AMA with Raoul Pal and Maggie Lake

28:16In fact, in one of the recent conversations we had, we talked about it being perma crisis or poly crisis. That's right. That's kind of where we are right now. You just can't let your guard down. So you've got to make sure that you're listening broadly and to your point, right, Raoul, not listening in an echo chamber, really keeping your mind open and making sure you get a variety of opinions, which is always what we try to do here. Yeah. And step back and try and absorb narrative, understand why you're being told certain things in certain ways. Ben Hunt's very good with this is you really, really step back.

28:50Don't get involved in all of kind of Twitter's machinations or social media's machinations. Be an observer and try and understand it from a broader point of view so you can make broader decisions about is this a bigger thing than we understand? What is driving this? Are other nation states involved in this already? We don't know a lot of this stuff, right? Geopolitics, you know this much versus what actually goes on beneath the water. It's like an iceberg, right? It's a horrible world in geopolitics. Anybody who's ever read the Confessions of an Economic Hitman, which was the worst book I've ever read, I couldn't finish it.

29:27It made me feel sick in how manipulative even the u.s is in foreign countries you know and that death is part of their game plan and that's all big nation states so it's not just yeah it's difficult stuff and add to that um the misinformation including videos that are flying around on social media we really really have to try to you know vet trusted sources you know we're all working really hard on that but um i saw a report out today that 90 % of the images some people are seeing based on what's happened just recently are actually fake. So it's really, really trying time. Victor has also completed, we shouted out chicken, rightly so, but Victor's also completed the quest already.

30:14So crack on guys. Great job. Love it. Love that everybody's diving. Okay. This is a great question brian does raul own an air fryer i do my wife my wife bought one the other day i'm like what the fuck why do we need this but apparently we've never used it right we had one before she bought before she eventually then sold it on like facebook here in the cayman islands and now we've got another one in the kitchen i have no idea why i'm never going to use it you say that i use mine all the time actually uh really yeah i'm just um i'm just very I like my kind of olive oil. Yeah. I mean, could you live without one?

30:54Yes. Does it come in handy? It's like I don't use a microwave except to heat up milk to put in a, to make a latte or something. I don't use it for any, or, you know, reheating some, something else. That's it. It's one of those things that, yeah. RV Dan is in the chat. Hi RV Dan. We love RV Dan. He keeps the whole thing running. Can essential members join the meetups? Hell yeah. Yeah, anybody can join the meetups. We just have to hold them. So we need to sort the next tier out because my old assistant, Julie, used to organize them. We haven't yet given it to somebody to put it on their plate to organize the next round.

31:32Exactly. But we have had a few things going on, like the new platform, the Festival of Learning, geopolitics blowing up. So we're stretched a little bit with all of that, but we love the meetups as much as everyone else. They're so fun. I'll be down just after free drinks. rv dan rv dan wasn't asking about it i just said hi to rv dan that came from uh oh i thought that was rv dan no i love it drinks exactly no i mean we all know we're just after drinks come on uh no that was from i lost her now because you know how these things go um rachel thank you mario super Mario. That was the voice of God, Rachel.

32:14I know. So good, right? Let's see. Raymond asking, what are your top three favorite indicators to measure liquidity and look at adoption of the assets via transactions in top crypto assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana? The problem is, is all of this stuff is not available to you guys. So we've built our own proprietary set of indicators at Global Macro Investor, which is our global weekly liquidity index. Fed net liquidity, I think you can get on TradingView. Wait, we shared that. We'll go back and dig it up. You can pull it right up on the platform. There is a TradingView ticker for it.

32:57We did it in one of the shows I did recently. We'll dig that up. We'll touch on that. We'll post it. That one's very useful. Measuring activity, again, it's complicated. You know, I'll go to a website like Masari. You can go through some of their free on-chain data. There's other on-chain data activity to look at that. But what I did find is that actually price matches my Metcalfe's law formula very well. So in which case, technical analysis is as good as doing on-chain analysis, which is just a fascinating observation. So liquidity seems to be the best indicator of the space. If I look at our GMI Global Weekly Liquidity Index, that has a 87 % correlation with Bitcoin.

33:42And so that's pretty good. By the way, it is not accessible. And you do have your proprietary stuff in GMI. But Julian Biddle just dropped. I mean, you do share some of it because Julian Biddle, you've done one. Andres did one. Julian Biddle just dropped a fantastic update to the business cycle on our platform. And he goes through a lot of the charts that you guys look at. So I'm sure it's not everything, but it's an awful lot of stuff. That was in the plus tier, obviously in the pro tier, pro macro. Julian and I cover this quite extensively in our work there as well. So it is on platform, but it's not easy to get the data sets.

34:21But yes, it's easy on Real Vision because it's all available. Yeah, you talk an awful lot about what's in there. Not everything, but an awful lot. But certainly enough probably to get you where you're, what you were asking about. Brendan asking, if liquidity takes crypto and the market higher in the next six months, will David Rosenberg get his recession?

34:45So liquidity is a forward-looking indicator. So if you think about a slow economy, it actually means that the Fed are likely to inject liquidity. People don't understand this bit. So I actually think we hit recession, mild recession this quarter and next quarter. I've thought that for a while now. And I think it's irrelevant because the market looks through this, is looking at the forward looking liquidity indicators that have been rising since end of last year. We're going to take another quick break to hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back with more of the day's top analysis on the Real Vision Daily Briefing.

35:26I would just like to say to the community who's in the chat, we always say this, our community is so generous with their knowledge. Some of the questions I'm not asking because so many of our members have already responded or asked or replied to the comment and their answers are great. But thank you for doing that. I'm always blown away by how awesome you all are and the fact that you share so much information. um peter asking does ral think eth will reach 3 000 by by december 29 2023 for the rv collective season two competition there seemed to be a motive with that specific date i don't think i think i think each should have a strong end of year so i think it's you know it needs to be by deck 30th i think we need that's where the options expire it's all to play for it's all to play for I was going to say.

36:23Lance asking, with the multi-crisis we're seeing, do you see any shift in what are considered contemporary risk-on versus risk-off assets and instruments? No, they've actually been, well, obviously bonds because they've got their own story going on, which is the issuance of new bonds to pay interest on the old bonds and stuff that forms part of the everything code, which is the reason I think that we get more cowbell in the end anyway. Everything else seemed pretty consistent. We're early stage, you know, we're macro spring, crypto spring, you know, things like copper haven't yet taken off because we've not really got into that phase where the global economy is yet recovered.

37:03Oil starting to lead a little bit. No, it's pretty for me, it's it's really quite consistent with where it should be, according to the macro indicators. So I don't see anything driven by the geopolitical cycle that is changing anything. The only thing is the bond market being driven by excess supply. Yeah, which we've talked about a lot. And we are continuing, that bond market story has been very important and we hit it all the time. For those of you who come through more of an equity lens, some of our guests have just done a really good job unpacking what's going on. And of course, Andreas hits on it regularly in his steno signals that drop on the platform as well.

37:46So if you're newer to watching bonds, it's been great to have that. Angela asking, Raoul, what comes first, a BlackRock Bitcoin ETF or another retest of the bottom? I don't think we need an ETF to go to the bottom, to go up. So I think that's a red herring. The ETF, as I said, think of crypto world as this nation state, and this is a new trade agreement. So when the trade agreement comes, it doesn't mean you do trade. It means you can do trade. Trade, people will only invest in the crypto economy if they think the crypto economy is growing. So right now, you need prices to be rising for the ETF to be a funnel of money into the crypto economy.

38:32So I don't think it's as big a deal as people think. But when you look back, it'll have been a very big deal over time. And I don't think the crypto market goes to new lows. unless liquidity collapses out of nowhere, which is just not going to happen, because then it's just the death and destruction of everything. There's no reason for that to take place this late in the cycle. You should be seeing liquidity coming in the cycle, not withdrawing. Kurt asking, I don't know that either of us know the answer to this, will we be able to buy a real vision ledger? I don't think we can because we're giving them all away.

39:12so no I don't think they're available obviously there could be a secondary market on the platform for them that's true that's true now that you can all I think people you all know you can message each other now right I hope you know that you can sort of put tag someone and message them directly group messaging as well I mean you can get a whole bunch of people together and chat so you can find if there's three of you in Berlin or something and you want to chat to each other just create a group yeah well there's a Birmingham meetup that happens on the regular by the way we host meetups but People also have their own meetups and you can use the globe to go ahead and organize one.

39:47I mean, it's great when we're there. We love participating, but you can also do it yourself. And some areas are already very actively doing that, which is really cool. Michael is asking, I know Canada is small potatoes on the global scale. We love Canada. But do you have any knowledge of the economics and risk within Canada? Housing and consumer debt is a massive issue. How does that play out? And is it different from US government debt issues? Any insight would be great. I don't know if you look closely at Canada, Raoul. Obviously, it is one of the big economies. And generally speaking, it's the same boat as the US.

40:25in how the economy operates, but it has got the outsized housing issue, much like Australia does. And it seems like it's slowing down. Canada, like Australia, has been a beneficiary of foreign direct investment, which is Chinese and other Pacific Rim capital coming into the space that drives it, plus the tar sands boom, plus the commodities boom. So Canada is very much like Australia looks very similar. The Aussie one never really went bust. I don't know. I know everybody gets very bearish on Canadian property because it's so wildly expensive. At some point, it'll be a lost decade for property prices in somewhere like Canada and prices won't rise.

41:10But I don't know. I'd love to have an answer for you. I just don't know. Next time, Michael, roll up next time Jared Dillion's on. Jared has a long history with the canadian housing market i think if i'm remembering correctly it was one of his worst trades or best trades or worst trades or both um he has a long tortured history with canadian housing i think he kept a trade on for like 15 years because he just couldn't let it go or something insane like that um but he he can never not watch canada so come next time he's on and we'll ask him specifically about that as well um encore asking does the moving gold today mean something is about to break.

41:48What move in gold? Oh, I forgot. You're on a plane. Yeah, that's maybe unfair. Go look at your chart. Yeah, I mean, well, yes, I mean, the regional banks are still weak. Gold doing this tends to tell you it's a cowbell signal. It's like gold is pricing in something happening. Now, I think people like gold over geopolitical weekends like this as well, as a hedge. Yes. because you don't know what's going to happen and bonds aren't working. So what do you do? You go to gold. So my guess is some of this is weekend stuff. But look, gold is also driven by the liquidity cycle, very much like crypto. So a lot of people have been waiting for this to happen.

42:32So let's see if it continues past the weekend. But yeah, I mean, generally, I've been bullish on gold. It's like Paul Chitter-Jones was talking about, you know, gold and Bitcoin. You know, this is the right point in the cycle for these things. Yeah. By the way, someone dropped that in one of the chats on the daily briefing. And I said, that's exactly why we're doing the Festival of Learning. And that's exactly why we say that macro and crypto live and they live on the same in the same universe and platform here. because when someone like Paul Tudor Jones is talking about it, these are not segmented things.

43:06It's all one investing landscape, and we need to pay attention to all of it because sometimes people will say, well, why are you talking about crypto? I want to hear about macro. It's all the same thing, people. All right, wait a minute. Raymond, Nico solved the problem for Raymond, but Raymond said, just curious, when do pro all access members get access to the new platform? Everyone has access to the new platform now. I don't think there's anybody left. Is there, Raoul? look please check your bloody emails and also on the message on the platform there's a message telling you to go to the new platform you should not be on the old platform you're literally doing yourself a disservice so it's but you have an email that is in your box but if you can't find it i believe it's from ral um that gives you instructions because you do have to take a step i think you have to create a new password or something however you can also i'm hysterically laughing at this you can reach out to milton at realvision.com milton still lives ral despite somebody thought i tried to kill him i just said he creeped me out someone else said he was dead he's not dead reach out to milton yeah look reach out to milton or can somebody just drop the link in you need to put you need to create a new um email because it's actually a new platform so you can't transport over your new one but for god's sake you should not be on the old platform It is a different world on the new platform.

44:27So please, please, please go across the new platform. Yeah, because at some point, the old platform, we will phase it out. I mean, we're running them concurrently now as we migrate everyone over just to make sure everyone's made the leap. But not only is the new one much better, but at some point, the old one will be phased out. So if you see anybody in the chat who's still on the old one, and everyone should notice that your names came back. That was a fun one for a while. But yes, your real names followed you now. And if you come onto the new platform, you can message me directly. It's true.

44:57I'm shocked at how few people have done that so far. I know. Have many people messaged you? No. I told them to message me today. A couple have figured it out. But I told them to message me. Now we'll get spammed. Not everybody at once. I know. And I said, message me your questions to Raul, and no one did. I just don't think they know you can do it. Play around with it. You can. Unfortunately, Raul knows I'm messaging him. I'm also bookmarking videos and sending them to him, which I'm sure he loves. Um, let's see. Uh, RV Dan said, Milton is eternal. Milton can never die. He's like, you know, I think he lives in Monaco or somewhere.

45:35I think it's like Banksy. I've been trying to track down. So I came later. I came well after Milton was established and I was sure that I knew. And you said you guys created it, you know, as a way to sort of deal with customer service at first. But I don't know. someone's like taking this thing seriously and i keep track trying to ask people who's milton so that i can direct people and no one will tell me so i'm like i don't know what's going on it's very mysterious and it's very bang i know but i'm a little bit of a test milton lives off a yacht in the south of france or monaco you know he's a very influential character uh he knows everybody he's been involved that he's probably involved in trying to talk peace between uh you know iran and saudi arabia right now milton's a serious character the player yeah he's a player he's a global player i think he's also on linkedin as well i think there's an easter egg milton is on linkedin and it has his whole bio are you serious see if he's still there we have a lot of creative i think it's multiple this is my latest working theory and like the old og although i i messaged george and george literally i'm gonna like give you a peek behind the curtain i messaged george and i said who do we send people to if they're having trouble logging on because we get those messages in the daily briefing and i said is it milton and he wrote back milton is dead and i said no he's not and then and then nick said that sounds like what a person in a horror story says right before they get killed so milton does have a uh linkedin account yeah which is milton r but it used to have a longer descriptor of milton and it used to have a whole history of milton but i don't see it anymore maybe milton has made some enemies as a player and someone is uh trying to clear him maybe george is trying to kill milton and it's not me it's george maybe they used to be a full bio of milton but i don't see it anymore oh someone's after milton let's say Milton.

47:34I'm going to put my money on Milton's revenge. Esvin is asking who's in Texas. If so, add me on Twitter. I'm organizing an event. Well, just go to Texas on the map, go to any city you want, and you can message people and organize an event. So if you're in Austin or you're in Dallas or you're in Houston, you can find all the members there. You can create a group chat and off you go. We've got some staff there too. Invite them. We have staff in Texas, don't we? Yeah, Michelle. Get Michelle, Callie. They're all on the platform. Find them. You'll see them. You'll see them when you go to Texas. They're...

48:13Texas on the map. And they're awesome. They're some of our really fun ones. Would Raoul consider tokenizing the data that Mr. Biddle uses in the cycle update. I love that he calls him Mr. Biddle. Mr. Biddle, he doesn't deserve that. We are thinking what we can do and there is in how to democratize all of that data that we have. Obviously, it's kind of property of GMI, but we're thinking there will be some announcements coming. We've got something probably launching in November that will help people with business cycle models We're also thinking through templates. We're also thinking through some AI based around it.

48:59So yes, we are trying to busy democratize because Global Macro Investors are very expensive research service, but we understand that we can actually change the game for people by giving some of this data away for people in a digestible, usable format. So we're working on it. The first one that comes should be in November with a bit of luck, and that should be a game changer for a lot of people. Yeah, we're working on some other stuff to try to help democratize access to research that's usually out of reach or at least make it easier to find. But more on that later. I'm not even sure we understand enough to give it a proper tease, but there's some very exciting crumbs that have been dropping that I think you guys will be really psyched about.

49:44So we're always thinking, I think the thing is that we're always thinking about how can we get more information to more people? How can we pull more people into the community so that they are up to speed with the rapid changes that are happening and then they can be educated? because financial literacy, financial education is super important to us. So just be sure that we're always exploring things. Question, Maggie or Raoul, not sure if you are bourbon drinkers at all, but if so, what are your favorite bourbon aged in wine barrels? You're a bourbon drinker? Look, I like bourbon, but it doesn't like me.

50:23So we're not best of friends. So I don't drink whiskey. I'm even, you know, if you looked from my Twitter profile, the rum drinker thing has been quietly dropped because I can't drink rum anymore. I can have one after dinner. But other than that, it kills me. So I don't drink whiskey. You know, I love, you know, single malt scotch. Can't drink it. I can have one bourbon. Same. I went to Carly O 'Reilly's overpriced JPEGs kind of live event in New York and it was all bourbons and I was just taking a sip thinking I can't do this I'm just going to be I'm on a plane at 5am or something I'm like I can't I'm like Carly please help me and luckily she's got her overpriced gin so I had gin and tonic instead so that was fine.

51:11Oh I love gin and tonics um yeah bourbon but it is really, really taken off. There's some really interesting things going on. I'm always seeing these really interesting drinks. Our daily briefing crew, for those of you who are in that chat, very serious mixologist in there. They've got some really good recommendations. We do it at four o 'clock. The issue of drinks comes up a lot, you can imagine, especially on Fridays. And they've got some really good drinks. So you might want to see and post it in one of the messages or one of the group conversations um and see what they come back with are we democratizing finance or are we democratizing alcohol sometimes i'm not sure i would say maybe it's just fine living instead of alcohol there we go it's a lot of conversation lifestyle snacks wine wine fine bourbons yeah best restaurants i'm surprised someone hasn't asked you that you're always talking about spain we know um in terms of best restaurants but there's a lot of sharing of that as well.

52:09Somebody with the P. Diddy of finance. I know a lot of restaurants around the world. Oh, no. Lance said Milton is the P. Diddy of finance. And then Paul said he lives in my basement. Hell no, he does not. Milton still freaks me out. I'm kind of rooting for him now because someone's obviously trying to,

52:26maybe tokenizing bourbon. I actually know someone who just sold a bourbon company, Penelope Bourbon. He created it, right time. There's a lot of tokenization. there's a group that's in the Cayman Islands that's got a tokenization project I'm going to be speaking to about what they're tokenizing in premium spirits obviously dictator rum that we've dealt with and we've got this unbelievable 1980 dictator rum that's branded Real Vision that we've never been able to figure out how the hell to ship to anybody because we'd love to sell it or give it away but shipping spirits around the world's actually not easy it's unbelievably good rum some of the best rum i've ever had and it's priceless like 500 a bottle if you could ever buy it uh we've got that we need to we need to have a big event in cayman give it away and the people need to drink it before they leave that's obviously the solution to the but you need kind of cut glasses the big ice i mean this is good stuff really fancy um mario when will we be able to sign in with ethereum this is gonna have to be the last question crikey um yeah so um token gating token content uh crypto payment integration all coming sort of probably by the end of the month um so and if not middle of middle of november so it's it's on its way quite fast bjohn says you can send it to me i'll figure out a way to ship it out sure you will and paul is saying they're supposed to be paul's one of our daily briefing chat uh frequent chat members there's supposed to be an actual maggie lake drink served somewhere in florida i think christopher told us this if someone if any of you are in florida and you find that drink will you take a picture of yourself and send it to us i would love to see nobody can afford it it's such a rarefied it's such a rarefied spirit that nobody could afford it as it should be with that name right exactly exactly uh what is the latest i'll squeeze one more in because this is so fun uh But what's the latest NFT that you bought, Ralph?

54:32It's the NFT I didn't buy that I'm really fucking angry about. So everybody must have seen the graphic thing in the MoMA, which was this incredible moving piece of art, generative art. It's like one of the most mind-blowing things. MoMA was so blown away by it that they said it's been the biggest art exhibition that they've done in like decades, just from this incredible piece of art. So go on Twitter, look at Rafiq. So Rafiq did that. And I'm like, oh my God, this is incredible. Then he announced a project without the reveal and he didn't really know what it was. And it was around these Amazon tribes that he's been working with.

55:14And he was doing generative art. And I'm like, I've got to buy it just in case it's something like the thing at the moment. I stupidly didn't, I was speaking to Batsup, Yum, who's been on Real Vision, part of the 6529 team, he was like, I don't know about it. I'm like, no, I'm sure. And it was trading at like two ETH. Today it's like 10, because they start to reveal them, and everyone's gone, oh my God, this is some of the most incredible art. It's moving, generative, fluid, bonkers, beautiful art. And people are having these triptychs of the stuff and having it on the walls. It's like otherworldly.

55:54and I bloody missed it. So I might have to go and buy one, but I haven't done it. I know everyone's got stories about that, right? By the way, and we'll end on this. So one of the really cool things is in the Ian panel, there was somebody from Sotheby's on the panel and Nico quipped to me like, who would have thought somebody from Sotheby's would be on Real Vision talking about something, but that's where we are. The ex-CEO of Sotheby's is a Real Vision fanatic. Really? Yes. Yeah. So he's probably watching this. Absolutely delightful guy. And he's a Real Vision fanatic. Because all of these roads are merging, right?

56:33Like there's not going to be a divide between sort of traditional. And that's a lot about a lot of what they talked about on that panel. Really, really cool stuff. I had to jump for part of it. So I didn't even get to watch the whole thing. So I have to go back and rewatch them all. There's just like way too much good information. And I was busy chatting with people. So every once in a while I'd have to jump out. but it was great. And take your notes. And take, yes, and take your notes. That's absolutely right. By the way, in your notes, as you're going, if you have questions for the next AMA we do with Raoul, put them in your notes, message me, and we'll do it because we do this like about once a month, I think, right?

57:09We're doing this for the Festival of Learning, but we do an AMA just about monthly. And then occasionally I'm let loose on my own. Yes, yes, that's true. You gotta rest up for one of those. We're still thinking about that NFT from that one crazy. If you haven't seen it, you can go back and find it, but it's in some of our bloopers as well because Ra was in rare form. Hey guys, it's been so fantastic to be chatting with you all. So happy that you loved and found a lot of value in the Festival of Learning. We're super proud of the conversations. We learned a lot from it. So we're going to be taking some of the great wisdom that was dropped and continuing to thread it through the content.

57:50So be sure to be on the lookout for that. and go to the new bloody platform, please. Yeah, if you have any - We built it for you. It's actually incredible. There's the AI, there's the map of the world, the ability to message everybody, including me. If you overwhelm me, I won't be able to reply, but if you're early, I might be able to. There's so much to do. What's that? We have - I'm reading it. You finish. I'm reading that. Yeah. We can see a screen that they tell us. we have by popular demand the playlist everybody was asking about the playlist today around the comments who made it who made it this time dj george george not george the other george we have we have a couple of yeah uh yeah dj george came back for us uh and did it um and it was really great so i don't even know you asked for it and here it is the playlist wait do we have the link I think the link is somewhere.

58:51Yeah, it's there. Fantastic. And we'll continue to share it on the platform. It was super good. We're having all kinds of, Laura and I were going back and forth, another colleague of ours, the brilliant Laura, having a conversation about how we can have guest curators and DJs for an ongoing music list, Spotify list, something or other. So we're thinking about ways to get you all involved. You obviously are all really, have really good taste in music. so we're going to figure out something fun to do don't forget that in the comment section is the ledger quest the real vision quest go and take that because at the end of it you get a proof of knowledge that gets you into the ability to win the ledger device and who knows what else we can do with those proof of knowledge so just do that and do yourself a favor as well it doesn't cost anything it's nothing it's free it's just there for you as was the entire festival So I have an ask for all of you as we let you go.

59:50The festival was fantastic. There was so much knowledge and everybody was sort of saying they're going to go back and learn. Go find a plus one or plus two, somebody who's not part of the Real Vision community. Share with them, bring them into the community so that we can grow the hive mind and also do your friend or relative a favor by sort of helping them along with their education journey, because that's what it's all about. Somebody always has to introduce us to what we don't know. So be that ambassador and that person and bring them along on the learning journey with us. We would love that.

1:00:21All right, everybody. Have a fantastic weekend. Rao, rest up from your travels. Have a great weekend. Will do. Take care, everyone. Have fun. Take care. Join over 5 ,000 attendees for the largest AI event in Asia, Super AI in Singapore, June 5th and 6th, 2024. for. Edward Snowden, Benedict Evans, Balaji Srinivasan, and over 150 others will hit the stage, joining the industry's most influential to explore and unveil the next wave of transformative AI technologies. Singapore will become a vibrant AI hub for a full week from June 3rd to the 9th, with over 150 side events that will make for unparalleled networking opportunities.

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