#1018 - Real Vision Festival of Learning Review | With Ash Bennington & Maggie Lake

0:00It's crypto summer, which means it's festival season. At Real Vision, we're getting ready for the next festival of learning in partnership with Kraken. It's taking place April 18 and 19. And the theme is don't F up alts, memes and NFTs. Yep, there's a big world of digital assets beyond Bitcoin and ETH with lots of opportunity and lots of risk. We'll be bringing a ton of timely and actionable knowledge from speakers, including Raul Pal, Sergio Silva, Kevin Kelly, OSF and more. It's completely free to attend. Just go to realvision.com slash festivaloflearning to get the details and save your seat.

0:40We'll see you there.

0:50Welcome to Real Vision Daily Briefing. It's Thursday, April 18, 2024. We're joined by Maggie Lake. You're not Jamie Coots. No, I'm not. But I happen to be in front of my computer. So guess what? I win the prize. We got you here. We should probably say we're having a little bit of technical difficulties right now with Jamie. He may join the show already in progress. We'll have to see. If not, Maggie Lake, we're doing a festival of learning right now. We are. But let's rein in expectations. I am not going to be able to pontificate about the world of crypto the way Jamie does. We lean on him for that.

1:27But I'm happy I was able to pop in with you because we're doing a festival of learning on everything in the crypto world, not just Bitcoin and ETH, right? All the other issues. And I know a lot of folks watching have been in Solana, done really well in that. And I know we had some great stuff with Sergio Silva, who is just amazing. But before we jump into that, I want to just kind of point out that this is a really interesting time, isn't it, Ash? because we have so much going on on the macro front. And in so many of the conversations, we started out the week talking about geopolitics, a lot of concern about the direction of interest rates and the bond market.

2:09One of the big risks people see is that these yields keep going higher. We're kind of, everyone's pulling back those Fed expectations. But the question seems to be, where do you look? Where's the safe haven? Is it gold? Is it Bitcoin? Is this finally the moment? But prices there have been a little volatile. So that intersection between macro and crypto is super interesting right now. Well, it sure is. And that's incredibly well said. There's a lot going on right now in the space. I went out last night and did a dinner with three crypto guys who are both, all three of them, I should say, are former macro guys.

2:44And it was really interesting. These are really, really smart individuals. And no one really seemed to be willing to take a call about the directionality of where markets were headed. We kind of asked this question. So what do you guys think? It really feels like we're in this weird kind of period here of figuring out where things are going to land. Obviously, we've got geopolitical instability, some challenges right now, obviously, in the Middle East that are always in the headlines. Moreover, we should say we've got an election in November. That always creates a great deal of strum and drang here in the United States.

3:13And all eyes, obviously, on the Fed, expectations being reined in by Jay Powell in terms of the probability of rate cuts and the magnitude of the rate cuts for 2024. Maggie, how do you weigh all of this? I know you mentioned interest rates. I'm looking right now on my screen at the two-year Treasury yield, which is pinned right now just 499 basis points, just beneath the 5 % mark. Obviously, a pretty steep rise here, almost 100 basis points, and call it since the beginning of the year. precisely what you were alluding to. How do you contextualize all this? Yeah. So let's talk about, we know everyone's time crunched, right?

3:50And we're all sort of struggling to keep up. Let's just highlight a couple of the things that were said this week for people who may not be watching every single piece of programming that we put out. Marco Papic called the US election. We started talking about Israel and Iran and the implications and what happens from here, which is still an open question, by the way. If we're heading into the weekend like that, that's going to be a concern. But Marco Pavic said it's the U.S. election that is a macro black hole. And he has a lot of concerns about a bond riot, about the sort of, you know, the U.S.

4:25administration and the Fed losing control of the bond market. We haven't seen, used to be called bond vigilantes. Christopher is in the chat. I know you'll remember that. And as well, people have been around for a long time, but we haven't seen that. There are a lot of people investing in these markets who don't remember that that's possible and that the Fed doesn't control everything. And if bond traders lose their confidence about the direction of inflation or policy, that they'll take matters into their own hand and demand to be compensated for the risks they're taking on. So that's a real concern, and it's coming up in more of my conversations.

5:02Talked to Greg Weldon yesterday, who is really concerned about currencies and the pressure the US dollar is putting on currencies. You know, Ash, on the platform, we have a lot of conversations about the dollar wrecking ball. Just stick that in the AI tool for those of you who are new to the platform, and you'll pull up a whole bunch of shows that talk about that. And so he's watching a whole host of Asian currencies that are getting to really, really critical levels and was talking to me about it feeling like the Plaza Accord days. And so, again, go back to your history books. This is the kind of stuff, Ash, that we haven't been talking about in a long time.

5:43Doesn't mean it's going to happen. But the fact that people are bringing these things up concerns me. Let's talk a little bit about Plaza Accords to give some context. I think that happened back in 1980 at the Plaza Hotel, a few blocks in that direction for sitting. But the idea here was that the dollar strengthened very dramatically in a very short period of time, and it caused chaos in the rest of the world. Yeah, exactly. And there was an agreement about devaluing, right? I mean, this is some kind of coordinated action. So again, all the analysts who come on give, it's all about probabilities.

6:16No one has a crystal ball, but they're talking about trying to evaluate the probabilities they face, the risks that are out there. And so those are two big ones that came up. But we're going into earnings season. Banks so far, earnings were pretty good. The stocks have been selling off all week, but there's still an open question. If we get decent earnings, does that trump anything that we're seeing on the rate side? Can the economy still do well? Can the stock market do well if rates kind of stay here and don't go higher. If this is it and we've got decent profits coming through, can the tone change next week?

6:58And maybe. But I want to know, what are you hearing on the crypto side? We're going into the halving this weekend, the Bitcoin halving, which I know a lot of the crypto folks that I've been talking to say it's a sort of nothing burger. It's already priced in. But we have seen more price volatility. We saw some conjecture in Solana. Who did you talk to today? What's top of mind for everybody in that space? Well, I talked to Sergio Silva today about Solana. Oh, did you do the three ideas with him? I did. I did. And he was great, as always, talking about the Solana ecosystem, where he's most bullish right now, and some of the things that are being built on top of Solana, in addition to the underlying protocol itself, that he sees as levered bets on the Solana trade.

7:43But I want to touch on Bitcoin for a second, because obviously this halving or halvening, depending on how you want to pronounce it, is usually a very big deal in the space. But I think you're right, Maggie. The consensus opinion is that the upward price action has already been priced in, that we saw that pulled forward, I think, with the ETF. That seems to be what people in the space are talking about. But again, it's sort of the same point that I alluded to earlier, which is there is this sense that we're in this moment here where we really don't know what the next mega trend is going to be, where the directionality is going to head.

8:12It just seems as though it's just a moment, whether it's in traditional capital markets or in digital asset markets, where everybody just seems to be scratching their head, looking to find the next series of trends. As you point out, obviously, significant instability and open questions in the Middle East, a presidential election. I want to touch on something that you mentioned, though, which is bond vigilantes, because I wanted to talk a little bit about this for folks who don't know what that phrase means, maybe who aren't old enough to know what that phrase means. Bond vigilantes is this notion that bond investors are going to rebel against monetary policy, against fiscal policy, against financial repression, and massively repriced bonds to the downside, causing yields to dramatically spike, borrowing costs to rise, and raising the potential of this feedback loop in the bond markets.

8:54That's not something we've seen. By the way, bond vigilantes are most in eminence right now in 2024 for not showing up during the 2008 financial crisis for quantitative easing, for all the spectacularly innovative, if you want to be polite about it, monetary policy that we've seen since the 2008 era. That has not been a factor. Of course, there's no guarantee that they won't show up in the future, but that's been the history. Obviously, we've seen this relatively controlled rise in rates. Hey, everyone, we're going to take a quick break right now to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

9:33Getting a handle on crypto as an investor has never been more crucial. From the maturation of the market, institutional adoption and evolving regulation to the Bitcoin halving event, this year is set to be a thrilling one for digital assets. But it's still the Wild West with rugs, scams, and some shady players out there. There's a ton of opportunity, but a lot of vulnerability too. Real Vision can help you sift through the noise and provide you with a safe space to learn from the real experts in digital assets. Today, we're giving you access to a free Real Vision membership and access to a phenomenal video with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pell and Julian Biddle, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor.

10:22They dig into why macro is king, why crypto is macro, and how to think about your investment framework this year. To get free access, visit realvision.com forward slash crypto is macro. That's realvision.com forward slash crypto is macro.

11:00real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus 500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

11:34Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus.

11:44In the great financial crisis, even bond vigilantes don't want the wheels to come off the financial system, right? And that's what was happening at the time. Well, bond vigilantes most of all don't want the wheels to come off the phone. Yeah. So I think that that is like, you know, if things are chugging along normally and they're mad about inflation, then they send their message. By the way, I'm just looking in the chat. You guys are the best. Christopher said in 1980, TNC dubbed me king of the night. You should elaborate on that, Christopher. But he's been trading a long time, traded through a lot of the stuff that we're talking about.

12:15And it's really it's really useful to connect. And we're trying to bring people on the platform. For those of you who are watching on YouTube, get your Real Vision membership because we're trying to bring people on the platform who do understand, who were there, who saw what happened. And Ash, you haven't had a chance to see this yet, but I did a My Life in Four Trades with Dan Tapiero. And some of you may see Dan. He's very much in the digital asset world, started a new fund, 10T. And he calls that the biggest macro trade. So he's sort of very much thinking about it the same way Raul is. But Dan is the OG in macro trading, worked with all of the huge, giant whales that you read about and was in on so many of these epic trades.

13:06So think about the pound getting knocked out of the exchange rate mechanism, the Asian currency crisis. This was one of Dan's trades that we talked about, which was incredible. And then Greg rolls up and starts talking about the sort of setup looking so similar. So it's a really good time to go back and listen to those people who were trading at the time, what they saw, what they were paying attention to. And if you think it's above you, you don't have to feel that way. Dan was a history major. He was not a finance guy. In fact, he went and got his master's in history. And that ability to understand the world, obviously very smart guy, kind of connected to his love and desire to get into finance is what really helped him craft and get tasked with crafting some of these big, big macro trades.

13:57So it's so interesting. You don't have to be in finance to do this stuff. Boy, that's some old school stuff. And I think that's what we do here on Real Vision. One of the things we do best is the idea of unpacking some of these stories. 1997, Asian financial crisis, ERM, Black Wednesday, George Soros breaking the pound. Boy, it's great to have some of those folks who were here. I have to ask you this, since you did the four trades, my life in four trades with Dan. The trade that he mentioned to me that stuck out in my mind most when I did an RVIP with him a couple of months ago was a trade that he did not do, which was to buy into an investment into FTX.

14:31Yes, that's right. Did he tell that story? Yeah, he, no, he didn't. So somebody, with someone like Dan, he has done so many of these epic trades because he's been around for so long. And now also has a foot in, you know, we're talking about all the macro trades, but has, but has seen it all in this very early kind of birth of digital too. So he passed on a couple of really, not just FTX, he sidestepped, luckily for him, a couple of the problem spots. And he was talking about trying to make those distinctions and judgments about where to put your money in something that's so new. You know, you don't have the kind of track record that you might have.

15:18In fact, wait, someone just asked a question about your book, but I don't think it was that book because, of course, you wrote all about that. But yeah, he didn't like what he saw. He's very much a people person. He got burned by getting involved in a deal that a friend bought him in on and he got burned by it. And it wasn't just that it went south. It was, I don't want to, I want to choose my words carefully here. He thinks the CEO founder knew exactly what he was doing. And so he, after that, he's very, very wary. And so he makes a judgment, not just on the company and the prospects, but on the management.

15:54which again is old school, right? Peter Bookfar listens to all the company managements and really digs in the detail that not everybody does that homework, but it makes a big difference. And Dan does it even in the digital space. Yeah, it was really interesting to hear him talk about how essentially he just asked them for basic information they weren't able to provide. And he was like, what's going on with these guys? Like, I don't care what smart Silicon Valley VCs are saying and doing. If I can't get answers to the most basic questions, if they can't literally like email me the financials that I'm asking for, I'm investing in these guys.

16:24As you say, Maggie, totally old school. Yeah, right. And like so obvious, but whether you're talking about digital or you're talking about traditional, it happens all the time. We can come up with a million names, Bernie Madoff, all these people where enough people did it and it seems legit. By the way, it happens in sports too. I read a great thing about avalanches, but I'm going to go off topic. Steven in the chat said some newbies here, Steven Jennings. Hello, Steven. Some newbies here. Help tune in. And so we can get the don't fuck this up steps and execute ASAP. Appreciate some guidance. So obviously, Jamie's amazing on what he's doing in the crypto space.

17:04And he's not here. But we'll get him. We'll get him to roll up for the festival, hopefully, tomorrow. And we've got another great guest. Ash, you're catching up. I think it's Jeff. Jeff is here tomorrow, right, Brian? Jeff Snyder? No. Jeff Dorman. Jeff Dorman. Yes, that's going to be great. Yeah, he's amazing because a lot of these guys are traditional finance, but also now in crypto. So they're really, really great at this intersection. But Stephen, what I wanted to tell you is that the next installment of the Crypto Academy is coming. And I'm guessing you're leaning more on that side since you mentioned DFTU.

17:42And so there's going to be a lot of great stuff on there. And there's some really good, I don't actually know if I'm supposed to be talking about this, but there's a lot more product coming for people who are earlier on the journey. Let's just say that. Because some of the stuff we do is really directed at people who are pros. Like they're really deep in the space. They're working in the space. They've been investing in the space like Ash. But then for the rest of us, which I count myself, there's going to be a lot more content sort of geared toward those of us who are sort of bootstrapping it right now, which is really exciting.

18:15So watch out for that, Stephen. We'll have more detail soon. Talking about pros, Jeff Dorman is someone who's been on Real Vision Pro Crypto with me a number of times. He's always fantastic. And he provides, I think, just a really comprehensive thesis with the way he sees the world. He's very eloquent about expressing in narrative form the way that he actually thinks about the mechanics of markets. So it's going to be great to have them on RVDB tomorrow, where everyone can view it live on YouTube streaming. Oh, here's a question that I want to get to. This is what you were alluding to earlier, Maggie.

18:44This is from Paul English. Yes, I just saw that. I was just going to ask you this, Ash. Oh, this is great. What chapter in Crypto Crack Up did you enjoy writing the most? I think it was the chapter about where it seemed as though Binance was going to buy FTX. And there was this huge drama back and forth happening between CZ and SBF publicly on Twitter. I was actually stuck in Connecticut trying to get a passport so I could go down to the Cayman Islands for a Real Vision event. It was like chaos. We tell the whole story in the book. That one was a lot of fun to write. It involves Archer and me, of course, as our Real Vision producer, who produced a lot of the RV crypto content.

19:22We talk about that. Some great personal stories there, as well as the sort of just spectacularly bizarre spectacle of watching these two crypto billionaires go after each other on Twitter. So that was a fascinating one. And many, many more, I think, anecdotes just like that. I know people are going to look back and say, like, you just can't make this up. How did this happen? Which is so great and important because I know you guys flip that book while doing your full time job, we should add. but it's so good to get it all down in the moment because it seems so incredible. I think you doubt yourself after the fact, like, did this really happen?

19:56Totally. Also, Ash, can you please accept Matthew's LinkedIn invite? You've been ignoring it. I have a feeling Ash is bad at - No, I will accept, but I have to say LinkedIn is the place where I probably spend the least. I was just gonna say, I just said he's probably bad at admin. He's too busy writing another book. Hey, I wanna flag something that came up and I haven't even done it myself yet. I'm so guilty, but on the platform, do you guys all know that you can share notes now? So for those of you who are new or coming on and you want to kind of tap into the hive mind or for those of you who are so good, because we have some really - Tell people what notes are for people who are watching us on YouTube.

20:34On the, okay, on the platform, on the RV platform, Real Vision website, I should say, calling it platform, but website, you can use all these AI tools and take notes. And they were before like notes for yourself. But now, which is super helpful by the way, because when you're, especially if you want to follow up on something or you want to ask a question when we have someone coming on or you're not sure about something, or we get a lot of people who take notes because they're like, wait a minute, I just heard someone say this and someone else say this and they seem diametrically opposed to each other, which is by design because we try to get people with a wide range of opinions.

21:11That's where the magic happens, right? So before we had a great note-taking tool that you could use to make your notes and follow up on them or ask AI more questions about them. Now you can share them so that you are kind of feeding into the hive mind. So that's what that is. If you go around and play on it, play on the platform, you can probably figure it out. To be honest, I haven't tried it yet, but I will. I'm going to, because I have a lot of questions about the crypto festival of learning. Asking for a friend. Oh, wait, look, Brian's going to show us. There it is. Brian is really running the show here.

21:50He knows everything. He's all going to show. So that's where you could do that. So it's super exciting. And Raoul's been using it. So we always say, you can message us on the platform. But this is another way to, especially, I think, a lot of the people we have on, we We torture Raoul with this, but a lot of the people we have on have a different view from Raoul, right? And so we're always like, wait a minute. They're saying this, and they're worried about the world falling apart. Yeah, there you go. But Raoul said this. So this is just another way for the conversation to sort of continue. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners.

22:26We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

22:34yeah and let me just walk through what brian's doing right now because this is really interesting so every show on real vision has an embedded uh streaming transcript that actually syncs along with the video and what brian's doing is he's copying something from the transcript and i believe he's probably about to paste it into notes so the idea is if someone says something that you think is really interesting you want to come back to it later you can copy it you can paste it you can grab it and put it into notes by the way also we have two distinct different pieces of AI functionality, one that analyzes the video itself, and one that can give you more general AI information so that what you can do with that is if there's a concept that you need a little bit of background on, Raoul's mentioning, for example, financial repression, you can go and use AI to define that.

23:19You can embed all of it into notes, and then you can share it with other Real Vision users. There it is. There's a Real Vision bot, the finance bot and the Real vision bot. The finance bot is the general information AI, and the video bot is the AI that's specific to this particular video. Hey, Brian, can you type in, summarize this video for me, please, just to show folks what we're talking about here? There it is. Summarize this video, I'm going to say Maggie and Ash talking a lot of... Oh, I'll let you fill in the blank. This is a real human who's typing this stuff in. Brian's real. Yeah, Brian's real, for sure.