that i have a nicotine habit so i shall do that i should drink my wine i'll get my presentation you'll go to real vision because after this presentation, you'll want to ask me questions. I'll be there to answer them. And then tomorrow, Julian and I do this mega fucking everything for you guys, all for you. And as a thank you, you will join Real Vision, realvision.com, forceless join.

32:44And I know a bunch of you friends in the NFT market, you're watching on X and you're too lazy to come across. Thank you, but no, let's come across to Real Vision. And also the YouTube people, all the others, the Xs, follow, like, all of those. Thank you, Raoul, for educating us about fine wines and occasionally making us unfuck our future. So you do that. I'll set this up and we'll be back in a sec. Realvision.com forward slash join.

33:15Were you yawning over there? Sorry, that's the fucking peanut gallery.

33:25Am I boring you? Is there anything else I should be doing to make it better for you? Really? Fucking. Right. Okay. Let's go. Let's get the presentation. Okay. Ready to share.

33:46Okay. So this is from Global Macro Investor, which is my stupid high-end research show. It's been going for 20 years. However, most of this is available in Real Vision Pro. which is where you get to talk to Julian and I and Andreas, who's up like 60 % this year in his portfolio for you guys, and Jamie Cootes, who's another rock star. You get to speak to all of us, read our research, all of that. If you're too lazy or you haven't got the money, Real Vision Alpha is where you get the macro investing tool. It is where you get all the handholding and everybody just says, thank you, Julian. You smatter his ego.

34:25Really, don't do that. but um you should be joining this stuff because it's really there honestly to unfuck your future and you think you're going to be saved by reading some stupid bullshit on x it's not going to change you what you need is to understand and have a framework our framework comes from this my framework comes from 30 years of macro and global macro investor for 20 years okay let's start settle down children pour yourselves a drink if you haven't done so already And let's do a quick run through the charts. Tomorrow, there'll be over 100 charts with all of the details that you nerds want to calm you down and realize that everything's playing out really nicely.