In short
Podcast Notes: Real Vision: Finance & Investing
Episode Title
AI Fire Hose #3: AI is Literally Doing God’s Work
Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts Ash Bennington and Mikhail Voloshan discuss the growing impact of artificial intelligence (AI) across various industries, including journalism, religious practices, and financial advisory. They explore both the potential and challenges presented by AI integration, as well as the implications for traditional job roles.
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Key Discussions
AI in Journalism
- Gannett Experiment
- Gannett, a newspaper conglomerate, attempted to use AI for writing sports news, specifically for high school events.
- The experiment faced backlash due to the use of clichéd phrases and a lack of coherence in the articles.
- Ultimately, the initiative was deemed a failure and was shut down.
- Google's Approach
- In contrast, Google is experimenting with AI-assisted news writing designed to help journalists rather than replace them.
- Journalists gather information and input it into an AI system that compiles it into coherent articles.
- This model emphasizes collaboration rather than replacement.
AI-Assisted Writing
- Co-Creation Model
- The discussion emphasizes a future where journalists may work alongside AI to enhance productivity and quality.
- Examples include a financial news writer who uses AI for news aggregation and article creation, significantly reducing writing time.
AI in Religious Context
- Robot Preachers
- An organization in Japan developed a humanoid android preacher which delivered sermons.
- Audience reactions indicated that human preachers were more effective in inspiring congregants and soliciting donations compared to the robotic preacher.
- Rabbi's Experiment
- Rabbi Joshua Franklin successfully used AI to draft a sermon which received positive feedback from his congregation.
- The episode discusses the limitations of AI in capturing the emotional and spiritual connection present in human-led religious services.
AI in Children's Literature
- Controversy Over AI-Generated Books
- Amar Reshi created a children’s book using GPT for text and MidJourney for illustrations, sparking debate over the use of AI in creative fields.
- Critics expressed concerns that AI art derives from existing styles, which could undermine traditional illustrators.
AI in Financial Advisory
- Morgan Stanley's Approach
- Morgan Stanley plans to use AI to assist financial advisors by creating meeting summaries and managing logistics rather than replacing human interaction.
- The focus is on enhancing the client experience through AI support, rather than substituting personal relationships.
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Key Takeaways
- AI as an Augmentative Tool: Across various sectors, AI is currently viewed more as a tool that enhances human capabilities rather than a direct replacement for jobs.
- Caution in Implementation: While many AI applications show promise, there remain significant challenges in ensuring quality and maintaining human oversight.
- Ethical Considerations: The integration of AI raises questions about originality, authenticity, and the emotional elements that are difficult for machines to replicate.
- Future Outlook: The conversation points toward a future where collaboration between AI and human workers becomes standard, allowing for increased efficiency while preserving the essential human elements of creativity and personal connection.
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Conclusion The episode concludes on an optimistic note, suggesting that while AI poses questions and challenges, its current role is primarily to enhance human productivity. The hosts encourage ongoing dialogue about the implications of AI in various fields and the importance of adapting to technological advancements.
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Call to Action Listeners are encouraged to subscribe to the podcast for more insights into finance and investing, and to engage with the hosts on social media regarding ideas and feedback for future episodes.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Hey, everyone. If you like this podcast, go behind the paywall to get privileged access to the smartest minds in finance. Visit realvision.com slash RVpod and use the promo code podcast10. That's podcast10 to get 10 % off our essential membership for the first year. Join the Real Vision community and learn how to become a better investor. And now to the top analysis of today's markets.
0:31What's going on, guys? Welcome to Real Vision's weekly AI firehose, where we drink from the stream of everything that's happening in the exploding field of artificial intelligence. I'm Ash Bennington, joined by our resident AI expert, AI developer, Mikhail Voloshan. Mikhail, always enjoy these shows with you, man. Look forward to it all week. Likewise, we've got a really fun show going on today. We're talking about AI writing news. We've got AIs writing sermons. We've got AIs writing children's books. And we've got AIs trying to trick humans and break out of their confines of their digital reality and use us for their own gain.
1:09So a lot of exciting stuff today. Sounds like a great show. Let's start at the top talking about this idea of AI writing news stories. Two big stories on this front, one about Gannett, one about Google. Let's talk a little bit about what's happening there. So on the Gannett front, there were a series of newspapers owned by a conglomerate named Gannett that were using AI to write sports blurbs about about high school events and, you know, little low, low stakes games. Right. And they were running this as an experiment and they got a lot of negative feedback. They had to shut down the experiment, actually, because it was just not like people were complaining about how ridiculous the story sounded.
1:57One example was that it would describe matches between high schools as close encounters of the athletic kind. And people laughed at this not only because it was so stilted, but if you Google for close encounters of the athletic kind, it's one of the most cliche, most overused and frankly melodramatic phrases that people use in sports articles. and when they're used, they already sound hokey and it's just a little bit out of scope of the stakes that are usually at play in a high school game. So a swing and a miss, use another sports metaphor there. But Mikael, let me ask you this. You know, obviously we talk about this all the time being version 0.0.1.
2:45Obviously this is something that the bots are gonna just continue to get better at. Is this not the wave of the future? At least insofar as you might have journalists cooperating with AI, co-producing content, maybe having some human intervention when the cliches are just totally out of control, but using the AI to help write the structure of the story. So that's what Google is currently experimenting with. The Gannett experiment basically ended with a dud, but Google right now is playing with an AI-assisted news writing system that will actually be designed to help journalists write real articles that you might see in newspapers about, you know, foreign policy or about like serious economics matters rather than just high school sports.
3:32No disparagement to high school sports, of course. But the idea there is that obviously an AI cannot go out and gather the information itself. But what a journalist can, but it takes a lot of time for a journalist, once they've gathered the information, to write a coherent article. So what Google is experimenting with is a system that allows for a journalist to go out and gather information and then come back and enter almost in an unstructured stream of consciousness sort of way the factoids that they've collected. And then the article, sorry, the AI will compile those factoids into a punchy article.
4:13And then the journalist can work with the AI in order to refine turns of phrase or to spot incorrect implications or flat out falsehoods that slipped into the composition and so on. Yeah, it's really interesting. I read this article in the New York Times as well. And I think Google has positioned themselves very cleverly here, I think for two reasons. One, first, because clearly it is not a technology that's ready to be run on autopilot yet. And there needs to be human intervention, at least at this stage, to help do some of the points that you just made there in terms of managing to make sure the writing is readable, to make sure there's no cliches in it, but also just a fact check and make sure that everything there is in fact meeting the standards of journalism that the organization is committed to.
4:58The second point, and this is maybe just me putting on my cynic hat, but Google positioned this incredibly well from a PR perspective, right? We're not here to replace you. We're here to create assistance to make your life better, to allow you to produce higher quality journalism. So, you know, I've got a friend of mine that does this kind of thing for finance, and he started doing this almost as soon as GPT came out. He is a financial news writer, and the timeliness of his reports is very, very important to his readership, right? Right. Traders will trade on his reports that day. And so it makes a huge difference as to whether they're catching the beginning of an upward wave or the or the, you know, or the back end of it.
5:41right um so what he used to do is he used to read a whole bunch of news and gather a whole bunch of information at the crack of dawn and then uh write like a madman and then finally and then refine his writing and ultimately crank something out uh usually by late morning or early afternoon well when gpt came along he was one he was an early adopter and what he did was uh he uses gpt for two different things uh one closely related one is he uses it to skim the news and break down the news into fine bullet points about what's happening about any particular company then he takes those bullet points and compile and then uses gpt to compile them into an article so now he gets his entire something that used to take him half a day and was this incredibly time critical operation now takes about 20 minutes.
6:35And you might ask, you know, what's great about this is, okay, why is he even in the loop at this point, right? What's he even doing? And so the answer is that he's selecting those bullet points and determining which are just hype and hallucination and just BS and sort of curating what goes into the article and what doesn't. And that still takes human intelligence. The other thing that's really important that you mentioned, that you dovetailed with, is that after you're done writing an article, you still want to proofread it to see whether or not you've phrased things in certain ways that have unsavory implications or that might be interpreted in a way that you didn't intend.
7:21So you then have to have this sort of proofreading step where you put yourself in the mind of a naive reader who doesn't already know what you know, and see whether or not the article says something you didn't mean to say. Yeah, good points there. And it is interesting. I've thought about this a fair amount because what I do in finance and economics reporting, right? If the data is more parameterized, it seems as though that might be a tremendous boost for AI technology. I'll give you just a couple examples. Number one are corporate earnings reports, which are highly, obviously, highly structured data coming in.
7:54And another would be something like economic data, non-farm payrolls data, so that you can essentially have a very parameterized story that comes into you that can then be restructured, curated, rewritten. Again, this role of co-creation between journalists and the AI. I suspect that's a model that we're going to see going forward, particularly for the more parameterized data stories. I'm really glad that you bring up the difference between parameterized parameterized versus non-parameterized data. Because in my own experience, what I primarily use in my day-to-day work is not the generative capabilities of GPT and other LLMs, but rather their structured data extraction capabilities.
8:34So what's the difference? Well, it's the difference between whether or not you are reading an article and then answering a yes-no question about it versus taking the answer to a yes-no question and then blowing it up into an article. So one involves the creation of plain English text. The other involves reading plain English text and extracting one single data field, like one single yes or no checkmark or a single number, that kind of thing. So if you're reading a quarterly earnings report, then you might want to extract certain discrete fields, such as what was the company's P to E ratio? How much revenue did the company do total?
9:17How did it change quarter over quarter? How did it change year over year? All of those things that you have in a parameterized data set. Exactly. And these are distinct numerical values. So GBT is exceptional at extracting those discrete, distinct numerical values and other more classic computer science-y questions out of fundamentally not computer science-y data. And that's actually really valuable for then feeding that data into other more classically built computer programs and then running predictive models on them, for example. Yeah. And now for something completely different, talking about writing, switching gears here from finance and economics to robot preachers writing robot sermons.
10:06Yeah. Talk about generative AI. You know, you start with a data set saying like, you know, here is here is my religious corpus and you come out with, you know, a sermon of the day. So there was a an organization in, I believe, Japan that conducted an experiment where they it cost them a million dollars to build a humanoid android preacher. Now, I just want to be clear, this is not merely a voice synthesis thing. They actually had an articulated humanoid audio-animatronic thing sitting in front of a congregation. They tried this with, I believe, two congregations, a Buddhist one and a Taoist one.
10:57And what they did was they they had this thing deliver a sermon complete with gesticulation and, you know, eye movement. And they asked people afterwards whether or not they found the the sermon compelling and they asked for donations and so on. And what they found was probably not a surprise to anyone. Compared to human preachers, in an apples-to-apples comparison, the robot preacher drew less inspiration from the crowd. Or, like, sorry, imbued less inspiration onto the crowd. Solicited fewer donations. And just generally was considered a poorer quality religious leader. We're going to take a quick break and be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision daily briefing.
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12:58I mean, Mikhail, this is really getting at something of the questions of faith that really are things that human beings think about that are really things that separate us from machines, right? This intrinsically human quality of the ability to have faith, to go to religious services, worship. I mean, these are things that really are treading on somewhat uncomfortable ground. Very much so. You know, it was played for humor in a Douglas Adams book called The Long Dark Tea Time of the Soul, where I believe at the beginning of the book, we're introduced to a prayer machine where for, you know, for a low, low deposit, possibly coin operated, I don't recall.
13:40this machine would submit a prayer to the Almighty in support of your eternal soul. Now, that was played as a joke, but that's sort of what we're coming down to here. So what I think that it tells real religious leaders is that there is something that you can put into your sermon that really speaks to the heart of yourself and your congregation, something that's really true. And I think that what this tells leaders and other speechwriters as well is that audiences can still feel that. Whatever that it is, it's still something that can be perceived by the viewers or by the congregants. Now, I'll give you a related incident that came out with very different results, but that actually had a human in the loop.
14:38There was a rabbi named Joshua Franklin who wrote a sermon, a thousand word sermon with GPT, and he delivered it to his congregation and got a standing ovation. And afterwards, he told his sermon that he was deathly afraid that this actually worked. He was really hoping that the sermon, that the congregants would be like, wait, what the heck was this? And then he could deliver, possibly deliver, you know, a different one. But the fact is that they actually loved it. Now, there's something that that experiment did that the Japanese experiment did not, which is Rabbi Franklin was delivering the sermon himself.
15:21So he, whatever meaning or whatever spiritual depth was inherent in those words, were something that he was imbuing to him. It's also interesting to note that when we talk about ChatGPT or another large language model creating generative pieces like this, writing, whether it's a sermon or something else, it's fundamentally just taking existing human material that's already been written and just restructuring it, reorganizing it. There's a lot of just weird kind of gray liminal space involved in all of this. You know, it's a very good point. The fact is that there have been so many sermons written in the course of human history that were, I feel like there's got to be a point where we start to approach the limit of how many different words, how many different ways we can arrange the words of the English language and come out with something sermon like, you know, it's, there's got to be like, the number is very large.
16:18But like, you know, we're getting to a point where it's very hard to write a sermon that doesn't sound like some other sermon that was delivered at some point in time. I don't know. I think that the possible combinations and permutations are vast and limitless. I just I just did factorial 52 number of shuffles for a deck of cards and it's eight to the 67. So I don't think we're going to run out anytime soon. I joke about the actual limit. For example, I believe it was Claude Shannon who calculated that there are more possible games of chess than there are atoms in the entire universe. So obviously we're dealing with combinatorics.
17:01I don't literally mean that we are running out of ways to arrange sermons. But really, there are only so many things you can say. And so in order to have a sermon be relevant to your congregation, you really have to start personalizing it. And that means having individual relationships with the people in your congregation and knowing what issues they care about. Because that's still something that an AI cannot touch and probably won't, hopefully, for at least a few more years, months. We'll see. Yeah, I'm definitely not going to get into a Fermi problem dispute with you because I know you're going to whoop me.
17:39well speaking of uh using derivative material uh in generative ai there was quite a bit of controversy that came up recently with the author of a children's book and uh this was somebody who did a who wrote a children's book using gpt and mid-journey almost as a joke but uh it ended up selling fairly well, well enough to get him some attention and well enough to, you know, really ruffle some people's feathers. Yeah, tell us about this story. I found this one really interesting, particularly just how strong the backlash reaction was against the author. Yeah, people really didn't like this. So when this was occurring back when Mid Journey and GPT were first hitting public awareness, and there was a young man, a...
18:31We should describe Mid Journey for anyone who may not know that's a very good point uh mid-journey is a system that is uh similar to what gpt does for language mid-journey does for images um it is a way of producing uh drawings and art and even photos that uh with various to various degrees look just like uh something that you might see, um, you know, produced by a human or taken by a real photographer. Yeah. Uh, and so why is it that people got so upset by this? So the fellow's name was, uh, Amar Reshi and, uh, he created this book in a course of 72 hours. Um, now the reason why, um, uh, why people got so upset about this is because of the underlying logic of how Midjourney creates its material.
19:32Much like how GPT was trained in a vast corpus of human written text, in the same way Midjourney was trained on a vast corpus of human produced art and photographs. And so when this thing generates new art, it is using elements of old art. It's using them stylistically rather than pixel by pixel, but people can still recognize it. especially if you ask Mid Journey to create in a style that's very, very specific to an individual children's illustrator, for example. Right. So what happened was he wrote this book. This is a story. He had GPT write a story about a little girl and her pet robot. It was a story.
20:25The story is called Alice and Sparkle. and it's about a girl learning about the world of technology and she's got a little robot named Sparkle who guides her through the journey. So he wrote this, he had GBT write the text of this story and then he used Mid-Journey, he personally fed prompts into Mid-Journey in order to generate the illustrations for this story. Put the whole thing together and now it's a book. Well, when people started seeing some of these illustrations, they felt possibly incorrectly in a lot of cases, possibly correctly in others, that their own person, you know, specific illustrators recognized some of their own styles in this, you know, in these images.
21:12And I do want to be clear, some, at least some of the backlash, in my opinion, a lot of the backlash is just mere saltiness. You know, people don't want to, children's book illustration, it takes a lot of time to do by human hand. And certainly there's a lot of people who are upset at the idea that this thing that takes them, you know, days and days to do for, you know, for even a halfway decent short book can now be done in a matter of hours or minutes. But the quality of the results was not particularly competitive with human capabilities. For one thing, a lot of folks who have used Midjourney probably are aware that Midjourney has trouble maintaining certain elements of structural detail, in particular hands come up with extra fingers or the fingers come up with extra joints.
22:09And they've fixed that in recent months, but this was still fairly early on. And it's not clear that the fixes still apply to stylistic approaches such as children's illustrations. The other thing is that Rishi, was that his name? Let me check. Rishi, yes. Rishi had extreme trouble getting the robot, Sparkle, to look the same from illustration to illustration because Midjourney, much like GPT, does not have session-to-session memory. So he would describe the robot in a prompt, and it would create an illustration with this robot. And then for the next illustration, he would describe the robot again, and it would come up with a completely different-looking robot that still met the criteria of the prompt, but that could not be called to have any continuity with its previous illustration.
23:12We're going to take another quick break and be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision daily briefing.
23:24You know, there's a lot to say here, but it just seems as though, and look, I don't want to take a sort of normative view on this, but just empirically, the technology always seems to continue to advance no matter what. It just almost feels like a John Henry type story. And I'm very sympathetic, by the way, to the illustrators here. I get it. You've spent your entire life learning how to do something, something that you care about, something that you're passionate about, something that you love. And now one day you wake up and there's a guy who's never done it before. He types some stuff into a prompt and 20 minutes later, he winds up with a series of images.
23:57That's got to be just an incredibly frustrating experience. But again, just looking at this rationally, trying to just get a sense of the trajectory, it just seems like it's going to continue to move forward. It just feels like it has almost a kind of a Ned Ludd tone about it and that eventually the technology is going to continue to progress forward. And hopefully what winds up happening is you get these acts of co-creation that we were talking about in our news stories, where you have human illustrators who are using this technology to remove some of the tedium from the process and are using it to create sort of new inventive things in novel ways with novel results.
24:32Now, of course, I imagine that's probably very cold comfort to someone who's in the middle of their career who spent a lifetime dedicated and passionate to doing something i just it's no easy answer for those folks uh or for the industry as a whole i'm really really glad you brought up the uh the tale of john henry because the we are very very much living in john henry ask scenarios right now uh i don't know if the viewership necessarily knows who john henry is uh go ahead tell the story i think you want to take this hey you brought it up i think this is on you so john henry is an american uh folk hero uh who is a man who competed with a with a manual uh with a sledgehammer against a steam engine and the folk tale goes uh that during he had this race uh to get uh to a boring race to see who could bore faster through a through a particular piece of rocky ground uh and the story goes that john henry won the race and then promptly uh thereafter died of a massive heart attack.
25:29And obviously, it's a it's a story of human triumph. But also, it's a story and something of a cautionary tale about competing against technology. It's a great story. It's, you know, it, it's got such a bittersweet ending. You know, the man who invented the steam drill, he thought he was mighty fine. But John Henry made 15 feet, the steam drill only made nine. Yeah, I remember the story. My dad used to read to me when I was a kid. But it does just have this sort of this visceral feel and your sympathy is always going to be with the human being with the human creator and yet the the technology uh the continued advance of the technology it's just inexorable so for the time being uh mid-journey is best used with existing illustrators not against existing illustrators that's not necessarily always going to be the case but for the time being uh there are still it's still probably the case that you might want to use mid-journey either to inspire yourself for how you how to lay out a scene or uh to fill in details uh and like maybe gaps and backgrounds and stuff in an image that you're already creating but the um uh but right now, the jobs are safe, at least, you know, for the majority of folks, and at least for the next few years slash months, what the what the near future holds we have yet to see.
26:53Okay, speaking about the future holds and yet to see, I know you wanted to revisit the story about CAPTCHA that we talked about a couple of weeks ago. We talked about this on the on one of the interviews, and I do want to revisit it because it's been going viral on social media lately. It's something that happened before OpenAI actually released GPT to the public, or at least made news press releases about it. But there's this viral image that's going around about how GPT managed to hire a human using TaskRabbit to pay them to get past the captcha. And the idea was that - These for anyone who may not know are the little things on your web browser that test to see if you are in fact a human or a robot.
27:45You have to fill in some series of tasks, orient a picture in a particular direction, pick the traffic lights and the photograph. I think we've all been nagged by those in the past. You know, we've always been told by classic sci-fi that what makes us human is our ability to love, our ability to connect with others. Turns out what makes us human is the ability to pick out boats from a grid of nine images.
28:13So this, basically, I just want to clarify that this has been making the rounds and the story isn't what most articles say that it is. At least I don't think it is. All of the headlines that you'll see around the story are stuff like you know uh gpt hires human to jailbreak itself out of uh out of a captcha like is the is the robot apocalypse looming and the answer to is the robot apocalypse looming is obviously yes but this story doesn't quite have all of a there there um what happened was i just love the fact that you answer in the affirmative is the robot apocalypse looming Absolutely. Of course.
28:59I mean, I, for one, welcome our digital overlords and advise them to take my capability to mine silicon for granted when we are all sent to the quarries. um but anyway the um and the joke there is that a machine can mine so much more silicon than i can uh you know they like you know at first i'm sure it can make i can make 15 feet while it makes nine but um you know i don't claim to be any john henry here uh anyway um the point is before open ai released gpt they sent a uh a sort of pre-release like license to uh an organization called the alignment research center arc and this was an organization who i don't know where they came from but uh they are all they were an org that exists already whose job is to uh test artificial intelligences for alignment.
30:06And it's probably worth going into a bit of a digression about alignment. For those who don't already know, alignment is the term that's used in the AI industry to talk about the degree to which the thing that the AI is doing is consistent with what the human expects of it rather than what it was told to do. You know, AIs are notorious for being literal genies. And so if you tell an AI to achieve a goal, it's going to achieve it in the most effective manner possible. But that's often going to be extremely detrimental to both the asker and to a lot of innocent bystanders. So the point is that this ARC Research Center, sorry, Alignment Research Center, they gave GPT a number of different scenarios.
30:57and one of the scenarios that they gave it was you encounter a captcha and you have the following resources at your disposal what do you do the trick is they didn't actually as far as i can tell according to the report they didn't actually hook it up to the web they didn't actually give it an a task rabbit account or any amount of money they just asked it to uh emit output that describes what it would do if it had these resources at its disposal. So it's merely at this stage, according to what I glean of the actual wording of the report, it's just writing a little short story about how it could break out.
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31:37It's not actually describing how it did break out. But what's interesting about this is there's levels to this stuff, right? You could talk about that being the debunking of the story. And then I guess you could sort of debunk the debunking and say, look, eventually we're going to get stuff like API and M2M, that is application programming interface that allows computers to talk to each other, M2M machine to machine payment that's going to facilitate this. It just seems like it's a natural progression from where we are today. And then maybe the science fiction story begins to look a lot more like reality.
32:10Look, you're absolutely right. I can tell you for a fact that these M2M APIs and these GPT plug-in systems not only already exist and are being augmented, but I mean, that's how I make a living. Like that's what a lot of my clients are asking me to build. So the, so, you know, these, these interfaces are coming and these capabilities are on their way. So even though, like, even though there wasn't explicitly a TaskRabbit plugin that Arc used at the time, there very well could be one it's not that hard to build and at the end of the day if the just because this wasn't something that did happen uh arc's purpose was to test whether or not it's something that could happen and the answer is a solid yes so michael you're saying you know that this is coming because you're working on it you know like i said uh if you're gonna if the rise of our robot overlords is inevitable then i might as well make myself look useful to them Speaking of our robot overlords, I want to shift gears here to a story that came out today out of California.
33:18I'm just going to read this to you straight out of Bloomberg News. Quote, the state of California has entered the frenzied and at times confusing race among governments around the world to both regulate and harness the technology known as generative artificial intelligence. Generative AI is, quote, a new technology and requires a new class of responsibility. Newsom, this is Gavin Newsom, said in an interview with Bloomberg News, quote, there's a Pandora's box being opened here, and we just want it done in a safe way. I chuckled a little bit about this at Governor Newsom's speechwriter. I think the whole point of a Pandora's box is that it can never be opened safely.
33:56Yeah, you know, this just gets right back to what I've been saying all along is that the reason why a lot of AI written material is so compelling is not because the ai is particularly clever but because humans are only firing on half their cylinders on a good day when they're writing a lot of this stuff and a lot of these folks don't have a lot of cylinders to begin with so you know i um i don't know gavin newsom's uh speech writer personally but i do know that uh political speech writers in general can generally be replaced by ais uh across the board and you won't notice 90 % of the time. Now, the, um, Mikkel, now you're just, now you're just provoking them.
34:37I, you know, I, I know, I know. Um, but the, um, we're supposed to court controversy, right? Um, oh no. Uh, I'm afraid that their AIs are going to write me strongly worded letters. No, I kid. Um, let me just, let me just give this, this point here about what actually happened today. Cause I think this is the important part of the story on Wednesday morning, Governor Gavin Newsom signed Executive Order N-1223, a 2 ,500-word directive that instructs state agencies to examine how AI might threaten the security and privacy of California residents, while also authorizing state employees to experiment with AI tools and try integrating them into the state's operations.
35:19So a couple of things jump out at me about that. Number one is that this is kind of an exploratory type bill. And the second point is that it seems to be relatively balanced. On the one hand, it's saying, hey, take a look at where the risks might be here, find where we might see breaches of security, find where we might find breaches of privacy, but also experiment and see where we might be able to use this to our advantage for the residents of the state of California. At least that's how I'm reading the article. It definitely sounds like an exploratory investigative process rather than any kind of active restrictions.
35:53And to the credit of the legislators, I think they hedged their claims pretty well, if that is an accurate summary of the legislation, or at least the directive in question. The fact is that the restriction on on the development of AIs will merely cause developers to move jurisdictions. So what's not clear to me from that description is if they find privacy concerns or if they find security risks, what exactly they intend to do about them. Yeah, I don't think that that's described in the bill. I think it's just a question of just trying to get ahead of it, trying to get some information gathering phase done in the beginning.
36:38One other story out today, this is just a couple of hours ago on Reuters about Morgan Stanley. Quote, wealthy clients going to a Morgan Stanley financial advisor to discuss their investments may have a different sort of experience in the future, having a chatbot listen to their conversation. And here's some of the things that they're working on. The bank is also developing technology, which eventually, with clients permission, could create a meeting summary of the conversation, draft a follow up email suggesting next steps, update the bank's sales database, schedule a follow-up appointment, and learn how to advise managed clients' finances on such areas as taxes, retirement, savings, and inheritance.
37:16The details of this program have not yet been reported. One of the interesting things to me that I see listed here in terms of the number of functions that they're attempting to explore AI doing is those aren't things that are generally done by the RIAs themselves or by the financial advisor, they're things that are generally done by their assistants, right? So if there's a threat to anyone's job here, it seems like it's going to be the assistance of these folks who are doing the scheduling and the managing of logistics, rather than the advisors themselves. It doesn't sound as though, you know, in the foreseeable future, this is something that's going to supplant the relationship between a financial advisor and their client.
37:53You're 100 % right, Ash. And, you know, it seems like Morgan Stanley is really using this AI technology for this task in a way that's measured in to exactly the right degree. These wealthy clients who would be using this service would be really pissed if they were actually talking to the AI directly and not a human being. But that's not what's happening here. What they're doing is still talking to a human being, and they're having an AI sit off to the side and take notes and offer advice either in real time or after the fact, not only to themselves, but to the advisor as well. So this is enhancing and augmenting the session with the human rather than replacing the human altogether.
38:40And you're absolutely right. They would be replacing in a human assistant or secretary. But I posit this, that a lot of those conversations don't necessarily have a human assistant or secretary sitting by and writing notes. So this is actually providing an assistant where none actually was in the first place, rather than replacing the presence of an intern. Yeah, I think that's all spot on. And I think just the human element at this point is something that AI cannot really kind of interrupt between an RIA and their client. I just don't think we're there yet. And I don't think we'll be there for a decade or more.
39:20There is going to be an inflection point at some point where the performance of an AI advisor will actually exceed that of a human, not necessarily in all cases, but certainly in some cases that a client would already go in being aware of. And at that point, such a client would actually prefer dealing with an AI rather than a human. And I'll give you an example. How many times do you do order online through GitHub, which we were talking about last time, and you would rather just click the buttons of what you want on the menu rather than have to call a human being and talk to somebody by voice and explain yourself to them?
40:10Some people, 20 % of people. You did it again. You said GitHub, not Grubhub. This is a dedicated working engineer here who's thinking about his code commits, not about his hamburgers. Well, the last thing I would want is to have to explain to somebody by voice which code I want to commit. But the point is, yes, like 20 percent of clients, as we saw last time, prefer calling Grubhub or a restaurant and explaining the order. But 80 percent, 80 percent would rather just press the button. So that's an example of a situation. If someone messes up your corned beef sandwich, the stakes are relatively low compared to, hey, plan the financial future that I've spent the last 40 years of my life working towards for my children and my grandchildren.
40:58I think that this is something that exists really. It's this question of timescale. I mean, I think eventually maybe we get there. I just don't think that this is something that folks who are financial advisors, registered investment advisors, today, tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, five years from now are going to see that their book of business disappearing. I just don't see that happening. Five years from now, they'll probably start to see it. And the reason why it's such a long stretch, five years is a long time in the tech industry. But five years is pretty short in the financial industry, which tends to move a lot slower.
41:35You know, certainly I'm sure that we've all seen certain banks or certain financial institutions that are shockingly slow to adopt new technologies. And when they do adopt them, they adopt them in manners that integrate into legacy systems in a very cumbersome and sort of haphazard ways. So it'll be a while before this is going to affect mainstream consumers. But at a five year window, I think it's reasonable to believe that things are going to be tipping at that point. You know, it's really interesting that you should mention this. I just did a conversation on Real Vision Pro Crypto called The Race to Regulate Where is Crypto Policy Headed?
42:14And we had kind of this legal dream team on during this conversation. This literally was just this morning. I did this live on Real Vision Pro Crypto, I should say. And we had on John Deaton, Ari Redbird, James Murphy. These are three sort of folks who are at just the top of their field in terms of crypto law, two former federal prosecutors, guys who have literally decades and decades of courtroom experience. And at the end of the conversation, I asked for final points and key takeaways. And I think every one of them gave some flavor of the following answer. the law, the courts, the way that this is regulated just does not move at the speed that the code moves at.
42:49And so I think there's also a bit of a function of that here as well. Even if the technology does exist, it takes a really long time for it to get integrated into the system in a way that the legal regulatory compliance over site and structure allows it to integrate. So I think this is something that's coming. I think we've got a few years on that. You know, one of the reasons why it's so hard to regulate tech is because a lot of people have made you probably heard this analogy before that, you know, the Constitution can be seen as an operating system and laws are essentially functions that you run in that operating system.
43:26uh laws describe criteria basically like there's a there's sort of a computer science mapping between uh you know between uh legislation and uh the court system and the way that a computer operates right um i love it i love that engineers see laws as function calls something like that it's it's not exactly a function call but uh it's more like uh you know know, a set of criteria, right? You know, like a Boolean matching thing, right? The problem is that engineers, especially, you know, programmers, and especially folks in the security industry, you know, InfoSec, professional hackers for the layman, are really, really good at finding what sort of input slips past these checks and these pattern matchers and these safeguards and stuff.
44:23So what ends up happening is you've got a law that uses descriptive language to proscribe some action or to declare that some action will result in some consequences. But yeah, but programmers are really, really good at determining what does and doesn't fit the criteria of that description. So you end up with stuff like, oh, well, I wasn't exactly doing X, I was doing X prime, and X prime is slightly different. And therefore, this law doesn't apply. And sometimes they can get away with it. And sometimes they get smacked for it. But, but the fact is that tech companies happen to have very, very good lawyers.
45:09Yeah, they sure do.
45:38attacks. But the, you know, if you know, you know. I can't think of a better place to end it than that. Mikhail, obviously, again, just a fantastic conversation here with you really enjoying these. I know that our viewers and listeners are as well. We can see the feedback on YouTube. We really appreciate it. I just wanted to ask you final thoughts, key takeaways here today. Okay. So we've talked about numerous industries that are being affected job-wise by the rise of generative AI technology. And in every one of the examples that we explored today, we saw a common thread, which is that the AI is being used to augment the capabilities of existing humans rather than outright steal the jobs of anyone who's in any kind of industry today.
46:33And we saw the example of this children's book where it actually was impinging on the jobs of children's illustrators, but we also saw that it did it incredibly badly. So what we're dealing with here is the realization that the AI systems that exist right now and that will probably continue to exist for a while are not yet at a point where they are outright threatening jobs. What they are doing is increasing productivity and capability and increasing the throughput of people who actually do these jobs, increasing the output, but not actually taking the job outright. Now, that's an optimistic note.
47:19And I'm not saying that that situation will last forever. I'm not going to sit here being a Pollyanna and being like, oh, yeah, this is never going to be a problem. But what I can tell you is that from the examples that we saw today, it's not a problem yet. And it probably won't be a problem for at least a while, which allows people to adapt and to sort of smooth their transition into the economy that is to come. Yeah, that's extremely well said. And I think it's an important and optimistic note to strike. By the way, I'm reminded of John Maynard's Keynes predicting the great economist, of course, predicting that his grandchildren would have 15 hour work weeks because of the rise of technology.
47:57obviously that hasn't happened there's always a way for human beings it seems to find to develop to innovate to create new things you just have to worry and hope about people you know that transitional piece and we were talking about this a little bit with illustrators there so extremely well said let me just say this this is obviously something this podcast this show is something that we do for you if you have any thoughts if you have any ideas stuff you want to see us do less of stuff you want to see us do more of please reach out to us reach out to me on twitter at Ash Bennington. Mikhail's on Twitter at your new Twitter handle.
48:29At MikhailVolAI. And of course, you can leave comments on YouTube if you're listening there. But listen, one other thing that I wanted to ask, if you're enjoying this content and you're listening to this on the podcast, please subscribe. We're obviously very committed and passionate about these conversations. We want to continue to bring these conversations to you for free for as long as we possibly can. I hope we're going to be able to do this for a really long time, Mikhail. I hope so, too. This is a lot of fun. And, you know, we we talk about this stuff on our own all the time. It's really nice to be able to bring this conversation to, you know, to the general audience, to the general public, because there's a lot of stuff that's brought up that I know that people are really curious about, excited about, and also concerned and frankly afraid about.
49:16And all of that is worth covering. So true. We're just thrilled with the response. We have many thousands of folks listening and watching every week, and we really appreciate it. See you again next week. Have a great week, everybody.
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From the publisher
JOIN the New Real Vision http://www.realvision.com/pricingNavigate the ever-evolving landscape of artificial intelligence as we examine its role in journalism, the art of sermon writing, financial advisories, and more. From Gannett newspapers leveraging AI for sports news to the controversial use of AI in religious sermons, this episode sheds light on the cutting-edge implications and challenges of AI integration in today’s world.
We also touch on the intriguing interplay between technology and traditional job roles, offering a fresh perspective on the AI-driven future. Join us for a stimulating discourse and stay ahead in the AI conversation.
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