Wen Banana Zone? - Drinks With Raoul Pal (Round 17)

28:54Somebody likes a piece of art, you don't like it. Great. I'm happy you bought it. I'm pleased you're excited. You've bought a token. You think you've figured out a really good story behind it. It's not one I like. Good for you. I hope it works out. I hope everybody succeeds because that's how we unfuck our future. It's not from robbing one person against the other. It's about all succeeding. And there is no one answer. Anything I say should only be one of the inputs for you. Your input should be based on what you think, learning from us. That's what we do at Real Vision. We try and educate you, give you frameworks of understanding.

29:33And listen again, if you haven't joined Real Vision and you're online and you're getting confused and you're getting angry, go to Real Vision. I promise you, it will change. Really, the key thing for you is get to the, go for free. Go there for free, but then check out Real Vision Alpha. That's where Julian Patel and my macro investing tool is, where we give you the framework. That's when you get exposure to Andreas Tano-Larsen. That's when you hear Julian Patel and myself doing the shooting the shit, where we just talk about how we're seeing markets, stuff like that. It'll give you the framework of understanding.

30:09You get to use our AI. You get to understand how to do stuff. there's an ai of me where you can talk to it normally and ask me questions it's trained on all my content and it will help you but being chippy on twitter because you're stupid doesn't help anybody we're all stupid at some points in the journey and just accept that that was the reason i gave up golf by the way is i was shit at golf because i'm not coordinated i'm like bambi on ice because i'm too tall lots of limbs no coordination i kind of my eyesight's over here things happen on the ground down there because i'm six foot four and it's like not great anyway i hacked my way around a golf course with friends for several years and eventually i was on a golf course in spain actually and i was slicing and hacking and just fucking it all up just nothing came together and there was these dutch people behind me i'm half dutch so i can insult them that's gonna be really really really rude and they were just tutting at me you shouldn't be on the golf course i'm like well i've got to learn yeah but not when we're playing golf i'm like a they force you to wear stupid clothes b you then not allowed to learn on the golf course but heaven forbid you hold somebody up um and then they're all snobbish about golf club memberships and all of that i just got my bags my clubs threw them in the bin walked off and said i'm never fucking playing this sport again, because it's not a sport.

31:33It's just a beautiful walk ruined by short grass. Okay, let's get back to the insults.

31:42Okay. Up, down, down, left, right, decks over sex. I'm showing Kim Asendorf. Kim Asendorf is somebody, is an artist that is a cutting-edge pioneer of computer art. And that's not AI driven so much as computer art. It's like doing new extraordinary things where each pixel is a separate token that forms this collage that you can move around and you can choose the number of pixels. You can buy more pixels, less pixels. It's one of the most extraordinary things I've ever seen. I saw it at Ian Rogers' house, the guy from Ledger in Paris, and I'm like, I love this. It's an amazing thing. Up, down, down, left, right.

32:33Worth zero. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. It's fucking art. It doesn't matter. Do you like it? No, I don't really like that or don't really get it. That's okay. Worth zero. People just are the worst. I mean, not you lot. You lot are lovely. I just don't know what drives people. I just don't go around doing that. It's all right to troll occasionally, but it's just like i don't know what's their problem it's just the weirdest thing um okay next one okay michael b 3909 youtube comments are particular cesspool of awfulness i don't know why i guess because it's not like an engagement tool like twitter where you're talking to each other.

33:23It's just a new level of awfulness generally. So Michael, please stop with this banana zone crap. There isn't one. There isn't going to be one. Most alts are way below all-time highs. Keep earning your income from your online channel, I would. So we're going to go into this whole when banana thing in a sec. So what people confuse is that when their allocations, their alts, isn't doing okay, or it's experiencing more volatility than Bitcoin, which is normal. They lose their fucking shit. And I get it. Everyone's hopes and dreams are in all of this. But I don't know what allocation they've got, but it becomes this emotional reaction.

34:11And it's so weird. It will all work out over time. I'll show you the charts. The banana zone is in play, has been in play since last year. We've given you the roadmap. We'll talk about that. It's just, you just need to relax a little bit. Anything way below the all-time high, that's okay. Everything is, including Ethereum, Solana, all of it. Some have hit new all-time highs this year, new cycle tokens, obviously. It'll all work out over time. Patience is something. Patience, you don't get, you have to trade off something to make money. That is the risk reward. And the risk reward in this space is you can make extraordinary returns if you make the right asset allocation and you stomach preposterous amounts of volatility, which makes it hard because you don't know whether you've made the right allocation because it's volatile, which is why I talk about looking at the relative charts.

35:11Is my favorite bag outperforming Solana, yes or no? If it's not, don't own it. Is it outperforming Bitcoin? Has it been on a weekly chart? Don't show me like the hourly chart the last few days. Like, look at this. It's amazing. That's bullshit. Show me a weekly chart over time trending. And if it's doing it, great, you're onto something. If not, shut the fuck up. Thank you. Next. Bobby Bob, Crypto Aerobase. Why does crypto suck ass? Because, exactly my point. Krita's not easy. It is not a gift from the gods that comes without pain. No, no, no, no. The gods are going to flay you, whip you, fry you, rip your skin off, and then deliver you to heaven.

36:02That's the way it goes. It's fucking, it's not easy. Why do you think I've got a great beard, for God's sake? Okay, next. I don't know what I'm enjoying more. that was the last that was the last one i don't know what i'm enjoying more i'm just going to go back sorry i'm now flitting between drink this is the problem i warned you about i'm going to end up drinking one and a half bottles of wine in front of you all it's going to be embarrassing um my girlfriend will disown me actually she won't she'll laugh at me um but um but i'll become a liability i'll start swearing more as well as you know i'll be vaping soon as well as you know because that's what happens when you're speaking to yourself, entertaining 250 ,000 people and having a really good time.

36:49I don't know what it says about me. It says something weird about me. I'm going to go back to the Corp. Corp. These are both so good. It's like, I'm on the ham and the cheese. So let's talk about when banana. When banana comes up in every fucking tweet. Wenbanana. And I just think, and I trolled actually Julian Bittell with this because he put something out on Wenbanana because it drives me fucking insane, which was why Di had made the T-shirt about it as well, Di with the most likes. That whole T-shirt print was a kind of tongue-in-cheek to this. It's like I've given you literally the chart that everybody in the world copied, the M2 chart.

37:45I've given you the long-term 90 % correlation chart of global liquidity. I've given you the entire everything code framework, and it's all been playing out. We haven't really put a foot wrong. The volatility is part of the game. We've explained it. We gave you the don't fuck this up rules. And yet, we're in banana. and the dim-witted ninnies who was yes dim-witted ninnies that's my new term of affection for the when banana crowd and feel free to put when banana all over twitter now because you can troll me i don't mind as long as it's done with good humor um is the the when banana is like there's the chart of m2 that's been working that we nailed the exact low in september with and said, this is the low based on liquidity on our analysis that we've been working on for 30 years.

38:36Here it is. This is the start of banana zone. The Bitcoin doubles. SUI goes up 5x. SUI pulls back 50%. Bitcoin pulls back a bit, 20%. Everyone's like, where's the fucking banana? Then it goes up. Bitcoin's now pretty much back to almost all-time highs today. when banana well suey's down from all-time highs but it's still up since then and we've explained the correction zone we've explained that ultimol volatile to bitcoin and so what normally happens is the altcoin season comes the chart actually shows you where it's going to go will it be exact No. Will it vary from that? Yes. Is it directionally right?

39:22Yes. A hundred percent. Ninety percent of all of the price action of Bitcoin is driven by one factor. It's the easiest fucking trade in the world. One factor, liquidity. And if you want to approximate liquidity, use GlobalM2. If you can't even bother with GlobalM2, just look what the dollar's doing. Go back. Well, look at the dollar's doing today and go back in a few days. like six months, nine months, whatever the number is. I can't remember now because I've had a couple of drinks. But it basically tells you what's going to happen. It's macro. It's not magic. And then within the tokens themselves, it's not that difficult.

40:02It's all about network adoption, number of active users, total value transacted, and then it is the chart outperforming Bitcoin, Ethereum, so on. and it's that but the dimwitted ninnies when banana when the fucking chart is there and I'll go through the chart in a sec guys what's wrong with you and again I know our hopes and dreams are tied in this it's frustrating when the market does nothing for a while it chops around and your alts bleed it's part of the game unless you're being hung drawn and quartered and flailed you don't deserve to be here because that's what it takes. Honestly, it does.

40:47It's not the easiest game in the world, right? But once you get used to it, you kind of just laugh at it and just gets a bit boring. You know, SUI, which is my main bet, down 50%. I'm still up huge because of the allocation switch that I did, and it's okay. It's okay. I've been down 90 % twice in bear markets. It's okay because you look at the long-term adoption curve and you try and do the right things, which is compounding in sell-offs. Buy when the market's down. If we're not near the end of the cycle, then you keep going. So, right, I'm already 43 minutes in. We've not even got to the fucking alpha stage yet.

41:25I'm still in drinking wine, enjoying myself phase. Right, I think for the alpha stage, do I do red? Now I'm going to go to, I'll finish my carver. Then we'll go to red, different snacks, and then I can drink what the fuck I want. You can do whatever you want, I don't care. You can start drinking Bud Light, I don't care. Oh, it's 4th of July coming up. This is hilarious moments of culture where the Brits celebrate the fact that we got rid of you lot. You celebrate you got rid of us, you know, because of some fucking tariff over tea. Look at you guys now. Oh, yeah. Well, that's smart now, aren't we?

42:00It's the same thing, right? You're doing it to everybody else. And no taxation without representation. I don't see many Chinese voting for you. so that's and then you set off fireworks I mean I don't know what you eat really I've spent a lot of time in the US and the more time I spend outside of Miami and New York and LA is the more shocked I am about what the fuck you guys eat it's just it's good for you it's your culture you love it and I love it the fact that you love it

42:39so cheers If you want to put, I don't know, sweet cream on top of potatoes and then bacon bits and some mozzarella, you do you. Just do that. I'm so happy for you. Maybe sprinkle some sugar on top and then use one of those guns and burn it a bit and call that a delicacy. You do you. It's amazing. Okay. Let's go to the presentation because I'm wittering on. Presentation, presentation. What the fuck is it? see this is the issue right after a couple of drinks it all starts falling apart because i'm now having fun talking to myself thinking oh my god people are going to be so upset with me which is amusing because i don't troll on twitter i don't troll anywhere this is where i troll you lot for being barbaric philistines who don't know what the fuck you're doing and i abuse you and call you what was the exact phrase again um dimwitted ninnies and that's pretty fair i've called you motherfuckers occasionally and i think that that's fair as well uh you can deal with that uh and you call me everything under the sun generally handsome charming and um culture those are generally what you call me online i sit all the time generally i'll rally so handsome cultured and charming why thank you that's so kind of you let's keep doing that no you just call me a cunt all day um it's extraordinary maybe that's the first time to the c word i do like that word i'm sorry some people get very offended again i can anyway we've talked about this i'm trying to drink three bottles of wine all at the same time it's going to get ugly there's nothing i can say about it um okay let's share this screen jillian nicely called it drinks with raul that's me these are the drinks we're having I'm having.

44:32Hopefully you guys are drinking along at home because there is no other show like this on the internet. As far as I know, I'm pretty proud of it. Cause it's just an utter ridiculous shit show of a show. It makes me laugh, makes you laugh. And sometimes I get something like, Oh, I wish you'd stop swearing so much. Or how can you call your audience dimwitted ninnies? It's just parts of it. It's just parts of the magic of the show, which is fucking great. I mean, I go back and rewatch this because I see the comments. I see everything. I mean, I just love it. It's just hilarious. And I love doing it.

45:08And I love showing people about food and wine. By the way, the Rowlbot on Real Vision, you click on the top left-hand side, you see the picture of me. Click on that. You can ask it questions. It's trained on wine books as well. So I've given it books to train. So you can ask it about food and wine, travel, macro, crypto, anything. You name it, it's all there. So make use of it because it's an incredibly powerful thing. I've trained it on a ton of proprietary stuff for me. That's just the start of where that's going as we build out the platform. That's another thing. While we're here, before we get into this, if you think I'm going to add value for you, at the end of it, just go to realvision.com forward slash join.

45:54Sign up for free if you're watching this elsewhere. If you're watching this free on Real Vision, and I thank you for being there, it's about time you upgraded. I mean, we just did the fucking campaign. It was a great campaign. Many of you did, but a bunch of you didn't do it. We're trying to help you. Sign up for Real Vision Alpha, Real Vision Connect, go and do it, or Real Vision Pro. We're the real valuers. So this presentation is from Real Vision Alpha, Pro, all of that stuff. In Pro, the difference is you get to speak to Julian and I. I mean, we literally have Zoom calls with everybody, talk about stuff, talk about portfolios, talk about what you're thinking about stuff.

46:34So that's the pro. You get access to us in Plus. You get to hear us talking about stuff, but also you get MIT, which comes out weekly, that literally gives you the roadmap for the global economy and markets. And yet you're trolling on X, saying, well, I'm banana. Oh, RAL charges for subscriptions. Are you fucking stupid? Obviously I do, because this is incredible stuff. Right, let's do it. We're running so late. I don't care. I'm on my own here currently because my girlfriend's gone back to Texas for the 4th of July. And abandoned me. So I'm just drinking my own and talking to you lot. So I've got all this time in the world.

47:17OK, so a lot of chance to get through lots of alpha. Ready? One, three, two, one. Okay, the Trump cycle. 2017, we've been talking about this. Trump came in. The markets reacted. Same fear about tariffs. Same thing. The dollar went up. Everything else. And the same thing happened this time around. I mean, people are people. And what happened is the dollar ripped in the back end of 2016. It ripped in the back end of 2024. The dollar ripping is a tightening of financial conditions that play through markets and the economy three months later, which is why we had the correction in the first quarter.

48:01We showed you all of this as part of the M2 thing. Anyway, we said it at the time. We've been tracking this before the dollar topped out and said, he's going to go for a weak dollar. They said they want a weak dollar. And fuck me, the dollar's been weak. It's been an extraordinary weakness. Now, this is not some structural ever-ending weakness. They'll come at some point when we change the rules of the game. Right now, cyclical weakness being pushed by Trump and Besson, and it will continue to do so. And that is an amazing tailwind for markets and risk. Bonds, everyone's like, oh, my God, bond yields every time they go up.

48:35They're going to break out at 6%. All the drama of the macro people. It's like last time, bonds were in a range for Trump. They'll probably be in a range for Trump this time. He'll get the front end lower and the yield curve will steep. and he will force the front end lower by changing the Fed chair, et cetera. And so bond yields are really not a big deal for this equation. So let's not worry about that shit. That's the macro doomers on X. We'll talk about that. I'm going to start reaching for the red. I'm probably going to go. I won't drink red all day because it's summer here and I don't really want to.

49:17And red in the end actually gives me migraines these days. This one does not. This is, for me, the greatest wine in the world, which is Lopez de Heredia, Vignetta Tondonia. This is the Reserva. The Grand Reserva is, I think, one of the greatest wines on earth. And I drink the older ones, you know, pre-1990. And this is really old school Rioja. So old school that they wouldn't use tractors. They put grapes and baskets on their back because they want to bruise the grapes. It's like the most old school of old school. Low alcohol, don't jam it with the sugar, high alcohol to please people. And then they stick it in oak barrels for as long as you possibly can.

50:05And what you get is this incredible, elegant, oaky, delicious wine.

50:18I mean, for me, it's the greatest wine in the world. What we're going to wash it down with food-wise is something called, sorry, here's my snack plate. You can't see me reaching over on the side. This is called cecina. Cecina is a cured beef, kind of like Bressaiola, but it's got it's smoked there's a slight smokiness to it and it's incredible called Cecina c-e-c-i-n-a you can't find it in most places you won't be able to find it easily in in the us or in the uk maybe australia no chance but it is utterly delicious that smokiness goes with the vanilla and the depth of that. Bloody hell, that's a good one.

51:12I've had three amazing wines today. The three combined are less than 100 euros. These are the most underrated wines on earth. Old school Albarinos from Spain. So that was, the one I had was Doferrillo. fairly you know it's um well known as a kind of old school producer love um there's a whole bunch of them really good we've had the corponette gramona have a cheaper version called imperial imperial fucking incredible wine cost nothing i mean just nothing you can drink like a prince here eat like a king and it costs you nothing Even when you get it transported to the Cayman Islands or the US, these are not expensive wines.

52:09And you can drink like a billionaire. Literally, honestly, with Vigno Tondonia Gran Reserva, you're drinking like billionaires who can afford to buy vintage Burgundies, you know, 30-year-old Burgundies that cost$20 ,000 a bottle. And you're buying them for$200,$300 for 1980. It's extraordinary. Right. Okay. Global M2, then, now, same. Bitcoin, then, now, same. When banana, same. Keeps showing. The banana, we started in the banana in September last year. We've given the phase of the banana, but nobody listens because they want to cherry pick everything on Twitter. It's very frustrating. I'm trying to help everybody.

52:58And yes, most tokens will go up, will come into the alt season in a sec. The most copied chart on the planet, this is what you all want to see. This is not updated from today's price action. So basically, we started up ticking. So when you say when, Bernan, it's like, how much more can I help you? We told you here that this was the low. We said here it was going to correct. We said here this was the low. We doubled up everything, all our positions, because it's the same for NASDAQ. We bought call options in Robinhood, Tesla, Coinbase. We added Sui. We added everything. And that was obviously all in Real Vision Pro.

53:39If you don't sign up for that, I can't help you. We do give it all to you. But on Twitter, I try and give as much away as possible to help as many people. Here it is. Is this going to be perfect, or is it going to do this, and then this, and then this, and then this? Yes, it'll do the latter. like it did this almost perfect and this wasn't perfect and then this that's is it going up to the right yes is it likely to fall apart with a 90 correlation going on no so it'll be okay will it deviate will it fail over time yes will we give you other things that matter yes this matters the most right now next snack longanita small like It's not like chorizo, which has got some of the paprika in.

54:26This is like just a sausage. Like a salami, but super dry. So it's crunchy and has this ultra umami. And again, this is not the processed shit you buy in a normal supermarket. This is handmade stuff. Costs nothing everywhere here in Spain. Italy, France, amazing at this stuff as well. anyway a little sip of wine, we'll keep moving forward we've got a lot to get through I'm sorry but you've got nothing else to do you Americans are basically waiting for your long weekend anyway everyone in Europe is on my time zone so they're getting shit faced, good for you the Aussies, they're suffering this time they can't drink breakfast beers so they're fast asleep so they'll watch it in the morning that's really good food and drink make everybody happy it's one of these societal lubricants that helps society function we share things together it loosens it up you don't need to drink obviously nothing to do with drinking I'm sure if you prefer shrooms or you prefer wheat I don't care the point being these are communal things that we enjoy together and I enjoy doing it with you guys Because I know, because I mean, I get stopped all around the world.

55:52People actually really enjoy this stuff. They want the chart alpha and all of that. There'll be a bunch of comments. It's like, stop doing this. I just want the alpha. This is actually the real alpha. I keep saying this. Right, next. Global M2 year on year versus Bitcoin. Goes back a long period of time. It's stupid correlated. Global M2 is ripping higher. Bitcoin should rip higher. Can't help me more than that. Okay. That was me hitting on my vape. It's the first time so far. Imagine an hour without nicotine. V-shaped recovery. Yeah, now you can see me, but V-shaped recovery and equities continues.

56:31We called this. We said, hey, it looks just like 1998. I was at Goldman in 1998. I lived and breathed this thing. It fucking ripped higher forever and went into a huge bubble. We're not saying, oh, my God, it's going to be a bubble. What we're saying is correlations, 97%. It's like one of those events that doesn't matter to the stock market that drove the stock market lower. And now we're going to recover. And we should broadly follow this pattern for a while. And then we won't. And then we won't. But it will follow the M2 pattern. And then we won't. But it will follow global total liquidity ongoing.

57:11The debasement of currency is the driver of everything. You've got to understand that. So there we go. People are still short, bloody short markets. I don't get it. Everyone's so cynical. It's like this is the easiest trade in the world. This whole thing, this whole setup from the low has been literally one of the easiest trades in the world. You'll say, oh, my God, it's not easy. Can't you see? Because you've chosen the wrong things. It's been an easy trade. Basically, you could have owned Solana and a few tech stocks, which was basically my thesis. You've been fine. Now, not saying I'm infallible.

57:45I will fuck it up. I still own Church of the Smoking Chickenfish, which I still like. I haven't sold any of it. And maybe I'm wrong, maybe I'm right. I don't care. It's a small allocation because I wanted fun and stuff. But overall, people are still cynical about what is going on because they're confusing their own political views, everything else, with what the driver is. 97 % of the NASDAQ returns are all debasement of currency. 97%. That's the R squared. And yet you can posture all day about all your bullshit and you're wrong. 97 % is that. And so then it becomes down to which stock do you choose to best represent that to outperform it?

58:36And that's when we use relative charts and stuff like that. Okay. business conditions starting to grow. Everyone got bearish because of Trump and then come back and it's all okay, which we said it would be. And then blah, blah, blah, more. It's all okay. The Citibank Economic Surprises Index basically follows the dollar because that's where sales ebb and flow. That's the flow of the global economy. And the dollar weakened massively. And hey, what? economies are going to do better, which is why Scott Bessert wants a week a dollar. So does Donald Trump. So does everybody, because it works. It drives the global economy, because 87 % of the world traders in dollars.

59:24Okay, I said, I said, the business cycle, super important. My whole framework built from the business cycle and now actually more macro longer term, but it gives you where you are. It's very important. OK, the ISM has been for an extended period of time below 50, up and down. It's been dragging higher, but it's been slow. It's been slow because the dollar was high and rates have been high. Rates will come lower because Trump will force them lower. And the dollar is already falling fast. I mean, I think the DXY gets to somewhere between 92 and 90. Let's see. But we're starting to see the S &P version of the ISM starting to break higher.

1:00:22And we'll see the ISM come up. Okay, great. So the business cycle goes up. Here's the amalgamation of the two. Business cycle is slowly rising. Why does it matter? Because the business cycle is how you all feel, how your businesses feel. It's driven by the business cycle. Am I creating excess earnings? Am I growing? Most of the economy is not growing. Some parts are growing. GDP is growing from different reasons. But really, the average median business in America, median person's income, ain't changing right now. If you're running a restaurant or a shop or a services business, is it really happening for you right now?

1:01:07No. Is it okay? Just about. But your interest rates are high. So when interest rates come down, what we'll find is economic activity picks up. And then suddenly speculative activity picks up. And that changes the structure of market. It has always been so. The history of markets. I've got ISM and the Treasury survey before that going back to about 1880. It's always been the same. Market returns are driven by the business cycle. So as the business cycle goes up, market returns go up. The thing that also leads it is financial conditions. This is a mixture between the dollar rates and commodities.

1:01:49and financial conditions have been going up, which is meaning for us easing. And that means ISM, it leads ISM by nine months. ISM is going to go higher sharply. Financial conditions, because of the dollar, the dollar's starting to break down again. That will lead financial conditions to the next leg. Okay, this is interesting stuff because it also drives crypto and tells us how long the cycle's going to last. I'm not going to give away everything here, but we'll talk about some of that. ISM and crypto. Okay, so this confusing chart, you're spinning, getting your head around this. What the hell's going on here?

1:02:27There's a bunch of colors and things going up and down. Basically, here is every time the ISM peaks in purple. Okay, but what's all this shit? This is the ISM in this teal color. So it peaked. What happens to the market? Well, when the ISM peaks, eventually the recovery is when it comes across 50. When it comes across 50 confirmed, that's when markets get big moves. We haven't got there yet. So the big move part, the global business cycle, and there's going to be a bunch of you going, well, it's never going to happen. Trump tariffs. Can't you see there's wars everywhere? it will happen because all the forward-looking indicators, the financial conditions that actually drive things as opposed to your opinion, which drives nothing at all, will happen.

1:03:28That cheese is good. Sorry, all of this is good. So I keep doing the, fuck me, that's good. Rolling of eyes.

1:03:36This is so good.

1:03:43Generally, no not generally definitely the business cycle will play out definitely assets will get affected by it definitely your pocket will be affected by it and it will definitely play out in the end that's all there is to say in the end the rest of it is your issue with time horizon or my issue with time horizon or whatever it is everything else is here it's all in play It's exactly as it should be. And, okay, when banana, the most ridiculous, stupid, what's the word, dimwitted ninny question of all time is when banana. And I've showed you this chart for two fucking years, but you don't pay attention.

1:04:34Altcoins are driven by SM because it's driven by the risk curve, which means when people have more earnings, they go further out of the risk curve, and then altcoins go. ISM is going higher. Altcoins, a percentage of Bitcoin total market cap will go higher. Bitcoin dominance will go lower. And that will be altcoin season. All the people saying there's going to be an altcoin season don't fucking understand. Will there be an altcoin season in your token? No. Well, there might be. You can lower that entire risk by saying, could I own Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana? Will that work? Of course it will.

1:05:14And then you hear, oh, Ethereum is a piece of shit. Fucking morons. I've told you the financial system is going to be built on it. It'll do fine. Will it be the best performing token? I don't know. I don't care. It's okay. Ethereum's amazing. Solana, incredible. Sui, amazing. What's, you know, don't worry about it. These great layer ones, they'll do fine. Well, well, we'll come to some others on a set. So we're still going and we still haven't got to questions. Questions only, Real Vision platform. Sign up, realvision.com forward slash join. Join for free. Ask me questions. Try not to insult me too much, but I don't mind.

1:05:58I build gentle ribbing. I don't know what to do with this wine thing, by the way. I honestly don't. I'm sitting, it's like having three really hot women next to me, and they're all kind of winking at me. I don't know what to do.

1:06:15That never happens to me, by the way, but I pretend it does, right? Bottle of wine you pay for, it's different. Anyway, moving swiftly on. Bitcoin, here's the chart. This is cup and handle, back down, corrected it. Okay, great. That's the weekly chart. when i get to the daily charts the exactly the same pattern but in short time horizons let's go back this bit up test but down up down blah blah blah up down oh weird okay it's the same what happens over time it goes up go back to this chart because now you're like you've forgotten this because you guys are nervous nellies who don't really understand you're just like scared you're gonna lose money and ral's wrong oh oh yeah that says the same thing it kind of goes up and then it sideways and then it goes up battery's gonna run out okay let's try and figure this out without fucking everything up because i'm on my laptop obviously because i'm in spain i don't quite know what i'm doing how am i going to do this i don't know sorry just whistle amongst yourselves have a drink do whatever you want because i don't know what the hell i'm doing here does that work okay yeah we're charging we're in business okay so there's the m2 chart okay remember that chart because you don't you forget everything go oh my god we're all gonna die you do every fucking time.

1:07:52And I just post this chart up and for some reason you miss a post on X and you don't come on the Real Vision platform because you haven't subscribed to Real Vision Alpha where you can go and look at the charts at any time in your leisure as opposed to missing your Twitter feed. But no, you don't want to do that because you know better. So there was a chart, there was the up, a little bit of down, a little bit of up. Are we breaking hard today? Probably. ethereum great chart it's an amazing chart so we've done like one two three four top test here two we probably come up here pull back break that'll be the true kind of la la season when that happens um and that is coming solana beautiful cup and handle pan we've seen these patterns before Once that breaks, Solana goes to new all-time highs, keeps going higher, whole market goes with it.

1:08:53Excellent. SUI, amazing. These wedges, they come down, they break higher, they come down, ready to break higher. Beautiful chart. Beautiful chart. There's the SUI long-term chart. Great. Come down in the middle of the wedge, very common pattern, break higher, all happening. SUI, Solana. Solana. For those of you who don't understand these relative charts, this is SUI outperforming Solana over time. Is it underperforming Solana right now, or is it consolidating? It's consolidating. Why? Because it's been in this sideways range. Is this range an interesting pattern? Yes, it's probably a wedge. Julian drew this.

1:09:37I wouldn't use that spike. I'll probably join it here. We're probably closer. And in which case, the probability is that it starts breaking higher against SUI. why because it has a lower free flow is early in their adoption curve nothing bad about solana fucking love solana they're amazing tolly does an amazing job the whole community is amazing it should be going to outperform probably because it's earlier stage not that complicated it's no dissing i'm not insulting your grandmother um dogecoin amazing chart i mean this thing is amazing. Alt season, corrective. Alt season, corrective. Alt season, okay.

1:10:18Let's see what happens. Well, it's missing a bit of this, but basically, from the start of 2014, when this came out, it's outperformed Bitcoin, but it does it in the spurt. Will it do it again? Maybe. I don't know. But I know that a normie comes on. I want to buy some crypto. Looks at Bitcoin, goes, I'm not going to pay$110 ,000 for this, looks down the list on CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko, Coinbase, Kraken, Robinhood, and goes, Doge is cheap. I've heard about that before. Doesn't Elon like Doge? XRP is cheap. We've heard about XRP. There's tons of YouTube videos, and my uncle owns it. What about it?

1:11:03Great. I have no issue. There's XRP. Equally fucking amazing chart. I'd be staggered if XRP does not break higher massively. And I know that a bunch of XRP people see, see Ralph how he hated us. It's all about the price in the end. Unless you're actually building something on the technology, we at Real Vision are building on SUI. We're building tokenized trade ideas to get to crowdsourced asset management where you can become your own head fund manager because your ideas, your trades are confirmed on chain. We can see them. People can follow you. You can get credentialization, and then maybe you can become a hedge fund manager.

1:11:45We can tokenize the whole community in terms of the best ideas. There's so much we're going to be built on Sui. We're going to use digital identity. I don't know why I started that, but listen, we're doing some cool shit. The whole rebuild of the platform that's coming in September, month for the first beta testers is going to be amazing. It's built around communities, ideas, connections. And then we'll start layering in the Web3 stuff using Sui, but that doesn't mean we're Sui maximalists because we have NFTs on Ethereum, NFTs in Solana. We have, and we care about all the ecosystem. We cover everything.

1:12:31We don't have a bias, but there's a lot of cool shit to come on Real Vision. Another reason, realvision.com forward slash join, because you'll miss out if you don't. And it's very cool as shit. Okay, XRP. XRP, one month. I mean, look at these. Just beautiful charts. Total market cap of crypto, excluding Bitcoin and ETH. Beautiful correction, beautiful. For some reason, this makes you all feel like shit. It doesn't to me. I like it because we've got the next phase to come. Everyone's like, we don't deserve it. We won't get it. People don't think they're going to get nice things. You'll be fine.

1:13:12Okay. Draws on vape. Next one. Total market cap and excluding top five. This is real odds. Stunning chart. I mean, I don't know in what world this is not going to play out. We already think the cycle extends. to 2026, at least to the first quarter. Let's see what the dollar does. We'll probably push it out for another quarter. Things will go higher than you expect. That's my general consensus. We're coming dominant, rising wedge. I don't like when Julian, he put these together. I don't like it when he uses these spike charts. I would have just drawn it through that. Either way, I said here that I think it's put in the high.

1:13:58It then sneaks in a new high. I still think it's topping, and I think Bitcoin dominance collapses. When it collapses, it drives altcoin season. I know nobody believes in altcoin season, but over time, Bitcoin is less dominant. Why? Because people find use cases for other tokens over time, interestingly enough. This is before smart contracts were really a big thing. Smart contracts become a big thing. The market has a bear market. Smart contracts become a more important part of the ecosystem, as do new tokens such as Solana. and then we have the bear market where people just palm money into this.

1:14:33It's all driven by the business cycle. Right, I'm just choosing which one of my favourite children to... I think I'm going to go back to the carver because it does mean less damage because if not, I'm going to be miserably hungover tomorrow because I'm half the way through that one. I've only had a glass of red, a couple of glasses of white. It kind of goes down fast. Right. And I've still got to do the questions on the Real Vision platform, realvision.com forward slash join, you lazy motherfuckers, and then I'll answer questions there. It's going to run. This is going to be the longest one ever because I can.

1:15:08Right. When banana, the most annoying question in the world because we've given you, let's go back again just to reiterate you dimwitted ninnies. Dimwitted ninnies. Here's the chart. went banana. We said it was here. We said phase one, phase one correction, phase two, we're in the middle of it because you've had this sideways move and your alts have gone down like this and your alts are not at all-time highs and Bitcoin is. You're losing your shit. I can't help you. You've got to understand the structure of markets. You've got to be able to take the volatility. And please, your asset allocation does matter and you've probably got it wrong.

1:15:51and I've tried to help you with that too. So, right, I'm trying to find which chart I'm on. When banana. Okay, altcoin season. Percentage of assets, excluding stablecoins, outperforming Bitcoin over a 90-day period. This is why you all feel like shit and you're getting salty as hell online with me because when banana, your tokens aren't going up, Bitcoin maximists are like, yeah, I'm in the middle of the bananas there, everything's fine, but you're not. So what this says is when it gets to these levels, it's oversold. And every banana zone that's happened to 2019, 2021, 2022, 23, are all driven when it gets oversold.

1:16:32So here we are with the M2 chart, with this chart, with the ISM. That's what a macro framework is and how it will help you. At Global Macro Investor, we have easily the deepest framework with the most number of variables of anybody else in the world on this nexus between macro and crypto. That's not bragging. It's just like, I won't be right all the time, but I'm fucking trying my best for you guys. Honestly, I get it. We all want to succeed. I'm trying to help you. And you just need to shut the fuck up and listen. not just listen to me because I know you'd be wrong, but just stop being reactionary.

1:17:26Be absorber of knowledge. Be a builder of your own framework. Be humble. And also be accepting that not everybody's going to be right. There is nobody who's going to predict the exact price. There will be somebody, but it won't be the person you're following. And people ask me, what is my projection? What is my prediction? Because as if that's going to help you, it's not. Let's say up a lot. Do I think Bitcoin 3X is from here? Yes, almost without question. But for some reason, everybody gets messed up in this. Wait till the signals from the macro tell you, and then we'll see where the price is.

1:18:15Yes, a global macro investor and pro macro. We do share some of that. GMI more so because people are more responsible with price targets. And they're not targets. They're like, here's our contextualized understanding of where we think this thing could go. And here's three bands based on standard deviations. That's how I kind of think about the world. Okay, next chart. Bitcoin cycle top finder. There are people like, oh, it's hit its cycle top. just block them because they're fucking morons um bitcoin cycles these are the cycles i keep explaining this to you when banana zone told it when it started started over here we had the correction zone we explained the correction zone the next thing we're in is this phase phase two of the banana zone before the correction we're not there yet we had a bit of sideways for a couple of weeks and you guys lose your minds.

1:19:11I can't help you. Remember this chart. I keep bringing this chart up because you forget it. Immediately you look away and go, well, somebody else said the market's going to get down into tops. And somebody else said, my altcoins aren't going to. Just look at the chart. Look at the chart. Look at the chart. Look at the business cycle chart. Look at the dollar. Generally, it gives you all you need to know. and everything else is fucking noise. And you get so emotional about the noise. I get it. I get emotional too. My P &L goes up and down. I don't look at my P &L. I have no idea what it is. Zero idea.

1:19:53Literally zero. I haven't checked my P &L in four months, so I have no idea what it is. But I get bored when the market goes sideways. Engagement goes down. People want this fun. Then it goes down a bit more, and then people start getting really angry and salty and went banana and this and this and this, that's kind of a signal like we're towards the end of the thing. Don't let your emotions rule it. These things take time. The people who get really rich in crypto are in the space for a long time. They're not trading it. And you think that some bloke on Twitter who trades stuff is going to answer your questions.

1:20:29No. Time answers your questions. If you just did nothing, but you can't. I've told you this a hundred times, and then you come back and go, well, I went down 80%, blah, blah, blah. Just, you need time. Compound returns take time. Did Warren Buffett trade his portfolio? No. I'm not calling myself Warren Buffett, even though I actually don't think he's, he was as good as people say, but that's a different question. All I'm saying is, chill the fuck out. Final chart of the day. Oh shit, that's the wrong chart. That's the chart. That's the crypto dig butts floor price. That wasn't meant to be there.

1:21:08But if you want to buy an NFT, buy a crypto dick butt. There's about 5 ,600 of them, 200 of them. These are fucking OG things. They're cute as shit. Everybody needs to own a dick butt. If you don't, you're just not relevant. In fact, at some point, maybe I'll just have a, unless you have a crypto dick butt, you can't ask me a question. Not that I'm that important either. Maybe you're just banned generally from anything. Maybe you can't buy Rioja without a crypto dick butt. Maybe that's a good idea, actually. Maybe that's a good idea. I'll think about that. I'll talk to the Rioja producers because everyone needs to own a dick butt because they're just law and legend.

1:21:49If it's not a dick butt, a me bit. These are not expensive. Get involved in crypto art. I spend most of my life there. It's a much happier, exciting, interesting world. They're based in ETH, so you get a multiplier on ETH. and it can be as simple as a crypto dick, but you can lord it with a punk, or you can buy art. You have no comprehension how big a trade this is. Generally, I keep explaining it to people. It's hard to grasp. I get it. This is the entry point. Do we need to do? There may be other things. Maybe it's crypto dick butts, rec guys, these kind of things, they have cultural lore. They're priced in ETH.

1:22:37They will probably outperform ETH, and ETH will probably go up a lot. And you will get to meet nice people doing different things. It's a really inspiring space. I've met some of the most amazing people in that space. So think about digital art as part of your allocation. It'll make a big difference to you, both financially, intellectually, and personally. Okay, that's the end of that. Let me look at my list of shit I need to do, apart from reiterating dim-witted nervous ninnies, presentations. Oh, you fuckers need to be paying. I'm reading my notes. You fuckers need to be paying for this to unfuck your future.

1:23:18That is the idea behind the Real Vision Alpha. Go to realvision.com forward slash join. There's a whole bunch of you there who come in every time I speak, don't do other stuff on the platform. just we're there to help we've got so much it's like me and julian shooting the shit going through every chart in the world but you can't be bothered there's there's like julian and i putting out macro investing tool and we're it's not about us there's andreas there's a whole community there's everything going on the trade ideas the community comes up but you can't be bothered oh it seems a expensive for me?

1:23:55Really? Really? Okay. That's enough of my disapproving eyes. Okay. We're going to move across to the platform. We're an hour and a half in. Anybody who comes across the platform, realvision.com, join, I will start answering questions. This is going to be the longest Drinks With Raul ever. I understand that. Hopefully I haven't bored you. I've tried to give you some alpha. Everything's fine. Everything's according to plan. It's summer. We're in Spain. We're having a fuck ton of good times. Come and join us on Real Vision. Let's have some fun with some questions. Ciao. If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership.

1:24:44Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.

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