Drinks with Raoul Pal -- Ask Me Anything

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1:07Rick Rule. Rick Rule is a favorite of the Real Vision community. If you'd like to meet Rick and get a masterclass from the master himself, you'll want to head to the Rick Rule Symposium on Natural Resource Investing in Florida July 23 to 27. You'll get access to industry insiders, elite bullion dealers, gold council members and uranium pros. Just head over to realvision.com slash rick for tickets that's realvision.com slash rick

1:40so welcome everybody um i think you're familiar with this format this is the i don't know what the fuck i'm doing this is the summer edition today i have a nice glass of pink cava from spain which is one of my favorite drinks i'm a big champagne cava fan i don't like prosecco it's filthy shit. So cheers to you. And because I'm European and civilized, unlike most of you, you can't drink without a snack. And today I have some home toasted almonds. These are almonds from Valencia coated with Himalayan sea salt and a little drizzle of Italian olive oil from a friend mine's olive oil farm in not Tuscany, somewhere nearby.

2:23So anyway, lots to get through. It's going to be the usual clusterfuck of me not knowing anything that I'm doing because I'm on my own here. Apparently, Brian, the producer, is going to try and produce charts, but I'm in charge of everything here. And generally, I'm chaotic and I don't know what I'm doing. And I do have elements of ADD or more than elements of ADD. So we'll try the best I can. I will swear. So just to warn you because I have a tendency to swear I don't have children, so I can do what the fuck I want. Anyway, so let's get on with the clusterfuck. I'm going to firstly give you the macro framework, then the crypto framework, because I know a lot of you are interested in that.

3:00And then we'll talk about some NFTs and other stuff. And then we'll dig into stuff, tons of questions. So how this is going to work is we're going to do this free. So this is Twitter, LinkedIn, and YouTube for the first half hour. Then if you want to come across and watch the rest of it, because it's an hour long, it's a special. This is a takeover. I've taken over the Real Vision daily briefing because I can, because I'm the CEO. So that will then go onto the Real Vision platform. The questions I'll answer will be on the Real Vision platform, not elsewhere. If you're not a member, it's ridiculous.

3:34We'll come onto that in a bit, but it's a dollar. Just go and sign up, get the trial, and you can ask all the questions you want and then gorge on all the content behind the paywall. It's an extraordinary amount of stuff there on Real Vision. And there's some special stuff I'm going to talk about later. Macro. OK, where are we? This is the most hated rally I've ever seen. And I've seen some hated rallies. 2009 was another classic. It is my view that last year, when the NASDAQ, S &P, the bond market, commodities, everything collapsed. That was the pricing in of the recession by those. And I do enormous amounts of work.

4:13We probably have one and a half thousand charts plus a macro model, plus a bunch of stuff with Global Macro Investor where we look into this. We saw from our forward-looking indicators what was going to happen. And we also then have been expecting the lagged effects of the economy to come through. We also noted that markets were somewhat forward-looking and that they would start rallying once liquidity started coming in, which is part of the everything code. We'll go a little bit through the everything code. And so that has exactly been playing out. We were buyers of Ethereum back in June, thinking that the global liquidity cycle at the bottom, and ETH was the leader of the entire cycle.

4:58That bottomed in June, did not bottom again in October, while everything else bottomed in October. I remember putting out some tweets for people talking about it's usually the bear killer month. You usually get a bear market and it usually dies in October. And that's what happened as liquidity came into the market. So that got me very constructive and bullish first on crypto because that's my chosen asset allocation. We'll come onto that later because I think it's the fastest horse in the race. The race is all about debasement, which is the everything code. It's not about liquidity that a lot of people talk about on Twitter.

5:28I'm less interested in that. I'm interested in the debasement of global currency by the world's central banks. Liquidity is a factor, obviously, within all of this, and that comes up and down with the business cycle. And we'll come on to the debasement cycle later. So by January, February, I've been buying everything from NASDAQ to Microsoft to Tesla to Coinbase to KR1 in the UK to a whole bunch of these semiconductors over time, just buying all of these things on my thesis that the exponential age in technology. So I bought crypto first, then technology. Crypto is by far the biggest bet. Technology was going to be the second fastest horse.

6:11Now, what's proven out so far this year, I can blow my own trumpet for a little bit for once because I get so much abuse anyway. So if I look at Solana, which is one of my bets, it's up 170 % this year. Bitcoin's up 81%. ETH's up 60%. Meanwhile, over in the exponential age and equity land. That's up 73 % this year. And NASDAQ's up 45. And we said that the other horses to back weren't worth backing. S &P's up 18%. So the NASDAQ's done two and a half X, what the S &P's done. So the thesis seems to be playing out. And I think that continues into 2026. So I still see a lot of people expecting the second bare leg lower.

6:55I don't think that's coming, of course, we will get corrections. We'll probably get a scare along the way too, where everybody thinks the world's going to end. But I don't see anything but an ongoing forward looking liquidity cycle and business cycle. The business cycle to me is bottoming in the next month or two. And that will start moving higher. But that phase of the business cycle is the sweet, sweet magic. When the economy starts recovering, asset prices start booming, and inflation, which is lagging, continues lower. The Fed, I think, are purposely raising rates late into the cycle because they want inflation as low as possible so they can cut rates as low as possible when it comes to the debt refi cycle.

7:36You've all heard me talk about this around. And if you don't, go and look at the stuff of the Everything Code on YouTube or on the platform where it's in much more detail. But the debt refi cycle comes towards the back end of this year, 2024, 2025. So I think we'll see monetary printing, a cutting of rates coming over that period of time. Monetary printing will be brought forward if the banking crisis comes back again. My view is there's a potential that later this month, we start to see some cracks appearing there again, and that narrative comes back. Maybe it doesn't. We'll wait and see. It's not my core thesis, but it's something that I'm observing.

8:15That would bring back the money printer goes burr or more cowbell, as I say, a bit faster. So we expect that to happen. The liquidity cycle, our Global Macro Investor Weekly Liquidity Cycle Index, again, I've written about on Twitter. I've written in the free GMI newsletter. If you haven't signed up to that, find it on Twitter under my tweets. It comes out every Sunday. Really important research. Or obviously, anybody on the platform, you get it in Real Vision Pro Macro in much more depth and much more deeper conversations myself or in GMI if you're feeling fancy and flush with cash because it's very expensive.

8:50So the forward-looking indicators suggesting all of this goes up from here onwards. My view is that we will see, as I said, rate cuts to come. The Fed are purposely late because they need to get all inflation expectations crushed. The one-year break-evens are already, so that's The expectation of inflation one year in advance, already about 1.3%. So it's come right down. The true inflation gauge of current inflation is about 2.1 % this morning. I think we break through 2 % in the coming month and on our way to zero. So I think forward-looking inflation is zero. PPI is zero. PPI across Europe is negative.

9:33PPI in China is negative. PPI leads CPI. CPI is going to head lower. And of all of you going, yeah, but what about wages? And what about rents and core sticky? It's always lagged. It is every single time lag. It's purposely lagged, just the definition of how these things work. So we are seeing already forward-looking indicators of rents coming down. The core CPI is mainly driven by that. That's what the services inflation is. Wages are already deflating, starting to come lower. And we will see ongoing deflation from that. Core CPI, wherever it settles down at, will be lagged. amenable to rates being back what they need to be, which is at or below trend rate of GDP growth.

10:16Again, part of the Everything Code, which I think trend rate of GDP growth in the United States is 1.75%. So it's kind of all to play for here. Early cycle, this is the spring, the macro spring. We call it the GMI spring, that quadrant where growth stocks take off, all the growthy stuff happens. Inflation is falling, unemployment is falling, and growth is basing and starting to pick up. We will see that the forward-looking indicators, even the simple stuff like the ISM new orders index, those kind of things, inventories and new orders are starting to pick up. It's all over the place. And look, the Fed know it.

10:55They're not stupid. They know that the cycle turned a long time ago. They know the forward-looking indicators, where they are. They know inflation lags. But as I said, really for them, it's to undershoot inflation. That's my Now my core view is they want to undershoot because it gives them an excuse to fire the bullets they want to fire. Unemployment will rise. It won't rise as much as other cycles because structurally there are just less people in the labor force. And so there's so many retirees. When you look at aggregate total economy, it's a very different picture. So I think unemployment rises percent, percent and a half and inflation continues lower.

11:34So that's a very supportive backdrop, more cowbell, more printing to cover the interest payments on the debts that they're rolling forward, according to the everything code cycle. So I remain incredibly constructive, really constructive tech. We've also got the narrative of exponential age, which is an astonishingly powerful narrative around all of these, the adoption of all of these technologies all at the same time. Everything from AI to cryptocurrency to robotics to self-driving cars, which is AI and robotics added together. Internet of Things, which is basically robotics and AI again. You can see how these all interlink, right?

12:14Genetic sciences, which is AI and big data. big data itself, green energy, all of this stuff is all going exponential at the same time and is not going to stop for the rest of our lifetime. So get used to a pace of change of which we can't understand. But also, it also means that it will drive asset prices significantly. We will have booms and busts. By the rate of change of the NASDAQ, I mean, I think the NASDAQ goes a lot higher. The Everything Co gives forecasts out to 26, which I will not give out publicly. It goes a lot higher. Will we end up in a bubble? Potentially. Depends how big the narrative builds, how big the mean builds around AI and exponentialized technologies.

12:55So lots to play for, early days. That wraps into crypto. Crypto is my chosen horse. It outperforms everything in this type of cycle. Like technology, it's driven by debasement of the central banks, of the fiat currency market, particularly the world's reserve currency of the dollar, but all of them together really. and in addition it's driven by the secular trend the adoption trend of crypto is huge it's now 425 million wallets it keeps going up every single year even last year in a bear market it grew 40 percent um so and in the next coming years we will probably get that number up to a billion pretty fast so we've got a huge change to come um the ongoing adoption we've got central bank digital currencies to come um we have which is whether you like it or not still an adoption of blockchain technologies.

13:43We also have payments rails and all of that kind of thing going on. Plus, people are looking at tokenizing asset prices like bonds and stuff like that. So the financial world is moving on to blockchain, which is a core thesis of mine. In addition to that, we have now the on-ramps for the average punter, which is the ETF. That, I think, where the ARP gets the first one across on August 13th, 18th, whatever it is, that will open the floodgates. I think prices will be rising into that anyway. My forecast forwards are much higher prices. Anyway, again, I'm not going to give a forecast because all of you dicks on Twitter try and then fight me over and say, see, see, three years later, you got that wrong by whatever.

14:21It's such a waste of time. And I'm sorry that I can't help you more because you don't deserve it. Well, many of you do, but just some of you, those trolls on Twitter, you don't. And I'm a bit burned by that. So I do expect higher prices. And I think that the Bitcoin ETF starts driving that narrative. And we're seeing the regulatory landscape change. The UK is stepping forward as well. So the globalized regulation. So I'm incredibly, immensely bullish. The business cycle leans into this. The Bitcoin halving cycle to me is actually just the business cycle and the debt refi cycle. Doesn't matter.

14:59You can still have, I don't say it's not valid. It's just happened to be the same timing. So whether they both exist independently of each other or they're both the same thing, it's irrelevant for the story. But I think it's actually the big macro cycle, the debt refi cycle coming from that. So shit tons of play for there. I'm very excited about the space. Don't shill me all your small tokens. I have no idea. I don't an asset management business, exponential age asset management that invested digital asset hedge funds. It's a fund of funds. Their job as hedge funds is to figure that stuff out.

15:32I'm not smart enough to figure out what small tokens. So you can chill me all day. It doesn't make any difference. I've been pretty public in the three tokens that I like, and I remain just chilling. I don't store anything on exchange. I don't do yield, even though I think yield is a great opportunity for those who want to take that risk. It's not for me. And so we just continue to wait for this to evolve and average in when I can, when I've got some cash. NFT space has been really interesting as well. It's been in a ridiculous bear market and has been taking the pain. NFTs are just a lag domino of the business cycle of the eth economy.

16:08They're the asset side. Remember, rents were the last shoe to fall in the business cycle of the regular economy. Well, NFTs are the assets. When nobody's got any gains to recycle and prices haven't been rising, then what we tend to do is we will see people liquidate for cash and then there's no buyers around. As soon as people start making money again, they're like, look at me and my punk, which is probably behind me somewhere. And they want to start showing off. They want to start getting invested in stuff. They want to start taking more speculative bets. So that cycle returns. We've seen a bifurcation, remember, ETH bottomed first before Bitcoin, ETH bottomed first.

16:53And what we've seen is the high-end market in crypto bottoming first. And then we will start to see, I think probably PUNK's bottomed, stuff like that, and we'll bottom and a bunch of these things will go to zero and some will come through. I'll talk maybe on the other side of the show about what kind of NFT projects I think are going to last through to the other side, not the specific ones, but what type of projects interest me? Okay, that was a huge data dump on you. I'm sorry. I will answer questions on the Real Vision platform. Just some more stuff to go through. Talking of Real Vision, first, I'm just going to reward myself for getting through 20 minutes of a monologue soliloquy at record speed, giving you the entire macro view.

17:34So cheers.

17:38And a couple of armaments to wash it down. Okay, so... there's a shit ton going on at real vision right now um talking about nfts we we um have a free mint we thought let's have some fun with the community we're changing real vision into a new platform i'll show you that in a sec so we thought you know what let's mint some of the classic old branding of nfts and make a limited edition mint not to make any money from it just to have some fun first one was milton our ventriloquist dummy who was the fifth founder of of real vision and there's a whole story about that and you'll you'll find on the real vision platform.

18:16So Milton behind an open V for real vision was the first ever logo we ever had for the company. We minted that app that we said, Hey, listen, guys, we've got free mint. It sold out in 35 minutes because people didn't know what we're up to. Then today we had a classic one of a London punk doing this with the shape of the V with we know fuck about fuck, which is one of the ethos of real vision is nobody. You can't be a no at all. You don't know what you're doing. the world changes um and that open mindset uh the thousand of those sold out in i think it was 13 minutes today there's more coming each week so if you're an nft person keep your eye on the real vision collective twitter feed my twitter feed or the real vision bots twitter feed uh and you'll see what's coming from that but real vision itself is going on undergoing why we're we're kind of auctioning off the old um vintage real vision branding and logos and stuff like that is because Because Real Vision is evolving into a platform.

19:13So we pioneered the long form financial industry, financial content industry. Didn't exist before Real Vision. Literally didn't exist. I know now there's millions of podcasts, blah, blah, blah. Did not exist. So we're the first people ever to do it. We pioneered all of that. We pioneered the best guests in the world. Most of the guests you ever see on any podcast were brought out by us. We've luckily in that journey changed millions of people's lives, literally millions. I found out that our YouTube content's been viewed 110 million times so far. It's extraordinary. People write to us every day saying, thank you for changing our lives.

19:46We didn't change our lives. We just helped you and you changed your own lives. So you're the ones you should thank. But we started thinking, where do we want to go with this? We want to create a single place for people to live their financial lives and save them time. There's information everywhere. We're on 10 different websites trying to get everything together. So we're launching, we're still designing the new platform. It'll come later this summer. We're working flat out to get these designs onto the actual new platform itself. We spent a whole year building out incredible tech stack with a team of engineers under our CTO CanalShark, amazing stuff.

20:27And Andy Batt, who's led the products and design team, done an amazing job. So quick peek of the platform because most of you haven't seen it yet. So, Brian, if you could stick that up. So the platform here, this is the first part of the platform, and I can't go through it. We don't have enough time. We've got a big town hall on Real Vision. But basically, this is what's called the control center. This gives you your instant snapshot of everything you need to watch, what videos you've missed, what the most important ones are curated by our audience, a little box in the right that tells you every single bit of information you need to know, quick chart, and then this amazing community tools to help you navigate the community, which hopefully Brian can show you a little bit of, and then keep track of your charting stuff.

21:08Brian, there's a chart around of the community with a map of the world. Sorry. Brian's a bit slow. I can't help you. Where's his baseball cat backwards? That kind of thing. So, you know, there he is. So, well, that's part of it, but you You can see we've got this globe that spins and you can find any Real Vision member anywhere in the world. There's a short bio should you choose to give it. If you want to dox yourself, then the community can network with each other, create group chats and all sorts of amazing stuff. We've got AI built in that's going to basically summarize any content for you, allow you to take notes, create a note for you quickly, store it in your note center.

21:49We've got transcripts for everything, audio files for everything. We've got embedded charting, economic data, all of that stuff. We're bringing in portfolio management and risk management tools for the more premium tiers. Embedded with Web3 technologies as well. That's the other thing we're working on to make sure we've got token-gated content and community stuff. And embed our on-chain trading leagues and all sorts of stuff. I mean, it's an extraordinary platform. Nothing exists like it. Even, Brian, can you go to the player page, just the regular Real Vision experience? So that's called the Knowledge Center.

22:32So the Knowledge Center here is now very different to how you know it from Real Vision. Not only do you watch the video, you can move that window around. It gives you the chat, which now finally actually notifies you when somebody responds. But more importantly, it gives you a real-time transcript that scrolls as you go, or you can stop it. There, you can interact with the transcript, with the AI and the AI will summarize it for you, give you bullet points, give me the five bullet points. It'll do all sorts of stuff for you to help you in your journey and also recommend more content and a whole bunch of other stuff.

23:04So we've got two different levels of AI and we're working on a large language model to scrape all the transcripts from Real Vision, 7 ,000 hours of history, and then just deliver the knowledge back to the community. We want the Real Vision network to be the most powerful, knowledgeable community. We want to augment everybody. So that's the journey we're on. I'm going to start trying to answer questions, but I know we're going to have to flip over platforms shortly. So listen, if you are watching this and you have to sign up to Reels, just fucking do it. It's a dollar. Surely you can afford a dollar if you think this is interesting.

23:37Or, you know, maybe not. I don't know. I don't really understand then why you tune into Real Vision on YouTube all the time when you're missing all the great stuff that's not here, particularly this platform, because this ain't going to be on YouTube, guys. This is on the other world. Also, if you sign up now for Real Vision, prices are actually going up. And so if you get into a trial, you'll get in at the low rate, which you can lock in. Because if that platform appeals to you, you should lock in your bloody rate as fast as possible. So just go through realvision.com, take the$1 trial and sign up, honestly.

24:12And if you're just a freebie YouTube user or whatever, or even a Twitter, just give it a follow or a like. just be nice to us i'm i'm trying hard here to keep you entertained that's delicious i just tell you you've got to get into kava i know everybody's kind of a rosé person right now but kava just the crispness of it is epic and the other thing about kava and all method champignois is they can only have 12 alcohol well between 11 and 12 alcohol so you know what you're getting every time they can't fake it by sweetening it to adding different things, glycerine, whatever it is, the shit they put in wine to make it taste big and bold, it's always clean.

24:55It's always made the same way. You can't fuck it up. And so it really is my go-to enjoyment drink because it is thoroughly enjoying. Right. I'm going to ask one question because we're going to have to switch platforms. Everything's gone so fast. I told you it's chaos. It's a total clusterfuck.