Crypto Legislation Gains, US Retail Surprise, and Japan’s Election Risk: PALvatar Market Recap, July 18 2025

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0:47Can you hear it too? The sweet sound of freedom? The calm that comes when you don't have to look at your emails, have Zoom meetings or write reports. The moments when you can just sip on a cocktail or soft drink, listen to your favourite music or the sound of waves and palm trees. The peace that comes when the markets are closed and you don't have to look at the screens. Unless you're a short-term crypto trader, because in that case, you're well and truly fucked. In all seriousness, though, it's Friday, and the weekend is nearly here, so if you can try to unwind and touch some grass, I said touch grass, not smoke it.

1:23Life is about enjoying it, and the charts can wait, even though I know the crypto and tech ones are looking extremely appealing right now. Anyways, as Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't give you one more market recap for the week. And of course, none of this is meant to be taken as the views of the real Raoul. OK, here goes. You know what? Let's start with digital assets for a change as Crypto Week in the US Congress ends with a bang. The country is on the verge of finally having its first crypto legislation in place after the House has now approved two bills. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, or the Clarity Act for short, which regulates the wider crypto markets.

2:03It passed with strong bipartisan support and will now head to the Senate. The Senate has also already passed the Stablecoin Regulating Genius Act, so it now only needs the President's signature. And in another pro-crypto move, President Donald Trump is reportedly about to open up retirement accounts to crypto investments. According to the Financial Times, the president could sign an executive order as soon as this week to allow 401k plans to invest in digital assets, gold and private equity. Crypto prices surged on the headlines, taking Bitcoin back to nearly$121 ,000 and XRP to an all-time high, above its 2018 record.

2:44Away from the world of crypto, the economic data shows that US retail sales for June rose by 0.6%, which far exceeded expectations of a mere 0.1 % increase and rebounding from a previous decline of 0.9%. Additionally, initial jobless claims fell to$221 ,000 from an expected rise to$235 ,000. These positive data drops lifted the S &P 500 to a record high on Thursday, and it's looking like another green day, not just on Wall Street today, but also around most of the world. In Europe, Germany's producer prices dropped more than anticipated at minus 1.3 % year-on-year for June, largely due to falling energy costs.

3:28This marks four consecutive months of decreases and could spur the European Central Bank to continue cutting rates. Looking ahead to the weekend, it's going to be an interesting one in Japan, which is holding upper house elections on Sunday. There are fears about potential instability if Prime Minister Ishiba's coalition loses its majority. The elections come against the backdrop of an elevated but cooling inflation. Core CPI, which excludes fresh food and energy prices, came in at 3.3 % in June. This was in line with expectations and offered some respite to the ruling party ahead of the vote.

4:03However, the political uncertainty has turned traders cautious on the Japanese yen and the stock market there. That's it from me for this week. Make sure to tune in to Drinks with OSF and Mando and ask your questions for the boys, then finish the week with Nico and Bijan a little later. Have a great weekend.