A New Bull Run or a Bull Trap? | REKT Vision (November 28, 2025)

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2:00Hey, everyone. As you know, on this podcast, I bring the best guests in the world at that nexus of understanding of macro crypto and the exponential age of technology. If you're enjoying the show, a quick five-star rating goes a long way. It helps us grow and keep these conversations coming with the best guests in the world. Thanks a lot. Hello again. We are back for another episode of Rekt Vision. The market has had a slightly better week. So it's always good to see. I know we were kind of holding on for dear life just above 80K last week, but we are back again. We have Farouk to join us today.

2:38I know I do a daily show with him every day. So a number of different people will be aware of him if you've been following me for a while. He is the president of Destan, which owns Myriad, which is a prediction market as well as the crypts and rug radio which is a a podcasting network great to have you on for oak thanks for joining us thanks for having me i mean i made it to real vision are you kidding me i was just on the phone with uh with raul pal earlier and i was like dude i'm gonna be on real vision today like that's crazy i must be really important finally made it he finally made it he only turns up when we're at all-time high so we haven't seen him for a few weeks um he kind of goes into hiding and then just turns up.

3:23So 125K, I expect the next appearance of Raoul. They wheel me out every week from now until then, essentially. It does feel, luckily, like the market has come back a bit. I think this time last week, we were maybe bouncing off basically the lows, which was just north of 80K. And we were probably doing the show around 83K, 84K, and we just touched around 80. Everything was all looking a bit south. And I think we had Spencer on, who was a good conversation, but it has since bounced over the course of this week. It was a little bit, you know, we had a couple of false dawns, but we're back up to around 92, 93K on Bitcoin, which is perhaps the main indicator.

4:09I guess you can probably guess where everything else is kind of lying after that. It's just above 3K. Solana is around 140. So mixed bag. But it is good to see Bitcoin kind of not just going vertically down as it had been for a while. Yeah, it was aggressive. Do I have to say like it was it was hella depressing. I mean, I host a morning show with you, like you said. So we have to turn up every day. But it's depressing like when every single day like you wake up to like not a small red candle, like a fat red candle. And then you go home on the weekend. You're like, it's going to be a low, low volume weekend.

4:46And we're going to pump and squeeze. and you just dump more, right? So it's like seven days straight of dumping. It's aggressive. So 91K this week feels amazing. 91K two weeks ago felt like, you know, we were going to lose our houses, but we'll take it. Yeah, it is exactly like that. Actually, I saw a post by Rao this week, basically saying everyone just chill out. We're going to return to this long-term correlation for global liquidity. There were a couple of things over the last week. There was that viral post about how Bitcoin's basically over and its view around money has kind of fallen apart.

5:21And then you had just general doomerism, lots of liquidations. It really did feel like peak bear about a week ago. And that was shown in the indicators, right? We were the most oversold we've ever been on certain indicators. And we've had a decent bounce. It's difficult to tell right now if this is going to be more than just a bounce. It still looks like we're comfortably below some of the longer term trend indicators like the weekly moving averages, but we're at least regaining some form of a stronghold. I don't know at this stage. I have largely reduced a decent amount of my Bitcoin allocation since it broke below that 50-week moving average.

6:06I didn't really buy back in aggressively. I did buy a couple of alts, strangely, this week, because weirdly, it has felt like alts aren't doing so badly suddenly. Like Bitcoin dominance, normally in a move from 120 to 80k, you'd assume Bitcoin dominance would head higher, but it's kind of just gone flat and maybe even drifted lower in some spots, which has meant some altcoins have actually outperformed. This week, we had Hyperliquid, which has kind of drifted back towards even 40 today. and they've got some key unlocks tomorrow. So people are looking at that. You had some of the memes looked relatively strong again, which is a little bit surprising.

6:47It just doesn't feel as bad suddenly for altcoins than maybe Bitcoin. No, I agree. I mean, I put a tweet out the other day, something along the lines like, BTC dominance is not looking the best. And I think that's something you pointed out to us first on the show. And it was like, I had trouble breaking back about 59%. It's probably still there, right? It was at 58%. It's still looking great, but it's still strong. It probably is higher now. But then you look at some stronger memes and stuff like hype, and surprisingly, Ethereum is holding above 3 ,000. Solana has always been good. I mean, those Bitwise ETFs are really gobbling up Solana, dude.

7:24So it's been pretty good to see. And ironically, for the first time in a while, I've been kind of bullish. I don't want to say alts. I think altism is never coming back. but some alts are looking good right there's just too many alts of an alt season like you can't call alt season because like a million alts but um yeah the market doesn't look bad put that in perspective some of the big biggest gainers on the week we have pepe shib fart coin yeah it's like it's like a strange like all of these coins are up a lot yeah and then like you said a number of the l1s have actually been better so we've had solana xrp eth all beating bitcoin on the week um and it's It's not a period where they've been underperforming before as well.

8:07They've just matched Bitcoin's performance and then almost bounced stronger. So strange bit of the market right now. Again, I'm not like super drawn into so many of those stories yet because I think they can be very dangerous if we don't regain some of these bull market metrics. But I'm generally still of the belief that we will return to that correlation with things like global liquidity gold price which again gold looks like it's heading back to all-time highs stocks stocks bounce pretty aggressively this week too like there was a little bit of a worry about the mag 7 and google just kind of it really just seems like a rotation out of nvidia into google which has just meant everything's everything just looks pretty good again um and And yeah, like I said, I still have reduced my allocations, but I'm looking at this sort of stuff.

9:02And I feel like that's the sentiment around CT2. It feels like everyone is underinvested almost and waiting to see kind of what happens suddenly. So a quick break in your regular programming. If you're serious about your future, grab my free report called Prepare for 2030. I think you've got five years to make as much money as possible. and this guide will help you navigate what's coming the link is in the description download it now i mean look you know me i'm a permable uh but recently it's been very hard for me to be one of those i mean i have to keep the brand going right i'm always bullish because i'm a long-term player i'm a founder i'm sure we'll talk about that in a bit so my outlook on crypto is extremely bullish up into the right long term but hyper short term like between today and in the year i was not the most bullish anymore uh not positions like that either because the last few weeks have been horrible but i like what you deployed this week you deployed this week yeah i bought a lot of fart coin actually i just bought some more while you were talking uh because we just got some red out of 346 but um i like a fart coin um i'm not trying to pump my bags because it's just like it went up 100 % from the lows.

10:18Wintermute is fully out. It's not a meme, but they're actually out. Like some people went through their wallets and posted about it. And it's usually a good leading indicator of how the market's doing. And then I don't want to shell wreck too much, but obviously it's wrecked vision, but I am a top 20 holder there. I never sold. I've been holding it for a year and a half. So I have a lot of that, which is good to see come back up from those liquidation cascades. And then I like hype, man, though. I mean, the unlock start tomorrow. it pumped from$29 to$36 and some change. I sold my longs at$36, I think.

10:53And I'm waiting patiently right now to get back in. I mean, all you need is like someone to write a thread about one employee selling their hype allocation. And then you'll probably get a good dip opportunity on it, right? So the thing is, these people deserve it, right? They sent a token to like 30 billion FDV. I think out of all people, they really deserve a good paycheck, but you know how it is. And so I'm going to be looking at that the most. I'm not looking at Bitcoin as much as the other ones. It's interesting, though, because last time Bitcoin slowed down, you did see a bit of a meme season as well.

11:26So the reason why we're talking about this is because it's strange to see that to me. Like memes have been almost uninvestable for a long time. Farccoin went from$2 billion down to$300 million. $180. Yeah,$180. Similarly, you saw 80 % to 90 % drops in things like Pepe and some of the major memes. So it's just interesting to see those lead altcoins again for the first time in a long time, probably since this time last year, really. And even then, it was like different sorts of memes, right? It was like the runner of the day. So I do think culture, if we are entering a period of, let's say, sideways or even a mini bear, let's say, I do think I would be very unsurprised if memes do better again, just because the people who kind of stick around are often the culture carriers and they tend to like memes.

12:21And then, yeah, the second thing you said was around the perp dexes. So there's obviously, it's gotten even more competitive if that was possible in perp dexes. And we've seen Leiter become a much bigger player over the last few weeks. People have been looking, people speak very highly of the founder. I think he graduated from Harvard at something like 18 and worked at Citadel for a while. And he's built this protocol. but hyper liquid there's been a lot of bullishness yeah the unlocks i think are a bit mixed people think they must restake the um the team supply but the main thing is about equity perps which i think we spoke about last week or a few weeks ago that this this is this is going to be the product that stays with crypto for a long time it feels like the perp and it's now being expanded pretty rapidly into equities.

13:14We saw a number of equities listed on Lighter, Hyperliquid, Trade.xyz, which is also on Hyperliquid. And I think AST has got some equity perps as well. There's a few other pretty big platforms for this, but we saw pretty huge volumes suddenly go through Hyperliquid this week. And everyone was like, well, oh, wow. So this isn't just a revenue around crypto trading play but suddenly this is a a a trade around equity perps you you traded you said it was the first time you've traded four or five years no

13:52so i only bought stocks once in my life and it was amc and jimmy in 2020 q4 oh blackberry i cooked on that um and then robin hood like really rocked us hard and then that's what got me into dogecoin into crypto and then the rest is history. So like, there's a fun story there for you. But I bought equities for the first time because I don't have an equities account. And so I bought some Google because you were like, yo, Google's looking good. But I'm already out of that. That lasted about 48 hours. You know, it was fun buying equities, but the funding, you know, the product. So I did it because I'm such a crypto nerd.

14:28Like for those people that don't know, like I'm obsessed with crypto. And I love when crypto changes something and the fact that i was able to buy a i bought like hundreds of google stock i think it was two three hundred grand worth of like google for fun and the fact that i was able to buy google shares on leverage on hyperliquid just felt really cool to me in like the nerdy way and it lasted 24 hours 40 hours whatever but i thought it was really cool and that made me more bullish on hype though not on google not on nvidia smp man though it may be more bullish on us and i think all roads lead back to like blockchain technology and crypto like all everyone's obsessed with like ai trade i think the blockchain trade is going to be 10 times bigger than ai trade it's just taking a little longer because we for some reason just keep taking bigger hits um but like i bought equities and i just went back to crypto right away like i'm here i here i am back in bidding farccoin right um so i don't know no look i think that is an example is actually, you can obviously make generalizations from one thing, but this is, I think, pretty important, that this sort of age of investors that have been in crypto for maybe multiple, multiple years have largely exited from stocks, but they still have quite a lot of money often.

15:52And now you just see these very easy rails, like to actually suddenly buy Google stock, You didn't have to set up a brokerage account. You didn't have to do KYC. You didn't have to do this, that, and the other. It was just, you just deposited on Hyperliquid and bought Google. And obviously, there's a funding element to it, but you could do it on leverage as well. This is going to be an incredibly attractive investment route for so many different people. The fact that the last stock you bought was AMC on Robinhood, and now it's five years later and Hyperliquid, you're able to just buy Google and you're in and out of it in, you know, fairly big size.

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17:29Not all applicants will qualify. Plus500, it's trading with a plus. I think that is people started doing the maths a bit more about that. And owning some of these PERP protocols, particularly the leaders, actually to look at them on their current revenue, it's often pretty, pretty myopic, because if that goes a bit more mainstream, it's going to be, you know, these, these volume figures could, could really start multiplying. I mean, dude, like how much is hyperliquid volume for, for HIP3 right now? It's literally open interest for anthropic right now is half a million dollars. But the volume is$158 million for XYZ, right?

18:15That's S &P, I think. X &P is NASDAQ, I believe. NASDAQ. Okay, sorry. Google is$30 million, right? So it's like 250 mil a day to half a billion dollars a day, depending on the day, right? Like when stocks are hot. Like right now, Crypto Bros, it's Thanksgiving, they're trading crypto. So like, they're not going to trade. I mean, the market's closed, right? But like on a Monday, it'll be like half a billion dollars. That's insane to me, right? And so we're going to be able to trade everything on these platforms. So I've never tried the other ones. I'm a recent Hyperliquid user. So I don't want to act like I've been using it for a while.

18:45You know me, I'm not a perpetrator at all. I actually don't like it. I even use Hyperliquid to buy stuff on 1x, by the way. So I mostly use it for that because it's just faster and a great tool. But these Perp Dex, man, they're revolutionizing the entire financial industry right now. Yeah. There was a good post actually by Hasib about that today. just about we don't think exponentially anymore, that people are often thinking too at current multiples. And if this sort of product now is being accepted, you can really return to real exponential growth. PubDex would be one of those things. The other main thing I would say is prediction markets at the moment.

19:32Everyone's incredibly bullish about them. And this is, for the viewers who don't know, Farouk is also the co-founder of one of the biggest prediction markets in the space, Myriad.Markets, which I think doesn't operate directly in the US, but operates kind of everywhere. But this week, we had a bunch of headlines around prediction markets. We saw Polymarket get some form of nationwide license to operate again. I don't know if it's a license or just access to operate in the US. we saw some some of the states seemingly fighting back it looked like koushi was had a lawsuit against it but um nevada basically reversed an earlier judgment which means that they uh that koushi is going to be subject to to regulations uh sports booking regulations at least in nevada and there looks a couple of other states are also looking to to do similar and reverse what was the nationwide access that was given.

20:34What's your, I mean, you see everything from the front line at the moment. What's your feeling around the markets? You've seen unbelievable growth in the platform over the last few weeks. I mean, I think they're at the center of everything. You know, a thing that comes in often in this industry is metas. The good thing about prediction markets is that they're not a meta. It's the birth of a multi-trillion dollar asset class. I mean, you probably know, you're quite knowledgeable about the stock market, but prediction markets are not a new thing. They've been around for like a hundred years, dude.

21:06And there was a point in time where contracts and these things were actually doing more volume than stocks, like in the 1920s. And so they've been made illegal for a long time, and it looks like they're coming back right now, thanks to a lot of big players in the space, especially through DCM, DCO licenses, which we're working on as well over at Myriad. And so to me, they're just another asset class that's going to be taking over, you know, your day to day. Right. I think within crypto, especially, it's a great offering because meme coins are cool, but 99 percent of people get wrecked. I think we both know that coins in general as well, altcoins and people can trade, you know, outcomes and they it's it's a better it's sticky.

21:47There's mode. And, you know, I think NFTs were the last biggest mass onboarding event in the history of crypto back in 2021. And I think prediction markets are going to be the next one. And we're seeing that with Polymarket. Polymarket is arguably one of the most successful crypto apps in the history of cryptocurrency. And the last time we saw something like this, I mean, I don't even know, right? Besides hyperliquid and Polymarket, there's not much, right? So it's really perplexes in prediction markets. And, you know, it's going to start occupying more and more, you know, mindshare with this industry for sure.

22:20Yeah, it's been every single month seemingly breaking new records. I think obviously - It's crazy. This victory in the court case, what was it, six, nine months ago, which allowed access to the US has been the big driver of recent volume, particularly on sports. But it does feel as a product as well, it is really gaining traction. You're right in that creation markets have been big in financial markets for a long time. In crypto, they were some of the first apps as well crypto they just never really got scale it felt like um like polymarket was nowhere near the first uh prediction market there's been prediction markets i think no right up until the birth of eth maybe even before so the first two applications on ethereum are prediction markets augur and gnosis you know gnosis is safe that you use it was literally started as a prediction market augur which is now doing prediction markets again was also the first prediction markets that's 2015.

23:16That's the first two dApps on Ethereum. The first two were prediction markets. That didn't work out. They moved on. Polymarket came and killed it. But prediction markets really, man, have existed for so long. Like maybe 100 years, man, though. Yeah, I don't actually know the history of prediction markets in TradFi. I know, obviously, you have futures which have been around for a long time. And I think there's maybe some similarities there. But yeah, this idea of being able to bet on certain things, particularly for like agricultural products, I think has been around for a long time. And now it's now extending to prediction markets, which is just expanding the scope.

23:57It feels like you go into Polymarket, you go into Kalshi or you go into Myriad, you can bet on everything, it feels like. And then just to talk about, like I just spoke about the growth of the platforms because of the US access. it feels as though there's been more growth than that though like your numbers have what 10x in the last two months yeah we 10x in three months um it's actually insane mando like we went i haven't open that right now we went from 4.6 million we did two and a half million dollars in july three million august 4.6 million in september we did 37 million in october and we just hit 82 million dollars this month uh we hit we hit 100 million dollars not long ago or 135 million dollars like volume over um a lifetime with over 400 000 signups to the platform so we're seeing it um i think we're very well positioned that myriad to be that like third you know that's how i'm framing it and that's it's it's working out pretty well you know polymarket calcium what is driving that volume like who who are the people coming in like what are you actually seeing in terms of the player type and what are they really what are they using the most people are loving crypto native markets like you know we did a market with you and keyword monkey right which was like you guys you and keyword monkey bet on will um bitcoin go to 120k or 100k first and you both put a widget 100 000 right and we escrow that for you guys and we did a million dollars of volume uh people are loving this people are loving our sentiment markets right there i see the screen like it's on on the right side which is like a perpetual market that never closes and never resolves.

25:40It's up or down, east or west, Polymarket or Calci. We actually have a market called that, which is super fun. And then people are loving just also like this one. These are super cool. They're doing a lot of volume. And people are loving these like quick hit markets. So the good thing about us is that we're very quick to open markets. And so when Zcash was pumping, for example, Calci and Polymarket were not as quick as us as like opening markets around Zcash. but we opened markets around them saying hey is zcash going to hit 420 by like in the week and that was doing like three million dollars of volume in like a 48 to 72 hour span so it's like these things are working and people love them so anything related to like culture core crypto etc works out because you know very well like we come out of crypto right like myriad markets is like a product made by crypto people we own our radio we own the crypt media so probably the real vision people are more familiar with decrypt so i'm the you know president of the company that owns you know both these entities and so you know injecting these markets into decrypt has helped us a lot as well and so that's what we're seeing right now in terms of trends it's not even sports it's not even politics it's really pure crypto markets and can you explain how the business works a little bit so how do you make money how as a user are they charge fees like what we have what's the experience like from a user who wants to maybe put on a uh like a prediction yeah i mean look for us right now the way that we work uh we have a three percent fee it depends on the market right we're running some specials right now we're like we have some markets have zero percent fees some markets have like your market with kbm was a one percent fee market uh we're launching some partners partner integrations next week which will be actually two percent fee but originally myriad was three percent fee market and while that may sound or seem like it's a lot versus, you know, this race is zero with other prediction markets.

27:30We need to like make money, right? It's like 1 % of that goes back to volume. 1 % of that, sorry, to us, 1 % of that goes back to liquidity because we also have to like see the liquidity for all these markets as it's an AMM model. And 1 % of that can either go to the partner or to reinvesting it or to returning it to users, et cetera. That has worked out pretty well for us. Right now, like this is really the bread and butter. is just on the fee because, you know, as a media company, which is, I think, something Real Vision can relate to, it's very hard to monetize that, right? Like when you own Rock Radio, when you're on Decrypt, the only way you make money, and you know this, is through sponsors, right?

28:07And sponsorships, but that's not a viable business model. That doesn't make sense, right? Like the only way as a media company that you make money in 2025 is by selling it to a billionaire or by closing shop. There's no in between. Media companies do not make money. But billionaires love media companies. Bezos bought Wall Street Journal, Benioff bought Time, Elon bought X, etc. etc. etc. And for us, we decided that we thought prediction markets would be that thing because prediction markets and the intersection of media make perfect sense. And so we went down that route. And so far, that business model has been pretty good.

28:39So we're using our distribution mechanisms to serve markets to people and we're making revenue on the fee. I believe Is that how everyone operates? I'm just, maybe I'm speaking more broadly. So how does it work for most people? They all make money on a fee, dude. Calchi has a fee. Polymarket, even though they don't have a fee, sometimes there's like a difference in the spread. Like if you actually like look into the economics of the predictions that you're making, there's somewhat of a fee baked in in there. I do think that there's going to be a race to zero Similar to NFT marketplaces That's going to be taking place I believe the Polymarket US app Is going to go live with a 0.01 % fee But I have a hard time Imagining how these platforms will make money What we know for sure is that the Polymarkets of this world Were losing a lot of money originally Which is why they had to raise Hundreds of millions of dollars I think their treasury is like a couple billion dollars now.

29:46But I don't think that's sustainable. There needs to be somewhat of a fee baked in there. Right. Yeah, it does seem that way. And I think there was even a lawsuit over the last few days around Cal Sheet because of the other thing is like the liquidity aspect, right? And you obviously have to get market makers or liquidity providers in to come and provide the liquidity if the platform doesn't do it themselves. And there's questions about the legality of all of that. So I agree that at this stage, it still feels kind of nascent in how everyone's going to make money because there is this race to the bottom around fees.

30:26And then there's questions about how you can provide liquidity then if it's not, it can't be centralized and there's no fees. So I feel like these things will get sorted out. I'm sure they will. It's almost like you need guidance about how you should operate something like this. But I do think that the product is really finding its footing. I mean, I saw an interview with MBS. I think it was. Oh yeah, yeah, that was sick. 10 days ago where he turned up to a dinner at the White House and he said, look, there was money on if I was going to wear a suit today on Polymarket. And I was just like, this is wild.

31:06Like the idea that this is now going this broad and leaders are starting to pick up about it. Even a place like Saudi Arabia, right, where this would just be not really allowed. Like very, very strict laws around this stuff. Like the idea that he would be cognizant of that and talked about it, I thought was pretty pervasive. It taps into a different part of you, right? Like we're men, right? We love to see what people are betting on us and talking about us. Like human nature, right? Like this prediction market thing, which I love, it taps into this human nature side of you, which is like people love to see how much the ego, right?