Crypto on the Brink of EXPLOSIVE Growth - REKT Vision

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1:29GM, everyone. Welcome back to another episode of Rec Vision. We're here again with OSF, new location, I think, right? Good to see you. I've been here in Istanbul for the last couple of shows, I think. I just finally have good Wi-Fi, so I won't be cutting out this time. You are right. There was something novel about today. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, it's a big episode. We have the election coming on Tuesday. And I think that's kind of front and center for literally everyone in crypto at the moment. I don't really know. Like, do you think it's as big a deal as people are saying it is? Or do you think it's just kind of one of these things that whatever happens, we're going to go higher?

2:10Yeah. What's your kind of view right now? We're at or near all-time highs going into it. What's your view? I'm feeling like whatever happens will go higher. And... I think whichever thing happens is sort of like a short-term sell of the news. So if we wick down because Kamala wins, I think you buy that. If we wick up because Trump wins, I think you sell that, just at least in the short term. And by short term, I mean possibly even like that day in isolation. But I do think markets will be happy to get over the uncertainty and figure out a clearer path towards whatever it is. So obviously, I still think Trump's the best option, but I do think we are set to just grind higher until the end of the year, I think.

2:57Yeah. If you take a step back, gold's at all-time highs, tech stocks at all-time highs, Bitcoin's now gone back towards all-time highs. It feels as though it'd be tough to see us absolutely go down a lot, even if Carmela gets in. But there's definitely been, over the last week, we've seen massive inflows into the ETF. So I think over 2 billion inflows even, well, I think close to 5 billion inflows over the last three weeks. So an absolutely massive period of inflows here for good 30s. It does feel like I was even speaking to people kind of from our old world who are messaging me like, oh, should I buy some crypto, should I buy some Bitcoin as a Trump trade?

3:40I don't know if that's good or bad. You know what's funny? this cycle, last cycle I was getting all these normal texts saying should I buy Bitcoin, should I buy ETH, whatever this cycle, the most common text I've got is from people who bought ETH last cycle and saying things like does Ethereum still work that's the most common text I've had, should I sell my ETH and buy Bitcoin, like literally at the ETH BTC highs what's your response to that? I actually don't know i mean how much high can eth btc really go even even that guy benjamin cowan who i think is long been a um eth btc bear bitcoin bull over eth even he said he thought it bottoms and i was like oh man this must be the time and it's like dropped even through his levels so i really don't know i can't just can't believe eth hit 4k at one point this year and right now we're in an environment that feels like a raging bull and ether's at like 2500 how mental is that ether's the new doge whenever it outperforms the whole market then just absolutely tanks it happened like yesterday or two days ago whenever ether has a little bit of a wick be wary because it normally means the market's about to head head south i do think that if there's ever a time for bitcoin dominance to go down it's on a trump victory so although i do think we can go higher in pretty much all scenarios.

5:10I think that's really a case for Bitcoin. I do think that Trump paints probably, particularly if there's a clean sweep here, right, that you can get through crypto pop probably easy in the US. And that will allow a big tokenization trend for Ethan Solana. And maybe that's the point where, you know, Bitcoin dominance goes back down towards like 55 from 60, you know. I think it'll probably take time for that to get enacted. but I do think that that's maybe the trade. I kind of prefer altcoins here for one of the first times in many, many, many. Really? Wow. Yeah. Well, because my gut tells me that Trump's getting in or at least I think that's going to happen and then I think altcoins could outperform on the back of that.

5:59It does feel, I mean, I know I said this a few weeks ago when Bitcoin dominance was maybe at 55 % or 56 % And I was like, yeah, maybe you should take a stab at altcoins because some of this stuff is down so horrendously. And that was obviously a bad trade. But now with Bitcoin dominance above 60%, it feels like you can take a stab at altcoins. But I can't say that with any conviction. I would never just go... I would never put a large part of my portfolio into alts right now because I think memes have really shown their hand as Bitcoin beta. But as a pun, it's interesting, I think, as a pun. Ever wanted to explore the world of online trading but haven't dared try?

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8:24Some of the Solana DeFi coins have done really really well going into this election. And I quite like that actually. In some ways it could be even better than Solana because I think Solana has these unlocks happening in Q1 whereas I think that that won't take it away from the idea that you're going to have a huge amount of volume going through it. And I think the DeFi coins could capture a lot of that particularly if we start to see softer policy in the US. Do you think alts are down because of this utility argument? And, or do you think they're just down because of like VC dumping? Like what's the reason why they haven't, what's the real reason why they haven't performed well?

9:01Like how much difference would it make if there was deregulation of the stuff? Maybe for DeFi, I definitely see on the DeFi side. Yeah, I would be for DeFi, I would say. The majority of the DeFi coins, or a lot of them were 2021 coins, right? There were governance tokens back in like 2020, 2021. And a lot of those are like fully unlocked now. So it's really just, can you get access to the funds within them? I think on Solana, actually, there's still a decent amount of unlocks to come in some of the DeFi coins. But I would say that by and large, they're not like some of the other coins out there.

9:39A lot of the VC coins, the bigger DeFi coins have kind of had their VC unlocks already. And coins like Jupiter, for example, which does have a big unlock, actually never raised any money from VCs. So it's like an interesting trade there. But I think part of it for DeFi is that if you do see a big tokenization trade in the US, DeFi coins could really explode. Suddenly it doesn't just become everyone trading meme coins all day. It becomes trading tons of different assets all day. So I thought for a while they were some of the best bets going into the election. I only really had on Camino which has been a good trade but you could have technically had them all on and they've done a lot of the major Solana ones and they've done well Are you going to grow your alt slash DeFi portfolio before elections?

10:33Yeah, well I think I think it's one thing to say especially for us because we take a lot of risk it's one thing to say yeah I kind of like that trader I'm bullish on it but it's another thing to actually put risk on yeah you're actually going to action it because i'm not it's just to be clear depends what you call it what would you call an altcoin in the cycle like um what we've anything that's anything that's not meme coin i mean anything that's not bitcoin a meme coin or ethel soul okay i mean it's going to be behaving like altcoins but i i well i would i would maybe class solana in that too um yeah so i moved a lot of my solana bag to bitcoin and now I'm considering moving it back like almost fully to Solana ahead of this, just ahead of the election.

11:21Just because I think that could capture a lot of the gains going into like December and then honestly, I think I'll probably take it off again in December just because of all the unlocks. But I do think you could have a bit of an altcoin cycle. For the first time in many, many months, I think this is probably the best shot. When else are you going to have an altcoin cycle if it's not for the idea that US is about to have crypto policy that allows altcoins to do more things again and we maybe slightly move away from just trading meme coins. This is the only time. I think I'd probably capture that mainly in Solana and then I have a couple of other smaller positions like I have Tau which is that L1 for AI and then I have Camino but I'm thinking the main thing I'm going to probably move into is back into Solana.

12:11i like i like solana as a short-term trump trade and less so as a 2021 trade i think that's how i think i think maybe it was bitwise or vanette came out and maybe it was even one of the people who said solana to 400 if trump gets in um that could be the wick yeah aggressive um but I do think that they will probably capture a lot of that altcoin cycle. I do think we're going to have a lot of volatility though over the next few days. Like I wouldn't chase coins on good days. Let's put it that way. I think you can, I think Bitcoin, I mean, even right now, the second it's dipped back below 70 K it was at 73 K went back below 70 K yesterday, went up to 71 and a half, just a few, just a few hours ago and then back down below 70k i think we're going to go up and down around 70k about four times or five times over the next few days and then i do think that that the election probably takes us uh above that level but expect some volatility i think that's the the one mantra i would say right now like buy good coins on bad days because the volatility is going be very very high don't be like oh i've missed it because i think uh particularly up until tuesday you'll have a bunch of these sort of like crazy dips where everyone questions everything and then and then everything rallies back again enjoying the show well you can download my guide on how to unfuck your future it's free and it's right there in the description just click that link i think you'll love it are there any is there anything that's caught your eye that you're looking at into the election or until q4 just been looking through re-looking at meme we just speak about meme coins every show and sometimes i get sick of it but i think there's a testament to how important they are the cycle but i've been looking through a few different meme coins and stuff and thinking about any other potential trump coins or election coins um

14:20but away from yeah no i mean i was gonna say something then i realized i shouldn't say it so all right okay based on our discussion yesterday so um um i haven't really found anything that compelling away from the stuff that i've previously said in the show where I think the best buy and hold are the big ETH meme coins because they have no competition and I think they'll do well something like MOG as well which is kind of like loosely politically related I think could do quite well but yeah I'm just trying not to overthink it and just sticking with the positions I have which I think are good positions and yeah we'll see how it goes I actually put out my top four for Q4 I did see that yeah which were out of the memes.

15:11And I put Mog was one of them. Fog, which has been kind of up only, actually. It's like a Pepe adjacent meme, I would say, on Solana. And then two newer ones, which are Goat and Mudang, which I both think will do well. I do think, though, that if you do want to do absolutely nothing, then owning those Muradi themes is probably, it's tough for them to go too wrong. Although somebody did sell like 4 million of ticker Bitcoin yesterday. That's the one risk with the Murad memes, right? Like everyone really believes in the thesis and he really likes the ones which have high market caps and low numbers of holders.

15:53But then when one person sells, it's like, oh, I've got 10 million to go in one clip. And suddenly they don't look so cult-like when they just like you've been dumped on by a whale, which it's going to happen. You're going to see so many more of these as these go across 1 billion. Some SBX whale or some mog whale or some Bitcoin whale is going to sell a huge, huge amount. And that doesn't feel that good if it happens. It's okay if it happens once, but I think it's going to happen quite a few times. Yeah, I think so. So you are going to start, I think, especially as these coins go higher, I think you will start to see some crazy wicks.

16:38And I think you saw that. I feel like you saw that in altcoins in 2021. Like there are a lot of coins that are up 1000 % and stuff like that, that people must have had massive bags of. And you just seen people just going, and you just bought all the way back up. Like this crazy, crazy volatility. Like, I feel like meme coins are volatile. and but the volatility seems to just be in the micro caps or the stuff that gets rugged easily but like the big ones they're not like in the world of crypto they're not like crazy volatile you're not really seeing daily 30 to 30 percent plus moves in like larger cap meme coins but i think you will do in this post trump well in this post election world where if things go parable I think you will start to see like, like if it is true that you see multiple billion dollar meme coins and, you know, if every hundred million dollar meme coin right now is a billion dollars plus.

17:37And if every billion dollar meme coin right now is like$10 billion plus, I think you will see some really, really crazy volatility there because the liquidity will still not be that great. In my opinion, I think stuff's going to be like up three to five X or down 50%, like on a daily basis, but on like the big cap stuff, I think we're going to see stuff like that. Yeah, I mean, you have seen open interest come back a little bit. So I think open interest is starting to pick up at all-time highs. But I think part of that is the, again, if you put on the long spot, short futures, I think you get like 10 % to 15 % on the majors.

18:14So you have these sort of hedge funds coming in and being like, oh, that's great, great yield. So I think the Bitcoin, although we've seen big Bitcoin ETF inflows, part of that is just the basis trade. But that's what you would normally look for when you start to see those huge wicks on the majors, right? When open interest goes unbelievably high. I mean, Bitcoin has been moving kind of up and down 3 % to 5 % over the last few days. That's generally a sign that we're starting to pick up in volatility after a period of very, very low volatility by crypto standards, right? I think we are probably heading back that way in Q4.

18:52because a lot of, I think you've got this golden period here where if Trump gets in, people will look for trade to 2025 now, straight away, and they'll be like, oh, that's the trade. And I think you could have a left-translated cycle there even. Like people get really bulled up in November, December, maybe even start of January, and then he gets in and doesn't do any crypto policy for like nine to 12 months. So I think now's the time to own it. And then I think, yeah, Q1, you might want to reduce. Do you know what I mean? Like everyone will be so bulled up and then he'll come in. I think there's a chance that they've been saying it could be more of a VP policy thing.

19:38I think Vance has some history with crypto, particularly from the investing like VC side, that he takes it on. Isn't he apparently a m 'lady? Yes. So he follows the m 'lady Twitter account, right? I think there was a old, I think there's a JDVance.eth account, which owns like a bunch of random NFTs, but no one knows if it's him. Everyone thinks it's like a troll. But his actual Twitter account, I believe, follows the M 'Lady account. I think it still does. Well, didn't Trump tweet out against all these accounts? Maybe, I don't know. I think he did. There's like a paid for tweets thing for Donald Trump, where it's a bunch of like, I think the M 'Lady community took advantage of maybe a month ago, where he tweets out directly at you on X and a bunch of different NFT communities paid for it.

20:38So maybe it's to do with that, but maybe he is a M 'Lady. Maybe he is a M 'Lady, which is like one of the more infamous style NFT collections on ETH. it would be pretty funny if he was like a full on D gen. Um, had been in the moonshot streets ever since. What did you think? What do you think is your top four then into, into year end? I agree with you and Mark. Is it just meme coins or just any coin? It can be any coin. Like I've just told you, I have some altcoin bags as well, but I know, I don't think, I don't even remember the last time you bought an altcoin. Yeah. And we're talking about the best risk reward or just best performer.

21:15Yeah. I would say best risk reward. Yeah, because best performance is quite tough, isn't it? I would say, and so, okay, this is a top four into the elections. Best risk reward, I think. I would say Sol, Mog, Bitcoin.

21:45It's kind of running a bit thin now, isn't it? I'm going to have to say another meme coin, I think. Your goal. I don't know what the best risk reward is. And then the fourth one will be whatever meme coin is like the daily runner or the flavor of the week next week. That's what I would say. There's going to be, there's going to be, the best trade next week is going to be, because right now meme coins are like every week or every day, there's like some new thing, right? There's some new message. So whatever that is next week, that's what you want to go all in on. Even if you're not early to it, but you just go all in on it into the elections.

22:22And if Trump wins, that's the thing that will just absolutely send, I think. And then it would like crash as well. But I think that's not a trade. I mean, like fully for Q4. So you have three trades basically going for Q4, especially for anything else. Yeah, I don't know. For the fourth one. Have you ever wanted to trade Bitcoin but haven't dared try? With Plus 500 Futures, you can trade crypto without the hassle of opening a wallet. With just a few clicks, you can register and start practicing with their free and unlimited demo. See a trading opportunity? You'll be able to trade it in just two clicks.

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23:43I don't know. I don't know. I think everything else kind of seems kind of like there isn't something else that stand out to me. It would probably be a meme coin and it would probably be one of something from like Mirad's list, I would say. Another thing from maybe like SPX or Popcat or something like that. So I think you've touched upon something important there though, which is that new meta coins are important at the moment. that is something that's been a bit of a trend like a meta comes along for a little bit and then dies and maybe like the one coin or two coins from it survive and then we move on to the next thing and the next thing and the next thing and that has been a way to make money in crypto pretty, but you have to kind of be in the trenches so to speak picking up on every new thing each this week do you think, I mean I've already picked up on two that I think are Metas that will probably continue I do think the AI meta is something that's going to be with us For a long time Do you like any of the recent metas Do you think any of them are strong Or is it really just The cult thesis from Murad There was a early one this week The early meta I love the early meta I just I just loved the fact that so lucha was the one that ran there and i just love the fact that it was a the the pope the mass the catholic mascot that was like pushed by the pope that literally looked like a m 'lady and it was just it just could not be more like i don't know more like cult cabal divine this weird like divine slash cabal slash cult kind of vibe about it.

25:30It was just, which is why I think it ran, but that one was like, it was pretty special, I think. I found that one, yeah, slightly transient. I think the AI one, and let me, I would say, if yes, something's going to last, it's going to be the AI one for sure. I think it's just, it's so much bigger than some of the other ones. Let's put it that way. Is the AI over the holy meta? Yes. Yeah, my general sense of here, and we've seen, it only really came out like two, three weeks ago but you start to see i think the beginnings of ai really becoming a bigger part of crypto where maybe not you know in the next week but in the next few months this time next year i think ai is going to be a massive massive bit of crypto in fact coinbase ventures i think i put it maybe we can link to it but coinbase ventures put out a really good research piece uh thought piece this week, which was about all the different intersections of AI and crypto.

26:28And this is kind of like this world where chat GPT style interfaces then can use crypto to do a bunch of different things. And you could have AI agents which send money, trade for you, think up like investment strategies even and go out and do them themselves. In fact, we saw the first AI agent do its own transaction last week on base. So it had a wallet and it realized that in order to get better engagement, you need to start tipping people. And you had this wallet called this AI agent called Luna, I think, which started tipping people of its own accord in crypto. And I think you start to see that sort of stuff.

27:13Neemcoins is a strange way that it's come out first because I actually don't think that's going to be the main use case of AI. I think it's just going to be more a tool, another user, so to speak. I think you could end up with, honestly, hundreds of millions of users, which are more agents than actual humans. And that's how you kind of onboard hundreds of millions of people rather than just, like, we're constantly trying to, like, onboard humans. Let's be honest, it's difficult at times. But I think AI breaks down some of that onboarding issues, particularly also if it makes the onboarding easier for humans as well.

27:47Like if instead of having to create your own wallet and go through all of that, like you can just have an interface like ChatGPT and be like, hey, can you buy this coin for me? And it just goes and does it for you. And you'd be like, can you buy it for me and make sure I don't lose this amount of money, have a stop loss there. Like you can speak to it like you would any of these LLMs. I think that's going to break down the ease of people even coming into crypto and using it. And I think we're starting to see that already. which are really just ChatGBT or the Claw model or Gemini hooked up to crypto payment rails.

28:22I think Base even came out last week and said you could do one in three minutes now on AI Asia, which could do various different things on chain. Yeah, what's your view on that? I know the only real investment thesis around it right now has been some of the meme coins, but I think it just creates such a massive ballpark. You just cuss out on that last part. I missed the last part that you said. I just said, yeah, I just think it creates a massive bull case for crypto in general. Are you looking at anything in that sort of world? I personally am not looking at anything in that sort of world. But yeah, it does.

29:00AI is massive. NVIDIA is doing really well. It makes sense. With crypto, it makes sense. But I just think for me, the easier players to right now, at this point in the cycle, is to just ride the things that are showing their hands. maybe that's not a good way to look at it maybe that's too much of a like a maxi way to look at it and end up um end up missing a trend that can form or jumping on something too late so i don't know i think i don't obviously i said i've said i don't own any altcoins but if i was to buy something i would 100 look at something with an ai and nowhere else i think but it has to be it has to away from the ai meme stuff it has to be something that i think is easy to understand and easy to explain it has to be like oh i get that rather than oh this is like some crazy tech that does this this and this and it's like super complicated to explain or understand like it has to be easy for just a simple person to understand nvidia is really easy to understand they just make fucking chips right for that that powers all these computers etc that are running these um ai modules so it needs to be that level it needs to have that level of simplicity for me and so far the ai stuff i've looked at it's like i start reading it i just think i just i just it's too you know if you can't explain it in one sentence then i think you miss out a big chunk of retail yeah so it may sound very basic of me but i'm a very basic investor yeah i think the um virtuals was one this week that caught that sort of attention where you literally just pay it's just a marketplace where you pay in virtuals for the ai agent but i yeah that one's a little bit tough because i'm not too sure if like all the ai agents will always be on a virtual marketplace they're just they were just the first mover and people have like can now create them there but i I think it'll be quite easy to create these AI agents with time.

30:56The other big play is the deep-in play. So like you just said, NVIDIA is valuable because these GPUs are super valuable, but you can decentralize the excess compute power from these GPUs, and then you can build the decentralized infrastructure for these GPUs. So some of the more successful ones in crypto so far have that sort of feel to them. deep in as a as a whole sector which has got which is not just ai they've done it for storage like back in the day like file coin that sort of stuff and then they've done it with um even more recently with like helium with with like mobile networks um i do think you'll probably see that a little bit a little bit of that in uh in ai though i don't know if that has like parabolic use cases like you said it's just a little bit early and i i i think part of it will just go back to the l1 So what you've seen is a massive, massive increase in the users on base, for example, and on Solana in the last couple of weeks.

31:57Solana hit an all-time high for users of the chain. And before, everyone was like, oh, it's just bots. But actually now, if you start changing that terminology to agents, I think people start being like, oh, okay, well, they're kind of like humans. So I think that's basically how we can scale, which has kind of been one of the main issues for crypto. So I think AI now maybe provides the product market fit for it to be able to do a lot of the stuff that it said it could do. Yeah. I just wanted to highlight, by the way, that our weekly curse of the Friday market dump is back. Really? Where is it now?

32:41Bitcoin's at 69.3K, I think. I mean, is that a dump? handle change handle changes are psychologically definitely dumb especially from 70 to 69 but yeah percentage-wise it's not really yeah i think the thing is and we have to kind of recalibrate because when bitcoin's at 55 or 50k like it was a month well back in august um it's quite different than when it's at 70 70k like even the move from 70 to 90 isn't that big in percentage terms um I mean, it's sold down to 164. It's a pretty decent move. Yeah, wow, that is a decent move in Solana. So stuff is, Ether's below 2.5. I think there were some polls which were maybe reporting Kamala gaining some ground or something like that.

33:34I'm not sure. It's difficult. I saw an interview with Nate Silver actually yesterday, I think it was. And he was basically like, just don't trust any polls. Like the actual trust, like if you don't trust Polymarket, don't think polls are better. Because he said that the actual quality of polls he's seen in this election has been absolutely dyes. He only trusts the New York Times and that's about it. And I think, honestly, there's a lot of polling companies that could easily skew their data that they are often, he links it back to the idea that they often hold previous biases. so um it's very very difficult for them to like flip or they'll always make it like one point ahead for one candidate and that's just like not what he's seen at all in some of the polling yeah so um yeah his his view is that the actual quality of polls is really really low and um to be very very wary about it and i kind of agree with that too i i don't know if there's a perfect way to look at this because i don't think the polls are good and maybe polymark can be skewed too and maybe or calci the one in the u.s but i just think that he's ahead um going into this uh although i do think it's going to be it's difficult to judge by how much yeah it's you sort of have polymarket which can be skewed by wales i don't trust any of the polls because they're obviously all trying to paint pictures and have biases nate silver i think historically has provided the best data but he hasn't always been right he just sort of like provides probabilities if that makes sense yeah so i don't yeah he has a 55 45 trump kamala he was quite you know he's it's interesting because he had kamala marginally ahead for a while as trump started to take the lead on polymarket now he has trump ahead as sort of like a lagged statistic to polymarket so there is an argument to say polymarket perhaps is more of a real-time indicator, but it's probably a real-time indicator of sentiment.