Crypto Whipsaws on Tariff Uncertainty | OSF and Mando | Rekt Vision

0:00Before we start, I want to take a minute to talk about our friends at Bitwise. Bitwise has a lot to offer to people like us who live and breathe crypto crypto every single day. They're a crypto asset manager with$10 billion in client assets and a team of more than 100 people across the US and Europe. They've got the world's largest crypto index fund, a wide range of crypto ETFs, on-chain solutions, you name it. They also manage private alpha strategies, have SMAs for large investors, and are one of the largest institutional Ethereum staking providers. And by the way, they've been doing it all since 2017.

0:33These guys are pretty much OGs. So check out Bitwise, go to bitwiseinvestments.com and see all they've got to offer. That's bitwiseinvestments.com or just email james at bitwiseinvestments.com and let them know that Rekt brought you over. There are a million ways to access crypto. Do it with those who are all in on crypto, who care about the ecosystem, who live and breathe crypto every day. Look for Bitwise at bitwiseinvestments.com. And of course, always carefully consider the extreme risks associated with crypto.

1:32Well, hello, guys. I'm on location, so to speak, but we are doing another episode of REC Vision this week. Good to have you again, OSF. It does feel as though the market, I wouldn't say it's completely over, but it's definitely been a bit of a soggy end to the week, Bitcoin heading back towards$105K and some weakness and alts. I think we kind of predicted that this could be a little bit of a mini top where we broke through all-time high, but how have you been doing over the last week? yeah i think um i feel like the big theme this week has been the legendary trader legendary legendary british trader james winn who has been running billion dollar risk positions in bitcoin but you know levered longs taking leverage up to like 40x 50x etc um and i think that's moved and created quite a lot of volatility in the Bitcoin price.

2:28I think when you're one person who does that and you have one position on, like you haven't split it across wallets and whatnot, everyone's out to get you, right? Like everyone, big whales can be like, okay, cool. Let's just liquidate him. Let's just short it, liquidate him, cover our short, go long and ride that whipsaw basically. And I think that's kind of what's been happening this week. People have been hunting his longs. And I almost think like he's sort of been tricked into it, right? Like the market massively rallied when he was long. It all looked good. It probably gave himself an entry point to short and then just nuked it in his face basically.

3:07And then eventually he did got liquidated. And I think he lost almost$100 million in a week. Apparently just a random guy. Apparently some random guy in the UK. I don't know if I believe it's just some random guy or not. I don't know what you believe, but it's definitely an interesting one. I think that's what's caused volatility in Bitcoin. I think there was quite a lot of open interest out there on alts when I looked the other day on alts and memes, and some of that is now starting to get wiped out too. So that's generally, in my opinion, like a bullish move for the market. Like you want the greedy leverage to come out of the system and to see those liquidations before we can move higher again in a scenario where the positioning is much cleaner.

3:55So I think we do, I personally think we do bounce from here. But yeah, like he was, when he was there swinging this stuff around, the writing was kind of on the wall for Bitcoin, I think. Hi, Raoul here. Listen, I think we've got until 2030 before the economic singularity arrives. Now it might not be the exact date, but it's around then. So we have about six years to figure out how to unfuck our future. I've put together a report to help you called Prepare for 2030. It's going to help you take the first steps in that journey to make sure you're secure past 2030. So just click on the link below and start your journey now.

4:33So I think that points to kind of what we've been saying is that we felt as though it was getting a little bit frothy. I think last week we said that you were about 70 % invested. I was maybe slightly lower than that, more like 60%. And in today, I've got myself back up for like 80 % because I felt as though a lot of that froth has kind of come out a little bit from alts and from even from majors even. And maybe people aren't familiar with James Wynn, but he's become this almost infamous trader in the crypto markets where he got himself long over a billion dollars of Bitcoin towards the top and then got short and then got long again, but chopped himself up and has lost$100 million, it looks like, on Hyperliquid over the last week.

5:19And I think it just, like you said, it points to what we were starting to see in the market, which is that money was becoming very easy to make, but like just being long. And I think people were moving towards more risky stuff, and a lot of that stuff is down 20%, 30 % over the last week. And now it feels like a good point for me to kind of get a bit more along. So I've been buying a lot more of the ETH beta plays, which I feel like could play well over the next few months, ETH alongside FA and a couple of other trades there. But I think it's good for the market, this kind of have a little bit of a retest.

6:00If you just kind of went straight line up through 110 to 120 to 130, I just think that the pullback would be even more aggressive. Whereas now we could consolidate a little bit here around, 105 to 110k and I think that point's a much better position for us to go higher over the next month or two. Have you been making any trades over the last 24 hours, 48 hours? I haven't really done much to be honest with you. I feel like I'm positioned for an alt season and I don't feel the need to have to trade around that position right now I think. Like this week did seem like an obvious, it seemed like a really obvious point to sell risk and be able to buy that Clara.

6:46Like, I think that was really writing on the wall, maybe on whenever it was Monday or Tuesday. But, you know, I just, I just think the, for me, that's like forest and trees. And I think I'm just better off holding the positions I like for an old season and hoping that plays out. I think what we've seen is just clearly a very technical move. and I think it's a very short-term technical move. And the underlying fundamentals haven't really changed. And if you look at global liquidity and the US money supply chart, et cetera, et cetera, all of that stuff remains the same this week. I guess there has been some back and forth, some headlines on tariffs, but I don't think, when I saw the first headline on the court ruling, my initial assumption was that there's no way this stands.

7:39It just seemed kind of irrelevant. When the markets rallied on that, I felt like that wasn't really the reason why the markets rallied. I think it was just markets wanting to rally, probably a sign of positioning or being under-risked again. We didn't even really sell off that much once it was overturned. I think, for me, that's a nothing headline. For me, the markets look like they're trading technically very strong in terms of equities. We still have a lot of room to follow and track on that global liquidity chart. And I think crypto, we just saw a huge uptick in leverage and certain individuals displaying their positions for all to come and attack.

8:18And I kind of think we've seen that story finished now with some liquidations across the board. So from here, I do think it's probably, in my opinion, I think it's a good point to buy risk. And what's interesting is we keep talking about alt-season, but Bitcoin dominance that has actually rallied in the last couple of days or so we're back up to 64.1 % and a lot of volts are down they're down pretty bad you know stuff is down 15 20 25 30 percent in the past week or so and if you've you know I think a couple of weeks now we've had people asking like I have some spare dry you know dry powder should I buy now should I wait and this to me feels like a good entry point now on that stuff with this backup I think yeah i agree i think it could last for another week or so maybe even two weeks i think this consolidation isn't just that you just go straight back to all-time high i think you can kind of chop around this sort of level here um i think in terms of when i've really started to to like reduce risk it would be mid mid-june um or like late june let's say but i I think we've got another week at least of chop, and then I think we can push on higher from there.

9:36In terms of majors, maybe we can go through it a little bit because, like you said, Bitcoin dominance has gone higher. ETH hasn't had a terrible week, though, right? And I think that's something that we've flagged on the show again is that ETH has definitely been outperforming versus some of the other major L1s. The other trade has been hype, which maybe we'll get to a bit later. But out of those three majors, Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, maybe XRP, what are you drawn to at the moment? I still really like ETH. I think, once again, nothing has changed from what we spoke about. And I spoke about this with Raul the week before as well.

10:13It feels like it has momentum. Obviously, you had the SBET news this week of, I guess, trying to create a macro strategy for ETH. um you should get into that a little bit maybe yeah so it's been the first it's been the first company that's really come out and done this eth treasury strategy it's been noticeable that bitcoin has had this and even solana's had this but this is the first company to come and do this on eth they they have bought 450 million dollars looks like of even they have um a number of different ogs like advisors to the company is this going to be a trend you feel like it feels like this could be the start of something good for each from institutional adoption at least.

10:56I think so. Look, Sharplink's stock year-to-date is now up 10x. It's up 1 ,000%. And I think it moved, what, 500%, 600 % on this news. It keeps going up, actually. It's gone pretty crazy. It's at$90 now. I saw DC Investor write about buying it at$20. Now it's at$90. So this has gone completely parabolic. And we saw GameStop rally when that got announced. I believe there was something else that also went a lot higher when it got announced. But it seems like, you know, just having...

11:51You can move to real money with as little as$100 once your account is approved. And the great thing is that in addition to crypto, Plus500 gives you access to a wide range of instruments. S &P 500, NASDAQ, gas, and much more. Explore equity indices, energy, metals, Forex, and beyond. With a simple and intuitive platform, you could trade anytime, anywhere. Experience the fast, accessible futures trading you've been waiting for with Plus500. With over 20 years of experience, Plus500 is your gateway to the markets. Visit us.plus500.com to learn more. Trading in futures involves the risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

12:26Not all applicants will qualify. Plus 500. It's trading with a plus.

12:35Crypto treasury, whether it's Bitcoin or, you know, apparently ETH as well, it seems to allow or open your stock up to a new pool of buyers. and whether that's a younger crowd and they start perceiving these stocks as meme stocks, whether in this case it's a bunch of ethos who have a lot of capital, who've decided, okay, now let's just buy this thing and pump it because that strengthens the narrative for us. I'm not sure exactly what it is, but if you're a corporate out there and you're crypto curious or crypto friendly, I don't see why, and you have assets to allocate, or if you have the ability to raise capital, whether it's through debt or equity, I don't see why you wouldn't do this right now because it feels like you can instantly multiply your market cap.

13:28And that may be a short-term phenomenon. Who knows? Maybe this starts to feel diluted over time, but it's pretty crazy, really. I think there's a lot of first-mover advantage that we see with this. Strategy was the first company to do this and it still trades at like 2x book and maybe Sharpling will be the first person to do this with ETH and we could see a number of different companies coming in now to do this very quickly it's very clear that the equity markets have got the idea that buying crypto from an equity perspective is a good trade like we've seen this with sole strategies with the sub-planer we've this with strategy with with bitcoin and now it feels like the trade is going to happen as well as well with e and it hasn't happened up up until now with e but it it just feels it just feels like there's a bit i'm gonna say this but and it feels like when it goes higher it's still a bit of a pain trade it's the first time i felt that in about 18 months it always felt like e was a pain trade lower and now it feels like when it rallies no one really owns it or like everyone's kind of forgotten about it or sold it and moved on to other L1s.

14:40So I think the pain trade is maybe higher, even if it's more technical rather than fundamental as a move. Let's put it that way. The other big move has been Hyperliquid, which is kind of done roughly a 3x now from its low in early April. What do you think of that as a trade? It's been very popular with some of the stalwarts of crypto, at the moment like there's some of the well-known traders some of those got involved with the airdrop early on um it's obviously a very very well-known uh decentralized perp platform now um and it also does spot you can buy a bunch of like bitcoin there or a bunch of other spot uh cryptos there what do you think of that at 32 fdv is quite high at 32 billion but they are buying back 700 to 800 million of the current market cap a year do you think that's that's the thing to own here or do you think it's kind of that trade's done i've started to become a bit more receptive to it i think at the beginning i was like this is just another perp decks i'm not it feels like a very crowded trade i'm not sure why everyone thinks this thing is revolutionary as time has gone on i've sort of come to understand that number one they've obviously done a great job marketing where it's not even really the team that's marketing they just have like super die hard people die hard whales on it marketing it the entire time second thing is i think there is this sort of negative sentiment towards centralized exchanges for multiple reasons and especially after the coinbase thing recently there are multiple multiple reasons there's a negative sentiment from ct towards centralized exchanges so this hyper liquid sort of feels like that the protest against that right like i'm going to do all my part trading here because you know vacu centralizes exchanges all that kind of stuff so i think that's another reason um why people are onto it as well and it's obviously a good product you know like you never really hear it had some issue i guess like when was it like a couple of months ago when i hit when i hit 10 um um but since then it's it seems like in terms of usability i've not seen like a single person complain about it and it seems like it's um uh a solid um solid product so i kind of get it and i kind of go all the way to 100 it feels like to me it clearly has market beta so i think it will trade with bitcoin and it will it won't be one of these alts that's like left stuck in the mud it's clearly going to move up and down with markets i think um so i do think i would put hype if you're looking for altcoins i would put hype as one of my picks in that bucket i don't own any personally but um i would have that as one of my picks now i think and that's i feel like that's the first time i've ever said that about hyperliquid obviously at the other highs but um just my perception of it has changed and again with the whole james wind stuff like all his trading wasn't hyperliquid all his liquidations were hyperliquid like it's really capturing a lot of attention he's probably going to make a ton of money from the next airdrop right like from anywhere from from the crazy risk he's taken um but yeah that i think is an interesting um well i don't think he's going to make a hundred million but but yeah it is true that it's been at the forefront i think of people's minds obviously this trader that got liquidated has been doing his trades on hyper liquid and that's been a very strong marketing you could say the fact that he got liquidated maybe isn't the best marketing, but Hyperliquid is definitely capturing attention.

18:23That's for certain. A lot of big trades are being put on there. He was low, 1.2 billion Bitcoin at one stage. So it's good to see that there is kind of a competitor to Binance and Coinbase and all these other big exchanges when it comes to that from the decentralized realm, let's say. I would say that here, a 2X would put it close to like Solana's market cap. You know, it would really put into question that FDV. A current market cap, it's much lower because a lot of it is still held by the foundation. But if it was a cap... I need to check, but I can think of this. Yeah. I think obviously if it 2x you're talking about a market cap of close to 70 billion so on an FTV that's high I would say I think it's a good trade I really am saying I sold some this week a large bit of what I had owned this week just because I felt as though that trade can still happen but maybe everyone was piling into it this week it's like this is the thing to own and i generally don't like i like owning crypto when it feels like nobody owns it and it's a pain trade rather than when everyone owns it and it's like the consensus trade and i feel like hype became a bit more consensus this week right everyone's like oh this is the thing to own yeah so i think um i think it's a really good platform it's done very very well i just think it needs a period here of like consolidation let's say because it's not it's not cheap anymore or at least it's it's it's gone from being cheap to maybe not being cheap it does feel as though you've seen a weakness across the board and a lot of the more risky stuff though like the ai coins are way back down again um the mean coins are way back down again you've seen particularly solana i think are you worried a little bit here about solana and and the fact that a lot of the more risky coins are solana based like part coin heading back to like 1 billion here ai 16d back to 240 million and yet coins like spx have gone above 1 billion and look pretty comfy do you think you think the market is maybe caught offside there a little bit on on what to own in the risky bits of the market do you think that they're too solana exposed i don't know if it's like too slana exposed like i feel like fart coin maybe started out as slana beta but i think it's just its own sort of meme coin now really like i don't think i don't think anyone i don't feel like anyone is buying fart coin thinking oh this is this is like good soul beta i'm gonna outperform soul i think they're just looking at it as a meme coin in the set of meme coins and you know seeing it as a potential leader of it kind of like pepe and pepe actually does move a lot with the youth to be fair but i also i always think most people are just in pepe for the meme coin itself rather than for the youth exposure so um i'm not too concerned about that stuff i do think what both what these coins are showing the same is just true for pepe actually because that's moved up aggressively and down aggressively i think what these coins are showing is they do have a very high beta to the market and you know fart coin is up a lot remember it was traded as low as like 250 mil market cap so even at the current price one bill it's up 5x off the lows and that's a significant outperformance versus many other meme coins there are very few other like you know nine figure market cap meme coins that went on and 5x back, not that close to all-time highs, but had a decent bounce off the bottom.

22:24So when you have something like that, when you have these pullbacks, it will move down very aggressively as well because lots of people are in the money in a big way and they're taking profits. So I'm not that worried. I think it's just going to be like a very volatile coin going forward. And again, I mentioned at the beginning of the show, I think if you have dry powder, now is a good time to add risk in alts and memes. And Farcoin would be another thing that would be on my list as well, Farcoin and Hype. But that's a big, decent drop in Farcoin. That's down from 1.6 to 1. So there's a pretty hefty backup there.

23:04Yeah, I just noticed this from the last 12 months that all the major coins, I know Pepe and Marga and Rekt, I would say is their own type of thing, but it feels as though a lot of the risk-taking happened on Solana. And Solana is the consensus chain for risk-taking. But if that changes at all, we've seen that with like ETH NFTs, they can almost underperform even more because people get worried about them being an ETH exposure. You know what I mean? and part of me does think that the biggest risk to even like traders and things can do really well like farccoin is that that they are solana beta or they're perceived in some way solana beta um you know crypto punks is a great trade but i think it got lost in e beta to a certain extent and if solana faces any sort of a challenge here i think it is a bit it is a bit of a worry hype is one angle and then Eek is kind of the other and it has been underperforming this week and I think we've we picked up on that relatively early and you know I've been vocal that you know I moved a lot of my Solana exposures to Eek here but if that continues I would be worried for that bit of the market I do think um people are maybe underestimating how much these things can underperform if people get worried about the actual chain itself and I'm you know I'm a big fan of solana but um it is is worth noting that a lot of this stuff feels like solana beta yeah on the bad days it really does like far coin is a really has had a really bad basically couple of weeks after having a very good few few months or a couple of months but you can tell that part of that is just like a is a solana trade right people are a little bit worried about about that being the um the main trade so what have you bought then you mentioned that you started adding risk yesterday or today what are you looking at like just bitcoin or alts or majors or i've been buying eath i've been buying eath like i think that is for me it is one of the better trades here from a risk reward standpoint from a sleep adjusted return standpoint I feel as though ETH is in a good spot.

25:31It's suddenly now trading above its 200-day moving average. You have companies coming out and saying, hey, we're going to do the ETH treasury strategy for the first time. And I think that will grow because it's very easy to do with the ETFs. And I think after Pectra, it's got this ultrasound money bit back to it. But I just think whenever ETH goes higher, I just think it's a pain trade. Like ETH going to 4K and Solana staying where it is, I think is a massive pain trade for this market. And that's generally how people are asked how we trade. That's how I think we look at things. We look at where we think the most pain can get caused often by trade.

26:14And then when that lines up with a good fundamental thesis, I think it can work. And for me, I think ETH can go to 3K pretty easily here and maybe even push on from there. And I've been adding that. My bags are mainly Bitcoin and I moved it from Solana to ETH or ETH Exposure. But on this dip, I've been buying ETH and ETH Exposure. So it's been ETH and some ETH memes as well. And you can see that's where the strength is. Like SVX going back above a billion, I think is very noticeable. pepe's been relative it's down a little bit today but it's been relatively strong mog's been a bit been a bit weaker today i would say it's one i've been buying um and but even rex you know rex has is like it's staying very strong for for a meme and i think part of that is also like it's been seen as like a really emerging eth meme or eth trade here and i think people like that so i um yeah that's that's what i'm buying them back up for like 80 let's say of max risk and if we go lower i would buy more if i don't think this is a market where i'm worried in any way not really that worried about the tariff stuff i think i've kind of come to your sort of view here that everything gets sensationalized a little bit here and um i think bitcoin could hang out at like 104k for the next week or so but i think it could outperform i don't want to miss that rally to like three maybe even three and halfway yeah i like that i i personally agree with your need and i think i think as soon as it hits 3k people are really going to start fomoing in that's my view because i think once you get back to 3k or above people have seemed to have more confidence like oh shit like this thing is back and the right people are pushing it and it has regained a narrative and then people you sort of like do the maths and look at you know eth btc and think oh wow there's still even that 3k it's still whatever it is like 60 or 70 percent below where it should be where it should be in terms of that relationship and that i mean if ebc was back to the highs it would put eith at like 7k now i think something like that which is a huge move from where it is now so you know it's a tripling in its level so um i really like that as a player and i do really like eith bases or perceived eith bases to um to play that i think is really is really interesting like if we do have a proper old season here which is another thing I believe in that whole ecosystem is really going to get moving I think I think we're over the dark days you can tell we're over the dark days because when we bring it up you don't just laugh in my face anymore so I bring it, I brought it up because I always said that we'd have the moment where we felt like that could shift and I think that this maybe that's where I'm okay as a trader when I can tell when an error clip just suddenly shifts it and I just feel like the market is suddenly offside.

29:30The worst performance of the top 300 coins of the last week are Fartcoin, Bonk, Radium. That says a lot. That tells you that the market is very long Solana exposure and if that is to get launched, I think it can really cause some damage And I like all those three trades, but it just feels as though positioning can drive so much of performance. And I just feel like the positioning is off here. So if I'm going to be long, I think the best risk reward is in the ETH stuff. And I think the pain trade is that to go higher. It does feel as though my guess here is that we could spend another week in this sort of limbo.

30:21Altcoin seasons we spoke about before, they last for like four weeks. Would you even call this an altcoin season yet? We had that brief dip from 65 % to 62.5 % of Bitcoin dominance, and now we're back to 64%. Is this what we have for an altcoin season these days? 2 % moving Bitcoin dominance? Or do you think we're still waiting for a proper altcoin season? How do you mean exactly? I would say like, do you think altcoin season has started? Oh, yeah, I can answer that. Because that's an important question here because like, then you start the clock on, you have like four to eight weeks of it happening.

31:03And if you don't think it's even started, then maybe we can wait. I think we're at the beginning of it. I really do. I think Bitcoin dominance has topped. I think you started to see this move in altcoin over the last couple of weeks. And I think the mistake people make is when you have a day like today, everyone thinks, oh, it's all over, it's dead. What you have to remember, and I'm going back to 2021, which I still believe was the last true alt season, is even in the middle of it, when things were going crazy, you'd have days where stuff would be up 100%, 200 % on big market cap coins. And then you'd have days when they'd be down like 30, 40, 50%.

31:47And then they'd go back up again, like 100%. It was like crazy volatility, right? So we've seen a decent rally off the lows in many coins. We've now seen a decent pullback. It doesn't mean it's over just because you have one pullback. I mean, oh, it's not happening anymore and we're moving on from it. I think you will get pullbacks naturally. There are going to be pullbacks. And I think those rallies and pullbacks are going to start to get more aggressive, but, um, people can like kill themselves in old season trading around because you're chasing momentum and you're like, Oh man, this thing's up so much.

32:21I've got to like jump in and buy. Then it crashes and you think, Oh fuck, it's over. I'm going to sell it. Then it rips back up again. You have to really, really train yourself to like buy lows and sell highs if you're trying to trade it or buy lows if you're trying to deploy capital. and um that's the thing i think is uh it's is tricky to do but um i think we're at the beginning of it because i think we're seeing we're seeing btc dominance top seeing eth starting to rally you're seeing movement and momentum and you're seeing well not more importantly but also important you're seeing a lot of people talk about it like i'd say my timeline split 50 50 between people who believe in it's happening there's the people who don't but a few months ago that was probably like you know 75 percent of people not thinking it would ever happen again potentially um and i think there are some smart people out there who i respect and you know raul included who believe in this as a realistic possibility and the way i see it is like whether it happens or not is different to whether you want to take the bet or not right if if we are at the start to this and you do have a proper old season like 2021 you see bitcoin dominance drop to 60 55 50 it will drop all the way to 40 in 21 you will see coins and i'm not just talking about you know low caps i'm talking about like coins with already billions of dollars of market cap you'll see that stuff 10x you'll see like a huge move in the total three market cap and that upside is huge and let's say we don't get an alt season but we still rally and bitcoin leads the way then fine like you know maybe alts underperform but you're not going to to lose a ton of money.

33:58And then let's say we have this great big sell-off, but then you're bearish. You're not believing that anyway. So the upside downside for me is you have to play for the alt season. You have to take that risk. And even if it doesn't happen, if you're someone who's bullish and you don't get an alt season, your worst case scenario is you've been in an asset that has underperformed the best performer. But the other side, and it depends how you assign that probability, but even if you're sending a 10 % probability to alt season, you should still have some positioning for it because when it happens, it will move very aggressively and you don't want to be in a position where shit's up 500 % and you're like, fuck, I missed it.

34:36Now it's alt season, should I be buying here? And that's when it starts to get dicey because that's when you start having this crazy price action which is going to kill it, basically. Yeah, I think I agree with that. I think, to be clear though, it does kind of match up with a little bit of what we saw with the global liquidity three-month lag chart or the 10-week lag chart. We did see a little bit of a dip around this sort of time. So it kind of matches up that we could hang around here at like 105, 104K, let's say on Bitcoin, maybe even down to like 103, 102. But it does feel as though the trend after that would be pretty aggressively higher.

35:15So even if you're following, you know, I don't need to think, I just need to follow global liquidity here, then this does kind of match up with what he's been saying. And I agree that people are perhaps throwing away the concept of an altcoin season or at least just eat out performing here a little bit too early. I think that's been the dominant narrative for a long, long time. But I do think that this could last for a few weeks here of at least until

35:51Bitcoin can go higher but I do think some of the altcoins can do better I don't know if it will translate into the really left curve stuff just because I said with Solana I'm less instructive right now I think that's a big risk for a lot of the left curve stuff you've got to be very wary that Bitcoin going higher I don't think necessarily means like Bitcoin goes higher or virtuals goes higher or AI-16Z goes higher. It feels as though that correlation is not going to be as strong. But I do think it can mean a lot of ETH beta goes higher. That's just my call.

36:34Anything else you've seen this week that's been interesting? I think we've seen the other big move has been InfoFi. I don't know if you guys, you've been paying attention to this at all, But this has been the rise of the mindshare sort of platforms. Kaito has been the biggest one. And you see a huge number of airdrops and kind of, let's say, benefits to people in that sort of ecosystem. This is kind of like the payments layer for attention, you would say. And Kaito has been the main platform for that. They basically give out rewards for users that tweet about different projects. and to a large extent that's dominated the narrative in crypto recently um you've seen loudio has been a very very big big big um benefit beneficiary of this over the last few days but what do you think of this info by trend it's kind of taken the mantle from internet capital markets is the main thing in crypto at the moment are you fading it or do you think it's something that's going to last it's a funny one with info five because there aren't really like that many trades you can put on to express it right now.

37:40Like we've got through these metas of AI, internet capital markets, meme coins, animal coins, all this stuff. And there are usually loads of coins in those sectors, if you like, where you can buy and sell. With InfoFi, there's really like two coins. There's Cookie and Kaito. And I guess there's some other stuff that's coming like Laudio, et cetera. I think it's interesting. And I think it's something that will grow a lot bigger because

38:12coins in crypto and not just coins to be honest with you any asset things often trade on attention and speculation and being able to create technology to drive certain attention to tokens I think should be powerful and if you're kind of like owning the tech if you're owning the shovels or owning the tech that should be something that's worth quite a lot I think so I do think it's interesting I think it's here to stay what I do think However, as I know with Kaito, for example, people talk a lot about like, oh, you know, these guys make a ton of revenue because projects will go over to Kaito, will pay them a certain fee and then they get on board with the platform.

38:48And then, you know, they'll have influencers trying to tweet about it and create content about it in order to earn points. And that business model, I think, works. The problem is it's a very high cost and revenues for them right now are very high. the problem is um it's very easy to replicate have competitors and basically strip away those costs it's very easy to create a decentralized version of it so there's no cost at all and the other problem is like for them to grow and scale the more projects you have that come on the less attractive it becomes for new projects to jump on because your attention then becomes diluted with other projects compared to if there's just one or two projects on there so So I have a feeling that right now, I think it feels new and it's all very well polished.

39:34And I think people love it because you can earn basically free money from tweeting about stuff. And anything where you can earn free money, I think is a good business model. But I think my hunch is the market caps of some of this stuff will come lower over time because I think you will see... I think the whole space will grow massively, but you will see a lot more competition. and you will see costs for people who want to earn that engagement go down materially. And as a result, you'll see the revenues of these platforms go down materially as well. I saw an interesting tweet the other day, which is like, we haven't created anything new in crypto for many years.

40:13Kaito has just undisclosed paid chills done in a different way. And we've started to see a return of even the ICO platform with Echo, with Kobe's platform. Do you think that's what it is? Do you think we're just like, we get caught up with these narratives and they're really just old narratives being created again? Kind of feels like that a little bit here with crypto, like even with internet capital markets, it feels like ICO is done in a different way. And now it feels like with InfoFi, we've tried a lot of different times to make this work. this feels like the most professional way of doing of doing it but it doesn't necessarily feel like we're we're really advancing crypto with this sort of stuff i think it's sort of mixed i think there's a combination of these being genuine attempts to solve inefficiencies that do exist you know like page hills is probably a very inefficient market if this is a way to make it more efficient and also you know kind of like make it more transparent as well in some ways too because everyone can see the numbers, right?