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Real Vision Podcast Episode Notes: Crypto Flies to the Banana Zone REKT Vision ft. Raoul Pal
Episode Overview In this engaging episode of the Real Vision Podcast, co-founders of Canary Labs and rektguy, Ovie "OSF" Faruq and Michael "Mando" Anderson, join Raoul Pal to discuss the significant narratives driving the cryptocurrency market. The conversation touches on Donald Trump’s election as a pro-crypto candidate, recent Federal Reserve rate cuts, and the remarkable rallies of Bitcoin, Solana, and Ethereum.
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Key Topics Discussed
- The Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election
- Trump's Election Victory: Seen as a positive catalyst for crypto, with expectations for increased industry acceptance.
- Pro-Crypto Candidates: Over 250 pro-crypto candidates elected, suggesting a favorable political environment for future regulation.
- Market Trends and Technical Analysis
- Bitcoin's All-Time High: Bitcoin reaching an all-time high of $76K, with predictions for further growth.
- Rally Predictions:
- Potential for a larger 2017-style year-end rally due to increased liquidity.
- Discussion about the timing of market reactions to election outcomes and expected regulatory changes.
- Liquidity and Market Flows
- Liquidity Sources: Notable liquidity injection from China ($8 trillion) anticipated to influence market trends.
- Regulatory Environment: Discussion on how the regulatory actions post-election may affect market liquidity and investor confidence.
- Looking Ahead
- Future Predictions:
- Bitcoin as a potential strategic reserve currency for the U.S. government.
- Anticipated growth in tokenization and DeFi policies in the coming months.
- Investment Strategies
- Bullish Outlook on ETH and Solana: With speculation on increased institutional interest and market activity.
- Caution Against Meme Coins: Warning about the risks associated with meme coin trading and the importance of not compromising core holdings for speculative gains.
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Notable Quotes
- "We probably won't see him for… but I think we are all super happy now going into this."
- "If we think about what could be if this were the case… Bitcoin's the number one individual, most bullish thing."
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Key Takeaways
- Political Landscape: The pro-crypto political landscape in the U.S. could usher in a new era of growth for digital assets.
- Market Dynamics: Increased liquidity and regulatory clarity may lead to significant rallies in the crypto market.
- Investment Caution: Investors should remain cautious about speculative assets and focus on solid foundational investments.
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Conclusion This episode of Real Vision offers a comprehensive analysis of the evolving cryptocurrency landscape post-election, highlighting optimism for market growth driven by political factors, liquidity, and potential regulatory changes. Raoul Pal, OSF, and Mando provide insights that could guide investors in navigating this dynamic environment as they prepare for anticipated market movements in the coming months.
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For further information, check out [Real Vision](https://www.realvision.com) and subscribe for more insightful financial content.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Do you think you know who will win the presidential election? Or how many seats the Democrats or Republicans will win in the House or Senate? Well, there's finally a legal way to bet on the outcome of these elections via a platform called Kalshi. Kalshi is the first legal exchange where you can bet on any event, including but not limited to elections. Kalshi went to court and won legal approval for election betting for the first time in over 100 years. They have markets on who will win the presidential election, who will control the House and Senate, who will win swing states, and more. CalSheet is already being used by hundreds of thousands of people and has facilitated over$1 billion worth of trades.
0:40Let's take an example. Right now, Trump and Kamala are trading about 50-50, meaning if you place a bet on either, you will double your money if they end up winning. That's pretty good. So put your money where your mouth is and sign up using my link in the description. and the first 500 traders who deposit$100 will get a free$20 credit. Hi everyone, I'm Raoul Pal, the CEO and co-founder of Real Vision. Here at Real Vision, we're committed to give you the best knowledge, tools and network to help you succeed in your financial future. If you're enjoying this podcast, please take a moment to give it a five-star rating.
1:16It truly helps us continue to bring top-tier content. Thank you so much.
1:29Well, hello again for another episode of Wrecked Vision. Yes, as you know, Crypto's Father Christmas is back again. With the banana. With the banana. That's the banana man. Of all the bananas you could pick, you just picked like a one-inch banana. Well, I'm sorry, you know. Some of us don't have such big bananas.
1:56actually Julian Bittle sent that to me. Okay. So I'm not going to insult the size of his banana. As soon as I knew that Raul was coming on the show, I knew that we were about to hit all time highs. He seems to only come on, on the good days and on the bad days. It's me and OSF picking up the pieces, but I think we are all super happy now going into this. We probably won't see him for, well, actually maybe we'll see you every single successive week for the next, the next few weeks. I'm just a goal hanger. I'll just take, come in, take the glory, pretend it was something to do with me, then fuck off.
2:30Hey, I hope you enjoyed the episode. If you want to dive deeper and really dig into what's going on and how to understand it, then grab my everything code PDF for free. Just hit the link in the description below. You're going to love it. I'm sure it's going to really help you. Exactly. Exactly. I respect that. I respect that. At least I'm honest. Okay, well, what a week. What a week for crypto. I do think if you have been watching the show for the last few months where we have, you know, we've really gone through this chop together. We did say that this was going to be the final period that could take us through it.
3:09This was going to be the one bit of impetus that could break through that all time high level, which we were knocking out, I think a dozen times over the course of the last 10 months. and then finally it happened uh and obviously i think everyone knows what happened it was the election we ended up seeing um a fairly blowout win for for trump and for the republican party in general uh winning the senate and looks like most likely to win the house as well what do you guys think here this is just a um it's been a long long road but i think we're glad to see the other other side of it ral i guess you were kind of predicting around this time it would happen as well.
3:47Yeah, I mean, look, seasonally, it happens. Almost whoever wins the election, using the everything code cycle, we're in the peak debt refi cycle, so you need liquidity to come in. I actually did the maths in Global Mac Investor over the weekend. China's added$8 trillion of liquidity via both state sector and bar m2 i mean people don't realize so liquidity is back um so yeah everything was in place and then we've got this other thing which we'll talk about how the cycle plays out but we've taken the big overhang off which is like who's allowed to do what and you know that is a big deal and there has to be a re-rating not just on liquidity, but a potential re-rating of the sector.
4:39So it's a big deal. Yeah. How long do you think it takes for that to show through in markets? Is there a lag time? Well, I don't know, because traditional markets, they tend to forward price it as soon as it gets to the news. Then you get a corrected period. But because the flows won't come until the new year, and we don't even have a new government in, So really, the flows don't come until later, because you actually need to see the regulators. It's not like Goldman Sachs going to go, oh, great, Trump's in. We're all free to do what we want. They won't. They will have to wait until we're giving you regulation, et cetera.
5:19So it kind of increases the odds for me of a larger 2017-style year-end rally next year, as opposed to the stunted cycle. Now, it depends because the Fed trumps all. If they remove liquidity earlier in the cycle, it's game over. So there's this balance here. But I think there's the potential for the blow-off cycle top because it allows other people to come in. Yeah, it does feel as though even, I mean, if you've been following crypto even for the last few days, it does feel as though you had that beach ball underwater feeling where suddenly this happened. And a lot of firms already, maybe not outside of crypto, like you said, the banks will probably wait for the actual crypto policy to be enacted, which will probably be like a next year thing.
6:07But you're starting to see rumors of new tokens, people like Metamask thinking about dropping a token. OpenSea suddenly came out, like US-based firms in crypto suddenly feel like the shackles are off. I think everyone there has breathed a sigh of relief. Obviously, it's not just a Trump thing. It's a, it's a, the number of pro crypto candidates that were elected into the Senate, for example, was I think just over 250, which is a huge, huge win, I think, for the crypto space in general. And I think a lot of people within crypto are going to start taking, like I said, some of these risks that they were waiting on for a while.
6:41We're going to see a lot of token launches, I think, in Q4, a lot of airdrops. I think that's going to be a big, big meta that comes back. Maybe, I mean, leaving politics aside, what do you think are the things you are most excited about that could potentially come over the next 12 to 18 months? Firstly, do you think some of these things that he necessarily promised could happen? Do you think we're going to get a Bitcoin Act? Do you think we're going to get bipartisan policy get pushed through? Do you think we're going to get tokenization-style policy, DeFi? When and how do you think this is now going to happen?
7:18that's going to be the, the Bitcoin stuff is going to be, in my opinion, is like the biggest fundamental upside narrative for this cycle. And that's going to be like, I think the show me story because to be fair to Trump, all he said was national reserve currency. And then I think Cynthia Loomis is talking about the US actually buying Bitcoin. But any of those two things is like, in my opinion, like the number one individual, most bullish thing for, specifically for Bitcoin, but I think it will be good for crypto overall. Because imagine a world where the US is, which by the way is like, what, the second or third largest holder of Bitcoin.
7:53They're probably going about$17 billion worth of Bitcoin right now. And imagine they say, oh yeah, we're just going to keep all this Bitcoin. We're not going to sell any of the Silk Road stuff. And by the way, we might buy some more Bitcoin and add to it as a strategic reserve currency. Every single sovereign state now has a strategic disadvantage to the US. And every single sovereign state now basically has to fomo into Bitcoin, in my opinion. And that alone is the sort of thing that I think can send it to like 250K plus, because it's just like a whole nother level of like demand, which is magnitudes greater than what we've seen with ETF stuff.
8:28So how aggressive Trump is on that or whether he creates like a, I don't know, like a crypto task force or whatever it is in terms of enforcing that and acting on it, I think is the thing that could really make things go a lot, lot higher. I don't think it's the only thing that needs to happen for us to go higher. But for me, that's like the real tail upside case. But I don't know. I just don't have a handle on the likelihood of it because we all know that he was obviously trying to get votes. I mean, we know he was targeting sort of like the 20 to 40-year-old male population and crypto has obviously been a way to get to them.
9:02So the question is, is he going to be a man of his word or is it just some words without any meaning? Yeah, it's tough to know. It's tough to know. But if we think about what could be if this were the case, I think, firstly, there's a restructuring of what utility tokens are. We can start getting rid of some of this nonsense stuff. I think somebody raised a very good point about, I think founders should be forced to hold more tokens and not this ridiculous idea that founders need to have no tokens and the community should have it all immediately. Because that actually drives a misincentive alignment of incentives, because it means that you just dump everything when you start on token launch and nobody's incentivized to keep a project going.
9:56So I think lots of things change in the structure of crypto that we've had to, we've kind of got this kind of Frankenstein monster system that we've built to get round regulation. The other one that I think is something on my radar screen is capital formation and ICOs. Because, you know, we've now got obviously the public a bit fed up about VCs getting early, blah, blah, blah, and they make all the money. sure that they're taking the risk capital. But ICOs would allow a more level playing field again, which got shut down. So that's kind of interesting to me as well. Can we free up capital formation in markets further?
10:36That could be something very big indeed. So if you have that big Bitcoin level stuff you're talking about, but then some more sensible regulation on what a token is and what you can use it for, then you've got bigger foundation for something much, much larger. Yeah, I'm actually more bullish on that being done than the Bitcoin Act. I do think the Bitcoin, I actually don't know if the idea of making Bitcoin a strategic reserve currency or asset, I just don't know if like that will even be palatable for everyone in the House and Senate. But I do think the idea of tokenization, which will kind of just be catching up with what's regulations happen in the UK and in Europe, or at least beginning to happen across the world, and the US is just kind of behind on.
11:17I do think that will happen. And just to put it into perspective, like Trump's family, they literally did an ICO two weeks ago. They did an ICO for a DeFi project. You could not think of a more bullish thing for crypto happening in the US than a DeFi project doing an ICO two weeks ago. So I do think we're probably going to see a movement towards regulation ideally quickly. Although I do think it could still take a little bit of time. It sounds like JD Vance might be given that because he's kind of been a bit closer to crypto. I know he holds Bitcoin and a few other digital assets. I think he might be given that as one of his main policy things to be in charge of.
12:00So we're now in this world. We've broken through this all-time high. Bitcoin is now at 76k. Solana broke through 200 for the first time today. The banana suit is on. ETH actually went up to around 3k. Interestingly, on the day, Bitcoin dominance stayed pretty high. But over the last 24 to 48 hours, it started to dip. I don't know if you guys have a view on that as well. My view is that Bitcoin dominance could have just seen its, and I said this for the last few weeks, I thought election day could be the cycle high for Bitcoin dominance. That being said, we saw$1.4 billion of inflows into the Bitcoin ETF yesterday.
12:37What do you think here? Do you think Bitcoin is still the daddy and will continue to be an up-only sort of trade? Or do you think now is the time to take some more risks, Solana, ETH, that sort of stuff? Look, every time we get to this point in the cycle, Bitcoin dominance collapses. Risk-taking, and now with the new government, risk-taking is going to be rising. Also, the other thing that I found, the main driver of alts versus Bitcoin, so i.e. the inverse of dominance, is actually driven by the ISM survey. business cycle. Makes sense, because if the business cycle starts going more positive, because it's been very lackluster, what we tend to find is that risk-taking increases because people's disposable income goes up, their businesses earn a bit more money, everybody feels a little bit better.
13:28And that drives the same as small caps versus large cap outperformance. It's basically the same trade. You see it in credit markets as well. It's all the same trade. So it's perfectly set up for that now. All of our forward-looking indicators suggest that the ISM from here starts climbing above 50. 50 is the really big signal for the alt season. Yeah. I agree with that. I think, look, we were north of 60 % for a while. And I guess the only difference I agree with, like, you get to this point in the cycle, risk-taking increases, people go to alts, unicorns and whatnot. I agree with all that. The only thing that's different this time compared to last time is the existence of ETFs and the ability for retail who doesn't want to go out there and buy actual Bitcoins or actual ETH or whatever can just go out there and buy the ETFs.
14:23But you would think that would also be an argument for ETH doing well as well, not just Bitcoin, because there is an ETF out there as well. So it kind of makes me a bit more bullish on ETH here. And it's easy for mean to say that now when it's had like a little bit of a rally but um i do think um if the u.s starts rolling if they start actively rolling out things that are bullish for crypto the easiest way for a non-crypto person for which is the majority of the world right now still to play that is the etfs and there is a bitcoin etf there's an etf right now so um also if we go back to 2020 it It was exactly this time that ETH started properly outperforming.
15:04It's, again, the same point in the cycle. And if you play through, and I wrote a thread on this yesterday, is ETH is where institutions will build, whether it's on layer 1s or layer 2s. But that's where DeFi is. That's where institutions are not going to get fired for. It's the kind of Microsoft of the space. So I do think as regulation frees up, ETH is going to get a lot more activity than people yet understand. So I think it's good. And they've built it for scale. But the layer twos, you know, if there's not much activity going on, then the price doesn't do well. But if you can start bringing the financial institutions onto this space, ETH is the most likely candidate for it at scale.
15:50Yeah, we had already started to see that. Because it's got a yield as well. You know, it's just everything is there for it. We had started to see that, right? I think we started to see, I think Franklin Templeton tokenized the fund last week. So did UBS. So far, they've only really been allowed to tokenize U.S. treasury funds, which kind of makes sense. They only allow you to tokenize when you buy their debt. But it does feel as though when crypto policy comes in, that could expand. I still, I like looking at the Coinbase versus ETH chart, because I do think a lot of that tokenization will be captured by Coinbase.
16:21And I still think the way that ETH has been built means you need massive scale to start getting, again, a burn. Whereas I think Coinbase can capture a lot of that revenue, particularly in the US. So Coinbase had two back-to-back huge days, even after a set of results, which I think scared a few people. So I still like Coinbase there as a trade. Yeah, I put Coinbase as a trade idea. I mean, it's already been up 240 % in our GMI portfolio and our macro insiders portfolio. But I put it on the Real Vision platform yesterday or the day before yesterday because it's so fucking obvious. It's the toll keeper to all activity for anybody in the largest economy in the world.
17:09If you just scroll down, Arthur, there, just show the chart. The chart is, I know, Ovi, you're not a chart guy, but that's a fucking gigantic invert head and shoulders. This is going to La La Land squared. Yeah, I agree. This is the thing that I've, I am bullish on ETH as an ecosystem. What I found difficult is just that ETH itself, just because of the changes that were made earlier this year, just like you need massive scale for that burn to come back. Whereas Coinbase, you're going to see every major US institution Bitcoin base as either a custody partner or to tokenize on base. There's somewhere between BlackRock and JP Morgan.
17:50That's the position of power they have in this new emerging economy. I mean, what a position to be in. Yeah. And they own part of Circle as well, which is a stable condition. And they've now decided to have their own wrapped Bitcoin product. I think they've got a lot going for them here. and I think they're going to capture a huge amount of that demand because I think Trump will be pro-crypto, but it'll be pro-crypto in the US, which I think is also something that people have to realize. He's going to try and drag people back to the US and say, look, we'll allow you to do that. We might drop the lawsuits against the US-based exchanges, but we'll probably keep them going against Binance and KuCoin and all these other ones.
18:34But like Coinbase, it feels like could be in the clear. Well, maybe we'll just linger on that a little bit because that's one thing that does seem to be an immediate change here is we're probably going to get a new SEC chair. Gensler's days do look very, very numbered already. There's been a lot, a lot of talk about who's going to replace them. It looks like maybe it's Mark Ueda or Pesta Pierce running, but there's been a few others. But all of these seem to be very pro-crypto. And you could see here, if you have a pro-crypto head of the SEC come in, that could really, again, revolutionize. Because that's been one of the big issues with Coinbase.
19:14There's been dozens of lawsuits against them by the US government. So it's currently a$66 billion market cap. I think this bull market, the whole space will end up being$10 to$15 trillion, somewhere between that. So how much is Coinbase worth in that? I mean, it would not surprise me if Coinbase was worth$500 billion. Yeah. That's crazy, that$66 billion. It's insane. It's so cheap. It's mental, isn't it? Yeah. Yeah. Considering the size of the market that's already there, it's a$2.5 trillion market now. So if the market goes 5x, this probably goes 10x. Yeah. You know, so it feels, but, you know, that doesn't sound stupid.
20:05So, I mean, that's a hell of a trade for people. If people don't want to trade the currency themselves, Coinbase, it's a hell of a trade. I haven't owned any stocks in my ISA for a while. I might have to fill up my 10K limit, whatever it is. I just saw this and I thought, on the election, I thought, well, it's pretty clear who's won the election. Coinbase, because they had the super PAC and Trump. Elon. Yeah. I mean, Tesla and Coinbase, you might as well just throw every other stock out you own and just buy those.
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21:40I like to think of it as a percentage of the total market cap. So if it goes like Bitcoin, ETH, Sol, BNB, and then Coinbase, I do think out of those top five, I would probably pick Solana and Coinbase as the two that I think could really run here until for the next few months. ETH will do well, but I still think those two are the ones where you'll see. And obviously, you can pick like MicroStrategy and go kind of the levered Bitcoin route. But it does feel as though those have got a lot of value to capture. Maybe we'll talk a little bit about the path here as well. Because one thing that the last two years have shown is that crypto often works with crazy periods, normally about 8 to 12 weeks of extreme risk-taking.
22:25Bitcoin does a 3x. And then we do 10 months of smashing our head against the table, being like global liquidity is going higher. When are we going to go? When is crypto going to go higher? Do you think, are you expecting something like that until the next few weeks? Because that's kind of what my view is. I went back to look at these same periods in the election years and all of this stuff. And basically, the market goes bananas all the way until March. And then somewhere March, April, there's tax season. and everyone's going to have to pay Uncle Sam and Her Majesty or His Majesty and they have to start selling a bunch of stuff.
23:05That seems to happen every time where you get that pullback and then it's going to depend on global liquidity. If it's still strong, then we end up with a strong pump into the end of the year. If not, we kind of get something more like last time. But yeah, I mean, I'm just thinking it's now, it's banana zone. all the way through to march okay until march my my view was that we have again like an eight week period here where we we mean we've been saying on the show get really long in september when bitcoin was like 55k like this is time to get long i think we rally up until the trump inauguration that's when people go like absolutely right what are the assets to own until him coming into power and then i think it probably i don't know if crypto is going to be the first thing he kind of looks at we probably have a little bit of a chop i think around maybe around the end of q1 we'll start to get the ftx repayments as though so maybe like end of q1 we start to like have a have another um brief rally i think but it's difficult it is difficult to work out you don't want to be overly predictive but i do what i do think is we definitely got a very very strong rally until year end i don't see a world where we don't have a very very strong rally until year year end.
24:17I think Q1, you have some Solana unlocks, you have, I think it'll be a bit frothy, but you'll certainly have the FTX, it becomes a little bit more complicated, but Q4 from now until year end, it's you've got to look at things. Things are going to be absolutely flying in my opinion. Yeah, I agree with that. I think it's also, I just feel like I've seen this story before with risk assets in terms of the calendar effect and people start with getting towards the end of the year, but people are thinking about next year and starting January strong, positioning for January, Trump coming into power, all that kind of stuff.
24:52And all the positioning happens now. People pre-position for it, I think. Sometimes you get, in these periods, you get massive de-risking if people have had a good year. But I think this is like all, everyone's just going to be scrambling to get along various risk assets, whether it's crypto, whether it's Coinbase, Tesla, etc. So yeah, I think we keep going into end of December. I think we keep going in January as well. And I think post-January, I'm not really sure, but I think we'll have a really strong January start of the year, looking forward to Trump coming in. Fresh P &L. Everyone puts their fresh P &L.
25:28Fresh P &L. Everyone's like, why didn't we buy crypto last year? Now's the time to get in right before Trump comes in. That kind of stuff, I think, just never... Even January this year was the same thing with the ETFs and stuff. Like arguably Q1 was like the strongest period for crypto as a whole because altcoins even did well then as well. So I think that's what we see. And now's the time to position for it if you haven't positioned it for it already. But it's just never too late really, is it? And also, Manu, we were talking before we came on camera about it probably starts to ignite the real mincoin season, the utter insanity season as well.
26:03because if we've got this somewhere between four and 16 weeks of really dream risk-taking environment, people are going to go so far up the risk curve, it's terrifying. People just can't help themselves. They cannot help themselves. People think we've seen some of that already, but the meme coin total market cap is only about$65 billion right now. It's still a pretty small bit of crypto. and I do think I was saying to you I think this weekend is going to be wild like the amount of people that will get off work this Friday and think I need to invest I need to get back into crypto I think you're going to see huge moves in some of these meme points even some of the big market cap you saw Doge again which just is a really good bellwether for people coming back into crypto right because they remember Doge they want to degen Doge had a massive move over the last and obviously that's related to Elon as well to a certain extent.
27:01I guess I've got to have the only institutional research service in the world that has Doge in its portfolios as a recommended trade. Rather easy to see ours. Yeah, I do think these weekends, I just know them, right? Like, Hurt Volume's going crazy on some of these meme coins. I think a lot of people are coming back and just thinking, right, what can I buy? You know, you just need to dust off your NFT playbook. You guys are at the epicenter of this. It's the same playbook. Yeah, yeah. Yeah, and maybe we should go into, so we've said in terms of timing what we think this is going to be. We think this is the start of like a bit of a run here.
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27:38Then it's in terms of sectors, right? So we've just mentioned meme coins. Interesting that some of the biggest coins were some of the DeFi coins, actually, over the last few weeks, over the last few days. Since the election, some of those all got them high. Things like Athena, Aave, Maker. again, this kind of goes back to what we were talking about with crypto returning to being, you know, these utility coins finally being fixed, that potentially a return to reversing of the brain drain, I think, from crypto that we've slightly seen, where you start to see, you know, finance professionals and AI professionals kind of come back into the space.
28:13Do you think it's just memes? Or do you think this is now, you know, like, because some people get completely turned off. And I do think now is one of the first times where you can start to look things on a protocol level and be like, actually, you know, revenue matters for some of these, because they're going to start to be valued a little bit more like stocks again, rather than just governance tokens. Yeah, I think it could be a very, like, look, some of these, Radium, that's a sole DeFi coin, Athena, Aave, like, it wasn't just memes, it was DeFi, which I just thought was a very interesting move.
28:45Yeah, I think they get re-rated, just for the points that we raised. it's just a re-rating to say they may not be useless utility coins this is frankenstein's monster of a token exactly like i think people have obviously had an aversion to touching this stuff because of the sec regulation and stuff that goes away yeah i know we all love meme coins but there are people who actually like to think a bit more with their brains and maybe want to be a bit more intellectual about their thinking and you know if you're raising a lot of capital as much easier to raise it for things where you actually have a real use case in utility.
29:23So I've been thinking, I was thinking about this today. I just think one of the good trades could be just to throw some dice at some of this stuff that's down 80-90 % from the highs, down on the year still, especially the DeFi stuff, or just some alts in general. I don't think I have enough conviction to go all in, but I'm wondering, like obviously meme coins are up in the last two or three days but they're all up so much and they can go a lot higher but it just makes you wonder whether some of this stuff could actually be where the real 100x's are for on a risk reward basis at least anyway because i don't think this stuff can't really go much lower right like it's all down like 90 off the highs like how much lower can it go yeah my stuff like are they and stuff i mean this stuff is very low compared to where it got to right exactly this is this is what i've been thinking a little bit i think the biggest risk to meme coins right now is actually that people decide that crypto isn't just meme coins you know they come back and they go actually what you just said osf like oh these meme coins have moved and that's the first mover but actually people look at things like some of these solana defi coins right because solana dex volumes are kind of challenging eath plus l2s many many weeks and they are much cheaper like radium's a big mover things like camino jupiter like some of these big Solana DeFi coins, I think it'd be, could be interesting plays.
30:47And I said that for, for many, uh, weeks before the election, but I do think now if you're not looking at, um, if you're not looking at meme coins, I think you can start to look at what, go onto token terminal or Artemis and look at what has been producing the most number of fees over the last seven to, you know, um, well, I guess months. And there are some very interesting trades there, I think, from a fee basis because suddenly I think tokens will be viewed at that and they'll look at multiples and all this. You know, what's in Real Vision Pro Crypto, Jamie Cootes. I don't know if you see Jamie's work.
31:23It's unbelievable. He's going to be coming on the show fairly regularly, I think, now. He's so good. And he's built, we're going to have real-time dashboards of all of this stuff because he's kind of gone the next year and second, use all of the different measures of network growth, network activity, network fees, put it all together in a single indicator to give you the ability to sort it all, it's actually pretty smart. This is what I mean. This is the sort of stuff that people largely found difficult to look at for this cycle, right? So far, you could have been like a normal stock market analyst.
31:55You could have been coming into crypto and being like, I know the tools to evaluate. And you've been like, right, well, I've been wrong here because meme coins have been the main thing. If you want, if it's a time to look at data again, it's now. Because I think in a month or two, everyone's going to be looking at it again and being like, right, suddenly these coins can return to being a bit more stock-like. Yeah. So William building out a whole suite of tools is going to be both real-time, but he also published reports. I mean, here's the one on network adoption projections. He does more work than anybody else I know on this stuff.
32:27It's super interesting. And I think, as you say, it's going to become more important now because we can get rid of the Frankenstein monsters of tokens and get into something that actually values cash flow. Yeah, there's a bit for everyone. I think there'll be interesting new stuff. I've said this ever since I kind of saw this goat coin, which I know you've been following a little bit as well, is that I think as well, crypto has now going to become a playground for AI. Now that you can see a bunch of AI researchers are probably seeing a story like Goat or a few of the other AI coins over the last few weeks and being like, right, I can actually make money.
33:05I'm not just building an LLM for, you know, OpenAI or Google. I can come in and be at the forefront of AI meets money for the first time. And I do think we're going to see some really interesting new stuff come out of both the DeFi space, but also Deepin, AI. I think the brain drain that we've had in crypto because meme coins dominated for so long is about to really reverse. Yeah, on the AI side, I've got Andy, who built the Terminal Truths coming on with another guy called Ryan Ferris, who's built another one called Forrest and a bunch of stuff, the Mycelium. So they're both going to come on together onto the journey, man.
33:49So we're going to have a wild conversation about where this is all going. I've seen I was following Terminal Truth from like the day it opened its account before the crypto and anything I think everyone was everyone because people thought it would do a token much earlier because it was always asking about I should do a token and then nothing ever happened and then it just randomly did one day but Andy I've seen an interview he seems like a very funny guy New Zealander got a good sense of humor he's a cool guy yeah I think it's going to be a fun intersection here of people like that coming back.
34:22It's not just going to be cabals pumping meme coins. It's going to be interesting people coming back and doing really cool stuff. And I think particularly on the DeFi side as well. Yeah. So I think that that's for me, that's the main risk for meme coins. I do think we're going to see this period of, yeah, people coming back and the first thing you're going to buy is like a mudang or some random coin that they've seen recently. But I also think people are going to come back and see these things as being an interesting move. I saw your interview the other day on Diary of the CEO, which I thought was very interesting, worth going and seeing it.
35:01But the real comment I also took away is your comments just around blockchain as a source of truth going forward, and particularly around this AI movement. I do think what we've just seen with the election with polymarket and that destroying all the polls and then just the general consensus mechanism and things like nfts being able to prove ownership or prove authenticity do you think that's also going to be like a big underlying trend for crypto now in this in this new world you know i'm not sure it's going to be the biggest trend this cycle i think we'll talk about it a lot we'll see some speculative activity in it by the next time around we're going to have a choice.
35:47We simply have no choice but to hyperscale digital ID, digital sources of truth, everything. And it's going to be a race. And it's going to be a race at sovereign scale. So yeah, this is when I look at my forward projections of blockchain adoption just by using wallets. And by 2030, I get to between 4 and 8 billion wallets. And that's because it's coming out it's going to come out of this stuff this is a mega use case for bitcoin that for blockchain that people just don't understand they still think it's mean coins all of this is testing the big game which is all of finance and all of the internet yeah that's a really good this is what i was saying maybe last week's show is that i don't know if it's necessarily just a change in use case but like it's a new user if you start to get hundreds of millions of ai agents suddenly using the blockchain.
36:45Does that count as a human? We've always been like, oh, it's going to be really tough to onboard people. But actually, if you can onboard billions of AI agents, then you can really start scaling ETH pretty quickly. This is the last cycle of ever talking about onboarding over again. Yeah. You know, Web3 will just become the internet. And people like Sui and all of these people who are abstracting away all of the nonsense, it'll all disappear. We won't even know it anymore. but those of us who know will have been able to buy the infrastructure layer early before it gets the mass adoption but it's going to get used for literally everything every car thing every driving license every piece of government id every single person's id online um contracts tickets i mean again people because they just think of nfts as pfps and a bit of high-end art they have no comprehension that literally everything humanity does is a contract.
37:44And this is a way of hyperscaling contracts with a consensus mechanism that gives you a source of truth. I mean, that's a very expensive business for the law firms. You know, just think of, you know, what happens when banks go under, you know, we've all been involved in that or a hedge fund goes under who owns what assets. It just all goes away because there is a source of truth. You can't co-mingle shit. It's like, it's, it's fascinating. Imagine if all of our old job trading over-the-counter high-yield bonds and stuff was just done on-chain. 100%. Like everything. Most of this is that anything that's at OTC is generally an NFT.
38:25Because it's a bespoke contract. If you think, when I was at Goldman, we had desk stuff with Isda docks, because it was so clunky to do this stuff. but an nft with automatic settlement on chain for whatever you're doing so straightforward and it'll hyperscale you know salama could probably handle half of that stuff already yeah i think the i mean we me and over used to trade no tc market i know you obviously you were involved in those but like they only really existed even towards the end of our careers like you started to see the more liquid bits of that being replaced by algos and bots but now you know if you can get you can just tell an l i don't know how the interface is going to look and i think maybe i'll pick your brain on that a little bit but let's say you just have an an lm we can just be like hey trade this market for me we only want to take this much risk pay attention to these factors at all times pay attention to these macro factors build an algo yourself out of the model we don't like we want an average return of this with every all of these banks are just going to replace all the traders like it's now gotten to the extent that we don't need that for for even otc yeah but then i'm more thinking of the actual contract itself so yeah you know the let's say it's a call option on turkish government bonds or that's just an nft right straightforward it can settle you put that in code the real issue is it was the question that people ask me is well surely somebody who gets agi just wins markets right and they're worth $10 trillion and we have to shut down markets.
39:57Now, okay, that's the exaggerated answer. But the reality is they're true, is by the time we hyperscale AI agents and something closer to AGI, there's no place for us in this stuff. And I'm not sure what markets are then, because they're so priced on so many factors. I know people still think, yeah, but discretionary, macro forward-looking stuff, I don't know that that's not going to fall as well into this whole AI pit. So I talk about this a lot. I think we've got six years to make as much money as we can right now, because I have no clue what the world looks like. But I don't think we're going to have an opportunity in financial markets in the way that we do.
40:41I think we can earn tokens. I think community-based stuff, which is what I think memes of the testing, works. I just think the jobs that we grew up in it's it's gone it's going to be gone six years what do you think on a hardware level here because i think some of the major like big movements in in in even the internet age right where things like the phone or the iphone and that sort of stuff and that right now people's experience with ai is really just going onto the chat gpt website and and typing in something do you think i know you look a lot across like robotics i like do you think are you foreseeing what's going to be the big thing that like just suddenly changes it so the ai becomes so ingrained in us that you don't have to like log into a website and it just it just like changes it won't it'll just be in your speakers around your house it'll speak to it like this weird mentor shit you know so we build science fictions called hyperstition um and what you do is you create a future that you've envisaged um and we will almost certainly do that so we will just go you know Siri, tell me this and do that for me and do this for me.
41:51But also, you know, you see the robot dogs and Marc Andreessen was talking about he's got two robot dogs already. They are just the pointy end of the spear for the machine. We've already got Roombas. So we've got a robot that cleans your house. You'll have a robot that mows your lawn, a robot that tidies your house. We've already got dishwashers, which are robots that clean your dishes. You know, it's not that big an ask for all of this to change. Tesla is going to be your car drives itself. In fact, it generates you revenue by acting as a taxi. When you're away on holiday, you're in bed. So, yeah, I mean, it's just coming so fast.
42:33All of these payments, crypto rails are a damn sight easier than trying to get your Tesla car to have an account with, you know, Cayman National Bank that requires your birth certificate of your you know of your entire ancestry before they even open an account for you and then reject you anyway yeah that interview I think I saw the same interview and he was he was actually talking about a cuddly toy for he he bought for his his kids which is an LLM right and then the kid can ask you questions and it just replies and I looked to buy one for my my daughter because I was like because we want her to speak another language as well and can speak other languages back and you get to see the answers and the questions that it gives like you can have it like an app where it shows that i think our our interface with this stuff is going to really change i think that's one thing you speak to maybe not ask because i think we're a bit more in the space but you speak to your parents or maybe an older generation i don't necessarily think they're logging on to chat tpt every single day but if you change that so it's suddenly a very easy interface for people well the other interface people just sleeping on that is going to happen is here I am on my Apple Mac.
43:40On my Apple Mac, they have the new M3 and M4 chips. They can power a local LLM. So it can see everything I watch, every conversation I have, every message I spend, every email I do, everything I watch online, everything, everything that I do. And it can interface with what my phone is doing and everything else. now i've got my life mentor my life helper it can do anything for me it knows how i speak it can create voice messages create video for me it can send you guys an email send your whatsapp say hey when are you coming to the cayman event in miami you know it's all gonna happen without us even realizing well i'm i like the uh you guys are aware of the internet of things i think that's going to be the main underlying thing for everything so you have everything will be connected to like the internet basically probably using spectrum and it's all going to be like have this chat gpt or whatever ai thing overlay so you know you're no longer going to be like how the how the fuck do i use this oven it's just it's just going to be like it's just you're just going to be like okay like heat my thing up for you know to 300 degrees for 30 minutes and set a timer like it won't even do that you will put the roast the chicken in it'll go here i see you're cooking chicken how do you want it roasted exactly exactly yeah and things that we can do with ai right we've really really good life-changing life-changing thing to do also must be cooking
45:14i'm i am a chef when you guys come here i will cook for you all right well that is one thing that we should shout out there is going to be and i think raul spoke about it before we are doing a real vision event i think we're gonna play a minute and a half trailer is it um of the i just want to give a prequel to this because you know we all kind of live in this weird digital online world where you know ov i can't remember last time i saw you in person mando i saw you in mallorca recently we don't get together enough and there's a lot of events in crypto and a lot of them are just fucking going to watch somebody on stage the same person say the same thing i mean how many times can you hear Caitlin Long and Jeremy Allaire and, you know, whatever.
45:58All speaking, they're all great people, but it's the same thing. So we just thought we're just going to get rid of all of that and just have a crypto gathering and just get, you know, 500 plus people together in Miami, end of January, plus all the kind of people everyone knows from Real Vision, like you guys. You know, I think Sergio will be there. In fact, Sergio is coming to my house this evening. So he's here for the weekend. um you know kevin kelly will be there everybody will be there and we'll just be hanging out doing experiences going on boats restaurants just doing cool shit all around uh miami so this i know is going to be a killer event you guys didn't come to the cayman version of this that we did that was just epic so yeah so roll the trailer he says like
47:10so within this we have parties you can choose the vip track and then you might be on a boat party and you're doing something else and going for a dinner there or meeting people in different venues and bars. So there's lots going on. It's like a mad treasure hunt. I like the idea of just hanging out with you guys, drinking a rum or a glass of champagne and putting the world to rights and just really celebrating you as our members and our community. And it's a thank you for that as well. It'll be an incredible event.
47:45Listen, get your tickets quick before they sell out. This is the event you've been waiting for. Come and join us for the crypto gathering. We will have an absolute blast.
48:03Well, we'll be there. It does look pretty amazing. It's better than London in January, trust me. Yeah, you guys do have some nice places. Mallorca in the summer, Miami in the winter. Some of us have class, you know. I know, I know. Well, you're living in Portugal. I mean, Portugal's actually, I actually really liked Portugal. I was always very anti-Portugal. I just called it Spain light. But, you know, it's actually, it's nice. Yeah, that's one thing that I didn't expect here. Like, you kind of assume when you come out here that they'll be kind of friends. And if you start speaking Spanish to a Portuguese person, they are not happy.
48:35You can speak English at them, and they're like, yeah, I'm fine. But if you start speaking Spanish at them, they are definitely not happy. Anyway, I don't know if we want to go to some of the questions. Questions? It feels as though we've got probably another 10 minutes and we've got a bunch of different things to get through. We've obviously gone through a huge amount here over crypto, AI. I don't know if we want to touch upon any specific coins we've been looking at over the last week. I think some of the more interesting stuff has been kind of in that AI space. You just kind of touched upon Go, which has had a big run.
49:07And I don't know if you've looked at anything, Raoul. No, the only thing is, here's a good story, because you'll enjoy this so i i generally don't take tips from people right i do kind of my own work but an old mate of mine another ex-investment banker uh calls me up and he works for a pretty famous guy um that you guys might know from the hedge fund world and he calls me up and goes you know you've got to see this ai token it's amazing nobody knows of it yet blah blah blah blah blah blah blah and i'm like uh really and i i'm like don't do this stuff but it was it was really interesting for a number of reasons and i won't name the token because it's a token of shame because i bought it it immediately literally immediately fell 65 percent and i then reflected back on this and realized i've taken two tips tips this year that i shouldn't have done both fell, well, one fell 99%.
50:07I luckily managed to get out. That was GWAC. And the other one was this one, which is down 65 % in a day when I bought it. So I'm just trying to avoid listening to other people because I fuck it up every time I do that. I do think, and I was saying this a few hours ago, that you're going to have so much temptation to get rid of your soul, get rid of your Bitcoin, degen, you're going to see coins move up. Don't fuck this up, T-shirt. This is also a don't fuck this up period. Like, Sol could go to 250 this weekend. Like, I think you're going to see crazy candles. And people are going, you do not want to, just don't fuck this up.
50:47Yeah. If you're going to degen, do it with some. I know. And I see people do it. I see friends of mine do it already. They're in the pump trenches looking for the 500k. I'm like, please don't do this. you will literally not make it you just won't do it on a very small amount do it on a very small percentage of your portfolio if you have to but don't let it affect your core positions a lot of people who do that just can't help themselves they sell more of their soul and they keep buying more and they sell more soul and buy more next time I'll get it right, next time I've been 100x before you know it their soul pile is down 75 % and they've made no money in memes sounds like me my Ethan NFT in 2021 won yeah it's exactly the same one thing i have noticed as well with a lot of these is they will they might nail the entry right and it might do a 2x and they'll feel like you'll feel like a king on some of these pumped up fun coins very few nail the exit because they'll just they'll they will never be they'll just in their mind it's going to 100 million and then it'll drop 90 and then you've got to make a call about the next coin that comes out in the next 10 minutes about going into it.
51:59I do think that even if you're going to be in those streets, just take your initials out. If you ever get the chance of doing a 2X, just take out the 1X. And then it's just a fun thing for you to scratch that itch. If you hold some of this stuff, it can be very dangerous. But there's also, it concerns me that people think there's alpha in hidden groups and there's paid groups where there's alpha. It doesn't exist. Alpha does not exist in that way. Some people are lucky, some people have done the homework, but there's no trading group you're going to join that's going to make you a fortune. We saw this with NFTs, we've seen it with penny stocks, you see it with everything.
52:41It's just a way of parting money from you. Yeah, I do think that if you join a paid group in the pump.fond streets, you're going to be the equity of the first people in that group. It does seem obvious. Should we get to the questions? I don't know if I'm sure we have a few. Yeah, let's do it. A quick one before we do, we just want to showcase some more pro crypto content on Real Vision. So earlier this week, we had Ash Bennington again host a panel on what crypto's future is going to look like in the US post the elections. Very balanced, unbiased, and insightful analysis, I'm told. So make sure you check out the Real Vision website.
53:22It's available to all of its members on realvision.com. And let's go to the questions. I've got five minutes here, so I'm trying to pick the most interesting ones. Okay. If your portfolio is fully allocated at the moment, but you have additional monthly income coming in, would it be better to continue adding to the portfolio gradually or waiting for a pullback before adding? I'm kind of of the opinion, we're not there yet, but we're very close to the point you stop adding. You stop adding. You stop adding. You should have done all of your work already. yeah so i'd rather build up a cash pile for opportunities in due course i mean i think we're still okay to add but you know you've got to stop adding at some point i think you know you guys have talked about this you know you should be in the frame of mind of where am i going to take some lifestyle chips off and stuff as opposed to adding adding adding because dollar cost averaging on the way up just means that you go into a p &l loss on the way down and most people don't know how to deal with that.
54:26That's my view. I agree. I feel like if you're going to add, you actually need to be adding the whole amount now and playing for that December rally. And if you want to DCA, then I would just not DCA here and wait for a day to DCA. I think DCA works best not in a rising market. It works best in a falling market if you're adding. So now is not really the time to DCA. Is it the time to add risk? If you have a short-term view, then yeah, I think so. or even a long-term view. But DCAing here doesn't really make sense because just increasing your, you're actually, your dollar cost averaging higher when you want to be dollar cost averaging lower.
55:04So I'd rather, as you said, like wait for dips to add, I think. Yeah, I think I would agree with you that putting it in now maybe is the only chance. I do think that, and I always think this about crypto, you normally get at any price point, you normally get multiple times to buy it. How many times did you get the chance to buy Bitcoin at 65K? Like hundreds of times. You're probably going to get multiple times to buy Bitcoin at 75K. Just the natural volatility of the asset means it goes up, down, up, down. Even if it's going up, you'll get multiple days where it goes up and down. So just have that in your mind.
55:42If you are going to put it all in now, know that it will probably be lower than this three times at least. you just have the discipline on those down days to buy it so either buy it now and accept this volatility or buy it on the down days if you're not fully invested Alright, next question for trophy assets like NFTs namely artists like Beeple is it better to wait to buy during the next crypto winter? Typically prices are much better during bear markets but if I wait, maybe I miss my chance given the limited supply of artists like Beeple and presumably XCopy and the likes. It's a good one for you, Raoul, because I know you've been adding to this stuff over the years.
56:25I still think they're all too cheap. I just think it's all way too cheap. If I'm right in my core thesis, my left curve take is this space is going from$2 trillion to$100 trillion over the next 10 years. That accumulation of wealth will flow into art, and art is going up. Anybody who was around in the early stages that have cultural relevance will be more valuable. And so, yeah, I just don't see a world that that happens. And if you are allocating out of cash, obviously you get the ETH kicker on top of it, which is something people don't realize you don't get with mean coins. They're dollar-based.
57:11so you know the money that was made in in nfts it was a lot bigger in some respects because you got the double kicker with your cash but so yeah so i i think now it's still not expensive but it's becoming harder to buy i can see it there's virtually no beples for sale there's very limited x copy but there's all the series like max pain and stuff like that um and they're still cheap as chips. Even Grifters are less than, yeah, I don't know where they are now, 11 and ETH. Still pretty cheap, really. Yeah, I think we are not yet at the point of the cycle where people feel crypto necessarily wealthy.
57:51I think you have Bitcoin wealth that's been made this cycle. But if you have an altcoin season, you'll generally see kind of this Feblen good thing come back and people look at things like CryptoPunks and some of this are again and everyone will feel like they are back to being crypto wealthy. So I would agree that actually I think that real parabolic bit of that exact market will be right at the end. Will be when people have made a ton. I agree with that too. I think actually I think you don't have to wait for the bear or the crypto winter because I don't think we've actually seen the NFT bull run happen yet.
58:28I know it's happened a little bit in next copy and maybe people but it hasn't really happened to the extent that it did in 2021 and i do think we'll see whether it's a full repeat or not i do think we'll see nft come back in a big way this cycle i think and does that make you want to spend i know you're busy doing a lot of things but does that not make you think that you should be spending some time on some one of ones and you know on that on the on the creative side i know you've done some bits and pieces recently but it kind of feels like that's another opportunity not just in terms of making money but just cement your own over your own kind of legacy in the space because you know red light district was you know very well regarded when it came out and it's part of the kind of earlier movements and stuff does it not tempt you back into i need to do some more art yeah i feel like I bought a decent amount of art in 2023 last year during the year creating art yourself creating oh creating art I'm sorry I'm sorry creating art yeah um just a time thing really isn't it like we've had all the wrecked stuff wrecked drink stuff and um it's been busy this year so I definitely will create more things I've have a couple of have a couple of collections I did do this year much earlier but um I do have a few more things on the cards to roll out but it's just once we get this stuff off the ground, then I think we'll have, it'll free up some more time for me on that.
59:52But yeah, I would like to, it's still a big focus for me. I'd like to keep going with it for sure. So at least for his one of ones, sounds like supplies are going to be like, I think one of what you should, you know, yeah. I haven't released a one of one this year, actually. No, that's the whole thing. Should the one of ones or, you know, one of fives, that kind of stuff. Yeah. Yeah, for sure. Well, look, I think that brings us up to time. That went pretty fast, actually. Yeah. Great show. yeah it's always a great show when when Raoul's here and we're at all time highs yeah hopefully he's here again next week then but yeah if he's not here every time I tune in there's two of you going fucking hell it's miserable it's so boring there's nothing going I turn up and you're both laughing and charming I don't see what the issue is unbelievable alright well we will hopefully be at all time highs again next week like I've said I do think now is the time to lock in I think we've got a hundred percent for this Q4 is going to be pretty wild.
1:00:47I think we're going to be hearing about some crazy records across a range of different tokens, plus majors, plus Coinbase, as we mentioned, AI is coming very, very strong into the final quarter as well. But thanks again for joining us. Obviously, you can go check out more crypto content at Real Vision and go check out the event that we're doing in January. Thanks again, and we will see you again next week. Take care, everyone. If you like this episode, I'd love for you to head over to realvision.com forward slash join for a free membership. Start your journey today to unfuck your future. Just one click away.
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