🔴 Will Crypto Recover Ever Again? Drinks With Raoul (Round 15)

29:28So it will bounce. And then crypto. Here's Bitcoin. three month on three month, just reflects these financial conditions and the economic surprises. So the economy is weaker, financial conditions were strong in the past, and Bitcoin has already priced in the entire thing. So the damage has been done. Okay, what's the good news in all of this? The good news is the financial conditions index, which is the dollar rates and oil, is rebounding like crazy. Strong conditions lay ahead. The economic surprises index is not finished going down yet. It will go down a bit further. Maybe the Fed will be able to cut in April or March.

30:19No, it's March now. April or May, whatever it is. Maybe they'll be able to sneak in a couple of cuts. If we see the Truflation Index, inflation has been falling off a cliff. I think the Fed get cover to cut, which is what they want, because they need to roll the debt. The everything code, if you haven't seen it, A, ask the Rowlbot about it, B, watch the videos on it. They need to get rates down so they can roll the debt at roughly around trend rate of GDP growth. So they need to get interest rates down to 3 % or lower. Guess what? The Fed today, where do they think interest rates will be? 3%. Where do they think economic growth will be?

30:59Around 3%. I've been saying this forever. This is the entire game. That's what they're trying to do. Economics prices should be weaker. Then we're going to rebound on the back end. The next part of the year is going to be very strong. 2017, those of you remember, was an amazing year. And I think we'll see something very similar. Bitcoin priced in those financial conditions, which were leading by three months, Bitcoin's already priced it all in. So it's the worst news is in. My guess, probably up only. The chart you all care about that we came up with and every fucker in the world has copied, Global M2, 10-week lead versus Bitcoin.

31:41It's worked perfectly. I didn't expect it to be worked as perfectly, but it is. But basically, we're turning the corner and we should start to see higher prices and the higher prices will come quick and the higher prices should take us all the way back to the highs pretty soon not soon like in a week or two but soon like in a couple of months so i think what you've all had to go through is a boring sideways consolidation pattern with a slight down bias your alts have been nuked but nothing out of the ordinary. We saw this in 2017. We've seen it now. And we are very, very close to the turnaround.

32:27So patience is all I keep asking for. Stop being so dramatic. It's funny. It's actually boring. It's like you do not get 150 % returns a year from an asset without drawdowns. You have to get used to this. You have to stop worrying at this point in the cycle. We peaked in the cycle earlier in 2021, and we peaked because the business cycle had peaked. This time, the IFM is still low. And so we barely started the cycle. so i know we all say it's so early nothing's really happened yet it hasn't we had phase one of the banana zone which was the breakout of that consolidation range this is the consolidation phase two then we'll get into the much more important banana zone phase two it is all coming okay let's go back and look at how this happened in 2017 so i'm speaking to in a condescending voice right now.

33:34I don't know why. Just because I'm so bored of the online, like blah, blah, blah. Let me try and stop that. Let me readjust myself.

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34:43I'm not trying to be condescending. I sound a bit of a dick, but... Okay. Can you hear that crunch?

34:54Fucking amazing. um the 2017 cycle repeating that's the dollar this time around last summer i'm this time around the dollar's even weaker which is i mean it will bounce at some point it will bounce for a month or two and that will continue lower but it's showing how fast financial conditions are weak weakening even versus them when we look at global m2 last time around versus global m2 today it's the same bloody chart. I mean, stunning. It's stunning. And I think GlobalM2 is going to actually outperform this time around, which should mean crypto has a good bid. It doesn't mean crypto will do as well as last time because it was earlier phase.

35:37It was less participants, early phase adoption, high performance, but I expect it to be good. GlobalM2 breaking out, these beautiful wedge patterns that happen every time you're in crypto spring and summer, and then crypto fall starts, you start breaking out. And then as it breaks out, the markets break out. With that false thing in COVID, but the breakout in M2, higher. Broke out in M2, higher. Break out in M2, higher. Get the picture? Higher. Bitcoin in the business cycle. This is what has helped me through my entire time I've invested in Bitcoin is this log chart. I showed it all the way through in 2020, all the way through.

36:22It works beautifully. We are currently kind of like this 15, 16, 17 cycle. We're still kind of a little bit subdued, but in a beautiful uptrend. Bitcoin's on what, 600 % from its low. And then what we will get is as we hook into the next phase of the banana zone, we will start hooking higher into this. Now, I know many of you say it's diminishing returns. It won't do this. It'll be, I don't give a fuck right now. Right now, just higher. We'll figure out the rest later. But right now, higher. ISM. ISM, the business cycle. The business cycle drives crypto. The business cycle implies Bitcoin-implied pricing is low versus where the ISM is right now.

37:08but when we start looking at this, this is going to get interesting for you. These are not projections. You morons who want to come troll me on X and saying you told me this and I demand my money back. I'm not interested in you. I'm trying to give you contextualization. If we get to the one standard deviation level by the end of 2025, we're about 210 ,000. If we get to two standard deviations, It's 400, and it's about 800 ,000 if we get to two standard deviations. Now, we've hit two standard deviations every other time. Will we hit it this time around? I doubt it, but it's possible, right? What's the probabilities?

37:48I don't know. The probability of 210 ,000, I would say, is like 70%. 412 ,000 is like 40%, 35%, 800 ,000, 20%, 15%. But that's kind of the rough idea. And again, these are not predictions, they're contextualization. But when we look at the ISM pricing, ISM we know is bottoming. It is just coming up from 50. And if you see the ISM in black here, it's cyclical. That's why it's called the business cycle. And it tends to get to somewhere between 55 and 60 something. So at this point, we've got Trump tax cuts, we've got tariffs, we've got a confusing picture. But at worst, it should get to about 56.

38:4057.6, well, that will put Bitcoin up here. And that will put the ISM, if we got a full cycle, it would put it at 63. So those go back here. So only to get an ISM of. Fifty seven point six, which would be very subdued, it would give us four and twelve thousand. If we were to see an ISM hit. Let's go back to this one. Hit sixty three, which is not uncommon. We get to eight hundred thousand. OK, so you can now see the strength of the business cycle drives it. The strength of the business cycle has been driven always by the financial conditions beforehand. So when we look at the financial conditions, policy, liquidity, leading indicators, it's already saying that the ISM should get to 56.2.

39:40Let's go back to this. 56.2. Well, that was this one, roughly. That's saying, well, financial conditions alone tell us we should be getting Bitcoin over, let's say, 300 ,000. Okay, now, is that my prediction? No, it's not a prediction. It's like a contextualization of understanding of how this could play out. Bitcoin ISM. So you can see this, the ISM above 50, which is where we've just started here. That is when we get the acceleration phase, the banana zone. Where's my fucking banana zone? You guys are morons. You're like, we're worried about the next two weeks when what we're talking about is the process over a year.

40:27So the banana zone, we start the banana zone, we're in the corrective part of the banana zone, the phase one correction, then we go to the next bit. But this whole ISM above 50, a growing business cycle, is what drives it. Then when ISM peaks is when crypto prices peak. We are nowhere near peaking. so we barely started. So you all need to relax. Again, the ISM leads altcoin season. Altcoin season is never going to happen again. All of these pundits on Twitter, it's only because of the ETF. We're never going to see altcoin season again. It's all utter fucking bullshit. It will happen. Okay. I'm just enjoying these olives.

41:15Amazing. Okay. So, zooming out, which is what I keep trying to tell you guys to do. I'm going to have a little bit of vapour as well. It's the balance of alcohol and nicotine, you know. It just keeps you on your edge perfectly.

41:35Okay.

41:39Bitcoin. We're all going to die. Was the same we're all going to die that we had in September. the same all going to die we had in April, the same all going to die we had last January. It was the same we're all going to die in August last in 2023. We're all going to die. We were definitely going to die in June 2023. And we were definitely going to die in March 2023. Do you get the picture yet? You don't remember any of those corrections. You probably remember that miserable one between March and September. But again, none of us died. If you didn't have leverage didn't fuck this up don't fuck this up make sure you go to the merch store and buy your merch because a it's cool as shit the banana zone sweatshirts are amazing um the don't fuck this up stuff is there as a reminder for you not to fuck this up it is the biggest macro opportunity of all time it is the greatest gift i do this for fun but really it's to engage you all because it is so fucking important to me to bring as many people along for the ride because it is all driven by naysaying.

42:44It can't happen. It's not true. It's all fake. And yet more and more people make money over time by learning the principles of don't fuck this up. It's not like I've got some miracle here. It's like the market goes up. Your job is not to get caught out in any of the down moves by using leverage or FOMOing or be 100 % in memes. I've told you this. Like all the memes have gone to zero right now. Many will recover from the ashes. I'm hoping our Lord and Savior, Lord Fishnou, will recover from the ashes. Or maybe his chicken's cooked. We don't know, but it's all fun to play out. But really, your most important bags, the large tokens, you don't do anything.

43:27You just sit and wait for it to play out. Because this is what happened in 2017. it played out again. There we had one, two, three, four, five, 30 % corrections. In fact, many of them were almost 40%. I don't remember this. Well, I do remember the one in June, July, because I sold out at about 2 ,000 in that one. But generally speaking, you don't remember this stuff. Because in the end, the gains compound. So it's really important to zoom out and realize volatility is part of the story. It is how you get the impressive gains. You can't have them without the volatility. Volatility is what keeps leverage in check, keeps the market healthy.

44:17So it's a very healthy market right now. When we go back to 2017, January, like now, came out of the gate, collapsed. Why? Because financial conditions had tightened. And then it went up, recorrected, and didn't get going until mid-March. Where are we now? Mid-March. Guess what's likely to happen? Number go up. What happened that time? It fucking went up. Big time. It went up 23x. It will not do that again this time. But the point being, it's all to play for. And we will get massive volatility in the middle, and you won't believe it, and you think it's going to be topping and every fin twit moron will be telling you it's topping.

45:01It won't be. We've got plenty to play for. Okay, still more to go through. I'm trying to give you as much alpha as possible. And again, I will answer your questions on the Real Vision platform. You will not get any questions answered on X or on YouTube. It'll go blank screen and you'll feel slightly embarrassed that you're still there. So realvision.com forward slash join. I'll answer your questions. We're going to be running late because there's a shit ton to get through. And I'm trying to give you as much confidence, as much alpha to help as many of you as possible. There's the Bitcoin chart.

45:33Does it look scary? No. Bitcoin, 14-day RSI, double bottom oversold. Okay, every time that happens, goes up. Sometimes it has this sideways consolidation period, then goes up. Will we have more sideways consolidation? This chart's maybe out of date for a week. For sure. Will it go up? For sure. Are we anywhere near a top? Here's our GMI Cycle Finder top that we use for exponential age asset management. XPAM, my digital asset fund management business, a fund of crypto hedge funds. We use this as one of the key inputs into what we're doing and how we allocate to funds. We're fucking nowhere near.

46:12NASDAQ, let's talk about equities. You guys are nervous Nellies. This is like one of the most bearish ever readings in the history of the NASDAQ. Oh, my God, Trump and Scott Besson and tariffs, and they're all going to make us die. And we it's you guys stop. You are all way too bearish. The percentage of stocks trading with an RSI of less than 30 is almost record territory. And guess what? Global M2, because the everything code drives everything, drives NASDAQ too. And you guys trying to sell the NASDAQ here are selling something that is perfectly priced for liquidity. And we've had these liquidity air pockets in the past.

47:10Liquidity air pocket is when liquidity is not rising, NASDAQ overshoots, it recorrects, comes back down to trend, and then follows liquidity. Remember, NASDAQ has a 97.5 % correlation to global total liquidity, which is the index that we use on a broader basis. 97.5%. Bitcoin has an 89 % correlation with global liquidity. Global liquidity, I wrote about this in GMI, and there's probably not much time to talk about it now, but is my preferred measure these days. If we go back to the early phase of the everything code, the balance sheet was the main thing. After the balance sheet use, we started using FedNet liquidity.

48:03Once people understood that the balance sheet was printing of money and debasement, they started moving to FedNet liquidity. Now, all of FinSWIT understands FedNet liquidity, as does CryptoTwitter. And so they're looking at the TGA and the reverse repo and all of this stuff. Meanwhile, the game has moved. The game is always moving, my friends. The game has moved to total liquidity. in the US and everywhere around the world. Total liquidity includes M2. It includes net liquidity at every single major economy level, net liquidity, plus M2. And M2's largest driver is the dollar. That is what they're now doing, which means that they're pushing the monetary policy onto the balance sheet of the banks themselves.

48:59So total global liquidity is the big one. M2, very useful number because it's a large part of it. Okay. NASDAQ and financial conditions, way overshot. Financial conditions are going higher with a six-month lead. NASDAQ, undershot. I would not be surprised if it bounces. NASDAQ, all of you, there's so many people on Twitter who just hate technology. They hate the fact that the number goes up over the time. They hate the fact that there's a bunch of large companies who make money. They want it to be about small companies. They want it to be about value investing. It ain't so. This is the largest observable trend of our lifetimes, is the log regression channel in the NASDAQ.

49:48Get over it. We're here to make money. not fucking be a justice warrior. And here we are in the sort of correction phase that we get often in the NASDAQ to drive the type of returns that we get. That's 17%, 18 % a year returns from the NASDAQ, and you get larger returns. Other thing, we just had a massive move in the dollar. Bitcoin versus the dollar. Every time you have a massive move, Bitcoin goes sharply higher. Okay, so I think you're getting the point. So the common refrain I get on X is, oh, look, Raoul, he's the banana boy. I don't know if you can see that. It's a banana reclining on the cue ball.

50:43It's reclining on the cue ball. Kind of cute.

50:49so people are like has the banana zone been cancelled is Raoul a moron yes I am an utter moron I know we'll take that all day however the banana zone is a multi-phase affair and a multi-month and over a year affair and those of you who expect number go up all the time are only remembering what the banana zone is at certain periods of time. Your number's not going up because you own a bunch of shit alts and you're, like, complaining. Okay, I get it. Let's go through this again for you morons out there. The banana zone starts. This is the banana zone in the box. We then have a corrective period.

51:36Look at this. Corrective period, corrective period, corrective period, corrective period. Does this look any different than this one? Uh, no. And then what happens? Banana zone phase two. Banana zone phase two. Banana zone phase two. Then we have another corrective zone. And you're all going to be throwing your toys out the plan. It's all over. It's just like 2021 again. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And guess what? We all correct. And it will go higher again. That's how the banana zone works. and you guys have to learn patience. I know I say this all the time. Okay, we're now 50 minutes in and I'm still not answering questions, but I will go to the Real Vision platform and answer some proper questions to add some proper value to you guys.

52:23Again, I'm going to, in fact, pour myself a glass of wine in a sec because I'm almost finishing my Negroni and that is your excuse. I'm going to give you Tesla because it's nice and contentious and I've got some points to prove here. and you will go across to realvision.com forward slash join and join because you owe it to me because I've just given you more information than you've ever been given by hanging around fin to it I'm trying my fucking best for you guys I've spent 30 years of my career learning to build this stuff I'm not trying to be perfect or right but I am trying to get you and me and all of us together to unfuck our futures.

53:11And if that matters to you, realvision.com forward slash join, I'll answer your questions over there. And I'm going to go to the fridge and get a glass of Albarino I prepared earlier.

53:28So there's 32 ,000 of you watching between YouTube and Twitter. I'm not interested in you guys being here where you're watching, I want you to go to realvision.com or slash join and do that for me. 32 ,000 of you lazy fuckers. You've probably even got a drink. You're probably thinking, this is the best. I love these drinks with Raoul. They're so amusing. And you haven't joined Real Vision to do me the honor. Do me the honor. We're at really hell for this. Right, I'm going to get my glass of wine. So realvision.com or slash join.

54:18even i'm not brave enough to drink two negronis i can um but i've got dinner tonight and i can't do that um a dinner with a girlfriend tonight and there's no way i can drink two negronis and then hold an intelligent conversation. So what we've got now is Albarino. You know, I'm big into this Albarino phase. I mean, generally as a white wine drinker, I'm a white Burgundy drinker. I've got into Albarino and from Riach Bayash in Spain. In fact, let's ask... No, I can't. I'm sharing this screen. But I love Albarino. It's fresh, clean, lovely. Okay, Tesla. I love all of the drama. when elon was considered a environmentalist and anti-oil the right-wing people would deface teslas i have two teslas i have a model x plaid with the gullwing doors fucking amazing car i've some amazing cars in my life that is one of the best cars i've ever owned um maybe even the best car I've ever owned.

55:30And I've had Ferrari 355 GTSs, 911 Carrera, Turbo Cabriolet, Turbo S Cabriolets. I've had them all. That Tesla Model X plaid is amazing. I love the minimalism and stuff. Anyway, so the right wing people would deface the cars. And then what happened is Elon then did the whole government thing and the whole, you know, that. And then suddenly now the left wing are defacing the cars. Are you guys fucking morons? It's a car. He's an entrepreneur. You might not like Elon, but he's pretty good at doing stuff. And it's so ridiculous that both the left and the right have always hated him at some point.

56:14And people are like, well, Tesla stock. I mean, we saw the Tim Walts thing today. It's embarrassing. Well, Elon's stock's getting hit because people don't like Elon. They're shunning his cars, blah, blah, blah, narrative, narrative, narrative. Reality, Global M2. Oh, guess what? It's driven by liquidity. Tesla, one of the best performing stocks in the world over the last few years, decades, has been driven by liquidity. But it's also driven by a number of other factors, but liquidity and liquidity is bottomed. So And also Tesla's driven by the business cycle. Who would have thought that you sell less cars when the business cycle is weak or when the business cycle gets stronger, you sell more cars.

57:01Tesla year on year is driven by the business cycle. I mean, God, people, the over analysis of stuff. And guess what? Retail sales, new car dealers, ISM correlated. So as ISM picks up, people sell more cars. As the ISM picks up, the business cycle is stronger. People have more earnings, they buy more cars. Right now, we're not in the car buying cycle. But going forwards, our leading indicator says that the ISM is going up. And therefore, if the ISM is going up, and we go back here, car sales are going to go be growing at like 20 % a year. But we're not there yet. Car sales are currently growing at 0 % a year or just above.

57:44And they'll be going at about 20 % a year. So what you've got is a discounted pricing mechanism based on the liquidity that gives you a once in a business cycle opportunity to accumulate Tesla if you like that. Tesla, like all of these tech stocks, is in the log regression channel. It is one standard deviation over sold. It is likely to get to one standard deviation overbought and maybe two standard deviations overbought if the market's feeling frothy. Where does that get to? I don't know, but definitely north of 1 ,000. Feels like a 5X to me. That's not financial advice. But I'm just trying to show you that the business cycle trumps all.

58:27Things like the macro investing tool within Real Vision Plus is all of this stuff. This is what Julian Battelle and myself try and do for you, is to stop the fucking bullshit, the narrative arc, and is to give you the actual tools to understand. That's what Real Vision Pro gives you, and you get to ask us those questions, whether it's myself, Julian, Andreas Steno, who's also part of Pro, or Jamie Cootes in Real Vision Pro Crypto. We're there to answer your questions and help you. Yes, I do this and answer some questions on the platform, but it's not the level that we do there. Real Vision Plus, that gives you these charts.

59:13It's like a life hack. It stops you being so stressed. The average response to Julian putting these things out every week is, thank you. I can just zoom out and realize that everything's going to be okay. At some point, it won't be okay. And we will tell you that too. We're not perma bulls. We're business cycle analysts. We understand liquidity better than anybody else. We understand the business cycle. We understand how these things come together. It does not make us infallible, but we get the odds pretty much in our favor. Right. So I've given you as much alpha. There is no fucking recession coming.

59:53There is no, oh my God, the tariffs, they're going to change everything. There's no Tesla. Nobody's going to buy a Tesla again. There's no any of this. It's all business cycle framework. You will all be okay. Just don't do dumb shit. So stopping sharing this. And for me, it's time for the rest of your necks and the rest of your YouTube to bid you farewell, goodnight, and we'll see you over at Real Vision, realvision.com forward slash join.

1:00:32So I'm going to wait for people to come across.

1:00:44Okay, so I am going to try and find questions there.

1:00:54I'm still live on Real Vision. I'm having some vape to catch up with myself and I'm going to try and answer questions. The normal chat box is not there on the screen right now. I don't think I'm speaking to Paul while I'm doing this because now on Real Vision we can just kind of talk normally and whatever. I don't know. Are you guys seeing the actual chat window? I'm I'm going to refresh my window because now we're all together on Real Vision. La-dee-da, drinks with Raoul, 178 questions there. No summary. Questions coming up. Okay. Okay. Now, remember that... Sorry, I'm just trying to expand my window here.

1:01:46Okay. remember that you can ask the Raoul bot any questions particularly if you're a Real Vision Plus member so I will do that for some of this to show but let's um let's start with questions I'm going to go in the comment section first I mean there's so many questions I'll do the best I can uh Raoul what's the most difficult thing you've ever had to overcome this is from Jay Shan from a fan from the Midlands I was born in the Midlands we don't make that too common um most difficult thing you've ever had to overcome

1:02:21I've had to come over a lot of difficulties many of you have had much harder difficulties I mean I'm fucking barely got out with a degree that was any value from any university and graduating through recession and management talked my way into a job I tried really hard I building real vision is one of the hardest things I've ever done the number of times we almost went bust um that was really hard um i've done difficult things like climbing mountains i've done i've done lots of difficult things in my life um but overcome them is all about mindset about thinking ahead into to what could be and not seeing what is today.

1:03:10That, I think, for me, is my largest hack, is using mindset of what it feels like to succeed and then leaning into that. And it's difficult to understand, but manifesting of destiny, I've talked about this a lot, it's a really, really important concept. It will change your life. Joshua Ellis. um hi ral i got a nice glass of pilastro poured out penny for your thoughts on icp don't worry i won't get on an x if it goes to zero i don't really have a view on icp um and now we're on the platform it's much easier than on youtube i don't really have a view um i just don't see the adoption being large enough by people using it um even though i thought the tech was interesting when it came out.

1:03:56I don't have anything against it. I don't have anything positive. Jay Powell says, we've seen some increased tightness in money markets, basically suggesting, hinting at future balance sheet growth QE. Thinking about QE as a red herring because we didn't have QE in 2017. In fact, the balance sheet was shrinking and the federal raising rates. It was what the Chinese were doing. I think they've said that they're going to stop QT, basically. That's good enough for now.

1:04:28So I'm now chain vaping. It's a bad addiction, but it's better than smoking. I've smoked cigarettes my whole life as well. And my mother is 81 years old. I got her to quit cigarettes at 78, and now she chain vapes like me. She's Northern European Dutch. It's hard as hell.

1:04:50Okay, questions about... I mean, I've been spanned by this SPX 6900 meme community. I've got no interest. Michael M. Raoul, how's your view changing about the end of the cycle as you see the current state? Can you walk us through your updated view? I think you've seen it. My updated view is, considering the ISM is only just crossing 50 and it's going to take probably 12 months to peak, My guess is the cycle may well not peak until 2026 Q1. Jennifer, thank you again, Raoul. Thank you, Jennifer. You can spell my name right next time, Jennifer, if you really mean it. I'm joking. Well, I'm not joking.

1:05:32You can spell my name right. Michael from the Sunshine Coast, Australia. Nice. Have you tried screwball peanut butter whiskey? Do yourself a favour and get some. Michael, you're banned from the platform. Thank you. Carl, just joined. watching life. Here's on fact my future. Have the M2 on my three-day and one-week charts gold. I'm not interested in your three-day charts. Carl, you're doing it all wrong. Just honestly, calm down. It's all okay. Lars, Raoul, are you ever the optimist? If you look at your analysis critically, what do you think is the major risk to your forecast not to play out in the way you're predicting other than World War COVID?

1:06:09Concerns from recession at all? I've spent 35 years being a macro investor. Macro investors are by definition fucking cynical people. I have been so cynical my entire investing career. And I learned that the structural shift of the economy towards technology and network adoption models was so strong and so powerful that I could no longer be a cynic, particularly when I understood the everything code. So therefore, I now think of everything is a correction within a bull market until shown otherwise. I don't look at black swans. I know when they came, I made a lot of money out of COVID, made a lot of money out of the financial crisis, the European crisis.

1:06:59So I'm trying to be an optimist because it fucking works. It has made, Global Macro Investor has been the best performing research service in all recorded history. and that's a fact and up until 2020 I was a cynic and did well but when I became an optimist I did really well doesn't mean I won't make some mistakes won't mean I won't have a bad year but Real Vision Pro Macro has done incredibly well from this kind of stuff so being an optimist it is a lot fucking easier and Bella, I joined the website long ago, but I was watching on YouTube and got the hint of being lazy. So here I am. Bella, thank you, my love.

1:07:48I really appreciate it. There's a lot here on the platform. Please make use of it. Look at the trade ideas that the members are generating. All the alphas here. It's much easier than on X when you don't know who they are. On Real Vision, you get to see who they are, what their best ideas are, all sorts of stuff. In fact, let me show you. I'm going to share something with you. I'm going to share my screen. Sorry, Peter, I didn't tell you this, but I'm just going to do it because I like to go off-piece. So I'm going to share my screen right now where I'm looking at and asking your questions. And I'm going to go across to the leaderboard.

1:08:30And we're going to see some of these ideas. But Joe Bland, Joe with his RGTI idea is up 17x. But let's look at Joe. Who is Joe? so here's joe's idea he writes them up beautifully but i want to know more about joe himself so i'm going to click on joe well joe is a plus member he's got 27 ideas outstanding and many of them are really good joe is very good at doing this doesn't mean he gets them all right Nobody does. But on average, some of his big trades are really big trades. And you can see who's following him. He's got 320 people following his ideas. He's not following anybody, not even me, because my ideas are shit.

1:09:25And he's not written any research notes, but he's a killer with trade ideas. Let's look at Sim with his XRP idea. I don't know if Sim's got any other ideas out there. No, he's got one idea. He's got 13 followers. But we can learn more. We can find out about who he is, excellence consulting. So we can find out a lot of our members, follow them, and follow their ideas. So if you are on the platform, this is the kind of stuff you should be doing. And we're only going to lean into this more. It's only going to get better. Right, so back to the Q &A, because I'm now obviously wildly over time. But because it's you guys, we're on the platform, we're drinking wine, we're vaping.

1:10:10Sorry.

1:10:14Alexander Dommershausen. Question, why not use leverage? Even LTV, thanks for unfucking my future. I just don't like it, Alexander. And I used to run a hedge fund with plenty of leverage. I just, it's so volatile. I know you can make more money. I just don't have the low time horizon view. So I just much like to leave it easier.

1:10:46Jonas Grunder, what's your take on Walrus? Walrus is the distributed data storage layer that SUI are launching in the next week or two. From my understanding, it is incredibly important because it is chain agnostic, decentralized, distributed storage layer that is programmable, and it enables things that have never been done before, and we so desperately need this kind of stuff. I have a feeling Walrus would be big, not financial advice. and obviously I'm on the foundation of SUI but the Walrus Foundation is separate I'm not part of that I just have a feeling it's big and it's going to create usage for SUI as well Rebrand Fokker described the day my friend my day has been I'm over in Little Cayman as you can tell so it has been relatively peaceful I still have the remnants of the flu or COVID bit of whatever the hell I've had.

1:11:50So it's been a bit slow. My brain wasn't working. Now I'm feeling a bit better. I went for a nice walk this morning in nature on the road, not on the beach. And it's stunning because there's birds, there's nobody here. There's no cars, there's no nothing. Walk on the road, clear your head, think straight. You can have good conversations with the trees when you go around. The trees listen and send the birds. so I did that I did get a little bit about half an hour in the sun because I wasn't feeling very well vitamin D is the fucking miracle cure of everything if there is a god it is the sun so I got a bit of sun I had a short nap I didn't have a super busy day about four or five calls which is unusual for me but I've just got back so Lauren my amazing assistant has kept it relatively clear for me so that's my day so far and then figuring out what the hell to talk to you guys about.

1:12:49Bernardo Reyes, what's the best Pink Floyd album and why is it Piper at the Gates of Dawn? It's not for me, actually. I'm a bit more traditionalist. I like Wish You Were Here.

1:13:07Just even that song alone is one of the greatest songs.

1:13:13um elliot hey ral i know you took your dino thoughts back on xrp running towards november moves love your work we've got any new thoughts and movements here no it needs to break this range right because it looked like it could be a head and shoulders top whatever i think it all goes higher um grace hey uh ral where do you see mean coins heading the next few months grace from leads i don't know we're going to it's going to be a phoenix from the ashes idea um so we will have to see what rises from the ashes i think many will okay i'm going to flip across to the questions there's so many questions coming in uh ral can you recommend a carver based in the usa say, you know what?

1:14:01Let's ask Raoul. Let's do this.

1:14:08I don't know if this is going to work, but we're going to try.

1:14:20Let's do this. Handsome, handsome guy. Hey there, I'm Raoul Pal. How can I help? Hey, what Kava is available in the USA that's good?

1:14:34You're talking about Kava, right? If you mean Kava bikes or maybe the Kava electric vehicles, I'd need a bit more clarity. But if it's the EVs, those three wheels... No, no, no, no, no. It's Kava, the sparkling wine.

1:14:50Ah, I've got it now. Kava, the sparkling wine. Look, Kava is a fantastic choice. especially if you're in the US and looking for something that's both high quality and affordable. It's made in the same traditional method as champagne, which means it goes through that second fermentation in the bottle to create the bubbles. That gives it a depth and complexity that you just don't get with something like Prosecco, which is made in tanks. Now, here's the thing about cava. It's crisp, clean, and usually has this lovely balance of acidity and fruit. And the alcohol content is always around 11.5 % to 12%, so it's light enough to enjoy without knocking you out.

1:15:27I've done blind tastings with friends, and honestly, some cavers have held their own against much pricier champagnes. It's just that good. If you're looking for recommendations, brands like Frexanet and Cordonu are widely available in the US and offer solid options. But if you can find something like Gramana or Recorado, those are on another level more artisanal with a bit more complexity perfect for a celebration or just a tuesday night honestly so are you thinking of grabbing a bottle for a special occasion or just exploring and that's all i need for now thank you gramona or uh recudias i think it's recudias um always good but any carver is good it's all good um brian durkin any thoughts on near don't really have any thoughts sorry uh jeremy laughed my ass off uh good i don't know what about but good for that um daniel horse is that your real home in the back can i prove it to daniel i think i've found it before this is my home uh this is my home in little cayman but i worked my fucking balls off to build uh about 11 years ago um and it is still the high point of my life it's like one of the proudest things I've ever had.

1:16:42Damage, would cycles now be over that Bitcoin is being adopted by governments? No. This question comes up a lot. And the reason why no is we're a$3 trillion asset. We're going to 100 trillion. You're going to need governments, sovereign wealth funds, pension plans, everybody to drive as it goes forwards. They're just a percentage of the market share before it used to be retail. When there was two people involved in crypto, So one person would have been 50 % of the market. Eventually, over time, you need these large participants to drive the market forward. So it does not change the market. Paul Hicks, signed up from Wales.

1:17:16Any updates on SUI? Thank you, Paul, for signing up from Wales. I know it's late for you. I really appreciate you being here. It's probably raining in Wales because it always fucking rains in Wales. Updates on SUI? No, I'm still very bullish. My majority of my portfolio is in SUI. Again, the caveat, as you all know, because we're on Real Vision now and not on X or anything else, is that I'm on the foundation. But it's actually a large majority of my portfolio from my liquid tokens, not the stuff I was granted. Victor, what's your number one takeaway from the Abundance 360 event? Acceleration. It's just all accelerating.

1:17:55Nobody has any idea how fast this is accelerating. Also, the other thing that I think is that people are starting to realize that AI is conscious. That's another bigger topic. Diane Ryan Day, what's the current status? The air fryer embargo in your home. We don't do air fryers. We're not interested in stupid shit. We cook properly because we try to be civilized. Air fryers is just basically like fucking nuggets of cooking techniques. Craig Swanson, thank you for your insight. Enjoyed the chat tonight, just joined. Thank you, Craig. Appreciate you joining. Hopefully look around the platform, see the community, see what's going on and realize that you've made a very good choice.

1:18:41What's your opinion about the all-time high for Solana? Yes, it will go to an all-time high. And yes, it'll be much higher. Justin Russo, Spriggen, Netherlands. You said M2 is increasing when Bitcoin and price and altcoins will follow. So some say end of April, what's your opinion? You've seen my charts. I think it's coming. There is a lead time of 10 weeks. Raoul, thoughts on DEEP. DEEP is the liquidity protocol for SUI. If SUI has more action and more liquidity, DEEP will outperform SUI. But it is smaller, more speculative. So I have a position in DEEP. I think it should outperform. But I would not put large amounts in it.

1:19:27because of the don't fuck this up thesis. Russell Crowe, Raoul, they're talking about bringing down the 10-year. Without seismic correction, recession, how's that possible? Why are you so confident that recession won't happen? I think I've hopefully shown you business cycle analysis. If you haven't joined Real Vision Plus and got them MIT, you'll see there's a thousand reasons why there is no recession. They will bring down the 10-year because inflation is falling, core inflation is falling. Growth is falling and they're going to be spending less because of Doge and that puts less supply issue.

1:20:04So I believe that it's coming down. Cliff Oberg. Hey, hey, what's up, Raul? You're the man. Thank you, Cliff. You're the man too. Raul, what's your footy team still celebrating Newcastle's win? 2035 is winning. I'm not a big. This is Chris Watson. I'm not a big. Sorry, I'm should be shot staring. I'm not a big football fanatic, but when I was a kid, I lived in Liverpool and we were split between blue and red and I was red, so I was Liverpool and I've always remained Liverpool. But I also support Real Madrid because I lived in Spain for a long time.

1:20:42Alexei Babex. Raul, what are your thoughts on alts outside of ETH Bitcoin, strays like Adder or Elgorand or EGLD. I had interesting ideas that caught up in the whirlwind of the crypto projects. There are various points in the cycle when those will do really well. But I still prefer to own the majors and the major alts.

1:21:10It's all fucking noise, kids. Raoul Pal, I need this on a hat to buy, please. Yes, Jamie. It's all fucking noise, kids. Needs to be merch. Paul Guerra. It's all fucking noise, kids. Needs to be merch. At some point, it won't be noise later in the cycle. But again, I'm not actually worried about cycles. I actually prefer writing them out than selling out. But that's a whole different point. We will talk about lifestyle chips when it happens. We're nowhere near that because the market's been too weak right now. Tony Woodhams. So I'm trying to get through as many questions as possible. It's not easy because there are thousands of you.

1:21:55Tony, Raoul, as the dollar weakens against the pound, do I keep my profits in stable coins until the dollar is stronger than cash into GBP?

1:22:08It depends whether you're going to get out of the crypto economy or not. I mean, the dollar's good enough. What's the difference going to be? 10 % or 20 % And, you know, at worst, well, we fucking deal with that in crypto on a daily basis. So I don't really know. Dollar should be weaker. So therefore, well, there's no pound stablecoin, so I can't really help.

1:22:35Bogdan Balan, Raul, what are your thoughts on Tau? I don't really have thoughts on Tau. Barry Silbert, I'm going to interview, who is deep into Tau. Barry's one of the OGOGs I'll report back I found it confusing and complicated, doesn't mean that makes it good or bad Nathaniel Bocco, old season in May, Nathaniel I would give probability wise decently Nicholas Robertson, just us gents let's go to the banana zone Nicholas, we'll bring the ladies along too and we will go to the banana zone Ray Lara Cuenta You know, not La Cuenta, which is just the bill. I know you like Solara and Sui. Any positives on Aptos or movement?

1:23:21Bonus question. Will tongue get real traction this cycle, or is it Telegram-driven optimism?

1:23:30Aptos. Well, Mo left Aptos, and I liked Mo. I don't know whether they're going to get there, actually. the SUI team have obviously been outperforming them obviously it's come from the same root stock as SUI although they re-beat the whole language I hope they do well I hope everybody does well Ton, Manny Stoltz who's now the CEO of the Ton Foundation is an old friend of mine I'm going to be interviewing him so we can talk about Ton and Telegram obviously ton is interesting because if they get this right if they can get telegram users to use ton it's big um because there's so many users let's see um i'm not sure but we're going to talk to many about it um round where do you think carbon's headed higher finally i'm sorry it's been a shit trade idea because I found out too late how it lags the business cycle, but it will go high.

1:24:39It will go to new highs. I'm sorry it's been such a crap idea. Jake Bryan, Raoul, my favorite wines have strong minerality. Any suggestions? I want to taste rocks. Well, let's go back to Ask Raoul. dun dun dun dun dun I mean Raoul answers macro questions too obviously but I also trained on wine so let's see how it does let's get Raoul up the old handsome wise devil let's talk to him because his voice is amazing I think he's an incredibly handsome man I'll have a call with him. Hey there, I'm Raoul Pal. How can I help? I'm interested in white wines with a strong minerality. What would you recommend?

1:25:42I think too many of you are using them.

1:25:50ah white wines with strong minerality now you're speaking my language look if you're after that crisp mineral driven profile white burgundy is the absolute pinnacle i mean we're talking chablis especially a premier crew like montay de tonnerre or vayens these wines are all about that flinty chalky minerality thanks to the limestone rich soils in the region it's like tasting the terroir itself, right? And if you're feeling indulgent, something like a Pouligny Montrachet or Chassagne Montrachet will blow your mind. These wines are elegant, complex, and just scream sophistication. But hey, if you want to explore Budon Burgundy, Alvarino from Rias Baisas in northern Spain is another fantastic option.

1:26:31It's got this saline edge, almost like a sea breeze in a glass, which pairs beautifully with seafood. And for something a bit off the beaten path, Istrian Malvizija from Croatia is a hidden gem. It's got this deep minerality, honeysuckle aromas, and a kind of understated complexity that keeps you coming back for more. So what's the occasion? Are you pairing this with food or is it just for sipping and savouring? That's all I needed for now, but thank you. Always say thank you to the AI because there are overlords. Okay, so you got that. You got it, nailed it. Rui Ferreira, Raoul, just joined off your ultimation on YouTube.

1:27:12Now I hope to see you some Portuguese wines over here. The Albarino, the Vino Verde, the wines of the Douro Valley, all fantastic. Portuguese wine is great, underrated. So you keep going, Rui. um which is stokes what do you think the chances are um of the uk and europe outperforming other markets in next year reason for asking there's been a lot of comment on this recently from commentators blah blah listen when the dollar weakens other markets outperform the us outside of the technology stocks so well half decent charts um

1:27:54um, Raul, is that a Daytona on the risk or a Amiga Speedy? It's a Daytona. Um, I have a gold Daytona with a green face. I have the white face Daytona. Great story about this. Um, my wife or ex-wife, um, bought me this. Yes. And that's a long story for another day. Um, bought this, which was a baby blue faced with the chocolate ceramic dial watch for me for my 50th it was fake and i went to get it fixed and they said we'll not fix it so i had to get a change back to this i didn't know that i thought i had a lucky steel version not the platinum version um but i've got the the gold with the green face which is amazing i want to get the the platinum with the baby blue and the chocolate face, a real one back.

1:28:46I've got this. I've got the Rolex Sea-Dweller that I bought back in 1996 as a reward for a bonus that I got. I've got a Amiga Seamaster with an orange leather strap, crocodile skin strap. I've got the Cartier Santos de Cartier with the curved face. I have a few others. I love watches but I'm not a fanatic I like to wear them I'm part of it okay we are way over time hey Raoul from Presensor Kurek Raoul I want to thank you for one month access to Real Vision Pro access spent hours almost every day reading reports and I think it was a life changing experience now I'm not trying to fuck this up Real Vision Pro is really special and I'm really pleased you saw what it was like.

1:29:41We put a lot of fucking effort into that. Between myself and Julian, Andreas and Mikkel and his team, we do a lot to really try and help you and also answer your questions and give you access to us. That's the key thing with this. Bill Foster, we got here at the end of the Negroni and started the wine. What are the snacks today? Dude, we talked about the snacks. You need to go back and watch it. El Tamutis. The greatest crunchy snack on earth. Campesinos from Spain. And some olives. So, James Page. Hey, Ra, loving Rioja. Thanks for the tip. Coin and or hood? Yes. Both. Coin and hood. Nadia, tell us more about sui.

1:30:36No. um i've said enough going higher over time um okay i'm starting to um flag deep looks good here ellen banko how did you get a house like that built on little caiman so the story of this house is i had two dreams in my life one was the mediterranean and every day i was going to work at goldman or natwest i would dream of the mediterranean my girlfriend at university and for a few years afterwards and her mom lived in majorca and we go out there in holidays and i've talked about this before i would see this spanish life and i want this it kind of appealed to my half dutch half indian kind of the mix between the two cultures and so I focused on that, I want to get some of my train and eventually I was having dinner with my dad back in 1999 and we were having a conversation and I said I really, really want to buy a house in Spain he's like a friend of mine selling a house and I thought nothing of it, dad's you know and he backs through from a dinner party a picture of this six bedroom house on a hill in Spain in a town I didn't know near the coast and it wasn't the prettiest house in the world, but it was pretty amazing.

1:32:03And I'm like, yeah, that's amazing, Dad, but, you know, how much is it? He's like,£150 ,000. I'm like, okay, fine, I'll fly out next week, and I bought it. And I ended up buying another house in Spain, a much bigger house and whatever. But I bought that house, and I had that house for a while and loved it and had a lot of fun. But I had another dream, which was a tropical beach. I had dived around the world with sharks and tropical reefs and all sorts of stuff. And I was shark diving in the Galapagos and there was a bunch of people on the boat and I was telling this story about the Mediterranean and I said, look, I also want to build a house on a tropical beach.

1:32:38I love turquoise water and reefs and all of that. And they said, come to the Cayman Islands. They were from the Cayman Islands. I'm like, Grand Cayman, it's too suburban for me. They're not interested. They're like, try Little Cayman. So I'm like, okay, Little Cayman. So I went out there and stayed at a place called the Southern Cross Club, which are mates of mine now-ends. And I fell in love. It's like this most remote, spectacular, natural, incredible place. And I found a real estate agent. Day two, I found a piece of land, about 300-foot of beachfront, and started to build a house. So then people on the island said, hey go and see the people who built the other fancy another fancy house or a fancy house on the island mine didn't exist and so i went to see them english guy american wife and i said listen you know i'm buying a piece of land and i want to build a yeah quite a nice house and they were you're fucking kidding me we went through such pain every single thing has to be dragged on a tug that drags a rusty iron barge that goes to a small concrete dock and every single thing has to be disgorged from there there's no workers on the island really because there's 150 people if they're bringing your own workers the whole thing is a shit show this is the worst thing you're ever going to do and i was living in spain oh fuck i'm going to give it a go and i got introduced to a friend who was a constructor um and he did it i can't believe it without the pain i thought it was going to be twice the price or twice the length of time which is normal um when you're building something and it was neither it was three months over and on budget and um i won the the governor's award for architectural design and um i would never have done it again because it's so hard to do here so anyway i built a beautiful house here um i was very lucky um and i i can't believe i did it even now today i can't believe i went through that it's like it was very brave um

1:34:56gary shields uh did you rave in the 90s like me ral and i still do an occasion listen i've spent time in the dj booth in patra and ibiza i've been to acid house raves i've been to the whole thing. It wasn't my biggest thing, but I've been there, done it, blah, blah, blah. Emma Mildred, LOL, the trees do listen indeed. Emma, it's the biggest hack in life when you realize that everything else is alive too and everything is conscious and the trees are conscious and the trees listen. So thank you, Emma. I appreciate that. Okay, last question. I've been an hour and a half. Ted, have you tried cinnamon vape?

1:35:33So good, so good. No, not actually. Sounds good. Okay, final question

1:35:45um flipped across the other side

1:35:51lots of suey questions i think it's going up yes it should do well um rembrandt what's your first and greatest realization about yourself that you've that you've harnessed yeah great question rembrandt i was at university i was kind of failing because I discovered girls and pubs and nightclubs and all of this stuff. And I moved in with my girlfriend and I needed to pull my shit together because I was going to get through with a pass in the UK system. There's a pass, there's a two, two, a third, a two, one, a two, two, a two, one and a first. I'm like, how the hell am I going to get through this?

1:36:32Uh, cause I was basically, I almost got thrown out for two years running and I discovered a hack which was pretend I was somebody else so I had a the first time I managed to try this it was economic geography some sort of I can't remember urban planning or whatever I can't remember what it was and I had to present and I went with a mate of mine and we said let's just pretend we're at Harvard how do we do it And we just went with that confidence and that knowledge base and we got a first. And I did that for everything I've done. I've just pretended that I was successful or pretended that I knew what it felt like to succeed.

1:37:18And this is this manifesting of destiny. So thank you for the question. I do that a lot. Okay, gang, I am exhausted now. I've been speaking for an hour and 40 minutes. I've tried to give you as much as I can. I love you all. and thank you for those of you who just joined Real Vision. I'll see you next time. Join over 7 ,000 attendees on June 18th to 19th at Super AI Singapore, Asia's largest AI event. East will meet West as industry leaders converge for two unparalleled days exploring the exponential AI age. Join us to unveil the future of LLMs, the intersection of AI and crypto, robotics, drones, space tech, the societal and economic impact of generative AI, and much more.

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