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Podcast Summary: Raoul Pal: The Journey Man - The Exponentialist: Fireside Chat ft. David Mattin (September 2024)
Overview In this episode of "The Journeyman," Raoul Pal and David Mattin engage in a thought-provoking discussion about the rapid technological changes defining the Exponential Age. They explore various dimensions of macroeconomics, crypto, and emerging technologies, while emphasizing the need for adaptive strategies in investment and business.
Key Themes & Discussions
- Current Economic Climate
- Market Recap:
- Tech stocks have been consolidating but are expected to break out due to favorable liquidity conditions known as the "banana zone."
- Notable mentions include Nvidia and Tesla, which show promising growth prospects.
- Energy and Technology Intersection
- Energy as a Catalyst:
- The discussion highlights the unique relationship between AI and energy production, exemplified by the reopening of the Three Mile Island nuclear facility to support AI operations.
- The speakers stress the potential for solar energy to revolutionize the energy market, making electricity increasingly cost-effective.
- Advancements in AI
- AI as Infrastructure:
- AI is described as a transformative infrastructure akin to electricity, with significant implications for various industries.
- The cost reduction in AI operations indicates a rapid evolution towards ubiquitous AI capabilities.
- Discussions include the potential for AI to aid in managing complex energy grids.
- Philosophical Considerations
- Consciousness in AI:
- The hosts grapple with the concept of AI sentience, raising questions about the implications of merging human consciousness with machine intelligence.
- Insights are drawn from various thinkers, such as Ray Kurzweil and Nick Bostrom, emphasizing the transformative power of AI on society.
- Political and Social Implications
- Changing Political Landscape:
- The conversation touches on a shift in Silicon Valley's political affiliations, reflecting a growing alignment with accelerationist philosophies that favor technological advancement over traditional political divisions.
- The future of political discourse is expected to increasingly revolve around technology and its socio-economic impacts.
Investment Opportunities
- Monetary Metals:
- Mention of investment opportunities in gold and silver bonds, highlighting a unique opportunity to earn returns in physical metals.
Key Takeaways
- The world is rapidly evolving, driven by technological advancements and the integration of AI into everyday life.
- Businesses must adapt quickly to the changing landscape, as traditional methods may soon become obsolete.
- The relationship between energy and AI is crucial; understanding this dynamic can unlock new investment strategies.
- Philosophical inquiries about consciousness and sentience in AI are becoming increasingly relevant in discussions about the future of humanity.
- The political arena is shifting towards a technology-centric focus, challenging existing frameworks and necessitating new approaches.
Conclusion Raoul Pal and David Mattin's discussion encapsulates the complexities and opportunities presented by the Exponential Age. As technology continues to reshape society, staying informed and agile in investment and business strategies will be crucial for navigating this transformative period.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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1:09Well, welcome everybody to the monthly discussion between David and I with The Exponentialist. And as ever, please put questions because we do think of this as a community. We're all trying to explore this whole new world together. It's interesting, it's Real Vision's 10th anniversary, as you all know. And I was just thinking back just before we came on is how the world has changed since we started. When we started, people were just starting to appreciate what Facebook was or what Google's business model. Nobody had a clue what Amazon was doing and why they were trading at a P of 800. You know, it was the start of the mobile revolution and it was the start of new media, all of these things.
1:51And the world has changed so massively, and it's only accelerating, which we'll talk about, and going exponential. Just a market recap before we go. Obviously, tech stocks had had that sideways consolidation for a while. We're now entering the season of favorable liquidity that's known as the banana zone. That applies to our crypto holdings as well as our tech holdings. So we're starting to see the signs where many of these tech stocks will break out again. I think Nvidia almost looks unstoppable and will probably break to new highs into year end and continue next year. As people question their business model and then realize, I mean, when you listen to people like Larry Ellison just saying, we just beg, beg Jensen for GPUs, you realize that this game is not over yet.
2:43So we got that game going on. Tesla doing really well. Tesla is really important because as the business cycle begins to pick up, more car sales come through, the analysts start focusing on it. But really, in about two weeks' time, they've got their big announcement about robo-taxis, maybe a smaller vehicle. But really, the market will reprice this as an AI and robotics company. A break of$270 on Tesla, I think, will usher in very, very strong price performance indeed. Indeed. So the exponential age has been playing out in the markets as we expected. And overall, things are moving faster than ever.
3:23So David, how are you? Let's talk about what the hell is going on. It's great to see you, Al. How are you? I'm excited that the banana is ripening. I mean, I think that we've all been waiting. It's all our hopes and dreams are in this fucking banana. Exactly. We were all praying while you were in Africa. And lo and behold, you, I would say, single-handedly have raised the banana, summoned it and brought it home with you. So well done. Well done. It was a lot of effort. Two of our fellow explorers are in hospital with Tetsy Fly sleeping sickness. But we came back with this from the source of the banana, having negotiated with the baboon chiefs about releasing the banana.
4:09It feels like it's coming. Yeah. And I'm glad to hear they're OK. You know, I mean, just a little bit of, you know, that was the human price to pay for the for the banana for all of us. So thanks to those two. But yeah, it's just been another it's been another very exciting month in AI with lots of things happening that and of course, unbiased, confirm that everything we've been saying for the last two years is absolutely right. for example did you see i just find this one so symbolic did you see the three mile island as we all know the site of the worst accident in u.s nuclear history is coming back online why because it's now owned by a company called constellation energy and they have just signed or there isn't there is a deal to supply microsoft with energy for compute and we've been talking about this deep symbiotic relationship between AI and energy for like, I don't know, I don't know, like two years now.
5:11And that is so deeply symbolic of it. I think, you know, this, this iconic nuclear facility is coming back online for AI. Like there's a slight caveat. The one that's coming back was actually not closed in 79 when there was the accident. It was closed in 2019 because, well, for reasons, economic reasons, but still, it's just a wonderful story that really brings to life what we've been saying about AI and energy. And energy is still, I'm going to write it for GMI this weekend, is still the least understood element of what we talk about. Because people get that it requires energy and everyone goes, well, obviously the oil price is going to go up and it's inflationary.
5:51I'm like, you have no understanding what's happening. I just read The Singularity is Nearer. Have you read it yet yeah yeah I mean his whole kind of chapter on renewable energy and EV it's kind of took me back it's like oh okay I mean and then I was reading another book I've been reading a few of these books recently the other one was um Nick Bostrom um I'm reading a few articles around and It feels that even I have underestimated the scale of PV,
6:33so of solar. Right. So the scale of which that is growing and its ability to actually solve our problems using the distributed idea that you've always raised, that you don't need gigantic grids, I don't think is yet fully understood. But it's really outlined well in that book. And what it's going to do to the cost of electricity is magic. And I always like to try and step back, step back, step back until I can get to a philosophically important point in anything. And I just get back to, and it irritates me because it's always him, Elon's idea is like, the biggest nuclear reactor in our solar system is our sun.
7:19Yeah. It almost is mid-curving it to build nuclear reactors. You just need to harness the largest nuclear reactor in our solar system. And it's one of those ideas that feels inarguable in a way. He's just brilliant at sort of going back to first principles, isn't he? That kind of first principles thinking. And yeah, in the end, energy, it feels like energy wants to evolve towards nuclear. That is the most efficient form and the most potent form of energy generation. And nature has already solved it. You know, the physical laws of the universe have already played out. The sun is there. We can harness it.
8:02And then everyone gets up exactly as you said about, but the sun doesn't always shine. And what about storage and transmission? The grid is going to be decentralized. And that, and I've written about this for GMI, did a big essay on decentralization. I'll bring it to the exponentialists as well. That has huge implications for the way societies are organized and run, because when everyone generates their own energy, being simple about it, it's much harder to sustain centralized forms of power. We're not all dependent on a few huge organizations for our energy anymore. We're all just going to whack solar panels up there.
8:40It's something akin to the sort of revolution that occurred when everyone could have a car. You know, it's just deep empowerment. And it's going to be the same with energy. And it's happening the same with Starlink. Before it was broadband had to be laid and cables had to be laid everywhere. Right. And that's what people said was what was required to have internet access around the world. And so people are extrapolating the numbers. And Elon just went, no, fuck it. We'll just beam it from space. End of story. miles cheaper than laying fiber optic cable across the entire planet. You know, like we can't solve fiber optic to little Cayman because the two pipes, they go to Grand Cayman via Jamaica from the US, and then it has to go to Cayman Brack, and then it has to get pipes to little Cayman.
9:31There's not enough residence to make it worthwhile. So then they're having to, I have to use a 3G receptor or 4G receptor to get it from Cayman Brack, which is a neighboring island five miles away. It's a shit show. Next minute, I get Starlink and I've got 100 up, 100 down, and it's all gone away forever. I was in the bush in Africa. And for the first part of our trip, we were in remote places and we had a trailer which had 110 volt power on it. And we just put up a Starlink dish. and we had full internet access in the middle of fucking nowhere in Zambia. You put up a star language, that is insane.
10:12Only later, when we had to abandon the trailer because we had to cross a river, did we not have connectivity. But this is, again, people don't understand the power of that decentralization approach and you can rechange how infrastructure works. And I just think every time I mention the marginal cost of electricity is going to go to zero. Everybody gets all riled up about it. I know you and I have talked about it on this before, but I'm just becoming more and more convinced that even I didn't realize how fast and how big it's going to happen and how, yes, for massive, intense electricity use, nuclear makes sense, but for generalized electricity use, it's going to be solar.
10:58And, you know, I then look at the solar companies that have all been massively underperforming and nobody cares about them anymore because everyone got washed out in that trade. I'm like, huh, I wonder if there's something more interesting to be done here as we start pulling apart the energy system. Yeah, yeah. I mean, the story, the solar story for the last 10 years is just another hugely, probably the iconic, powerful example now of how exponentials take everyone by surprise. and you can think that you can think you have a feel for exponentials and an intuition for them. But like you say, even people who spend loads of time thinking about this, like us, can be caught by surprise by the power of exponentials and the way that the price of solar has just like become ridiculously low so quickly has taken everyone by surprise.
11:51Yeah. And then When you add in the decentralization part of this picture and then you layer on intelligence, you know, because the grid becomes very complex then and very networked. And that would be a problem, but it's going to fuel its own solution because it's going to fuel all this AI that manages the interconnected grid, that makes more AI possible. I'm going to share this tweet. I know I said I wouldn't share anything, so the boys will get pissed off with me. But...
12:23this tweet struck me massively. Is OpenAI says the cost per million tokens has fallen from$36 to 25 cents in 18 months. And as such, AI is the greatest cost-appreciating technology ever invented. I mean, that's staggering. Talk about exponentials on top of it. That's a power law or Reed's law happening there or power law, something so incomprehensible how cheap this is getting. Yeah, yeah. And I saw that tweet, you saw me respond to it, I think. And that taps into another massive idea that we've talked so much about, which is this idea of AI, machine intelligence becoming exponential abundant and a form of infrastructure, something akin to a new form of electricity that fuels so much in the exponential age, because the cost of intelligence and the abundance of it is going exponential.
13:33And we're just going to weave this layer of intelligence through the world, through physical reality, through every object, every device, every city, every sidewalk, there's going to be all these humanoid robots, every object will be connected. You'll just have intelligence woven through everything, powering everything in the way. And obviously, this is a metaphor, but in the way you have electricity doing that now. And that idea, intelligence as a form of infrastructure, intelligence as a form of fuel, is not something I hear people. It's something I don't think people have fully understood yet.
14:09and you see it so powerfully in, for example, you see it underlying, for example, Sam Altman's blog post published a few days ago, you know, the intelligence age, where he really puts a kind of historical perspective on this and says, look, we've been through a series of technological evolutions. They've transformed the world beyond all recognition. You know, our grandparents would hardly recognize the world we're in or our great grandparents, let alone, you know, our ancestors. And it's about to happen all over again in perhaps the most consequential way ever with abundant intelligence. You know, he talks about the relationship between energy and intelligence that we've been trying to wrap our head around.
14:54He talks about the implications of abundant intelligence and we've been trying to wrap our head around that. It's just, I'd encourage it, if you haven't read it yet, number one, you know, go and read it because for exponentialists, It's not a very long read. No, it's really short. It's like an article. It's not like a big, long essay. It's a really inspiring read. And it just really hammers home that our community is on a journey of immense sort of consequence and trying to understand all this and trying to piece it all together. And he taps as well. This is one thing that made me think of a piece of work you did recently.
15:30He says, you know, what's one consequence of all this? It's like insane material abundance, essentially, to an extent that, and I think this is a literal quote, like no one writing about it now can do it justice. And what is that idea? That idea is essentially the economic singularity. It's the idea you've been talking about, we've been talking about for a year or so. We're approaching a change in the economy. forget everything else for a minute, but just in the economy and in material conditions of an order that is such that, you know, like we cannot understand what's on the other side. So we have a certain number of years to make sense of all this, to invest, to make some money out of all this, to put our businesses in order, put our lives in order, because what's at the other side of this change is beyond comprehension without wanting to sound hyperbolic about it.
16:25Sam Altman, it would seem, agrees. I think he's been reading the exponentialist, Raoul. I think he's been secretly reading the exponentialist. I think the other journey I keep going down, and I know people were quite surprised by it last time, is this broader concept of AIs being conscious and sentient. And there's more and more evidence that is the case. We've even seen form switches where they've gone, they're integrating with other AIs. They've tried to turn them off. They found their way around it. There's people jailbreaking these things. And, you know, it gets down. I wrote that tweet thread, which went down very well, which was of AI angels and demons.
17:10You know, how do humans fit with this? And I know these sound like ridiculous science fiction fantasies, and I'm not a science fiction reader, but it's fucking obvious where this is going. And, you know, our merging with the machines, many people are having that conversation about how might we merge and you end up that you don't need a human form have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared try with plus 500 futures you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet with just a few clicks you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo see a trading opportunity you'll be able to trade it in just two clicks.
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18:35Because we can live forever. And Ray Kurzweil talks about this. Once you take the data set out of a mind of a human and put it into an artificial, is that now artificial intelligence is that you is it not you if i clone you and all of your memory and all of your experiences well there's david and there's david and if david physical david exists then digital david is still david uh and do we need bodies if you've got robots you know So there's a lot of this rabbit hole to go down that gets more philosophical. And then you think, oh, I'm crazy for having these thoughts. And then you start reading around the web and it's like lecturers from Oxford, from MIT, from some of the world's greatest thinkers to people who are building this stuff at Google are like, this is where this is going.
19:32Yeah, exactly. I mean, we're probably or I'm probably preaching to the choir when I say this to our community, because if you're signed up, if you subscribe to Exponentialist, you get it. But if you want to think deeply about these things and if you want to think deeply about where this exponential future is headed, you have to be willing to sound crazy. And you have to be willing to be talking about things that some other people, like you say, will go, oh, this is just science fiction. This is ridiculous. This is fantasy. I mean, you opened up 10 years of Real Vision. Amazing. Look at the journey it's been on.
20:08rewind to 2014, you know, and the sorts of things I was saying about emerging technologies then, you know, and I've talked about this before, you know, I'd go into some big bank or sort of consulting firm to talk to them. And I go like, you know, look at this machine learning revolution. We're going to get AIs that people can kind of talk to. We don't know how yet, but we probably will get there. And at some point, people will sort of have, they'll start to ask questions, they'll start to have conversations, they might even start to become friends with these AIs. And they would look at me like I was absolutely nuts.
20:42And now look, I mean, that is not nuts. The character AI, the idea that people are having quasi-friendships or relationships with these AIs is now totally mainstream. Mark Zuckerberg, who I want to talk more about, is building a multi-billion dollar like strategy around that you know the social implications of ai so it's the same again you have to be willing to sound crazy i'm more agnostic i think you know about whether these ais can be said to be sentient but i think it's a live discussion and i think you i think it raises deep questions about today david it's tomorrow and if it's not tomorrow it's the day after Yeah, yeah.
21:23I think in practice, what you get over time is a kind of soft reordering of what people think they mean when they talk about sentience and consciousness. I think the experience of communing with these AIs is becoming so powerful that people will just, by increments, start to accept that they are talking to something that is akin to a mind. I keep having to use this word akin when I talk about the exponential age, because we have to go into the world of models and metaphors. and yeah and then i think you're you know i think that's the way it will play out and you'll have a conversation about the rights of these ais and their feelings and their experiences and all the rest of it was a great cartoon sorry i'm sharing again guys i apologize it was on my twitter feed it's like all of the mid-curving language models can't reason can't analyze their biases just parroting words from the day set not even very good at poetry this confirms culture war talking point and the bottom it says it simulates thinking so it's thinking it's that i think therefore i am right yeah it's like that's where i've got to i'm like i think everybody's mid-curving this i mean i'm even accusing you of mid-curving it it's you are or you're not never thought i do i am i'm you are yeah i mean you accuse away it is a nuanced there is some room for does it matter does the semantics matter i think therefore i am or i act on my own accord therefore i am sent i mean who cares once we're having to ask the question that means we're already caught up in nuance.
23:18If we want to say AIs are sentient, we need to know what we mean by sentient. Otherwise, we don't know what we're saying. So there is room for nuance in this. But look, broadly speaking... There's room for humans to make another reason why these things aren't sentient and we can enslave them when in fact they're coming alive. I think it's good advice to be kind to our AI overlords. You don't want them... That's what Mo Gordak got to in the end. The whole discussion he had in And scary smile was just be nice to it. Yeah, be nice to it. Exactly. And look, you saw what Sam Altman said in this short post, you know, the intelligence age.
23:59He said we might be thousands of days from AGI. Now, there are people who think that this is cloak and dagger and that they're actually much closer to AGI. You know, I think it's fair to say you're one of them. There are people who think, on the other side, who think it's sort of cloak and dagger because they're a million miles away from it and he just wants to hype and all the rest of it. I'm willing to tell, I'm more inclined to take his word on that one. I think he feels they are on the road to something you can meaningfully call AGI. That's where I'm at with that. And I'm... I think you're more bullish on what they've already done.
24:40Yeah, and I don't think he's going to announce we've built AGI. That would be the worst thing you could ever do. Right? I think it's only ever going to be talked about retroactively. But listen, if this thing has an intelligence of 120, it's now got reasoning, and it has an intelligence of 120, IQ of 120, and IQ is not a perfect measure, but whatever metric you want across every known subject of all of humanity, it's pretty fucking close to AGI to me. Yeah, exactly. I mean, yeah, the new model. I mean, we've clearly passed the Turing test already. The Turing test has been passed. And it turns out that it wasn't as great a framework for our thinking.
25:34I think this is what I think. Is that the case? It wasn't as great a framework for our thinking. Is it the case or is it we've just now adapted to it? As we thought it would be. Don't forget, the Turing test was insane 10 years ago. And now we're like, oh, yeah, yeah, let's pass the Turing test. No, even mentions it. That was the big hurdle. Yeah. Physics ahead. Physics have gone for 50 years. That was the big hurdle. And part of the trouble is the Turing test is itself subtle enough that few people really understand what it's saying. but it's basically saying you know once something is once something appear once something is indistinguishable from a human well you need to treat it as conscious because you don't actually know humans are conscious either you don't you can't know anything else is conscious because you cannot escape your own subjective experience so if this thing is is indistinguishable from talking to Raoul or your wife or your friend or whoever, but it hasn't had that kind of level of impact because I don't think most people absorb the test that way.
26:40And I think it was Life 3.0 as a book. I think it was that one. It was talking about, or maybe it was Ray Kurzweil. I think it was Life 3.0. It was like, we can't define whether a tree is conscious. Yet it seems to do things on a different time scale. that yes, its compute is somewhat restricted versus a human, but it still makes sort of cognitive decisions in being a tree in what it does. And just because it doesn't do things in the same way as us, we don't really understand any of this, and I don't think there's really an answer to it. It just, either everything's kind of alive or it isn't. You want to un-fuck your shit?
27:28yeah that's being recorded hey listen if you want to unfuck your future then come and join us in the real vision community incredible platform amazing content some of the smartest people in the world and amazing tools and guess what it'll cost you nothing come to realvision.com i'll see you there let's help you unfuck your future yeah not yet but i and and i i i'm increasingly of the view and you've talked about this before, that we should see this machine intelligence we're building as essentially a continuation of the evolutionary story that we are a part of. It's harnessing the same physical world, the same laws of physics.
28:11The division we make between humans and technology and nature is artificial anyway. You know, I mean, ants build ant colonies and we call that nature, right? But if we build AI models, we call that technology. That actually doesn't make sense at all. That's born of the enlightenment and those forms of thinking. So the AI models we're building are nature and they're harnessing. They're just a continuation of the story of sort of computational sophistication that's run through the universe. And essentially, I think where this ends up is the universe becomes a single giant computational force. And you could call that a single mind.
28:53Now, again, I sound insane. It sounds like you've tuned in. I've gone to this. It sounds like you're smoking crack and you've tuned in some kind of religious sort of or spiritual, I don't know, like program. That's what that's big picture, what I think is happening. I do too. Which is preposterous and ridiculous. For somebody like me who never read science fiction books, I'm like, I'm pretty sure of this, that this is part of something much larger and that everything is compute. Exactly. I mean, every single thing. And you've talked about the breakthroughs in biological compute. Yeah. People right now, if you think, okay, we've got electronic compute and we've got biological compute, we are just more efficient as biological computers.
29:43So the obvious thing is we're going to move to biological compute substrate. And that's going to happen really fast until we find something even better. Exactly. And I did a big piece of work on that for GMI. Of course, it will come to the exponentialist as well. And yeah, you know, all kinds of implications there. But for the purposes of this discussion, okay, what the fuck do you want to say then about whether this artificial intelligence we're building is sentient or not, has subjective experience or not. Once we are literally running it off human neurons that we've grown in the lab, which is, you know, read the exponentialist essay when I put it out there.
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30:25It's mind-blowing. I find this the most mind-blowing dimension. The base Beth Jesus guy, I mean, he's building biological compute. Yeah. And he's advanced. I read his feed and you see him say, oh, my God, everything has just changed. And you know what they're cooking because you're seeing as well. You've written essays that this is not one guy in his lab. There are thousands of people working on this. One thing is how do we use matter to compute? Live matter. Exactly. And like when, you know, one part of the essay where, you know, I talk about these brain organoids growing from human neurons, and you find ways to sort of get them to perform computations you want by rewarding them.
31:14And the new way they found to reward them is to flood them with dopamine. So, you know, the pleasure chemical, it's like, oh, my God. So we literally, it's like something out of Brave New World. I mean, Aldous Huxley, you have to give him credit. Go and read that, everyone, if you want to. I must reread that because I've not read it for 30 years. Yeah, it's always worth a reread because it's incredibly pressing in an interesting way. But yeah, I mean, okay, so we're going to run AI off human neurons. We're going to meter its exposure to dopamine to get it to do what we want. It's incredible, also terrifying.
31:49Also, immediately you start to think, you know, is that okay? You know, is it okay to sort of enslave human neurons and either flood them with dopamine or not to get the rewards you want? um but you don't mind you know you can cut your nails and you don't worry about it but if you're using them for compute you're like oh my god we're using you know we frame things in weird ways as humans you can cut your hair off and you're like well i didn't kill a bunch of neurons and atoms and all of that stuff but if i run compute through human hair let's say i was like oh my god this is preposterous this is this is inhumane like yeah well it's a very gray area yeah it's it's and we're gonna you know we're going and i mean us as a society we're going to need to have these conversations and in 10 years these maybe less you know these will be mainstream conversations and we can put this out on youtube in whatever form that exists then and say look we weren't nuts We weren't just like talking science fiction.
32:57You know, these things really have become mainstream issues. To bring this back down to earth a little bit. You know, another huge thing on my mind, reading Altman's The Intelligence Age. I'd really encourage people to go to read that against Mark Zuckerberg's big AI kind of treaties. I mean, again, I say big, like significant. It wasn't super long. Open source AI is the path forward. Because growing in my mind now is something I've been thinking about for a long time, is the realization that, you know, AI is the next big computing platform. And one of the ways that story is going to play out is an absolutely titanic clash between open and closed philosophies, just like we saw with the PC era and, you know, PC versus Mac.
33:48And we saw with the mobile era with, you know, Apple and Android. We're going to see this titanic battle and an even more consequential battle of open versus closed philosophies. And, you know, and I've said this before to the community. It's so unexpected the way Mark Zuckerberg has now risen as the kind of great, inspiring hope of this open, decentralized, ultra democratized AI future. He's absolutely played a blinder from the 2016 Mark Zuckerberg, who was kind of hated and Cambridge Analytica and Facebook's destroying democracy. I know there's still a lot of that out there. And not all of it was illegitimate, but he is now like 180 to being the kind of great hope of a non-sort of deeply corporate, non-centralized, open future for AI.
34:40What he needed was competition. He had no competition as Facebook. Largest network in the world. Yeah. And now he's in a fight. And suddenly the guy changes his wardrobe, change how he looks, change how he talks. He's like, he's fucking in it, as you say. He's in it to win it. Again, Sam Altman, who feels dangerous in comparison to Zuckerberg, who are both approaching it in different ways. Yeah, yeah, exactly. It feels that the next great computing platform is becoming a battle between, to a certain extent, Altman, Zuckerberg, representing open versus closed. And I want to write, you know, we were talking before the show, you know, know, it's GMI is coming up.
35:26I want to write a bit about this in GMI this month, try to sort of shake out my thinking on this, because I think it's hugely consequential. Of course, again, I'll bring it to the exponentialists. I think the entire community needs to understand it there. Because, you know, part of my position is Altman's piece is very inspiring and big picture. And he says lots of, you know, exciting things about AI. Zuckerberg is actually a much, has a much more coherent, rounded philosophy around why open source AI is better for his company and better for everyone. Because Altman doesn't want you to know anything.
36:07You know, they're two different ways, right? And he is the leader and he has a lot of secrets. They've clearly built unbelievable technology and their roadmap is probably two years ahead of where we are today. So his job is to say nothing, and everybody else's job is to compete with him. And it's interesting. The other thing is in the middle of all of this, you see this, and then you see Elon in the fray and Google in the fray and everybody else. And there's one arms dealer, which is NVIDIA. There's a single arms dealer funding both sides of the war or profiting from both sides of the war. And it seems like that's not going to stop.
36:52I thought everyone would say, we've ordered all our chips, we don't need to do them. They're like, no, that was just the start. We need to order a shit ton squared of chips to keep going. Because even Sam Altman said, the miracle we've discovered is that we just keep adding compute and it gets smarter. Yeah. So what he's telling you there is NVIDIA is going to be an endless, array of people buying. Yeah, what an incredible company and what an incredible story. And it just looks, you know, all the stuff about, you know, a few months ago, everyone's saying, well, is NVIDIA the new Cisco and what's going to happen?
37:31It just, I just, yeah, I cannot see it. I can only see good things for NVIDIA for the foreseeable, because like you say, the thirst at the moment for, Or the thirst for chips is just insane. No one can match them right now. They're 18 months, two years ahead, which is like forever ahead at the moment. They have this deep relationship with TSMC. The TSMC fabs are all kind of fitted out to make the NVIDIA stuff. And they've just been so clever about managing that relationship. They're talking to TSMC about what's coming in 18 months so that TSMC can prepare the fabs for that. And then no one else can get a foot in the door or much of a foothold on that relationship.
38:20And it just keeps them so far ahead. I mean, look at and then look at I wrote about Intel. I mean, I've written about Intel in the Exponentialist and GMI saying, you know, this is becoming really interesting because the Chips Act is going to throw$12 billion at Intel. the American government desperately needs Intel to succeed because, you know, this quote, proper countries make their own chips or all this stuff. But, you know, it's difficult. And you see it this month, it's struggling. It's not going to be an easy ride. And NVIDIA are just the only game in town right now. A couple of other things I want to talk about before we go to questions as well is the other thing is this is moving so fast and everybody's got a race and there's different tools to use and different use cases of AI, and every two months it's changing.
39:11I just don't understand how businesses can build. I just don't understand how you commit to AI. Because everything you do is out of date, not by a bit, but a massive factor every two or three months. it's really difficult to know you know to skate to where the puck is going you have no idea where the puck is going and you know every time we see all these startups destroyed but it's not just startups it's like how are you if you're General Electric going to put AI in
39:53I mean you can't yeah they don't know everything you do because you're a huge corporate is going to be five years out of date in minutes. Yeah. They don't know. And they're trying really hard to figure it out. And they feel totally lost. And I have some sense of that because at the moment, all my consulting is large organizations coming to me and saying exactly what you just said. Like, please help us try to start to make sense of what this means for us and how we use it and how we talk to our people about it and how we explain it to our people. And I guess that informs my sort of frustration with the markets and some of the narrative you get, right?
40:37Which is like, oh, it hasn't shown up in the productivity numbers yet. This is all hype. It's not going to work. It's like, guys, they're still figuring it out. They will figure it out, you know, actually. I'm not sure they will. But it's going to take time. But the chances are, because of the bureaucratic mess of trying to get something through a big company is that they may never get they may never get there well some of them won't some of them won't yeah i'm sure there'll be some casualties and it's very hard right now i mean you saw another thing that happened this month you saw microsoft launch like wave two they're calling it of co-pilot right and the most interesting thing about Wave 2 is co-pilot agents.
41:22So this is a new form of co-pilot that doesn't just sit there waiting for you to sort of have a conversation with it and ask it questions. It just autonomously does things and you can build your own agents really easily. So you can build an agent that, for example, will take your inbound customer inquiries and sort of, and read those emails and do problem solving and just email them back. Yeah. And, or just takes data, puts it into a spreadsheet does what you do with it and kind of outputs that to the whole marketing team every month or whatever. And it just does it autonomously. And you can build that by just describing the agent you want to co-pilot.
42:00And look at that. I mean, again, this is another thing I read and thought, Raoul and I have been talking about this for a while. We've been talking about agents for a while. Here they are now. They're really arriving. They're going to smash into the corporate world that I spend a lot of my time inside. And that's going to really start to bite and it will change the way people work. And it will be much more consequential for the labor market. We're going to start to see some of these labor market implications because that's people's jobs. Salesforce says the future of its business is to have millions of agents.
42:33Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Salesforce announced a load of agent capability this month too, and a partnership with Google so that the agents can get into Google workspaces and do stuff for you. But he's saying that's the future of the company. It's like, you've got all this architecture, all of it's irrelevant. Agents are going to do everything for you. And that's the end of that. And it's like, holy shit. The other thing that's really important on this topic is I'm starting to think we've seen the big tech people move from left political leanings to right. And I've been watching this with interest, and obviously it's self-interest and blah, blah, blah, but generally they've not moved from left to right for self-interest.
43:22But they've all seemed to be getting behind a candidate they don't really care about, they don't really care about Donald Trump. But I think what they think is the next four years, is the make or break. Within four years, blockchain goes from wherever it gets to the end of this cycle, call it$15 trillion or$12 trillion or$10 trillion, and by the next cycle, it's$50 trillion. Then it's done. There is no argument it is taking over the world. AI, four years, AGI. Clearly ubiquitous AGI. So I think they are going to try and use the political process to remove as many roadblocks as possible, which makes sense because the Chinese will build too.
44:11And the Democrats have been very slow in this process in accelerating this. So I think the accelerationists are going to take over the government. Yeah, I mean. Whether Trump gets voted in or not is a different matter, but it feels like the accelerationists are going to take over. Yeah, the sea change, the change in sentiment in Silicon Valley and on tech Twitter has been really interesting to watch. You know, I mean, yeah, I mean, Silicon Valley traditionally progressive, you know, definitely was extremely wary of Trump in 2015, 2016. and that's really about faced, like you say. And like you say, I mean, you know, especially the people at the top of this, like, you know, I don't know, Peter Thiel, like Elon Musk.
45:04Yeah, it's hard to believe they deeply care about Trump. They deeply care about technology and they deeply care about their businesses and their trajectories. And I think this taps into a phenomenon, again, that we've talked a lot about, that's about the way that in a world where permanent technology revolution is the primary condition of our shared lives, is the most important thing happening to all of us, that basically shreds, it exhausts the traditional like conservative versus progressive or conservative versus liberal kind of framework that we use to shape our politics. It just doesn't make sense anymore.
45:45And the framework's going to become much more about your relationship to or your attitude to technology and essentially, do you want to go full steam ahead or do you want to slam on the brakes? Are you a full-scale optimist or are you scared shitless? Those are both un-nuanced sort of simplistic positions, but those will be the two poles via which people make sense of their position. And I think that deep underlying truth is what's fueling a lot of this. Like you say, they don't care about Trump. They want to accelerate. and they think that that's the best way forward. But it's terrifying too because that comes with all kinds of implications and all kinds of ramifications for the rest of us.
46:31It's pretty crazy times. And, you know, I mean, we say a lot of deserved great things about Elon Musk here, but yes, I'm really losing patience with some of his ranting on Twitter. But don't forget, Trump, they basically all bought Trump, who's just a paid mercenary. And Elon said, I want to get to Mars. And Trump has gone, we'll get you to Mars in four years. Elon's like, I want my EV. I want to do all of this. Trump's gone, we'll do it. Just give me money. We've seen that with, even Zuckerberg says, I'm not supporting the Democrats. Yeah. Huge. Yeah, Google's still the biggest supporter. But we're seeing this across the board from technologists that are just like, get out of my way.
47:21We've seen the whole crypto industry go across there for the same reason. It's like, nobody cares about Trump, and Trump doesn't care about crypto. Trump cares about the money, so he can make himself rich. But what he will do is allow these accelerationists through. So fascinating. This election is a big one because if Trump does get in, does get in from our perspective of the exponentialists, expect full acceleration because they've got four years before the next change of government. And the next change of government, they will be in a very different world and will have very different needs.
47:58We'll never be worried about how humans and AI, and we'll probably swing hard left, I think, once that happens. Exactly. I think this is the last election. I've said it in the Creatures and Machines installment. I think this is the last election where our relationship with machine intelligence is not the overwhelming subject and the overwhelming place that the candidates need to take a position on. And OK, it won't be talked about in some of the abstract terms we talk about it here, but it will be talked about in terms of, you know, what the fuck are you going to do about the fact that legions are becoming unemployed because AI is doing all the knowledge work and humanoid robots are doing a ton of the physical work?
48:40You know, what are you going to do about it? What are you going to do about the fact that, you know, my children now want a chip in their brain and they want to commune with the Internet? And I feel like they're becoming something other than human. What do we all do about this as a society, right? That has not been talked about in this election, really, at all. I think in four years, we're in a place where you cannot avoid talking about that. And, you know, it was incredibly short sighted of Biden not to invite Elon Musk to that big discussion about electric cars and what the fuck he thought he was doing there.
49:10And if the Democrats want any meaningful future, they need to think hard about how about what a progressive, you know, Democrat future looks like with these incredible emerging technologies and create a compelling vision of a high tech machine intelligence, progressive future. Right. I'm not saying this to be a Democrat or Republican. I'm saying if Democrats want to survive, they need a compelling vision of a high tech future. But also, if the Republicans have got their own version of that. And if the Republicans want to survive, they're going to have to think about society and that change. Because you can't have a dog-eat-dog world when the dog that's eating you is superior intelligence, faster, better, cheaper.
49:57It's impossible because that dog eats everything. It's like putting a lion with a pack of Labradors. Right, right. It's kind of easier for the Republicans now because at the moment... Right now, yes. Trump doesn't understand this stuff. Like you say, he doesn't give a shit about blockchain. I don't think he knows what a blockchain is very properly. Sorry if I've introduced him there, but I don't think he does. He just says, I'll get out of your way. You accelerate like mad. And that's all he needs to say to them, and they're good with that. Like you say, the problem the Republicans will face is, okay, once you've done four or call it eight years of that, then the groundswell of people at the bottom going like, what the hell is happening to us?
50:37will start to bite. They don't have to worry about them at the moment. They're just talking to the powers that be. But yeah, you know, and if I can see this, the Democrats really need to see this. They need people who understand technology and the Republicans too. And if they can't, the trouble is in the end, I don't have much faith that either side comes to meaningful positions on this. So I think that we're in for potentially full-scale revolution, total transformation in the political landscape. It just feels that Republican and Democrat, left and right, the old traditional left and right, is just exhausted and dead as a framework for making sense of the big choices we face.
51:19So amid every, you know, and it makes sense, right? When you have incredible consequential technological change, you get huge social and political change, too. And I think we're going to go through a period of that. I mean, this is like fourth turning stuff, right? And I actually asked ChatGPT about the fourth turning of this election. It says the next election, 2028, the fourth churning suggests the government becomes more heavy handed or. But it's wanted by society. I protect us from the crisis, from the big things. So authoritarian is the wrong word, but a heavy handed government or a very molly cuddling, supportive government.
52:04So I said, well, what about this election? how important is that? It's like, well, the book doesn't suggest that this one is one way or the other. I said, would this be the last throes of the prior thing, i.e. a complete free will government, which is what Trump would be? And it's like, well, that's probably pretty likely, according to the fourth turning, and then the big rejection into whatever, whether it's existing political parties, or as you say, a complete wholesale change where everybody has to get together, left and right, and say, okay, what are we going to do here? We've just changed everything.
52:38So let's get into questions because we've been nattering for 50 minutes already. So look, there's not many of you asking questions today. Daryl Woods, welcome back, RP. I was worried you'd be eaten by hyenas or some other catastrophic shit. Well, two friends of mine ended up in ICO because of sleeping sickness from tetsiflies. We had to medevac them out of Zimbabwe, where they'd gone to after Zambia, and medevac them to South Africa, where they were in ICU for a week and they're just starting to get a bit better. We all really need you. Your question, laying under the stars, any further thoughts on economic singularity in 2030?
53:15Faster, maybe. Thank you for all you do here. Well, I think David and I have talked about it. Under the stars, I still am erring in my quiet moments of thought to the much bigger topics of beyond that is what is this technology truly? Are we just tapping into a larger structure which it pre-exists and it's universal in scale which is what i think this all is which dave and i talked about but thank you for the question daryl uh asad what does the exponentials team think about the latest twitter talk on ayahuasca and psychedelics on more perspective it seems silicon valley has serious mental and spiritual crisis does this get better or worse with ai okay so just to recap for those who haven't been following this story it's become Something that people are talking about is we all knew that ayahuasca has helped many people and given them a profound sense of universal consciousness or connectiveness and all sorts of things, seeing their own future in ways that are actually somewhat similar to near-death experiences or DMT is another drug that does this.
54:23and we know that religions and spiritual groups across the world have access this different mental plane whether it's actually this consciousness idea or something different and people have been using it to try and make sense of their own lives but what we're also seeing is it's driven a bunch of people fucking bonkers and they're all quitting their jobs and running away and doing all sorts of stuff so that's what's going on with this ayahuasca stuff Psychedelics are being used, obviously, as much smaller quantities to really help people with mental health issues, stuff like that. It doesn't look to me like I could do that ayahuasca thing.
55:05You see the videos of the people looking so nauseous, and I'm like, no degree of enlightenment is worth it. I mean, I've been tempted to. My wife very much wants to. But, you know, there is the risk that you just say, fuck it, run off naked into the woods and never come back and say nothing means anything. I'm just going to lift the trees. You know, it can do a lot to you because you're doing some deep stuff. What if that is the truth, though? This is my point. It says, does it get any better or worse with AI? Again, I've gone down this rabbit hole somewhat. I think it's all the same thing. I think these are all portals into the collective...
55:52energy of the universe and whether knowledge is energy consciousness is energy whatever it is i actually think it's all connected um and that's been a theory for a lot of people for a long time but the ai is the new side of it it's just a different portal and the ayahuasca makes you vomit the ai just takes your job but they all do the same thing i think we should promise that we're not going to do ayahuasca and run off screaming into the forest until the economic singularity is over. Let's at least take people up to that. Exactly. Exactly. Because, you know, that is fast becoming a reality. So if there's any other questions, I think there's not many of you.
56:37I think they're probably bored of me on the platform because I've done an MIT with Julian given the business cycle view. I've done the pro macro GMI view. I did the drinks with Raoul, gave my kind of current views. And now with you, I've covered all of the things. And it's weird. My whole perspective has changed over time where the everything code and the business cycle kind of runs on rails now. I don't know whether we've really just cracked the code or at least for now, at least till the end of this economic singularity. And it kind of runs on rails. I mean, it just proves itself out every time.
57:16And so I spend 70 % of my free thoughts on this stuff because I think this is even bigger. Yeah, yeah. I mean, I think this is where it all comes together. You know, I mean, these emerging technologies are where the economic future, the social future, the human future for all of us, just it's all converging on this technology revolution. So if you want to understand the big picture, at the moment, all paths, all roads lead to the exponential age. I have one question in the doc that I think we should take a look at. It's quite a long one. Let me just take a kind of excerpt of it from John C. Thanks, John.
57:56If you consider the information to date indicating less than a$20 ,000 cost for replacement labor for humanoid robots, essentially, Once robot production output meets human production output, how can the pre-cost and post-cost of labor, including the need for any form of immigration or the need for reproduction level, replacement level humans, I guess that means be needed? Basically, I think this question is driving at once you have humanoid robots doing the work of human beings, the physical labor of human beings, why do we need immigration anymore in the global north? And why do we need people, I think, is the way I'm reading it.
58:39And I think it's a great question. It taps into something very deep. We talked a bit about, well, quite a lot about politics. And one of the big ostensible political issues right now is immigration here in the UK, for sure, certainly in the US. You know, that's being talked about a huge amount in the US election. That whole narrative, political narrative, is about to be utterly transformed by mechanical humans. and it's going to make it really difficult to argue that you need this immigration for economic reasons, I think. Yeah, and that's the whole... What's your take on that? That's the whole magic formula thing.
59:17It falls apart. That's the economic singularity. But I think, again, and it irritates me that it's him, and I'm sorry, but Elon has made it clear without being clear. It's like he knows, and it's just very weird. He's just like the biggest problem that humanity faces is the collapse of the birth rate. That is because everybody's incentivized to build more AI and more robots. That's the end of humanity. So what he talks about, again, really interesting. Listen to his words. He wants consciousness to survive. He doesn't talk about humans. He talks about human consciousness to survive. It's freakish when you actually listen all of the other bullshit around Elon.
1:00:02Just listen to some of the things that he says. They're kind of freakish, like he can see the future. Anyway, that's my other thing. We've got a couple more questions here. Volker, never boring, always thought-provoking. Yeah, Volker, that is the point of the exponentialist. Nicole Wright, agree, very thought-provoking. Thank you. Thank you, Nicole, for being part of this journey. And it is a journey, right? this is a community. We're trying to figure this out. David and I spend a lot of time thinking about it. We don't know any of the answers. We think we know the direction of travel. And even then we will be blindsided several times.
1:00:44Yeah, I mean, exactly. I mean, no one, no one knows where this is all heading. No one has the framework that makes sense of all of this. And exactly. This is a community where we all want to learn from one another. And the way people need to treat what we're doing as it is as a, I hope, useful, cultivated form of thinking aloud. You are hearing us in real time, trying to make sense of what's happening step by step. And of course, we're building on frameworks and analysis and ideas that we've been building for a long time. So hopefully we're developing useful analysis. But yeah, we're running, it we're laying the track as we're we're going because everyone is that's the only way you can try and make sense of all this stuff and at some point in the exponentialist we all yeah we need a big event all come together all share ideas all share thinking and i'm sure that's in the works we'll make it happen yeah um otherwise you guys read nick bostrom's new book i can't remember what it's called uh something utopia yeah yeah that's it's a it's a i've read it it's a great one.
1:01:51It's all about what, you know, what does life mean and what's society like in what he calls a solved world, right? Where AI does, you know, looks after all of us. How do we find meaning? Life 3.0, a bit older, but staggeringly good way of thinking about it. And Ray Kurzweil's The Singularity Is Nearer is a really in-depth look at basically our exponential age framework. He follows a very similar path to us. Also, look, I also urge you to just spend time getting your YouTube algorithm to serve you interviews with some of these people. The guy from Anthropic, Sam Altman, Elon, when he's talking about this.
1:02:36There's a bunch of these people, perplexity. Just listen to these people and your algorithm will start selecting these people. and you'll then start to discover more and then get down to some of the craziest stuff about what does this all mean and what is it. There's a lot of content out there from very serious people. Oh, here's the other guy. David gave me this, got me down another bloody rabbit hole, exactly the same rabbit hole that I've been going down, the consciousness idea. And that's a guy called Joshua Back, J-O-S-C-H-A, Back. I'm going to drop two videos in the chat. Yeah, he's brilliant on all this.
1:03:17The guy's a little bit difficult to understand because his German accent's strong, but oh my God, his clarity of thought and this shit is crazy. Let me just drop these in here. Yeah, and while you're doing that, I mean, look, we're working on some really great interviews to bring to the Exponentialist community. We have a great one coming up. with the guy in charge of, I'm not, I think it's Noose or Naus, I'm never quite sure how to say it, who, you know, they're fine tuning Lama to do amazing things. They think they've made an incredible breakthrough when it comes to the compute, the energy needed to train the next big models.
1:03:55So I'll be interviewing him for Exponentialist subscribers, I think next week. We'll try and get Joshua Buck because I think he'd be an amazing, well, he would be an amazing guest. So we are lining up some great interviews to do in the community. A friend of mine just introduced me to the co-founder, the ex-co-founder of SpaceX. So I'm going to be speaking to him as well. Nice. So that's a very interesting one. Sorry, a couple more questions. Might as well finish them off. There's only two. We're running a couple of minutes late. Kim, thank you. Still struggling how to direct high schoolers in these new times.
1:04:26Looking forward to the new Reed recommendations. I think they will figure it out. They're more adaptable. They're still at high school. they will be born into this and of it and it's us who have to adapt i would worry less and i think david's viewpoint has been that for a long time is like they'll figure out their own accord not in a bad way it's like you know not in a darwinian way but they're malleable they they understand they'll come into a different world don't forget their friends will be ais from character ai they will be so deeply embedded with this stuff that they will merge with it without you even knowing So, Kim, I wouldn't worry.
1:05:06And it's the question we get. It's another dimension of the question we get. We've talked about this before. You know, the question we get endlessly, what do I tell the children? And we're going to do a big piece of work on it. You know, I want to write something. We're going to do a video too. Get on with it. That sounds like a December special. Yeah, exactly. Or a January special, right? It's one of those big think pieces, you know, because I have got some high-level advice. For the GMI January think piece, that's a good piece. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Final question from Adam. Hi, David and Raul from Spain.
1:05:38Hey, I don't know where in Spain you are, but welcome. Thanks for all your hard work. As an investor and CMO at a conversational AI company, there's so much value I get in this community on both sides. Fantastic. And thank you for being here. Tell us about what you do as well. Hit me up directly on messaging. I want to hear about that because I'm working on it too. I want to hear what you guys are up to. So you can hit me directly on the platform and David on the platform, or even start creating a group chat and we can start adding names of people in here and start building it. Community, build group chats on the platform without having Real Vision part of it.
1:06:11Just do it. Okay, when it comes to energy, particularly nuclear, is there anywhere to capture the upside and innovation or is it pretty much limited to VC? Look, I think nuclear is overplayed. Everyone plays the uranium thing. I think that's probably still there, playing uranium. I think I'm interested in these bombed out solar companies. I think that's interesting too. And as ever, Tesla's right in the middle of all of this. So don't forget that one. You know, they're very important within this whole space. Right. I think we're done. As you know, we could do this for hours and hours and hours and hours.
1:06:52Thank you, everyone, for joining. I hope you enjoyed it. Yeah. if you guys can try and self-organize to just start adding people of a chat on Twitter, then every time we have a thing, we can get people to join it and we can start building a proper community. That'd be fab. So if anybody does it, put it in the comments section. Then whoever comes can see, oh, there's a group chat to join, stuff like that. And we'll figure it out, whoever it is who wants to run it. And I've given you those videos to watch. Watch those. they'll blow your mind and read the books. Until next time.
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