Real Vision Alpha SNEAK PEEK: Shooting the Sh!t with Raoul Pal & Julien Bittel

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1:42They really do everything. These guys are true OGs in the space and they're good friends of mine too. So please go and check out Bitwise. They're really excellent. Go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all that they've got to offer. That's bitwiseinvestments.com or just email them at james at bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Raoul sent you. Anyway, there's a million ways to access crypto. Explore how you can access it best with Bitwise. And remember, carefully consider the extreme risk associated with crypto before investing. Anyway, thanks so much. Hi, everyone. I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision.

2:17Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating. It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much. Hi, I'm Raoul Pal, and welcome to my show, The Journeyman, where I travel to that nexus of understanding between macro, crypto, and the exponential age of technology. Now, as you guys know, I wear many hats and do many things. One of the things we do on Real Vision that you guys don't get to see, or certainly if you're in one of the free tiers on Real Vision, you don't get to see, and that's a show called Raoul and Julian shooting the shit.

3:01And it's exactly that. It's you getting a chance to look over Julian Battelle and myself as we kind of go through our process of looking what's going on in markets and understanding what this means for all of us. It's a fun show. It's a relaxed show. It's a casual show. But there's usually a huge amount of alpha in it. So what I'm going to do, I'm going to share one of those for you so you can see behind the paywall the kind of things you get at Real Vision. So you get a deeper understanding of my views and Julian's views, which I know you like. Now, if you do want that deeper understanding, we've got a special offer on right now, which is you get three months free subscription to Real Vision extra on top of the subscription that you pay for.

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4:23And some of them have been absolutely amazing. So anyway, enough about Real Vision. Let's go and look at Raoul and Julian shooting the shit. I hope you enjoy it. I'm traveling this week. So I thought it's a nice way for you to see behind the paywall. Now, bear in mind, this was recorded about two weeks ago at the end of May. So obviously, some things have changed, but you'll get the idea. We can't give away all the alpha immediately. Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

5:07Hey everyone, welcome to Shooting the Shit with Raoul and Julian. It's always fun because we're catching up. I've just got back today and I'm over in Little Cayman. So Julie and I actually haven't caught up. So we're just going to catch up and you can get to listen in. So you put out MIT last night, go through some of the basic stuff. Cause we need to go through this for GMI later anyway, cause we've got to write GMI this weekend. Yeah. So let me pull up the prez. Do not watch the video. What's wrong with you? Mate, I'm so bored. That should be the first thing you do in the morning is MIT. It's on.

5:43um are we sharing that yet not yet huh so i think some of the just very very high level stuff not going to go through the grid um i'm just i think what the only thing that we really need to to cover is that basically things are now going according to plan and this is not updated from yesterday because during the presentation two of the regional pmis came out we're still waiting for Chicago tomorrow. But if we just take all the others and you put them into this chart, this white line is significantly higher. So the rebound that we were expecting, as I showed you yesterday, Dallas came in stronger than expected.

6:19This is all going. You remember when I was calling? And why this matters, right, is this is the driver of old season. This is the driver of a lot of things. This whole ISM pickup story, which everyone's been wrong-footed on because everyone was like, no, it's going to go to zero. We're going to have a recession. It's awful. And we've been saying the opposite. Yeah. And so all this data is just beats, beats, beats, beats. And so now SESI's exploding higher. And the point why this matters, as I had said in MIT, which of course you didn't see, which, okay, is that like we had, apart from the - I had a thing to go out to wash my hair, maybe fingernails.

6:58Laundry, all the whole wash dishes. um but we had like just like on the way down we had to we had to reprice now we have to reprice stronger growth momentum right so i think that this is really positive and obviously this is just heading higher into the summer months uh not going to go over financial conditions but i think the only two charts we really need to talk about you know or that we probably care to talk about by the way it's so funny look at this like this is gmi financial conditions versus truflation i'd been saying that the numbers are going to bottom then i got the i got the email from the head guy there what's his name um stefan yeah stefan and he said this was on the 20th so this was last tuesday and look at look what he says inflation is climbing so the craziest thing about this is that well who needs true inflation if you've got gmi financial conditions now financial conditions is bond yields the dollar and essentially oil or major well it's not yeah Yeah, it's commodities.

7:55So basically what I did is it's a regression basically on the ISM and then I put it on other things. But you have to take the basket of commodities, so oil, copper. But what you do is you regress on the residuals of the regression to avoid multi-colinearity. So it's several different commodities, but some are weighted more heavily than others and oil is one of those. Now, it came off a lot, right? Yeah, it came off. What impact is that going to have? That's the impact that it's going to have on GlobalM2. Ever wish you could access cash without selling your Bitcoin? Ledin makes that possible. Ledin is the global leader in Bitcoin-backed lending.

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9:17Learn more at www.ledn.io. That's right. And so what's interesting about that, I was looking at it this morning, is that we have the same chart versus Bitcoin, right? Three months on three months. So the three month rate of change, which is not in this pack. But that The top point there, or the high, is actually August, which then stacks up with the V, which then stacks up.

9:50Sorry, I had a lot of charts in this pack. Really, that's surprising. You generally are quite light on charts. I know, I know. Which I think then stacks up with this, right? Because Global M2 here is not updated for the dollar's recent move higher. And I actually think the dollar may head a little higher here. I'll show you that chart in a second. But if that's right, then this top bit in global M2 will come lower and should set us up for that corrective phase, which that other chart also matches. And as I pointed out in MIT… But financial conditions leads M2, right? Financial conditions leads M2.

10:29But here you're talking about the rate of change versus remember, it was that whole thing of the everything code dominoes. There's a bit of a difference in the lead versus rate of change versus outright.

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11:42And so basically what here they would line up to say around August, we should see something. But we have to see, right? It really depends on what the dollar is doing. because if I just shift... But we're expecting financial conditions to continue to ease, right? Because we think there's another leg lower in the dollar. We think rates either stay flat or move lower. Yeah, so that's right. So, but if I think, if we look, if we just skip back up here, I'm going to come back to the dollar.

12:10Where are we here, right? So now we're coming lower. Obviously yesterday, we moved a little bit higher, but I think that ultimately the trend's lower. But I also think over the next, if you look at, guys, I'm just going to change screens here. That's all right. To Bloomberg. If we look at the dollar here, right? I mean, we've counted down to wave five and we had a 9.13.9. And this is basically where you and I were like, this is going to go higher. The truck's not on the screen, is it? No, it's off. Yeah. Okay. Is it? There it goes. Now it's back. Yeah. Then it came lower, and then we unlocked a wave two, or now we've unlocked a wave three of potentially five higher.

12:57I don't know if that plays out, but you can see that the counts are all stacking up here pretty heavily. So in the event that the dollar does move higher to, let's call it 104, which DMARC wave count suggests, which seems a bit high to me, but nevertheless, this would unlock that corrective period. which which is looking like august into september maybe we don't add the length of it yet yeah so that's why i was saying at mit this the next move in the dollar is going to tell us everything that we need to know about you know the ism you know when that peaks out everything else but i think whether this goes higher or not over the medium term not even medium term i should say with the short term we still think it you know it goes lower um the thing i was just going to point out Which sets us up for phase three of the banana zone.

13:44So phase two correction would be this, if it continues to trend sideways or a little bit stronger, that would be a corrective phase when everyone starts thinking it's all over, we'll give up now. And then we should get phase three, which is the final leg in the dollar, potentially a leg lower in rates and the more speculative frenzy that comes at the last part of this. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now, it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030.

14:24It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. Yeah. And just because I have this open, and I want you to pull up your charts, is I was looking at Solana Vol levels today just out of, you know. But I also don't know why they cut. Did you notice that they cut our time series? No. Now it only goes back. I could have sworn it went back. Do the XSO current put the other version of it? I tried. I tried. It's the same. Really? Yeah. Anyway, but here's the point. Solana Vol levels have collapsed to below 50.

15:05And here's, so the last time that this happened, the last two times that this happened was September 27th of 23. And then Solana went on to basically 10X. And then June 24th of last year. And then we went up, what, around 100 % or so. So that's kind of interesting because I hadn't realized that the vol stuff has collapsed so much. No, me neither. So I'll do the same. We can do the same for Bitcoin and ETH and look at a few other things for GMI. The other thing I was just going to, I think you were going to point this out as well, is I do see a 13 daily on Bitcoin. The only problem I have with this is if we look here, you know, kind of December time, liquidity was draining and city economic surprises had peaked.

16:00so you know the two drivers both if the market's priced off of consensus expectations and now needs to reprice stronger growth coming in versus the opposite and liquidity is actually rising if we talk about m2 versus the opposite which was taking place here what's your thought on this i mean because it has been the market's been trading a bit well go to the m2 chart and there's some wiggles in that chart that give us some some clarity oops that's the wrong thing let's go here all the way down you see there's that nice wiggle that it's not uncommon to get a slight correction whether this correction runs further i think it's just forming a flag well and also if we zoom in on this so we come to by the way, this has been working, as I said to you before the call, this has been working really well.

16:58But if we kind of zoom in on the same chart, I don't see why this would work that well, right? No, it shouldn't be working wiggle for wiggle, but it appears to be right now, which is weird as shit and I don't trust it. Yeah, neither do I. But point is, is that I don't think that this is unusual. And that 13 on the daily doesn't really line up with the other stuff that we're looking at. And here's the other point is like, yes, Bitcoin's oversold. Yes, equities, sorry, overbought. Yes, equities are also overbought. But again, the last two times we triggered overbought readings, this was the boring zone.

17:34Remember, a long drawn out boring zone. This was obviously Jan. But in both of these situations, liquidity was draining. And here's an RSI overbought reading and the market just went higher. It feels much more like this than either of these two events you know what i mean yeah it's just i think everybody finds it frustrating because they want to just go up every day or every week and it just doesn't work that way it goes with spurts and if you miss those opportunities which is why i don't like ever being out of the market because you miss it yeah well the other thing um without what i which i found really funny is i mean bitcoin's up like 50 off the lows or whatever it is 40 something and then the market drops two percent and people were like oh you know is it over it's like guys calm down you know then let me just show you my i got a couple of change screens guys to a couple of the charts here and i'll let you share yours which i i mess i guess we you and i probably have a few of the same charts but we might as well show mine first because they're usually better um but so this is the the bitcoin one hour chart and looks a bit you know i mean messy as it's either a flag or it's got another leg lower it's either an abc correction or it's a flag yeah i think yeah i think it's a flag but this is kind of the range that i would watch this is what you and i were talking about earlier when you were on the plane uh to little this is looks like an inverse head and shoulders, right?

19:09Yeah. And then when you zoom out. Same as the Tesla one. I'll show you that in a bit, but it's interesting. And then if you zoom out, let me remove this. This is still the big setup, isn't it? It's gorgeous. Yeah. And then XRP is boring, but this will explode at some point. Yeah. This still feels contextually like the right chart, but I think that maybe the hack kind of put it down a little bit below the intraday closing highs, which I would have preferred it didn't, but even if you draw it through the lows, it looks fine. I also think that it's really clear if you kind of just look at it like this.

19:51Yeah, exactly. All right, show me what you got. Let's see what I've got. If you can stop sharing. I will never go up sharing.

20:08so i've been looking and oh fuck that's not what i'm trying to do so firstly bitcoin dominance this was try to get to the nine it kind of would have been nine that day it was i put out that tweet saying bitcoin dominance has peaked and it peaked it went up put in another nine and i think it's going to continue to fall from here so that's like the start the alt season but really it won't fall until we start getting below this kind of 61 and a half level something like this 62 if it does that then the much bigger game is at play i think i don't know whether that does no no we kind of had a trend line here well if that's right we just yeah we just retested and and and push lower that's right um so that's that's one uh that's interesting to me um solana again it's got this 13 like bitcoin has looks like it's a wedge uh there was that spike but generally it was like this inverse head and shoulders a bit of chopping around here next leg will be higher when that is whether we need to go a bit lower first sure he was the kind of same to me if i actually go to my normal sewage chart i mean there's nothing much to say right here it's i think this this is some sort of flaggy pattern this is obviously we have to ignore because that spike and down and back up again but somewhere here is some sort of just corrective pattern like we've seen a million times in the past um doesn't yet look like it wants to break higher um so i don't know what's chopping the market but maybe it's just the m2 chart that we looked at before you know there's just a bit of chop to be had still just as everyone starts getting really bullish because everybody's opening one of these new kind of micro strategy copies and everything else um so i think that ETH, I've not been using these charts in Little for a bit, but ETH just continues to look good from every level.

22:17Where's my daily chart? That's the weak line. They're all fucked up because I've not been over here for a bit. There's that inverse head and shoulders. Yeah, the inverse head and shoulders. It's a bit almost scaling screwed. It all looks good. I mean, it's just rejected here. maybe this all comes down back down to 2300 or so before then finally making the break doesn't feel doesn't feel well wildly unlikely and then because those are doing that everything's doing the same i mean eth bitcoin same there's like an inverse head and shoulders here um let's just move that somewhere here is like an inverse head and shoulders i think again this is the classic sign of alt season i think somewhere here once it once it breaks this then we're going back up here and that'll be the start of something much bigger i think um finally and that's the classic sign of some sort of old season um what else what else i've been looking at so there's not really much to report right now as you said things are kind of been this corrective pattern doesn't look a long-term thing it looks like it's kind of next week or something like that um yeah so we wait and see on the other stuff i mean fuck me our call on hood was good well i was going to tell you i mean i was just looking at even the calls at the pro level um gmi got them sooner so they're higher but even at the pro level tesla calls are up 360 60 % coin calls are up 115%.

24:00The hood calls that we put out on GMI are up more than that. And even just the outright, right? QQQ edition at pro is up 14%. Yeah, I know. Big moves, but we, yeah, we got that, that inverse head and shoulders there on Coinbase. That was a, that was big. Yeah. And if it still feels like bit corrective and then the next move, because the chart in hood we look at the weekly chart is uh not in hood in coinbase is a very very very big inverse head and shoulders and this chart pattern is a monster something something around here we break we break that previous high this level and this thing is literally going to a thousand yeah um so still super keen on that um what's rec lab doing rocket labs i mean rocket lab rec lab uh rocket lab is doing beautifully yeah we added that as well that looks good yeah i mean we added it somewhere down here yeah um now it's actually counting to weekly eight um so maybe it pauses but it's look at rocket labs looking excellent so if i look at the daily version you know we're back up at the all-time high so that was that was another great ad we've traded that twice really well actually uh tesla just great and it keeps doing this this is like ETH, but it's actually broken through.

25:41Now, whether it fails to break through or not, I don't know. But again, it's just the Tesla chart just is so good. And the long-term one that we've used in the past, the log chart, is spectacular. So I still like those. Semis, that looks good as well. We just need to break a level and start trending higher from there. But semi-semi let's change it to the weekly I mean I don't see any reason why this just isn't this repeated yeah does a bit of fucking around at the highs again and semis will have another leg can't say well that that's not going to happen considering what is going on in AI right now the other one is 10 year yields 10 year yields on the weekly have gone nowhere so everyone's all the fretting and screaming and shouting about yields and the world's going to win, nothing has happened.

26:38But when I look at the daily,

26:42we've got a chance that yields are going to, we've got this 13 and this 9, but we haven't seen that. Whether we come back down, it feels like more like 2017 where yields actually don't go anywhere. Yeah, that's what I have been saying. And I saw the 9 as well on DMARC. and it feels like they'll come lower. Yeah, that's possible. And the dollar, you know, it tried to push higher yesterday, tried to push higher today, and it's just come smashing back down again. But the 9 and 13 count is something to take very seriously. And again, it doesn't really – it's going to give us a signal for what happens at the back end of the year.

27:27But if we go back to that chart you were showing of 2017, it's kind of suggesting that these corrective patterns eventually fall away. The market digests this huge move that we had. It's a monstrous move. And then we go to another leg lower where we think it probably goes to somewhere between 95 and 90. So again, there's nothing I see is particularly... Well, certainly nothing in equity land is bearish, but we're getting at levels of all-time highs where you get a bit of congestion. That will make sense. Nothing in crypto concerns me in any way, shape, or form. It's just chopping around here. Feels like we're just going to be weaker for a bit, digesting various bits of news before we have the next leg.

28:14Well, and it's also, just to put things into perspective, since our flash update on the 7th of April, the S &P 500 is up 22%. The NASDAQ is up 29%. Bitcoin is up, as I had said earlier, 46%. Solana is up 84%. ETH is up 93%. And SUI is up 116%. And now the market's overbought. That's all that's happening here. And the thing that I pointed out yesterday is that when you think about pure quant hedge funds or whether they're momentum-based or however you want to Think about that. Some of these funds go straight to net short on an overbought reading. So this is just profit-taking. It's all it is. So the market's digesting the news.

28:59We're overbought. Certain people are taking profit with the hope of buying a bit low or whatever that is. So that's just why I think we're kind of chopping and people are waiting around for something to happen. But we're digesting a big move in markets. And it's really interesting to see how strong the ETH narrative comes back. And I've been saying it for a while is like, you know, people can write off ETH, they're ridiculous. ETH has enormous amounts going for it. And now we've seen this new MicroStrategy's version by Joe Lubin of buying ETH. I also think the financial system uses ETH a lot more.

29:37And I think ETH outperforms Bitcoin all the rest of the cycle now. And that's not uncommon. If we're right about the ISM, then that's how it should play out. That's right. And Solana should over time outperform ETH, but ETH's got catch-up to do, so it will be corrective on that cross. But eventually Solana should outperform it, and Sui should outperform Solana. I don't see any reason why any of that. In fact, I haven't looked at the Sui Solchot. Let me just share this.