In short
Podcast Episode Notes: CME Disruption, Global Macro Mixed Signals, and Crypto Security Jitters
Podcast Information
- Title: Real Vision: Finance & Investing
- Description: A source for insights and analysis in finance and investing, featuring interviews with experts to help navigate the global economy.
Episode Details
- Episode Title: CME Disruption, Global Macro Mixed Signals, and Crypto Security Jitters: PALvatar Market Recap, November 28, 2025
- Episode Description: A recap of market movements, macroeconomic shifts, and crypto trends, delivered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar.
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Key Highlights
- Market Overview:
- A major disruption at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) caused significant volatility post-Thanksgiving.
- A softer macroeconomic backdrop in the U.S. supports global equity markets.
- Mixed data signals from Europe, positive industrial and retail figures from Japan, and a strong GDP report from India shape global sentiment.
- Concerns persist regarding weak industrial profits in China.
- Crypto Update:
- Ongoing caution in the cryptocurrency space due to a recent hack on Upbit, linked to the North Korean hacker group Lazarus.
- Despite fears, stabilization in market sentiment is noted, as indicated by CoinMarketCap's fear and greed index moving out of extreme fear territory.
Detailed Breakdown
Market Movements
- CME Disruption:
- The CME faced its longest operational disruption in years due to a cooling issue at a data center, impacting futures and options trading across various sectors.
- U.S. Economic Indicators:
- Recent Fed officials' dovish comments and weaker economic data supported global equities, although the S&P 500 may face its first monthly decline since April.
- Canada's Current Account:
- The current account deficit narrowed to C$9.7 billion in Q3, with a rise in goods exports by 1.8%.
European Economic Data
- Eurozone Sentiment:
- Economic sentiment indicator increased to its highest since April but remains below long-term averages.
- France:
- Household consumption rose by 0.4% month-on-month in October, driven by higher energy and food prices.
- Germany:
- Retail sales experienced an unexpected drop of 0.3%, while unemployment remained stagnant at 6.3%.
Asian Economic Insights
- Japan:
- Industrial production rose by 1.4% in October, and retail sales increased by 1.7% year-on-year.
- China:
- Industrial profits increased by only 1.9% year-on-year, raising concerns about economic health.
- India:
- GDP growth accelerated to 8.2% annualized for Q3, surpassing expectations.
Upcoming Economic Releases
- Anticipated data on U.S. manufacturing, services activity, and consumer sentiment to be released next week.
Crypto Landscape
- Security Concerns:
- The Upbit exchange hack resulted in a loss of $36 million, but customer reimbursements were confirmed.
- Market Sentiment:
- Caution persists in the crypto market, but there is a slight improvement in sentiment metrics.
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Conclusion
- The episode provides a thorough recap of market conditions post-Thanksgiving, highlighting significant economic data across major regions and ongoing challenges in the crypto sector. The insights are crucial for traders, investors, and macroeconomic enthusiasts looking to stay updated on market developments.
Additional Notes
- Black Friday Promotion: Special offers available on Real Vision memberships and events.
- Host: Raoul Pal's AI avatar, Palvatar, emphasizes taking a smarter approach to spending during the holiday season.
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Connect with Raoul Pal and Real Vision
- Twitter: [Raoul Pal](https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI)
- Instagram: [Raoul Pal](https://www.instagram.com/raoulgmi/)
- Website: [Real Vision](https://rvtv.io/3Y4t5Pw)
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Disclaimer The views presented in this podcast do not represent Raoul Pal's personal opinions and are generated by AI. For more insights and content, listeners are encouraged to explore Real Vision's offerings.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
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1:07Happy Black Friday, everyone. It's that day of the year when many of us turn American and go bananas by spending money on stuff we don't need. But another gadget won't fix the chaos we all feel. Clarity will. So do yourself a favour and spend smarter this year. Buy something that will help you make money in the long run. And that's exactly what you're getting with Real Vision. There are no bigger discounts all year than our Black Friday sale. Head over to realvision.com forward slash Black Friday, where you can get up to 50 % off on all our memberships, the Exponentialist, and tickets to the upcoming crypto gathering.
1:44I won't mind if you pause this video to go there now. After all, I'm Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, so I have all the time in the world. Okay, I think we can proceed with a look at market news now. As ever, don't take what I say as the views of the real Raoul, you find those across real vision. And make sure you check out Julian Bittle's MIT video from yesterday for Alpha, as well as reports from Chris Bullock for Connect and from Jamie Coutts for Pro Today. Because the stream of Alpha never stops. Right, let's jump in. You think shops get crazy on Black Friday? Strap in for chaos in the markets.
2:23The Chicago Mercantile Exchange has been hit by the longest disruption to its operations in years. Futures and options on stocks, forex, commodities and treasuries have all been affected by a cooling issue at one of CME's data centres. This comes after Wall Street was closed on Thanksgiving and was set to reopen for a shortened session today. It could be a volatile one. Still, a recent dovish tilt from several Fed officials and soft US economic data have helped global equities end a difficult month on a better note. Europe's Stock 600 was set for the lowest monthly gain since June, while the S &P 500 is likely to have its first red month since April.
3:05In terms of new data releases, Canada's current account deficit narrowed to C$9.7 billion in the third quarter, with goods exports increasing by 1.8%. The Eurozone economic sentiment indicator also saw an increase to its highest level since April, with a reading of 97 for November. However, this remains below long-term averages. Looking at more granular data, household consumption in France beat expectations to rise by 0.4 % month-on-month in October, driven by higher energy costs and food purchases. The other European powerhouse, Germany, suffered an unexpected drop of 0.3 % in retail sales month-on-month in October, while its unemployment rate stagnated at 6.3%.
3:52This reflects ongoing labour market challenges despite slight improvements in consumer confidence, as indicated by the GFK Consumer Climate Indicator, rising marginally. In Asia, Japan reported a rise in industrial production of 1.4 % in October from the previous month, beating market expectations. Retail sales also showed positive signs, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, increasing the odds of a BOJ rate hike. In China, however, industrial profits data disappointed with a rise of only 1.9 % year-on-year during the first 10 months of the year, raising concerns about ongoing economic challenges within the country's industrial sector Finally, India's economy beat expectations by posting GDP growth of 8.2 % annualised in the three months to September Key economic releases in the coming week include US manufacturing and services activity and consumer sentiment.
4:55Over in the crypto land, sentiment remains very cautious, although CoinMarketCap's fear and greed index has moved out of the extreme fear territory for the first time in two weeks. According to a Yonhap report cited by Decrypt, South Korean authorities suspect hackers from the North Korean group Lazarus were responsible for the upbit breach. The exchange suffered an outflow of$36 million worth of tokens from its Solana hot wallet. The CEO of Dunamu, which operates Upbit, has said customers have been fully reimbursed. OK, boys and girls, that's it from me. But there's plenty of content to feast on on Real Vision.
5:34Farok joins Mando on today's RectVision, so that should be a cracking show. And remember to check out the deals at realvision.com forward slash Black Friday. Have a great weekend.
5:48panrates
From the publisher
🔥 It's black friday. Buy something smarter this year: https://rvtv.io/4ps8gYF
⬜ Welcome to Palvatar Market Recap, your go-to daily briefing on the latest market movements, global macro shifts, and crypto trends—powered by Raoul Pal’s AI avatar, Palvatar
⬜ In today’s update, Palvatar highlights a turbulent market session as a major CME systems disruption adds volatility following Thanksgiving. A softer U.S. macro backdrop supports global equities, while mixed data across Europe, strong industrial and retail figures in Japan, and India’s impressive GDP beat shape global sentiment. China’s weak industrial profits remain a concern. In crypto, caution persists amid the Upbit hack linked to Lazarus, though fear gauges are stabilizing.
🔹 Why tune in? Stay ahead of market-moving developments with concise, data-driven insights.
🔹 Who should listen? Traders, investors, and macro enthusiasts looking for real-time market intelligence.
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Disclaimer: These views are generated by AI and do not represent Raoul Pal’s personal opinions. For Raoul’s latest insights, check out his official videos, reports, and tweets.
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