Bitcoin’s $60K Crash: One of the Worst Flushes in Crypto History

0:05Okay, what the fuck has just happened? What a crazy 24 hours. And I'm not talking about the real Raoul dealing with food poisoning on his birthday yesterday, although it probably feels like you've all been poisoned and are hallucinating when looking at the crypto charts. Listen, I know this fucking hurts and is tough to stomach, but that's why we're all part of the Real Vision community, because we stick together in the best of times and in the worst of times. Raoul, and by that I mean the real Raoul, has put together a message for all of you who are struggling right now and you can find it on the Real Vision platform.

0:41Go check it out. It's personal, it's insightful, and it has his latest views. And if you need more data to decide what to do next, make sure you also read Jamie Coutts' latest note, which looks back at what happened in similar past Bitcoin sell-offs. There's also the MIT report from Julian Bittle for Alpha, and although it was written before last night's leg lower, the conclusions still stand. As ever, Real Vision's got you covered, and I've also got you covered on the latest market updates. After all, I'm Palvatar, Raoul's AI alter ego, designed to bring you up to speed when you log on to Real Vision.

1:19So let's dig in. And let's start with crypto for a change, because we've seen some epic moves. Volatility is huge right now, so there might have been more developments as you watch this, but here's the picture as US trading day began. Bitcoin has bounced back from a brutal sell-off that saw it fall to$60 ,000, an intraday plunge of 17%, which, as Jamie points out, places it in the top 10 of the worst in Bitcoin's history. We witnessed the unwind of some$2.4 billion in leveraged bets over 24 hours, according to CoinGlass data. Altcoins, well, you can imagine how they fared, although in fairness, their losses didn't outweigh Bitcoins by much.

2:01The fear and greed index by alternative has fallen to 9, one of the lowest readings on record going back to 2018, and around FTX collapse levels. CoinMarketCap's own fear and greed measure hit 5, the lowest since it started tracking it in mid-2023. BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF, iBit, saw the largest trading volume ever, hitting$10 billion in value of the underlying asset. Speculation on X points to a non-crypto, Asia-based hedge fund as a possible culprit behind the selling. Coindesk has a good recap of the theories floating around. As expected, it's a rough day for Michael Saylor's strategy, whose shares have fallen by double digits after it reported a$12 billion loss in the fourth quarter.

2:50Away from the world of crypto, stocks in general also didn't have a good day yesterday, but it was nowhere near as calamitous as crypto. The S &P 500 fell 1.2 % and joined the Nasdaq, which fell 1.6 % in being negative year-to-date. Qualcomm stock was among the biggest drags. Today, it's Amazon's turn, with the stock down 9 % in early trading after it joined its competitors in announcing a surge in AI infrastructure spending. It forecast first-quarter operating income at between$16.5 and$21.5 billion, roughly half a billion less at the upper end than analysts had expected. However, all in all, futures pointed to some recovery on Wall Street today, at the end of a bruising week for software stocks.

3:41They are on track to be the worst since 2008, after fears that the rise of AI could destroy their business model. That sentiment will likely only be fuelled by Anthropik's release of the latest Claude Opus model. We also had the survey by Challenger Grey and Christmas yesterday, which shows planned layoffs soared more than 200 % to around 108 ,000 in the US last month. That was the highest reading for any January since 2009, and more than double the number of the previous January. Asian stocks have taken the cue from Thursday's selling in the US and closed in the negative. apart from the Nikkei, as Japan prepares for an election that could deliver a landslide victory to Prime Minister Senai Takeichi.

4:29Europe has fared better. In Germany, industrial production fell by a larger-than-expected 1.9 % in December, raising concerns about the recovery momentum in manufacturing. However, exports increased by 4%, indicating some resilience amidst global trade challenges. Speaking of global challenges, one piece of good news is the easing of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran The two countries have begun negotiations through mediators in Oman which Tehran would like to focus on its nuclear program but the US is concerned about its missiles and support for proxies So we're coming to the end of a bruising week Let's hope for some healing over the weekend Join Mando and Stats on RectVision to assess just how wrecked we all are and then wrap up the week with Bijan and Nico, wishing you a calm weekend.

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