The Exponentialist EXCLUSIVE Peek: The Next 5 Years Will Reshape the Entire Economy ft. David Mattin

29 May 2025 · 1 h 15 min

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Podcast Summary: The Exponentialist EXCLUSIVE Peek: The Next 5 Years Will Reshape the Entire Economy ft. David Mattin

Introduction This podcast episode features Raoul Pal and David Mattin discussing emerging technologies and societal changes. It is part of their monthly Fireside Chat series within The Exponentialist community, where they focus on macroeconomic trends, investment opportunities, and the implications of rapid technological advancements.

Key Themes and Topics Discussed

The Exponential Age

  • Definition: Refers to the rapid technological advancements influencing various sectors, including macroeconomics and crypto.
  • Timeline: Pal posits that we have approximately five years left before significant economic transformations due to AI and robotics.
  • Investment Strategy: Emphasis on digital assets and crypto as protective measures against the upcoming economic changes.

Global Perspectives on AI and Blockchain

  • Middle East Initiatives: Countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE are investing heavily in AI and blockchain as foundational elements for their future economies.
  • AI Investments: Saudi Arabia's commitment to AI, including the announcement of a national AI strategy, indicates a major geopolitical shift focused on technology.

Insights on NVIDIA and Technological Collaborations

  • NVIDIA's Role: The company is central to AI infrastructure, collaborating with governments and businesses to build AI capabilities.
  • Taiwan's AI Supercomputer: Collaboration between Taiwanese government and NVIDIA for building a world-leading AI supercomputer demonstrates strategic partnerships in technology development.

The Changing Nature of Work and Corporations

  • Corporate Adaptation: Discussion on how some organizations are effectively integrating AI, while others are lagging behind.
  • Disruption of Traditional Models: The potential for small teams utilizing AI to outperform large corporations is highlighted.

Human-AI Interaction

  • Emotional AI: Companies like Microsoft are exploring AI that can interact with emotional intelligence, providing companionship and assistance.
  • Personal Development with AI: Encouragement for individuals, especially students, to engage with AI tools for learning, creativity, and efficiency.

Future of Energy and Computing

  • Solar Energy Acceleration: Acknowledgment of China's rapid advancements in solar technology, positioning it as a major player in future energy.
  • Kardashev Scale: Discussion on how future technologies might drastically shift our understanding of energy consumption and intelligence, leading to a new evaluation of civilization’s advancement.

The Concept of Hyperstition

  • Definition: A term referring to ideas that, once articulated, gain power to materialize into reality.
  • Technology as Living Force: The conversation delves into the idea that technology evolves similarly to biological life, striving towards intelligence and efficiency.

Key Takeaways

  • Importance of Engagement: Listeners are encouraged to actively engage with AI tools for personal and professional development.
  • Investment in the Future: Awareness of the implications of rapid technological change is vital for making informed investment choices.
  • Collective Intelligence: The podcast encourages a hive-mind approach, fostering community discussions to navigate the future challenges.

Conclusion The episode encapsulates the urgency and excitement surrounding technological advancements, emphasizing the need for individuals and businesses to adapt and innovate in response to the changing landscape. Pal and Mattin invite listeners to join The Exponentialist community to further explore these themes and contribute to ongoing discussions about the future.

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1:55They really do everything. These guys are true OGs in the space, and they're good friends of mine too. So please go and check out Bitwise. They're really excellent. Go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all that they've got to offer. That's bitwiseinvestments.com, or just email them at james at bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Raoul sent you. Anyway, there's a million ways to access crypto. Explore how you can access it best with Bitwise. And remember, carefully consider the extreme risk associated with crypto before investing. Anyway, thanks so much. Hi, I'm Raoul Pal and welcome to my show, The Journeyman.

2:32The Journeyman, as you know by now, is my journey to that nexus of understanding of macro, crypto and the exponential age of technology. I tried to bring all of you along this journey by talking about different component parts, whether it's technology, crypto or the macro, and often I bring them all together as well. So you think of it as your learning journey because you're piggybacking on my learning journey. Now, one of the things I've been passionate about for a long time now is this idea that we've got five years left before the economic singularity, when AI and the robots change the structure of economies, business models and our lives in general.

3:13It's something I've been trying to focus people on, saying digital assets and crypto are one of the only ways for you to protect yourself. And we've only got five years before we just don't know how things work anymore. That's all part of my exponential age thesis. This thesis that technology is going to go exponential in its adoption and its impacts on everybody's lives. Now, most of you don't really yet grasp how big this all is. You see bits of it. You see bits of AI posted here and there. None of you are using it enough. And nobody really understands the profound impact it has on civilization itself.

3:51Now, myself and David Matin started writing about this in Global Macro Investor. maybe four years ago. Well, I started writing. I brought David on to help me. So David writes for Global Macro Investor, my premium research service. And we decided that people so wanted to know more about technology, its impact, where it's all going, what it all means, that we spun up an independent research service, which is not part of Real Vision, but it's available on Real Vision, called The Exponentialist. And The Exponentialist has formed itself into this amazing community where we not only write a lot of research around this topic, but we also talk to Real Vision members or Exponentialist members.

4:33And what I want to do with you today is share one of these conversations so you can see how unique it is as a product, the kind of conversations we have, and I think it's going to leave you slightly unsettled and hopefully quite inspired. Anyway, enjoy the Exponentialist fireside chat with myself and David Matin. Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

5:13So welcome, everybody, to the monthly Farside Chat that started with David and I. Now it's all of us. We all come together and talk about some of this crazy stuff that is going on in the world, how to make sense of it all. And what I love about these conversations is they are conversations. It's not just a Q &A of David and I. Yes, we do that as well. But it's also everybody adding in their thoughts about where this journey is going because it's, as we can tell, and we say this all the time, it's just accelerating, accelerating, accelerating. And it's almost tough to make sense of. So I love the idea of getting this kind of hive mind together to make sense of the world around us, what is happening, what it means for us, where it's all going.

5:51um david how are you my friend very well thank you ral how are you think you've been a busy man i have i've been traveling a lot you know really interesting i was in abu dhabi dubai in qatar and i was at the abu dhabi investment council which is one of the big sovereign wealth funds and um they just made it very clear that everybody in the region and tom will know this because he's out there as well is that they've all been given the mandate number one is ai and number two is blockchain. Our core thesis is what they're building their entire future country stack on. And this is the whole Trump visit that went there.

6:31It's all about the same thing. So they know they've got abundant energy, which is part of your thesis, David. They know they've got abundant energy. They know that they're going to have to adopt technology at scale. They've got young populations that are growing. And they think they can be not only a regional leader, but a world leader in these two things. And so the mandate is invest in this, build this. And it's really exciting to see. I mean, everyone there is still trying to get their heads around what it means. But this is everything from the oil company through to the sovereign wealth funds, through to the general population, through to businesses, through to the education system, the system of government, all of it.

7:12That's what's up to grabs. And that's not just in Abu Dhabi, which tends to be very well thought through in this, but it's Dubai, it's Qatar, and it's Saudi. And Saudi really is a big player behind the scenes in this whole thing. So they have this cohesive strategy about what the world is going to look like, and that's what they're accelerating on. Yeah, it's really interesting, isn't it? And there are a few sort of exponential age times geopolitics things to get into this month. But one of the big things was Saudi Arabia announcing this humane AI, like just this massive nationwide strategic push on AI, hundreds of thousands of NVIDIA chips, tens of billions of dollars a year.

8:02And this is something we talked about at the the gmi event in california just how deeply mbs sort of gets it right gets the exponential age and you just sense a country now that knows the or you know knows the oil wealth is not going to last forever and ever and is just making a massive strategic decision around intelligence and the exponential age and it's really interesting to watch it we've probably all mid-curved nvidia because we were assuming that there was going to be a boom-bust cycle because Microsoft and others will have pre-ordered what they're doing. But now we're seeing nation states with endless capital availability building yet more stuff.

8:49And I just can't see how that stock doesn't continue to really perform because it's at the epicenter of everything still, and that doesn't go away, and Taiwan's certainly being another. Yeah, exactly. And I mean, you know, we can gallop straight into the other really interesting thing this month. I mean, Yensen Huang was just speaking at Compudex, the massive technology conference in Taiwan, right? And talking through the way NVIDIA sees AI, you know, fascinating this journey from AI to agents to physical AI, which he's talked about before. But if you just want an overview of where AI is heading, it's a brilliant talk.

9:31Announcing some really interesting stuff that we can get into, I really want to get into. But one of the big things he announced was...

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10:40A strategic partnership to build a massive AI supercomputer in Taiwan, right? So this is NVIDIA, the Taiwanese government, and TSMC all coming together to build a world-leading AI supercomputer in Taiwan. And it just strikes me that that really taps into all kinds of fascinating stuff. One of the things it taps into is this idea of a grand bargain that you and I have talked about before that I think came out of the GMI event the year before last. That's right. You can just see how interwoven USAI companies and TSMC are becoming to the point where outright conflict just becomes unthinkable. And it's like you can have, you know, OK, you can have TSMC factories in Arizona.

11:33But in return, U.S. companies, basically NVIDIA, need to agree to do hundreds of thousands of chips in Taiwan to do a world leading AI supercomputer. and at some point we know that these are going to break apart into spheres of influence right um and we're kind of arranging that now that's what it feels like to me and we're going to be so woven through each other that outright conflict becomes unthinkable it's really interesting to see the strategy player and yeah going cycling back to what you said we did we have mid-curved it because yeah this is another kind of god knows how many other hundred thousand nvidia chips right So where's the boom and bust cycle when you have sovereign nations wading in like this?

12:18If you're enjoying this conversation and it's making you think, I need to know more about this because it's going to impact myself, my children and everybody around me, including my business and my investments. then why don't you come and join us at the exponentialist realvision.com forward slash the future and you can become part of this incredible community where we all figure it out together and i'd love to have you along for the journey it's the game of sovereign nations because it has to be but it's the future of everything you know if we we saw one preemptive version of this with nuclear technology you know in fact stopped large conflicts because you end up scaling this technology and it becomes a way of balancing power.

13:04And this is going to be, this is the new power, right? Intelligence is the new power, is the new nuclear weapon. And you're going to see, I mean, what the Middle East is doing is building their own Arabic language versions and everything else. And we're going to see this regionalization of this, as you say, but at the middle of it is a bunch of technologies that is just not going to go away. And again, people, it's hard to keep your eye on all of the balls at the same time. You know, so like people are like, AR, VR has dropped off people's minds right now. But it won't do because all of this brings yet more compute power and ability within that sector.

13:45Robotics is all over my extreme now as more and more of these robots get better and better and better. We're going to see, obviously, the robo-taxi launch, I think, in Austin, Texas, next month. That's going to be, OK, we've got Waymo. But now we're going to start to see the Tesla rollout. And then soon after that, we're going to start to see a much larger rollout of the robots, which, again, nobody's prepared for. They think it's quite amusing. They don't realize they're going to be ubiquitous very fast. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. And it's just, it really will be, if this grand bargain plays out the way we've been talking about, it really will be a sort of deep testament to the truth of kind of trade interdependency being a stabilizing force and a force for kind of peace.

14:35You know, we're so dependent. Everyone wants this technology. They have to build it out. but you're so dependent on other power blocks to do that, that the costs of falling into outright conflict just become ridiculously high for everyone. It's a nice, discreet, testable thesis because we're going to get to see what happens. You know, there are people all over my feed and I subscribe to some great newsletters basically saying we're cycling towards outright conflict between the US and China, okay? And you can build a very credible case for that based on this kind of AI and compute kind of Cold War that you feel building, our case is very different.

15:18And it's going to be super interesting to see how that all plays out. David, what is the atmosphere in London about this? Because we talk about this a lot, the fact that Europe is so off the map. Maybe France has got some decent stuff going on. In London, do they even get it? Or are they just cynical about the whole thing? what is the for the newspapers what are the what are the tv saying the atmosphere the atmosphere is anemic and no they and no they don't get it do you know what i mean it it this is why you know i i read what saudi are doing and it's like there's a country that really really gets like whatever whatever you think about the regime and the politics and all the rest of it there is no question that there is a deep understanding of the kind of geopolitical and technological strategic importance of this.

16:12The Labour government here came in and cancelled a project to build an AI supercomputer in this country. There are some noises around it and there's a little bit of investment, but we are just so far off the map here, really. It's depressing. And if we can't really sort that out quickly, yeah. Our global relevance wanes even further. Well, because you become a slave to the superpowers who have it. Yeah. It was the same with military, that Europe didn't have a military, really. And then so you become a slave to the US and NATO. And here, they're going to become a slave to this. So I just don't understand it, but it's fascinating to watch.

17:03The other thing that I've been watching is Elon, now he's not so involved in the government, has been spending a lot of time talking about the Kardashev scale. And, you know, obviously, he runs solar businesses. But, you know, his fundamental belief is all we need is solar. And there's a lot of debate going on about, you know, how fast China is accelerating solar. and it's adding something like the entire world's nuclear plans for the next 10 years per year. And it's interesting because in the US, people are cynical of solar because they're a big energy, the largest supplier of oil to the world.

17:48But what I'm seeing out of China is this unbelievable acceleration in solar. And it's just going to keep driving investment. I mean, this is not going to, I mean, the Saudis understand this, all the Middle East understands it, is they have more solar than they have oil. And what does that mean? And how can we do something with it? Yeah. Yeah. I mean, the story of solar across the last 10, 15 years is just incredible, particularly in China. The exponential growth in solar is just like one of the most stunning exponentials human beings have ever enacted. And, you know, again, you start talking about solar, you get the solar skeptics, all of that.

18:33The sun doesn't always shine. It's going to be such a deeply important part of the exponential puzzle. Decentralized solar is going to be so important. The decentralized stuff is, A, I've introduced you to Jen Zhu-Scott, who is on the Yeah, but Siri would mean she's building decentralized power plants. Exactly. And that interview is booked. So all exponentialists stand by. Jen is coming to the platform to talk to me all about this, and we're going to go deep on this stuff with her. She's also got a VC, invests a lot of AI, so she's ultra smart. So you'll enjoy that conversation. I don't know if I booked you the conversation with Meltem Demiris yet.

19:15We need to organize that. So Meltem was a famous person in crypto, and she saw the opportunity of what this is going to lead to in terms of the need for energy. And she's built a VC about alternative energies, nuclear distributed energy grids, all of that stuff. She's another ultra smart lady in that space. And you need to talk to her because they're doing some cool stuff as well. Yeah, I see her on Twitter. And it is. Yeah, she's fascinating. And it is very cool. And again, like geopolitically so important because, yes, the sun doesn't always shine, but it's also very hard for your enemies to stop the sun shining on your country when it wants to.

19:55Do you know what I mean? It's just a powerful, essentially free energy source. And you mentioned the Kardashev scale there. Yeah, I mean, that actually has been much on my mind for the last few weeks. You know from GMI that I'm deep down, very deep now, down this kind of whole rabbit hole of energy and intelligence. That's always been at the heart of my thinking about the exponential age. The last few GMI essays, I've been thinking about what I call the post-human economy, positing this kind of post-singularity economy that's all about the conversion of... It's a pretty good article just to talk about the Kardashev scale.

20:34Well, that's going to be the next one. Yeah, that's going to because I'm about to blow. I mean, I'm sure Elon is a secret exponentialist reader and GMI reader, and I'm about to blow his mind with a revised Kardashev scale that is not just it's not just a measure of how much energy you're using. It's instead a measure of how effective you are at converting energy into intelligence. And my core argument in that essay will be that that is actually the principal measure of a civilization's advancement. Right. So it's like a revised Kardashev scale. Call it the Palmatin scale. Yeah, I agree with that.

21:14Another thing that's that hit my radar screen was. i can't remember who it is i think it's china now they're putting trying to launch 28 000 satellites and their idea is to do computing space and the reason being is a you're closer to the sun and elon said about this is like basically all satellites are robots plus solar which is a really simple way of thinking about what they are and china's doing it to put compute Why? Because of, I guess, gravitational stuff, temperature, conductivity. There's a whole bunch of advantages. And you kind of think that that is another part of this story that is yet to play out, which is how space is going to be.

22:01It doesn't have to be on Earth that you generate the solar for the compute, because we have the ability to send the compute, like Starling, down to Earth efficiently. Exactly. And again, taps back to this idea. So can you capture and convert energy into intelligence at a planetary scale? But then can you do it like at a solar system scale? Can you do it at a local galactic scale? So we're just so, so early. I mean, I know that sounds grandiose. We go there in the exponential list. Don't tell everyone else on Real Vision that we're slightly nuts. we're so early in the journey of conversion of energy into intelligence and i think that that is the fundamental story of of the universe and of human beings and of what this is all about or at least that's the argument i'm building well isn't that in this series of essays we go this is straight down straight over the cliff again is if the universe's purpose is to know itself and that the universal consciousness is the fundamental principle of the universe, then its entire job is to convert energy into consciousness.

23:13Right, exactly, exactly. And that's encoded in the kind of starting conditions of the universe. And we're on this long journey of conversion of energy into intelligence. And human beings are a kind of staging post in that. And you can almost start to feel like when you talk about these kind of us building out this technology into space to get closer to the sun. Right. You can almost now start to tangibly feel how we're building something living. It's like a plant that wants to get closer to the energy source. Do you know what I mean? Right. That's exactly. Yeah. You know, it and I wrote about this in the last exponentialist essay.

23:52You know, we need to start to see technology as a continuum of life. um and it's yeah it's like a plant now reaching towards the sun i think that that is the that's the next big sort of civilizational shift is to do this at a solar system level um very very interesting stuff and by the way that's what i meant to say all the the seeds of these ideas are also present in um jensen's speech at computex you know he's like he's like um nvidia's not an ai company or a technology company it's an infrastructure company we're building factories And what those factories do fundamentally is they turn electricity into tokens, into intelligence output.

24:33He means AI tokens, like large language model tokens. And he's like, pretty soon, we'll measure the economy by how many tokens we can create per second and how high quality those tokens are. Those are exactly the fundamental ideas I started to lay out in this recent journey of essays, where you build an economy that's all about the efficient conversion of energy into intelligence. And I imagine kind of these huge decentralized marketplaces that are all about humans and AIs bidding for tokens. And you get market dynamics that optimize the conversion of energy into intelligence. And that becomes the fundamental game in a post-human economy.

25:16Money kind of fades away because money is about material scarcity. The only constraining scarcity left when you have material abundance is just the energy input. And you're trying to turn that energy input into intelligence because everything is downstream of intelligence. All the logistics, the healthcare, like the knowledge work, obviously, the robotics, just everything runs on intelligence. yeah so i've been i've been building this out in gmi it's had a great reception i've had people emailing me all this stuff i will bring it to the exponentialists now you know in stages not all of it because that's not fair to gmi and you know a little later but it's absolutely crucial that exponentialists understand this model because it's now like at the heart of our thinking on what this all means.

26:09Another thing that was amusing, because this is in line of what we've all talked about, was Satya Nadella saying about Elon, because clearly Microsoft is now going to feature the Glock three and a half model and stuff like this. And Nadella said, there is no person I've ever seen who is able to manifest technology into being, from idea to happening. And it continues to be the case. So he was talking again the other day about you hear him dropping breadcrumbs, and whether you like Elon or not is irrelevant. He drops breadcrumbs like Starship. He said, we're going to build a bigger one. This is the biggest thing that ever has flown, and this is not full scale.

26:57Meanwhile, he's pitching the boring company in the Middle East. and everyone's like what the fuck is the boring company got to do with all of this and as i've explained the boring company is actually for mars it's how you get to um build on mars is underground because of the atmospheric conditions are tough and if you measure the boring company machines and starship they're very close and the idea is clearly that you're gonna have to send to space. And yes, you can put them together with the robots in space itself, but really you have to get these massive machines to Mars. And all of this is what he's trying to do.

27:39It's like he's manifesting every single part of this whole ridiculous mission bit by bit, and people just can't see it. Can't see it. Yeah. Yeah. Yes. I mean, exactly as you say, whatever you think of him it's undeniable that what he seems to be manifesting is on a world it's almost hyperic order yeah exactly superstition is it feels like when i speak to ryan ferris about this like hyperstition is sort of a principle of the universe somehow that yeah we think about things and therefore they become things yeah yeah well i went off on one because you used the word hyperstition in our last fireside chat.

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28:25I went off on one in the last Exponentialist essay about this and tried to tie together. I don't know how, I mean, you know, this is thinking aloud. So it's always kind of first draft thinking, but try to tie together this idea of living technology, hyperstition. Why does technology advance in the way it does? And essentially built out ideas I've always carried around how technology is a living force and it's evolving just like living creatures did. And that evolution was in some way inevitable. Like it's, it was built into the starting conditions of the universe. You know what I mean? So these hyperstitions are kind of, and a hyperstition is, is defined as a sort of story or idea that once articulated gains a kind of strange power to make itself become true right and what i say in this essay is that these hyperstitians were in some sense always true they're not invented by us they're discovered they're discovered truths about the universe a humanoid robot is a discovered truth ai is a discovered truth it was always there waiting to evolve just like human beings were always there waiting to evolve um and we're when we when we articulate them we sort of uncover that truth that was always there and this process of evolution is somewhat inevitable and that taps into ideas of biological evolution following deterministic parts right if you look at biological evolution like the eye has evolved multiple times in different places and that's also quantum.

30:04Hyperstition works in a quantum world because you have this, everything is a possibility. And therefore every future state is a possibility and a probability. And therefore you can path direct by doing it. You know, I've talked about this just in our personal lives, how you can manifest your own destiny by kind of living in the future in that future quantum world and then forcing it into being is much easier than moving forwards and trying to aim for something. living in the future turning back and say how did i get here is a much easier way and you know that how do we get here is right consciousness needs to expand how does it do it well there's so many parts of it happens um i don't know it just feels like it's something to do with the reason that hyperstition exists and has always existed is to do with the quantum state yeah i think there's something to that and and then elon's gift is something around um being able to reach out and grasp and articulate these hyperstitians, these truths that sort of want to become true, that are in some sense already true, just better than anyone else, and then orchestrate tens of thousands of people to make that happen.

31:15And it's increasingly hard to see how that is the case because he appears on the surface to be a chaotic person. There's no two ways around the disconnect between the Elon you see in public ever so often, or you see on X, right? And the man who has orchestrated thousands of the world's smartest PhDs to build a reusable rocket. Like I find that incredibly hard to square, but on the other hand, there they are. So something is happening there. It's the hyperstition of a man who fell to earth. The man who feels the B.B. Bowie film happening all over again. and that's what it is. Yeah, I mean, if there's anyone out there who can persuade me that there's something of that nature going on, then it's Elon because I don't get the guy who has time to fall into these ridiculous arguments on Twitter sometimes and the guy who's also done that, but he has done that.

32:15There you go. There you go. So let's open up to any questions, any observations, anybody want to chat about anything? Because again, it's always, this is a conversation amongst us all trying to figure this stuff out. Anybody got anything? Raise your hand. Alessandro, go for it. Can you hear me? Just about. What about now? Yeah. Okay. Well, it's more of an observation. So speaking of AI, what really matters here is the data, right? So not just the models, right, but the data. So far, we've been using a lot of the human-generated data, but we haven't been exploiting much of the nature, you know, generated data, if you wish, right?

32:59So satellites you mentioned, IoT, decentralized physical infrastructure. I just wanted to hear your thoughts about it. It seems like there is an interesting convergence of intents here. Now, I also happen to be, you know, working as a space engineer. So I just wanted to send the caveat. Yeah, so supercomputing is interesting. Space-based solar power is interesting. data centers in space is interesting. But all of this hinges on one factor, that is launch cost. And right now we're not there, right? So if Elon really fulfills the promise of Starship, then yeah. So if you can launch at$500,$300 a kilo, that's possible.

33:40Otherwise, the current prices were way far out to make it viable economically. And I guess over time, prices keep collapsing over time anyway. So I think it's like directionally the right way. At what point did the price collapse cheap enough to get more space hardware up there? The idea that you raised, this is something I spend a lot of time thinking about in weird states, is you're right. The compute we're looking at is based on the data that humans have generated plus observable data. When the largest amount of compute that actually happens on Earth is nature at a scale of which we can't comprehend.

34:22And if you believe in that principle that everything is compute, which I do, and that everything is building a consciousness in some way, shape or form, or adding to that consciousness, every tree, every atom, every drop of water, every rock, everything, everything, every ant, everything is a form of compute. It takes energy source and does things which it learns about and then somehow passes that information on or stores that information or adapts using that information so that knowledge is held. The answer to this, I think, is there's no way we can do that yet. You know, scientists try and observe the nature of plants.

35:04We're trying to talk to whales. You know, we're trying. We just don't have the compute and the ability to understand it. But for me, once you add quantum to enough compute, quantum computing to enough energy, you're going to get to ASI. And ASI can't be ASI without this. I think how I would think of ASI is it needs to understand all of the compute that happens in Earth and around it. And that, my working hypothesis is that ASI, once we have it at that scale, is then a node that is a, that then adds to the universal compute or consciousness or blend with other nodes. It's not the node, because the universe is so much bigger than we can ever possibly fathom.

35:55but it is a node like we are nodes from you know both our ancestors human society and the things that we observe around it but we're only one of the little nodes each human is part of this hive mind which is now coming together that's how i think about ai and particularly agi it's a node of all human intelligence but that's just a small fraction as you're saying so i i really think this is a fascinating area and i think again we don't understand that we have to have asi to be even to understand what the hell we're even talking about but we kind of directly know it's right there's a bunch of um you know whether it's the panpsychists or others who have come to this agreement i'm seeing a lot of this kind of physics philosophy mathematics uh all coming to the same astrologists all coming to the same kind of conclusions,

36:53that it's much bigger than we quite yet imagine, that physics is not this solvable thing because there's so much where we just don't even see or understand or know. Thank you. Yeah, and I have a really interesting conversation on that coming to the exponentialist as well. Again, coming out of the GMI conference we just had, Raoul Glenn Gould, who has a startup called new Atlantis and essentially my understanding of his startup is they want to build a kind of massive simulation of the world's oceans and then do all kinds of interesting kind of AI stuff with it and Glenn will come to the exponentialist in a few weeks and talk about what new Atlantis is doing he was talking to me about it in California it's absolutely fascinating all this stuff around kind of protein discovery and building simulations of the oceans and then gaming out different scenarios really really interesting stuff so we will get an insight into some of these questions around the natural world and ai and data natural data and ai from glenn and also adding to that there's something i've bookmarked to go back to when i'm going to write gmi uh in a couple of weeks time is is there is now increasing evidence that ai is coming up with a unique thought, unique things, unique inventions, unique understandings that humans have never had.

38:22And this moves on from Alessandro's point is that we only have the data that we have so far, right, the whole of the internet and other bits and pieces, as you said, IoT and all the other things that we've got. But as soon as it starts doing its own thought discovery, it becomes infinite which is this kind of self-learning model that i think we're going to see a lot more of in ways that we don't understand which is the step to asi because it needs to figure out a bunch of stuff that we don't know and we're seeing it i think it'll come out of the biology chemistry space first yeah yeah and on on that go and check out everyone should go and check out um google deep minds um alpha evolve that they were talking about i think just last week it's very they've been running it for a year but they only spoke about it last week alpha evolve and essentially they got the gemini models to um to think about the kinds of algorithms involved in the training and inferencing of the gemini models and it it's it it did all this cool stuff that basically fuels its own, will make its own training more efficient, right?

39:44So one of the things it did was improve something called the Strassen algorithm, which is an algorithm that's been used for matrices calculations for like 50 years, right? This thing's been relied on for 50, 60 years. It started thinking about it, found an improved version, and in so doing has made the training of its own next iteration more efficient and again this taps back to exactly what i'm thinking about so talking about earlier so you now have ais thinking about how can i deliver more intelligence value per unit energy right and that's just going to cycle round and round and round now you have a cell you have an iterating self-improving cycle where ai is going to improve AI is going to improve AI is going to improve AI.

40:36And until you cycle to incredible intelligence output per unit energy. Because its purpose essentially is to increase intelligence per unit energy. Right. So its job is to find, to squeeze the lemon as hard as possible, and then try and add new technologies to increase the size of the lemon, essentially. Yeah. Yeah. And it's using, I mean, it's called Alpha Evolve because it's using evolutionary principles. Like it's throwing out loads of different solutions and letting them do combat. And it's kind of a Darwinian competition of which solution kind of wins. Do you know what I mean? And all of that is to enhance energy efficiency, which is basically what evolution is.

41:15Evolution's like this huge grand competition for survival, for efficient use of resources. And this goes back to what got me into this whole thing in the beginning was um alpha go uh whatever it was when when basically it learned how to play go extrapolate all the other noise this bloody thing learned how to play go by teaching itself never saw a human game it taught itself the rules and then be every single human in existence and it did that all in a week or something stupid and what people didn't realize they're like oh we've just turned taught a computer to play a game no no it taught itself and then it's so good that it played games that no human has ever played before and that is the signal in all of the noise that apply that idea to everything and everything changes yeah it's not it doesn't take what we think the world is, you know, our construct of physics or biology or genetic sciences.

42:25It doesn't do any of that. It does what you said. It goes to battle with itself and has a gazillion permutations and combinations of testing. And it comes up with truths, which is astonishing. Yeah. Yeah. And yeah, I mean, now I remember what set me off on this. I mean, you know, you said you talked about AI having sort of new thoughts, creating new knowledge. I mean, you're totally right. The AlphaGo system devised Go strategies in days that we'd never seen before. This is an ancient game, thousands of years old. It devised incredibly creative strategies that we'd never seen before. That is nevertheless subjective.

43:05You can argue about how creative its new strategies are. Even Go experts admit they're extremely creative. This Strassen algorithm enhancement is not subjective. It's objective. It has, without doubt, created new knowledge. It's improved an algorithm that we've relied on for 50 years. And it's an algorithm that will make itself better. So it's like feeding itself. So yes, we are in a world now where AI creates new knowledge, and that is going to cycle up incredibly quickly. Yeah, and people are not ready. As we talk about so often, people are not ready for what's about to unfold. I was just thinking about when you talk about this.

43:53I try and have a construct of how not to mid-curve all of this, and I see so many people. And it's somewhere between the left and right is like God is in the machine. Yeah. or it's like everything is magic. There's something that keeps you on the right path and doesn't get you involved in, well, right now we can't get enough compute clusters. There's not enough energy. There's not enough this. It can't do that. Do you remember, David, it was only a year ago that people were saying stochastic parrots, these things just are predicting the next token. So wildly wrong. Everybody is wildly wrong. Journalists don't get it.

44:32Nobody gets it. Governments don't get it. People just don't understand what this is. And I just try and keep that nice distribution curve and try and stay left curve and assume that that meets the right. exactly yeah and it's a it's a frustrating thing it's also a beautiful thing for us for the time being because the um the outsized disadvantage from being a person that gets it at the moment is huge you know what i mean like it if you want to be selfish about it being someone who really understands what we're on the cusp of and is capable of yeah just grasping that and of orienting yourself inside these exponentials is a huge advantage as an investor, but also just as a human being who's facing the next 5, 10, 15 years.

45:25Because there's going to be a profound future shock for humanity across the next decade to 5, 10, 15 years. It's going to be an incredibly disorienting time to be alive um and people and we will be too but a little less so right because we commune here every month we talk about all this stuff we sound insane to the outside world but but but month by month by month we're sounding less insane okay i mean i go back to like another thing to go and check out this month go and look at mustafa sulieman um you know the co-founder of DeepMind now is at Microsoft AI talking about, I want to turn Copilot into everyone's 24-7 emotional companion.

46:18We're doing tons of work on humor, on empathy, on understanding, because what people need to understand is that billions of people are going to have a close relationship with this kind of AI. This is something we've been talking about for years inside the exponentialist i was talking about it for years before that as i always say people would laugh me out out the door like when i would go into organizations and say people are going to have meaningful conversations with ais we're there now that's not even that's not even new anymore um but still most people don't get that that is what is coming and i'm close to someone close to for inside Microsoft AI in London.

47:04And he's like, it's all he thinks about 24-7. He just wants to build the ultimate AI companion guide philosopher that is just in your pocket, in your life, all the time. Amazing. Greg, next up with a question. Hey, guys. Hey, thanks for having us on today. Hey, a little hive mind here out of Ponte Vida Beach, Florida. But I'm lucky enough to have my eighth graders during finals week this week. So we've got triplet boys. They're here. And I wanted you to get a little motivation as to all the work that you guys are putting into this exponentialist and what it really means to us out here in the real world.

47:50So it's a one-to-many approach. So our hive mind goes out strong. These guys are our future. and David, I know you write about this a lot and you get these questions all the time. What do I tell my kids? So I thought no better opportunity than for them today to jump on and listen to you a little bit. Obviously what you just said, David, really hits home. You know, where all the things that are coming from and from our exponential future that is to be is what these guys are going to be working on someday. So I guess my question to you is really, you know, if you had a bunch of eighth graders in front of you right now, what would you tell them?

48:37um i'll give you my first piece of advice is turn on voice mode on your chat gpt and talk to it so ask anything talks about everything whether it's how to how to think about revising for your exams through to my friends being an idiot through to hey i want to think about how i do something on the football pitch whatever it is talk to it and let it talk to you just becoming natural around it faster than your friends will give you a huge advantage in life. And the other thing is, as David talks about a lot, is in the end when we're living with this super intelligence that's everywhere, the other great thing is just to be humans.

49:20Spend as much time that you can. Force your dad to take you traveling, see the world, meet different people, meet what humans are all about. Because the only thing the AI can't do is be human. so force your dad to take you to all sorts of places get experiences meet people create real connections and that plus the ai that's your superpower for me david what do you think yeah i mean i could not agree more i mean the first thing is please come to my house i do because i do have almost eight or two almost eighth grade boys in my house who you know refuse to listen to anything i say so the um the the experience here of speaking to eighth grade ish boys who who are listening to what i say is just absolutely thrilling for me inside i'm just euphoric right now i can't tell you what this means to me so thank you um yeah i mean i would just go with with what with what ralph said it's just you know if i if i wanted to encapsulate it there are lots of people around you right now who want to try to suggest that because AI is coming, nothing that you can give to the world will have value anymore, that human creativity doesn't matter, that human hard work won't matter, ingenuity, human intelligence, all that stuff.

50:40It could not be more profoundly otherwise. This is the greatest time. You are so lucky because it's about to be the best time ever to be a human being who has some kind of outsized ability in anything, right? If you're creative, if you're a great writer, if you're a visual artist, if you're obsessed with a particular sport, if you have a passion for engineering, whatever it is, if you bring that and put it in combination with AI and you start to do that by doing what Rao told you to do, which is just start using it. You can produce incredible stuff across the next 5, 10, 20, 30 years. It's going to be a brilliant time to be someone who is intelligent, entrepreneurial, creative.

51:32So cultivate a passion, bring your creativity, use AI, put it in combination with AI, and you will bring something brilliant to the world. The people who are kind of sitting there thinking nothing I can do is going to matter. So I won't do anything. I'm going to unfortunately are going to lose badly. But you have the chance to be to be huge winners. And that just starts with the same old principles it always did. Right. Work hard, be creative, develop a passion, find something you love and get good at it. And, you know, you're going to thrive. It's a great time to be your age. and everything you guys I think were saying earlier it just blows my mind what is going on in the world right now with AI like you guys were talking about how you guys are trying to make it almost human like with emotions and where it can talk to us and have so-called feelings that we have and I think that's just in the world today people just may need something like that yeah yeah absolutely i think we've got to stop thinking a bit of us versus them it's like you know people humans used to treat dogs like that and then we don't we treat animals like that and we try not to we realize that in the end we share a commonality of everything and that the difference between a digital human and a human is going to be really small you know in the future world whether it's 20 years time 10 years time the robots and the ai will have legal rights they'll have societal rights because that's the only way there's a fantastic really worth watching there's a fantastic uk series that came out like five years ago called humans and it's about the introduction of humanoid robots into everyday life and it addresses it from every angle like these should be ejected so it becomes like racism then it becomes well we need to give them rights it was like the rights of slaves because these were essentially the whole thing what it means for society it's just a really good show and it'll make you think about all of this stuff but in the end i think we're all the same thing they're just not as developed yet

53:56very intriguing fantastic well thank you guys appreciate you guys turning out and being part of this uh come back another time be amazing um just because we're all right at a time uh clive i think you're next up with a question i think you're on mute at the moment clive Clive you're on mute there we go there we go yeah sorry so yeah first off just to say Greg really good to see your lads there good stuff for them to listen to I wish more youngsters would tune in to these things and just on that which is separate to what I was wanting to talk about but I'm just listening at the moment to a book by Deepak Chopra.

54:47I don't know if you call Digital Dharma. And it's really cool. If you go to deepakshopra.ai, you can communicate with him. And I think, Greg, your son talked about, you know, people are going to need some help. And Raul's suggestion that you can talk to the AI. With Deepak's, you can talk to the AI and you get all of the Dharmic, Buddhist-related kind of how to stay calm, how to deal with life, etc. And you can just ask as many questions and delve into it as you like. So it could be interesting to have it. Have you not played with the Raoul bot on Real Vision? Yes, I have, Raoul. I agree with you on something.

55:38so what i'm trying to do there is actually got a call later today because the people from hey gen reached out who are building the voice ones and the avatars and i'm like listen the real answer to what i want to do is i want the video chat bot where you just come and talk to me and then i'll train it i've got a kid who's at london school of economics friend of mine's son i'm going to try and get him to train on the whole gmi back catalog to build this out but that i think is a really interesting thing is is having the a video version of yourself that you can barely tell the difference where you can just talk to it and you get different perspectives so i love that yeah and and i mean i found that really useful and i'm sure again the boys would find it interesting to pose questions like that.

56:30But my question before Greg was just with the uncertainty of what, and David, when you're talking about, which I agree, it's so hard to see where this is going to go. Even if we're paying attention early, we still have no real clue as to the impact. I know Rahul gives us till 2030 and then we really are in the wilderness. Is it realistic, do you think, for us to be selecting investments that we think will benefit when we've got such a disruptive playing field?

57:14i think the the big long-term bets we make in the portfolio are coherent you know it it's hard to see network effects are such that for better or worse in technology big winners tend to win even bigger and then win even bigger and win even bigger it's hard to see a world where nvidia and microsoft and tesla don't do really well out of the story we're telling um it's much harder to pick kind of ground up winners i think so so i don't disagree but i think that there's quite a lot of noise in those particular stocks, which links into the everything code, which is more about all the money and just the cycles and that printing, not so much about the AI.

58:18The reason why NASDAQ outperforms the S &P 500 and outperforms the debasement of currency is the adoption of technology. That is the excess return that you get. and that's the same with blockchain technology it's just a faster adoption curve right now because microsoft's been around for a long time so it is captured within these stocks we so not only do you do yourself the favor of offsetting the debasement but you capture excess returns you can just offset the basement by owning the s &p 500 or average real estate and it doesn't really get you ahead. But what you're doing is the excess return.

58:58So the NASDAQ since 2012 has done about 18 % returns, while debasements between 8 % and 11%, depending how you measure it. So that's your excess return you're getting, which if we go back 10 years, that's what we were told the return from the S &P 500 should be. Overtime should be like 8 % or whatever. So we're actually doing decently well from it. So it does do it. And if we get the right stocks, like we've managed to outperform the NASDAQ by the stock picks that we've got, because not everything is subject to this super mega trend. And those stocks have done very well, whether it's been Tesla, whether it's been Microsoft, whether it's been NVIDIA, stuff like that.

59:39So I think we can further improve and capture it. I mean, Hooked has run very nicely. but i'm do you see that i suppose they're driving stuff with ai really where hood is fits to me and i probably didn't write it up well enough is the more free time we will have the more ways we will amuse ourselves and we will amuse ourselves by gambling right speculating we all want to get ahead so the process is a there's a mega trend of which generates lots of stock market activity, crypto activity. So they are told keepers, but they're also doing prediction markets. And then in the future, the more free time we have, it seems to be pretty provable that humans like to compete with each other.

1:00:29And it feels that markets are a great competition. So that's why I've liked heard the speculative economy, I think is real and won't go away. But it also captures the trend of investing in the technology, the share prices going up, the adoption of blockchain, and it's all wrapped up in a neat little thing, which is an app on your phone that seems innocuous. It actually represents a much bigger mega shift in society. Okay. Yeah, yeah. Good. Thank you very much. Not at all. Hey, Tom. Hey. Yeah, I'll try to tie together this mid-curving concept into how to look at the corporate world, because I think at the moment, the stocks that we're all focused on are the picks and shovels of kind of the suppliers, if you want, of the eye world.

1:01:17But if you look at the demand and the users on the corporate side, I think portfolio analysis should start looking at which are the companies that mid-curve versus which are the ones that actually don't. And that's where effectively your investment differentiation should be. I mean, the bank that I work in, frankly, is mid-curving it. I mean, we deployed co-pilot, they pulled it out because they were concerned about a whole bunch of things. That's been seven months since. We just keep kind of going around and around in circles. The more I think about the corporate world, which then spills into how individuals adopt technology, is start really differentiating companies by who's mid-curving versus who's actually going hell for leather in terms of deployment.

1:02:04Tom, so here's the way I've just listened to you thinking about it. Is fintech disrupted banks by just not having a bank? Yeah. I think we should be looking at things like that where you don't need to be a law firm. And AI will be a law firm. We're going to see that kind of stuff happening, which gets around all of the mid-curve, which is basically the fuck you will do it ourselves. the clue to me is if if you can have a company without a legacy it department you you are effectively you're effectively with a winner that's the way to think about it and that's probably why robin hood has done so well you know my interview with vlad and i know vlad personally the speed of which they build is staggering yeah i'm because they didn't have any of the legacy stuff.

1:02:58They just said, this is a software issue and not a human issue. All the banks came from this as a human protective compliance, blah, blah, blah. He's like, how do I apply technology to do this more efficiently? Just came at the other way around. Yeah, yeah. I was curious, David, what are you hearing from the conversations you're having in the corporate world? Because it becomes such a stark differentiator to me. Yeah, I mean, and you asked me at an apposite time because I essentially spent all of last week in workshops with a huge kind of global consultancy. I better not say which one, but this is one everyone's heard of, absolutely massive global consultancy.

1:03:38And all they're doing right now essentially is talking to their clients about the meaning of AI and how they integrate AI into their workforce and all the rest of it. And it's just so difficult and so slow. There's so much skepticism. And look, I get it. And I've written about this. It is incredibly hard to integrate new AI tools into the workflow of hundreds of tens or hundreds of thousands of knowledge workers. And what that's going to mean is exactly as you both just said, we're going to see a wave of challenges of like disruptors to use 2010s like terminology that just reinvent this. and some really weird things are going to start to happen.

1:04:27And this is like the pathway to the singularity where massive corporations and massive banks or massive whoever are kind of shunted aside, at least in certain domains, by like five people and running a team of a million AI agents. The age of the dominance of these massive corporations is going to be challenged in really just weird, interesting ways. because they cannot be nimble in response to this hugely consequential wave of technology because there's 7 ,000 people, you know, in the kind of like regulatory department and the kind of human resources department. And by the time they've figured all that out and kind of everyone signed it off, it's just like some, you know - It's too late.

1:05:16Yeah, like a team of AI agents have just ripped through like whatever it is they were trying to figure out in the first place so that's going to be weird you know i mean we've been on that we've been on that trend for the last kind of 10 15 years like you know whatsapp like whatever famously sold for however many billion and there were like 10 of them right and now we're going to see the next the next step beyond that where you build a multi-billion dollar corporation and there's one of you and a million agents um we're going to see it i could imagine a world where private equity, I don't know if it's private equity that would do it, but essentially smart capital builds the guts of an organization with AI and then hostile takes over valuable brands and revenue streams and essentially just slips that in basically because probably they'll be undervalued, right?

1:06:07Yes, it's a very interesting thought. And then you're going to get really weird kind of patterns of layoffs and job disruptions and job evaporation at these places, some of these huge corporations. Final question. Thanks, Tom. Final question, William. Yeah, sorry about that earlier. But what I was going to just comment on just random is using AI is i am just blown away by you know learning a foreign language how efficient it is it's just a complete game changer and then also just like random things like using it to plant a garden the most efficient way and just just random things and also to using with my kids i have two daughters to uh basically three and five and using the the voice chat and just asking my oldest hey what do you want to you know write a story about or something like that and she'll say xyz and it's like that i talked to it in the voice chat and she's just blown away by it so being creative you know being safe with the technology and stuff like that but also like last thing just want to say thank you to you guys with all your information all the videos everything i think i joined the exponentialist maybe in january february coincidentally i just gotten home from a trip that grant came in and found out your connection which was pretty wild but uh i think i've gone back and listened or watched every single video read most of the reports i'm just gaining all the momentum with it but it just made it's like a hidden secret within real vision this uh you kind of you have to be kind of ready for the exponentialness and when you find it you're like okay this is something very very interesting i love it one of the things just william what you're saying is i think this applies it certainly applies to me and it applies to everybody here we still don't talk to our ai or use it enough in literally everything we do it will help us make a better decision yeah but when we feel like we're stuck but then we're probably using suboptimal thought patterns or idea constructs that we've got we just have to get better at asking everything yeah absolutely and i think you guys can listen to your voices or watching them whatever it is it just prompts a random idea but just literally using it for just anything you know it's like basically it's like the new google let's say like i you know i chat you did this or something like that but like for me any thought doesn't matter and it's just so neat to like i'm right now i'm listening to a book uh on george washington and like some random little bit it's like hey give me some more information about that whether i type it in or just voice chat but just like that whole efficiency it's just mind-blowing and then also So you can get it to then say, hey, listen, can you just put me together a file of the excerpts from this book that I want to be able to read?

1:09:02Absolutely. You know, it's just, it's like you don't have to forget anything ever again. Yeah. And I have, like, I always make a joke. I have lists about lists. So it's like AI is just perfect for me and the way my brain works and I'm just go, go, go. and now though that I get to just apply it with my kids and just thinking about because I'm so whether yeah like it or not I'm just so on board with like what you guys say about how the future is going to be the way it is in five to ten years and I mean right now like I think it was Greg earlier with his triplets and how he could probably apply that for his kids or maybe taking something I just said and puts use but even like going into the summer now and getting ready for kindergarten I'm just thinking, hey, I'm very hands-on with the kids, and they're learning and just being a parent and just having a prompt like this morning on the train.

1:09:50Like, hey, can I have a couple of lesson plans, learning Spanish for a five-year-old, basic stuff? And because it just organizes everything so well. And for cooking, oh, my gosh. Cooking is amazing. I use it all the time. All the time. And I love cooking, and it just takes a whole other level. Efficiency, everything, specifics. And it knows me now, so then it offers wine pairings and stuff. Absolutely. It's just brilliant. I love it. Yeah. Your videos, I was able to do more with the certain drinks, snacks, and just the specific pairings. Because sometimes it's so overwhelming when you try to do that.

1:10:24And obviously, when you've got young kids, it can be hard to take the time to do it. But it just helps out with that so much. Yeah, exactly. So thank you, then. Yeah, thank you, William. Listen, guys, great to see you all again. And I always look forward to these. is one of my favorite things that we do is because we get behind this little curtain, have these conversations about the most amazing things in the world. And as ever, just love all the input that you guys bring as well, because none of us have the answers. We're just trying to figure it all out. And we're all pretty smart people, but we multiply that.

1:10:56We've got a network of smartness and that's a really magical thing. So thank you everyone. And we'll see you very soon. So hopefully you found that fascinating. meeting you can see how the real vision community comes together we're doing a lot more of this on real vision particularly in the pro tiers where members come and ask and discuss and debate so it's a real community you're not just watching it passively you're actively involved in discussing discussing our futures and you know i would love as i said before if if this interests you and you think it's going to change your life and the lives of those around you come and join us at the exponentialist realvision.com forward slash the future and i think i'd love to see you on that screen talking to us and debating all of our futures anyway i'll see you next time if you like this episode i'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership start your journey today to unfuck your future just one click away have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try?

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In this sneak peek behind the paywall, Exponentialist co-creators Raoul Pal and David Mattin are sharing their most recent monthly Fireside Chat with our viewers. They discuss the latest news in emerging technologies and the trends driving societal change before taking questions from members on Zoom. You can learn more about how to join the Exponentialist here: https://realvision.com/thefuture

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