URGENT Update: Is the BOTTOM IN?

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0:39see you in token 2049

0:45hey everyone look sorry this is the cheesy interruption that you get on youtube channels but they're really important i'd really appreciate it if you just hit the subscribe button you see it makes a difference to know how i'm doing seeing the growth in subscribers if we're getting the right content. Obviously, comments help as well. But hitting the subscribe button allows me also to book the best guests. It really does make a difference. So if you do enjoy this content, and I know you do because you keep coming back to watch it, just please hit the subscribe button. Sorry again for the cheese, but it is important.

1:17I appreciate it so much. Take care. Join me, Raoul Pal, as I go on a journey of discovery through the macro, crypto, and exponential age landscapes. In The Journeyman, I talk to the smartest people in the world so we can all become smarter together.

1:38Hi everyone, I'm Raoul Powell and this is my show The Journeyman. And occasionally I like to do a flash update for you all. And I know many of you are focused on the crypto markets. and my last flash update was when we had that nuke down to about 120 in solana and um i kind of steady people said listen i think the low is in now subsequently bounced from there and it came all the way back down tried to retest that low and failed and then started bouncing again and the point of this video to say when everyone's saying when banana when is the banana zone I'm going to show you that I think it's coming and I think Salah is going to lead it and as I've urged with you patience is required these things don't come instantaneously but when they come they can be life-changing you see we're at that point in the four-year cycle just ahead of the US election where things get very exciting and often around the halving period there is a pause It's often global liquidity has paused, which has happened recently.

2:50But on a forward-looking basis, as I'll explain to you in other videos, liquidity is about to surge. Liquidity is about to surge while some other very interesting things are going on. You see, Solana had some very big announcements. If you remember, there were two things that struck me about Solana that I really liked outside of the fact that there's a lot of developers building on it. It's a great network. they've got the right narrative um they're focused on kind of retail mass adoption and we've obviously seen mean coins but there were two big things there that really got me interested one was nft compression which means nfts can be opened up for different use cases whether it's ticketing whatever it is even derivative contracts compressed nfts allowed massive scale nfts at low cost then it was fired answer that got me really across the line made me all in on solana where i'm now 90 of my crypto allocation which is 100 of my liquid net worth is in solana which may be foolish to some of you but i think that market concentration is is the right way of doing things when you've got everything correlated because of the everything code and i urge you to watch the everything code video, if you haven't seen it already, that it goes through all this in debt.

4:07So Solana was my chosen bet because it started breaking out versus Bitcoin and versus Ethereum back in about October last year that made me pull the final trigger to say, yes, this is going to be the chosen one of this cycle of the larger tokens. But then this week we had more news. One, ZK compression. ZK compression zero knowledge compression is what it's doing is allowing the solana chain to scale massively okay that's really important and when that goes to hand in hand with fire dancer which was the other big one fire dancer allows a tps that's unparalleled up to a million tps once you put a million tps with compressed nfts and then a whole compressed chain what you've got is the most scalable, fastest blockchain in the world.

5:03And that to me is important for mass adoption. The next phase of that was Blink. Blink was a step towards mass adoption where you can embed a code and it can appear on any Web2 site where you can create transactions in Solana. There's something massively empowering because it means any website can do that now. So you kind of don't need that embedding a new wallet for every experience or driving them to a different landing page to do something. You can do it straight on social media itself or on a third-party website. So you're creating more and more ways for people to use this ecosystem. Look, I think it's very, very powerful.

5:44Anyway, let's look at the charts because the charts tell the story to say, listen, this is probably the last chance you're going to get to buy these big layer ones before we hit the banana zone. So this is now the start of the banana and it should continue all into next year and through at least early next year. Now, obviously we will see corrections on route. Obviously, I'm not always right, but let me show you what's in my head. So if I share my screen. Hey everyone, listen, if you want to unfuck your future, let me help you follow this channel subscribe click the notifications and you'll get everything as soon as it comes out see you there okay so this is work i've done a global macro investor which is my uh research service now obviously if you're watching this uh you're on youtube please subscribe to the channel um just click on it quickly uh that'll help tremendously and if you want more details then obviously i'd rather if you went across to realvision.com we'll about that afterwards.

6:49Right, quickly. So GMI. So this is Raoul GMI. I never represent myself as from Real Vision because Real Vision doesn't have a view. It's a platform. I, as Raoul from GMI, I've been doing this for 20 years, have a view. So the Solana chart is textbook perfect wedge pattern. I put this on social media. I've talked about it. It's absolutely perfect. So that was the final retest. We've had three tests of the lower trend line, three tests of the upper trend line, that is about, for me, these patterns have the highest probability of success of all patterns. Continuation, wedges, triangles, whatever you want to call them.

7:26I don't get bogged down the exact methodology, pennants. I just say everything looks like a wedge is a wedge. For me, that's a wedge. When it breaks the top, it accelerates. But now from the bottom part, this gets really interesting. Now, what is also interesting is at global Microinvestor, we look at the volatility of assets and see when they get to very low vol assets, often they reverse and go to higher volatility. In crypto, generally, low volatility is downtrending markets and high volatility is uptrending markets. So every time that Solana has got down to this 50 level in 30-day historic volatility, it's tended to reverse.

8:14This is exactly what happened yesterday. And the last five times it's done this, from this level, it did 109 % in December in two months, 32 % in two months in June, August 57 % in two months, September 527 % in three months, February 78 % in three months. So it's a very powerful signal that I really, really like. Now, the same signal is actually seen on Bitcoin. The good thing about Bitcoin is we've got a longer price history. So every time we've got somewhere close to the 20 % volatility, Bitcoin more mature, less volatile, has bounced massively. And again, if you look at the numbers, these bounces have led 83%, 85%, 200%, 100%, 85%, 71%.

9:01These are bloody good signals. Now, nothing is fallible, or nothing is infallible, but it puts probability on your side. The other thing that I look for is continued strength from a leader versus others. And this is crucial that you understand this, is this is Solana versus Bitcoin. It is stair-stepped higher and higher and higher. You can see when I bought Solana, when it broke out versus Bitcoin and Ethereum, I'll show you in a sec, back in September, October last year, and then it stair steps higher. So we're about to explode through the next level. So owning Solana should outperform owning Bitcoin.

9:42And here's the same chart versus ETH. Very similar kind of pattern. We expect once we get that kind of 0.055 level in Sol ETH, even with the ETH ETF, we should see Solana outperform. Now, we also had the news today that BANEC have filed for a Solana ETF. That doesn't mean it's going to get approved. Some of these people have filed for years in advance. They just want to get in, get some feedback from the SEC. But we know people are going to want to go for a Solana NFT ETH first. By the time you're watching this, within a week, we should have an ETH ETF, which should start bringing new capital flows into crypto land.

10:22And it will flow out the risk curve as always. So it goes into ETH, it'll spread into Solana, and then it'll spread down the risk curve and things like WIFT or whatever it is outperform. That's not a trade rack, but just that's usually how it works. So I think we've got everything in place for Solana and Bitcoin. Solana to outperform ETH and Bitcoin. Also, we're about to see Ethereum break out against Bitcoin. This is an important, important thing. Something I've been talking about waiting for happen. It's a beautiful chart pattern. It should get to the top of the range and then maybe it breaks out of the top of the range and ETH gains further ground against Bitcoin and puts it a new all-time high.

11:07That has been my base case for several years now. And I think it's going to be proven out. But let's see. Right now, ETH is not my main bet. My ETH is actually all in XCopy, Artem, Beeple, NFTs. So my actual liquid tokens, Solana, because Solana is going to outperform both ETH and Bitcoin. Now, when Bitcoin starts outperforming ETH and Solana outperforms the others, that's a classic marker of altcoin season starting. Here is the prior altcoin season versus this one. It's been almost immaculate in its perfection. Now, don't expect this to play out perfectly, but look what lies ahead. The banana zone.

11:49The banana zone is when all sorts of crazy stuff starts happening. Now, it's suggesting here that we can see a 10x in the entire market cap of altcoins ex-Ethereum. Okay, that's a lot. That's a huge move. Some of these things are going to move massively. And again, remember the thesis, don't fuck this up. You're going to lose your mind. You're going to be buying all the stupid shit your friends are telling you about. Just be careful. Keep the majority in the majors. Keep 80, 90 % in the majors. Keep 10 % for capturing some stuff here. Most of it you'll fail to make money on. Trust me, I've been there before.

12:28Anyway, old coin season about to kick in. Presidential election years. It's hitting your X feed right now. You can see it's warming up. I'm filming this ahead of the presidential debate. this is the time when Bitcoin seasonally is extremely strong. So these summer months, June, July, August, then we get that kind of chop around that ahead of the election where people don't know what it means and who's going to be taxed and whatever. So people reduce risk a bit. And then after the election, whoever wins, the market continues the banana zone. That's generally the pattern. Again, don't expect its perfection, but generally it's up and to the right from here onwards with a consolidation correction in the middle and expect those corrections, that volatility.

13:14Expect down 35%, down 25%. They're all normal. Like on X in the last week or two weeks, three weeks, people are losing their minds because the market went sideways. Guys, patience. Have a long-term view. Okay, the banana zone. So we did the Bitcoin halving zone. the boring zone is completing now and next we go into the full banana zone you can see the phases of the market that's what we should be expecting to see and that's what i'm hoping to see that's the 2016 bitcoin halving cycle it's the most similar to me right now again don't expect the things to play out the same but i think it more likely plays out more like the 16 17 cycle than it does the 2021 cycle.

14:01We'll just have to see. We'll have to look when we go. But the banana zone cometh. And that is your reward. These are the bananas. That curve on the chart, that's the reward you're going to get for holding on for your dear fucking life. Patience. Don't get over your ski tips. Don't use leverage. Don't FOMO into dumb shit. Keep the right assets in your portfolio. Don't go too far out the risk curve and just let it all play out. Patience is a virtue. Anyway, I just want to share that with you. Let me stop sharing my screen because I know everyone gets confused. Everyone gets nervous because look, the reality is the banana zone is funny.

14:47It's funny because it's shaped like a banana. It's phallic. It's just amusing. Markets go bananas. We all love it. we all act like I get that. But I also understand fully it's everybody's hopes and dreams. So look, I take that very responsibly and it's scary sticking my neck out this much. But I'm trying to help as many people as possible. I honestly think this space going from two and a half trillion in crypto to 100 trillion by let's say 2032 is going to be the biggest, largest wealth accumulation in history. And I want everybody to come along with the ride. It won't be easy. You will fuck it up at some point but and so will i but we'll do our best to make it there in one piece and to have made a ton of money because it is the way to unfuck your future i know there's a lot of swearing in these things but these are effective means of communications that means to communicate that this is really important how to unfuck your future and that you need to abide by a set of rules to not get thrown off.

15:49Don't fuck this up. Those two things should be immensely powerful for you in your journey. Now, I think Solana outperforms. I think there's going to be other coins that outperform Solana, particularly big layer ones. I'd love to hear from you in the comment section what you think is going to beat Solana. There's people on Twitter keep shilling me coins. And I say, well, show me the chart that's outperforming Solana and I'll listen to you. now a small mean coin doesn't really count but i do think whiff has a decent chance of outperforming solana now i won't put my main money in whiff why don't fuck this up rules says don't do that but there are going to be opportunities to be had so drop yours in the link below and listen if you want more of this if you want to understand more about crypto we have so much at real vision also about macro so it's free to join you'd be crazy not to i built it for you to help you unfuck your future so go to realvision.com sign up for free and i'll see you there take care

16:57it's a brilliant brilliant event and you'll come away with lots of new ideas and a better understanding of this incredible exponential world

17:10you get to speak to the smartest people people like you trying to figure this out but also the people on stage they're the experts

17:22so we get all of that all in one place in singapore what more can you ask

17:33see you at token 2049

17:39We hope you enjoyed the video. At Real Vision, we help you understand the complex world of finance, business, and the global economy with in-depth analysis from real experts. Join the revolution at realvision.com.