Crypto’s Last Chance Before the FED - REKT Vision

26:05Right. But I'm just not too sure. Like search trends for crypto are touching the lows of the year again. Coinbase is back down to 500 on the app store when it was in the top 100 a few months ago. Like, I'm not too sure if we've got another shot this year of getting in, you know, hundreds of thousands of people again. So I agree. I don't think so. And people are honestly like you see it on the streets here in New York. You know, last night it was Thursday. and the bars are lively, but half empty. Restaurants are lively, but half empty. And people, you talk to people and they're like, literally the comment that I get all the time is nobody has any money.

26:44And so at the end of the day, right? Like people are not going to be buying Solana or Dogecoin or whatever it is if they don't really have money to socialize for a place like this. It's more of a priority than adding to their crypto portfolio. and we hear it over and over. It's been a long time that people just say, it's just nobody has money. Yeah, it's an interesting point because a lot of people have talked about the weakness in the US consumer just because of inflation, which is like an interesting mix. If you own assets, you're probably not doing terribly, but the US consumer data has not been as strong for a while.

27:24But yeah, I just think that people probably have just been a little bit burnt for the last three months and that just takes time. You can't just get them back in in December. The water's warm. I think it just takes a little bit more time. So that's what makes me think that these sort of narratives, which may not even be that big in a bull market, they become louder in a bear market. We'll maybe go on to what has been strong this week, which has kind of been that rotation that I touched upon. So a lot of L1s having a strong period, which aren't Salon, which aren't ETH. If you look at the dominance charts for pretty much every other L1.

27:57So if we go down here, like Ton's up 23%. Even Cardano's up 15%. BNB up 13%. You know, BNB's had a good cycle, but it's interesting to see Solana really outperform, sorry, underperform the majority of these. I think the one that had the strongest week, which has been having probably the strongest month so far, has been Sui, which broke a dollar. I think with a lot of these, it's difficult because you get under the hood and there's not a ton happening. There's growth, but it's not like tons of meme coin trading is happening there. It's not like a huge amount of DeFi is moving there. Sui's had a growth in its DeFi, but it's more just looking for the next trade, it feels like.

28:41So I don't know if these are like 10x plays. I don't know if it's like buying Solana last year at$20, where it can go all the way up to$200. But it does feel like there's a rotation here. And people are wary of that Solana narrative being a little less strong and looking for alternatives. Have you looked at any of these? I think that you just nailed it in the head, right? That comment, right? Like people moving, rotating out of the Solana trade into what could be the next trade. I don't really think it's very fundamental to your point, right? You and I, we spent probably, you know, 23 hours a day on crypto, crypto Twitter and surrounded by crypto people.

29:21So the only time, and I'm not going to mention which chain just to kind of not get any trouble from the others, but my former colleagues at Fireblocks, one of these chains is really, really penetrating Asia. And it's not something that I would have picked up sitting here in New York or you sitting in Europe. But still, I can't name one NFT collection or one meme coin or one thought leader in any of these chains. Like I know Mo from Aptos because, you know, obviously he's got a trajectory in the space, but I know Raul's involved with Sweet. But those are people that are, you know, tangential to the rest of my life and not really, you know, everybody knows Vitalik, Rash and like all this other people that are part of the main chain.

30:06So, yeah, I don't know, man. I think it's probably just liquid funds looking for the next Solana-like move and positioning for if we do get a bull market, yes, these are going to probably outperform just in the nature of how more risk they carry. For me, I think last time I was here, we spoke about rather just sleep nice with Ether, Bitcoin, and Solana. And hopefully that 4Xs. And if I leave a 6X on the table, but I don't risk a down 80%, I am much happier with that than trying to figure out why my bag of alt ones is down 42 % in a week. So for me, that's how I position myself. But you could definitely see the app rotation just playing out.

30:53So out of those four, let's include Sui, let's say. What do you think is the best risk reward out of Bitcoin, ETH, Solana, and Sui here?

31:03So risk adjusted returns, I think Bitcoin. That's what I feel as well. I feel like Bitcoin, I almost feel like... Because for a lot of those OL1s, I'll let you finish, but I just feel as though they're also counting on users. And that's kind of why Solana, I think, is under threat. But yeah, maybe you explain why. Yeah, I just think, again, Bitcoin has almost a natural bid through the ETFs that none of these other tokens have. The gold story will, I think, translate at some point. The other tokens don't have that. Ether, like we said, not really its cycle. Solana has had a great run already, like an insane run.

31:43so hard to see it absent any real new things, hard to see it continue to outperform. And then just using a random alt L1, it's a good cheap call to the upside of like a major kind of like rally. But in that point, Bitcoin will also run up significantly. And so that's why for me, I think risk adjusted, it's much better to just hold kind of like Bitcoin and sleep easy and let the boomers kind of just fit up your bags. Yeah, I agree. I just feel like I'm debating whether to do like a little bit of even levered Bitcoin, like have normal Bitcoin and then have like a slice of degen like levered Bitcoin or have Sui because I feel as though I like those two as the best risk reward.

32:28But to be honest, I just feel like Bitcoin is the best trade. I don't think without major adoption, which I feel like we're not going to have until the end of this year, for example, or maybe even a few months after that as well, just by the way that this cycle's already gone. I think it just really becomes a Bitcoin trade. Like it becomes a waterfall of what people buy if Bitcoin goes to 100K rather than tons of users coming on and trading meme coins. Like what would you want to trade? So yeah, I'm kind of going back and forth. I think BNB could be a good trade too. You know, CZ's coming out of jail.

33:02That could be a good trade. They've turned it around. There's a meme coin on there, which I think could go to a billion, which is Simon's cat. there's a few different things on that chain where I'm like, I think they see a large amount of users, nowhere near the size of Solana, but Binance has kind of come through the woods here. And I just feel as though that might not be a terrible one, but it's a good one. Actually, I like it. I like it. I think I'd rather phone that than like one of the other old ones. Old ones too, they have like all these weird unlock schedules and there's a lot of like backroom dealing.

33:39People like to pretend that everything's clean and clear. It's not. It's not, folks. Like, there's a lot of stuff that nobody knows. And so, yeah, I'd rather have something that's out there. It's Lindy in that sense. And not worry about the drawdowns. If I'm going to write drawdowns, I'd rather write them with meme coins. Like, yeah, I don't feel so bad when, like, Mog or Pepe goes down 40 % because, fuck, it's a meme coin. Yeah. Right? Whereas if my alt L1 is down 40. The only ulti one that I have, and I never should, but it's Nier. That's a good week. I bought a bag of that in January, December and January.

34:16I threw it into one of my old Fireblocks wallets. I haven't touched it. I don't plan on touching it. That's like my call option trade. And that's just because we had a couple of calls with like gigabrains in AI, and they were all talking about Nier. I don't get it. I use AI for really stupid things. They all said it's future. I did that, and that's my one ulti trade. But I can't pitch it to you because I actually don't know. It's just one of those things where I'm like, oh, this feels good. I'm going to set it up, forget it. Yeah, I think Nier and Sui are both seen as easier to write and read by AI, for example.

34:52I think the programming language that's used by Sui in particular is meant to be easier. But we're not actually at that use case either yet. So it feels kind of you're buying it beforehand. I think that's an interesting point you just put because Sui, for example, has big unlocks, All these other coins have big unlocks. Maybe we should just go into that a little bit. OTC trading is such a crazy thing as well. The OTC streets at the moment, which I'm in chat, are like, there are huge amounts of supply. People have had a really bad cycle. And a lot of these teams, a lot of these early investors are just trying to get out of tokens.

35:27Maybe we should explain what that is. The OTC market essentially is just anyone who's got anything tied up in one of these investments for VC. They basically go to one of these OTC brokers and they sell them. Quite a lot of them work with Fireblocks, right? Fireblocks, I think, integrates with a bunch of different OTC firms, right? Yeah. It's just like P2P, but behind the scenes, you can't see it on chain because it's locked tokens, so you're just signing contracts over. And yeah, and then folks can go and hedge those because if you assume the position, you might not be held to the same kind of, you know, restrictions.

36:07And that's, yeah, it's a whole different world. I'm not personally involved in it. I don't have the capital to be like doing OTC trades, but, but yeah, it's, it's especially for this types of, you know, points that raised a lot of money at high valuations. They have funds that are probably, you know, trying to raise their second funds. You have to show some sort of like returns or some, some, some sort of liquidity. Yeah. The only OTC stuff that I follow is Punk's OTC. I think that's one of the best market makers I've ever witnessed in my 15 years in markets. But that's proper OTC. This is kind of, this is what something I just think people should be aware of.

36:46Like when you hear about stuff being locked up for a while, it's often not really locked up. Often the trade has already happened months, maybe even years ago, and it's been sold to somebody else in one of these OTC markets. and often at a massive discount, like the discounts for some of these, you kind of saw when the Solana piece traded, right? From the FDX estate, like you're talking about discounts of 40 to 50%. So if you're sitting there on an L1 trade and you're like, oh, the unlocks don't start for another two years, they've already started. Don't worry about it. Always be aware that the unlock schedule is not really what the unlock schedule is.

37:23These teams, these investors are often getting out at large discounts. to you already. And then, like you said, they often get hedged with futures trading or something like that, or something like that. I think it's something that maybe just people aren't aware of, but it's very, very active in crypto. And I know this year, just because given the performance of a lot of different VC funds, a lot of different liquid funds, particularly those in alts, that market is the discounts you're seeing on some of those pieces are absolutely insane. I thought one interesting piece of news this week, and obviously you're in the custody space, is Bitcoin, Brat Bitcoin, which is now moving to Coinbase.

38:08I don't know if you saw this this week. So there was some FUD a few weeks ago that wrapped BTC. The WBTC ticker was moving its custodian out of the US and into Asia. And part of that custodian was going to be linked to Justin Sun and the Tron network. And that caused a lot of FUD. And you saw a number of different DeFi protocols say they were going to try and move away from Wrapped Bitcoin, which had kind of a monopoly on Wrapped Bitcoin on the ETH chain, at least, and even on Solana. And Coinbase came out this week with its CB BTC ticker, where they're going to be wrapping Bitcoin on base, it looks like, to start.

38:48I think it only happened yesterday. It's already up to, I think, nearly about$200 million market cap. This is kind of one of the big last frontiers of crypto. Bitcoin DeFi, like no one's really been able to crack it. It's never really become that big. Maybe part of that was because no one really trusts to wrap Bitcoin. Maybe Coinbase is the future of this. Do you think this was a big deal? It did seem to cause a lot of debate in the crypto space. Yeah, so I think it's unfortunate that WBTC, obviously the team that handled that, kind of pretty much offloaded the product to a consortium that includes Justin Sun.

39:29The reality is it's not a very good revenue generator for them. And so that's why I think they sold it or they looked for a new partner. You look at Tether, it's printing money for the folks that have it, that created it and that maintain it. And it wasn't the case for WBTC. Unfortunately, to your point, it was the largest used wrapper of Bitcoin on EVM DeFi. And yeah, people just don't really trust Justin Sun. And now Coinbase is offering a new version. I think the issue with this version is that obviously Coinbase is subject to U.S. rules and regulations. and it so becomes like USDC where there is a way to freeze your coins.

40:11There's a way to blacklist your wallet. And so we really start getting into the more existential question of Bitcoin DeFi. Do we have really like sovereignty if you're using a product that's wrapped by a US public listed company? And so that's one. The second part is how do you like DeFi for Bitcoin is really just borrowing and lending against it. I don't think there's been anything major besides that. And it's good enough, right? If you have a bag of Bitcoin, you don't want to sell it. You can always just borrow against it, almost acts like a put option. And then you can definitely obviously use that money for whatever you need.

40:53But other than that, I think the asset is so volatile itself that it's really hard to build a healthy suite of products that could more closely look like something that we have in the traditional system. And so, yeah, I don't know. I think just obviously the WBTC thing to Coinbase BTC thing is I do think it's going to be like a third party that does this in a WBTC way or maybe with smart contracts without having to rely on either a Justin Sun. or a Coinbase, which while they're a great company and we love them, they still, you know, you never know what happens. Elizabeth Warren comes in and says, hey, freeze those people's like CB, BTC.

41:32And then you're completely out of luck. Yeah, look, that's what he clapped back with. Justin Sun, which you've basically said as well. Like, I think that was a very fair point. Like, yeah, you know, it's moved out of the US, it's moved to Asia. And Justin Sun's kind of an infamous figure just because of his dealing has always seen him on the edge of legality, let's say. And often his protocols are not properly collateralized in the right way. And there's been a lot of questions about HDX. But I don't know if this means you run into Coinbase Bitcoin. I do think Bitcoin's use case obviously is more of a, like it's a collateral asset, right?

42:13That's all it really is for some of these DeFi protocols. People can borrow and lend against it. and then you can use it maybe for like perp trading or can use it in DeFi pairs. It's just never really been able to be cracked. And the main reason is because people just don't trust the wrap, I think. There has been attempts which are starting to gain traction. I think Babylon is the main like native Bitcoin yield platform. Well, let's say protocol that's starting to launch. I think there was a Pendle. There is a Pendle yield farm this week which launched, which has like 45 % yield on Bitcoin. Because I think there's an ETH L2, which is using that Babylon protocol to make Bitcoin the gas fee or something like that.

43:03there's definitely some more native Bitcoin defi, which is hopefully starting to come through. But although I'm kind of not that bullish on Justin Sun, I think he has a fair point. I don't feel like this solves the issue here for most Bitcoin holders. I don't think, I think that will be a bit more competitive. Like maybe CBBTC goes to like 2 to 3 billion and starts to maybe challenge. I think it's like 9 or 10 billion what BTC is at the moment. So maybe it starts to challenge it a little bit. But I think Bitcoin DeFi, I think, has to happen on Bitcoin. Bitcoin Maxis just don't want to touch it.

43:44It's literally like they've got it locked in a safe in their house. It's like disaster recovery style. They do not want to touch this thing until the last possible minute. So the only chance I think Bitcoin DeFi will work at scale is kind of on Bitcoin itself. Yeah, I totally agree with that. And then maybe we'll leave with like, well, we'll end at least this section, at least with one of the more interesting topics this week, which is that the Trump DeFi project does seem to be launching. It seems to be launching next week. World Liberty Finance. This is from Trump, but I think most notably from the Trump family themselves.

44:27I don't know if Donald Trump himself is kind of just the face of it. I don't think he's been involved in the DeFi coding of this by any means. I think it's Eric Trump and Trump Jr., which have been the main proponents of it. And I think Barron may be involved as well. But that's going to be announced on Monday. Do you have any news about this? Do you have any views? It's going to change the world. It's so hard to talk about the Trumps without it turning political. I always disagree with their morals and a lot of their politics, especially being an immigrant. But it is interesting and got to give them credit for really doubling, tripling down on something that's done so well for them as far as being able to fundraise.

45:18obviously the trump nfts were were a success um then just seeing how you know they can just corner this size or this population of you know one issue voters one issue crypto voters and and this is a really good way of saying you know remember when nfts when celebrities would come in and we're like well are you really here to be part of the ecosystem or you're here to extract if you're here then go buy some nfts or go do a spaces or whatever and like whoever's advising this family is obviously giving them the right advice when it comes to how to look like you're part of the ecosystem. And I give them, you know, they're very, very good political operators and I give them a lot of credit for, for launching something.

45:58Now what's going to happen? I have no clue. I personally will stay as far away as possible from this. But I'll definitely be watching. Obviously a couple of our personal friends are going to be part of the launch announcement. So definitely going to be, going to be watching, but it's just, it's just, you know, Not for me, unless it's like something really innovative, which I don't see how Eric Trump or Donald Trump Jr. have this new like DeFi thing that's going to be innovative that nobody else has been able to launch before. It's probably just going to be something like, again, out of the fork, you deposit some coins and borrow, or like earn that new world financial liberty coin they're going to do.

46:36And yeah, I mean, nothing we didn't see back in like 2021. I mean, I obviously, I'm more pro-Trump just because I wanted to come in and he's been so pro for pro crypto versus the current administration. So like, I think if he gets in, it's a very, very bullish scenario for crypto. At the same time, as someone who thinks he's done well so far, this seems like a massive risk to me. I don't know if like, taking all the politics aside from it, he's already got the crypto, but he doesn't need to do a DeFi project. It doesn't need money, right? Does he need that much? like I mean how much do you think he raises for this you think you can't just go out and just dump the token right maybe a hundred million I mean that is an insane also it wouldn't be for the campaign it would be for for them and the guys had had he's got what like 30 different like lawsuits and stuff he's battling and and again not to get political but he is going through a lot of expenses when he is gunning himself from those from those things and And if they don't win the presidency again, it would be a nice chunk of change to get started on whatever the next stage is.

47:48So, yeah, I mean, it's a celebrity launch. It just so happens to be a former president of the United States and a current candidate for the presidency, which is just really, really interesting. And I would have never had this on my bingo card. But from a crypto native side, it's really cool to see. I don't think many people predicted it. I think there was a polymarket line, which was, will Trump launch a coin before the election? It was like 10 % to 20 % before this week, and it's jumped up to 90%. So crazy times. Anyway, we'll go into the left-curve corner, and then we'll get some questions right at the end.

48:25You haven't been here for left-curve corner, but we go through the major topics in the left-curve part of the space. We will begin with the ape heist. There was a very famous ape heist this week. probably one of the biggest heists in crypto we've ever seen. An ape CryptoPunk sold for 10 ETH. Now that's probably around$1.5 to$2 million less than what it's really worth. It actually happened by a defunct NFT platform called Niftex. The buyer was able to put in a lowball bid into the platform, which was spotted, but unluckily was not stopped. and as a result, it sold for 10 ETH. It's already got a 600 ETH plus bid on it.

49:11One of the most crazy stories I've seen in NFTs for a long time. Secondly, Sundog. We spoke about Justin Starn earlier in this show. His main meme coin, obviously named after him as well, that has reached an all-time high of 345 million yesterday. It's obviously leading Tron meme coins, which has been a bit of a theme, I think, of the last month or two. It's got a Binance listing, it got a Bybit spot listing this week as well. There was a massive buy, which went in yesterday, of$2 million on Binance, which actually whipped it all the way up to over a billion dollars. Fill the wick. It will be interesting to see how that thing goes over the next few weeks.

49:51Thirdly, Xcopy. Xcopy continues to absolutely dominate what is generally still quite a quiet crypto art market. You saw Grifters, which is one of his collections, go up 30%. Max Payne, which is an edition, up 70%. And you saw a one-of-one edition sell for around$650 ,000 and a one-of-ten edition sell for over$500 ,000. So huge, huge sales going through on XCopy. It hasn't yet translated into the rest of the crypto art market, but it's good to see nonetheless. less. Number four, we've had casino tokens being back in vogue. So we started to see DeFi tokens come back in vogue. We've also seen casino tokens.

50:33These were tokens which were kind of a big deal 18 months ago. A lot of talk about the buyback and burn on these sort of tokens. RLB is probably the biggest. It's up around 100 % over the last two weeks alone. It's burnt 50 % of its token already through buyback and burn, and it's burning around 10 % a year at the moment, but a big, big move back into that sector. And then finally, AI coins. So we spoke about all the different sectors which have been hot. Meme coins have been less hot over the last two weeks. AI coins have probably been the hottest sector. You had things like FET, NIR, TAU, all amongst the biggest gains over the last two weeks.

51:08That was on the back of NVIDIA's results, which were a little bit mixed, but then there's been some more positive sentiment over the last week or so, which pushed them back up higher. I don't know if you want to talk about any of those, maybe we'll talk about the ape heist. I don't know about a heist. You know what? It's a shame for the people that own fractions or shares in this thing, right? It is a shame. But it's also one of those things where the buyer didn't steal it in like a actual, he didn't take anything that wasn't allowed. He put in a bid or she put in a bid, right? and the market has some frictions, given that the front end for that protocol is dead.

51:51And nobody could stop it. I think G Money, who was one of the largest holders of the Shards, tried to stop it. He missed like two zeros on the way they had to put in, so he missed it by like a fraction of a penny. But at the end of the day, it's fair game, well played. You read the rules, you submit. It's not the first bit that goes into this ape over the last year, year and a half, that it's been sitting there in that vault. And they finally were able to fish it out. So yeah, heist, I think, in the more kind of like colloquial side, like free, stolen, yes. But I think, and this is actually, you know, in the Punk's Telegram, it was a lot of discussion over the last couple of days.

52:28Yeah, Punk's OTC, who you shouted out earlier, he really thinks it's a heist. Yeah, I mean, obviously, when somebody picks up$2 million off the street for$10, or it was$25 ,000, everybody else in the market wishes it was them. and it does suck for the holders and things should be better but it's not like it was a rug it's not like an oracle got manipulated to kind of like take money out of a protocol or anything like that the rules were very clear everybody that bought shards knew the rules this is a story that within the punk market has been really just everybody knows about that ape it had been sitting there for three years and so yeah I mean nothing they can do now I'm just surprised I would have taken the 600 Ether and rode off into...

53:19You can't really ride off into the trumpet, but you can definitely go have yourself a nice month out in like, I don't know, it's the fall of Aspen or something like that. I would have definitely taken that bid, 100%. But yeah, maybe we're going to a little bit more of the smaller details around this, which made it even more crazy. The front end of the site is down. So no one was really able to see that this bid had gone through unless you were looking at the smart contract itself. there was no notification to anyone who owned the shares like this nft had been fractionalized and one of the people who had owned one of those fractions put in a bid basically to take over the whole thing and it was identified that this has happened just a few hours before that bid was meant to end you had two weeks to identify it and then in the final hours g money who's a very well known collector in the space identified that that bid had been put in and moved to put in a competing bid but he moved to put in the competing bid at the minimum possible increase possible and actually his calculation seems to have been off by about one, was it like one trillionth of an ETH?

54:18He missed the bid buy. Something absolutely insane. So like that also makes me feel like it's not a high because people were aware of it. They just miscalculated the competing. It's not the first time somebody low balls this ape. It's been many, many times. They finally got away with it. And so, yeah, it's, you know, it's like they found free money in the street, but fair and square in that sense. They played by the rules. Yeah. More rules than everything else. Yeah, but they played by the rules. Yeah, G-Money also actually said, you know, this is fair game. You know, fair game. Although Punk's OTC, I think, earns different shares was like, no.

54:56I kind of sit in the middle. If you don't have a front end and you're not telling anyone that the bids have gone through, is there a responsibility for you to continue that at all times? it's difficult to say. It's difficult to say. What I would say is if I owned that many chairs, I'd be checking this thing every single week. You would have written a script or a bot to make sure that every single time somebody interacts with that smart contract, I get paid. I agree with you. A lot of complacency there from the holders and just also like you bought into a multi-million dollar asset in a fractional way through like a startup back in 21.

55:29Like this was bound to happen. Like you should have done the risks. But yeah, good for the buyer. I hope they do something cool with the Ape. Or if not, I've put in a 12 Ether bid on the Ape. And if they want to take it and make two Ethers, a quick 20 % return in a week, please do. I'll be happy to hold that Ape for you guys. All right. We'll get into the questions now. Just before that, we're going to flag some of the pro crypto content on Real Vision. Earlier this week, we had Ash Beddington again, did a deep dive into the developments on Solana. He's spoken to Matty Taylor from Coliseum, Tristan Freezer from Zeta Markets.

56:02That conversation is available for pro crypto subscribers. As we said at the start of the show, you can use Bday10 to get discounts on Real Vision membership at the moment. All right, going into the questions from the live audience. We've had any thoughts on Grayscale starting a Ripple fund, XRP? Any thoughts on this launch this week? I mean, it's just part of their product suite, right? They're continuing to roll out funds based on the largest market cap coins. And so it totally makes sense that they do this. I think it's great. I think Grayscale has a great, great team. They've done a lot of really good stuff for the ecosystem.

56:40So congrats to them and just really wishing them a lot of success because it'll be good for all of us. But I wouldn't read too much into it. It's just saying, you know, Port Motors making a pickup truck. Okay. Like that's what they do. There's been a lot of questions about XRP. because obviously it still hasn't, I think there's still an appeal pending potentially on the ruling versus the SEC about whether it's security or not. But a lot of people have said, you know, XRP has probably got a good, good case to be made for the next potential ETF. I mean, the ETF has not already been performing that well.

57:14So I don't know if people will be rushing in to do an XRP ETF, but there's some questions about it. And Grayscale did an XRP trust. Interestingly, their next one seemingly is going to be SUI too. I think they're taking institutional inflows for a SUI trust as well. So it feels like Grayscale are probably going to do this for a range of different assets. They've already done Solana. Now they've done XRP. They're going to do SUI. But yeah, it's good to see this. It's good to see the rails being built, I agree, for various different altcoins. Secondly, we have any thoughts on trading out of some of my soul for SUI?

57:51I guess we kind of did touch upon that. Like, what do you think, Sergio? I would consider your personal tax situation, right? If you're sitting on a massive gain and it's a short-term capital gains here in the States, I just wouldn't incur that to go into something that might slightly outperform. But if taxes are not a concern in that sense, I don't know. I think putting a small percentage into treating it as a call option could make sense. or just taking a larger percentage of your Solana off the table if you had a good run on that trade and turning a small percentage of that into kind of like the next leg all-to-one trade to continue to have exposure.

58:35I think all these things are going to move together. I mean, they move together over the medium to long term. So yeah, depending on what you're trying to do, right? If you're trying to just make quick money in a week or two, it seems like they've ran already. So maybe you missed that one for now. Now, if it's just more portfolio rebalancing, thinking long-term, then yeah, if you want to have exposure to something, definitely have exposure to something. But if you're selling another asset, especially one that's up so much, make sure you think of your tax considerations because a lot of people got wrecked back in April of 22, filing taxes for stuff that we did in 21 without really thinking about it too much.

59:11I think that's a very good point. Be aware of your taxes. I think a lot of people will be sitting on unrealized gains in Solana. I do think that what I said was, I kind of would just echo that again. I think that SUI could outperform Solana, but I also don't think that that's because there's high amounts of adoption. So if Bitcoin doesn't go up to 100K, you know, it breaks down or we don't have this crazy next 6 to 12 months. I think that SUI, yeah, it's still a little bit of a difficult trade. You might be waiting there in 6 to 12 months and there also isn't adoption there. where Solana is seeing adoption.

59:48As we said at the start of the show, the trade is there. It still has the highest number of active addresses ever for any blockchain this week. There's clearly users of Solana, but we just think because of meme coins being less active, DeFi volumes going down a little bit, and the unlocks, that trade becomes a little bit more... I don't know. It's easier to FUD, I would say. I don't know if I love Sui more than I'm just a bit more wary on Solana. But I do think that if I was to pick a barbell right now, it'd be Bitcoin and probably a small amount of SUI or leather Bitcoin, like I said earlier in the show.

1:00:24All right, let me go to the next one.

1:00:29What if any indicators will you be watching to gauge a meme coin cycle top, e.g. Doge hitting 100 billion?

1:00:44Yeah, I mean, doge hitting 100 billion would be a 6x from here. That would probably set off a few top signals in my brain. I personally think that we've kind of touched upon it a little bit. The meme coins are going through a bit of a PVP moment here. I do think that one of the best use cases of crypto, having been here for three or four years, is financialization of internet culture. Whether that's NFTs or meme coins, In fact, people do like to trade memes. They like to trade communities based on those memes. And I think crypto is the perfect place to trade internet culture. But right now, for the last three, four months, there hasn't really been that much new money coming in.

1:01:27So I don't know if... Like long, long term, I do think that if crypto market cap continues to go higher, meme coin market cap will continue to go higher as well. But I think we've probably seen a little bit of a mini top in the meme coin market cap. them on the store ready i'll tell you my indicators when you start seeing people doing really stupid stuff on twitter because they made money and i'm in point a lot of people not just one or two early guys but like a lot of people start doing and you'll see it you'll just see it when you're like okay that's top indicator um or just wild stories i remember back in in 21 um a goldman md retired literally came in the next day and retired because he had made a ton of money on dodge and that was near the Dutch top.

1:02:10Like that's the kind of stuff you don't hear about every year, let alone, you know, people like that. And so for me, it's those kinds of stories, given that mean coins are so about narrative, I think your indicators don't come from charts or anything else. They actually come from the narratives themselves. Okay. And then final one we're going to do is, could stable coins be used as an exit from the dollar, allowing the government to print even more, even faster. I don't know if I follow what that means, but I do think there was a report out this week, actually, I think by PayPal or one of the, maybe it was by Visa, but one of the major payment providers talking about how the dollar strength or that stable coins were going to be the next big thing for the dollar.

1:03:02But suddenly so many different economies around the world could move into the dollar very, very quickly and dollar power would go up as a result of this. I think that's kind of obvious. It's been really surprising to me that the US has kind of not been so pro-crypto because to me, I feel like it's just a massive rails for the dollar to go global. Coming from Latin America and knowing how much of a good thing and then a bad thing dollarization was for local economies. Yeah, it's an incredible tool that the US could flex if they wanted to. To your point, they're not really thinking too much about it.

1:03:41But yeah, I mean, it's, I think the question was more like, could the government print stable coins instead of printing money? And that might just miss how stable coins work, which usually, you know, they're backed by treasury bills somewhere. So, you know, not really a possibility unless the government was like, yeah, we're going to start. I mean, the government prints money just by literally hitting a button on a keyboard, right? they don't really have to like print any paper. But when it comes to stable coins, yeah, you're just exporting policy as people around the world use the dollar instead.

1:04:13And I think it's going to be very, very interesting to see what happens in five, 10 years. So I do think the stable coin supply chart is going to be up only forever. It's just as more people come on chain, it's just, you expect them to obviously get. So I think it's a good story. At some point it's going to not, no longer be part of like a bullish narrative because it's just natural growth of the asset. But something to definitely keep an eye on for, especially when it comes to policy. All right. I agree with all of that. I think, I do think that you can't really print stable coins out of thin air.

1:04:49Like the dollars actually have to be held at a bank somewhere. And they're most, almost always, they're used to buy like treasuries, particularly like USDC, has to be one-to-one backed. So I think it's just dollar power, but I'm not sure if you can print out of... Print. You can have like a TUSD. Oh, yeah. There's been some dodgy... You could just launch tokens and say this is a point and they're worth a follow-up. That's what Justin Sun would do. Yeah. That's what Justin Sun would do. All right. Well, that was Rec Vision. Thank you so much again for coming this week, Sergio. Yeah, it looks like we are still flirting.

1:05:29with going above 60k, which would be, to be a welcome change to what's normally a horrific episode of, of erect vision every single week. I think you can find Sergio as always on X, Sargito Silva, or no, Sargito Sargito. Yeah. You can find him on X. He's a very, very famous punk PFP. Remember again, Real Vision's birthday this month. You can go onto the website and use Bday10 to get a discounted membership. You can find me on X at Rectmando or mandominutes.com for my newsletter. We will see you again next Friday at 11.30 a.m. Eastern, 4.30 p.m. British summertime. Thanks, everyone, for tuning in.

1:06:11And thanks again, Sergio. Thank you for having me. Good weekend, everybody.

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