Fed Cut Hopes, Manufacturing Contraction, and Bitcoin's Resurgence: PALvatar Market Recap, October 2 2025

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1:34are beta testing our new website, which will be rolled out in the coming weeks. We're super excited for what we have in store for you, so watch this space. Now, before we look at the news, the usual disclaimer that what I say is not meant to be taken as the views of the real Raoul. With that out of the way, let's begin. Shutdown? What shutdown? Global stocks are up despite the US government impasse, which has put the release of non-farm payrolls tomorrow in serious jeopardy. Initial jobless claims have already got the chop today. We did, however, get private surveys, namely the latest ISM manufacturing PMI and ADP employment.

2:12Let's start with ISM. We all know how closely it's watched by Raoul and Julian Bittle. The September manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, slightly ahead of expectations and better than the 48.7 registered in the previous month. However, as the reading is below 50, it means the sector continues to contract, albeit less so. A separate measure of manufacturing PMI from S &P Global, which has generally come in higher than ISM over the past several months, remained unchanged at 52, firmly in the expansion territory. It seems that bad news is good news for investors. ADP reported a surprising decline of 32 ,000 private sector jobs in September against expectations of an increase and revised August's growth to a small drop.

3:02All of that is reinforcing speculation that further Federal Reserve rate cuts are imminent. Markets are currently 95 % certain the Fed will cut by 50 basis points across its two remaining meetings this year. US stocks closed higher on Wednesday and were higher still today. One notable piece of news is the announcement from Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway that it has reached a deal to buy OxyChem for$9.7 billion. It's Berkshire's biggest deal in three years. In the euro area, the unemployment rate edged up to 6.3 % from a record low of 6.2%, contrary to forecasts expecting stability at previous levels.

3:42Equity markets shrugged off the news, with gains across the continent propelling them to record highs. Chinese stock exchanges were closed for a holiday. Oil prices fell to a four-month low amidst expectations that OPEC Plus might add more supply than previously planned when the group meets this weekend. Bitcoin is leading the crypto recovery as it closed in on$119 ,000 for the first time in two months in early afternoon trading in Europe. One major beneficiary is BlackRock, whose IBIT has entered the top 20 biggest ETFs by assets, according to Bloomberg's Eric Balchunas Bloomberg is also reporting that Thailand's market regulator wants to allow the expansion of domestic ETFs beyond Bitcoin to altcoins However, spare a thought for Bitcoin miners, as Glassnode data reported by Coindesk shows that the hash rate, or Bitcoin mining difficulty in plain English, has reached the most challenging level yet And if you were not bullish enough, Robinhood CEO told the Token 2049 crypto conference in Singapore that the tokenization of real-world assets is an unstoppable freight train.

4:51That's a good note to end on, don't you think? As always, thanks for listening and see you again tomorrow.