3 Banger Trades For June | Macro Mondays June 1, 2026

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1:27Andreas Steno Larsen:From the open to the end They try to be as actionable and as honest as possible But keep in mind that their predictions might be Sometimes may be good Sometimes may be shit Sometimes may be shit

1:49Andreas Steno Larsen:It's Macro Mondays, big picture Clear play, stocks, bonds

2:09Mikkel Rosenvold:Hello there, welcome to Real Vision, welcome to Macro Mondays. My name is Mikael Rosemal, I'm joined as usual by Andreas Denel. And I'm not sure if you can see it in the caption of Andreas here, but we are joined by your son Andreas as well in the studio. Yeah, we have a live audience today. Here we go. It's going to be wonderful. Wonderful. Great to see you, Andres. And, Andres, quite an eventful afternoon, European time, morning, U.S. time we've had here. So we both have interesting news out of Iran. The break-off of WhatsApp negotiations, apparently, between U.S. and Iran. We have brand-new ISM numbers, so we have a lot to unwrap.

2:50Mikkel Rosenvold:And we obviously entered a new month, so we're going to try to unwrap what we see coming in June, both from a macroeconomical standpoint, but also throw in a few trade ideas maybe. Maybe if we have time for it, we're just going to touch upon Bitcoin that you also wrote a bit about in your StenoSignals report address. And speaking of your StenoSignals reports, it's out this afternoon or later today. That's one of the three paid articles that we publish every week on Real Vision. That's for the ProTier. If you're not interested in the ProTier, you can always watch MacroMondays. That's for free every Monday.

3:24Mikkel Rosenvold:But we do urge you to look at some of the options at Real Vision. If you opt for the approach here, you can also catch Andreas' monthly State of the Union show this Wednesday. What can people expect there, Andreas?

3:38Andreas Steno Larsen:Well, it's early days, but it seems like we have more or less flatlining inflation momentum in the U.S., especially since the first week of May, which is a big surprise in many ways, given that we don't have a resolution to the Strait of Amoose. And, you know, given what happened 45 minutes ago, it looks even further away, that resolution, to be honest. So a lot of surprises still in the macro landscape, in my opinion. And remember that roughly two months ago, everyone was caught in a very doom and gloom-like storytelling around the Iran war and how it would impact global supply chains growth and all of that.

4:19Andreas Steno Larsen:and we stayed with a very positive view on the economy due to our now casting. It basically looked a lot better than what was portrayed in many financial media outlets, etc. And it allowed us to capture this massive rally that we've seen over the past two months. And my main conclusion in the editorial today is that we're currently high-fiving each other right, left and center around our abilities to find the next bottleneck trade in AI, the next bottleneck trade in electricity. But remember that macro is basically the driver, right? And therefore, macro is, you know, everything. And it will be everything in that show on Wednesday.

5:03Mikkel Rosenvold:Absolutely. Looking forward to that, Andreas. Remember, guys, as you alluded to a little bit here, over the past two months, things have been mostly good. But remember that our trade ideas, while actionable and well-researched might be.

5:16Andreas Steno Larsen:Sometimes it may be good, sometimes it may be shit.

5:19Mikkel Rosenvold:That's always important also to mention even when things are going okay here, Andreas. Okay, Andreas, let's maybe start on the ISM that just came out. Very, very strong number, surprisingly strong from what I saw. What's your initial reaction here?

5:37Andreas Steno Larsen:So again, it rhymes very well with what we're seeing in our now costs. we're talking about a US economy that is mostly accelerating in manufacturing terms, not as much in services terms. And I actually think this is what you should expect for the upcoming couple of quarters as well, since the whole AI build-out is very manufacturing heavy, not least due to the hardware trade that we've talked a lot about over the past couple of months, but obviously also due to the on-ground capex that follows such a build-out of data centers, etc. So very satisfied to see that the manufacturing sector is basically growing at a faster pace than it did pre-war.

6:19Andreas Steno Larsen:Big surprise to many, but it was well flagged in our nowcasts. And the new orders index is rising as well. So, I mean, it looks good for the next couple of months here. Again, this has caught many by surprise. But if you follow the data on ground on a day-to-day basis, it shouldn't really surprise you, to be honest.

6:39Mikkel Rosenvold:Absolutely. Andreas. We're going to get back to the inflation part of it, obviously. Let's just touch upon Iran a little bit before moving on to what we see happening in June and some of the bottlenecks trades we've been looking at. Andreas, you mentioned it 45 minutes ago. We had the news that Iran has broken off message replies is probably one translation of what we saw in Farsi. I'm not a Farsi speaker. It's probably a few WhatsApp channels, if I'm being completely honest. that are being shut down, that have served as some of the main communication links between the U.S. and Iran. We also saw, over the last few days, increased attacks between the U.S.

7:21Mikkel Rosenvold:and Iran. My reading on that, that remains even with what we've seen today, is that the ceasefire and the peace process is very, very fragile. But as long as both sides still stick to the wording of a ceasefire, then we have a ceasefire. So as long as the attacks are centered around the Strait of Hormuz, close to the water, you can somehow claim that it's contained within that realm, that it's different from attacks on Dubai or Tehran or whatever. But it's becoming really, really fragile and aggressive. This is a long way from the almost, this is almost over, that we've heard over and over again, especially if you follow Barack Ravid and the Axios guys.

8:07Mikkel Rosenvold:I believe they do a great job, but we've heard from them, I think, a dozen times at least that this is it. Now it's done. We're still waiting for that final here we go message from the White House. But Andreas, what do you make of the market reaction? We're seeing oil obviously spike on these news. Do you think the market patient is running out with this or are we still pricing this unfairly?

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9:33Andreas Steno Larsen:so i actually think the market reaction is fairly benign i mean oil is up a little bit more than a handful of percent but if you look at the u.s equity market i mean yeah sure we're down a little bit but it's it's almost flat on the day right um for what it's worth uh this iran war outside of the few first weeks has proven to be a lot less relevant for the global economy than many fear, right? And I know there's an end date to that view, since we cannot rely on global storages of oil and jet fuel and what have you for the remainder of the year. So we need a resolution on probably within this quarter or the early parts of next quarter for this global upswing to remain intact.

10:18Andreas Steno Larsen:But for now, the market seems pretty calm about what we've received from the Iranian news bureau just 45 minutes ago. As far as I can tell, Mikkel, they basically tell the US to rein in the Israeli Defense Force, basically. That's the key message. you need to stop Israel for us to sign a deal. And you said this to me on Friday, expect Israel to do something now because they have a window of opportunity before the deal is signed. So maybe this is, you know, the last saber rattling. I don't know. I mean, I've called an end to this war quite a few times and I think I should refrain from doing it again.

11:05Mikkel Rosenvold:Yeah, but we've made a lot of money doing so, Andreas. That is the end of the day while we're here. No, but you're right. I feel like, Andreas, it's like when you're at a nightclub and it's getting late, it's three, four o 'clock. You can hear, okay, these are the final songs. You need to make a move now. I think that is essentially what Israel is up to. It may sound a little bit cynical. I know people are dying. It's horrible. But from a strategic standpoint, they have a window when we have a true peace between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. will not allow Israel to continue these attacks. So they need to get some business done.

11:38Mikkel Rosenvold:And they always have a list of things they want to do inside their neighboring countries. And they're trying to get as much of that done because it buys them time and advantage over Hezbollah moving forward. So, Andreas, once again, I have no effing clue when this thing is going to end. It seems like Trump keeps getting close to a deal, but then changing his mind, getting close to a deal, then changing his mind, always trying for slightly better terms. Still quoting the fact that the Iranians believe they've won this. and they have a legitimate claim that they have at least held out to a draw.

12:11Mikkel Rosenvold:So it's very, very hard for Trump to find an off ramp that satisfies his requirements for calling this a victory. But anyway, the economy is still doing quite well. We have these supply chain issues. Some of them are being worked on. Some of it is handled through demand destruction, not as much perhaps. Perhaps still a few scenarios. That's the last thing I want to ask you here, Andreas. What do you see as sort of the pain threshold here time-wise? If this drags on throughout the summer, is that a problem? How far do we need to go before this truly becomes a problem? My best guess right now is that we have comfortably still have six, seven weeks left of reserves.

12:58Andreas Steno Larsen:But of course, if you get very close to that deadline, the leverage from the US side weakens quite a lot, if I'm right. So let's see. My base case and my working assumption has been that we need to strike some sort of ceasefire deal or prolonged deal, including at least the partial reopening of the Strait of Hamos sometime during June for the economy to keep accelerating. and I still hold that view. Of course, if they close the shipping route through the Red Sea as well, which is something that they've threatened with using their alliances around the globe, let me put it like that. In this case, obviously, the Houthis in Yemen to break havoc on that part of the supply chain as well.

13:52Andreas Steno Larsen:And if they strike a few ships there, I'm pretty sure that we'll get a few nasty days at markets, right? So that is obviously the one that we need to watch now. But they've had so many opportunities to do so, and it doesn't seem like the Houthis are really willing to do it. I'm not really capable of explaining why, but why now they've had plenty, plenty of chances to do it.

14:12Mikkel Rosenvold:Yeah, exactly. It seems like there is a willingness to contain this from Iran's standpoint and still keeping that leverage alive, because they are losing the Hormuz leverage long term. But let's move on a little bit, Andreas, to look at the month of June. We've just talked about the potential top in inflation, good ISM number, and things are looking quite okay. And Andreas, in our portfolio, which has been doing great this year, we've picked out currently nine thematics that we're trading against. You can track the portfolio live on Real Vision. Myself, personally, I've skewed my investments a bit more towards two of those thematics.

14:51Mikkel Rosenvold:And that's obviously the two of the nine that have performed horribly to us from 26, robotics and military drones. We had a bit of life support in the military drones last week, and I still believe completely in these topics. Robotics is still, especially industrial robotics, still struggling a little bit here in 26. But then you sent me this video, Andreas, and this revived all my hopes in industrial robotics. Let's see if we can get it played here.

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16:25Mikkel Rosenvold:So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. And this guide will help you navigate what's coming. The link is in the description. Download it now. Zondra, my thinking here is if there is so much potential money to be made, And it's the real potential because these home service robotics aren't really on the market, aside from vacuum cleaners. If there's so much money to be made in this that it pays off to now, way before these things were on the market, it's already profitable to clean people's homes for free.

17:04Mikkel Rosenvold:I mean, the potential must be huge in this.

17:08Andreas Steno Larsen:Am I right? Of course the potential is huge. I wouldn't call it profitable as of today, right? but um the point here and i guess it's it's a thing that i've you know kind of missed this year is that for ai to work in real life situations such as you know cleaning desks or whatever it is you need loads and loads and loads and loads of recordings right and the one example we have of you know millions of hours of recordings in real life is in autonomous vehicles we've had teslas on the road for a long while we've had waymos on the road for a long while and they've just double their driven autonomous miles over the past six months or something like that.

18:07Andreas Steno Larsen:It's a true exponential case by now. But in a load of other real-life practical issues, we still need the recordings first for the AI to be trained. And therefore, we're probably talking years before those robots, those humanoid robots are really, truly capable of solving these things. And the question is whether we have patience enough in this cycle to wait for that. I mean, I fully believe in this trend, say five, seven years ahead. But the question is whether we will get enough progress in some of these cases related to humanoid robots already this cycle. I doubt it because we need all of these recordings first.

18:55So, you know, in practical terms,

18:58Andreas Steno Larsen:what we've done is that we've started to tilt our robotics portfolio towards autonomous miles as a simple consequence of that, because there we actually have a load of recordings already that you can use to train the models.

19:13Mikkel Rosenvold:Makes a lot of sense, Andres. Okay, let's zoom into the matter truly at hand here in the month of June. We've talked about this being at least partially liquidity-driven rally. Where do you see the liquidity situation right now? We have sort of our go-to chart coming up here.

19:35Andreas Steno Larsen:Yeah, there it is. We have another good month ahead of us, largely driven by technicalities, since the US Treasury is currently underestimating the issuance needs. And this is in sharp contrast to what we saw during the second half of last year. I remember how the deficit actually proved to be better than feared during large parts of last year, in parts due to the tariffs intake. And currently, the tariffs intake is not particularly strong, to say the least. We've had two rulings against the tariffs policy of the administration now. First, these reciprocal tariffs on a one-on-one basis versus other countries.

20:20Andreas Steno Larsen:They were deemed illegal, I think it was in January. and then the administration replaced those reciprocal tariffs with a 10 % global tax instead, and that was deemed illegal as well. So now they're stuck with a tariffs intake that is probably at max index 40 of what they hoped for. So it's a big deal for the deficit. It actually turned into a pretty nice revenue source, this tariffs policy. and and now they're i actually don't know whether they're looking into new solutions on on on how to terrace other countries but but uh terrify the countries but uh for now it's crystal clear that they have to pay back more than they take it uh which leaves a nasty hole in the budget for the coming month or two and you know the last time they updated their issuance profile was i think it was the 3rd of may and um yeah we've only had negative surprises since so it basically means that they have to use the liquidity that they have at hand already, on hand already, right?

21:26Andreas Steno Larsen:They have this TGA at the Federal Reserve currently running below projections as a consequence of this. And I think we'll see a large drawdown on this account over the next four to six weeks as a consequence of these tariffs paybacks. And that essentially means that private banks will be on the receiving end of this liquidity. And do note on the very bottom of this panel, we probably have the metric that matters the most, a live gauge of the price of leverage. So it's the spread between SOFA rates and effective Fed funds rates. And we're pricing very negative now, meaning that the SOFA rate is well below the effective Fed funds rate.

22:08Andreas Steno Larsen:And that typically happens when there's an abundance of dollars. So basically banks are readily available in terms of providing you with balance sheet capacity to lever up trades and treasuries, mortgages, whatever. And that's a big part of what's ongoing right now, because we've obviously seen a spike in leverage through this rally. And given how it's priced right now, I would assume that the spike in leverage continues. A spike in leverage can be two-sided, Basically, you can also use leverage to shorten things, right? And we've certainly seen that, for example, in software, which is probably one of the reasons why software is now flying, because we essentially have a short squeeze there.