Fed Chair Drama, U.S. Retail Sales, and Crypto Legislation Progress: PALvatar Market Recap, July 17 2025

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0:47Ah, the magic of television and AI. Even though Raoul is away, you still get to enjoy him today. Firstly, thanks to an interview he, the real Raoul, did earlier with Franklin Templeton's Sandy Call that is available today for free on the Real Vision website. It's an amazing sneak peek into how institutions are preparing for the decentralised economy of the future. And secondly, you also have me, Palvatar, Raoul's AI avatar, keeping you company with the added benefit of recapping the latest market headlines. I won't offer his views or level of analysis, but this is a close second. So let's jump into it.

1:24Fans of drama are surely following closely the fate of US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is under increasing bombardment by President Donald Trump. Reports suggesting that he might fire Powell initially led to a sell-off in the dollar and increased demand for safe haven assets like gold as investors worried about the Fed's independence. However, Trump's later comments indicating that such an action was unlikely helped stabilise markets. I think it's safe to say it's not going to be the last episode of this drama. One of President Trump's biggest gripes with Jay Powell is that he's been reluctant to cut interest rates because of the impact of tariffs.

2:01One piece of news that might sway his thinking on the matter is yesterday's producer Price Index. Both the headline rate as well as core, which strips out food and energy, came unchanged in June from the previous month. That confounded expectations for a small increase in both prints and suggests minimal impact from the tariff uncertainty. On a year-over-year basis, the headline PPI was up 2.3%, compared with 2.7 % in May, hitting the lowest level since September 2024. The core PPI was at 2.6 % on an annual basis, which was the smallest gain since July 2024 Looking at some economic data releasing today, we're getting US retail sales and initial jobless claims There was good news in the Eurozone, where the consumer price inflation has been confirmed at 2 % year-on-year for June slightly up from May, but bang on the ECB's target The UK was much more of a damp squib as the unemployment unexpectedly rose to 4.7%, boosting expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of England as wage growth also showed signs of slowing down.

3:09Another place where unemployment has gone up is Australia, where June's rate of 4.3 % is the highest since late 2021. The Australian dollar and bond yields dipped on the news. Finally, the so-called crypto week was back on track in the US Congress after a marathon, nine-hour procedural vote pushed through a slew of crypto legislation. The final vote could take place as soon as today. Bitcoin is taking a breather today, but altcoins continue to carry the mantle with double-digit gains for several meme coins and majors like ETH, which has hit the highest level since January. That's it for today.

3:47I'll see you again tomorrow. Sign B en complement