Drinks with Raoul Pal - Ask Me Anything

24:46Paul Cohen, good morning from Geelong, Australia. Builders Tea time of day. I was about to say, bloody hell, if you're drinking at that time, you're a true Aussie.

25:00OK. There's a lot of different what people are drinking. Obviously, post what you're drinking. Edmund Johnson popped lotus seeds with Himalayan pink salt sold as karma bites in the UK. Interesting. But it doesn't count unless you make them yourself. I mean, look, the whole chefing, it's the culture thing. You need to open your bottle of wine, make your snack, smell it in the kitchen. That's real culture. Buying it from bloody Marks and Spencers from a bag just doesn't count. I'm sorry. Dimitri Hoffman, do you think that we'll have a secondary scare as recession will come in 2024? Could it be an additional opportunity for buying tech and stocks?

25:41We will have a secondary scare, but not a big one. When we look back at these election years, you might get a 10 % sell-off, maybe two of them over the year, but that's about it. Max 15 % in the general context of what should be a very strong year, they are your friend. You should say thank you when there's corrections of that sort, if you've got cash to buy more. David Black, Fréjéné, the black bottle, just slides down the gullet as well. Yeah, that's the kind of cheap party carver. Come on, get with the program. This is the stuff. RAOUL PAL, Cramona. It's very, very nice. Not wildly expensive either.

26:19Spanish car is super cheap. Adam Blummer, any thoughts on the carbon allowance trade? Yes, it actually lags the ISM. It's going to mess around for a while longer before it starts picking up in line with the economy. It's actually, I didn't realize until later, and I've got the trade on, and it's done nothing. It goes to the top of the range back down again. But really, it performs when the ISM starts picking up back through 50. So it'll come. It'll come. Be patient. That trade will happen. The Pagan drinks Belgian beer and some Gorgonzola, Anders Bergland. Belgian beer, I mean, I'm not a beer drinker.

27:03But it's a fine beer, I get it. And some Gorgonzola, very nice too. Paul Cohen, does the journeyman appear on this platform? Seems to think I've watched them here. Yes, of course, you get everything I do, obviously. Angela Winston, can you show us your latest GMI global liquidity chart? What are you asking for? Do you want to show your wallet? No, you get it on the Pro Macro tier. Thank you very much. No, honestly, I do put a lot of free stuff out as much as possible. But right now, when people are paying a lot for advice, I need to be careful. But as I said, year on year, it's going up. So that's all you need to know.

27:47John Ayres, best way to buy Bitcoin at scale to place in a cold wallet? Best way to buy Bitcoin is send your filthy fiat to an exchange and purchase said Bitcoin, transfer it into your ledger. This usually works for me.

28:05David Black. Like, Raoul, I just want to say your model of how banking, debt, financial markets is the fucking best thing out there and gave me the confidence to go big into crypto. You'll thank me now, but you won't thank me when I'm forced you to buy ETH calls at the top of the market back in 2021. But at least it was only calls and only cost us 5%. But yes, thank you. I appreciate it. I've tried really, really hard to make sure that everybody's set up for this cycle. I've tried to communicate it. I've gone out a lot to say, don't fuck this up. Buy and hold, don't use leverage, use cold storage, do the right thing, don't get too speculative, don't FOMO, just don't fuck this up.

28:45This is the biggest opportunity we've ever been given. I've said that all the way from 2020 onwards. And in fact, I said it all the way back in 2012. It's the biggest macro trade of all time. Don't fuck this up. And if you're not a crypto person, technology is one of the biggest opportunities we've ever been given. in the exponential age. Again, don't fuck this up. Just be careful. Just buy, hold, have a long-term time horizon, and learn how to take pain. When there is pain, you buy more. Unless something changes the thesis that suddenly, we're all going to turn to Neanderthals, and nobody's going to use technology ever again, it is going up.

29:24It's as simple as that. Unless something changes that we're not breaking the financial system, and that the internet has disappeared, we will go to blockchain technology. It's as simple as that. That's all you need to know. Everything else is just fucking noise.

29:42Jorge Lazarte, hi, Raoul. I'm wondering on your short-term horizon, I think I've explained to you that that is the thing I do not do is short-term. A, I'm shit at it. B, it's so suboptimal in terms of returns when you're in gigantic, phenomenal, ridiculous, secular bull markets with logarithmic trends like crypto and technology. Everything else is an utter waste of time. But is it possible the Fed raises rates in December? No, zero, literally zero. Inflation is falling like a fucking stone out there. so I'm starting to swear a lot as I've got through my first glass of cover which reminds me, time to refill so I suggest you all refill your drinks this is Friday after all and this is RAL PAL I don't know what the fuck I'm doing drink special and I always enjoy doing these, they're a good laugh although my wife doesn't like the fact that I'm usually shitfaced by suddenly 5 o 'clock on a Friday evening she's like what the hell have you been doing in your office

30:48Maggie Lake in the chat chat. Maggie is the queen, and the queen has joined the chat. I'm impressed by the drink selection in this group, but then again, I shouldn't be really surprised. Yeah, we've got some cultured people. We've been weeding out the riffraff, those people who drink cocktails over dinner, those people who don't have snacks with their drinks before dinner, the aperitivo. We weed out all of those people. They're not welcome here. We're trying to get people en masse to become civilized in our little society of real vision. We want to be a cultured civilization here, and then we can be really uncultured in how we speak to each other and all the other ways that we can be uncultured.

31:26But we want to do it in this nice setting. That's what I've always thought. You want a beautiful setting, do that, and then you swear like a trooper.

31:36Paul English, howdy, Raoul. Sounds American, right? All right. Brian, T-Rex, Quentin, Ralph, Oliver, Beau, Roger, Christopher, and the whole chat team. I have no idea what you're talking about, but welcome all of you, whoever you are.

31:58Mark Kishlats, it's incredible how volatile Tesla is and the ignorance surrounding it. It's like watching crypto markets. Yes, because it's a long duration asset with a future state technology. We're not talking about Ford here, how many cars are going to ship this year. You're talking about the technology that they're building. I honestly think this is the most important company in the world by a long way. And I know people, it's nothing to do with Elon. Don't give a shit whether you like him or not like him. We're in the business of making money. This company is an extraordinarily powerful company with the technology that they're building, the position that they have in the market, the cash buffer that they've built.

32:34Don't forget, this is a company that everyone thought was going to go bust a few years ago. Now they're sitting on$29 billion of cash and completely dominate the car market. It's utterly extraordinary what he's done. Maggie Lake. Maggie likes her drinks. That's why we love Maggie. Anyone with a gin martini? I like a gin martini, actually, as well. It's kind of a little more sophisticated than the vodka martini. I like vodka martinis. But gin martini, it's a little bit English, a little bit classier. Yeah. Quentin Baumgardner, insider reporting that Sam Altman ousted his OpenAI CEO. I saw this, and the wording was strange, like something he's not been telling the board.

33:15I don't know what the hell's going on. Maybe they built internal AGI, and he's not told the board or something. I don't know. But there's a hell of a story brewing there. I mean, he's gone from the golden boy, the fastest scaling business in all human history to out by not telling the board something. I mean, Christ, it must be a big deal to get rid of the fastest growing CEO in history. RAOUL PAL, Brian Taggart, Raoul, I have ProAccess because I want to have access to you since you're the best. But I don't care for crypto, I don't want to pay for it. Can you split ProAccess into different parts.

33:58What's pro macro? But I write crypto. My job is not to please you. My job is to make us money. And if I think crypto is a better opportunity than trading bloody commodities, I will see it as it is. I've been in this business 32 years. My job is to try and find the optimal trades. Now, my track record at GMI has been that. I've got 19 years of track record longer than anybody else in the business. And it's also been the best track record of probably all time in any newsletter. And there's been some shitty years in there as well. And the same with ProMacro. And I can't choose my trades based on you, but you can choose your trades based on what I say and say, I don't like crypto, but maybe I can translate that to gold because I understand his debasement argument.

34:39Or I don't like technology stocks, but maybe I want to buy copper because I can see the EV play. So I'm not there to give you what you want. I'm there to give you what you need. So hopefully, that answers the question. And I don't know why you're opposed to crypto. Why would you be it's the best performing asset in all recorded history? Every three years, so in this four-year cycle, three years out of the four years, crypto is the best performing asset class on earth. The fourth year, it's the worst. Three years, best performing asset class, fourth year, it's the worst. Three years, the best performing asset class, four years, the worst.

35:16This year, this is the year one of the three, best performing asset class on earth. And each time you have that down year, you're going higher and higher and higher. The performance says everything. Are you choosing to be poor? Because that's what you do when you say you don't want crypto. Yes, it's volatile. I get it. It's not for everybody. I do get it. I'm being facetious. But look, I really, really think you should do the work. If Dan Druckenmiller, Paul Teodaf Jones, George Soros, Lewis Bacon, all of these guys, if Stevie Cohen, all of these people, all trade crypto, these are all the great macro gods, and they understand the game here.

36:02Anyway, that's my whole thing there. Joe Brady, Joe, I hope life in Boston is good. I wish I had a martini, one of my faves, but not today. Sorry, Joe, I'll drink to you.

36:21TrillionX macro. Ralph, what do you think of an equity barbell portfolio made of tech and energy stocks in your scenario? Do you think energy is going to outperform technology? I mean, I get your point. You need a lot more energy for all of this, but I think it gets solved in different ways. And yes, of course, energy stocks will go up when we go into crypto summer, because crypto summer is rising growth. Energy usage goes up, and it all works fine. I just think it underperforms. I mean, just run every chart of any other sector versus technology over the last 20 years, 30 years, everything underperforms.

37:01And if you run any other chart in technology against crypto, it all underperforms crypto. So I've become that bell curve I keep talking about. I've become the moron on the left, or maybe the wizard on the right, the Jedi. But I've just got rid of all that noise in the middle. What am I trying to do here? I'm trying to capture the biggest macro trend of all time. And the best way of doing it is buy the stuff that goes up the most and hold on to it for dear life and add into any sell off. That is the single, simplest investing strategy I can possibly give you. And it will make you more money than any other.

37:44And you might say, I don't want to live with the volatility, then use the business cycle. When the business cycle peaks, you get out. I've proven to myself that was suboptimal. I didn't make as much money doing that as I had by buying and holding and adding into the dips. Eric, the scientist, Eric, it's good to have somebody here knows what they're talking about. RAOUL PAL, I presume you are a scientist. Hi, Raoul. I hear people looking at recent bottom pattern in RSM saying they think the recent upturn was a false breakout, maybe due to a disinflationary trend to boost it, and they think we'll have another leg lower, double-dip manufacturing recession.

38:20From our forward-looking indicators, that is not the case. And I have gone through RSM cycles since 1990, I mean, lived them, been in markets for them, and every single fucking one, everyone said it's going to be a double dip. And not one has been. 2001 was a bit because of the 9-11. So Eric, I don't see it in the forward-looking stuff. I do see that the forward-looking financial conditions index slowed down as bond yields did the last leg higher and the dollar did the last leg higher. That will manifest itself into markets at some points. Why we saw the NASDAQ correct, markets correct. Maybe there's a bit more of that.

38:58A double dip earnings recession, nobody cares. Again, I know it's really hard for people to understand. Don't listen to me, I'm a moron. Just listen to Stan Drucker-Miller. Do not invest on today's information. It will lose you money. You invest 6, 12, 18 months ahead. Where is it going to be in 6, 12, or 18 months? 6, 12, or 18 months, are people going to buy more cars or less cars? use more technology or less technology, buy more oil or less oil, the answer is bloody clear. That's what economic growth does. Please don't invest in today. It's the biggest mistake everybody makes in markets. Jorge Lazarte, he's having Estrella beer.

39:45Estrella is from Barcelona, a fine beer. I like it as an ice cold canya, which is a small glass of beer they have in Spain. Again, you serve it with some toasted almonds or whatever on a hot day. It's like it's epic, but it's a really small glass and really cold. It's just one of the great ways. Ben, morning from Australia. Morning, Ben. I hope you've got a drink in your hand like a true Aussie. Rich Dowdell, cheers from Charleston. Thank you. Can you recommend a home builder in Cayman? I used Phoenix construction. They were great. And I redid the house here. And I've used Edgewater Development who built my house in Little Cayman.

40:20Quentin, can coin hit a new all-time high within 25? I'm not a profit, but probably, well, most likely. Coinbase or Tesla? I don't fucking know. This is a hard question. Probably Coinbase. I do think Tesla goes up a lot. I think Coinbase probably goes up more. And they're both really high-quality companies. Hey, everyone. We're going to take another quick break and hear a word from our partners. We'll be right back.

40:47RAOUL PAL, the NASDAQ has remained in low growth territory, and the NASDAQ has been pricing 55, 60 ISM. ISM not likely to recover, tech traders are short. What makes you think the ISM doesn't recover if all the forward-looking indicators suggest that's where it's going? You're living in two different time horizons. That's the problem. The ISM now is the bottom, the forward-looking indicators. You can do new orders minus inventories. It's the simplest one, and that's screaming higher. Within three, four months, ISAM will be above 50, and everyone's going to go, oh, my god. Then they'll start saying, oh, my god, inflation's coming back.

41:25It won't. It'll keep falling. Catch everybody by surprise. It just happens every bloody time.

41:34Francois Bezziwello, can't pronounce it, sorry. Hi, Raoul. Now, when do we get a peek into the exponentialist portfolio? I'm not sure. I think it's next week. I'm not sure. Julian Bittle is putting it together for me. The exponentialist is not a trading portfolio. It's not like you get in pro macro. It's not going to be like, we're going to add to Tesla here, we're going to take profits there, this and that. It's going to be a pretty set it and forget it, occasionally tweak it, ETF style, simple, anybody can do it, follow along portfolio. That's the idea there. It's not a trading thing. The exponentialist is really about getting us to think deeper, understand more, and participate in this trade.

42:15I think of these things as if you could afford to, you should have both, pro macro plus the exponentialist. Because if you really are interested in this, there's too much to learn. I'm not good enough to do it all in pro macro. So I can just cover the top parts of it. David's much smarter, much deeper in the space than I am. So it's not really a trading service. But the idea is we all ride the wave, and that includes the wave of profitability that we will make from it. And then business cycle analysis, because a lot of people don't like dealing with the volatility at the downside of the cycle.

42:49I generally don't mind it, but we'll see. Frank Anthony, Raoul, is there anything that will make you sell your crypto? No, my wife bloody tries. Never going to happen. And I've literally, just to be completely transparent, since I started buying aggressively Defensively, in April 2020, I've not sold a single thing. Yes, I've switched around from one thing to another, not including stablecoins. I own none of those. I have full crypto exposure, and all I have done is add. I added as much as I possibly could last year with any free cash flow I had. David Hammerstrand, hello and good evening. Good evening and hello.

43:29I've been thinking about your X handle, Twitter. Are you boasting yourself, or is it the macro version? RAL going to make it, or RAL global macro investor? Listen, that Twitter handle comes from 2014, and that was global macro investor. RAL, a global macro investor. The we're going to make it didn't come till afterwards, but it works for me too. JC, long-time viewer, cross-platforms. I was not participating in the cross-platforms. Just go and sign up to Real Vision. is bloody cheapskate. Well, you are. You're on there now. So I appreciate. Sorry, yes, you are on that platform. You're not like the people watching on YouTube who should go and just sign up for the free version.

44:12We talked about it before, realvision.com. It's free. You get all of this cool platform stuff. JC, I was not participating in previous runs, they're active now. Would you recommend selling around the peak or take the gains to reinvest at the bottom in 26 or beyond or simply hold until new highs? Right, I'm going to tell you story. I keep telling this story. Look, it's horses for courses, as the English expression goes. I first bought Bitcoin in 2013 at$200. My thesis was, this is a 10-year bet, and I think it's worth a million dollars, but I'm going to discount myself by 90 % for the moron factor.

44:51Therefore, it's worth$100 ,000, and it's at$200. I said, this is the best macro bet we will ever be given and the best macro bet we have ever been given. That was 2013. I was pretty impressed if I look back because it was exactly the case. I rode it up and it went up 5x from where I bought it. Then it collapsed 85%. I'm like, fine, it's an option for me. It's a 10-year bet. It then ran up 10x into 2017. Four years later, I'm up 10x. And I got a bit nervous in the space because of forking walls and other stuff. And I stupidly forgot the initial premise of the trade, which was this 10-year bet, you just run it.

45:37Because when the P &L stacks up, you start thinking, well, really, do I want to give this back? But you've got to learn how to do that if you're running long-duration time horizons. So I sold out at 2 ,000, 2 ,500, and it went up to 20 ,000 in that run. And people were laughing at me. And I was like, look, I've made 10x. Thank you very much. I've done this really, really well. And then I watched it and watched it and watched it. And then eventually got the entry point to get back in again, which was April 2020. And it fell back down. I think I got in 6 ,500 and bought it from 6 ,500 to about 12 ,000 and kept buying it.

46:13And it rocketed higher and much bigger position than when I first started. OK, great. I'm going to still own it today. It's pulled back, back up again. Then, okay, so I went back and looked, if I just kept my original investment and not touched it, even with the market down from its high 50%, I'd have made five times as much money. And my bet in 2020 was a lot bigger than it was back in 2013. And then here's the real crux. and me and backwards baseball cat Brian were talking about this before we came on, is like, if you just remember that log channel and the big cyclical up and downs, which is the economic cyclicality, if you just buy within 30 % of the low, which is not that difficult, 30%, don't even have to be bottom ticking it.

47:16I just calculated I got 30 % near the low. So if you'd have just added my original bet, which wasn't that big, it would have been 25 times as much performance. And that was the lesson learned. That's why I didn't sell a single thing, and I kept buying. My duration really for this is, I will probably take some off the table in this trade. but my duration, my real bet is to run most of it until 2030. That's always been the game, and it remains the game for me. Obviously, peel off some lifestyle gains, do whatever you need to do, appease the wife, that kind of stuff. But I think 2030 is the horizon.

48:07But you do you, I do me. I have a stomach for risk. I've been doing this for a long time. I actually enjoy the risk of crypto. I enjoy the shit throwing when it goes down 70%. I'm buying like crazy, and everybody else is like, you bastard, it's terrible. It's the worst investment ever. And then you go back three years later, and it's like 10x where they were all selling it. It's a ridiculous business, but it's a lot of fun, as long as you understand the game that you're in. If your game is you need those profits, for goodness sake, take the bloody profits. Okay, more questions. How are we doing on time?

48:4412 minutes left. Andre, why, of course, I can't pronounce it properly. Did you taste some wine, white wine from South Tyrol? Yeah, Austrian wine. Fantastic. Long gone are the days when we were using it for antifreeze, if you remember that. I used to go skiing in Altbach every year in Austria. It was always a beautiful place until I discovered Cormier in Italy and never went back. Slimy Tom, Raoul, your wife is from the States. Is she ever taking you to White Castle? No, she is from New Jersey, so maybe she should have done, but no, I have not gone to White Castle. Matthew McCann, thoughts on Gunnlack's prediction of a recession in H1 2024?

49:25Again, it doesn't fucking matter. It's all priced in. Nobody cares. The markets don't care. The markets are looking forwards. Everyone's obsessed by the recession now. Now, yeah, it's difficult if you're running a business, it's difficult in that respect. But for markets, nobody cares, because it's already been priced in. I know people can't get their heads around this concept. It's like, everyone's like, oh, my God, there's going to be a recession, the market's going to go down, the yield curve's going to un-invert, and the market's going to collapse. It's like, tell us something we don't know.

50:08It all happened. That's why crypto went down 80%. That's why technology went down 40 % or so. Andre, hey, Raoul. Julian Brigden was wrong again on NASDAQ. Will he be again at the beginning of next year? Yes, of course. He's a boomer. I like to bait Julian like he likes to bait me.

50:34G Blackburn, hey, Raoul. neat, wheated bourbon here. Sounds good. I'm not a huge bourbon drinker, but I appreciate it. I do. It just doesn't appreciate me. It gives me a splitting migraine if I'm not careful, particularly because I always get brave. I drink red wine over a dinner party, then somebody brings out the rum or the bourbon or the scotch. I'm like, oh, delicious. Anything more than a glass, I'm not good. That's an aging thing. So even my rum drinking days are pretty much behind. I have to be really, really bloody careful. Johannes, Dom Perignon 85. Okay, it's been a special week. It has been a pretty good week, Johannes.

51:13I have a lot of the Dom Perignon 96 that I bought for my 40th birthday when I was still not 40. I put it in storage, and it ended up being voted the best year for Dom Perignon in history. I bought it cheap, and I had it in storage, and then I opened a whole bunch of it for my 50th birthday, I've still got some here at the house. And it's bloody amazing. David Black, Raoul, I'm an uncultured philistine Canadian. Well, it just makes you nice, though. Is there any way to use your massive crypto games to spend your way out of savagery? Yeah, most of the Canadians, they moved down to the Cayman Islands.

51:51It's a start. It's not the epicenter of civilization. What they say is civilization starts where the olive tree grows. They don't grow olive trees here, so that's the general idea of civilization. Percy Rosales, hey, from Philly. Raoul, thoughts on crypto infrastructure projects like Chainlink and Graph? I'm also still waiting on that rum bottle I won last year. I don't know why you haven't got it. You need to write to us on the platform. I figure out the hard thing is bloody shipping rum around the world. Everyone's got import duties. You can't do it, stuff like that. I'm not the next tier down crypto guy.

52:33I'm the macro guy. Chainlink looks great to me. The graph looks amazing. Everything looks amazing. That's why I'm a shit investor in smaller tokens and VC because everything looks amazing. Sorry, I can't add value. The only value I can give is alt season is upon us. This is just the start. After that, all sorts of stuff goes up. Okay, final refill, because we haven't got long to go. My wife's going to kill me. Well, actually, she's out tonight, so it's not that bad.

53:03J &J, Ray Dalio owns some crypto, apparently. Don't get me started on Ray Dalio, but I also know about the crypto stuff.

53:14Are uranium stocks tech stocks? Great question. It's all the same thesis, copper, uranium. It's all the same thing. is like, we need cheaper sources of energy fast. So I have no problem with that bet at all. Although it's very, very retail. I worry that the whole Sprott retail thing, that somebody's going to get rinsed in this. But overall, the thesis, I think, is right. Simon Williams. Well, I know you're an exponential gains guy, not a yield guy. Fuck, I hate yields. Would you count in staking sales through a ledger? 7 % compounding yields on an exponential asset is pretty compelling. Is it though?

53:54Look, I'm sorry, I'm such a macro moron. I can't do yield. It's like, okay, Sol goes up 7 % in a day. Why do you care about 7 % yield? Yes, if you're holding it for 20 years, and you're an extra compound, but even that 7 % compounding, what does it matter? versus the existential risk that something goes wrong with that staking and you lose your bag. This is what I don't get. I've never done it in macro markets. I just don't think yield's not my play, but other people do. And they do it very well. So yeah, I just can't do it. I can't do it. That pissed me off as well. That really, really upset me, that whole Luna thing.

54:45I have never invested in it. I tried to explain that something like all of these that are native staking tokens, so like ETH, Solana, Luna at the time, those things are emerging market local bonds. You can always pay the yield. but it doesn't mean the currency doesn't go to zero. Argentina can always pay the interest on Argentinian denominated, peso denominated debt, which is whether you want to own the peso or not, which is why I said in that whole bloody lunar thing, if you want to own this currency. It's like, anyway, it drives me nuts. I can't stand yield, which is probably stupid for me. I get it.

55:37Nico Santini, hey, Raoul, what's ever happened to NFTs? They're in the background versus tokens. Yeah, this is the lag effect. Trust me, it's all coming alive. I'm all over the NFT space right now. I'm not adding stuff, but it's all happening. So I'm super confident. Brian Clark, what's the plan with the RV Collective season three? I know everyone keeps asking us, can you just hold off? Can you do it for a bit? It's like 100 bucks. I don't know why 200 bucks, whatever the numbers are. They're not expensive, but for some reason, people want us to wait. So we wait. And that's the community feedback.

56:11Metap, Auscam. Hey, Raoul. Great to appreciate you doing the session. In your conversation with Jordy Visser, love Jordy. He has talked about the end of the business cycle. So then in your conversation with Dan Tapiero, you talked about if there's a change in the volatility, about if there's a change in the volatility of the price of Bitcoin or E. I don't really get your question, but I'm fascinated by Geordie's thesis about the end of the business cycle. I hold some sympathy for it. It doesn't mean you don't have a cycle, but it means the cycles are even less catastrophic or recessionary or whatever it is.

56:48I don't know. We have to wait and see. But that really struck me, that whole Geordie conversation. Okay, I'm flipping down because there's so many comments.

57:02Stephane Carnot, I know that you prefer crypto. Do you think gold should break 2 ,000? Yes, I very much do. If I hadn't discovered technology in crypto, I would be saying gold is one of the best bets around right now, best risk-award bets for the next 12 months. It looks absolutely amazing. Curtis, port and cheese, very civilized. Given the sole ecosystem bullishness and the consistent outperformance of mean coins or cult coins, thoughts? I don't know. I don't know. I'm just sticking with my bets. My bets are sole ETH. I'll just stick with that. And I've got a whole bunch of other stuff, shrapnel, left from last time around, everything from XRP to Doge to Avalanche to Matic, you know, stuff.

57:49But it's all small. Brett, cloudy bay, savvy, but early down here. Yeah, Kiwis. New Zealand, it's almost socially acceptable. You are in New Zealand. What else are you going to do, drink or flirt with sheep? There's not much else to do.

58:12Okay. Raoul, do you have any favorite tunes to play to kick off the weekend? Depends what mood I'm in. And my general go-to at this moment, I have a really broad, deep music taste. But there's something about the music of Jungle that I absolutely love. It's kind of funky. It's cool. It's clean. It's just great. So all of the Jungle albums, yeah, just spectacular. So Jungle. That's what I'll give you for the weekend. and I might do that. As I said, my wife's out, might jack up the jungle, cook myself some food. Okay. Final questions for coming in. Eric, on the yield issue in crypto, I agree with Raoul.

59:03I got my first singed in the lunar problem and learned the important lesson, counterparty risk matters. Now I hold in a ledger. If I'm fine, I'm piling for yields, I'm over invested. Yeah, I think you're All right. Ben Hartman, thank you for Real Vision. It's the best money I've ever spent. I started equally weighted Ethan's soul and Solana's VastNet performance. Do you think ETH is still a performer? I'm looking at AVAX. Okay. Looking at AVAX seems to be a layer one for gaming and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You are experiencing the classic medical condition known as FOMO, as the French would say.

59:43and FOMO means that you are seeing other bags that are not your own, outperforming your own bags and you think, I must catch that runaway train and I too can become rich like those people and you will lose your ass. Not that Avalanche is not good but you will always buy late. Have conviction in what you have Observe over time, not over the last two weeks, because Avalanche has gone up more than your bag of ETH, and ask yourself the question, is ETH going to go up over the next two years? And will it go up a significant amount? Could it just be lagging? Could there be a big switcher going on, selling ETH and buying Sol?

1:00:36Could that be over soon? Could the ETH ETF change that? Stick with your conviction. Do what's true to you, but don't do FOMO. It's mentally retarded. It will lose you money. I've learnt it. I have a bag of shrapnel in a wallet or two to prove that FOMO. I still have the small bag of Solana that I bought at$189. I have many of these fine tokens that I bought because somebody else was making more money than me. I've learned to stop doing it. Look, honestly, it's serious advice. Do not FOMO. Do not use leverage. Eric, Chateauneuf-du-Pap and Marcona almonds toasted at home with sea salt. Eric, you're learning.

1:01:26You have graduated to the Real Vision culture tier. And I will be your guide to help you through the next part of that. Next part will be music. We need to get your music taste in the right place as well. Okay, final question because I've overrun. FUMO, as the French would say. Exactly. Love It Jungle. Yes, Jungle. Honestly, it's brilliant. I cannot express. I mean, Heavy California is just a phenomenal song. All the first album is brilliant. All the second album is brilliant. Some of the third album is exceptional. Still cheering through the fourth one. They are just so good. OK, I think we are.

1:02:15Okay, Martin, yours is the last question. Martin Legate or Legate or Legate, I presume because he's asking about UK investors, it's Legate. Martin Legate. Martin, what ETFs for UK investors? QQQs? Yeah, this is a real fucking problem. And I've been talking to a few people about it today. They're like, oh, invest in the stock market. UK stock market has literally gone nowhere for 20 years, nor is the European market. European tech stocks, UK tech stocks, it's nothing. So you have to take currency risk by investing in the US. So you got to hope your currency keeps going down. Good thing is the dollar's in a secular bull market.

1:03:02And tech stocks go up so much that even if you're in the cyclical down phase in the dollar, which I think we're now starting, you're still outperform, but you're still fighting that trend of the dollar going down, but tech stocks need to go out more. It's not bloody easy. I mean, there is limited opportunity for European investors. Well, European investors just buy bloody LVMH, it just seems to go to the moon every single day because it's scarce supply assets. Honestly, it's the same game. UK investors are not easy. I'm sorry for that. Listen, guys, I hope you've had some fun. You've had a drink.

1:03:38You've learned a bit. If you are a Real Vision subscriber, Black Friday, 50 % discount. Don't fuck this up. This is your opportunity to level up and get yourself ready, get yourself close to wisdom. 2024, 2025, going to be banner macro years, opportunities galore. If you're watching this on YouTube, X, or anywhere else, listen, go to the new platform, realvision.com, sign up for free, just put your email address. You can use the AI, the charting, the analytics, the questions, the map of the world where you can speak to people. It's all there for you. We've built it for you, everything. Have an epic weekend.

1:04:22Enjoy your drinks. And good luck out there. Take care.

1:04:34People are going to lose their minds. This is a moment in history unlike anything humanity's gone through. It's a very different world for humans to come. Take a step back and see the broad picture, which is the way all these technologies are interlinked. Because this is all about exponentiality, and humans can't think in exponential terms. How consequential do you want to say machine intelligence is? It's almost certainly as consequential as writing. How long did writing take to disseminate through the human population? You know, hundreds, thousands of years. and we're dealing with it now on a scale of months.

1:05:08But in this kind of world, you're compounding 100 % growth every year and the numbers become astronomical. AI is going to spot patterns in the world that were just completely invisible to us. Even if you think that the AI and the robots are your demise, you might as well bloody invest in them and make some money out of it. If not, you're just going to be angry man shaking your fists at the clouds.

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