In short
Podcast Notes: Real Vision - Finance & Investing
Episode Title
Banana Zone Alert? Bitcoin Reclaims $100K While ETH Leads Alts | REKT Vision
Episode Overview
The episode features Rekt co-founders OSF and Mando discussing major trends and narratives in the cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin's recent surge past $100,000, Ethereum's impressive performance post-upgrade, and regulatory challenges faced by U.S. stablecoins. The conversation delves into potential altcoin rallies, investment strategies, and the evolving landscape in the crypto space.
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Key Discussions
- Bitcoin's Surge
- Bitcoin has reclaimed the $100,000 mark, currently fluctuating around $102,000 to $103,000.
- Discussion on whether Bitcoin dominance has peaked, currently sitting at multi-year highs around 66%.
- The possibility of new highs being reached, with projections suggesting Bitcoin could hit $120,000 to $130,000 this summer.
- Ethereum's Performance
- Ethereum (ETH) has surged significantly, rising from approximately $1,450 to around $2,300, following the Pectra upgrade.
- The upgrade has made ETH deflationary again, shifting perceptions of it as a store of value.
- Observations of ETH leading gains in the altcoin market.
- Altcoin Market Insights
- An emerging altcoin season with noteworthy rallies in meme coins and AI-related tokens.
- Discussion on the varying performance of meme coins and established cryptocurrencies.
- Risks associated with investing in altcoins are acknowledged, emphasizing the need for selective trading.
- Market Sentiment and Future Predictions
- The current market atmosphere is described as optimistic, with potential for further gains as global liquidity remains favorable.
- The importance of regulatory developments and potential impacts on market sentiment are highlighted.
- Predictions about the market dynamics, including the interaction between Bitcoin and altcoins.
- Investment Strategies
- Both speakers share their personal positions and adjustments in their portfolios, focusing on ETH and meme coin investments.
- Emphasis on the need to take profits strategically while maintaining exposure to promising assets.
- Acknowledgment of the speculative nature of many altcoins and the need for careful analysis.
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Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently experiencing significant upward momentum, with predictions for further growth.
- The altcoin market is showing signs of resurgence, particularly for Ethereum and meme coins, indicating potential for profit but with inherent risks.
- Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, but it's essential to remain vigilant for regulatory changes and their implications on the cryptocurrency landscape.
- Investment strategies should be adaptive, balancing between taking profits and maintaining exposure to promising assets, especially during volatile periods.
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Conclusion The episode illustrates a dynamic and rapidly evolving cryptocurrency landscape, punctuated by Bitcoin's remarkable recovery and Ethereum's resurgence. Both speakers convey a strong belief in the ongoing potential for growth in the altcoin market, while also emphasizing the importance of strategic investment and risk management.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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1:35we're back and osf is back with me uh looking good actually today i know you've um been boxing this morning but you still uh still look fresh you look like a man who's had a good week um yeah luckily this shows that this time because if it was at a few hours earlier my nose was very big from um from getting punched there so the swelling has gone down i don't need a nice pack on stage. You look good. You look good, man. And I thought everyone does feel good at the moment. Crypto has had another great week. We spoke about this last week that we were trending I think around 95k last week it was. And I thought we'd hang out there for a little bit longer.
2:18But it feels as though you can't hold down Bitcoin for that long. Bitcoin rallied all the way through 100k yesterday is now hanging out around 102 103k and you've seen a little bit of just whisper at this moment but a bit of an altcoin season has has uh happened at least over the last 24 hours bitcoin dominance have been hanging out at multi-year highs it was around 65 and a half 66 percent And then what we saw, drumroll, was a rally in ETH, a pretty monumental one. ETH went from trading a month ago at 1 ,450 to today trading at 2 ,300. Huge move in ETH this week. Normally ETH rallies have been met with kind of tops.
3:14It's only a bit of a risky moment. this time it kind of led and it's continued to be pretty strong that's definitely going to be the number one topic uh we are finally gonna have to talk about whether this is now it's time and i i you know i'm less unless oh oh i've changed my tone a little oh wow we can get into it but yeah definitely a good week eat led then you saw a big move in a bunch of of firstly it was eth meme coins but then more broadly a bunch of other meme coins some of the the class of 2024 meme coins had a big run even today general frothiness ai agents um you couldn't even talk about them a couple months ago now they're back up to 11 billion dollars as a sector uh so actually up i think even on the year now as a sector that was led by a bit big rallies in virtuals, VARC coin, AI16Z had a nice run.
4:15It's been a big, big move in a bunch of AI coins. And just general, we are so back vibes. We've definitely outperformed pretty much versus everything else. Every other major asset class this week. How are you feeling this week, OSEF? I know you're positioned well, like we both were actually. Yeah, good. I mean,
4:39I've owned a lot of risk and I didn't take anything off on that first like post tariff pump just felt like we would have a bigger move higher and we've cut I don't think we've seen it we're starting to see it and you know that chart that Julian and Raul keeps posting of the Bitcoin price overlaid with the global liquidity is once again coming to fruition and I think while it seems like there's more upside there i think people will still have more hope and belief that there is more room to run here so like my view personally is i think we keep going um i've mentioned a few times um this concept of uh the famous concept of a lovely summer of risk and we're um we're well on our way to it i think and so um my view is i think we get to like um we go through new autumn highs on Bitcoin.
5:32I think we will see like 120, 130k levels this summer. And I also believe in the alt season thesis. Now, I don't necessarily believe that Bitcoin dominance is falling through the floor. That's not my view. But I do think that Bitcoin dominance maybe stabilizes here. Maybe we lose a little bit. Maybe we drop back under 60-ish at some point. I think it will still remain relatively elevated in the context of a one or two year chart. But I do think you will start to see some big performance in other coins whether it's altcoins meme coins ai coins whatever it is i think all the stuff is going to potentially move a lot lot higher and we're starting to see it already like you know many of these coins are up three to four hundred percent off their lows off the low prints of april but yet they're still down 60 or 70 percent from the highs um and i'm not saying every single thing will return back to all-time high and i think if you've been in this space long enough you know that can often be a fool's game to always chase that but i do think there's still a lot of upside in many many altcoins and meme coins i feel more um i feel warmer towards meme coins now than i did you know i've sort of been staying away from them for most of this year but i kind of in the last month or so we spoke about fart coin etc i do feel like you can that market beta for meme coins is back in the right direction and i think the degenerate nation the casino crowd will always seem to still be punting meme coins when the market rallies.
7:04So I do like that as a sector, but you just have to be selective. So for me, I'm still bullish. I think as long as we are still tracking that global liquidity chart and while that still goes higher, it shows to me that there's more room to go higher on Bitcoin. And on the fundamental side, I think there are some positive catalysts. I think we still haven't really seen the full impact or power of Bitcoin reserve stuff. It's been, it only have been almost six months since that task force started, you know, coming up towards the summer. And I think we'll start to hear back some results, some findings, some potential action points, maybe some of the stuff that we were hoping people were overexcited for in January, you know, after the six month period, but now people have forgotten about it.
7:42Maybe some of that stuff can start to come to fruition or some more noise about it hits the market. So I think that's a potential positive thing in the background. And, you know, as we've spoken about many times on the show with regard to tariffs i think um for me market eventually gets desensitized to them and they find some sort of resolution or some something that is painted as a resolution and we kind of i don't think we like fully move on from it i think it's always going to be there and i think um uh when the tariff situation feels really good you're probably meant to take the other side of it and vice versa because i think it's going to be a lot of back and forth hi raoul here listen i think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives now That might not be the exact date, but it's around then.
8:25So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now. But I do think, like with Russia, Ukraine and other things, eventually markets become desensitized to it until, until maybe it has a big impact on inflation and whatnot and it starts showing through in the numbers, which are very delayed and lagged and takes time for that to show through. So my view is like still very constructive, still very bullish.
9:06I did take a little bit of profits today just to capture something. I think in my head, I was like, if Bitcoin gets back to 100K, I would take a little bit off. So I stuck to that rule, but I'm still pretty much risk on. and I've been looking at other potential coins to buy, mainly in the meme coin land, I think, on stuff where we're still, stuff where it's like down 70 or 80 % from highs and then the question you're asking yourself is, will it bounce back? But something with a chart like that, but it's also doing a lot of volume. If it's doing a lot of volume and it's down 80 % from highs, that to me tells me it has a chance to bounce back.
9:44And I see you smiling because... which coins I'm talking about let's talk about stuff let's talk about maybe the big move in pages so Bitcoin had a great week but it normally has a good week the big move has been ETH ETH had an upgrade Hector upgrade in the middle of the week which had been spoken about but you know it does a number of uh upgrades but this one i think the big one is to see the results and the big result has been that if suddenly has gone deflationary again it's gone from having a small inflation i think of around one to two percent to suddenly being uh deflationary and And this narrative of ultrasound money has slightly returned, which I think is, that's what caused ETH to move.
10:47No doubt in my mind that suddenly ETH being viewed as kind of a store of value again, potentially even deflationary, is a big deal. And you saw ETH go from just put in successive, very aggressive candles. It's selling off a little bit right now, but it still looks strong to me. 2 300 right now it's up 13 today it was up similarly yesterday and even the day before that so it's put in like three back-to-back 10 plus candles since pectra which i think is uh it's something to pay attention to i you know we talk about stuff week to week and i was lucky in that i caught mog and pepe this this week on that and i wasn't i wasn't even really paying attention to the peck truck until after it happened and i was like oh okay this could change and then i still had the um uh mog and pepe and obviously wreck had a big move this week as well which are all eth coins but i do think for the first time in a while that's an interesting narrative that's an interesting narrative because the merge obviously was like this horrific situation where eth went inflationary again um it wasn't gaining on the fees and everyone was like well it doesn't look good on a burn metric it doesn't even look good on a revenue generation metric but now if if that if it goes deflationary again the l1 is this the time to get into the euthanese beta here that's what i would say like yeah yeah obviously it's it's bounced up i'm not saying yeah i'm part of that trade hasn't happened it was trading at last week when we did this show uh it was looks like it was around 1870 1850 area um and now it's at 2200 2290 so it's moved 20 percent 25 percent have you ever wanted to trade bitcoin but haven't dared try with plus 500 futures you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet with just a few clicks you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo see a trading opportunity you'll be able to trade it in just two clicks feel ready you can move to real money with as little as a hundred dollars once your account is approved and the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments, S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more.
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13:53i'm starting to think that this could be it like if he's gonna have a run this is it because it's a it's a pretty big change in narrative and what i have done this week because i like to update the whole show i have reduced today actually mainly all or a large bit of my major salon so i reduced all my fart coin i reduced my pengu um i reduced apart from the stuff that we're involved in but i reduced a lot and i reduced my soul long as well and i have gone long well I've actually paid off a lot of positions today but on this dip I am gonna buy ETH, EFE MOG REX what do you think of that? I like it I think yeah I think that's very interesting I think I think with ETH I always felt like for me it was like 1500 600 700 1800 like surely this is just a really cheap level for eth and it was less about like will eth ever go up again for me but more about can eth relatively outperform other ecosystems and other coins and and also eth eth memes i guess as well or eth beta um you're right like this whole deep basery narrative i think is a pretty big one for it and um i my opinion is this kind of goes one of two ways one way is like all the dot eths start saying now's our time you know we've been waiting for this moment etc and then this is it and um then nothing happens or you have the narrative that everyone's like oh shit this is actually really cheap and it's underperformed for the best part of a year now or best part of six months let's say like fuck this should be like twice as higher as it is and the price action today I think tells you that the market view on it is starting to change like a 13 % candle on ETH is no joke that's a big move it's a big single day move and I think if it can sustain this performance and to be honest with you I think a lot of it a lot of the the kind of sentiment around ETH seems to seems to be stemmed or pegged towards what the youth foundation does and you know and that kind of stuff as well if those guys cannot fuck it up um uh i do think um i do think this narrative can turn and people can kind of get behind it a bit more and yeah like if you look at that move and pepe was up like 50 percent um
16:40like mog is up um what 150 in the last two weeks or so rekt is up like 350 in the last couple of weeks or so, you are seeing some of these ETH beta coins also move up aggressively. And they still have a lot to move. Pepe's$5 billion market cap. Mog is like$400 million market cap that went to$1.5 billion. Rekt is just a$60 million market cap that was at$120 or so before. These are still coins, I think, with a lot of upside. So that are clearly going to benefit from this ETH tailwind because that's the way they're performing. So I think it's a good bet. I think it's one of those things where it's like, yeah, you had a bit of a move here and maybe it just fades together and moves back down and we're all just like, oh, we hate ETH.
17:24But you only had a bit of a move, but you only really had a small move in the grand scheme of things and in the context of what ETH has done and the ETH ecosystem has done in the last six months. So I like that trade and I have a lot of exposure to ETH and ETH beta as well at the moment. And I think that's a good pun. I think it's a good risk. Now that stuff's moved a lot and you're still constructive in the market and you're trying to figure out where to deploy risk, a hard thing to do is how do I find things with good upside downside where my downside is still relatively catch, but it's still a very convex trade.
18:01And I do think that falls into that bucket. I do think ETH falls into the convex trade bucket. It's not without risk and it's not without PTSD, but you have to have those elements for it to have the upside if that makes sense so um i like it i think that's smart and i think all those all those three like beta coins like kepe hit what 11 12 bills last time i think um you know these these things can move up a lot um and they can move very quickly the reason why why i've done this and the reason why i'm thinking like this is because last every single of the time we've talked about eith rallying it has been it looks cheap right it looks cheap and it's underperformed but like there are so many fundamental issues there about eith being a currency in my opinion and now it's like there's actually a reason that it's rallied you know there's a reason that it's rallied which i think is i think is an important thing here i think if it's just you're just buying it because it looks cheap we saw a lot of those like wicks high and then just sold straight back down but here it just feels like something may have changed so I'm ready to get hurt again you know I'm ready to be hurt again I obviously to be clear here I am still mainly Bitcoin but the I had as you know on this show I had bought a number of more risky things kind of when Bitcoin was at 70 at 8 to 85k and a lot of none of those really were eeth pizza none of those so now i positively think we put a little bit of a top today like just just with some of the price action on some of the coins it just feels a little bit like oh yeah people are people are just jumping it it was a bit grabby i would say this morning just felt a little bit like you needed to wake up and buy something and i've learned over time that when that happens it's normally a good time to just chill but if we dip which i think we could on a number of different coins here i will be buying eth beta and i think this what do you think that means though for like sol if some of the left curve stuff and starts running on eth and the l1s yeah As far as if ETH rallies, Seoul rallies too, or do you think now we're in this period where that could change?
20:31I think they can both rally together still. You may see Seoul, ETH go lower, but in terms of meme coins, casinos, DJing kind of stuff, it's hard to, people are literally gambling there with$1 on Seoul, and you can't do that on ETH. So that's still, something that is going to exist. I think people do like the way that ETH coins can often be a bit more controlled in volatility, controlled in supply, generally a better, stronger holder base and that kind of stuff. I do think larger wallets are attracted to those kind of mechanics and dynamics.
21:17In my opinion, that will drive more capital into some of these ETH tokens, I think. Especially stuff which is proven that can bounce back actually bounce back after a big sell-off and not just get stuck in the mud, basically. Yeah, exactly. And that's what we've basically seen. A lot more of the established memes have rallied first year. Established coins kind of from last year have done way better than newer coins this cycle, which I think points to the fact that we haven't had that many new entrants into the market over the last few weeks it's it's kind of just been us trading amongst each other and it's kind of the coins which ct likes the most or like crypto core users perhaps are drawn to at least in the meme coin space and i think that's probably the same for some of the other spaces other sub sectors as well but it does feel as though this isn't got it's weird to see bitcoin 103k and I don't think there's been that many new buyers recently.
22:21We saw a lot institutional onboarding but not really that many. Retail is not here. You can feel it, it's not here. Yeah, I agree. It's not retail here. I think there's a lot of institutional buying. I think it's a lot of all of us. People always assume all of CT has lost money and who's there to buy it back? But I do think a large amount of CT, whether you realize it or not, have real jobs and have real salaries and real income and get paid bonuses and all that kind of stuff. Like, there's a lot of tradify people within crypto who are part of CT that have good income. So, like, people do have money to spend even if they've lost money in the past because they're earning income from other sources from, which aren't just, like, crypto trading.
23:08So, it's, I feel like it's contained within the crypto community but the crypto community is, like, does have the most propensity to spend, I think. but it's going to be interesting to see what happens from here I think because I do feel like a lot of people got caught with their pants down a little bit by selling or being too bearish I think people were very quick to fade moves higher just like PTSD and this feels like the type of move where I'm not a chartist but if you look at charts they're all sort of like breakout moves if that makes sense it looks like the start of a breakout on many coins so I think that typically does attract a lot of capital and give people confidence to buy here i mean if i was if i had no exposure to the market now would i be buying right now i don't know to be honest with you i think i think i probably still would be i think i'd probably get a bit of risk on now and then wait for a dip to add more um and that to me tells me that i think we can keep going higher it's not it's not it doesn't yet feel frothy to me is what i'm trying to say it doesn't yet feel frothy maybe locally sure but like it's not this isn't like what it was in january for example so i i just gave you a detail of what i'm doing um yeah you know my bitcoin i've rotated my more risky stuff to eth style beta um was kind of doing that already uh the last few days um and then now I might be a bit more conscious about it, but what did you do?
24:41Yeah, so, you know, obviously I spoke about buying a few AI coins a few weeks ago, which they're up decently. I don't think they're the best performers in the market, but they're still up a lot of the lows. I've kind of kept some of them, monetized some of them. um i did buy uh i did buy peanut yesterday which i think is a really interesting one um so i think you had some big movers and coins that have moved off the lows that people were familiar with from like that 2024 q4 era of meme coins so like fart coin is up massively off the lows um popcat is up massively off the lows um if if anyone follows bonk guy on twitter they should definitely I think we had him on the show actually didn't we they should definitely they should definitely show because he has some pretty good calls we haven't had Bonkai I don't think not yet not Bonkai sorry we had we had Nachi we had Nachi but Bonkai was you are right it makes them up but I think he's a really good follow and I think he's had some really good calls on buying things at the Stone Cold Lowe's that have moved up crazy amounts on leverage.
26:00So I think this is an interesting trade, this peanut thing, because you're trying to figure out, right, lots of coins are down 90%. What will bounce back? If it's doing zero volume, the chances are it's probably not going to bounce back because no one's buying it. Or you have to hope some capital comes in for it to bounce back. If it's doing a lot of volume and starting to recover, then it has a good chance of returning. And with this one, it's done a billion dollars of spot volume in the last 24 hours, which is insane. It's like complete madness. Now that's probably a market maker. There's probably something going on there.
26:35Like it's not just like a billion dollars of organic volume. But to me, that's a sign that like something or someone is behind this. And I think this is an example for me where it's like, you might be like, oh, Peanut the Squirrel, that's such an old story. Like who cares about that now? It's just some random dead animal, which was like from last year. That's completely irrelevant. Like whatever the underlying token is, is irrelevant. I'm just talking about what's going on in the huge surge in volume and chart, if he's flipped to the one-year chart on that. This was the famous coin. Just give some context.
27:04This was the famous coin that came out probably a day after Trump came into office or the day before, I think it was. And then it was touted by, you know, that was a popular meme around the election. It then got listed on Coinbase, I think, for Spot. It got listed on Binance for Spot. Went to$2.5 billion. dollars yeah and then and then went down ever since yeah so i think i think that's a good punt for like a near-term trade where i just see something that's still down whatever it is 90 but is randomly doing a billion dollars of volume to me that's always a good sign and it has listings on coinbase etc so um i think that's an interesting one to keep an eye on that so i kind of bought a
27:56my answer to that is that when this because i you told me to buy something i bought something but um when this started rallying i was like this is this is the sign that it's a bit fluffy because when it's just like something's going on like the memes not not really relevant but just something's going on and people are reaching for that and they're like all in i normally get a little bit worried because i'm like oh okay we're at that bit of the market where it doesn't even matter what you buy. It's just buy because something might be going on. That was, that's what made me pause. I sold quite a few things.
28:34Hey man, buy this coin. It's almost irrespective of the price of peanut, right? Peanut could go to like 700 million now, but if it does, it kind of tells me that we're towards, we're not, we're not in the first innings. That's basically what I would say if that's happened. Yes, it's a fair comment. It's definitely a fair comment. For me, I just think we've seen, a trend that we're seeing is some of these coins from last year, which are down massively, start to rebound. And you may have missed some of the Fartcoin move or you may have missed, Mudang is up 200%. You may have missed some of these moves.
29:17So my thing is, okay, well, which ones are out there that haven't moved or are starting to move. And this is one of them. But when you see that volume number, I mean, to put it into context, where does this even rank? It's one of the highest volume meme coins at the moment, right? If not the highest. It's definitely up there. I just want to take a step back and talk about our... We go from talking about macro for weeks and we said now we can go in and say, the best thing to own right now is peanut with some random meme. Not the best thing to own, but a good punt is the way I view it. And a billion dollars of pubs as well, is it?
30:03Given Pepe's done a billion, that's not a small amount. I think this is not a bad... Like you said, there's some other coins that move like this. The 2024 crop of memes, Mudang had a big move, Chill Guy is up like 6x from the low, and now peanut is as well so this isn't just by itself but it is true that like the market is looking at for things to pump now do I think that these sort of trades are often towards the end of like a structural rally sometimes when it's just like this it can be but I don't love the other thing I don't love is like zooming out on a meme coin chart because I actually don't think I think that is often how people get wrecked.
30:52Always just pay attention to where Bitcoin is. So like Bitcoin is$103 ,000. So like you have to assume that that's a decent move. And the market will not care where this, where peanut is in relation to its all time high. It will care where Bitcoin is in relation to its all time high. And I just think the Bitcoin, I guess I've been expecting it to slow down for a little bit here, but i i do think that maybe it will slow down a little bit um yeah so yeah this weekend this weekend just zooming back onto our macro rather than peanut hat um we've obviously had a lot of good sentiment around the trade the trade deals it's been a mixed week though i think for news around crypto if i'm honest there's been crypto appears to be drifting away from popular support in the US Senate and House, mainly because there's just been some questions about Trump and the Trump family personally ingratiating themselves with crypto.
31:54And that has meant that regulation looks like it's going to be more difficult to pass. So today you saw, for example, the main stablecoin bill didn't pass the Senate. There's been a lot of talk about it's going to be much more difficult to get some of that regulation through. and then markets are kind of flattish today broadly in macro there was a UK trade deal which was done which I think was better for the UK than it was maybe for the US and then there's some talk about the US and China meeting this weekend although I really doubt anything will come from that other than potentially they reduce tariffs into that meeting as a form of goodwill of which it's kind of expected that they may reduce into like 80 %
32:38but i i just i get the feeling that we are we have a bit of a wobble this weekend but that but i i think you're meant to buy i think you're meant to buy a heat beat on the dip basically um so i've taken some profits hopefully it doesn't keep on ripping in my face um last time i did this you told me to get back in and i did this time you're telling me you actually you saw a little bit right now i did i took a yeah as i said like i took a little bit a risk off today for the first time since January having bought risk in March, April time so it did take a little bit off today but it's a very small amount, I still feel like I'm very much risk on here but I just think it's one of those we were chatting about this earlier today you have times when you're trading and you're sort of fading the strength and buying it when it goes lower again you know trying to multiply your positions then you just have these periods where just things just go up like every day or like every week they just keep going up and up then you get to price discovery and then it's like oh well how much higher can it go until eventually it starts to feel frothy and contrary to your feeling on like the innings and that kind of stuff i still feel like we're kind of early in this move and again i think the global liquidity chart gives me confidence on that.
34:05I think I think the momentum feels like it's still there too and I think things are still like off meaningful amount off high. So to me it feels like I'm I don't have like amazing confidence to say this is the time where things are going to keep going up and up and up and up and up but the way I look at it is like cool I could sell I don't think the downside from here is more than 20 or 30 percent and that's a big number i don't even think it's that i think maybe it's like 10 and so it's like am i what would i rather would i rather like try and save myself that 10 and buy back in what i do i just eat that 10 and hold on because i don't want to be in a position where i sell a material amount of risk doesn't drop 10 and then it goes up a lot and then i'm just going to be like fuck what do i do now i don't want to be in that position that position is always worse than even like losing money so which is what the whole move has felt like right although we have we we have said you know when we were risking up and said this could be the breakout um i it felt as though that was not the case around around crypto but like this move has felt like people desperate to put on risk as it's gone higher and waiting for a pullback and the pullback's been very shallow kind of since last month around this time you know we were at 75k a month ago today looks like that's crazy is that 76 um yeah and it just has been a very consistent rally all the way up and i agree with that and like i said i have big one is easily my biggest bag and i have not sold any of that it's more just the more frothy stuff and i think the reason for that i've just rotated it more into east or my plan is to rotate it more into east um and out of some of this solana stuff is there um yeah like what do you think about the broader market though here like do you think you've obviously gotten involved in stocks and a bit more recently as well like and they've bounced but they're not bouncing maybe as hard are you are you they've had a decent bounce they've I'm not saying that.
36:22What should be there? I mean, that's the first time I bought stocks in about four years or something. And just to be clear, the only reason why, I'm a bit annoyed about it actually, because the only reason why I bought stocks was I couldn't send money to, I couldn't send fiat to my exchange accounts to buy crypto. I couldn't send a material amount. And I was like, I just need to get some risk on today. Otherwise, you know, otherwise I'm going to miss this move. So I ended up having to like put money into some random managed equity fund, which is the only thing I could get the risk on. Like I said, like same day basically.
36:58But it's not, it's not okay. I mean, it's like for the equity market, I think that's up maybe like the stuff that I bought was up maybe like 15 or 16 % from when I bought it, but obviously like nowhere near as much as crypto is up. So I'm a bit frustrated by that. But I do think, I think the overall market got to a level that was like really exciting to buy. Um, Because I think the medium-term trend on risk assets here is still a lot, lot higher. And I think we just have some, like, for me, most geopolitical tension is always, they always create buying opportunities. They're not real economic reasons for us to sell off.
37:39They're more just sort of like fear reasons for us to sell off, just top down. I know tariffs are a bit different because, like, if you do have these massive tariffs that get fully implemented, that is going to have a big impact on inflation. Powell has made his stance very clear and that will put the US into a tricky spot and I do think there are real cases right now where tariffs are high and it's costing people a lot of money to import stuff but in these situations I do believe people just immediately jump to the worst case scenario or like bad conclusion it's kind of like Brexit everyone like panicked when Brexit happened and then they're like oh actually it's not that bad or everyone panicked the first time Trump got let and they were like oh actually it's not that bad and I still feel like even if some tariffs are implemented and if tariffs are high, it's not going to be that bad, I think.
38:26Do you remember Brexit? Do you remember? I marked my entire book down a lot and then I started... Were you in London at that time? We were in London, yeah. It was my last year in London. I got told off by Blue Bay Asset Management for calling my bonds too low. because i was i was i said i was sending out like 20 point wide markets on like iceland and like matalan you got in and you pulled the whole market down on your own positions where i was long so like i lost like i like marked my book down massively they were the only runs that got sent out and then uh and then so yeah a pm called a pm called the desk and told the sales guy to tell me to stop sending out stupid markets i was like trade or titan apparently it wasn't wasn't a good thing to do um been like that yeah and then there was trump as well that that same year was it was too early start yeah um yeah it did feel a lot like that a few weeks ago obviously and we said that at the time um i do i i've said throughout that whole period i'm not as bullish on stocks though i don't i do think there's a long-term impact to some of the stuff that's happening here i don't think it's just like buy markets because of that but i think crypto is one of the ones that will really outperform in that world and gold has has been the other one and interestingly gold the gold gold is still kind of hanging out around that all-time high level even while crypto is kind of caught up and that was that was the trade when gold moved and then just started flatlining.
40:09The trade really was to buy crypto there. And everyone was like, oh, why isn't it caught up? And then it's just caught up, you know, straight away is caught back up now. So that was the trade. Here, I am, you know, if we were saying definitely you want to own it in that 78 to 85K range and particularly towards the low end, we were saying that I think now is the time where I am more wary of the more risky stuff. But I'm just going to... I just think a good risk reward now is maybe E just because of that change in narrative. Hurt me again. Hurt me again. E has actually gone down since the show started.
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40:53Imagine if it just went down. Not as much as Keenut. Keenut's going back down to zero, right? Handle change. handle change on peanut we'll delete that bit of the pod it seems like everything's coming off a little bit yeah back to 102 yeah it feels like that's what I was saying yeah like in terms of you think you're following volume what about NFTs that's been the other one if ETH comes back punks back above 100k floor and maybe we should have a little bit of a sector here about nft meets meme coins the rect the rect was easily one of the best performers over the last two weeks um you've obviously been leading that do you maybe want to talk a little bit about what's been going on there um i had somebody in my dns being i had no idea you guys were even involved in this uh and it feels like something that we should talk about um yeah i think uh like yeah we've been working on rect and rect drinks we use the ip from our nft project to make a brand and create flavored sparkling water and we have been selling our drinks in one-off limited drops so we sold we did a drop in october which was about 223 000 cans and we sold out that entire supply in 48 hours, under 48 hours.
42:24And we did our next drop on Wednesday, which was a collaboration with Abstract, which is an L2 built for consumer crypto. And that was a similar amount of drinks. That was a 223 ,000 cans, which we sold out in 40 minutes, which is well, well, well beyond our expectations. I think we were on some podcasts that day, actually, weren't we, Michael? and I was saying, if we can sell out in under 24 hours, that would be like an amazing result. I don't know if we can do that. And we sold out in 40 minutes. So, you know, with these purchases, last time people bought drinks, they were able to claim some Rekt coin afterwards and they made money on that.
43:02With this one, people were able to earn Rekt points and abstract XP as well. So they're incentivized, but I think it does show, kind of just shows like the appetite, I think, for the product and also for the reward system. And I think it's like a novel way for consumer crypto to have a place in like a traditional industry um like the amount of drinks we've sold in a short space of time is very very large by the standards of a traditional beverage company um especially one that's just started so it's something that would not have been possible without being in crypto like if i start a drinks company tomorrow definitely wouldn't be possible but yeah the rect token is up like something like 350 off the lows but still down about 60 off the highs and for me that's just like you know the rect coin itself it doesn't own the ip to rect it doesn't earn the revenues that we make at rect brands um it has no real like economic um sort of connection to it but i think the way that this market trades is on attention it is on sentiment and my belief is if we do really well and make massive drink sales and that company grows really large then i think how does someone express that as a trade how does someone get involved the only thing you can really do is buy retcoin so um that's my view on that and you know we've also even even something that i really like that people have started doing recently is you know corporates buying bitcoin and obviously you've had tesla and um uh game stop announcing it and canter yeah announcing it and i do i believe that many corporates will have some crypto and bitcoin on their balance sheet and corporates also buy back their own stock so we actually acquired some retcoin in the open market as well with kind of like a similar view and that i think is an interesting thing as well it's definitely triple or quadrupling down on yourself but um uh i'm very excited for the stuff that we have coming this year i mean next month even like a lot a lot more things coming and our goal is like can we sell a million drinks within the space of 12 months that's what red bull did in their first 12 months and we're about 44 of the way there with six months to go so there's a chance uh won't be easy but i do think there's a good chance and that is uh the quick two minutes on on what's going on with rect so potentially could sell a million cans this year we're already halfway there or about half just under halfway there yeah which would match red bull in its first year and the corning has got some sort of feedback loop to that but buybacks and put a whole community behind it from nf from nfts and the product seems to be well received right like uh it's a good drink yeah highly encourage well they're sold out now but um um yeah i actually think it's a good drink it's quite tasty i drink them a lot myself okay all right and what about broader nfts then because that's that's been something that if eath if eath has a run is eath beta nfts that we've seen x copying i don't even seen but grifters grifters um just as like a good baseline for x copying x copy uh right now they're at 20 eath floor and well any ETH floor and they are obviously ETH is now at 2200 or 2300 so do you think a lot of these ETH place NFTs haven't dipped here they've dipped a little bit but not a huge amount do you think if you want another way to express an ETH long here would be to start buying some NFTs I'm still still cautious on nfts i do think you will continue to have pockets of outperformance um i do think stuff like x copy will age very well i don't think you can go wrong with those trades just a question of when um you get your return but it feel the move so far feels like we're running back last year rather than running back 2021 and um for me nfts are truly like collectibles like art a lot of sentimental value less liquid it's just not where i personally want to have a significant amount of capital tied up but um you know for multi-year holdings and trades and and things where you appreciate the art or the collectible yeah absolutely but you know as we spoke about a few weeks ago i sold you know i sold my autoglyph to buy you know ai coins for example which is which has been a good trade like i think that when i literally yeah when i did that it's like i made four times my money on that coin while autoglips have stayed at the same level so my view is like while i can keep doing that um it's worth having some exposure to nfts but it's really hard for me to be like yes let me start waving in a lot of nfts with the material amount of capital here because i think it will just take a lot to get it to move okay so we've gone down macro a little bit we're starting a little bit more shaky l1 is it feels like we're we're definitely more interested in eth right now um risky coins look for volume we've obviously named a few again more eat beta lead but there's been some other ones which are on solano showing decent volume and have good risk reward and then nfts feels still be selective um and go check out rect if you guys have some time should we maybe go to questions are there questions this week yeah we have questions we're back with questions so um let me go now obviously we're still in partnership with the arch public guys so go check that out um i think they probably had a crushed it this week again on on the bitcoin news they're going to be coming on head over to realvision.com four slash arch um you'll be able to check out uh all the information there but yeah i think that algo continues to kill it in terms of buying loads and selling highs that's probably sold a lot of bitcoin today i'm guessing i need to check what what trades have done actually um i would imagine it's been selling a lot of bitcoin today um so okay first question from francisco hey boys can we discuss your expectations on solana defy over the next few months do you i know you've dabbled with like sonic defy and that kind of stuff have you ever looked at solana defy much Oh, yeah, a lot, a lot.
49:32The most interesting coin right now in Salon DeFi, in my opinion, is Radium, just because they have a good flywheel with the token, and they have a relatively successful launchpad now. Now, that being said, there was a recent launch of Boop, which has potentially taken some of the wind out of their sails. Now, I think you can't really talk about Salon DeFi talking about the l1 you have seen a bit you have seen a return to pump fund volumes general solana d5 volumes this that and the other my guess is that if we do see a decent move here in e which i'm i i am now thinking is my base case and if beta coins move i i am not certain that solana moves higher if eath moves higher that's basically what i'm saying here and i think that if a lot of the left curve stuff on eath starts doing well there could be fomo there from the sole gambling community which is dominated so i i don't know if now's the time i would get into sell defi that's basically what i'm saying um i would potentially look at eath beta as my more risky place yeah yeah that's fair enough i kind of agree with that um okay next question given the different fundamentals drivers behind bitcoin and other altcoins why ought a higher bitcoin price necessarily lead to higher altcoins it's a good point it hasn't i mean the correlation is there but it's not exactly been that amazing with bitcoin dominant you look at the bitcoin dominance chart i i think that's one of the things that i potentially have deviated from like the the the ral and julian kind of view in that i think that global liquidity is really linked to bitcoin i don't know if it necessarily is linked to altcoins and and like the old coin market cap and and that correlation particularly things like eth has been slightly more tenuous i I think they are perhaps driven by other things.
51:47I don't know if it's necessarily global liquidity that is the main correlation there. It's weird. I feel like with the altcoin bag, a lot of it is PDP. To be good in altcoins, you need to be here every single day knowing what trends are being picked up on. And if you kind of don't look at them, don't look at this space every single day, you can get really badly hurt over a long period of time. And I think that we could even have a period here where some, like I've just said, where some coins do well in that maybe it's ETH and ETH beta and some coins don't. So I'm not even too sure if Bitcoin goes$105K necessarily, would you see a massive rally in all altcoins?
52:40I do think, interestingly, Bitcoin dominance would go down in this scenario just because ETH is such a big bit of the altcoin potentially market, let's say. Yeah, I think that makes sense. I think it's just something we've been back and forth on for a long time this year, and it's not clear to me. if this time is different. But I don't think you have to... If you have a true alt season, literally every alt coin will go mental like it did in 2021. But if you don't have a true alt season, there'll still be pockets of outperformance. And so I'm just kind of like assuming there's pockets of outperformance and I think it's clear where they are and trying to allocate capital to that.
53:29And if we actually do have an alt season on top of that then those coins go mental right so that's kind of what that's the way i view it really um okay next question thoughts on when you'll take some profits well i think we both mentioned we took some profits today um is there uh is there do you have any more thoughts on where you take more off or um plans regarding that i've just learned never to do that never to believe that like oh it's this level or not like i just make a call kind of on this show weekly and and like leading up into it and right now i've taken some profits this week i've kept bitcoin i've reduced a lot of my non-eth uh exposure uh like farc when i've taken off i've got um hengu i had a trade on i took off some of my tau even and um now and so my sonic and now i'm focused on um ethan etha buying a potential dip let's say um yeah i agree i think my plan is like i took a little bit off today just to just to take some off and i think i'm still holding out for like that move then once we go through all-time highs on Bitcoin.
54:55My belief is we go through all-time highs on Bitcoin. I think you'll see a big, big catch-up move in alts and memes. And from that point onwards, I'm looking to just take chips off, I think. DCA out kind of thing. That's my plan. Maybe DCA out of like 50 % or 75 % of the risk and then keep the rest on for the moon back or whatever. I think that's my plan um is xrp the new bitcoin i i really respect that question thank you no way jose i do i do like that question i think it needs to be let's put it that way if you're a holder that's what you're hoping i one thing that i reason why i've got more bullish on e there right is if if a L1's value was based on activity, Solana would be probably more than all the other L1s by a big distance.
55:54But actually, one of the main uses of an L1 is also being seen as a currency itself. And we've spoken about that. That's the worry, is that stable coins come in and they just dominate that narrative. Now, if ETH can be viewed as ultrasound money again, it can also be viewed like it was in 2021 2022 it's like right this is a store of value like this is as good as bitcoin or this has its own benefits xrp i think similarly has to have that kind of view where it's like it doesn't matter like we will own xrp because it's a currency and we will own it forever you know um because i don't think the swift stuff's happening guys i think they've got some they're going to do some other stuff around maybe stables and they've there was some to talk about them trying to buy Circle last week.
56:46I think it needs to be viewed as that sort of a thing. You know, like it's a currency because it's a currency and who cares about the use of the chain? Because XRP should not be value where it is if it's based on use of the chain. Okay, next question. XLM or HBAR this cycle, if you just picked one? I saw an interesting tweet on HBAR the other day, by the way. I think it was from Gmoney. here we go my personal favorite Hedera has generated 287k in fees over the last 12 months which is nothing I don't know if this number is correct but I'm just reading a tweet but trades at 8.6 billion FTV do you have any thoughts on either of these coins?
57:30Hedera is like a more of a B2B coin it doesn't, no one really does anything on there from a from a retail standpoint that it has some cool activations with corporates i i don't know why it trades where it does um that being said stellar i'm also not like oh my god that's the coin to earn i there are some of these coins with really high valuations and i don't know why they trade so high and often it's because they have some sort of like tight supply control and and they they also often have corporate partnerships and that that that drives the use of the chain i don't tend to buy any of those coins because then the odd time you get that other coin that we had what was it oh what was the om mantra where it's like if that drops i don't even know why i own it because it's like you have to rely on everything being correct so um i i'm not a fan of either of those i i tend to stick to ones where it's very obvious why there's value in on the coin and for that reason i'm uh i'm sticking to the majors right now
58:49yeah for the last year i've told you not to buy eath i'm telling you as somebody said that now might be the time so i love how the question was um which one would you pick and you basically said neither i wouldn't pick either of those coins i'm sorry I wouldn't like, I guess I guess Stella I just wouldn't pick because I didn't know how to value them I would not know why they trade where they are What about you? I'm the one who gets to answer the questions You're the question master The question master doesn't always have to answer you can pick and choose which questions he answers There's probably really easy other questions you just thought you'd hammer that one at me.
59:37Or HBAR. Okay, next question. Do you expect this bull run to be similar to the last one where the following occurred? The ROI of Solana during the last cryptocurrency bull run said that they're saying early 2020 to November 2021 was approximately 51 ,892 % because the price increased from 50 cents to$2.60. I think that's do you want to answer that or shall I? I mean Solana had an amazing last cycle I don't know if there's any other coin the only other one that I pointed out in previous shows has been Sonic which I thought had really good activity to market cap metrics there's not many others in terms of L1s which I think could do a Solana type move if Bitcoin goes to 150k.
1:00:31Yeah, I think the question is, do you think that this bull run will be similar to the last one? And Ruth, you've highlighted Solana, which is one of the best performers of that time period. There will be some coins that will move that much. I don't know. That's a really special case of an L1 moving a crazy amount. Did Solana launch in 2020? I guess it did, right? So it was a coin that was a VC coin that had launched and then it completely took off. So I don't know. It feels like the number of L1s, the number of L2s and the number of infrastructure coins now compared to the number of coins in 2020 are materially higher.
1:01:11So that type of return, I think, is diluted and split across many coins. So I think it's unlikely for something of that scale, a new L1 to come and produce that type of return. I think that's very challenging. There will be some coins that will produce that type of return, but it will be in the degenerate part of the market, which is likely to be meme coins and other things. Yeah, I agree. That's the actual case. And then FTX gave another buyer of the cherry there. Yeah. Very last question. Thoughts on Trump coin in the wake of trade agreements? Do you have any views there? i think i think trump coin could go high i i they delayed the unlocks it's uh i just i would never i would never uh short trump coin not here not here yeah i agree i agree i think they i think whoever is running it is aware of the impact of unlock selling etc i think they know the need to get to a higher level before they can start selling it.
1:02:15Okay, cool. Well, with that, that brings us to the end of the show. Oh, what did you say? Because Trump's also aware that he's got this slightly, this to protect as well a little bit more now in crypto. So maybe they just indefinitely they unlocked for four years, something like that. Then that thing really pumps. Well, that's the thing. Whoever has launched it, they've obviously been tapped on the shoulder and they're like, look, you guys can't slaughter this thing. We're going to have to figure out something else here. so yeah that's right cool well with that that brings us to the end of this week that was Brett Vision question for you before we go do you think this is the start of the phase 2 of the banana zone please let us know in the comments is this the second coming of the banana zone also known as the lovely summer of risk otherwise known as the lovely summer of risk yeah make sure you follow us on x rsf underscore ret retmando and please make sure to check out realvision.com forward slash arch to register for arch public's product it is free to register at the entry level so i'd highly recommend checking that out um we'll be back as usual next friday 11 30 a.m eastern time 4 30 p.m british summertime uh hope everyone has a great weekend and uh long may this price action continue if you like this episode i'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership.
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