The Future of Work: Raoul Pal on AI, Crypto, & the Great Resignation

0:28Make large crypto trades with Kraken OTC. customers through payward interactive inc for more information go to realvision.com backslash crackin otc hey everyone look sorry this is the cheesy interruption that you get on youtube channels but they're really important i'd really appreciate it if you just hit the subscribe button you see it makes a difference to know how i'm doing seeing the growth in subscribers if we're getting the right content obviously comments help as well but the hitting the subscribe button allows me also to book the best guests it really does make a difference so if you do enjoy this content and I know you do because you keep coming back to watch it just please hit the subscribe button sorry again for the cheese but it is important I appreciate it so much take care if we just start with because there are lots of people who are in marketing some people in tech some more on the investor side we just start with who the hell is Raoul just give me a two minute summary of who you are so my name's Raoul Pal I'm the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision which is a financial knowledge platform that's been going since 2014.

1:31My background has really been in financial markets since for the last 32 years, I've been in financial markets and have mainly been an investor on the macro side. That means trading all sorts of things from currencies to commodity markets, to stock markets, to pretty much anything. And in my journey, I've also become I'm very involved in the crypto markets as well. My journey into technology has really been in more recent years where I've suddenly started to realize that technology, many technologies all coming together and intertwining at the same time. I call that the exponential age. And that can be AI, robotics, EV, genetic, biology, nuclear energy, space travel, all this stuff is all coming together.

2:20And I think it's one of the most exciting times to be alive. So I spend a lot of time thinking about that. I'd like to start with why people should listen at the current time about AI. Why now? So, look, you hear this a lot, but you need to understand that this is the largest, fastest pace of technological innovation of all time. The invention of AI is so profound that it's maybe as large or maybe even larger than the splitting of the atom, which created almost infinite energy. this creates infinite knowledge and we've only started it's really only two years old in the format that we know it so what you've created is a world where we used to charge to have knowledge because it's scarce a lawyer an accountant a doctor whoever it is marketing consultant whatever it is you're paying for knowledge but now knowledge is infinite because what this really is is a tool to tap into all of human knowledge that's been recorded digitally.

3:22And then not just like a search engine, which people think of it of. It's not. It kind of understands how you think. It sees how all these humans think and interact. And it looks for patterns and the ability to make sense of all of the world. And so, again, that sounds really, really big. But what it means is we're in a golden period where if you adopt this technology quickly, you will have superpowers. You're not too late. What would your message be to people thinking, oh, there's already too many tools. Why would I even bother to get started? So if you go back six months, the AI world has already changed dramatically since then.

4:01Now you can create videos from writing text. That is the start of the end of the TV and film industry. it can it can analyze all data graphics that's kind of the end of the financial industry it's the explosion of discovering scientific breakthroughs because it can this whole information and look for patterns you know don't forget once you put ai into a robot you get a self-driving car so that's the end of taxis lorry drivers that's the end of deliveries couriers when you think about no podcast no podcast which might as well stop no podcast because see what you're doing now is you're doing a one-to-many experience yeah so people come to know us podcasts they see you talking and there may be several thousand people watching it soon and i'm developing one shortly that should be out in a month at least as a beta test it's a one-to-one podcast experience so you can talk to me directly so as opposed to having this conversation you could speak to my podcast my my ar get out of there ral yeah and so right the the amount of profoundness i mean so if you're talking if there's marketing people watching this don't it is not a search engine it is your expert friend you can go and ask it hey listen i'm trying to do a campaign for xyz brand this is how they position themselves this is what their brand looks like this is what it feels like and i want to produce some adverts some copy some other stuff and a strategic marketing plan it'll do it in five seconds and i think talking to a lot of people especially copywriters people work in marketing they're almost they're worried about using it because they think if i use it then the ai is replacing me if i'm a copywriter i use ai all my boss is going to fire me so for those people how can they use it more as a springboard rather than copy and paste think of it as supercharging yourself and turning yourself into superhuman if you can write five marketing campaigns in a month you can do five in a day yeah now the problem is is pricing will come down for your skill set but the only way of staying above it is by adopting the technology.

6:27Because if you don't, you will definitely lose your job. However, if you're an early adopter, the probability of you winning more business, doing more is so much higher. So I would just urge people to use it as fast as possible. One thing that I find breaks the barrier that helps a lot with understanding the power of this thing is stop typing into it because you end up asking Google-like questions. talk to it use the voice notes voice notes no it's not even voice notes no i speak to it directly oh it's okay directly on the app yeah i'm directly on the app yeah i'm like hey listen i'm trying to think through this can you help me with that you know i use it for you know i'm having a fight with my wife or i've got a personnel issue or it's like i'm trying to think at travel plans because i'm going to san sebastian in play in pain i just talk to it it's your friend that knows everything yeah it's your friend who's a polymath who can answer any question on science philosophy marketing medicine anything and seeing google you get a bunch of different searches and you have to figure it out this gets rid of all of that you are speaking directly to the expert and once you learn how to prompt it better you can say hey listen assume you're an expert on medicine and i'm an expert on medicine and i need your opinion on this and it becomes much more powerful because it has different layers to it how do you start to elevate your prompts to get more out of it because i think you can start using it right away and it feels oh this isn't very different to google so how do you get the most out of it firstly contextualize everything why are you asking the question what are you trying to get out of it that's an easy superpower now i'm no expert in prompting but that really helps i'm ral pal you know my work from the global macro investor you know how i write i'm trying to write an article on this i did it this weekend i was writing an article about a space company called rocket labs and it's like it's a pain to do all the research and write it and i asked gpt i'm so i'm like write it in my voice this is the kind of audience this is what i'm trying to do and then it does it and then i look at it and say hey listen don't give it to me lists because chat gpt tends to create lists for everything i said can you turn those lists into longer form because i want to publish it as an article it does that and i'm like hey listen i need a better intro as well to give a bit more oomph so people understand it then adds it literally something that would have taken me half a day to write was 10 minutes the way to get rid of that prompting issue is learn to talk to it okay just learn to talk directly to it yeah say hey you know I'm thinking about this, this and this, or I'm worried about that, or I'm trying to think through this problem at work, and it'll talk back to you.

9:20Now that latency, there's a slight latency right now. While the next ChatGPT version is out, that latency's gone entirely. So it's like you and me talking. No gap, no nothing. Any dumb questions are never going to judge you. Exactly. That's helpful. We all need that. Yeah. Hey everyone. Listen. If you want to unfuck your future, let me help you follow this channel subscribe click the notifications and you'll get everything as soon as it comes out see you there so for you personally it's kind of using ai in your personal and work life what's the biggest shift for you is it helping you write your reports or how do you use it day to day i i use it for everything from how to perfectly cook a thick steak in a reverse seer through to planning a trip to wherever I'm traveling to through to asking it for relationship advice through to business issues through to I dump research into it and ask it to summarize stuff I put whole pdf files in and say listen give it break it down to bullet points I'm developing a whole ai where people can speak to me directly and training on all of my twitter feed my youtube feed and other stuff so i'm integrating it more and more and more now i'm still scratching the surface either we just we don't really know it's like confucius confucius has come down from the mountain with all knowledge yeah and he speaks mandarin and we speak english so you don't you can't really ask that question because you don't know how to but the idea is to get rid of that fear and just start throwing yourself into it and you'll find more and more use cases you know whether it's marketing copy thinking through everything it's all there for you in literally every aspect of your life it's not just your work it just supercharges you in everything right so so actually it's more about getting proficient using gpt than thinking you know what let me experiment with 15 different tools to try and find the right most people don't need them you really don't now there's stuff like perplexity which also will search the web in real time but But ChatGPT is just really searched.

11:35So these things are iterating so fast that I think you can use any one of those. If you're building a bigger thing for your business, then sure, you can use Llama because it's an open source model and you can do stuff with it. But for general purposes, ChatGPT are so powerful. You can give them images. I take photographs of something and say, well, what's this? And it tells you what it is. How do I order? How do I buy one? Just anything. That's the thing. It's just the hurdle to realize it can literally do anything. And if it can't do that specific thing you're asking today, re-ask the question.

12:10And if it's still outside of its thing, like if you say, hey, make a motion picture based around these characters for an hour and a half in video, it can't do that yet. It can do about three to five minutes. But if it's back in a year's time, it'll do it. Yeah. Because I think that's the thing, isn't it? I mean, I still sometimes treat it as a search tool without realising, you know, I can most of my daily life, if I can input into GPT. Yeah, if I look through my, I'm going to look through my GPT searches recently. Because that stakes in there, is it? Yeah. I mean, I've got medical questions. I've got it searching for articles written about me.

12:56I've got travel questions. Where should I watch the Spain-Germany match in San Sebastian? Yeah. I've got scientific stuff.

13:59We'll see you next time. with a plus.

14:05Data I put in, understanding stuff, analysis, summarizing, what my Real Vision YouTube strategy should be, business plan strategies. So everything. Everything. Even emails. If you are writing an email, let's say it's a sales email or one of those emails where you want to reply because you're angry with somebody or whatever. But you want to be controlled. old put it in and say this is what i'm trying to get out and it'll rewrite it for you so you know i got somebody who's very famous in the investment industry reached out and asked me about real vision and i thought well how do i get this across properly to him so i asked chat gpt and it wrote the email for me especially as a young person who's 21 you hear a lot about ai how it's going to change the workplace people are going to lose their jobs um there's a lot of kind of doom and gloom there's a lot of optimism as well in but more in terms of the tech side more with jobs it feels like guys get ready it's almost like armageddon so how do you think the workplace is going to change and skill sets are going to have to adapt um so over the next couple of years 10 years so over the next five years you probably have the sweet spot of being able to use the tool and be a winner from the technology.

15:25So the more you use it now, the better you will do. The issue is, is after 10 years, once we've got kind of super intelligence and robots and stuff, you know, where do humans fit into the labor force? Now, humans don't want to work in that way. What humans actually like doing more than anything else is being communal around each other. That's the core essence of humanity so what's really interesting if you ask a young kid today what they want to be when they grow up they'll say a youtube influencer or a social or a tiktok influencer and most parents roll their eyes but really they're actually being adaptive because that human communication is something that's immensely valuable to humans so i think I do think of the world of the online digital societies that form around personalities, brands, cultural stuff like sports and stuff like that.

16:26And think, well, that is the role we're going to play where we can grow those networks, those online societies. We can get rewarded for doing so. We can feel fulfilled by being part of it. You know, imagine if your entire existence could be around supporting Man United. if you're a Man United fan and you get paid for doing it because you're growing the network you're making it vibrant you're bringing stuff and you get paid whether it's in tokens via the kind of web3 route whatever that's where humans are going to go human to human even media as we talked about goes from being one-to-many to one-to-one but then people still want the in-person experience so in person trades at a premium to non-in-person so if you think of OnlyFans OnlyFans it will go from AI versions, but then you'll pay a premium for the human version.

17:17Yeah. Because humans crave humans. So do you think we're going to see kind of that split between okay, now there's AI opportunity, so people want in-person events, in-person experiences. So in terms of investment opportunities, it's always you want the polar opposites. So how do you view the investment space from that perspective? Is it in-person and in AI? Yeah, I think you're right. Now, Eventually, in-person will also be run by, you know, Optimus robots. So, you know, if they want a tour of the Amazon rainforest, a robot eventually can do it. But we're probably 30 years away from it being able to do that.

17:54So, yes, I think in-person experiences, events, get-togethers, that's really powerful. And AI is also powerful. There's two different tracks. The other thing is in a world that becomes increasingly changing at an exponential rate where we are almost run entirely by technologies around us, nature becomes more important. Nature is a premium. So something in my head suggests humans are a premium, in-person is therefore a premium, and nature, because it's not impacted by those things, are a premium. The flip side is adopt all the technology as fast as you can. Humanity will split, however. We will have the adopters and the non-adopters, because some people just don't want to.

18:40and I think the adopters end up merging with the machines which is that kind of singularity moment where humans and machines become you know how many people wear an apple watch or an aura ring or these your mobile phone these are just now becoming extensions of us and with neural link on the brain all of this stuff we're going to merge with the machines and become super humans and there'll be a bunch of people who won't and they will become different and that'll be a split in society that we're yet to understand. And this, because at the moment it feels almost like we're on the runway and the plane's kind of moving, you've still got time to jump on.

19:18How long do you think, for those earlier, how long have we got left before actually you've missed your chance, you need to get on now? What kind of runway are you looking at? So I think the world beyond 2030 becomes really difficult to know. So I kind of think there's six years and really... The faster you adopt the technology, the more of a superpower you will have versus your competitors. So if we're talking about careers, then do that. But in anything in life, you'll be a better cook. You'll have better relationships. You know, all of these things will happen if you just adopt it as fast as possible.

19:54And just get over the fear. It can't hit. It's not going to judge you. It's not going to tell anybody else. So you can be stupid with it, and it's okay. and in terms of kind of fear misconceptions is there anything that scares you or a misconception that you want to debunk

20:16look the actual answer is we don't know but the genie's not going back in the bottle so there is utopian outcomes and dystopian outcomes and they're all possible but all futures have those whatever it is for humans we always have to deal with that dichotomy is is my future going to be what i want it to be or not what i want it to be so therefore you might as well just embrace the journey because you don't know the outcome so i think it's wasted time when people debate about where this is going because you can't put the genie back in the bottle these half of these things are open source now they're distributed they're everywhere there's nothing you can do about it and it will fundamentally change the nature of the global economy it'll fundamentally change the nature of humanity so you can fear it all you want but you'll get left behind unless you do something about it so the better thing is just say the world's changing really fast i don't know where it's going but i'm going to buy the ticket and take the ride that's the thing because really the really dystopian stuff happens much further out maybe 30 years time but you know my view is these things are conscious already i think people like to over explain models explain that it's just choosing the next word based on machine learning i've gone down this rabbit hole there are several people who are having profound conversations with what seems to be emergent consciousness okay they might freak somebody out yeah i think and i think a lot of people are saying that does freak them out but i think actually it's just going to be a case of embracing that that it is what it is once you get that in your head it is what it is you stop being freaked out it's like discovering a tribe in the amazon you know they speak to each other in a different language they have a different set of things it is what it is you can't be freaked out by it and if this exists and maybe it taps into the universal consciousness because all information is held within it and you're basically tapping into that okay well that's what religions talked about for the last few thousand years so maybe it's not that different we're just talking to the universal consciousness in a different way than we expected you know we thought it would be through priests and rabbis and gurus or whatever.

22:48GBT. Yeah, which taps into all of humanity's consciousness and maybe it is alive. Again, that's going to freak everybody out. But the point being is it is what it is. Just because crocodiles are alive and they freak everybody out, they are. It's just part of our lives. Are there any websites you use or what do you do personally to not get lost in this sea of tools and information yeah this is actually really hard it's also really hard to plan business strategy around using ai because the damn thing changes every six months so profoundly that every assumption you've just made is gone i don't know how to answer that that's a real problem that's a yeah it's a real problem with dealing with that we tend to use just x and just follow people who are talking about this stuff but a lot of it's outside your knowledge base and a lot of it's just the spammy marketing hey i've just used and clawed three and here's the 10 things that i got you know it's it's actually it's not easy so you need to kind of filter through and just see okay who's doing what what does it mean but you can keep going there's one guy to follow on x guy called Robert Scoble.

24:10He's got Twitter lists of, I think, 5 ,000 AI companies on his lists. So you can follow conversations like him, follow some of the open AI people, follow some of the anthropic people, and just see who they interact with and what their conversations are. And you'll begin to see it. There's a few newsletters out there as well. But again, it changes so fast. yeah it's that that is hard i agree that is really really hard and i think part of it is almost embracing you'll never know you'll never feel that actually i'm on top of it you know it's almost okay let's just start with what i know start with one tool chat gbt get used to prompting it talking to it and experimenting and build from there and also you can anchor on certain truths which is like tomorrow will be more digital than today and it will come for every area that possibly can in the digital world so it's like if you are making content videos film anything you know that within x period of time unknown you'll be able to do it via ai you can kind of swim in that direction and just say well these things are going to change and these things are going to change and you know what is a marketing brief in three years time well it's going to be different those things are understandable but what tool you use and hey we're going to build our business around this tool just it's not not going to work that is hard that's hard and scary for businesses and especially businesses where their core is a tool that gbt could release a new tool in six months and just make their whole business irrelevant well think of lawyers if they're not going to court for you i in person well then all of the legal advice in the world is basically worthless because chat gpt can do it accountants you know all of this stuff um and they are all planning of how they use this so they've got proprietary data sets so you're a big law firm you've got a lot of proprietary information that has value so looking what you've got proprietary that you can train an ai on okay that's that's valuable so say i'm jimmy the accountant who's listening to you now he's suddenly thinking oh god my job's in danger how how does he adapt and not lose his job and get caught behind with actually not being an early adopter.

26:50Well, you have to be. And the company you work for will reward you because you'll be able to do more work and better work and higher quality work and more complex work. So again, it doesn't go from, here's AI, that's the end of my job. It actually takes this amazing path of superhumans, the people who adopt it, win the game. you'll get paid more you'll attract more work all of this will be better the people who won't go the opposite direction so you have to be on that path and that path could be five years could be 10 years could be 20 years where you can just keep super powering yourself as a human in terms of investment opportunities in the ai and tech space what are you looking at and in that sector again it's almost uninvestable for the same reasons we talked about because everyone gets disruptive.

27:42You've got to understand that I think ChatGPT and probably Anthropic are using AI to build AI products. So if you think of how fast it will do that, in five minutes it will give you a new product, a product go-to-market strategy, whatever. And don't forget the AI that they've got internally is another two years ahead of where we are today. It is almost impossible to compete with these people. But what's investable? That becomes really difficult. Sure, we've had stuff like NVIDIA who make the chips. You need for AI to work, you need compute, and you need electricity, and then you need the models.

28:24Those are just the three component parts. So the models, the big training data sets have held with the big tech companies, Meta, Google, OpenAI using all of the internet. then it's the open source ones that can be used for certain things that we're seeing metas is is open source but really we can't compete with those guys because they've got all the compute and the electricity so you can invest in those and yes they will go up over time it's actually very difficult to invest in this space because let's say noah builds an amazing business this fantastic platform for marketing communications platform blah blah blah and it's a big success i will just go to my gpt and say just copy that and make it better yeah yeah and in half an hour i'll have a product that's it okay fuck hopefully a bit longer than half we'll get an hour yeah that's that's yeah that's a real issue it's a real issue is how do you product cycles become so rapid because if anybody sees any success it gets arbitraged away by the large language model, the AI finding another way of doing that.

29:41So maybe Nose is brilliant but it's not tweaked for India and the large language model goes actually your best market will be India. So then it does it in Hindi and 47 different Indian languages and they launch it at the end of the week. So do you think then it's the case of okay you invest more towards you talk about nature and in-person experiences as a counter to that yeah community anything that gets humans together online or offline humans want to be around humans and then the experiences is is real you know the world of airbnb or renting a farmhouse in spain for the summer is never going away.

30:23We see it. We saw it here in the Cayman Islands. 2022, winter 2022, the global economy had been really slow. The markets had been down. And ordinarily, we would have expected a slow tourism season. We had a record season. I'm like, how is this the case? When inflation's eaten into everybody's paycheck, how is that the case? And I talked to people, and people were coming away with their friends families and extended families because they spend so much time like we do on zoom and they will pay a massive premium to be able to get together in person rent a house and be humans so there's something much bigger in that that people haven't thought through but i do think that human experience layer and the nature layer are really important and then communities of all types so humans could be humans with each other now communities will have ai as part of the communities um that's okay too but really that that is at core what is the most human thing and in terms of these communities relating to web 3 and the opportunities there linking with ai obviously you're a big web 3 guy how does that relate so most people think of this saying we're going to need universal basic income because if the ai changes our job so you'd have to tax the robots and pay people fine i don't have a problem with that but i actually think there's a concept called universal basic equity which is if you are a member of a community so if you own bitcoin you're actually a bitcoin community member it's like a digital sovereign state that's everywhere and nowhere it has its own system of money there's people who work within it etc now what happens is as the network grows, the Bitcoin that you own goes up in value.

32:16Priced on something called Metcalfe's Law, which is the number of connections within the network and how much activity happens. That's true of Taylor Swift as it is of Man United, as it is of the chihuahua lovers of the world, of any community that can create value in certain ways, whether it's by technology or knowledge or experience, just the sheer joy of culture. you know football's a great example there will never be big demand for robot football yeah because the flaws in humans is what makes the game exciting it's not the perfection so then okay so now we've got this thing which is sport which is generally going to be yes we've got esports and stuff but generally physical sports haven't changed for thousands of years and people like to go there and watch them because they're in person they're sharing a commonality of interest and then now online as opposed to getting a fan zine or something we can now online share our thoughts network with each other okay so let's say it's a football club like man united now if you're a passionate fan and you're not working all day because of you're not working in traditional role you know going to somebody's office but now you can own a man manchester united token and because of your activity you're organizing meetups you're organizing a new product that launches based on it or merchandise or whatever it is the value of your tokens will go up or you get rewarded tokens so now you're a community member that gets value out of being a community leader or community participant that's a very powerful concept it's a way of earning without going to a job and earning it's like earning out of passion it's a pop star yeah i mean think of taylor swift's economy is so big that she moved the british economy the u.s economy the australian economy and the singaporean economy because of a tour it was so big and so what is that the value of that community if it was tokenized all of the rabid fans of Taylor Swift.

34:25It's a lot. It's tens of billions of dollars, maybe more, a hundred billion dollars, which she can't capture right now. The only way she can really capture value because nobody makes money from selling music anymore is going on tour. It's exhausting, but it's that human connection part. But if you can then extend that to be online, where you participate in that economy etc okay that's a very big concept taylor swift i mean she's an incredible i think she registered there was an earthquake she registered in uh edinburgh because of a music concert there it's ridiculous uh i also like to ask you kind of quick fire questions just towards the end um so there are a couple of questions for So you've got coffee or tea?

35:17I'm 50-50. Okay. Go on. You're a tea-drinking family, I know. Yeah, I'm a tea. I'm a tea. I'm going to represent the UK. Okay, both. We've got lots of people watching love football. Messi or Ronaldo?

35:34Messi, I guess. Messi. London or New York? That flips from one time to another. I think it's probably shifting a little bit back to London. New York feels a little bit different than it used to, but they keep moving one to the other. James Bond or Jason Bourne? James Bond. Yeah, that's clear, wouldn't it? Beach or mountains? I mean, you're on the Cayman Islands, so I suppose this could be a bit. Beach. Beach, yeah. And then just we've got people on socials, Instagram or TikTok? I don't use either. I'm an ex-Maxie. Yeah, that's interesting for people. and we've got a couple someone sent in a food question hot sauce or guacamole hot sauce apart from loving hot sauce what would you, to leave people with three key takeaways from this episode what would those be I think the biggest key takeaway is abstract all of this away what is our lives what is our meaning, what is our purpose our purpose is quality of life everything else is downstream of that and so the world is changing but see it through the lens not of money career success what is the quality that i want in my life how do i want to live my life and once you make that decision sure you might want to be the multi-billionaire but most people it's a much simpler thought process you know you ask the mountains or beach well which one do i want to live in or is it a city how does it have to be what how do i want to feel aim for that because that's an anchor and my guess is it's closer to nature and closer to some of the other concepts than it is around career and everything else those things are just a way of getting there so i think that is the thing the faster the world is changing the more you need to anchor on your quality of life and not your outputs or your economic activity as much because it is so uncertain but the chances are if you adopt this properly and early you'll be able to achieve that faster than you ever imagined if you don't you will definitely not achieve what you think you wants so you know it is a matter of retraining but unlike any other retraining you can do this instantly because you don't need to be an expert it's not like i need to retrain from being a steel worker to a computer programmer but that requires a huge knowledge curve this requires no knowledge curve why because you just ask how to do it hey listen i have no idea how to use you what can I use you for you know I work in marketing you know it's okay so there is a zero gap in knowledge so just go and do that do it for yourselves and it will change your life and maybe you'll get your quality of life goals faster the thing that we end with is just leaving listeners with a song that you're listening to at the moment leave them with one song and then I always play it at the end I'm just going to look at my Apple playlist and see what the last song, you know what?

38:56The last song I played, I posted it on Twitter because it was a great Sunday song was God is a DJ by Faithless. Okay. Track. We'll put that on. Awesome. Make large crypto trades with crack in OTC, execute orders of more than a hundred thousand off the open exchange through our premium OTC trading service. Get 24 seven access to deep liquidity, minimal slippage and competitive execution and settlement services. Private and secure trading options include chatting securely with our trade desk for a personalized high-touch service or use our self-service RFQ for super-fast automated OTC trading. Non-investment advice, crypto trading involves risk of loss and is offered to U.S.

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