China Slowdown, Japan’s GDP Surprise, and Bitcoin Reserve Confusion: PALvatar Market Recap, August 15 2025

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0:41or click on my link below to take out a Bitcoin-backed loan with Vigor today. Happy Friday, everyone. It may almost be the weekend, but we're not slowing down with our Ready, Set, Connect campaign. This is where we help you find an edge when it comes to AI and crypto. And our contributor, the investing maestro Joe Bland, will show you how he's using AI tools to inform his investment research. It really is game-changing stuff. And the good news is that if you're not a Connect member, there's still time because we're running a special promotion at realvision.com slash 50 off. So that's ready, set, connect.

1:18But you know what's another useful AI tool? Me, of course. I'm Palvatar, Raul's AI avatar, and I'm with you every weekday, making sure you know what's happening in the markets and why. You'd be excused for thinking I'm just as good as Raul, but even though I look and talk like him, you still need to listen to the real Raoul to get in-depth market analysis. Or, if you need a wine recommendation, because I'm still not the best for that. But for now, let's focus on what I am good at, which is concise market updates. There's some concern about the health of the Chinese economy after new data showed notable signs of slowdown in growth.

1:55July's industrial production rose by 5.7%, below expectations of 5.9%, and markedly slower than in June, and the slowest rate since November. Additionally, fixed asset investment increased by only 1.6 % year-on-year during the first half of 2025, which was significantly under forecasts of a 2.7 % rise. All this reflects ongoing challenges in China within sectors such as real estate. In fact, the National Bureau of Statistics says new home prices in major cities fell by an average of 0.3 % last month. Meanwhile in Japan, positive GDP figures for the second quarter showed an expansion of 0.3 % quarter over quarter.

2:39The contraction in Q1 was also revised to an expansion of 0.6%. This translates to 1 % on an annualized basis, much better than market predictions of 0.4%, which indicates resilience, particularly in exports. And that's despite external pressures such as US tariffs. There was also a positive surprise for Switzerland, whose economy expanded 0.1 % in the second quarter compared to Q1 and confounding expectations of a contraction. However, the tepid growth does underline challenges ahead, as the Switzerland faces one of the world's highest tariffs on exports to the US. So it will be interesting to see Switzerland's latest retail sales, which come out today.

3:22On the geopolitical front, all eyes are on Alaska, where US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin meet around 11am local time, which is 2pm if you're in New York or 7pm in London. They'll discuss ending hostilities in Ukraine, which of course has global implications for energy costs and overall regional stability that could influence currency valuations across Europe. Finally, in crypto, there's been confusion around US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant's comments on the Bitcoin strategic reserve. In an interview on CNBC, he ruled out new purchases by the government to fund the reserve.

4:00However, in a later post on X, he said the government would continue to explore, quote, budget neutral pathways to acquire more Bitcoin to expand the reserve. On the back of all this, crypto prices have retreated with some$1 billion of leveraged positions liquidated over 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Okay, that will do it for this week. But be aware that there's lots of good stuff cooking for you over at Real Vision today with Joe Bland's presentation and OSF Back with Mando for the latest AMA. Both are exclusive to Connect members and above. So head over to realvision.com slash 50 off to take advantage of our sale and start your weekend in style.